Even though Grassley may not retire…
It is never too early to start thinking about it, and I would like to put my top ten (and a dark horse) up here and make it an on going forum-investigation until we get some more concrete evidence.
1. Bruce Braley- As a sitting congressmen with his freshmen achievements, Id give him my nod for number one.
2. Ed Fallon- A very strong base in the Des Moines and surrounding areas, might not be enough to get past Grassley, but if it is King or Latham instead, he'd have a good crack.
3. Dave Loebsack- As a sitting congressman, he has at the very least his own district to draw from.
4. Tom Vilsack- The presidental race went arye pretty quickly and If I know Tom the way I think I do, than I dont think he is ready to retire.
5. Daryl Beal- A great state senator that has an ultra firm base of support through central Iowa and can take a lot of the rural vote away from the republican candidate.
6. Patty Judge- As the Number 2 democrat in state politics, she brings name recognition, as well as a healthy relationship with state party leaders.
7. Frank Cownie- As mayor of the biggest city in Iowa, would definitely be able to do damage in this area, but is not a well known figure else where.
8. Staci Appel- Definitely a change of pace from Grassley and depending on the thoughts of the nation, and who is elected president in November, maybe the best shot we have. Would also draw the womens vote.
9. Kevin McCarthy- Hasnt exactly made sprinter strides in the house, but has done the best he can with a mixed bag of moderate and blue dog dems, not to mention the likes of ultra bigot Chris Rants making sure the house is divided and does not work together.
10. Rob Hubler- So the odds are stacked against him winning this election against the looney Steve King, and he may be a little old too. But I think that King's comments will get him more votes in this race than anyone expects and western Iowa is definitely where we need to get our votes from.
And…Drum roll please… my dark horse candidate…
Beth Wessel-Kroeschell- Although not the most well known challanger, she is a GREAT representative, a hard fighter, and a brilliant campaigner. If she can get the ball rolling early and often, shore up support, and get the funds rolling in, she just might do it
Now I'm done, dont be shy, let me know what you think!
17 Comments
I'm hoping he will get bored
with being in the minority and retire.
But if he sticks it out for another term, I doubt any prominent Democrat will want to run against him.
Then my bet would be on Chet Culver to try to get his dad’s old Senate seat back in 2016…
desmoinesdem Wed 30 Apr 8:41 PM
I hope he does retire
But I hope we get somebody decent. Its the Republican’s job to throw two-bit candidates at there opponents, not the democrats… If all else false I’ll draft you DM dem!
secondtonone Wed 30 Apr 8:48 PM
ROTFL
I’m just the kind of candidate who can win a statewide election in Iowa: a Jewish woman who lived outside the state for 15 years!
desmoinesdem Wed 30 Apr 10:16 PM
Fallon
really ed fallon is on your list. Well i guess that would be the only office left for him to run for after he loses this primary. I think Braley is a good choice because he is proving to be popular and effective. However, correct me if im wrong, but i believe hes young enough to wait until grassley does decide to retire. Culver is also almost a positive for running for the senate one day, he is definatly a big guy with big ambition, maybe even the white house?
therealworld Thu 1 May 7:15 PM
Interesting list....
My thoughts on each:
1. I think he’s young enough to stay away from it and wait. He’s got the best future of any of Iowa’s Congressmen, so.
2. Not sure he can win a Senate election.
3. I like him, but I don’t think he’s a Senator.
4. I think he’s going to run, even if it means challenging Grassley. His Cabinet chances are gone with HRC fading, and he won two pretty strong (+5 points) victories statewide.
5. I think he could.
6. No way. She’ll be 67 in 2010, and I don’t think she has that great of political skills.
7. Does he have a machine in Des Moines at all?
8. I don’t disagree with anything you said.
9. I think he’s very ambitious and pretty sharp. If he’s not in the mix in 2010 he will be eventually.
10. I don’t disagree with anything you said.
amcsepboe Thu 1 May 10:21 PM
I largely agree with you
Braley is young enough to wait until Grassley retires. I would like him to stay in the House and develop more legislative experience before running for another office.
I am skeptical that Vilsack would jump in against Grassley. If Grassley retires, however, you can bank on Vilsack running for this seat.
Cownie doesn’t have a machine, and I don’t see him as a strong candidate statewide. He is doing a lot of good things in Des Moines–he should stay here and work on those.
I wouldn’t want to see Staci Appel run for U.S. Senate in 2010. She was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2006, wasn’t she? That means she would have to give up her seat at the statehouse to take on Grassley. If he retires, I doubt she would compete in a primary against Vilsack (who put her husband on the Iowa Supreme Court).
My biggest disagreement with you is that I do NOT think Kevin McCarthy has “done the best he can” in the Iowa House. I strongly disagree with the House leadership’s decisions about what bills to push hard and what bills to let die.
desmoinesdem Fri 2 May 5:03 AM
My .02
My guess is that Grassley won’t retire until he can turn the keys over to his grandson, Pat. That could happen as soon as 2010, but my guess is 2016 is more likely.
I could see Braley as a major contender also.
I think Fallon’s best play (if he doesn’t win the primary) is to sit tight and wait for Boswell to either retire or get redistricted out of office–then run for an open House seat.
Loebsack’s district is probably safe, and I think he likes being in the House…don’t see him running.
Vilsack could definitely make a run, but honestly…why hasn’t he already? This would have been his year! It’s looking like a good year for Dems and he could have done some joint campaigning with Hillary/benefited from insane media coverage during the caucus season.
I feel bad, but I don’t know who Daryl Beal is. Low name recognition?
Judge? No. My guess is she’ll retire after two/three Culver terms.
Cownie? No. With his big Des Moines base, he’d be a shoo-in to replace Boswell though.
Appel? I don’t know. She’d need to raise her profile a lot between now and then.
McCarthy? Maybe. It all depends on whether he can keep the progressive base. It sounds like they’re not so happy with him. 😉
Hubler. No, not enough name recognition–even in western Iowa.
Finally, my dark horse:
Atty. Gen. Tom Miller! Well connected, well known and respected. And he could win! He’d be 66 in 2010, not exactly a young man, but Grassley will be 76. Any one else have a dark horse pick?
And not to be morbid, but this thread got me thinking. Several of our congressmen aren’t exactly spring chickens. (Boswell and Grassley are both 74, Harkin’s 68) What’s the Iowa law regarding replacing congressmen mid-term? Is there a special election or an appointment to fill the term?
american007 Fri 2 May 1:57 PM
I imagine Vilsack had his eyes set higher...
I have to think Vilsack was practically a guarantee to have a Cabinet position in a Clinton administration. I think I’d rather be Secretary of Agriculture with considerable input to the presidency than freshman Senator.
I’d say that was his gambit, and it probably isn’t going to pay off.
amcsepboe Fri 2 May 2:38 PM
Iowa Senators have more enduring influence than Ag Secretaries...
“I think I’d rather be Secretary of Agriculture with considerable input to the presidency than freshman Senator.”
Have to disagree with this.. can anyone here name a Secretary of Agriculture who has had more total influence, in terms of farm policies, than Harkin or Grassley?
Being a Senator from Iowa carries an incredible amount of AG influence. And other powers that I think Vilsack would handle quite graciously.
jep Fri 2 May 9:45 PM
Job Security...
I think Senator would be a better job, personally.
Job security is the big thing. Supposing that he was named Ag. Secretary and stayed in the President’s good graces…he’d still likely only be in office for 8 years. No doubt the next administration, Dem or Rep, would replace him.
Anymore, getting elected Senator is a job for life. Now, he could run after being Ag. Secretary–but he could just as easily miss his chance in the meantime.
And he probably doesn’t have much chance of getting tapped for an Obama administration, but you never know.
american007 Sat 3 May 1:16 PM
Henry A. Wallace
It was a different era, but Henry A. Wallace was the most influential Secretary of Agriculture of all time. He ran the Ag Dept. from 1933-1941, and then went on to become Vice-President under FDR.
corncam Sat 3 May 5:05 PM
Agreed...
Still have my Grandad’s old Wallace’s Farmer collection somewhere…
But in this day and age, the AG secretary is much more a figurehead than in Wallace’s day.
And we can see where that got us… factory farms and crop monoculture.
Am I mistaken, or wasn’t Wallace instrumental in getting all the hedgerows and windbreaks planted?
Imagine our current AG sec even suggesting such a worthwhile proposal, he’d be fire for showing any environmental sympathy.
And I would guess Vilsack might be more qualified to be the Education chief.
I would also guess our next Ag secretary will be from Illinois.
jep Sun 4 May 2:15 PM
Fair points...
I was thinking of the degree to which Vilsack would have influence on a Clinton administration. It’s pretty obvious he would be a trusted adviser.
Not that it is likely to matter. I think Clinton is out of the mix, and I think Vilsack runs for Senate in 2010. I think he’d make a better Senator than Governor, personally. It’s more in line with his personality. And I thought he was a pretty decent governor.
amcsepboe Mon 5 May 1:04 PM
I would like to see him in the Senate
but I don’t think he will take on Chuck Grassley. If Grassley retires, Vilsack is in, but otherwise I don’t see him taking that kind of a risk.
desmoinesdem Mon 5 May 3:39 PM
Why not...
McKinley Bailey 🙂
It’d be nice, I suppose, but maybe in 12-15 years
secondtonone Fri 2 May 4:50 PM
Vilsack!
Boy, howdy, that would be a ticket!
No offense to Ed or Bruce, but if anyone on this list is qualified to represent Iowa in the Senate it is the Vilsacks.
And I don’t mean that sarcastically, Mrs. Vilsack could probably beat her husband in the primary, so sending them as a team would be a very efficient move.
jep Fri 2 May 9:37 PM
I think Vilsack would be an excellent senator
He is a very smart, hard-working policy wonk. I’ll take that over many of the grandstanders in the Senate.
desmoinesdem Fri 2 May 11:14 PM