I haven’t been an optimist about Christie Vilsack’s chances of taking down Representative Steve King, to put it mildly. But over the past month I have become convinced that King and Washington Republicans are genuinely concerned about holding Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district.

Follow me after the jump for a closer look at King’s campaign strategy, along with polling data and some other news from the IA-04 race. Later this week I will post a similar piece about the Vilsack campaign, and a separate review of outside groups’ advertising in this district.

Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.

Looking at the daily numbers I’ve archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State’s Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.  

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of October 1 (pdf), Iowa had 675,171 active no-party voters statewide, 622,176 active Republicans, and 611,284 active Democrats.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about the Congressional races are welcome in this thread.

Following a month-long summer recess, members of the U.S. House and Senate worked for less than three weeks before adjourning in late September until after the general election. Congress will hold only “pro-forma” sessions for the next month, presumably to prevent President Barack Obama from making recess appointments.

Follow me after the jump for a review of how the Iowans voted (or did not vote) on the most significant legislation that came up during the past few weeks.  

Early voting begins today in Iowa, 40 days before the general election. Bleeding Heartland covered the three ways to vote early here and is updating absentee ballot numbers every weekday here. After the jump I’ve posted more links and news related to the early voting process.

About one-third of the 1,528,715 Iowans who cast ballots in the 2008 general election voted early. Absentee voting saved several Democratic incumbents in the state House and Senate that year. Bleeding Heartland will update these tables on weekdays until election day, using figures posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website (click the elections tab, then voters, then 2012 general election).

SEPTEMBER 27 UPDATE: Now adding totals for absentee ballots received by county auditors as well as absentee ballots requested each weekday.

SEPTEMBER 28 UPDATE: When an Iowan votes early in person at the auditor’s office, that counts as an absentee ballot requested by the voter and as an absentee ballot received by the auditor on the same day.

OCTOBER 21 UPDATE: Recent polls by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist and Public Policy Polling suggest that President Barack Obama has a 2:1 lead among Iowans who have already voted. For that to be true, the majority of no-party voters who cast early ballots would have to be supporting the president.

Early voting starts in Iowa on September 27, but candidates have been encouraging supporters to request early ballots for months. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that registered Democrats have submitted far more absentee ballot requests than have Republicans, statewide and in all four Congressional districts. Details are below.

UPDATE: Added a table with the latest numbers as of September 18. SECOND UPDATE: Will be updating the absentee ballot totals daily here.

This thread is for any comments related to the 11th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. I’ve posted statements released by Iowa politicians after the jump. I shared my memories of that awful day on the 10th anniversary of the attacks.

I recommend reading Kurt Eichenwald’s op-ed piece based on his research for the new book 500 Days: Secrets and Lies in the Terror Wars. The latest issue of Vanity Fair magazine contains an excerpt from the book. Last year Esquire compiled links to all that magazine’s stories about the attacks. This piece based on an interview with survivor Michael Wright was riveting.

The two major-party presidential candidates held rallies yesterday in Iowa’s key Republican and Democratic strongholds. Mitt Romney was in Sioux County, which has voted more than 80 percent Republican in past presidential elections. Barack Obama and Joe Biden were in Johnson County, which has delivered big margins to Democrats who won close statewide elections in the past.

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 666,279 active no-party voters statewide, 620,868 active Republicans, and 602,636 active Democrats. That represents slightly larger gains for Democrats than Republicans since the beginning of August. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

The Rothenberg Political Report’s latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be “Democrat favored.” He puts the the “Toss-up/tilt Republican” label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven’t seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can’t keep pace with Latham’s fundraising. But he is an incumbent who’s represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.

At this time four years ago, Barack Obama’s campaign had about 30 field offices up and running in Iowa, compared to six offices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Obama’s campaign has had eight Iowa field offices open this summer and is rolling out another 26 offices around Iowa this weekend. So far, Mitt Romney’s campaign has ten Iowa field offices, in addition to the unified Republican headquarters in Urbandale.

After the jump, I compare the field office locations for each presidential campaign, grouped by Iowa Congressional district. Where relevant, I’ve also noted competitive Iowa House and Senate districts near the Obama and Romney field offices, although I doubt either presidential campaign will do much for down-ticket Democratic or Republican candidates.

Republican candidates and elected officials are falling over themselves today denouncing U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin of Missouri for his claim that women cannot become pregnant in a “legitimate rape” situation. In contrast, Representative Steve King passed on an opportunity to pile on during a public appearance in northwest Iowa. Democratic challenger Christie Vilsack’s campaign is doing its best to seize the moment.

Democratic candidate Christie Vilsack launched her first television commercial across Iowa’s fourth Congressional district yesterday. The 30-second spot depicts the former Iowa first lady as a nonpartisan figure who’s willing to work with everyone to represent Iowa values. Follow me after the jump for the video, annotated transcript, and analysis of the Vilsack strategy.

I’ve also enclosed below the transcripts for the three radio advertisements Vilsack’s campaign has broadcast this summer. Whereas the tv spot does not mention Vilsack’s opponent by name, the radio ads paint an unflattering picture of Representative Steve King as a creature of Washington. A future Bleeding Heartland post will feature King’s campaign advertising.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced his running mate this morning: Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the chair of the U.S. House Budget Committee. The two men are launching a four-day bus tour today. I don’t know what surprises me more: Romney not choosing Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, or Ryan’s willingness to give up his committee chairmanship for a shot at the vice presidency.

Democratic House incumbents and challengers have already been running against the Ryan budget. Iowa’s representatives split on party lines when the House approved this plan in April 2011, and Representative Leonard Boswell was eager to draw this contrast between himself and IA-03 opponent Representative Tom Latham. Having Ryan on the Republican ticket ensures that tax and budget issues will be at the center of the presidential campaign discourse this fall. Ryan’s approach to solving the long-term deficit problem asks virtually nothing of wealthy people but would devastate Medicaid, not to mention the Medicare program for future retirees. After the jump I’ve posted excerpts from a new report on the Ryan plan’s impact on state budgets, along the Iowa Policy Project’s comment on how the Ryan budget would affect Iowa in particular.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I will update this post with Iowa reaction and more news and links after the jump. Representative Steve King was enthusiastic about the pick.

The Iowa State Fair opens this morning and runs through the evening of August 19. This thread is for any comments about the fair or advice for enjoying what can be an overwhelming experience. I’ve posted my suggestions after the jump.

All the Democratic and Republican candidates from Iowa’s four Congressional districts are scheduled to speak at the Des Moines Register’s “soapbox” between August 13 and 17. That schedule is at the end of this post. UPDATE: Some of the speaking times have changed on the soapbox schedule, and a few new speakers have been added, including Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack.

When is a vote for extending the Bush tax cuts at all income levels “protecting the middle class”? Apparently, only when Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) does it.

For the fifth month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 659,838 active no-party voters statewide, 620,584 active Republicans, and 598,995 active Democrats.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is still Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,723 registered Democrats, 1,791 Republicans, and 1,751 no-party voters as of August 2.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.  

The U.S. House responded to this year’s widespread drought by passing an agricultural disaster assistance bill yesterday with unanimous support from Iowa’s five representatives. However, not all the Iowans were enthusiastic about the effort.

Meanwhile, four of Iowa’s five House members voted against adjourning for the August recess yesterday, in large part because of unfinished work on a farm bill. Details on those and other House votes affecting the agricultural sector are after the jump.

The U.S. House voted yesterday to extend for one year all the tax rates established by the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Without Congressional action, those tax cuts will expire at the end of 2012. Once again, three-term Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among a small group of Democrats to vote for a GOP bill.

For every Congressional vote this year on a bill that might become law, there are lots of votes designed solely to make a political point. So it was with yesterday’s U.S. House vote on a bill to ban late-term abortions in Washington, DC.

For a good example of gamesmanship on Capitol Hill, look no further than yesterday’s U.S. House votes on offshore oil drilling. Republicans pushed a bill that won’t go anywhere in order to score points against the president’s energy policy. Democrats added language about U.S. sanctions against Iran and Syria to their motion to recommit in order to accuse Republicans of showing “reckless disregard for American national security.”

Yet again, Representatives Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the Democrats who voted with Republicans on legislation affecting the oil industry.

Iowa’s five U.S. House members helped approve one of Representative Ron Paul’s top legislative priorities yesterday.  

Most of Iowa remains parched this week, with triple-digit high temperatures and not enough rain in the extended forecast. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced new steps yesterday to help farmers and ranchers facing the worst drought in decades. Details are after the jump, along with related news involving members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

Four of Iowa’s five Congressional incumbents go into the final months of the campaign with far more cash on hand than their opponents. Details from the second quarter filings with the Federal Election Commission are after the jump.

The latest round of reports cover funds Congressional candidates raised and spent between May 17 and June 30. Bleeding Heartland covered the first-quarter FEC reports here and the “pre-primary” reports covering April 1 to May 16 here.

The U.S. House approved a defense budget for fiscal year 2013 yesterday by 326 votes to 90 (roll call). Four of the five members of Iowa’s delegation supported the bill. After the jump I’ve posted details about how the Iowans voted on key defense budget amendments as well as on final passage. Statements released by each of the representatives are at the end of this post.

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey finds President Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 48 percent to 43 percent.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency informed the Iowa Department of Natural Resources yesterday that a preliminary report finds the state of Iowa does not adequately enforce the Clean Water Act with respect to confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs).

The U.S. House voted today to repeal the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as health care reform.  

President Barack Obama is visiting Iowa yet again today. Tax policy will be the focus of his speech at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids. Some links related to his tax proposals and other campaign themes are after the jump. I’ll update later with highlights from and reaction to the event.

Any comments about the presidential election are welcome in this thread. A forthcoming post will focus on the latest television ads for or against Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney in Iowa.

The U.S. House is back in session this week, and it’s time for Bleeding Heartland to catch up on Congressional news from before the July 4 recess. After the jump I’ve posted details about how the Iowans voted on various bills and motions related to energy policy.

As a bonus, I’ve included some textbook sleight of hand by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. DCCC press releases hammered Republicans Tom Latham and Steve King for backing “Big Oil” interests during House debate on the Strategic Energy Production Act. But the DCCC glossed over the fact that Latham’s opponent in Iowa’s third district, Representative Leonard Boswell, was one of 19 House Democrats to vote with Republicans for final passage of that very bad bill.  

Roughly 150,000 people, or about 5 percent of Iowa’s population, will not receive Medicaid coverage under the 2010 federal health insurance law if Governor Terry Branstad gets his way. The governor repeated yesterday that he does not intend to go along with the Medicaid expansion, because he doesn’t believe the federal government should or will provide the promised funding to cover the cost.

Congressional Republicans including Representative Steve King are urging governors to reject other aspects of the Affordable Care Act, such as the state-based health insurance exchanges. Branstad has not yet decided whether to take that route. More details on these stories and other fallout from last Thursday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling are after the jump.  

U.S. House Republicans voted yesterday to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in criminal contempt of Congress for failing to release documents related to Operation Fast and Furious. Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) crossed party lines on that vote and on a related resolution authorizing civil court action to enforce a subpeona against the Justice Department.

The U.S. Supreme Court today upheld the constitutionality of the 2010 Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act, better known as health care reform. I am shocked not only by the decision, but by the 5-4 breakdown with Chief Justice John Roberts (not Justice Anthony Kennedy) being the swing vote in favor of upholding the law. Most commentators and the betting site Intrade thought the court would strike down at least the individual mandate to purchase health insurance, if not the whole law. To her credit, Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times consistently predicted that Roberts would vote to uphold the law.

Any comments related to health care reform are welcome in this thread. I will update this post frequently during the day as Iowa elected officials, candidates, and activist groups weigh in on the decision.  

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday struck down three provisions of Arizona’s law against illegal immigration while letting one key part of the law stand for now. More details on the ruling are after the jump, along with reaction from Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative Steve King (IA-05). I also sought comment on whether Governor Terry Branstad would seek to enact a “show your papers” statute in Iowa.

On a related note, I included last week’s comments by Representative Bruce Braley (IA-01) and his GOP challenger Ben Lange on the Obama administration’s new deportation policy.

President Barack Obama announced today that his administration will no longer deport some illegal immigrants who were brought to this country as children. Details on the policy are after the jump. Senator Tom Harkin welcomed the change, but Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative Steve King denounced what they called an “amnesty” policy. At this writing, other Iowa elected officials have not commented publicly on the issue.

All three Iowa Democrats in the U.S. House voted for the 2010 health insurance reform bill, but last week Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans in repealing a tax established under the Affordable Care Act. It’s the second time this year that Boswell and Loebsack voted to roll back part of that law.

Iowa’s five representatives split on party lines as the U.S. House failed yesterday to pass a bill that would ban abortions performed in order to select a preferred gender.

May 24 was the deadline for Iowa Congressional campaign committees to file “pre-primary” financial reports with the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from those reports are after the jump.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

For many veterans and their loved ones, Memorial Day is a somber occasion, not a time to celebrate the unofficial beginning of summer. On that note, I posted news and links related to Iowa veterans after the jump.

In a little-noticed vote last week, Democrats Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in backing language to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline as part of a major transportation bill.