One of the biggest spenders on behalf of U.S. House Democrats launched digital advertising this week targeting U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts. The ads, enclosed in full below, claim the GOP incumbents “could cost you more,” because they support President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The House Majority PAC’s 501(c)4 affiliate, House Majority Forward, is funding the 30-second spots, part of a $10 million campaign targeting nine potentially vulnerable House Republicans.

The Cedar Rapids Gazette and Dubuque Telegraph-Herald will switch next month to printing the paper only three days a week.

A January 14 email to subscribers from president Kelly Homewood and executive editor Zack Kucharski said that effective February 17, the Gazette will print editions on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sundays, rather than the current seven days a week. Telegraph-Herald publisher Mike Fortman wrote in a January 12 column that beginning February 15, the newspaper will move from its current six-day print schedule to printing on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays.

Leaders of both newspapers pointed to economic realities as they explained the decision.

Wally Taylor is the Legal Chair of the Sierra Club Iowa chapter.

For the first time, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has overruled the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) on the state’s impaired waters list.

Pam Mackey Taylor, director of the Iowa Chapter of Sierra Club, explained in a Bleeding Heartland post from November that last year, the EPA objected to the impaired waters list the DNR submitted. The EPA added seven segments in the Cedar, Des Moines, Iowa, Raccoon, and South Skunk Rivers to the list, because DNR staff had not used all existing and readily available water quality data. The DNR had refused to add these seven segments during the preparation of the list, even after the EPA told them the omission of those segments would not be approved.

Before Sierra Club and two other ad hoc groups filed a lawsuit in 2000, Iowa had never prepared an impaired waters list, even though the federal Clean Water Act required the state to do so. As a result of that lawsuit, EPA created Iowa’s first impaired waters list. But the federal agency had not overruled the DNR’s submission of the state’s impaired waters list until last year.

Thirteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

When the Iowa legislature reconvenes in Des Moines on January 13, fifteen state House members and six state senators will be sworn in for the first time. But one of them is marking more than a personal milestone.

Aime Wichtendahl will make history as Iowa’s first transgender state lawmaker. She starts her new job as a Democrat outnumbered by the largest GOP majority in the Iowa House since 1970. Not only that: House Republicans have recently approved or considered numerous bills that would discriminate against LGBTQ people broadly and transgender Iowans in particular. Wichtendahl has spoken against those bills in subcommittee meetings and at rallies.

Iowa’s first trans legislator spoke to Bleeding Heartland in November and December about her campaign, takeaways from the 2024 elections, and plans for legislative work.

A year-end review from U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley’s office boasted that the senator’s oversight “touched on 97% of all taxpayer-funded agencies” during 2024. “Nearly every corner of government received Grassley’s thorough inspection – it’s all part of Grassley’s constant efforts to ensure the government is a service to the American people,” the report added.

One area that escaped Grassley’s “thorough inspection” was the collapse of bribery allegations against President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. For months in 2023, Grassley publicized an FBI informant’s explosive claims about the Bidens.

But he’s had nothing to say since Alexander Smirnov, the original source of those allegations, pleaded guilty in December to making up the whole story.

Cami Koons covers agriculture and the environment for Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

Iowa counties can have their own review on proposed animal feeding operation permits if they adopt a construction evaluation resolution and submit it to the Iowa Department of Natural Resources by the end of January each year. 

But not all counties are taking this step, giving up the ability to have a say in the permitting process.

The resolutions allow counties to submit formal recommendations to DNR, send county officials to the DNR inspections of a site, appeal a DNR decision on a construction permit, and implement more stringent construction requirements through the state master matrix.

The nonprofit Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) announced on January 7 that it will defend longtime Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer at no charge in the lawsuit Donald Trump filed last month. Trump sued Selzer, her polling company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent company Gannett over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 3 points. The Republican later carried Iowa by a 13-point margin.

FIRE’s chief counsel Bob Corn-Revere said in a news release, “Punishing someone for their political prediction is about as unconstitutional as it gets,” adding, “This is America. No one should be afraid to predict the outcome of an election. Whether it’s from a pollster, or you, or me, such political expression is fully and unequivocally protected by the First Amendment.”

One of President-elect Donald Trump’s top advisers on judicial and legal matters stepped away from a University of Iowa alumni advisory board late last year. Mike Davis has long been an aggressive Trump ally, known for his “combative presence on right-wing media.” Some of his posts on the X/Twitter platform prompted calls in November for the university to remove him from the political science department’s alumni advisory board. But in a statement provided last month, Davis said, “With President Trump’s victory on November 5th, I will not have the necessary bandwidth to serve on this important volunteer board, so I decided on my own to step down.”

The Article III Project, which Davis leads as founding president, told Bleeding Heartland that no one from the university asked Davis to resign from the advisory board or take down any of his social media posts.

Communications staff for the University of Iowa declined to comment on the situation. Professor Brian Lai, the interim department chair listed as the point of contact for the alumni advisory board, did not respond to inquiries.

Both major parties have selected their nominees for the January 28 special election to in Iowa Senate district 35. Central DeWitt school board president Mike Zimmer was unopposed at the Democratic Party’s special nominating convention on December 30. Clinton County activist Katie Whittington prevailed in a three-way competition at the GOP special convention on January 4.

Iowa House Republican Tom Determann, who has represented House district 69 (the Clinton area) since 2023, and Clinton County farmer Dennis Campbell also competed for the GOP nomination.

Whittington has never held elective office but has volunteered for various causes locally, including Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. She describes herself as a “health freedom advocate” and has been active with the anti-vaccine organizations Children’s Health Defense and Health Freedom Iowa, for which she has served as vice president.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

State Auditor Rob Sand has urged members of the Iowa Democratic Party’s governing body to give Rita Hart another term as state chair. In a January 1 message to State Central Committee members (enclosed in full below), Sand credited Hart with getting the party out of debt and raising enough money to fund full-time communications, finance, and data staff.

He also asserted that Iowa was “more GOP than the rest of the country in 2022, then more Dem than the rest of the country in 2024.” I believe he meant to say that the swing toward Donald Trump in Iowa was (slightly) less than the national swing toward Trump this year. Iowa’s voting patterns are clearly not “more Dem” than the U.S. as a whole; the president-elect won the popular vote by about 1.5 points nationally but by 13.2 points in Iowa.

Sand pushed back against what he called “inaccurate info about the party’s performance” and Hart. In particular, he defended the party’s decision to send fewer absentee ballot request forms to voters this year than in past election cycles, saying Republican-backed changes to Iowa law made it more risky to push voting by mail and wiser to invest in other programs.

He appeared to be referring to a recent Substack post by Robert Leonard, which faulted the Iowa Democratic Party for “lost opportunities” during the 2024 election cycle. Leonard wrote, “One Democratic legislator tells me that normally Iowa Democrats send out approximately 250,000 absentee ballot request forms and this year only 40,000 were sent.” It’s important to remember that the state party was not the only entity pushing early GOTV. For example, the Polk County Democrats distributed an estimated 190,000 absentee ballot request forms to around 95,000 households in late August and early September.

Sand asked members of the governing body to unite behind Hart and her “Forward Victory: 2026” plan, saying it would be “positive change for the IDP” to keep a chair for more than one term. Since Michael Kiernan stepped down for health reasons in 2010, nine people have led the party: Sue Dvorsky, Tyler Olson, Scott Brennan, Andy McGuire, Derek Eadon, Troy Price, Mark Smith, Ross Wilburn, and Hart.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will meet on January 4 to elect a new chair. Three candidates are expected to be nominated: Hart, Tim Winter, and Alexandra Nickolas-Dermody. Dexter Merschbrock announced in December that he was seeking the position but endorsed Nickolas-Dermody this week.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Winter and one for Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

A new nonprofit organization, Mid-Iowa Community News, will soon launch the Ames Voice, a digital newsroom “dedicated to being the primary source of news and information for the Ames area.” Douglas Burns, one of the organizers of the effort, announced in a December 30 post on The Iowa Mercury newsletter that Ames Voice has “been in the works for a year.” Its mission: “local, local, local coverage. Just the facts. Full coverage of life in Story County, home to Ames and Iowa State University.”

Ames is Iowa’s ninth-largest city, with more than 65,000 residents, and home to the Iowa Department of Transportation as well as Iowa’s second-largest state university. Story County is the ninth-largest of the 99 counties, with more than 98,000 residents.

Although the area has long had a newspaper, The Ames Tribune (part of the Gannett group) has eliminated most of its newsroom staff in recent years. The paper now publishes far more content from the Des Moines Register than original reporting.

A years-long effort to expand the federal judiciary faltered this week when President Joe Biden vetoed the Judicial Understaffing Delays Getting Emergencies Solved Act of 2024. The JUDGES Act would have increased the federal district court bench by about 10 percent over the next twelve years, adding 63 new permanent federal judgeships in thirteen states, along with three temporary judgeships in Oklahoma. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa was slated to receive one of the first eleven positions to be created in 2025.

The veto leaves Iowa’s Northern District with two District Court judges (Chief Judge C.J. Williams and Judge Leonard T. Strand), along with Senior Judge Linda R. Reade and two magistrate judges. That number hasn’t changed since 1990, when the last major expansion of the federal bench allocated a third judgeship to Iowa’s Southern District. The 1990 law also assigned a judge who had previously divided his time between the state’s two districts to the Northern District on a permanent basis.

Biden may not have the last word on this subject, given the Republican Party’s commitment to putting more conservatives on the bench.

Central DeWitt School Board president Mike Zimmer announced on December 23 that he will seek the Democratic nomination in Iowa Senate district 35, where voters will choose a successor to Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer on January 28. In a statement enclosed in full below, Zimmer promised to “champion Eastern Iowa’s public schools, working families, and our middle class” by fighting for “stronger public schools, better wages, and opportunities that foster real financial stability.”

According to a guide from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, candidates have until 5:00 PM on January 14 to file nominating papers with the secretary of state. Before then, Democrats and Republicans will hold nominating conventions, where delegates from the 36 precincts across the Senate district will choose a nominee. Third-party or independent candidates need to collect at least 100 signatures from eligible voters residing in the district, and submit those petitions with their nominating papers.

While others could compete for the Democratic nomination at the special convention, Zimmer’s proven electoral track record would give him an advantage.

Chris Gloninger is a meteorologist and climate communicator with 18 years of broadcast experience, AMS dual certifications, and a master’s in Emergency Management, specializing in making complex climate topics accessible. He first published this essay on his newsletter, Weathering Climate Change.

As 2024 comes to a close, it’s clear something extraordinary—and unsettling—has been happening in Des Moines. With just five days to go, the city is tied for the second warmest year on record. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s ensured the year would cement its place in the top three warmest years since record keeping began in 1879. But this isn’t just a story of numbers; it’s a narrative about change—rapid, undeniable, and deeply concerning.

Weather records in Des Moines stretch back nearly 150 years, offering a rich tapestry of data that helps to understand long-term climate trends. In a stable climate, one might expect the warmest years to be evenly distributed across time—half occurring before 1951 and half after. But that’s not what’s happening. Of the top ten warmest years in Des Moines, seven have occurred since 1951. Even more telling, six of those years have happened since 2010. That’s not just a trend—it’s a flashing red warning light.

Charles Gaba is a health care policy wonk, advocate, and blogger who mixes data analysis with snark at ACASignups.net, where this article first appeared. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, Mastodon, Spoutible, or X/Twitter.

In early 2021, Democrats in Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded and enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The changes brought the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place more than a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 percent to 400 percent of Federal Poverty Level income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned “Subsidy Cliff” at 400 percent of the Federal Poverty Level. Before 2021, a household earning even $1 more than that amount had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

COMPARING THE ORIGINAL ACA SUBSIDIES WITH ENHANCED SUBSIDIES

Here’s what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

When it comes to freedom of religion and the rights enshrined in the 45 words of the First Amendment, the devil is in the details in Iowa.

Governor Kim Reynolds’ administration recently revoked permission for the Satanic Temple of Iowa to place a display in the state capitol and host a holiday celebration around it. The Department of Administrative Services and governor’s office claimed the event would harm minors.

A year ago, the governor took the opposite stance on the Satanic Temple’s holiday display. Although she said it was “absolutely objectionable,” she explained in 2023 why the display was allowed: “In a free society, the best response to objectionable speech is more speech, and I encourage all those of faith to join me in praying over the Capitol and recognizing the nativity scene that will be on display.”

They were so close.

After weeks of negotiations, U.S. House and Senate leaders had agreed on a year-end spending bill that would fund the federal government through March 14, extend the 2018 Farm Bill through next September, and provide more than $100 billion in disaster aid. The legislation included numerous other policies, including at least two that had been priorities for Iowa’s members of Congress. The bill would have legalized year-round sales of higher ethanol blends known as E-15 in all states. It also contained new regulations for pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), which could have saved consumers billions while helping small pharmacies.

All of the Iowans in Congress have talked up E-15 as a path to U.S. energy independence. (In reality, only about 3,400 of some 198,000 gas stations across the country dispense higher ethanol blends.) Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Senator Chuck Grassley have been among the most vocal proponents of PBM reform, calling for action on prescription drug middlemen in draft bills, press releases, news conferences, House and Senate hearings, floor speeches, and taxpayer-funded radio ads.

Little did they know that President-elect Donald Trump and his billionaire buddy Elon Musk were about to blow up the deal.

Iowa’s all-Republican delegation voted the same way on almost every bill that came before both chambers during the 118th Congress, which wrapped up its work in the early hours of December 21. But one of the last bills sent to President Joe Biden, the Social Security Fairness Act, revealed an unusual disagreement among the Iowans serving in the U.S. House and Senate.

When the House approved the bill by 327 votes to 75 in November, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) were part of the bipartisan majority.

When the Senate passed the bill by 76 votes to 20 shortly after midnight on December 21, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst were among the 20 Republicans who voted no.

The Iowans’ comments on the Social Security Fairness Act illustrate how differently politicians with similar ideologies can view a complex public policy fix.

Iowa is projected to maintain four U.S. House districts after 2030, according to population estimates the U.S. Census Bureau released on December 19. If that pans out, it would be our state’s longest stretch without losing a Congressional district in 100 years.

Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, posted a map on social media on December 19, showing how reapportionment would affect each state. Iowa is among 36 states that would neither gain nor lose any U.S. House districts after the 2030 census, if population trends from the past two years hold. Three neighboring states—Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—are each expected to lose one seat, in line with a decades-long trend of relatively slower population growth in the Midwest and Northeast, compared to the South and West.

Lyle Muller is a board member of the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting and Iowa High School Press Association, a trustee of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, former executive director/editor of the Iowa Center for Public Journalism that became part of the Midwest Center, former editor of The Cedar Rapids Gazette, and a recipient of the Iowa Newspaper Association’s Distinguished Service Award. In retirement, he is the professional adviser for Grinnell College’s Scarlet & Black newspaper. This article first appeared on his Substack newsletter.

So, Donald Trump is suing The Des Moines Register and pollster J. Ann Selzer for consumer fraud, which he claims was willful election interference. Bring it on, I would like to say—but I don’t run The Register and my subscription does not entitle me to make such a challenge. I would be doing Selzer no favors, either. 

It would be like pushing the weakest sucker in your group of eighth-grade buddies to the front of the group after mouthing off to a bully. And, make no mistake, a bully is involved in this lawsuit. The kind you thought you left behind in eighth grade.

Clark Kauffman is deputy editor at Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared. He worked for the Iowa Office of Ombudsman from October 2018 through November 2019. 

The Iowa Department of Corrections has refused to change its administrative rules to help ensure the state’s county jails aren’t illegally seizing inmates’ money, according to the state ombudsman’s office.

In its newly issued annual report, the Iowa Office of Ombudsman says that for several years, it has tracked procedures in Iowa jails that run contrary to Iowa law. Some of the practices are attributed to contradictions between Iowa law and state agencies’ administrative rules.

President-elect Donald Trump followed through this week with his threat to sue pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent.

Many others have pointed out that Trump’s lawsuit is part of his broader “revenge tour” and “war on journalism.” In Greg Sargent’s words, the case is “putting people in the media and polling on notice that they will face real legal harassment if they anger or criticize Trump.” The president-elect admitted during a December 16 press conference that he will use lawsuits to influence news coverage: “I think you have to do it, because they’re very dishonest. We need a great media, we need a fair media.”

This post will focus on the legal, factual, and logical problems with the court filing.

UPDATE: On December 23, Governor Kim Reynolds scheduled the special election for Tuesday, January 28. Original post follows.

Voters in Iowa Senate district 35 will soon elect a new senator, now that Chris Cournoyer has resigned from that role to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor.

Under state law, when a vacancy in the Iowa House or Senate arises within 45 days of the next legislative session convening, “the governor shall order such special election at the earliest practical time, giving at least eighteen days’ notice.” Governor Kim Reynolds’ spokesperson Mason Mauro said on December 16 he could not answer questions about the timing of the special election. But it’s likely to happen sometime in January. The winner will serve out the remainder of Cournoyer’s term, which runs through 2026.

Republicans will be heavily favored to hold the seat, which would give them a 35-15 majority in the chamber.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird will again ask the Iowa legislature to increase state penalties for assaulting law enforcement officers, she told reporters on December 12. But she did not condemn the idea of pardoning those who assaulted police during the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Bleeding Heartland asked Bird whether people who assaulted law enforcement or damaged federal government property on January 6 should be pardoned. She replied, “Well, that’s up to President Trump to decide once he’s in office.”

Would she support Trump if he issues those pardons? “As someone who has worked on pardons at the state level” with former Governor Terry Branstad, Bird said, “I think those decisions are best made on an individualized basis.”

Bird served as Branstad’s legal counsel from his return to the governor’s office in 2011 until early 2015. Elected attorney general in 2022, she was the highest-ranking state official to endorse Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign before the Iowa caucuses.

The House Majority PAC, one of the biggest spenders supporting Democrats in U.S. House races, has confirmed Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts are among its “top targets” for the 2026 election cycle.

The PAC also put IA-02 on a list of sixteen House districts that “could become competitive” in 2026.

UPDATE: Smith fleshed out his message against the incumbent in a digital ad launched on December 31. Original post follows.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.

MAGA activists are increasingly unhappy with U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and looking for someone to run against her in Iowa’s 2026 Senate primary.

If conservatives aren’t able to stop Ernst from winning the nomination, they may have a place to park their protest votes in the general election. Libertarian Thomas Laehn again confirmed to Bleeding Heartland he’s seriously considering a Senate bid.

Eleventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Many factors helped Iowa Republicans expand their already large state legislative majorities in 2024. Two of the most important were Donald Trump’s dominance in the presidential race, and the continued decline in ticket-splitting.

By my calculations, Trump carried 71 of the 100 Iowa House districts, up from 63 state House districts the last time he was on the ballot in 2020. In all four Democratic-held House districts that flipped this year, voters preferred Trump. That helped Republican Ryan Weldon defeat State Representative Molly Buck in House district 41 (Ankeny), David Blom defeat Sue Cahill in House district 52 (Marshalltown), Jennifer Smith defeat Chuck Isenhart in House district 72 (Dubuque), and Christian Hermanson win the open House district 59 (Mason City).

Trump also carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot, including both where Democratic incumbents lost: Mike Pike defeated Nate Boulton in Senate district 20 (eastern Polk County), and Dave Sires defeated Eric Giddens in Senate district 38 (mostly located in Black Hawk County). The only Iowa GOP lawmaker to lose in 2024, State Senator Brad Zaun, faced Matt Blake in a district where voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.

Ticket-splitting used to be more common in Iowa. Republicans maintained control of the state House in 2012, even as Barack Obama carried 61 of the 100 districts that year. (No wonder few observers expected Iowa’s hard shift to the right, beginning in 2016.)

But in 2020 and again this year, only seven Iowa legislators managed to win in districts where voters preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

I calculated the 2024 numbers using certified precinct-level vote totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s election results website. Figures on the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the Iowa House and Iowa Senate maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

This post covers the six Iowa House members and one state senator in descending order, by how much they outperformed the top of their own party’s ticket.

Tenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Across the country, voters elected a record number of women to serve in state legislatures in 2024. About a third of all U.S. state lawmakers will be women next year, and in seven state legislative chambers, women will comprise 50 percent or more of members.

In contrast, the 2024 elections moved the Iowa legislature further away from gender parity. The decline was steeper in the state House, where Iowans elected fewer women than at any point since 2014. A retirement produced a smaller drop in female representation in the upper chamber.

Ninth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

With the 2024 election results finalized following the December 2 meeting of the State Board of Canvass, we know the basics about Iowa’s general election turnout.

More information about voter participation by age group, gender, and party affiliation will be available when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report in January 2025.

A few takeaways for now:

Eighth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Iowans could reasonably view the 2016 general election as an anomaly. Diverging sharply from the national mood, this state voted for Donald Trump by more than a 9-point margin, even as Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote by a little more than 2 points. But maybe that was a one-off; Iowa had been a swing state for the previous six presidential elections.

When Joe Biden failed to flip a single Iowa county in 2020—even heavily Catholic counties where he should have done substantially better than Clinton—I concluded that Iowa was no longer a swing state. That post got some pushback from Democrats who thought I was reading too much into the results.

Trump’s third win in Iowa, by his largest margin yet, underscores how far this state has moved from the center of the national electorate. As Democrats search for a way back to winning more statewide and down-ballot races, they need to recognize that reality.

Seventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Republicans will hold 35 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats when the legislature reconvenes in 2025, a net gain of one from the 34-16 GOP majority of the past two years. The results were finalized on November 22 and November 25 following recounts in two close races.

According to the legislature’s official website, the fifteen-member Democratic caucus will be the smallest contingent for the party in the Iowa Senate since the early 1960s. Maintaining a two-thirds majority means Republicans will be able to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any Democratic support.

Redistricting played a role in all three districts where party control changed. The demise of ticket-splitting was also apparent, as three incumbents lost in areas where their constituents preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

U.S. Senator Joni Ernst will be a leading Congressional partner of President-elect Donald Trump’s effort to drastically cut federal spending. On November 22 her office “announced the founding of the Senate DOGE Caucus, which will work hand in hand with the Trump administration’s recently formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to identify and eliminate government waste.”

That “department” is actually a non-governmental advisory body, co-led by Trump’s billionaire buddy Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Staying outside the government allows DOGE to operate without Congressional authorization, and avoid federal rules on transparency and conflicts of interest.

In recent days, Ernst shared her spending cut proposals with Ramaswamy and traveled to Florida to meet with Trump, Musk, and others in the incoming administration.

Going all in on DOGE is a risky strategy.

State Senator Janice Weiner will be the new leader of Iowa Senate Democrats, replacing State Senator Pam Jochum, who did not seek re-election this year.

Weiner “grew up in a politically aware family in Coralville” and was a career Foreign Services officer with the U.S. State Department before moving back to Iowa in 2015. She represents Iowa Senate district 45, the chamber’s bluest district, covering Iowa City and University Heights in Johnson County. She first ran for the legislature in 2018, finishing second to Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary for a Senate district covering Coralville. She won a seat on the Iowa City council in 2019 and ran for the legislature again in 2022, when long-serving State Senator Joe Bolkcom retired.

Weiner is known for the well-researched comments she has often delivered during Iowa Senate committee meetings or floor debate.

Continuing his pattern of selecting unqualified loyalists for prestigious jobs, President-elect Donald Trump announced on November 20 that he will name former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker as U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In a written statement, Trump described Whitaker as “a strong warrior and loyal Patriot, who will ensure the United States’ interests are advanced and defended. Matt will strengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability – He will put AMERICA FIRST.”

Whitaker has no foreign policy or diplomatic background. He served as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa during George W. Bush’s presidency, and held several roles in the Justice Department during the Trump administration. For several months after the 2018 general election, Whitaker served (unconstitutionally) as acting U.S. attorney general. The New York Times reported in 2020 that during that period, Whitaker blocked a probe of “a state-owned Turkish bank suspected of violating U.S. sanctions law by funneling billions of dollars of gold and cash to Iran.”

Ann Selzer is stepping back from polling elections after conducting the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register for the last 27 years, she announced on November 17.

Top Iowa Republicans reacted by accusing Selzer of “skewing” her numbers or publishing “fake news polling”—all because her final Iowa Poll was way off the mark.

The attacks on Selzer—not from MAGA randos, but from the heart of the GOP establishment—reflect a broader Republican strategy to discredit mainstream media outlets like the Des Moines Register. They also validate unhinged behavior like President-elect Donald Trump’s call for Selzer to be criminally investigated.

Pam Mackey Taylor is the Director of the Iowa Chapter of the Sierra Club.

The U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently notified the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) that several Iowa rivers which are used for drinking water need to be put on the impaired waters list—also called the 303(d) list—because they are polluted with nitrate and nitrite. Nitrate and nitrite are toxic to humans. 

The affected rivers are the Cedar River, Des Moines River, Iowa River, Raccoon River, and South Skunk River. There were numerous water samples exceeding the federal water quality standard for surface waters used for drinking water. 

This development is significant, because it means DNR will have to take actions to reduce the nitrates and nitrates in these rivers in order to protect drinking water. With these rivers on the impaired waters list, the DNR can no longer ignore the continuing pollution of these waterways with nitrate and nitrite. 

Sixth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

The 2024 elections could hardly have gone worse for Iowa Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 13 points—a larger margin than Ronald Reagan managed here in either of his campaigns, and the largest winning margin for any presidential candidate in Iowa since Richard Nixon in 1972. The GOP swept the Congressional races for the second straight cycle and expanded their lopsided majorities in the legislature.

Support for Democrats has eroded in Iowa communities of all sizes—from large metro areas like Scott County (which voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1984) to rural counties that were always red, but now routinely deliver more than 70 percent of the vote to GOP candidates.

This post highlights the growing problem for Democrats in Iowa’s mid-sized cities. I focus on eleven counties where Democratic candidates performed well in the recent past, but now trail Republicans in state and federal races.

Changing political trends in mid-sized cities explain why Democrats will have smaller contingents in the Iowa House and Senate than at any time since 1970. Voters in six of these counties also saved U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from a strong challenge by Democrat Christina Bohannan in the first Congressional district.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.