Eleven Iowa Senate races to watch in 2024

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

All voter registration totals listed below come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, as reported on October 1. All absentee ballot figures come from the Secretary of State’s office, as reported on October 29. Estimates for the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the map Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

All figures for in-kind spending by the Iowa Democratic Party or Republican Party of Iowa come from filings with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, covering the most recent reporting period (July 15 to October 14). I will update those spending figures after the final pre-election disclosures become publicly available on November 1.

I focus on in-kind spending for the top-tier races, because candidates in battleground Iowa legislative campaigns typically give most of their funds to the state party. The party then pays for most direct mail and/or television, radio, and digital advertising.

THE BIG PICTURE

Republicans have had a 34-16 majority in the Iowa Senate for the past two years, and there’s no doubt they will continue to run the chamber in 2025. Here’s why.

The 25 senators representing odd-numbered districts are not up for re-election this year. Sixteen are Republicans, and nine are Democrats.

Of this year’s 25 Senate races in even-numbered districts, four feature incumbents running unopposed: Republicans Jeff Taylor (Senate district 2), Tim Kraayenbrink (Senate district 4), and Charlie McClintock (Senate district 42), and Democrat Janet Petersen (Senate district 18).

That guarantees nineteen seats for Republicans and ten for Democrats following the November election.

Another ten incumbents have challengers but are running in districts that strongly favor their own party, which I define as a district where Donald Trump or Joe Biden received more than 55 percent of the 2020 presidential vote. It would be a major upset for any of the following candidates to lose.

Jason Schultz (R, Senate district 6)—has Libertarian opponent
Mark Costello (R, Senate district 8)—has Democratic opponent
Amy Sinclair (R, Senate district 12)—has Democratic opponent
Jesse Green (R, Senate district 24)—has Democratic opponent
Dennis Guth (R, Senate district 28)—has Democratic opponent
Mike Klimesh (R, Senate district 32)—has Democratic opponent
Dan Zumbach (R, Senate district 34)—has Democratic opponent
Adrian Dickey (R, Senate district 44)—has independent opponent
Mark Lofgren (R, Senate district 48)—has Democratic opponent
Claire Celsi (D, Senate district 16)—has Libertarian opponent

Assuming all of those incumbents win another term, Republicans would hold at least 28 Iowa Senate seats and Democrats at least eleven seats in 2025.

That leaves eleven Iowa Senate races, which will determine the size of the GOP majority.

FOUR TOP-TIER BATTLEGROUNDS

Three of the four most competitive Iowa Senate races are happening in the Des Moines metro area.

Senate district 22: Brad Zaun vs. Matt Blake

Five-term incumbent Zaun is by far the most endangered Iowa Senate Republican. He is the only GOP senator up for re-election in a district Biden carried in the last presidential election. Zaun outperformed the top of the GOP ticket in 2020, but redistricting made his mostly suburban territory bluer. He lost Republican-leaning Grimes and picked up a small, largely Democratic area in northwest Des Moines.

Zaun was the first Iowa legislator to endorse Trump in 2015, and he hasn’t distanced himself from the former president. On the contrary: he attended many of Trump’s Iowa rallies last year, often getting a shout out from the presidential candidate, who affectionately calls Zaun “the Marlboro Man.”

Democratic challenger Matt Blake, a former Urbandale City Council member, has been an energetic campaigner and strong fundraiser. He has raised more than $543,000 for this campaign, including $384,000 in the most recent reporting period covering mid-July to mid-October. (The largest donor was the PAC for America’s Future, which gave $200,000.)

Most of Blake’s expenditures during the general election campaign went to the Iowa Democratic Party, which has spent more than $300,000 on his behalf: about $194,000 for television commercials, $78,000 for direct mail, $22,402 for “display” advertising, and $8,000 for digital ads. The Save the Children Action Network has spent more than $50,000 to help Blake, and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Iowa PAC has contributed digital advertising worth $4,240.

Zaun has raised only about $191,000 for his current campaign, but the Iowa GOP has spent roughly $653,000 on the district, including more than $450,000 for television advertising, $98,000 for digital ads, $43,000 for radio, and $38,000 for direct mail. Two other groups, the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity and the Christian conservative organization The FAMiLY Leader, have combined to spend at least $105,000 backing Zaun as well.

Republican advertising in the Senate district 22 race has accused Blake of supporting tax hikes on the Urbandale city council and has blamed the Democrat for everything from inflation to student loan forgiveness. Zaun has also run some positive radio ads featuring female voices who vouch for his record on several issues. (Those ads don’t mention that he was a leading advocate for Iowa’s near-total abortion ban.)

The closing GOP TV ad features the senator’s wife, Dede Zaun. She condemns what she calls attacks on her family and vouches for her husband on expanding health care for women, raising teacher pay, and (supposedly) protecting IVF.

Democrats have two TV ads in rotation on Des Moines stations. One includes photographs from Blake’s military service in Iraq. The candidate says, “I was proud to serve our country and defend our freedoms in Iraq. So it shocked me to see politicians here take freedom away from Iowa women with their cruel abortion ban.” He promises to provide “common sense” in the Iowa Senate: “putting Iowa women in charge of their own medical decisions, from abortion to contraception and IVF.” He also promises to stand up for public schools and against private vouchers. That ad does not name Zaun, but in social media posts, Blake has highlighted that his opponent supported school book bans, the expensive school voucher scheme, and of course the abortion ban.

A second Democratic-funded spot has footage of Zaun (a longtime supporter of “personhood” legislation) saying that banning abortion was “the reason why I ran.” In other clips, Zaun agreed that he wants to ban abortion with no exceptions and said he’s “real proud” of his work in this area. A narrator notes that Zaun banned abortion before many women know they’re pregnant and wants to take the ban further.

There’s no doubt that the majority of Senate district 22 residents are pro-choice. The question is whether a significant number of suburban voters will overlook Zaun’s stance on abortion. Democrats are right to highlight this issue as voters are making up their minds.

One factor favors the challenger: the Urbandale and Johnston area Democrats have developed a strong turnout operation, and a small army of volunteers has been engaged here since Blake launched his campaign last year. In Democratic circles, Zaun is more intensely disliked than most of his GOP colleagues in the legislature.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 15,961 Democrats, 15,255 Republicans, 14,400 no-party voters, 377 Libertarians, 75 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 53.2 percent, Trump 44.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 6,101 from Democrats, 4,474 from Republicans, 2,670 from no-party voters, 64 from Libertarians, 9 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $653,000 listed on Zaun’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $313,000 on Blake’s October 21 disclosure

Senate district 14: Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Mark Hanson

Trone Garriott’s victory over then state Senate President Jake Chapman was one of the few bright spots for Iowa Democrats in a mostly disastrous 2022 election. Chapman was widely despised for his extreme positions on abortion, public school teachers, and library books. Republicans are wisely fielding a more generic candidate this year in Dallas County Supervisor Mark Hanson.

Hanson has raised remarkably little money—only $33,288 through mid-October, which included a transfer of $2,263.80 from his old county-level campaign account. But the Iowa Senate Republicans are flush with cash and have supported his campaign with at least $450,000 in spending on television, radio, and digital advertising.

Hanson initially ran a positive television commercial, in which the candidate introduced himself as a 24-year resident of Waukee. (Trone Garriott moved to that suburb following the 2021 redistricting, which placed her and fellow Democratic State Senator Claire Celsi in the same district.) Hanson touted his “common sense” leadership to keep taxes low, make “our schools the best in the nation,” and support law enforcement in the fast-growing county.

More recently, Republicans have spent heavily on television and radio ads depicting Trone Garriott as “radical”—falsely claiming she has voted to “let cities defund the police and allow rioters to destroy our communities.” Alluding to her votes against a transgender sports ban and a school bathroom bill, the ad accuses Trone Garriott of “letting biological males compete against our girls” and share private spaces with them. It also notes she voted against eliminating the state tax on retirement income.

Trone Garriott has raised more than $777,000 this election cycle, with hundreds more individual donations than Hanson. Her largest contributor is Warren Stine, who has given $292,000 to her campaign since the 2022 election. Even without any donations from Stine, she would have far out-raised the challenger. Trone Garriott’s latest financial disclosure showed nearly $400,000 in in-kind spending to support her campaign, mostly from the Iowa Democratic Party. She also had about $318,000 cash on hand going into the home stretch. Presumably much of that will go toward paid advertising or voter contact. Save the Children Action Network has spent at least $45,000 to support Trone Garriott as well.

In her own television commercial, Trone Garriott speaks to the camera about her experience as a hospital chaplain, when she “shared in moments of joy and relief and supported families through heartache and loss.” She adds that it wasn’t her place as a minister, “and certainly not as a state senator,” to make medical decisions for people. “That’s why I fought so hard against Iowa’s abortion ban, and I’ll keep fighting to restore our rights. Because from abortion to contraception to IVF, Iowans should make those decisions—not politicians.”

Whether pro-choice sentiment can overcome the GOP voter registration advantage in this largely suburban district is the big question—especially since (unlike Zaun) Hanson is not directly responsible for the unpopular abortion ban.

On a related note, Republicans are spending heavily on TV advertising against Laura Snider, the Democrat challenging State Representative David Young in House district 28, which makes up half of Senate district 14. House Democrats are airing a TV ad that bashes both Young and State Representative Bill Gustoff (House district 40 on the east side of Polk County).

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 14,253 Democrats, 17,181 Republicans, 19,319 no-party voters, 380 Libertarians, 57 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.8 percent, Trump 48.1 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 4,927 from Democrats, 4,755 from Republicans, 2,555 from no-party voters, 76 from Libertarians, 2 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $450,000 listed on Hanson’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $394,000 on Trone Garriott’s October 21 disclosure

Senate district 20: Nate Boulton vs. Mike Pike

When Nate Boulton first ran for the legislature in 2016, his toughest challenge was winning the Democratic primary. The east side of Des Moines had been solid blue territory for decades, so the general election was not viewed as competitive.

Since then, Trump has brought more working-class voters into the Republican fold. The political map adopted in 2021 added the GOP-friendly communities of Altoona and Pleasant Hill in eastern Polk County. Though Democrats maintain a voter registration advantage in Senate district 20, the precincts Boulton now represents divided their votes almost evenly between Trump and Biden in 2020.

Taking nothing for granted, Boulton has knocked thousands of doors, starting in 2023, long before he had a declared opponent. The Polk County Democrats have mobilized volunteers and sought to encourage early voting in lower-turnout precincts on the east side, including parts of Senate district 20. In addition, both parties are targeting the race in House district 40, where half of Boulton’s constituents live.

Republicans didn’t field a candidate against Boulton when he was up for re-election in 2020. Six months ago, I struggled to find information about Mike Pike, this year’s Republican challenger. The GOP has tried to raise his name ID with more than $430,000 in in-kind spending, mostly on mail, television, radio, and digital advertising. A positive television commercial introduced the candidate as a lifelong east side resident who owns the shop where he was employed after training as a union plumber. Pike promised to roll up his sleeves and get to work on “tackling inflation, protecting your jobs and your street.”

A GOP-funded negative commercial is also airing on Des Moines stations. The spot claims Boulton “pretends to be a defender of women, but his record is just the opposite.” The ad notes that the Democrat dropped out of the 2018 governor’s race after women accused him of sexual misconduct, and that “the leading women of his own party” (including then Iowa Senate Minority Leader Janet Petersen) called on him to resign.

Echoing a theme of many GOP ads in this year’s Iowa legislative races, the spot slams Boulton’s votes against a transgender sports ban and a school bathroom bill (“he voted to force girls to share bathrooms and locker rooms with biological males, and compete against them in sports”). It concludes, “Nate Boulton already showed you who he was. This time, believe him.”

Full disclosure: I also called for Boulton to resign when the sexual misconduct allegations became public in 2018. I thought voters should be able to pick a different senator in a special election. He didn’t step down, and a subsequent ethics complaint was dismissed because all of the alleged incidents happened before Boulton was elected to the legislature. (I am not aware of any recent accusations.) No Democrat challenged him in the 2020 primary, and no Republican challenged him in that year’s general election. He was re-elected with about 75 percent of the vote against a Libertarian opponent.

While it’s certainly fair to mention the allegations as a factor for Senate district 20 voters to consider, it’s notable that Republicans don’t find such claims disqualifying when it comes to Trump, found liable for sexual abuse of one woman, and credibly accused of sexual misconduct by many others.

Democrats have fired back with two TV ads. In one spot, the candidate’s wife Andrea Boulton characterizes the attacks as “low, even for politics.” She goes on to describe “the Nate Boulton I know: a proud girl dad” who stood up for public schools and Area Education Agencies. “The son of a steelworker, Nate’s fought for workers in the courtroom and the capitol. And he defended every Iowa woman’s right to access abortion, birth control, and IVF,” Andrea Boulton tells the viewer.

A second Democratic-funded spot highlights extreme comments Pike has made on social media or podcasts. In one tweet from 2020, Pike commented, “Amen and amen” while sharing a claim that “Sending our women into the workforce” and “Sending our children into public schools” were “Two of the biggest mistakes Christians have made.” The ad also includes sound clips of Pike saying, “I approach things from a Biblical worldview,” and confirming he would have voted for Iowa’s abortion ban.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 14,757 Democrats, 12,781 Republicans, 14,649 no-party voters, 401 Libertarians, 79 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.0 percent, Trump 48.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 4,217 from Democrats, 2,827 from Republicans, 1,785 from no-party voters, 42 from Libertarians, 4 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $431,000 listed on Pike’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $302,000 on Boulton’s October 21 disclosure

Senate district 38: Eric Giddens vs. Dave Sires

There’s always one weird Iowa legislative race.

On paper, this district seems like it should be highly competitive. The new map adopted in 2021 removed part of Waterloo from Democratic State Senator Eric Giddens’ district and added more GOP-leaning territory in parts of Tama and Benton counties. Biden and Trump virtually tied in the precincts that are now part of Senate district 38, and neither party has a significant voter registration advantage. The GOP nominee, Dave Sires, has deep roots in Cedar Falls and is a former city council member.

However, Republican leaders are not spending money on this campaign.

Perhaps their internal polling showed Giddens, a former Cedar Falls school board member, well-positioned for re-election after the GOP trifecta enacted unpopular education policies. (Senate district 38 contains the University of Northern Iowa and more college-educated voters than many other legislative districts.) Or perhaps GOP leaders preferred a different nominee; Sires won a three-way primary in June.

Sires’ campaign has raised just under $88,000 this year, but $21,100 came from the candidate, and other immediate family members donated more than $18,000. The Iowa Farm Bureau’s PAC gave $4,000 and the Black Hawk County’s GOP central committee gave $2,500. In other words, less than half of what he’s raised came from grassroots donors.

The challenger has paid for some mailers and small radio and TV ad buys. Jacob Hall, who runs the conservative website The Iowa Standard, has recorded a couple of Facebook videos for Sires, and the Republican has the endorsements of the National Rifle Association and Iowa Gun Owners.

Giddens has raised more than $430,000 this election cycle. Even without counting his largest single donation—$150,000 from the PAC for America’s Future—he has far out-raised his challenger. The Democratic Party had spent around $149,000 on this race up to mid-October, which is substantial for a legislative race, but not nearly as much as Democrats are spending in districts more at risk. Giddens’ most recent disclosure showed more than $218,000 cash on hand, so in the closing weeks he will be able to vastly outspend Sires, who had only about $3,800 in the bank as of October 14.

Time will tell whether Republicans were right to concede this district, left a potentially winnable race on the table, or managed to pick up a Senate seat without trying. Most recent election cycles have seen an upset or at least one surprisingly close Iowa legislative race.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 13,795 Democrats, 14,497 Republicans, 16,083 no-party voters, 337 Libertarians, 95 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 49.1 percent, Trump 48.8 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 3,951 from Democrats, 3,443 from Republicans, 1,887 from no-party voters, 53 from Libertarians, 9 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: $0 on Sires’ October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $149,000 on Giddens’ October 21 disclosure

SEVEN OTHER IOWA SENATE RACES TO WATCH

The parties have spent less in these districts, or in some cases not targeted them at all, since this territory favors one party. Nevertheless, I will be watching the results closely. Even if there are no unexpected wins, these races could provide clues about the durability of the Trump realignment and Democratic prospects for making Iowa purple again.

GOP INCUMBENTS IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY ELECTED DEMOCRATS

Three Republicans up for re-election represent districts Democrats held in the recent past.

Senate district 10: Dan Dawson vs. Steve Gorman

Democrat Mike Gronstal represented Council Bluffs in the Iowa House for two years and in the Iowa Senate for 32 years before losing to Republican challenger Dan Dawson in 2016. Retired firefighter and electrician Steve Gorman, a lifelong resident of Council Bluffs, ran against Dawson in 2020. Both parties targeted the race, and total spending reached the $1 million mark, in part because the Omaha media market is so expensive. Gorman fell short by about 1,000 votes, losing by 52.1 percent to 47.7 percent.

Senate Democrats have raised less money overall this election cycle, and Gorman has been triaged out. His latest disclosure shows no in-kind spending by the Iowa Democratic Party. Some late support may materialize, since Gorman has donated $15,250 to the state party in recent months. But that will be a small faction of the $477,000 Democrats spent on his behalf four years ago.

Meanwhile, individual and PAC contributions have poured in for Dawson, who now chairs the powerful Senate Ways and Means Committee. As of mid-October, Dawson’s campaign had more than $281,000 cash on hand, and the Iowa GOP had already spent around $318,000 on direct mail, digital and TV advertising.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 12,116 Democrats, 13,855 Republicans, 14,361 no-party voters, 574 Libertarians, 185 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 51.2 percent, Biden 46.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 2,580 from Democrats, 2,634 from Republicans, 1,110 from no-party voters, 36 from Libertarians, 9 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $318,000 on Dawson’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: $0

Senate district 46: Dawn Driscoll vs. Ed Chabal

On paper, this largely rural district looks quite red. But both parties targeted Senate district 46 in 2022, after redistricting pitted two-term Democratic State Senator Kevin Kinney against first-term Republican Dawn Driscoll. The GOP spent more than $710,000 on behalf of Driscoll, and Democrats spent around $450,000 trying to save Kinney’s career. Driscoll prevailed by 2,195 votes (54 percent to 46 percent).

This year, the Republican faces public school administrator Ed Chabal, who is campaigning on “a fully-funded public school system,” a stronger economy in rural Iowa, and reproductive freedom. He’s not getting help from the state party. The GOP has bought some mail, radio, TV, and digital advertising for Driscoll, just in case.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 12,329 Democrats, 17,328 Republicans, 16,557 no-party voters, 332 Libertarians, 69 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 54.3 percent, Biden 43.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 3,859 from Democrats, 4,028 from Republicans, 2,155 from no-party voters, 43 from Libertarians, 7 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $97,000 on Driscoll’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: $0

Senate district 50: Jeff Reichman vs. Nannette Griffin

For many years, it would have been unthinkable for voters in Lee County or the city of Burlington to send Republicans to the state legislature. But even though Democrats still maintain a voter registration advantage, the far southeast corner of Iowa has swung massively toward the GOP over the past decade.

Republicans picked up the Burlington-based Senate seat in 2016, and nearly won the Lee County district that year, even though the party hadn’t spent money to help the GOP nominee, for reasons I never understood.

Many thought that election was a fluke, with Democrats caught napping by Trump’s appeal among blue-collar voters. But in 2020, Republicans held the Burlington Senate seat and picked up the one covering Lee County. The new map put those areas together, and State Senator Tim Goodwin of Burlington stepped aside so he and fellow Republican incumbent Jeff Reichman wouldn’t have to face off in 2022 for the right to serve out the four-year term.

Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Nannette Griffin, a small business owner in Fort Madison who grew up in Burlington. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee declared this one of their “spotlight” races in June.

But the Iowa Democratic Party hasn’t had the resources to invest heavily in Senate district 50. Griffin’s latest disclosure shows about $41,000 in in-kind spending on video production, displays, and digital advertising.

Republicans had spent around $315,000 by mid-October, including $191,000 on television air time (this district is part of two media markets) and generous budgets for mailers, radio, and digital advertising.

I’m watching the results because Democrats need to be able to compete in areas like this to have any hope of regaining the majority someday.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 14,693 Democrats, 12,878 Republicans, 16,257 no-party voters, 331 Libertarians, 87 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 53.9 percent, Biden 43.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 4,383 from Democrats, 3,241 from Republicans, 1,591 from no-party voters, 39 from Libertarians, 4 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $315,000 on Reichman’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: about $41,000 on Griffin’s October 21 disclosure

TWO REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEATS

Senate district 26: Kara Warme vs. Mike Wolfe

Two-term State Senator Jeff Edler opted not to seek re-election this year, creating an open seat in this district covering all of Marshall County and much of Story County outside Ames. Kara Warme, who has worked in the business and nonprofit sectors, defeated Gannon Hedrick in the GOP primary. She is running as a fiscal conservative who wants to strengthen schools. The Democratic nominee is Mike Wolfe, an engineer who lives on a small farm. He’s campaigning as an advocate for reproductive freedom, funding for public schools and Area Education Agencies, and making government more accountable.

Republicans have spent about $68,000 on mail, digital, TV, and radio advertising for Warme. Wolfe’s not getting any help from the state Democratic party.

Like other districts mentioned above, Democrats must be able to seriously contest areas like this one if they want to be a governing party in Iowa. Steve Sodders represented a district containing Marshall County for eight years before losing to Edler in 2016.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 11,503 Democrats, 15,086 Republicans, 15,676 no-party voters, 359 Libertarians, 82 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 53.8 percent, Biden 43.7 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 3,212 from Democrats, 3,603 from Republicans, 1,673 from no-party voters, 42 from Libertarians, 5 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $68,000 on Warme’s October 21 report

In kind spending by Democrats: $0

Senate district 30: Doug Campbell vs. Richard Lorence

Weeks after winning a knock-down, drag-out GOP primary, State Senator Waylon Brown resigned from the legislature to take a job with a renewable energy group. Republicans nominated Brown’s unsuccessful primary challenger Doug Campbell, a retired pharmacist and former Mason City school board member, to face Democrat Rich Lorence, a public school employee who works at Mason City High School.

Counties in or near Senate district 30 had some of the largest swings from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, and Democrats haven’t invested in area legislative races for some time. Voters here aren’t usually bombarded with TV ads for other campaigns, since they aren’t part of the Des Moines or Cedar Rapids media markets. The Iowa GOP has paid for some direct mail supporting Campbell, but that’s it.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 11,828 Democrats, 16,267 Republicans, 17,742 no-party voters, 298 Libertarians, 82 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Trump 55.7 percent, Biden 42.5 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 3,297 from Democrats, 3,532 from Republicans, 1,784 from no-party voters, 23 from Libertarians, 8 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: about $17,600 on Campbell’s October 21 filing

In-kind spending by Democrats: $0

TWO DEMOCRATIC-HELD OPEN SEATS

It would be a five-alarm fire for Democrats to lose either of these races. Stranger things have happened.

Senate district 36: Tom Townsend vs. Nicholas Molo

I’ve felt anxious about this district ever since Iowa Senate Minority Leader Pam Jochum announced she would retire at the end of this year. Dubuque has been reliable Democratic territory since long before I was born, and even before my parents were born. But in recent years, the county has trended to the right, with Trump carrying it in both of the last presidential elections, and GOP Representative Ashley Hinson winning more votes here in the 2022 election for Iowa’s second Congressional district.

Senate district 36 doesn’t cover the whole county. It is centered in the city of Dubuque, where Democrats fare better than in outlying areas and have a substantial voter registration advantage. For that reason, it “should” be a Democratic hold. And neither party is spending any significant resources on the open Senate race. But Republicans have spent heavily against Democratic State Representative Chuck Isenhart in House district 72, which makes up half of this Senate district.

Democratic candidate Tom Townsend was unopposed in his party’s primary election. He’s a first-time candidate for public office but has served as president of the Dubuque Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO. Townsend is a Navy veteran and licensed electrician with several union endorsements. Republican Nick Molo was born and raised in Dubuque, where he runs a family-owned business, Molo Companies (founded in 1870). Although he’s not getting help from the state party, he has spent more than $110,000 on printing, mail, “opposition research,” and polling.

If Molo manages to win, watch for Dubuque to become the next Ottumwa.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 15,147 Democrats, 11,995 Republicans, 14,690 no-party voters, 423 Libertarians, 106 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 53.4 percent, Trump 44.4 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 5,608 from Democrats, 3,387 from Republicans, 1,536 from no-party voters, 90 from Libertarians, 8 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: $0

In kind spending by Democrats: $1,470 on Townsend’s October 21 disclosure

Senate district 40: Art Staed vs. Kris Gulick

This seat containing parts of Cedar Rapids and the suburbs of Robins and Hiawatha has trended blue lately. Prior to 2022, Democrats Liz Mathis and Todd Taylor represented parts of this area in the Iowa Senate. Mathis ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2022, and Taylor is now running for Linn County auditor.

The Democratic nominee is long-serving State Representative Art Staed, who was unchallenged in the primary. Republican candidate Kris Gulick ran here against Taylor in 2022, losing by 54.6 percent to 45.3 percent. Kamala Harris should be comfortably ahead in these precincts, so Staed is the favorite to win. Democrats have spent a small amount on digital and display ads, while Republicans have paid for some mail to support Gulick.

Registered voter totals, as of October 1: 16,180 Democrats, 11,933 Republicans, 16,316 no-party voters, 387 Libertarians, 118 voters with some other affiliation

2020 voting for president: Biden 56.5 percent, Trump 40.9 percent

Absentee ballots received, as of October 29: 4,321 from Democrats, 2,617 from Republicans, 1,679 from no-party voters, 47 from Libertarians, 14 from voters with some other affiliation

In-kind spending by Republicans: nearly $19,700 on Gulick’s October 21 disclosure

In-kind spending by Democrats: $3,000 on Staed’s October 21 disclosure