Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

All voter registration totals listed below come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, as reported on November 1. All absentee ballot figures come from the Secretary of State’s office, as reported on November 5. Estimates for the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the map Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

All figures for in-kind spending by the Iowa Democratic Party or Republican Party of Iowa come from filings with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, covering the two most recent reporting periods (July 15 to October 14, and October 15 to the Tuesday before the election).

REPUBLICANS SET TO EASILY HOLD THEIR MAJORITY

Republicans have had a 64-36 majority in the Iowa Senate for the past two years, and there’s no doubt they will continue to run the chamber in 2025. Here’s why.

All 100 seats are on the ballot this year. But thirteen Republicans are running unopposed:

• Skyler Wheeler, House district 4
• Megan Jones, House district 6
• Ann Meyer, House district 8
• John Wills, House district 10
• Jacob Bossman, House district 14
• Devon Wood, House district 17
• Barb Kniff McCulla, House district 37
• Joshua Meggers, House district 54
• Shannon Latham, House district 55
• Jane Bloomingdale, House district 60
• Michael Bergan, House district 63
• Craig Johnson, House district 67
• Helena Hayes, House district 88

Another 36 Republicans (mostly incumbents) are heavily favored because Donald Trump received more than 55 percent of the vote in 2020 in precincts that are now part of their districts. It would be a major upset for any of the following candidates to lose.

• Thomas Jeneary, House district 3 (has Democratic opponent)
• Zach Dieken, House district 5 (has no-party opponent)
• Mike Sexton, House district 7 (has no-party opponent)
• Henry Stone, House district 9 (has Democratic opponent)
• Craig Williams, House district 11 (has Democratic opponent)
• Steven Holt, House district 12 (has Democratic opponent)
• Travis Sitzmann, House district 13 (has Democratic and no-party opponents)
• Matt Windschitl, House district 15 (has Democratic opponent)
• David Sieck, House district 16 (has Democratic opponent)
• Thomas Moore, House district 18 (has Democratic opponent)
• Brooke Boden, House district 21 (has Democratic opponent)
• Samantha Fett, House district 22 (has Democratic opponent)
• Ray Bubba Sorensen, House district 23 (has Democratic opponent)
• Sam Wengryn, House district 24 (has Democratic opponent)
• Hans Wilz, House district 25 (has Democratic opponent)
• Austin Harris, House district 26 (has Democratic and Libertarian opponents)
• Jon Dunwell, House district 38 (has Democratic opponent)
• Brian Lohse, House district 45 (has Democratic opponent)
• Carter Nordman, House district 47 (has Democratic opponent)
• Brett Barker, House district 51 (has Democratic opponent)
• Dean Fisher, House district 53 (has Democratic opponent)
• Mark Thompson, House district 56 (has Democratic opponent)
• Pat Grassley, House district 57 (has Democratic opponent)
• Charley Thomson, House district 58 (has Democratic opponent)
• Jason Gearhart, House district 64 (has no-party opponent)
• Shannon Lundgren, House district 65 (has Democratic opponent)
• Steven Bradley, House district 66 (has Democratic opponent)
• Chad Ingels, House district 68 (has Democratic opponent)
• Norlin Mommsen, House district 70 (has Democratic opponent)
• Derek Wulf, House district 76 (has Democratic opponent)
• Bobby Kaufmann, House district 82 (has Democratic opponent)
• Thomas Gerhold, House district 84 (has Libertarian opponent)
• Jeff Shipley, House district 87 (has Democratic opponent)
• Judd Lawler, House district 91 (has Democratic opponent)
• Taylor Collins, House district 95 (has Democratic opponent)
• Martin Graber, House district 100 (has no-party opponent)

The Iowa GOP has spent a small amount of money on mail or advertising for half of those 36 candidates: Sitzmann, Boden, Fett, Sorensen, Wilz, Harris, Dunwell, Nordman, Fisher, Grassley, Gearhart, Lundgren, Bradley, Ingels, Mommsen, Kaufmann, Lawler, Collins. But not the kind of money they invest when they are genuinely concerned about holding the district. (I’m still keeping an eye on some races where challengers have run creative campaigns and could overperform. Nevertheless, they are long-shots.)

Another six Republicans are running in districts Trump carried with less than 55 percent of the vote. Democrats need to compete in areas like these to have any hope of regaining a majority, and all six of these have Democratic opponents. But Democrats are not spending to support their nominees in these districts, so the odds of winning any of them are slim.

• Robert Henderson, House district 2 (Trump received 54.6 percent)
• Brent Siegrist, House district 19 (Trump received 51.8 percent)
• Chad Behn, House district 48 (Trump received 54.4 percent)
• Cindy Golding, House district 83 (Trump received 52.4 percent)
• Heather Hora, House district 92 (Trump received 54.4 percent)
• Mark Cisneros, House district 96 (Trump received 51.5 percent)

To sum up, Republicans are strongly favored in at least 55 of the 100 Iowa House seats—more than enough to maintain their majority.

DEMOCRATS STRONGLY FAVORED IN 29 SEATS

Meanwhile, fifteen House districts feature Democrats running unopposed. One of those is a gain for the minority party, as the GOP failed to recruit an opponent against Dan Gosa in House district 81 after the Republican incumbent, Luana Stoltenberg, opted not to seek another term.

• Brian Meyer, House district 29
• Mary Madison, House district 31
• Jennifer Konfrst, House district 32
• Austin Baeth, House district 36
• Ross Wilburn, House district 50
• Timi Brown-Powers, House district 61
• Elizabeth Wilson, House district 73
• Eric Gjerde, House district 74
• Bob Kressig, House district 75
• Jeff Cooling, House district 77
• Sami Scheetz, House district 78
• Dan Gosa, House district 81 (Democratic pick-up)
• Amy Nielsen, House district 85
• Elinor Levin, House district 89
• Adam Zabner, House district 90

Another fourteen Democratic candidates are running in districts Joe Biden carried in 2020. Aside from Rob Johnson and Larry McBurney, all are incumbents. It would be a big surprise for any of these candidates to lose. Except where noted, Biden gained more than 55 percent of the vote:

• J.D. Scholten, House district 1 (has Republican opponent, Biden received 53.1 percent)
• Kenan Judge, House district 27 (has Republican opponent, Biden received 50.6 percent)
• Megan Srinivas, House district 30 (has Republican opponent)
• Ruth Ann Gaines, House district 33 (has Libertarian opponent)
• Rob Johnson, House district 34 (has Republican opponent)
• Sean Bagniewski, House district 35 (has Republican and Libertarian opponents)
• Larry McBurney, House district 44 (has Libertarian opponent)
• Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, House district 49 (has Libertarian opponent)
• Jerome Amos, Jr., House district 62 (has Libertarian opponent)
• Lindsay James, House district 71 (has Republican opponent)
• Tracy Ehlert, House district 79 (has Republican opponent)
• Dave Jacoby, House district 86 (has Republican opponent)
• Ken Croken, House district 97 (has Republican opponent)
• Monica Kurth, House district 98 (has Republican opponent, Biden received 52.7 percent)

A quick note on House district 27: Although Biden’s margin was slim, three-term incumbent Judge is a relentless door-knocker and well-regarded in the community. Democrats have spent about $41,600 on mail and digital advertising to support him, just in case.

The GOP challenger in this district, Oliver Bardwell, has reported no in-kind spending on his behalf. But Iowa House Republicans produced a TV ad attacking Judge. It’s not clear how much they spent to make or broadcast that commercial.

TOP TARGETS: SIX DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS

Republicans are outspending Democrats in five of these races. Most involve Democratic incumbents, and one is an open seat.

House district 20: Josh Turek vs. James Wassell

This is among the most cynical and reprehensible campaigns I’ve seen in the sixteen years I’ve covered Iowa legislative races. First-term Democratic State Representative Josh Turek is the only permanently disabled member of the Iowa legislature. In addition to representing Carter Lake and part of Council Bluffs, he is a voice for all Iowans with disabilities. He works hard and brings an important and irreplaceable perspective to the table on many issues.

The GOP candidate, James Wassell, doesn’t have any unique experience or skills. Nor is he a community leader; he moved to Iowa within the past three years.

Nevertheless, Republicans are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to take out Turek, using a playbook repeated in several other legislative races. A television commercial falsely claims the Democrat “voted to keep sexually explicit material in elementary schools.” It’s alluding to a 2023 education law, which included a “staggeringly broad” book ban, not focused on “sexually explicit” material. The books with supposedly “graphic descriptions” of sex acts were never in any elementary school libraries; they were written for an older teenage audience.

The ad also claims Turek “sided with radical environmentalists to ban gas stoves, gas-powered lawnmowers, and let the government control your home’s thermostat.” I have no idea what bill or amendment this refers to. The legislature obviously could not do any of those things, nor have Iowa environmentalists proposed doing them.

Finally, the ad accuses Turek of trying to make it easier for the government to raise taxes at any time. This references a Republican-backed constitutional amendment that would make it almost impossible for future legislatures to raise income taxes—but would keep the simple majority requirement for a regressive sales tax hike. Turek and other Democratic lawmakers didn’t vote “to make it easier” to raise taxes; they voted to keep the status quo.

Why are Republicans spending so much on these lies, when their hold on the chamber is not threatened in 2024? Likely they realize that Turek is a potential future leader for Democrats. An incumbent’s first re-election campaign is usually when they are most vulnerable. And with no roots in the community, Wassell would owe everything to GOP leaders who have bankrolled his campaign and the conservative lobby group Americans for Prosperity, which has also spent heavily on this race.

I had to laugh at the positive ad on Wassell, which begins by saying, “For too long, the taxpayers of Council Bluffs and Carter Lake have been ignored by Des Moines politicians.” It claims Wassell will “deliver real results” like road repairs, infrastructure, and schools. Which party has had total control of state government for the last eight years? And why should their candidate be rewarded for their record of “ignoring” constituents here?

Democratic advertising has emphasized that Wassell is from the east coast and has lived in Washington, DC for longer than Iowa, adding that Des Moines politicians and special interests are backing his campaign. One Facebook ad says Wassell “is funded by the same politicians who are defunding Council Bluffs public schools to benefit wealthy private schools.” The tag line for a tv ad: “James Wassell doesn’t get us. And he doesn’t get the job.”

Trump carried this district in 2020 and could help pull Wassell over the line if he wins it again. But Turek has substantial cross-party support, including from the Republican mayor of Council Bluffs.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,050 Democrats, 6,290 Republicans, 7,187 no-party voters, 305 Libertarians, 100 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 50.5 percent, Biden 47.1 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 1,649 from Democrats, 1,704 from Republicans, 931 from no-party voters, 35 from Libertarians, 11 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $119,000 listed on Wassell’s October 21 disclosure, and $211,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $93,000 on Turek’s October 21 disclosure, and $189,000 on Turek’s November 1 disclosure

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House district 41: Molly Buck vs. Ryan Weldon

The fast-growing suburb of Ankeny north of Des Moines was a Republican stronghold for many years, but has become more “swingy” in the Trump era. Democrat Molly Buck, a public school teacher, won an open-seat race in House district 41 by just 129 votes in 2022. She has been an outspoken critic of GOP laws undermining public education, from school vouchers to Area Education Agencies.

Republicans have spent some money backing their nominee, former Ankeny school board president Ryan Weldon. One social media ad falsely claimed, “With record inflation, Molly Buck sided with environmental extremists trying to ban gas stoves and pushing mandatory electric vehicles. Buck even voted to let the government control your thermostat. Molly Buck: out of touch, out of control.” The ad didn’t cite any House bill or amendment. Banning gas stoves may be this year’s equivalent of the non-existent “heated sidewalks” Republicans used to bash Iowa Democratic lawmakers for years.

A different ad said “Buck’s backers want higher taxes and more government spending,” and claimed Buck “was endorsed by a group that wants to defund our police, putting our families at risk.”

It’s worth noting that House Republicans haven’t invested as much in this race as in several other Democratic-held districts. That could indicate that their internal polling shows Buck in a strong position. Or it could reflect the heavy outside spending to boost Weldon by the social conservative group The FAMiLY Leader and the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity. Maybe GOP leaders believe their candidate here doesn’t need the help.

I’ve seen Buck’s TV commercial much more often than advertising targeting her. In the Democratic spot, a male voice says Weldon “ran for school board to push a far-right political agenda” and is “now proudly funded by the special interests who want to ban books and abortion rights.” (Weldon lost his re-election bid for school board last year.) Then Buck speaks to the camera as a “teacher, mom, cancer survivor, and Ankeny’s state representative.” She says she’s “working every day for a brighter future for our students, reducing class sizes, and expanding mental health supports.”

Although Republicans maintain a voter registration advantage in this district, voters here split almost evenly between Trump and Biden four years ago. Given how many young people have moved to Ankeny and the strong Democratic ground game in the area, Kamala Harris may improve on Biden’s performance.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,589 Democrats, 9,359 Republicans, 9,565 no-party voters, 249 Libertarians, 52 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.2 percent, Trump 48.6 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,170 from Democrats, 2,643 from Republicans, 1,904 from no-party voters, 57 from Libertarians, 13 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $67,000 listed on Weldon’s October 21 disclosure, and about $66,700 on his November 1 disclosure (does not include independent expenditures by Americans for Prosperity or The FAMiLY Leader)

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $79,000 on Buck’s October 21 disclosure, and nearly $129,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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House district 42: Heather Matson vs. Heather Stephenson

This part of Ankeny has become Iowa’s swingiest state House district. Democrat Heather Matson defeated a GOP incumbent in 2018, lost to challenger Garrett Gobble by a narrow margin in 2020, and won the rematch with Gobble by 23 votes in 2022. For the past two years, she has been an assistant House minority leader and ranking member of the Economic Development Appropriations subcommittee.

Instead of taking his chance in Ankeny again, Gobble moved to a redder Warren County district, where he lost a GOP primary for an open seat to Moms for Liberty activist Samantha Fett. Republicans recruited first-time candidate Heather Stephenson in House district 42 and are spending huge amounts to back her campaign, with an assist from Americans for Prosperity.

Stephenson has told the media that her top priority would be tax policy. And Republicans did produce a positive spot touting her background. But most GOP-funded advertising has focused on other topics. One TV ad airing on Des Moines stations claims “career politician” Matson wants “biological males” in girls’ sports and locker rooms, and voted against “school safety funding” (an ill-advised proposal to let staff carry firearms in schools). The voice-over concludes that Matson supports “radical agendas over common-sense solutions.”

Democrats have been running a devastating contrast ad, which to my knowledge is the first Iowa political commercial to include Ring camera footage. In the clip, Stephenson asks a voter about her top issue at the state level. After the voter says, “Probably women’s rights,” the GOP candidate responds, “I’m probably not your candidate, then.”

The spot also highlights Stephenson’s donations to politicians who enacted the abortion ban, and her comment to the Des Moines Register that she doesn’t “support abortion as a form of contraception.”

Republicans maintain a small voter registration advantage here, but younger voters with no party affiliation may lean toward Democrats.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,044 Democrats, 8,151 Republicans, 8,071 no-party voters, 210 Libertarians, 33 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.0 percent, Trump 48.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,069 from Democrats, 2,294 from Republicans, 1,595 from no-party voters, 32 from Libertarians, 5 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $197,000 listed on Stephenson’s October 21 disclosure, and $180,000 on her November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $93,000 on Matson’s October 21 disclosure, and $104,750 on her November 1 disclosure

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House district 52: Sue Cahill vs. David Blom

Democrats have represented the Marshalltown area in the Iowa House for many years, but State Representative Sue Cahill is just finishing up her second term. Republicans didn’t prioritize this race in 2020, when long-serving incumbent Mark Smith retired and Democrats recruited Cahill, a Marshalltown City Council member and retired kindergarten teacher. In 2022, the GOP didn’t even field a candidate against Cahill.

But Republicans have spent more than half a million dollars on this race this fall, funding a heavy TV advertising campaign in the Des Moines market as well as mail, radio, and digital advertising. Their candidate is David Blom, who clerked for a GOP legislator in 2018 and 2019 and is now a sheet metal worker. The FAMiLY Leader has also been supporting the challenger.

Cahill serves on the House Education Committee and usually speaks during legislative debates on education bills. She has also been an assistant minority leader and ranking member on the Transportation, Infrastructure, and Capitals subcommittee.

A positive spot says Blom “isn’t a career politician” and will “fight to give working-class families a seat at the table.”

One of the GOP ads in heavy rotation now claims Cahill “has failed Marshalltown workers. She voted against income tax relief, and instead focuses on keeping explicit, even pornographic material in Iowa’s elementary schools, exposing our children to graphic depictions of sex acts. She also supports policies allowing biological males to compete against our daughters in high school sports and share locker rooms and bathrooms. Cahill’s decisions threaten our kids’ safety and undermine Marshalltown values. It’s time for change: let’s give Sue Cahill the pink slip.”

Democrats have spent around $387,000 defending this seat. I knew they must be worried when the first Democratic TV ad I saw for a legislative race was a positive spot about Cahill. During the closing week, two spots have aired on Des Moines stations. In one commercial, a male voice says the attacks on Cahill are “flat out lies. The truth: Sue Cahill raised her six sons and taught for 23 years in Marshalltown. And as our representative, she’s been a champion for kids and educators in Marshall County. David Blom’s backers support a voucher scheme to funnel millions of dollars away from our public schools to unaccountable private schools, resulting in larger class sizes and fewer services for Marshall County. Don’t be fooled.”

In another spot, a female voice asks, “Who is David Blom, really? Here’s the facts: Blom is backed by the most anti-abortion politicians in Iowa. Fact: Blom is funded by an extremist group that wants to ban abortion without exceptions, and even ban IVF and forms of birth control. Fact: now the same politicians that passed Iowa’s six-week abortion ban have hand-picked Blom to join them. Because the fact is, David Blom will do what his political bosses tell him to. David Blom is wrong for Marshall County.”

Neither party has any significant voter registration advantage. Biden edged out Trump in the precincts now part of this district, but it’s unclear whether Harris will improve on his performance here.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 5,961 Democrats, 5,822 Republicans, 6,766 no-party voters, 137 Libertarians, 35 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.3 percent, Trump 48.4 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 2,488 from Democrats, 2,789 from Republicans, 1,460 from no-party voters, 33 from Libertarians, 7 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $323,000 listed on Blom’s October 21 disclosure, and $185,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $201,000 on Cahill’s October 21 disclosure, and $186,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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House district 59: Jeremy True vs. Christian Hermanson

There are many reasons Democrats have lost ground in the Iowa legislature over the past decade. One factor is that as long-serving legislators retire from onetime safe blue districts, Republicans have successfully run for the open seat. It happened in Fort Dodge in 2018, in the Newton area in 2021, and in Clinton in 2022.

History may be repeating itself in Mason City. State Representative Sharon Steckman is retiring this year, and Republicans have spent about three times as much as Democrats in the race to succeed her in House district 59. The Democratic nominee is public school teacher Jeremy True, a lifelong resident of the area. His advertising has emphasized his work as a teacher and his family’s deep roots in Mason City. Social media ads have also mentioned quality health care and reproductive freedom.

The Republican candidate, Christian Hermanson, is a property manager and retired Air Force veteran. He has the backing of numerous GOP-aligned interest groups, from The FAMiLY Leader to the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, National Federation for Independent Business, Iowans for Tax Relief, Iowa Bankers Association, and Master Builders of Iowa.

Hermanson narrates one GOP-funded ad, in which he promises to “fight for public safety, better law enforcement training, and parents’ rights in education. I’m committed to safer communities and stronger schools.”

Other Republican ads portray True’s politics as “radical, reckless, and wrong for Iowa’s economy.” The basis for this claim? “True’s allies support open borders and sanctuary cities, which would drain our local resources.” A different ad falsely claims True “stands with those who want sanctuary cities and to defund the U.S. Border Patrol. In this economy, Iowa can’t afford Jeremy True. Too liberal. Too extreme. Too risky for Iowa.” It goes on to claim he “stands with those teaching critical race theory to kindergartners, telling five-year-olds America’s racist and so are they.”

Naturally, the ad also says “True’s allies back biological males in girls’ sports, crushing our daughters’ dreams.” (When the Iowa legislature debated a transgender sports ban in 2022, I was unable to find any example of any girl anywhere in Iowa losing a competition or failing to make it onto a team because of a trans athlete.)

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,799 Democrats, 6,650 Republicans, 9,229 no-party voters, 150 Libertarians, 44 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.3 percent, Trump 48.9 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 2,872 from Democrats, 2,507 from Republicans, 1,892 from no-party voters, 33 from Libertarians, 11 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $166,000 listed on Hermanson’s October 21 disclosure, and $214,500 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $114,000 on True’s October 21 disclosure

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House district 72: Chuck Isenhart vs. Jennifer Smith

One of the most surprising Iowa legislative results in 2022 was a recount-close race in House district 72, covering part of the city of Dubuque and some other parts of the county. State Representative Chuck Isenhart has represented this area since 2008, but the city of Dubuque has been a Democratic stronghold for more than a century.

After redistricting, Isenhart’s district no longer contained any college campuses. Democratic turnout was generally poor in the last midterm election as well. His Republican opponent, economics professor Jennifer Smith, is getting much more help from the state party this year than she did in 2022.

Smith narrates one spot, which blames “career politicians” in Des Moines for “extreme plans” with “no real solutions as inflation continues to rise, squeezing families even tighter.” I wonder why her party, which has had a trifecta since 2017, hasn’t already implemented those “real solutions.”

The attack ads in this race are a mishmash of GOP talking points on unrelated issues. The script for one 15-second social media ad: “As inflation rises, Chuck Isenhart votes against tax relief. He blocked tax cuts for Iowa families, and instead focuses on supporting biological males in girls’ sports and locker rooms. Chuck Isenhart: a career politician. The wrong priorities.”

A TV ad falsely claims “Isenhart voted to give free healthcare to illegal immigrants, making Iowa pay the price.” KCRG-TV fact-checked the ad.

This claim comes from the 2018 legislative session. Republicans introduced an amendment to Iowa’s constitution guaranteeing the right to bear arms. In protest, Democrats proposed other amendments including one to guarantee the right to health care.

The amendment doesn’t talk about free health care for illegal immigrants. It specifies “cost effective” and “affordable” which indicates the user would still be required to pay for it. The only free health care in Iowa is through federal programs of Medicaid and Medicare, which specifically bar undocumented immigrants who are here illegally. The only care they are covered for is emergency, life-saving care.

Republicans blocked votes on all of the Democratic amendments. That means Isenhart never voted on this.

The second claim in the ad says “He tried to raise taxes and block income tax cuts. He even voted against eliminating the retirement income tax.”

In 2023, Isenhart introduced a bill that would have raised the sales tax and have the extra revenue go to the outdoor recreation trust fund for water quality projects. The bill was referred to the Ways and Means committee but didn’t go any further.

Isenhart voted against Governor Reynolds’ 2022 tax cut, which changed Iowa’s income tax to a flat 3.9 percent, regardless of how much money Iowans make. That bill also eliminated taxes on retirement income. But it is worth noting, this year he voted for a bill that cut that tax rate lower and sped up how quickly it takes effect.

The same ad accused Isenhart of letting social media giants “exploit our kids’ data for profit.” It’s not clear which social media-related bill they are talking about, but the legislature did not approve any of those proposals this year. So if someone “let” social media giants do anything, it was the majority party, which controls the legislative agenda.

A different TV ad shows Isenhart referring to a “so-called crisis at the southern border.” It goes on to falsely claim the Democrat voted “to give free health care to illegal immigrants,” and says (without explaining how) “His actions lead to more illegal crossings.”

Isenhart’s social media ads highlight his recent endorsement by the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald’s editorial board, and his support for affordable health care, public education, clean water, good paying jobs, and worker rights.

Harris should carry this district, and voter registration totals still favor Democrats. On the other hand, GOP spending is more than triple what Democrats have spent to defend Isenhart’s seat.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 8,566 Democrats, 6,837 Republicans, 7,130 no-party voters, 205 Libertarians, 52 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 50.7 percent, Trump 47.0 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 4,000 from Democrats, 2,729 from Republicans, 1,344 from no-party voters, 59 from Libertarians, 5 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $223,000 listed on Smith’s October 21 disclosure, and $146,000 on her November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $31,500 on Isenhart’s October 21 disclosure, and about $59,000 from the Iowa Democratic Party on his November 1 disclosure, plus about $7,400 from the Dubuque County Democrats

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TOP TARGETS: REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS

Democrats have spent six figures against three sitting House Republicans. The GOP has spent more to defend two of the three.

House district 28: David Young vs. Laura Snider

Former member of Congress David Young ran successfully in 2022 for an Iowa House district covering part of Dallas County. Right away, he became an assistant majority leader and vice chair of the powerful House Commerce Committee.

Compared to some legislators, Young calls little attention to himself. He rarely speaks during Iowa House debates and doesn’t post incendiary comments on social media to “own the libs.” But in a sometimes fractious caucus, he’s a reliable vote for almost everything leadership wants. I’m aware of two exceptions: he voted against the 2023 bill that hamstrung the State Auditor’s office, and the 2023 bill that imposed a new asset test and other restrictions on food assistance and other federal benefits. Young also voted against a controversial bill limiting local government authority to regulate stormwater—but flipped his vote a few days later when leaders brought the measure (backed by many business interests) to the floor again.

First-time candidate Laura Snider is an assistant county attorney who has previously worked as a public defender. In an apparent nod to her side gig of writing legal thrillers, Republicans have used imagery of books opening or closing in two of their attack ads. In one spot, spooky music plays as a book called “Laura Snider A Nightmare for Iowa” opens. A female voice asks viewers to “Imagine a future where Laura Snider’s radical agenda turns Iowa into a nightmare.” Without any supporting facts, the ad claims “Snider supports using your tax dollars to fund benefits for illegal immigrants, taking money away from public safety and school funding. While Iowa families are burdened with skyrocketing grocery bills, Laura funds tax dollars into illegal immigrants. If we let her write Iowa’s story, it’ll be a nightmare for all of us.”

It’s embarrassing to see Young sign off on this string of lies. As he knows, undocumented immigrants don’t qualify for benefits, and Snider hasn’t proposed otherwise.

This district includes the part of West Des Moines that’s in Dallas County, a suburban area that has become less red in recent years. It’s a safe bet that most voters here (even many Republicans) are pro-choice. So cash-strapped House Democrats have been running a TV ad that bashes Young and State Representative Bill Gustoff on their record of restricting reproductive freedom.

A female voice says, “At six weeks, many women don’t even know they’re pregnant. But because of politicians Bill Gustoff and David Young, six weeks is when abortion is now banned in Iowa. Gustoff and Young voted for Iowa’s abortion ban. But they didn’t stop there. Gustoff and Young both voted against exceptions for rape or incest, and even voted for a bill that endangers IVF. What will they take next? Bill Gustoff and David Young are wrong for Iowa.”

Here’s background on a “fetal homicide” bill the House approved this year, which sought to smuggled personhood language into Iowa Code. Experts agree that could threaten IVF.

Young takes several advantages into election day. His party has more registered voters in the district and has spent at least $623,000 to save his job. In addition, he’s never been as intensely disliked as some other Republican lawmakers, such as former State Senator Jake Chapman (who lost the 2022 election in the Senate district that includes House district 28).

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,920 Democrats, 8,700 Republicans, 9,194 no-party voters, 220 Libertarians, 37 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.0 percent, Trump 48.8 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,217 from Democrats, 3,388 from Republicans, 1,978 from no-party voters, 59 from Libertarians, 7 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $340,000 listed on Young’s October 21 disclosure, and about $283,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $21,000 on Snider’s October 21 disclosure, and $98,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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House district 40: Bill Gustoff vs. Heather Sievers

Gustoff has only been in the legislature for two years, but he’s been a Republican power broker for much longer. The attorney and former Iowa GOP State Central Committee member has also been active in the anti-vaccine and homeschooling movements. But in the state House he has tried to reinvent himself as an advocate for public education. Leaders let him floor manage a teacher pay bill, for instance.

Heather Sievers, a nurse and first-time candidate, decided to run for the legislature after Republicans messed with the Area Education Agencies. Her family has received essential services from the AEA since her daughter was an infant.

A Democratic-funded television commercial tells that story in a powerful way.

Sievers notes, “Bill Gustoff voted against children like my daughter in Southeast Polk schools, and slashed Area Education Agency services for our kids. When I felt thousands and thousands of families’ hearts break across the state, I put my name on the ballot.”

As mentioned above, another Democratic spot hits Gustoff and Young for supporting abortion bans.

The GOP has poured nearly $600,000 into this race. One positive Republican ad shows Gustoff being goofy with his wife and kids while bragging about his supposed work to help education and “tackle rising costs.”

Mostly I’ve seen negative ads on Des Moines stations, though. Without explaining why, one ad asserts that “Heather Sievers means higher taxes, fewer safeguards, and more strain on your wallet,” concluding, “We can’t afford Heather Sievers.”

Of course, the GOP brought their anti-trans lies into this race too, with an ad claiming Sievers “ignores medical experts, pushing for sex changes on minors and allowing explicit materials in elementary schools.”

This part of eastern Polk County used to be largely Democratic, but Altoona leans more Republican than some other Des Moines suburbs. Trump carried the precincts now part of House district 40 by about 4 points in 2020. I will be curious to see whether Harris can improve on Biden’s showing.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,139 Democrats, 7,363 Republicans, 8,057 no-party voters, 214 Libertarians, 37 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 50.9 percent, Biden 46.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 4: 2,639 from Democrats, 1,987 from Republicans, 1,373 from no-party voters, 32 from Libertarians, 4 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $324,500 listed on Gustoff’s October 21 disclosure, and about $267,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $133,000 on Sievers’s October 21 disclosure, and $199,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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House district 43: Eddie Andrews vs. Tiara Mays-Sims

Eddie Andrews’ surprise victory over State Representative Karin Derry was one of the most disappointing Iowa legislative results for Democrats in 2020. Redistricting made this part of the northwest Des Moines suburbs a little bluer. Harris should beat Trump in these precincts, and the Democratic GOTV effort is massive, because House district 43 makes up half of one of this year’s most competitive Iowa Senate races.

Surprisingly, I couldn’t find any attack ads targeting Democratic challenger Tiara Mays-Sims, a community advocate and board member of Heartland Area Education Agency. This race is also unusual in that House Democrats have spent more than Republicans. For whatever reason, the GOP is less invested in saving Andrews’ political career.

Republicans are promoting the incumbent on streaming services and social media as a voice for lower taxes, stronger schools, and better health care. One ad says Andrews is “fighting back” against the high cost of living by voting to cut taxes and increase school funding “without putting more strain on family budgets.” The commercial concludes, “Eddie Andrews: Less government waste, lower taxes, and a better life for you.”

The Democratic strategy here is to hit Andrews hard on reproductive rights. A TV ad includes a clip of Andrews telling an interviewer he is “100 percent pro-life” and doesn’t support any exceptions. A female narrator adds, “And Eddie Andrews meant it. He voted to strip away abortion rights in the Iowa legislature. And now Iowa women are living under one of the strictest abortion bans in the country. If Andrews stays our representative, IVF and fertility treatments could be at risk. The stakes are clear. We must vote Andrews out.”

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,769 Democrats, 8,302 Republicans, 7,605 no-party voters, 204 Libertarians, 33 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 51.4 percent, Trump 46.6 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,484 from Democrats, 2,881 from Republicans, 1,886 from no-party voters, 49 from Libertarians, 5 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: nearly $37,000 listed on Andrews’ October 21 disclosure, and about $48,500 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: nearly $55,000 on Mays-Sims’ October 21 disclosure, and nearly $110,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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OTHER DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS TO WATCH

Iowa House district 39: Rick Olson vs. Troy Clark

For decades, no one would have given this east-side district a moment’s thought. And neither party is targeting House district 39 this year. But working-class areas like this are less solidly blue than they used to be. In 2022, Republicans tested the waters by spending about $15,000 on digital advertising to support their challenger, Mark Weatherly. He fell 678 votes short against longtime State Representative Rick Olson.

I’m watching to see whether Trump manages to improve on his 2020 showing in this area. Either way, I wouldn’t advise Democrats to take this seat for granted when Olson eventually retires.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,687 Democrats, 5,728 Republicans, 6,791 no-party voters, 207 Libertarians, 39 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 51.5 percent, Trump 46.3 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 2,205 from Democrats, 1,328 from Republicans, 846 from no-party voters, 21 from Libertarians, 1 from voters with some other affiliation

no in-kind spending by either party

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Iowa House district 80: Aime Wichtendahl vs. John Thompson

In June, I wrote a more detailed preview of this race and profile of Hiawatha City Council member Aime Wichtendahl, who could become Iowa’s first transgender state legislator. Neither party has spent a lot of money in this blue district. But you never know what may happen in an open-seat race. Republicans dropped some late mail attacking Wichtendahl, which hit mailboxes after thousands of people had already cast their ballots.

It would signal big problems for Iowa Democrats if they fail to hold this House seat.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,881 Democrats, 7,101 Republicans, 8,304 no-party voters, 199 Libertarians, 71 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 53.9 percent, Trump 43.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 4: 2,933 from Democrats, 2,276 from Republicans, 1,547 from no-party voters, 35 from Libertarians, 16 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $9,750 listed on Thompson’s October 21 disclosure, and about $8,600 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: $5,750 on Wichtendahl’s October 21 disclosure, and nearly $21,000 on her November 1 disclosure

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OTHER REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS TO WATCH

I’m keeping an eye on several other House races where either Republicans have spent heavily to defend their incumbents, or the districts would be essential to any future Democratic majority.

Iowa House district 46: Dan Gehlbach vs. Lynne Campbell

This is a fairly red area, including the Dallas County portions of Urbandale, Woodward, and Granger, and Grimes in Polk County. But I’m curious to see whether Trump performs as well here as he did in 2020. Republicans were concerned enough to spend at least $223,000 to help first-term State Representative Dan Gehlbach. Democrats purchased a small amount of mail for their candidate, longtime educator and conservation advocate Lynne Campbell.

In his positive ad, Gehlbach touts his work to raise teacher pay and support school funding.

For a change of pace, the attack ad in this campaign doesn’t scapegoat trans kids. Instead, Republicans claim Campbell “doesn’t even pay her own taxes” while opposing tax cuts for others. Echoing commercials against other Democratic candidates, the spot also falsely accuses Campbell of supporting open borders and defunding Border Patrol.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,502 Democrats, 9,044 Republicans, 9,440 no-party voters, 196 Libertarians, 37 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 51.3 percent, Biden 46.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 2,541 from Democrats, 2,843 from Republicans, 1,767 from no-party voters, 44 from Libertarians, 5 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $173,600 listed on Gehlbach’s October 21 disclosure, and about $50,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $12,400 on Campbell’s November 1 disclosure

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Iowa House district 69: Tom Determann vs. Randy Meier

Democrats represented Clinton in the Iowa House for decades until State Representative Mary Wolfe retired in 2022. Boosted by low Democratic turnout in that midterm and heavy GOP spending on his race, Clinton County Supervisor Tom Determann won the open seat in House district 69.

Like several other Mississippi River counties, Clinton had been drifting toward Republicans for a while and was one of the Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump “pivot” counties. But this district doesn’t cover the whole county, and in theory should be more friendly to Democrats.

Challenger Randy Meier didn’t get much help from his party—just a little bit of mail and digital advertising.

Meanwhile, House Republicans have spent at least $114,000 to boost Determann, including a TV and social media ad that portrays Meier as a “member of an organization pushing radical environmental policies.” According to the ad, those policies (which are not explained) would shut down industries, cost jobs, and make it harder for families to get by. “Everything will cost more,” the narrator warns. “Meier’s policies hit your wallet with higher bills, expensive goods, and fewer jobs. Iowans can’t afford Randy Meier’s radical agenda. It costs too much.”

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,687 Democrats, 6,612 Republicans, 9,877 no-party voters, 143 Libertarians, 53 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 50.3 percent, Biden 47.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,268 from Democrats, 2,786 from Republicans, 2,333 from no-party voters, 23 from Libertarians, 7 from voters with another affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $55,500 on Determann’s October 21 disclosure, and about $58,500 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $8,600 on Meier’s October 21 disclosure

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House district 93: Gary Mohr vs. Mindy Smith-Pace

State Representative Gary Mohr isn’t an easy target. He has a lot of clout at the statehouse as chair of the House Appropriations Committee. He voted against the unpopular school voucher bill in 2023 as well as this year’s overhaul of Area Education Agencies. And this Quad Cities area district voted for Trump in 2020, though by less than the Republican’s statewide margin of victory, and less than you would expect given the GOP’s voter registration advantage.

Democrats haven’t spent money to back challenger Mindy Smith-Pace. And Republicans didn’t buy television air time here. They spent a modest amount on mail, digital advertising, and text messages.

I’m watching this race to see whether Democrats can make any gains in Scott County’s suburbs. Someday, as an open seat, this area might become more competitive.

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,760 Democrats, 9,448 Republicans, 10,112 no-party voters, 186 Libertarians, 34 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 50.7 percent, Biden 47.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,335 from Democrats, 4,169 from Republicans, 2,777 from no-party voters, 42 from Libertarians, 11 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $13,000 listed on Mohr’s October 21 disclosure, and about $30,600 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $1,000 from the Scott County Democrats on Smith-Pace’s October 21 disclosure

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Iowa House district 94: Mike Vondran vs. Tracy Jones

This district in the Quad Cities area leans Republican. But the GOP may have seen something in their polling that worried them, because the party has poured about $450,000 into defending State Representative Mike Vondran’s seat. Vondran defeated long-serving Democratic incumbent Phyllis Thede in 2022.

In an ideal world, Democrats would be able to fund a challenge to a first-term incumbent in any remotely competitive district. And Tracy Jones is a passionate messenger on the most salient issue for many voters. When she was just a toddler, her mother tragically died because she was unable to access abortion in the pre-Roe era.

Unfortunately, House Democrats couldn’t afford to invest in this race. Republicans have had the airwaves all to themselves for an incoherent ad falsely claiming, “Tracy Jones would take Iowa down a dangerous road and make things worse. Jones is backed by groups that want to defund the police and eliminate the U.S. Border Patrol. Say no to Tracy Jones. Protect our Iowa jobs and small businesses.”

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 6,889 Democrats, 8,141 Republicans, 9,555 no-party voters, 189 Libertarians, 49 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 49.8 percent, Biden 48.0 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,358 from Democrats, 3,663 from Republicans, 2,526 from no-party voters, 55 from Libertarians, 9 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $270,000 listed on Vondran’s October 21 disclosure, and about $180,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: $0

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House district 99: Matthew Rinker vs. Jim Beres

In 2022, Burlington joined the list of mid-sized Iowa cities that have voted out Democratic state legislators, when Republican Matt Rinker, a former military police officer and Iraq War veteran, defeated long-serving Iowa House Democrat Dennis Cohoon by about 460 votes.

Winning back districts like this one would be essential to building back toward a House majority. And a presidential election cycle would be the right time to do it, since Democratic turnout tends to be higher. But Democrats haven’t given their candidate, retired attorney Jim Beres, the resources it would likely take to defeat a sitting lawmaker.

Republicans have spent nearly a quarter of a million dollars defending Rinker’s seat. Some of that money went toward a TV ad that—you guessed it—claims Beres backs “teaching critical race theory to five-year-olds, forcing girls to compete with biological males in sports, and endorsing irreversible sex changes for minors.” The ad concludes Beres is “focused on radical policies, ignoring the real challenges facing hard-working Iowans. Jim Beres: too extreme, too liberal, and too dangerous for Iowa.”

Registered voter totals, as of November 1: 7,790 Democrats, 6,412 Republicans, 8,344 no-party voters, 207 Libertarians, 53 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 50.0 percent, Biden 47.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of November 5: 3,297 from Democrats, 2,542 from Republicans, 1,610 from no-party voters, 61 from Libertarians, 4 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $119,000 listed on Rinker’s October 21 disclosure, and about $124,000 on his November 1 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $23,000 on Beres’ November 1 disclosure