The demographics are horrible for Obama, and he has hardly campaigned in the state, while Clinton has spent a lot of time there.
I’m going with 62 Clinton, 38 Obama.
For good on-the-ground reports about the campaign, read diaries by “Carnacki”:
http://www.mydd.com/user/Carnacki
The tv ad Obama ran in West Virginia can be viewed here:
http://link.brightcove.com/ser…
It’s not a bad ad, but I don’t like the halo around his head when he’s standing in front of the cross. I understand why he wants the cross in there, to combat rumors he is a Muslim, but I find the halo irritating.
At least he didn’t run on “clean West Virginia coal”!
Put your predictions for today’s primary results in the comments.
11 Comments
Prediction
I’m calling 63-37. As far as delegates go, she won’t gain much at all, but in the popular vote she will probably narrow the gap substantially. I don’t want to take anything away from Clinton, but the way race and the Muslim meme seem to be a central factor in this primary is disquieting.
icdem Tue 13 May 1:06 PM
Not big on predictions
But I’ll go with 67 – 33 thumping for Hillary.
I was just reading a Washington Post article about the racial stuff that was going on in Indiana. It seems to confirm my long-held belief that Obama’s inability to close the deal with many people has very little to do with Clinton’s blue collar appeal (beyond being the only white option) or some sort of real latino or catholic love for her. Sad commentary on our party. I’m not saying this is the only factor, as Obama does have real obvious weaknesses. But when you combine the racial aspect with Hillary’s I’m-voting-for-the-first-credible-female-candidate-no-matter-what guaranteed vote, I’m confident we are explaining 80-90% of Hillary’s staying power in the race.
rf Tue 13 May 1:52 PM
I think her support in the Latino community is very strong
She has spent more than a decade working on those relationships. I don’t agree that Latinos who chose Clinton were primarily voting against the black guy.
desmoinesdem Tue 13 May 2:50 PM
I have not come across
anything that would have shown me something significant enough Hillary has done for Latinos that would explain the Clinton/Obama numbers when it comes to your average Latino voter. Having some insight to the African-American/Latino dynamics, I’m afraid the truth is uglier than we D’s are willing to admit. Of course, we’ll never know for sure as it is impossible to poll people honestly on this topic. Overall, the racial and gender dynamics of this race are very interesting and instructive, but they may also deliver us another R presidency.
rf Tue 13 May 6:22 PM
speaking of Indiana
Little-known trivia fact that in the 1920s the KKK became very entrenched in Indiana–that state had a higher proportion of men who were KKK members than any state in the deep south ever had.
desmoinesdem Tue 13 May 2:51 PM
I am much less optimistic than most here...
Clinton 69
Obama 31
Just shy of 40…
amcsepboe Tue 13 May 5:13 PM
Obamoptimism...
I’ll be the lone Obamoptimist here and say that he doesn’t get as bad of a licking as people think.
Clinton 54%
Obama 41%
Edwards 5% (He’s still on the ballot–could be a popular protest vote)
Thoughts:
No hope of getting WV in the general. But that’s not really a key state anyway (5 EV). I don’t think the gap in popular vote will really narrow. Turnout could be low if people buy into the “inevitability” factor. Plus, Oregon will go big for Obama and wipe out any WV boost.
A few observations:
When will John Edwards endorse already? He’s been dropping hints like crazy and his name could have helped boost Obama by a few percent here. Is he wanting to do it right before Kentucky?
Also, WV Gov. Manchin probably lost a cabinet offer by not endorsing.
american007 Tue 13 May 3:08 PM
Oregon went for Kerry
so we wouldn’t get any boost from it going Dem in November. The boosts for Obama are likely to come from Iowa, maybe Nevada, maybe New Mexico, and maybe Colorado. I am not as optimistic about NC and VA, although some Obama supporters say those are in play.
The key will be holding the Kerry states. I remain very concerned about Obama’s ability to beat McCain in Michigan and/or Pennsylvania. Take out either of those and he has a big hill to climb.
I think Edwards will not endorse until one of the candidates has dropped out. I didn’t see him on Larry King yesterday, but I heard he was very complimentary toward both candidates. If he had a strong preference for Obama, he would have endorsed months ago.
I don’t imagine that his endorsement would have made any significant difference in how the various states have voted, probably not even NC.
desmoinesdem Tue 13 May 3:41 PM
I meant...
I meant the popular vote gap between Hillary and Obama that ICDem was talking about. Hillary will gain a lot of votes from WV, but Obama will likely gain at least as many in Oregon–so it’s a wash. I don’t think this will give her enough of a boost to change the game.
american007 Tue 13 May 9:19 PM
I know this has nothing to do about WV
but, I was actually more interested in the special election in MS-01. The people of Mississippi now have 3 democratic representatives out of 4 congressional districts. And by the margin Childers won, that is amazing. Who would’ve thought an 8-point victory and over 100,000 people voting in this election? Can’t wait to see the NRCC spin this one. Now we wait for their press release.
isucyclones94 Tue 13 May 10:22 PM
Also, this actually has to do with the WV primary...
I was surprised with just how many votes Edwards still received. Something like 7% of the entire vote last time I checked! That’s almost double what he got in Nevada…..when he was actually in the race. If JRE had stayed in, he may have been able to win this state. Not enough to get the nomination, but enough to play decider and keep his issues like universal health care, poverty, etc.. central to either of the candidate’s campaigns.
isucyclones94 Tue 13 May 10:25 PM