As always, post a comment if you know of any important event I have left out.

Democratic candidates, send me your public schedules (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) so I can include your events on my calendar.

I have included notices about public meetings convened by the Rebuild Iowa Office, but note that  you can give your feedback in person any day at the Iowa State Fair:

The Rebuild Iowa Office will have representatives at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines to answer questions and hear Iowans’ concerns and ideas as the state moves forward with flood recovery. RIO representatives will greet Iowans alongside members of the Governor’s Office staff at the Governor’s Office booth, located in the center of the Varied Industries Building on the main concourse.

Iowans can also go online and submit their ideas at the Rebuild Iowa Office Web site (www.rio.iowa.gov) or call the RIO office at (515) 242-5004. […]

The RIO and Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission were established by Executive Order after the Flood of 2008. RIAC is a 15-person, bipartisan commission whose members chair nine task forces focused on specific issues that will develop further recommendations to support the state’s strategic recovery and rebuilding process. The Commission reports to the Lt. Governor. Major General Ron Dardis, adjutant general of the  Iowa National Guard serves as the Commission’s chairman. The RIO coordinates all state recovery activities.

Iowans can fill out “Speak up Iowa!” surveys at the RIO/Governor’s Office booth. “Speak Up Iowa!” input sessions are taking place across the state and were created to initiate dialogue on the major issues facing the State of Iowa and provide an opportunity for official public and community involvement, with specific focus on gaining input for the RIAC 45-day Report due Sept. 2, 2008. “Speak Up Iowa!” allows residents the opportunity to voice their ideas and desires regarding the long-term recovery of their communities.

Now, on to the rest of the calendar.

Sunday, August 10:

There’s a fundraiser for Rob Hubler in Carroll, which former Governor Tom Vilsack will attend. Reception starts at 6pm; dinner at 7pm. Crossroads Bistro, 12012 Hwy 71 in Carroll. To RSVP for this event, please call the Hubler campaign headquarters: 712-352-2077.

Monday, August 11:

The Rebuild Iowa Office is holding its third “Speak Up Iowa!” public input session at the Red Coach Inn, Banquet Rooms 2 and 4, 1200 Senate Avenue in Red Oak, from 4:00 to 7:00 p.m.

Tuesday, August 12:

The Rebuild Iowa Office is holding its fourth “Speak Up Iowa!” public input session at the Iowa Central Community College Career Education Building (Rooms 108 and 110), 330 Ave. M in Fort Dodge from 4:00 to 7:00 p.m.

It’s the last day to reserve a spot at the Interfaith Alliance of Iowa’s Crossroad lunch event, which will take place on Friday, August 15. (see below for more details). For more information or to make a reservation, call (515) 279-8715 or email tiaiowa@dwx.com.

Tom Harkin is attending a fundraising reception and private classic car display in Ankeny hosted by Dennis Albaugh at 5:30 pm. The evening promises to be a fun one with over 120 classic Chevrolets for you to view.  For full details of this great event please click here.

One Iowa is holding its “Coffee House/Happy Hour” at Ritual Cafe, a time to meet like-minded friends and relax in a welcoming atmosphere, from 5:00 pm to 6:45 pm. At One  Iowa , we believe all families should have equal protections and responsibilities; the way to achieve this is through marriage.  As we continue our work toward Marriage Equality, this month Phyllis Stevens will talk about the Seven Straight Nights for Equal Rights events going on in September. Ritual Cafe, located on 13th Street between Grand and Locust in downtown Des Moines, is an LGBT-operated coffee shop and cafe offering “really great coffee and food” in an open and affirming place. For questions, please contact One Iowa at (515)288-4019, or you can visit our web site at www.oneiowa.org.

State Representative Bruce Hunter (House district 62) is holding his Re-Election Kickoff and fourth annual Hunter house party, with special guest Michael Mauro, Iowa Secretary of State. The party will take place on Tuesday from 5:00 p.m.-7:00 p.m. at the home of Bruce Hunter & Betty Brim-Hunter, 452 Wilmers Avenue, Des Moines. Suggested donation $25. Please Make Checks Payable To The Committee To Elect Bruce Hunter.

The Des Moines Business Record is honoring this year’s “women of influence” at a reception on August 12 from 4:30 to 7:30 pm (honors presentation at 5:00) at the Des Moines Marriott Downtown. You can register for the event, which costs $25 to attend, at http://www.businessrecord.com. The honorees are:

Des Moines Register columnist Rekha Basu

Former Iowa Attorney General Bonnie Campbell

Des Moines attorney Lori Chesser

Community volunteer Sheila Drevyanko

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage employee Cara Heiden

Iowa Environmental Protection Commissioner and philanthropist Charlotte Hubbell

Community activist Willie Glanton

Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge

West Des Moines City Council member Loretta Sieman

The woman business owner of the year is Sarah Grant of Sticks.

Wednesday, August 13:

From the Iowa Power Fund:

(DES MOINES)- The Iowa Power Fund board of directors will hold three of its monthly meetings in locations around the state with the second meeting being held on Wednesday, August 13 in Algona.  This meeting, as well as the last summer meeting of the Power Fund directors, will be followed by an evening public forum on energy issues.

The August 13 meeting of the Power Fund directors will be held at 10:00 a.m. at the Water’s Edge  Nature Center, 1010 250th, Algona.  The meeting will include presentations by seven applicants for funding.  They will include: Soy Energy, LLC – Biodiesel Plant at Marcus using PEF Pellet Boiler; Carbon-Free Energy, LLC – Vertical Wind Turbine Manufacturer; The cornerstone BRAD, LLC managed by Bison Renewable Energy, LLC; Indigo Dawn, LLC – Green & Main, Integrating Efficiencies into a Historic Mix; I-Renew – Energy and sustainability EXPO; TPI Iowa LLC – TPI Wind Blade Advanced Manufacturing Initiative; Prairie Land Enterprises L.C – Switchgrass.

The evening public forum is the second in a series of six annual forums hosted by the Office of Energy Independence. The energy forum in Algona will also be held at the Water’s Edge Nature Center and will begin at 6:30 p.m.

From 1000 Friends of Iowa:

NW 26th Street Public Input Meeting

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Central Senior Center

2008 Forest Ave.

Des Moines, IA 50311

Commonly known as the MLK Parkway Extension, Polk County and other leaders are now calling this project the “NW 26th Street” project. This proposal consists of

   * Reconstruction of NW 26th Street to a 4-lane facility between IA 415 and I 35/80

   * Construction of a new interchange at I-35/80 and NW 26th Street, and

   * Construction of a new four-lane roadway on new alignment from near Euclid Ave/U.S. 6 and MLK Jr Parkway and the proposed NW 26th St interchange

This will be an open house with some audio/visual presentations, and held by Snyder and Associates, the engineering firm doing the study for Polk County. This will be a meeting to provide an update on the study and collect input on proposed alternative locations for the project, including possible expansion of existing streets in Des Moines like Beaver Avenue and 6th Avenue. Another alternative presented for public comments is for expansion of transit services in the metro area to prevent congestion in the future.

This meeting is a part of the Environmental Impact Statement, a federally required evaluation for a project that has extensive environmental impacts.

Thursday, August 14:

Congressman Leonard Boswell, who represents Iowa’s third district, will be speaking at the Des Moines Register’s Soap Box (outside the Register’s Service Center on the Grand Concourse) at 1:30 pm. As part of this new Iowa State Fair tradition, the Congressman will be speaking on the challenges facing our country in these uncertain times and about his work to put us back on the road to peace and prosperity.

Friday, August 15:

The Interfaith Alliance of Iowa is holding a Crossroads lunch featuring Michele Soria of New Realities Diversity & Innovation Training & Consulting:

Do I really value diversity?

Challenging perceptions & creating new behavior

Does equity exist for all people? Is it possible? What is my responsibility to create multi-cultural inclusiveness in society?

An intensely interactive experience which will challenge your beliefs and create new behaviors.

The Crossroads luncheon is Friday, August 15 from  11:45 am – 1  pm at Plymouth Congregational Church, 42nd &  Ingersoll Avenue , Des  Moines .

Reservations are required for Crossroads and must be received by Tuesday, August 12.

Cost is $8 and is payable at the door.

For more information or to make a reservation, call (515) 279-8715 or email tiaiowa@dwx.com.

Dr. Steven and Jill Kraus will be hosting a reception at their home for Tom Harkin in Carroll on Friday, August 15th at 5:30 PM.  Hors d’oeuvres and refreshments will be provided and valet parking is available.  For the full details on this event, please click here.

Saturday, August 16:

Senator Harkin and Mayor Jerry Sullivan, candidate for Statehouse (HD-59), will attend a fundraiser for Sullivan’s campaign from 3:00 to 4:30 pm at the Great Midwestern Café, 1250 NW 128th St in Clive. Catering provided by Great Midwestern Café. Suggested donation $50 (host levels higher). Checks can be made payable to Sullivan for State Representative, 7018 Franklin Ave, Windsor Heights, IA  50322. RSVP to Mike at mmccall@iowademocrats.org or call (614) 561-9117.

1000 Friends of Iowa is holding its 10th anniversary celebration and annual meeting at the Griffieon family farm near Ankeny. The event starts at 9:00 am and runs all day. Click here to register for the meeting or find more details about the event, including a schedule and directions to the farm. Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey will be the keynote speaker. Registration costs $30, and that includes an “Iowa grown lunch.” Other events of the day include:

Presentation – Connie Mutel author of The Emerald Horizon: The History of  Nature in Iowa  Mutel will describe her new book, which offers an opportunity to understand,  reconnect with, and nurture Iowa’s precious natural world. She’ll also discuss  the functions (such as flood-resistance) provided by healthy native communities,  and offer a challenge to restore these functions through reintegrating nature into  Iowa’s working landscape.      1:30     Presentation – Erv Klaas  Dr. Klaas will discuss how reserving valuable cropland for growing corn and  soybeans creates difficult challenges to livestock owners who use riparian zones  for pasture. He will use the Griffieon pasture to illustrate problems livestock  owners face, the technique LaVon is using to remedy the problem and how  improvements to water quality and to our streams depends on a total watershed  approach.       2:00     Tour de Sprawl – Guides: LaVon Griffieon & Stephanie Weisenbach  In the past decade development has encroached upon the farmland next to the  Griffieon’s farm.  We will tour the neighborhood by bus to see the changes made  upon some of the world’s most prime soils.

I am involved with 1000 Friends of Iowa and will attend this meeting, but not in my capacity as desmoinesdem, so don’t expect any talk about partisan politics!

The Des Moines Register reported on Thursday that

On the same day a new statewide smoking ban went into effect [July 1], several bar and restaurant owners filed a petition in Polk County District Court seeking to overturn the ban.

The Iowa Bar Owners Coalition, based in Clinton County; the Clinton Organized Bar and Restaurant Association; Froehlich Properties; and longtime smoker Ron Oveson filed the petition in Des Moines on Tuesday.

The group’s attorney, George Eichhorn, said he’s seeking a temporary injunction on the enforcement of the ban until the case can go to trial.

That’s former state Senator George Eichhorn, who last month just barely lost the Republican primary to run against U.S. Senator Tom Harkin.

Some restaurant and bar owners wanted to challenge the exemptions granted to casinos and other venues. Former Governor Tom Vilsack had expressed a willingness to take the case, as long as the lawsuit was aimed at overturning the exemptions and not at overturning the ban itself. Apparently no court anywhere in the U.S. has struck down a smoking ban.

However, some people say Iowa’s new law is more extreme than other restrictions on public smoking, to the point of being “monstrous” and “vicious” and “cruel”.

In his comments to the Register, Eichhorn suggested that was the angle he would pursue:

Eichhorn said the state adopted “radical” regulations that affect a lot of private businesses but did not take the necessary precautions to protect them. However, he said he thought the state made sure that it would still benefit monetarily.

“I think that Iowa has done some rather unusual things,” he said. “We will get some good results out of this lawsuit.”

I suspect that the people footing the bill for this lawsuit will be sorry they didn’t listen to this guy:

Randy Stanford, a Des Moines small business owner who organized Iowans for Equal Rights, said no smoking ban has ever been overturned.

“They can waste their money any way they want, but there’s only one legal issue,” he said. “I wish there was a way to challenge the entire bill and be successful, but there isn’t.”

The only option is to “get rid of the unfair exemptions that are in the bill,” he said.

I noticed that Iowans for Equal Rights was not among the groups that filed the petition in Polk County on Tuesday. Anyone know whether that group may still be planning to challenge the exemptions to the smoking ban?

One thing I’ve never understood is why a smart guy like Tom Vilsack put the full weight of his administration’s political capital behind the Iowa Values Fund.

As Jason Hancock discusses in this story at Iowa Independent, the impact of that fund on jobs created and retained in Iowa has been questionable:

Colin Gordon, senior research consultant with the Iowa Policy Project, said the fear many critics of the Values Fund have is that once contracts expire and companies have received their last payment, the jobs that were created will disappear.

[…]

Companies make location decisions based on infrastructure needs, available workforce, skill level of the workforce and amenities, to name just a few reasons, Gordon said.

“It does not follow – just because a firm pockets money from the Values Fund – that the Fund can claim credit for all the jobs and investment that come afterward,” Gordon said. “We have no way of knowing whether Values Funds money actually attracts these firms. Certainly the academic research on this question is unequivocal that firms make location decisions based on local suppliers, customers and workers. No one turns down subsidies or tax breaks being thrown at them, but these are rarely the keys to investment and location decisions.”

Competition is fierce among states, IDED’s Bjornson said, and if Iowa doesn’t pony up, other Midwestern states will.

Swenson called this a “race to the bottom,” with Midwestern states trying to beat their neighbors but only making matters worse.

“Infrastructure, amenities, education, it all suffers, and thus, the Midwest becomes a less desirable place to do business,” he said. “The Midwest, including Iowa, is doing more damage to itself than anything else.”

Hundreds of millions of dollars have been doled out by the Values Fund, Swenson said, but Iowa has still grown at only one-third the rate the rest of the nation has. In 1982 Iowans made 92 percent of the national average for earnings per job. Today that figure stands at 78 percent.

[…]

Gordon said IDED can point to a few scattered success stories, but in the end the true impact of the Values Fund is murky at best.

“It diverts money from improving the things that truly matter to companies, and that hurts Iowa in the long haul,” he said. “These incentives are a short-term, politically easy fix to a much bigger problem. If you ask a business, and they answer honestly, they will say these incentives make very little difference to their final decision of where to locate.”

Count me among those who think the Values Fund is glorified corporate welfare. In some cases corporations didn’t even need to promise to create new jobs to receive money–they just had to promise not to decrease their current number of employees. But in an economic downturn, I don’t think those promises will make much difference.

Look at Lennox International. The slowdown in home construction has to be brutal for that manufacturer of heaters and air conditioners. Not surprisingly, the company will lay off 150 people in Marshalltown this August and 100 more people there next year. The Values Fund promised Lennox $6.6 million in forgivable loans in 2006, but it looks like Iowa taxpayers aren’t going to receive good value for that money.

We needed more leadership from Governor Vilsack on other economic policy issues, but he seemed to focus way too much on the Values Fund.

If anyone has any educated guesses or inside knowledge about why Vilsack believed so strongly in the Values Fund, please post a comment or send me an e-mail about it. It’s a real puzzle to me. A policy wonk like Vilsack should have been aware of research indicating that these state and local incentives are not major factors driving employment figures.

The Des Moines Register reported on Monday that a group of business owners is raising money to challenge the smoking ban that is slated to go into effect on July 1.

They have not yet retained an attorney, in part because they have not reached a consensus about the right legal angle. Some want to challenge the law’s exemptions, recognizing that there is little hope of getting the whole bill overturned:

Randy Stanford, a Des Moines small business owner who organized Iowans for Equal Rights, said no smoking ban has ever been overturned.

“They can waste their money any way they want, but there’s only one legal issue,” he said. “I wish there was a way to challenge the entire bill and be successful, but there isn’t.”

The only option is to “get rid of the unfair exemptions that are in the bill,” he said.

Stanford said the exemptions give some over-21 entertainment venues a financial advantage over others. “How can they say it won’t hurt the other small businesses when they say it’ll hurt the casinos?” he asked.

As for exactly which exemptions would be targeted, Stanford said: “That would be up to the judge. I have no clue what they would strike.”

The Register reported that some of the businesses want to retain former Governor Tom Vilsack, who said he would be open to taking the case if it focuses on overturning the law’s exemptions:

“It would be sort of reinforcing the law,” he said. “The Constitution requires you to treat people equally. … I think we have a legitimate argument.”

Vilsack said he has not yet been officially asked to represent anyone, but if he is asked, his law firm would first have to ensure there would be no potential conflicts.

“I feel very strongly about this. This is significant and important,” Vilsack said. “When we craft laws, even though there may be political reasons for exemptions, the Constitution may not recognize those exemptions.”

From my perspective, this is all good. The exemptions were needed to get the smoking ban through the Iowa House. Now that it has been signed into law, I would be pleased to see a court strike them down. That would protect even more Iowa workers and their children from the many health hazards associated with secondhand smoke.

While the casino owners and their lobbyists would fume, research suggests that their anger would be unfounded. Contrary to what many business owners in the hospitality industry believe, smoking bans do not hurt the bottom line. On the contrary, smoking bans often lead to increased sales, as well as other economic benefits for businesses. Many people will go back to places they’ve been avoiding because of the smoke.

Reflecting on Ben Smith’s post at Politico about early Obama supporters, it occurred to me that he forgot John and Jackie Norris, and I should write something about that.

Bleeding Heartland user RF was on the same wavelength. After reading my post last night, he put up this comment:

On the list of prominent early Obama supporters, I think John Norris should be there instead of Gordon.  Like you pointed out, Gordon was not onboard that early.  I saw Norris at various Obama meetings and at his IA headquarters very early.  With his background, I also suspect his input had more to do with Obama’s success than anything Gordon did.

John Norris ran John Kerry’s Iowa operation during the last presidential campaign. As a precinct captain for Kerry, I can confirm that Norris did a lot to hold that campaign together during several months of one discouraging poll after another. He made sure his field organizers kept doing their jobs and lining up precinct captains, and they made sure precinct captains didn’t panic and kept lining up supporters.

John Norris initially backed Tom Vilsack for president. He had worked on Governor Vilsack’s staff and been appointed by Vilsack to serve on the Iowa Utilities Board.

The day Vilsack ended his presidential campaign, Jerome Armstrong observed, “Whoever lands John Norris will be the winner from Vilsack dropping out.”

Norris did not take an official position with the Obama campaign, but his wife Jackie Norris joined the Obama staff in Iowa very soon after Vilsack left the race.

As RF noted, John Norris’s input must have been quite helpful to Obama’s team as they set up their campaign operation in Iowa.

In addition, I am certain that having the Norrises on board helped Obama win over many Iowans who had caucused for Kerry in 2004.

On at least one occasion, I remember a field organizer for Obama telling me that John Norris was supporting Obama after she learned that I had been a precinct captain for Kerry.

I remember talking with an active Democratic volunteer from a neighboring precinct sometime last summer. She also had supported Kerry in 2004 and was undecided at the time we talked. She mentioned that it made a big impression on her that Jackie Norris quit her job to go work for Obama.

I haven’t seen that woman in a while and don’t know which candidate she eventually picked. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama field organizers were advised to bring up the Norrises whenever they encountered former Kerry supporters.

Ben Smith mentioned that the people who backed Obama early in the campaign “could be expected to have real access, and in some cases major jobs, in an Obama White House.”

Whether or not Obama chooses John or Jackie Norris for a job in his administration, Obama’s support would be a huge asset to John Norris if he runs for any political office. Norris ran for Congress against Tom Latham in 2002, and I expect he will seek some elective state or federal office in the future.  

With potential backing from Obama, Vilsack (who I doubt would hold a grudge over Norris not supporting Hillary Clinton) and labor unions who appreciated his deciding vote in favor of a new coal-fired power plant near Marshalltown, Norris would have a leg up on rivals in a Democratic primary.

The environmental community would probably not support Norris in a primary, but I’m sorry to say that I am not aware of any Iowa Democrat whose political career suffered from not protecting the environment enough.  

Back in 2002, Steve King hadn’t yet become an embarrassment on the national stage; he was merely a crusader for intolerance in the Republican-controlled Iowa legislature. Tom Vilsack was a first-term governor nervously eyeing a midterm re-election campaign under the very popular President George W. Bush.

Seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it?

Anyway, King was obsessed with passing a law declaring English the official language of Iowa. Didn’t you know how difficult it had become for Iowans to express themselves without official acknowledgment of English’s status?

Vilsack vetoed one version of the bill, then signed the rewritten bill that came to his desk. Disappointed liberals were assured that Vilsack had made the smart play by taking the issue off the table for the November election. Besides, the new bill contained all kinds of exceptions, so it would be little more than a symbolic measure.

Well, this week a judge in Polk County “ordered Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro to stop using languages other than English in the state’s official voter registration forms”, the Des Moines Register’s William Petroski reported. (If you want to read the ruling, click here.)

In 2006 King, by then a U.S. Representative in Iowa’s fifth district, complained that then-Secretary of State Chet Culver had put voting information in Spanish, Laotian, Bosnian and Vietnamese as well as English on the secretary of state’s website.

Attorney General Tom Miller had determined such action was acceptable because the official English law allowed for “any language usage required by or necessary to secure the rights guaranteed by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, or the Constitution of the state of Iowa.”

King filed suit last year against Culver and Mike Mauro, who was elected secretary of state in 2006.  District Judge Douglas Staskal concluded that voter registration forms in languages other than English are against the law, and voided the “improper exercise of agency power.”

Miller, like Culver and Mauro a Democrat, may appeal to the Iowa Supreme Court:

“Our view is that although the Iowa English Language Reaffirmation Act requires all official forms to be in English, it does not prohibit government officials from providing materials in other languages as well,” Miller said. “We argued that position to the District Court. This principle can be particularly important in the area of voting rights of citizens.”

If this ruling is upheld, it will hamper efforts to register voters whose native language is not English.

I’m with the Des Moines Register’s editorial board, which wrote on Saturday that “it’s time for Iowa lawmakers to repeal this embarrassing law.”

They should do so because the law is mean-spirited and sends an anti-immigrant message. They should do so because it makes Iowa seem xenophobic. They should do so because it’s unnecessary when studies show today’s immigrants are learning English as quickly as their predecessors.

And to lawmakers who may have thought the law was toothless because it included exemptions, Judge Staskal’s ruling tells them otherwise. The law applies to “official action” from government, which is broadly defined. It could have a “chilling effect on speech by causing government employees to refrain from non-English communication all together,” he wrote.

There is still time for legislators to repeal the official English law this session.

Don’t let the ghost of Steve King constrain voting rights in the upcoming presidential election.

Tom Vilsack wrote an op-ed in the Des Moines Register on Sunday about global warming. For him, the answer is conserve energy, invest in biofuels and renewable energy, and develop better technology for coal-fired and nuclear power plants.

Everyone interested in a comprehensive solution to global warming should read the report Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change.

How we design our communities can dramatically increase or decrease our country’s carbon footprint. If we don’t consider these factors, sprawling development could wipe out any reduction in greenhouse gases we get from energy-efficiency and cleaner energy sources.

I highly recommend this report to Vilsack and other smart people who like to delve into policy details.

Got a card in the mail today announcing that Tom Vilsack is joining the Des Moines office of Dorsey & Whitney LLP. According to the law firm's website, the firm has 18 offices, approximately 650 lawyers, and approximately 850 other support staff.

The card lists 16 other attorneys in the firm's Des Moines office and says Vilsack “will be maintaining a general practice including but not limited to commercial law and litigation and advising clients in the fields of energy conservation, renewable energy and agribusiness development.”

Judging from the envelope, this was a mass mailing. I don't know why I got one–could have been sent to all registered Ds in central Iowa, or just people who have contributed to the Iowa Democratic Party. 

Tom Vilsack has long perplexed me. He's a talented politician who pulled off a couple of impressive election victories–especially 2002, when he had a moderate opponent in a terrible year for Democrats nationwide. What's more, he's an incredibly smart, hard-working guy. But I never could figure out his priorities as governor.

Why did he go to the mat for the “Values Fund,” corporate welfare masquerading as an economic development plan? Why did he not do more for the environment? And in particular, why was he always pushing biotech and “pharma-crops” that could contaminate food grown in Iowa and destroy the markets that Iowa farmers depend on? Why was he nowhere on any of the policies sustainable agriculture advocates have been calling for, which would be great for local economies and family farmers, as well as easier on the land?

I just didn't get it.

Then he started running for president. I took his candidacy at face value–like many senators and governors, he thought he could do a good job as president and figured, why not try, even if it is a long shot? I even defended him on some of the blogs when people would accuse him of being nothing more than a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton (trying to take Iowa out of play or at least weaken Edwards here).

Vilsack talked a good game when he was running for president. I liked what he said about a lot of issues, including Iraq. The joke in my circle of friends was that Vilsack was sounding a lot better as a presidential candidate than he had as governor. I settled on Edwards as a candidate, but a few progressives I know, including my husband, were considering Vilsack.

When Vilsack dropped out early, I thought he did the honorable thing by giving his staff opportunities to get good jobs with the other campaigns. And I agreed with what he said about the role of money in politics, even though I thought he came pretty late to that party. I don't recall ever hearing him talk about public financing or clean elections reforms as governor.

Cynics immediately assumed that Vilsack would endorse Clinton–a done deal. I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But boy was I disappointed. For someone who staked his campaign on getting us out of Iraq immediately, he found it amazingly easy to endorse the Democrat with the worst positioning on the Iraq issue. If Hillary Clinton has said or done anything to help us start withdrawing troops before March 2009, I don't know what that is.

And if Vilsack really cares about the influence of money in politics, why did he turn around and endorse the favorite candidate of corporate lobbyists and low-lifes such as Rupert Murdoch?

Reading reports of his campaign appearances with Clinton, I felt disappointed and just tired of his song and dance.

The Des Moines Register ran a big story talking up Vilsack's role in the Clinton campaign. But guess what? He didn't have coat tails when we repeatedly failed to retake the Iowa House and Senate during his governorship. And Clinton hasn't been gaining in the Iowa polls following Vilsack's departure from the race.

My hunch is that Iowans are going to prove one more time that endorsements don't win the caucuses.  

But here's the part of the article that bugged me the most:

Their personal connection through Christie Vilsack's late brother, Tom Bell, and Vilsack's loyalty to Clinton for campaigning with him at a key point in his 1998 long-shot bid for governor, were key to a decision aides described as automatic.

If his friendship with the Clintons and ambition for the VP slot or a cabinet post are that important, then he shouldn't have wasted other people's time and money on his presidential bid. Everyone has known for a long time that Hillary was running for president. Vilsack just wasn't serious about taking her on, and it makes all of his presidential campaign rhetoric–especially on Iraq–look empty.

Reminds me of why I voted for Mark McCormick in the 1998 gubernatorial primary. 

Tom and Christy Vilsack are speaking right now at the DFA training in the Cedar Rapids. They are focusing on clean elections and grassroots organizing.

As I mentioned on my personal blog earlier today former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is expected to endorse former First Lady and current New York Senator Hillary Clinton in her bid for President at a Monday announcement here in Des Moines.  We can address my confusion about the situation over at Political Forecast, but in this post I want to focus on the substantive benefits of endorsements in the Iowa Caucuses.

David Yepsen has a front-page analysis on the endorsement on the Register’s website right now.  He argues that endorsements are part of the old politics in Iowa:

“In Iowa, endorsement politics is old politics. Nobody “delivers” anything anymore, particularly in high-profile races. Yet we media people make a big deal out of them, despite the fact Iowa just doesn’t have the sort of machine politics once seen in urban areas or ethnic neighborhoods. In those places, an endorsement from a key political leader or organization means something, because that leader can produce votes for the anointed candidate. Even in those places today, such influence is on the wane.”

To his credit, he does cite many examples like AFSCME’s endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004 and Mike Blouin in 2006, Senator Tom Harkin’s endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004, and Vilsack’s endorsement of Dusky Terry in the Democratic Secretary of State primary as cases where high-profile endorsements don’t yield results.

In 2004, most statewide elected officials waited until late in the race to make endorsements.  According to the Democracy in Action 2004 page at GWU, most of the officials made their endorsements within the last two weeks in the lead up to the Caucuses.  Already in the 2008 race, Tom Miller and Michael Fitzgerald have endorsed Barack Obama’s candidacy, while Sen. Harkin had endorsed Tom Vilsack.  Their page says this:

“Whether or not endorsements make any difference on Caucus Night is debatable, but they are important in the pre-primary period when developing campaigns strive to build credibility.  Campaigns go to considerable effort to round up endorsements.  The first targets are prominent party leaders including elected officials, former officials, erstwhile candidates, and party activists.  In addition, campaigns seek support of community activists and business and civic leaders; Democratic candidates also woo labor support.

The timing and format of endorsement announcements can be significant.  A mass endorsement, with elected officials lined up behind the candidate, can draw significant attention.  Alternatively, rolling out a steady stream of endorsements over a period of time can bolster the impression of a growing campaign.  Picking up a prominent supporter who had formerly been with another campaign is regarded as a coup, worthy of a press release or press conference. “

Admittedly, the debate all depends on the statistics and results one decides to pull out.

So far, Vilsack’s endorsement might only mean that he’s encouraging his former staffers to take jobs with the Clinton campaign.  To some degree, that’s already happening.  Vilsack’s Polk County Organizer, Amanda York, has already signed on to Clinton’s campaign and was at Wednesday’s Polk County Dems Off-Year Caucus.  His former Deputy Internet Director, Kevin Thurman, also now works for Clinton’s campaign.  But Vilsack’s encouragement also might not mean as much to former staffers.  Udai Rohatgi, another Internet staffer, now works for the Obama Campaign.  Teresa Vilmain, one of Vilsack’s seasoned presidential campaign experts, is likely to sign on with Clinton as well (if she hasn’t already).  So, we’ll see where the chips end up falling.

I’m of the opinion that endorsements by local leaders are more likely to make a difference early on in the race to give credibility to the candidate and to get organization going.  High-profile officials tend to be more beneficial later on in the race, when you’re trying to reach out to undecideds and use a popular, high-profile official to say, “Your respected leader has faith in me and my campaign, please support me in your precinct caucus.”  Then again, I’m not a seasoned caucus veteran.  So, tell me what you think in the comments below.

As of 10:30 EST, Vilsack looks to quit the race.

This opens up a lot of possibilitites for people in state, and I wonder who is going to take his spot as the man with the Iowa Connections.

I’ve been getting a lot of email from Obama that makes me think he’s got a lot of former Kerryites on staff, which is either good or bad, depending on how you look at it.

Strategic Vision has released a new Iowa poll of 600 Republican and 600 Democratic likely caucus-goers.

The Democratic results are being discussed here at MyDD.

Numbers below the fold.

A while back I read an article that mentioned John Edwards being endorsed by a plurality of the chairs of the Democratic Party county committees. I can’t remember where I read this, though, and I can’t seem to find it again.

Does anyone out there have detailed information about which county chairs have endorsed presidential candidates, and whom they have endorsed? I would imagine that so far Edwards and Vilsack have the lion’s share of the endorsements at this level, but I would like to see confirmation of this.

I would also be interested in knowing how many county chairs endorsed presidential candidates in 2004 and which candidates they endorsed, if this information is out there somewhere.

Today, the National Journal released their latest rankings on the Democrats seeking the presidential nomination in 2008.  Here are their rankings:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Bill Richardson

5. Chris Dodd

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Joe Biden

8. Wesley Clark

9. Dennis Kucinich

10. Mike Gravel

Make sure to check out what they have to say about each candidate and the fundraising predictions that they are making.

Let me add a couple of things to the questions or things they are talking about in their descriptions of each candidate.  It seems that they frame Clinton’s problem as one of responsibility or the ability to appear genuine.  Iowa Democrats, in my opinion, are looking for a genuine candidate who is able, ready, and willing to admit mistakes.  John Edwards and Barack Obama easily have that advantage over her — and I’m pretty sure some Iowa Democrats are already holding that against her.

Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder are looking for some staff beyond Nevada to impress them some more and prove that he is everyone’s second choice.  Here’s some nice news that I have heard: former Iowa Democratic Party Field Director Brad Frevert has joined Richardson’s campaign as his go-to guy for Iowa field operations.  Frevert’s an Iowa-boy, and worked with Jesse Harris (who is Vilsack’s field guy), so we know he’s got Iowa field knowledge coming out the wazoo.

They note that Chris Dodd is basically raising lots of money because he’s got a cushy position as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee.  It is true, but he’s also taking leadership on restoring Habeas Corpus.  That’ll give him a little edge with which to hold on to some grassroots activists.

Finally, we get to Vilsack, and this is the question I have to ask: Does the endorsement of Barack Obama by Tom Miller and Mike Fitzgerald really mean anything?  Todd and Ambinder seem to think that’s bad news, as do the folks over at CityView’s Civic Skinny.  Now, maybe because I’m young I might be a bit naive about Iowa politics, but do Miller and Fitzgerald really have that big of a following in Iowa that their endorsement would swing Iowa voters to Obama?  I don’t believe that for one bit, but I guess I have to keep inserting the naive bit just in case.  Both Miller and Fitzgerald have been around in state Democratic politics forever and neither were indebted to Vilsack at all, so I don’t think there was a lot of pressure for Vilsack to lock up their endorsement.

And let’s not forget, Tom Miller endorsed Joe Lieberman in 2004 and Lieberman didn’t even make it to the caucuses.  I’m not saying Obama won’t make it to the caucuses (he will) but Miller seems to endorsed based on how well you’re doing early on in the race, not simply based on issues.

Finally, Joe Biden will be back in the state this weekend (or is supposed to be, but it looks like Sen. Reid might be scheduling a vote for Saturday), so I think we’ll officially be able to gauge Iowan reactions to his campaign after he’s been here as a serious candidate.

Anyway, what’re your thoughts on the rankings?  And if you haven’t already, make sure to vote in the poll on the left side of the page.

For a guy who is running for President of the United States, former Governor Tom Vilsack sure is picking up a lot of new jobs.

According to the Des Moines Register, he is joining MidAmerican Energy as a consultant.

Well, ARG has a new Iowa (and New Hampshire) poll out on the 2008 presidential candidates. Remember that their December poll was not consistent with other polls on the Democratic side, presumably because of a different definition of “likely caucus goer.” With the ARG criteria, the Iowa likely caucus goers had Clinton on top in December, like the likely primary voters in other states and nationally, while other pollsters had Edwards on top for likely Iowa caucus goers. With that caveat, it is interesting to see the trends after Obama’s announcement and Clinton’s visit to Iowa. There may be further movement with Obama’s visit to Iowa next week.

ARG, phone interviews of 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, Jan 29 – Feb 1, 07 (Dec. 06), +/- 4%

Clinton 35 (31)

Edwards 18 (20)

Obama  14 (10)

Vilsack 12 (17)

Biden, Clark, and Kucinich had 2% each, and Richardson and Dodd had 1%. 13% were undecided.

There is a gender bias, with 39% of the Iowa women surveyed supporting Clinton, and 30% of the men surveyed supporting Clinton. If only previous caucus goers were counted, Clinton had 29% and Edwards had 25%.

Not a huge change from December, but Clinton and Obama did move up some, and Edwards and Vilsack dropped some. For all of his efforts, Vilsack is going in the wrong direction in his home state. It isn’t just slow recognition of the their governor as presidential material, because Richardson comes out on top with 28% among 2008 candidates in New Mexico.

Identifying likely caucus goers at this stage is a crap shoot, but the trends are interesting.

Does Vilsack have a chance of winning the Iowa caucuses?