Charles Gaba is a health care policy wonk, advocate, and blogger who mixes data analysis with snark at ACASignups.net, where this article first appeared. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, Mastodon, Spoutible, or X/Twitter.

Over the past couple of months I’ve compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in Affordable Care Act plans (Qualified Health Plans and Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/Children’s Health Insurance Program coverage (both traditional and via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services and Advantage) at the Congressional district levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid and the ACA) from the federal budget proposal House Republicans approved in late February, I’m going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional district’s total population is at risk of losing health care coverage.

All four Republicans who represent Iowa in the U.S. House voted for the budget blueprint.

The only Iowa Republican in Congress who did not receive Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement!” in 2022 has been working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to him.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has stuck close to Trump—literally and figuratively—as she prepares for what could be a tough 2026 primary campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Fifteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Nick Conway is a Geographic Information Systems Technician who lives in Seattle, Washington. He is a graduate of Grinnell College. Follow him on X/Twitter @Mill226 or on Bluesky @conwayni2.bsky.social.

Iowa has experienced one of the nation’s most dramatic political transformations since President Barack Obama carried the state for a second time in 2012. While Obama won 52.0 percent of Iowa’s presidential vote to Mitt Romney’s 46.2 percent (a roughly 6-point margin), by 2024 the state had become solidly Republican, with Donald Trump securing 55.7 percent to 42.5 percent for Kamala Harris (a 13-point margin).

Iowa’s 19 percentage point swing in presidential voting from 2012 to 2024 was the second-largest shift toward Republicans among all 50 states, surpassed only by Obama’s childhood home of Hawaii.

The transformation was particularly striking at the county level. Nearly a quarter of the 100 counties in the U.S. that showed the largest GOP gains from 2012 to 2024 are in Iowa.

Al Charlson is a North Central Iowa farm kid, lifelong Iowan, and retired bank trust officer.

I’m sure many readers can look back at their careers and think of certain years which stand out in red letters. 2008 is one of those years for me.

At that time our bank’s trust department held several commercial buildings in downtown Waverly in a fiduciary relationship. On June 9 I went downtown in my knee-high rubber boots. I was able to get into one of the buildings through the glass side entrance doors. The corner office was rented to a professional group, and I joined them in carrying files upstairs to the mezzanine. 

Every time we went out into the lobby to the stairs the water was a little higher on those glass entrance doors. It was eerie. We worked as long as we could.

A strong Democratic ground game wasn’t quite enough to overcome the partisan lean and spending disparity in Iowa House district 100.

Republican Blaine Watkins will be the next representative for the district covering most of Lee County, after he won the March 11 special election by a surprisingly narrow margin.

Unofficial results indicate that Watkins received 2,749 votes to 2,574 for Democrat Nannette Griffin (51.5 percent to 48.2 percent). Voters living in this area preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election by 62.2 percent to 35.4 percent, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of precinct-level results.

THE WINNING FORMULA FOR WATKINS

Griffin carried the early vote and two of the six precincts where polls were open on March 11: one in Fort Madison, where she has owned and operated a business for many years, and one in Keokuk. Watkins carried the other four election-day precincts by margins large enough to overcome Griffin’s advantage in absentee ballots. His best precinct was in Donnellson, where he grew up.

The only Iowa Republican legislator to lose his 2024 re-election bid has landed a job in the Trump administration—and he won’t need to move to Washington, DC.

Former State Senator Brad Zaun will be the administrator of the Small Business Administration’s Region 7, he announced to LinkedIn followers on March 6. In a statement published by the Des Moines Register, Zaun said he was “dedicated to boosting small businesses in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska by cutting red tape, expanding our reach, and providing essential resources.” He added, “My goal is a streamlined, ‘America First’ SBA that fuels free enterprise and regional prosperity.”

Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” continues to slash the federal workforce, but there will always be room for political appointees—especially those on good terms with President Donald Trump.

Third in a series on the new Iowa law that removed legal protection against discrimination for transgender and nonbinary Iowans, as well as any path for the state to officially recognize their gender identity.

Given the choice, most legislators will not cast a potentially career-ending vote—especially when they know the outcome isn’t riding on their decision.

But on February 27, five Republican members of the Iowa House voted against Senate File 418, the bill that laid the groundwork for future discrimination against transgender Iowans and others. A sixth GOP lawmaker (who left the capitol during the floor debate) later put a note in the House Journal to confirm he would have voted no.

These lawmakers come from different political backgrounds but have a couple of things in common. All represent heavily Republican areas, not swing districts—which means they are at greater risk of losing to a GOP primary challenger than to a Democrat in a general election. In addition, all have opposed at least one other high-profile bill the House approved during the past few years.

This post is mostly about the six Republicans who took a public stand against Senate File 418. I also discuss eight of their colleagues, who signaled they were uncomfortable with discrimination against transgender Iowans but eventually fell in line.

Second in a series on Iowa’s wide-ranging law that removed legal protection against discrimination for transgender and nonbinary Iowans, as well as any path for the state to officially recognize their gender identity.

Iowa Republicans made history in the worst way last week.

Effective July 1, 2025, the Iowa Civil Rights Act will no longer prohibit discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations, or credit on the basis of gender identity. The state of Iowa also will stop issuing birth certificates that reflect a transgender person’s gender identity, and will officially recognize separate-but-equal accommodations as lawful.

Republicans sped up the legislative process to pass Senate File 418 in both chambers on February 27, only seven days after the bill text became public.

The Iowa Senate approved the bill on a party-line vote of 33 to 15. Less than an hour later, the House passed the bill by 60 votes to 36, with five Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. Governor Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 418 on February 28.

Forthcoming articles will analyze this law’s impact on Iowans and the inevitable court challenge over some potentially unconstitutional provisions.

For now, I want to highlight a selection of compelling appeals the majority party ignored: six from Iowans whom this law will directly harm, and six from allies of the trans community.

All of the videos enclosed below came from either the floor debates or the Iowa House public hearing held on the morning of February 27. It was very hard to choose just a few testimonies. You can watch the entire public hearing here or here, the full Iowa Senate floor debate here, and the Iowa House debate here.

With a promise “to provide leadership to our country,” Republican David Pautsch officially kicked off his second campaign for Iowa’s first Congressional district on February 27 in Des Moines. Touching on many of the topics he discussed in a recent interview with Bleeding Heartland, he repeatedly contrasted his steadfast conservative beliefs with the “vacillation” of the GOP incumbent, U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

I was unable to attend the campaign launch, as I was in the Iowa House chamber covering floor debate on a bill revoking transgender Iowans’ civil rights protections and legal recognition. The Iowa Standard’s Jacob Hall recorded the event and posted the video on Facebook.

Jesse Parker is a concerned citizen with an educational background in history and politics.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a reminder that the Democratic Party needs to recruit, revitalize, and inspire a younger voter base. Over the span of twelve years, Iowa flipped from a swing state that voted for Barack Obama to a solid red state. This year, Democrats must begin the work to flip the colors back.

While Iowa voter turnout hovered around 74 percent for the recent presidential election, young Iowans mark a problematic demographic with disappointing voter participation. Iowans aged 18-24 had an abysmal turnout rate of 29 percent in the 2022 general election, while 25–34-year-olds were only slightly more likely to participate (33 percent turnout).

Although these figures present a common trend among young voters in the nation, 2025 presents a strategic opportunity to engage with young progressives across the state.

UPDATE: Following committee passage, this bill was renumbered House File 583. The companion legislation is Senate File 418. Both chambers approved the bill on February 27, and Governor Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 418 into law the following day. The law will go into effect on July 1, 2025. Original post follows.

Republican members of the Iowa House and Senate have introduced dozens of bills targeting LGBTQ people since the GOP gained full control of state government in 2017. But the latest bill to drop broke new ground in several ways.

House Judiciary Committee chair Steven Holt introduced House Study Bill 242, “an Act relating to sex and gender,” on February 20. He intends to put it on a fast track to Governor Kim Reynolds’ desk. A subcommittee meeting is scheduled for Monday, February 24, at 11:00 a.m. Republican State Representative Brian Lohse posted on Facebook that the plan is for the full Judiciary Committee to consider the bill on Monday afternoon, and for leaders to bring it up for a House floor vote on February 27.

On its face, the bill would ensure that transgender and nonbinary Iowans have no legal protection against discrimination and no official recognition of their gender identity.

In addition, the bill’s impact could extend beyond the LGBTQ community to threaten civil rights protections for other groups.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

President Donald Trump and DOGE top gun Elon Musk have been in power for a month. How have they changed life in Greene County?

Probably not much—yet.

Musk has ordered the firing of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, particularly those on “probationary” status who were hired in recent months. Greene County has precious few federal workers. Probably most of them here are concentrated in the USDA and related agencies. I’m not aware that anyone here in that category has been let go, but I may be wrong.

Governor Kim Reynolds struck a confident tone when asked this week about a possible 2026 primary against former State Representative Brad Sherman.

In a February 17 news release announcing his campaign for governor, Sherman said, “I look forward to working with President Trump – who I endorsed early and supported in rallies, caucuses, conventions, and elections – in his agenda to restore the America we love.”

It was a not-subtle swipe at Reynolds, who endorsed and campaigned for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis before the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

Although the governor has not confirmed she will seek a third term, she was ready with talking points that would cater to Republican audiences.

“I’LL STAND ON MY BOLD CONSERVATIVE RECORD”

Gray TV Iowa political director Dave Price asked Reynolds on February 18 if she felt confident the president would endorse her in a Republican primary. Here’s my recording of that exchange from the governor’s press conference.

Tony Leys is Rural Editor/Correspondent for KFF Health News, where this story was first published.

Collection agents for the state of Iowa have sent letters seeking millions of dollars from the estates of at least two people with disabilities who died after spending most of their lives in a state institution.

The amounts represent what Medicaid spent covering the residents’ care when they lived at the Glenwood Resource Center, a state-run facility that closed last summer.

The bills are extraordinary examples of a practice called Medicaid estate recovery. Federal law requires states to try to collect money after some types of Medicaid recipients die. The point is to encourage people to use their own resources before relying on the public program. But some states, including Iowa, are particularly aggressive about the collections, national reports show.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird enjoyed suing the Biden administration. She filed or joined more than a dozen multi-state lawsuits against the federal government during her first year in office alone. At least a dozen more lawsuits followed in 2024.

Bird has often welcomed media coverage of her legal battles against Biden administration policies. Her office issued many press releases to announce new litigation or joint letters challenging the federal government.

But Bird’s office kept quiet about one case, which Iowa and sixteen other Republican-controlled states filed in the Northern District of Texas last September. Texas v. Becerra could prove catastrophic for Americans with disabilities. Not only are the plaintiffs seeking to vacate a federal rule prohibiting discrimination against disabled people in health care settings, they are also asking the court to declare a 1973 law known as Section 504 unconstitutional and unenforceable.

After reporters began asking questions about that lawsuit last week, Bird and her staff lied repeatedly about the scope of the case and the plaintiffs’ goals.

Legislative clerk Blaine Watkins will be the Republican candidate for the March 11 special election in Iowa House district 100, covering most of Lee County. Three other Republicans also competed for the nomination at a February 13 special convention. Watkins easily won with more than 70 percent of the delegates’ weighted votes on the first ballot.

Chuck Vandenberg reported for the Pen City Current that Watkins “told the convention that he had three issues he wanted to tackle right away, if elected”: property taxes, school choice and parental rights, and economic growth and jobs.

According to his LinkedIn page, Watkins graduated from Grand View University in December 2024, having majored in political science with a minor in business. He has clerked in the Iowa Senate for the past five years—first for former State Senator Craig Williams in 2021 and 2022, then for State Senator Jeff Reichman (who represents this part of southeast Iowa) since the 2023 session.

Watkins continues a trend of Republican legislative candidates who previously worked as clerks for Iowa GOP lawmakers. The most recent example was David Blom, the successful 2024 GOP challenger in House district 52, covering the Marshalltown area. Candidates with clerking experience are already steeped in the culture of the Golden Dome and will likely be reliable votes for leadership.

I wouldn’t have guessed President Donald Trump’s lawsuit over the pre-election Iowa Poll could assert claims any more outlandish than the original court filing in December.

Enter U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks and former State Senator Brad Zaun.

The Des Moines Register’s William Morris was first to report on February 4 that Miller-Meeks and Zaun signed on as plaintiffs in Trump’s case against J. Ann Selzer, her polling company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent company Gannett. The suit alleges that the inaccurate poll (which suggested Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was leading Trump in Iowa) was an “unfair act or practice” under Iowa’s consumer fraud statute. It further claims defendants “engaged in this misconduct to improperly influence the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.”

Adding plaintiffs who are Iowa residents will help Trump get the case moved back to state court, where he originally filed. Attorneys for Gannett used a legal maneuver in December to remove the case to federal court.

For Miller-Meeks, there’s political upside as well: demonstrating her allegiance to Trump may help her fend off a second primary challenge from MAGA Republican David Pautsch.

But let’s be clear: Miller-Meeks and Zaun have even less basis to claim the Iowa Poll harmed them than Trump does.

Al Charlson is a North Central Iowa farm kid, lifelong Iowan, and retired bank trust officer. The Waverly Democrat published a version of this commentary on February 6.

Old habits die hard. While many of my neighbors are checking sports scores, I’m checking the U.S. Treasury yield curve. (OK – I do follow the Cyclones closely.) Even though I’m no longer actively managing investments, I’m still interested in the economy. Over time I’ve learned that the bond market is a more focused and rational indicator of current and developing economic conditions than the stock markets.

The Treasury yield curve is simply a graph of the current interest yield on U.S. Treasury debt over a range of maturities from overnight Fed funds to 30-year bonds. The Federal Reserve sets the Fed funds rate. Longer term rates are determined by market supply and demand. Bond market watchers generally focus on the 2-year to 10-year sector of the curve.

“The grassroots of America love making America great again,” David Pautsch told me during a February 5 telephone interview. “It’s the political establishment people, including and especially the Republican establishment, that is the biggest albatross around our neck.”

Pautsch is counting on the MAGA grassroots as he prepares for a rematch against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 2026 GOP primary for Iowa’s first Congressional district.

A minister and founder of the Quad Cities Prayer Breakfast, Pautsch received just under 44 percent of the vote in the 2024 primary after running against the incumbent from the right.

I reached out to Pautsch after seeing he had booked the state capitol rotunda on February 27 for a “Congressional candidacy announcement.” Although he hasn’t officially launched his campaign, he agreed to speak on the record about his plans and prospects.

Governor Kim Reynolds announced on February 7 that she has scheduled a special election in Iowa House district 100 for Tuesday, March 11. The seat became vacant due to the recent passing of State Representative Martin Graber.

The district covers most of Lee County, including the population centers of Keokuk and Fort Madison. Like several other counties containing mid-sized cities, this part of Iowa was a longtime Democratic stronghold.

But Lee County was among the “pivot counties” that voted twice for Barack Obama, then for Donald Trump in three straight presidential elections.

More recently, voters in this area have favored Republican candidates for down-ballot offices as well. GOP candidates picked up the Iowa House and Senate seats covering this territory by defeating Democratic incumbents in 2020. In the 2024 general election, a Republican challenger won the race for Lee County sheriff, a position held by Democrats for many years. Some county office-holders who used to be Democrats (such as the Lee County attorney, recorder, and former auditor) have changed their party affiliation to Republican in recent years as well.

Dan Piller was a business reporter for more than four decades, working for the Des Moines Register and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He covered the oil and gas industry while in Texas and was the Register’s agriculture reporter before his retirement in 2013. He lives in Ankeny.

President Donald Trump renewed his eight-year tariff war last weekend by declaring tariffs of 25 percent on most goods from Mexico and Canada (10 percent on Canadian oil) and 10 percent on China. No sooner had the war been declared than we had a 30-day truce as Mexico and Canada promised various reinforcements of their border that supposedly will stanch the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.—policies both countries had announced weeks earlier.

Trump famously told us eight years ago that trade wars are “easy to win.” But if they’re so easy, why are we still fighting them eight years later? U.S. armed forces needed just half that time to subdue Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War II.

Trump and his MAGAtoids can claim short-term victories with the Mexican and Canadian truces. But bigger hills remain to be seized. China might not be so easy to bully. Neither will be the European Union. To those of us of advanced ages, the 30-day truce was reminiscent of the occasional truces during the Vietnam War, when hopes were raised around the world only to be shattered by the resumption of bombings and guerilla ambushes.

Dean Lerner served Iowa as an Assistant Attorney General for sixteen years, Chief Deputy Secretary of State for four years, and about ten years as Deputy Director, then Director of the Department of Inspections & Appeals. He then worked for the CMS Director of the Division of Nursing Homes, and the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Iowa. He is a graduate of Grinnell College and Drake University Law School.

These days, Iowans may wonder how our elected officials, who should prioritize protecting and caring for the most vulnerable, can live with themselves or even look at themselves in the mirror. More than 50,000 Iowans live in the state’s more than 400 nursing homes. Most of those facilities are for-profit enterprises, funded by tens of billions of taxpayer dollars. These residents, their families, those of us approaching our own long-term care needs—and frankly, all Iowans—should be able to count on responsible individuals of both political parties to fulfill their oaths. 

Not in Iowa.

Republicans have had full control of state government (the Iowa House, Senate, and governor’s office) since 2017. In her recent Condition of the State address, Governor Kim Reynolds made it sound as if we were now living in the State of Nirvana, thanks to her and her party.

They say anything can happen in a low-turnout special election. And on January 28, voters in Iowa Senate district 35 elected Democrat Mike Zimmer to represent them through the end of 2026. Zimmer defeated Republican nominee Katie Whittington by 4,812 votes to 4,473 (51.7 percent to 48.1 percent), according to unofficial results.

Most Iowa political observers expected Republicans to hold the seat easily. Former State Senator Chris Cournoyer was re-elected in this district with about 61 percent of the vote in 2022. (She resigned from the legislature to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor last month.) In the most recent general election, voters living in Senate district 35 preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris by a 21-point margin, and preferred GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks over Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by a 9-point margin. The GOP has a voter registration advantage too.

Yet Zimmer performed well in every part of Senate district 35. He carried Clinton County, where most of his constituents live, by 3,411 votes to 3,169 (51.7 percent to 48.0 percent). Trump won that formerly blue county in November with 58.5 percent of the vote to 39.7 percent for Harris.

The Democrat carried the Jackson County precincts by 555 votes to 446 for Whittington (55.4 percent to 44.6 percent). Voters in the same area favored Trump by 60.3 percent to 38.2 percent in November, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of the precinct-level results.

Also impressive: Zimmer nearly matched his opponent in the Scott County portion of the district, gaining 846 votes to 858 for Whittington (49.6 percent to 50.3 percent). Trump’s advantage over Harris in the same precincts: 64.2 percent to 34.1 percent.

How did the Democrat pull it off?

The U.S. Supreme Court declined last week to hear former U.S. Representative Steve King’s appeal in a case stemming from his Congressional campaign’s unauthorized use of the popular “Success Kid” meme in 2020.

SHORT-LIVED POST LED TO LONG LEGAL BATTLE

Laney Griner took the photo of her son Sam on a beach in 2007 and registered the copyright for the “Success Kid” meme in 2012. While numerous people have used the image to create memes without compensating the Griners, various corporations have paid to license the photo for use in advertising.

A January 2020 post on the King for Congress Facebook page put Sam’s defiant image in front of the U.S. Capitol with the message “FUND OUR MEMES!!!” The post linked to a fundraising page.

King’s campaign took the “Success Kid” Facebook post down within hours after receiving a warning from Griner’s attorney. Griner told the New York Times at the time, “Steve King is just the worst of the worst,” and “bigotry is just the antithesis of what we want to be the association with this meme.”

Governor Kim Reynolds hasn’t faced an opponent in a Republican primary since 2008, when she ran for state Senate. But if she seeks a third term in 2026, she will likely compete against a challenger from the right: former State Representative Brad Sherman.

The Iowa Standard reported last month that Sherman intends to run for governor. Speaking to Bleeding Heartland at the state capitol on January 23, Sherman declined to discuss specifics but indicated he has a campaign kickoff planned for February.

His campaign Facebook page was recently updated after a stretch of 21 months with no new posts. His refreshed campaign website is recruiting volunteers to “spread the word about the upcoming primary.” His latest campaign financial disclosure shows no fundraising for the first eleven months of 2024—when Sherman wasn’t seeking re-election to the state House—followed by ten donations totaling $4,030 in December. That month, the campaign committee paid $6,000 to a Republican consulting firm.

To put it mildly, Sherman would face long odds against Reynolds. The governor’s campaign raised $1.8 million last year and started 2025 with more than $3 million cash on hand. Reynolds would have massive establishment support—not only in state, but from the Republican Governors Association, where her former chief of staff serves as executive director. In addition, Iowans are famous for re-electing incumbents.

On the other hand, a sizeable number of Iowa Republicans are open to anti-establishment candidates. Then State Senator Jim Carlin ran for U.S. Senate on a shoestring budget but received 26.5 percent of the 2022 primary vote against Senator Chuck Grassley. Last year, Kevin Virgil received nearly 40 percent of the vote against U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, and David Pautsch managed just under 44 percent against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, even though both members of Congress massively outspent their GOP challengers.

Four groups would be particularly important for Sherman if he seeks the nomination for governor next year.

John Morrissey is a freelance writer in Des Moines.

State Senator Michael Bousselot’s proposal that Iowa purchase the lower tier of counties in Minnesota sounds comical, at first blush. But President Donald Trump’s rumblings about purchasing Greenland and taking back the Panama Canal, along with observations about the artificiality of sovereign boundaries, may indicate a serious purpose.

Is there some partisan political mischief behind this proposal? And what sort of political goods are on offer that might make this worth pursuing?

Dennis Hart has worked at TV stations in Fresno, Buffalo, Phoenix, Atlanta, Detroit, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Well, that didn’t take long, did it?

Just a few days ago, word came out that the Allen Media Group—which owns more than two dozen stations, including KIMT in Mason City and KWWL in Waterloo—was getting rid of its on-air weather people.

All of them.

But now, the Allen Group has backed off, after what is said to have been negative reactions from both viewers and advertisers.

I have to admit, Allen’s plan was a new one on me.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

A recent Iowa Court of Appeals decision could substantially change how Iowa’s local government bodies—including county supervisors, city councils, and school boards—conduct meetings.

The decision centers on the legitimacy of closed sessions by those public bodies. The law at issue is Iowa Code Section 21.5(1)(i), part of the state’s open meetings law. Section 21.5 contains a list of conditions that permit closed meetings. The exemption at the heart of this case reads as follows:

To evaluate the professional competency of an individual whose appointment, hiring, performance, or discharge is being considered when necessary to prevent needless and irreparable injury to that individual’s reputation and that individual requests a closed session.

Randy Richardson is a former educator and retired associate executive director of the Iowa State Education Association.

At long last the Iowa Department of Education released school enrollment numbers for the current school year on January 17. Public school enrollment took another dip this year as a total of 480,665 students attended Iowa schools. That’s a decrease of 3033.3 students from the previous year. Private schools, however, continued their growth with a total of 39,356 students. That’s an increase of 3,144 students or 8.7 percent from the previous year.

For years, private school enrollment decreased statewide. Since “Education Savings Accounts” (more commonly known as vouchers) have become widely available, that trend had reversed. Not only has enrollment increased, but more private schools have been opening statewide. This year saw an additional 21 accredited private schools open, bringing the total number of private schools to 211. Almost 80 percent of all private schools in the state saw enrollment gains. Compare that to public schools where only 36 percent saw an increase in enrollment.

What had been obvious for weeks became official on January 14. Hours after Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Joni Ernst announced in an interview with WHO Radio’s Simon Conway and later in a news release that she would vote to confirm President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of defense.

It never seemed likely Ernst would stand in Hegseth’s way. However, she had suggested in early December that he needed a “thorough vetting,” and she wasn’t ready to commit. Facing a barrage of attacks from conservative influencers and threats of a 2026 GOP primary challenge, the senator quickly changed her tune, saying in a statement, “As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources.”

In the end, Ernst conducted a selective search for the truth about Hegseth. She discounted facts that raised doubts about his fitness while playing up a testimonial from someone with a stake in the outcome.

Her approach was quite different in 2019, when she considered a controversial Trump nominee for another military role—in the absence of any coordinated effort to influence her decision.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson caused some angst in the House Republican caucus this week when he removed Representative Mike Turner as chair of the Intelligence Committee, supposedly due to “concerns from Mar-a-Lago,” among other considerations. But there were no unpleasant surprises for Iowa’s delegation as committee assignments were finalized for the 119th Congress.

The Iowans rank low in seniority among House Republicans, with Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) beginning his second term, and Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) each starting their third terms. Nevertheless, all will continue to serve on influential panels.

Senator Chuck Grassley is the longest-serving U.S. senator in Iowa history and among the ten longest-serving members of Congress from any state. He returned this month to two prominent roles as chair of the Judiciary Committee and Senate President pro tempore—the third in line for the presidency after the vice president and U.S. House speaker. Meanwhile, Senator Joni Ernst now chairs a committee for the first time.

One of the biggest spenders on behalf of U.S. House Democrats launched digital advertising this week targeting U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts. The ads, enclosed in full below, claim the GOP incumbents “could cost you more,” because they support President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The House Majority PAC’s 501(c)4 affiliate, House Majority Forward, is funding the 30-second spots, part of a $10 million campaign targeting nine potentially vulnerable House Republicans.

Wally Taylor is the Legal Chair of the Sierra Club Iowa chapter.

For the first time, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has overruled the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) on the state’s impaired waters list.

Pam Mackey Taylor, director of the Iowa Chapter of Sierra Club, explained in a Bleeding Heartland post from November that last year, the EPA objected to the impaired waters list the DNR submitted. The EPA added seven segments in the Cedar, Des Moines, Iowa, Raccoon, and South Skunk Rivers to the list, because DNR staff had not used all existing and readily available water quality data. The DNR had refused to add these seven segments during the preparation of the list, even after the EPA told them the omission of those segments would not be approved.

Before Sierra Club and two other ad hoc groups filed a lawsuit in 2000, Iowa had never prepared an impaired waters list, even though the federal Clean Water Act required the state to do so. As a result of that lawsuit, EPA created Iowa’s first impaired waters list. But the federal agency had not overruled the DNR’s submission of the state’s impaired waters list until last year.

Thirteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

When the Iowa legislature reconvenes in Des Moines on January 13, fifteen state House members and six state senators will be sworn in for the first time. But one of them is marking more than a personal milestone.

Aime Wichtendahl will make history as Iowa’s first transgender state lawmaker. She starts her new job as a Democrat outnumbered by the largest GOP majority in the Iowa House since 1970. Not only that: House Republicans have recently approved or considered numerous bills that would discriminate against LGBTQ people broadly and transgender Iowans in particular. Wichtendahl has spoken against those bills in subcommittee meetings and at rallies.

Iowa’s first trans legislator spoke to Bleeding Heartland in November and December about her campaign, takeaways from the 2024 elections, and plans for legislative work.

A year-end review from U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley’s office boasted that the senator’s oversight “touched on 97% of all taxpayer-funded agencies” during 2024. “Nearly every corner of government received Grassley’s thorough inspection – it’s all part of Grassley’s constant efforts to ensure the government is a service to the American people,” the report added.

One area that escaped Grassley’s “thorough inspection” was the collapse of bribery allegations against President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. For months in 2023, Grassley publicized an FBI informant’s explosive claims about the Bidens.

But he’s had nothing to say since Alexander Smirnov, the original source of those allegations, pleaded guilty in December to making up the whole story.

The nonprofit Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) announced on January 7 that it will defend longtime Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer at no charge in the lawsuit Donald Trump filed last month. Trump sued Selzer, her polling company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent company Gannett over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 3 points. The Republican later carried Iowa by a 13-point margin.

FIRE’s chief counsel Bob Corn-Revere said in a news release, “Punishing someone for their political prediction is about as unconstitutional as it gets,” adding, “This is America. No one should be afraid to predict the outcome of an election. Whether it’s from a pollster, or you, or me, such political expression is fully and unequivocally protected by the First Amendment.”

One of President-elect Donald Trump’s top advisers on judicial and legal matters stepped away from a University of Iowa alumni advisory board late last year. Mike Davis has long been an aggressive Trump ally, known for his “combative presence on right-wing media.” Some of his posts on the X/Twitter platform prompted calls in November for the university to remove him from the political science department’s alumni advisory board. But in a statement provided last month, Davis said, “With President Trump’s victory on November 5th, I will not have the necessary bandwidth to serve on this important volunteer board, so I decided on my own to step down.”

The Article III Project, which Davis leads as founding president, told Bleeding Heartland that no one from the university asked Davis to resign from the advisory board or take down any of his social media posts.

Communications staff for the University of Iowa declined to comment on the situation. Professor Brian Lai, the interim department chair listed as the point of contact for the alumni advisory board, did not respond to inquiries.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

Twelfth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Phil Montag is a Des Moines area activist, serves on the Iowa Unity Coalition Board of Directors, and is one of the founders of Veishea Analytics.

Every election cycle produces a wealth of public data, from polling station statistics to voter turnout figures, campaign fundraising and spending data, absentee ballot requests, and audited results. This data exists not just for politicians and media outlets, but for the public as well. It provides transparency, accountability, and evidence-based debunking of misinformation that is prevalent today. With this analysis of the 2024 Iowa State House races, we are hoping to present the data in a new way that will be easy for everyday voters to understand.

In the Iowa State House races that concluded a few weeks ago, the Republican Party of Iowa was able to campaign with a serious cash advantage, although Democrats had much more success at promoting absentee ballot requests and turning out early votes.

The combined fundraising totals for Republican candidates running for the Iowa House was a little more than $12 million. For Democrats it was $6.7 million. Those totals represent what was donated to campaigns directly as well as in-kind contributions that other organizations spent on their behalf. The fundraising graphs enclosed below represent only what was raised in 2023 and 2024. Incumbent candidates whose campaigns started 2023 with cash on hand may have spent more.

A years-long effort to expand the federal judiciary faltered this week when President Joe Biden vetoed the Judicial Understaffing Delays Getting Emergencies Solved Act of 2024. The JUDGES Act would have increased the federal district court bench by about 10 percent over the next twelve years, adding 63 new permanent federal judgeships in thirteen states, along with three temporary judgeships in Oklahoma. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa was slated to receive one of the first eleven positions to be created in 2025.

The veto leaves Iowa’s Northern District with two District Court judges (Chief Judge C.J. Williams and Judge Leonard T. Strand), along with Senior Judge Linda R. Reade and two magistrate judges. That number hasn’t changed since 1990, when the last major expansion of the federal bench allocated a third judgeship to Iowa’s Southern District. The 1990 law also assigned a judge who had previously divided his time between the state’s two districts to the Northern District on a permanent basis.

Biden may not have the last word on this subject, given the Republican Party’s commitment to putting more conservatives on the bench.