The Iowa House Appropriations Committee passed House Study Bill 1 on January 12, by a party-line vote of 15 to 10. Republicans call the bill the “Taxpayers First Act” and claim it would save the state more than $500 million over three years, while refunding some money to taxpayers and allocating an extra $25 million for mental health services over the next 18 months. As Bleeding Heartland discussed here, the potential savings in the current budget year are far smaller. The Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate is unlikely to approve some of the big-ticket spending cuts, such as complete elimination of the voluntary preschool program for four-year-olds. The full text of the bill as introduced is here (pdf file). The Legislative Services Agency analysis of how much various provisions would cost or save is here (pdf file).

Looking through the lobbyist declarations on HSB 1, so far only Iowans for Tax Relief, the National Federation of Independent Business, and the Washington-based 501(c)4 group American Principles in Action have declared support for it. The bill’s opponents include the Greater Des Moines Partnership, the Iowa City Area Chamber of Commerce, the Iowa Association of School Boards, the Iowa chapter of the National Association of Social Workers, major labor unions (AFSCME and the Iowa State Education Association), the State Bar Association, and many organizations that advocate for public health and environmental causes. Numerous lobbyists haven’t taken a position on the bill; influential organizations still undecided include the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation, the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, the League of Cities, the State Association of Counties, the Iowa Medical Society, the Cedar Rapids Chamber of Commerce, the Iowa Chamber Alliance, and the American Association of Retired Persons.

UPDATE: The “deappropriations” bill was renamed House File 45. Click here for a bill summary.

Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Cady addresses the Iowa legislature this morning in what will surely be the most-watched ever state of the judiciary speech. Iowa Public Television is carrying the live feed at 10 am, and I’ll liveblog after the jump. Cady is the senior justice remaining on the high court, having been appointed by Governor Terry Branstad in 1998. He is also the author of the 2009 Varnum v Brien ruling, which struck down Iowa’s Defense of Marriage Act. That decision sparked a successful campaign against retaining Chief Justice Marsha Ternus and Justices Michael Streit and David Baker in November. The four remaining justices chose Cady to serve as chief justice until replacements for Ternus, Streit and Baker have been appointed.

So far 61 people have applied for a position on the Iowa Supreme Court. The current list is here, but more applications may come in by the deadline (January 14). So far applicants include 10 women and 51 men from many different towns and cities of the state. Most are in their 40s or 50s. The few applicants in their 30s include both U.S. attorneys appointed by George W. Bush for Iowa (Matt Whitaker and Matt Dummermuth). One Republican state legislator, Iowa House Judiciary Committee Chair Rich Anderson, has applied as well. The Des Moines Register noted that one applicant, University of Iowa law professor Angela Onwuachi-Willig, submitted a brief in support of same-sex marriage when the Supreme Court was considering the Varnum v Brien case. Another applicant, Michael Keller, has praised that ruling, which allowed him to marry his partner.

State Court Administrator David Boyd told the Des Moines Register that “he was ‘very pleased, and maybe a little surprised’ with the quality and number of applicants, given the intense public scrutiny on the court since the election.” The state judicial nominating commission “welcomes written comments from the public about the qualifications of any of the applicants.” After interviewing the candidates, the judicial nominating commission will send a short list of nine names to Branstad, who will fill the three vacancies.

P.S. This week a report by the National Institute on Money in State Politics summarized the independent expenditures in last year’s retention campaign. Supporters of retaining Ternus, Streit and Baker were vastly outspent by groups seeking to oust the justices.

UPDATE: Liveblog starting now after the jump. Iowa Public TV will rebroadcast the speech at 9:30 pm on Wednesday.

THURSDAY UPDATE: House Judiciary Committee Chair Anderson seems to be closing the door on impeachment.

Rep. Rich Anderson, R-Clarinda, said he personally believes that the justices’ actions in issuing a ruling that in effect legalized same-sex marriage do not meet the standard for impeachment spelled out in the Iowa Constitution: “misdemeanor or malfeasance in office.” The court ruled that an Iowa law limiting marriage to a man and a woman was unconstitutional.

He said his gut reaction is that the yet-to-be-filed bill won’t make it out of his committee, one of the first steps in the legislative process.

“I don’t believe there’s any likelihood of impeachment,” Anderson said.

I’ve posted more reactions to Cady’s speech from state legislators below.  

During Governor Chet Culver’s final address to the Iowa legislature this morning, he mentioned that his administration

provided the legislature and the new administration with a detailed summary addressing the historic egg recall last summer. This includes five proposed changes in Iowa law that will help improve food safety and employee training standards in the wake of the salmonella outbreak last summer.

I’ve posted the full text of the Culver administration’s egg safety proposals after the jump. This passage summarizes the five areas that would require legislative action:

Although the new federal egg regulatory regime is aimed at the state’s largest producers, a new, mandatory Iowa [Salmonella enteriditis] detection and prevention program should be enacted under amendments to existing law and the creation of a new Iowa Code Section 196.15 to complement the federal government’s efforts to prevent SE contaminated shell eggs from entering into the nation’s food chain from all of Iowa’s egg producers.

There are at least five issues that are not covered by the recent federal egg regulatory reforms, that Iowa law does not currently address and that, therefore, unless corrected legislatively, may leave consumers of Iowa-produced eggs vulnerable to future SE poisoning.  First, federal egg safety laws pertain only to egg farms that host at least 3,000 hens and do not cover smaller operations.  Second, under federal law, producers have no legal obligation to report positive SE testing results to any federal or state agency.   Third, there are no accreditation or certification standards for laboratories that conduct SE testing.  Fourth, there are no legal criteria that establish the minimal level of training and competency for persons who are charged with the responsibility for implementing a new mandatory SE detection and prevention program.  And, fifth, there is no clearly-identified funding stream to support an effective expansion of state egg programs.

It would take heavy lifting to get these sensible ideas passed and signed into law. Even when Democrats controlled both chambers of the Iowa legislature, few new regulations on agriculture saw the light of day. The Iowa House now has a 60-40 Republican majority, which makes passing new food safety rules even more of an uphill battle. Governor-elect Terry Branstad has repeatedly criticized what he views as excessive regulations on farms, and the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation endorsed Branstad and almost a full slate of Republican legislative candidates last year.  

State Senator Sandy Greiner has confirmed that she will continue to serve as president of the American Future Fund, a 501(c)4 advocacy organization. In an e-mail to Iowa Independent,

Greiner said she stepped down from the board of directors of the group’s political action committee. However, she will remain as president of the organization’s regular board of directors.

That is ludicrous. The American Future Fund’s PAC raised and spent about $85,000 during the 2010 election cycle, whereas the American Future Fund 501(c)4 raised and spent more than 100 times that amount ($9.6 million). The 501(c)4 was among the top 10 outside election spending groups nationwide.

Serving in the state legislature while heading a politically active group that does not disclose its donors strikes me as a major conflict of interest. The American Future Fund The Under the Golden Dome blog posted a few questions that Greiner should answer:

Is Sandy getting paid as the Board President? Who is paying her? Does the American Future Fund have any business before the legislature? As a member of the Government Oversight Committee, will Sandy be involved in the debate over campaign finance reform?

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Representatives of Public Campaign Action Fund, Public Citizen and Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement have called on Greiner to resign from the American Future Fund.

Governor Chet Culver addresses Iowa legislators for the last time this morning. Iowa Public Television will carry the speech, and I’ll liveblog after the jump. Meanwhile, use this thread for any comments about Culver’s record and legacy. I expect Culver will highlight efforts to increase renewable energy production and give more children access to health care and preschool, while leaving the state in better fiscal condition than most of the country.

I see Governor-elect Terry Branstad declined Culver’s invitation to attend today’s speech, and Culver won’t attend inaugural events on Friday.

UPDATE: The speech is now over, and my liveblog is after the jump. The biggest surprise for me came toward the end: Culver alluded to a report prompted by last summer’s massive egg recall, recommending five changes in Iowa law to address food safety issues. I’ll write a separate post later with more details on those proposed changes.

SECOND UPDATE: Here is the full text of Culver’s speech, as delivered.

The Iowa legislature convenes this morning for its 2011 session. Join me after the jump for clips on two of the most contentious issues to be resolved this session: proposed spending cuts and impeachment proceedings against four Iowa Supreme Court justices.

UPDATE: You can listen to opening speeches by Senate President Jack Kibbie, Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, House Speaker Pro Tempore Jeff Kaufmann, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer at the Radio Iowa site.

SECOND UPDATE: Lawmakers issued the official canvass of the 2010 gubernatorial election: Branstad/Reynolds 592,079 votes, Culver/Judge 484,798 votes.

This week is a big one in Iowa politics, with the state legislature’s 2011 session starting Monday and Terry Branstad’s inauguration for a fifth term as governor on Friday. Several non-profits are organizing members and supporters to lobby legislators as well. Event details are after the jump.

One of my new year’s resolutions is to post event calendars regularly at Bleeding Heartland. Activists and politicians can help by sending your event notices to me: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. Please post a comment if you know of something I’ve left out.

Iowa House Republican leaders rolled out their state budget cutting proposals yesterday. They plan to introduce the “Taxpayers First Act” immediately when the 2011 session begins next week. Rod Boshart covered the planned spending cuts here, repeating the House Republicans’ claim that the bill would “cut state spending by $114 million this year.” That figure doesn’t appear to correspond to the non-partisan Legislative Services Agency’s document spelling out how much each proposal would save in fiscal years 2011, 2012 and 2013. The first two pages of that document cover fiscal savings from proposals that would not require legislative action; the second two cover proposals that would require new legislation (and therefore support from the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate as well as Governor-elect Terry Branstad’s signature). Click here to download that document as a pdf file.

If everything on the first two pages of the GOP wish list happens, general fund spending would actually increase by $23 million in the current budget year, while about $43 million would be saved from other state government funds, leading to net savings of around $19 million. Even if you assume everything on the second two pages also becomes law (very unlikely), at most $73 million would be saved from the fiscal 2011 budget. That’s way short of the “hundreds of millions” of dollars incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen promised Republicans would cut from the current-year budget.

What happened? The LSA analysis didn’t support the fantasy budget cut numbers House Republicans have been throwing around for ages. Six examples are after the jump.

I also cover some spending cuts that really would save about as much as Republicans have claimed, but in a penny-wise and pound-foolish way.

Electors in Iowa Senate district 35 chose Jack Whitver on December 30 to run in the January 18 special election. Senate district 35 contains most of the northern half of Polk County. Whitver is a former Iowa State University football player who coaches for the Iowa Barnstormers arena football team, attends Drake University law school and owns a sports training business with locations in Ankeny, Urbandale, and Waukee. (Ankeny is the largest city in Senate district 35; Urbandale and Waukee lie outside the district.) Democrats will choose a candidate for this special election on January 3.

Six Republicans sought the nomination in this GOP-leaning district. The best-known were Kevin Koester, recently elected to a second term in Iowa House district 70, and Jim Gocke, a law partner of former State Senator Jeff Lamberti. Art Smith covered the nominating speeches and results from all five ballots at The Conservative Reader Iowa blog. The bottom candidate dropped out after each round of balloting, and Whitver finally received over 50 percent on the fifth round. Gocke led Whitver in the first and third ballots, but fell behind as more candidates were eliminated. Several GOP State Central Committee members who don’t live in Senate district 35 had backed Matt DeVries, an activist with Ron Paul’s Campaign for Liberty. DeVries was eliminated after the fourth ballot.

I was surprised to read in Craig Robinson’s post that only 34 of the 43 possible electors showed up to choose the Republican candidate for this special election. I know lots of people travel during the holiday season, but if you’re interested enough in politics to be a district elector, why would you miss a rare opportunity to pick your next state senator?

Robinson put Whitver’s nominating speech up on YouTube. It hits a lot of typical Republican talking points. For instance, according to Whitver, Iowa’s budget isn’t really balanced, because Democrats used one-time federal stimulus money to support the state budget. (Republicans will never understand that it was wise for states to use federal fiscal aid to get through the recession without devastating spending cuts, which would have been a further drag on the economy.) Whitver mentioned his 2006 candidacy against Ako Abdul-Samad in the overwhelmingly Democratic Iowa House district 66. From my perspective, the most interesting part of the speech began around the 2:50 mark:

I believe in term limits. If nominated tonight, I pledge right here, right now that I will serve no more than two terms in the Iowa Senate. I think that career politicians are one of the biggest problems that we have, and I think that getting rid of them are the single most effective way to eliminate the corruption, fix our political system and return our country to greatness.

Strange to rail against corrupt career politicians when your party’s top-ticket candidates last month were Chuck Grassley and Terry Branstad. Grassley has spent 52 years in politics, including 30 in the U.S. Senate, and Branstad just sought and won a fifth four-year term as governor.

The Ankeny area is likely to tilt Republican for some time, and Whitver’s a young guy. If he wins the race to succeed Larry Noble, as he will be favored to do, he may find it tempting not to step down after two terms in the Iowa Senate.

Before the November election, advocates for retaining the three Iowa Supreme Court justices on the ballot warned that throwing out the judges over one controversial decision would bring more politics into the judicial arena. The new debate over impeaching the four remaining Supreme Court justices shows that’s exactly what has happened.

In 2009, calls for impeaching the Supreme Court justices were a bridge too far even for Bob Vander Plaats, Iowa’s leading critic of the Varnum v Brien ruling. Now newly-elected Republican State Representatives Tom Shaw, Kim Pearson and Glen Massie are drafting articles of impeachment to introduce during the 2011 legislative session.

So far not one GOP official has spoken out against using a controversial ruling as grounds for criminal proceedings against four judges.

JANUARY 3 UPDATE: Governor-elect Terry Branstad finally spoke out against impeaching the remaining Supreme Court justices. Click the link or scroll to the bottom of this post to read his comments.

When the 84th General Assembly convenes on January 10, the Iowa House will have 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats. House Republicans selected leaders and committee chairs last month, and Democrats finished choosing leaders and ranking committee members in the past two weeks.

All Iowa House leaders, committee chairs and ranking members can be found after the jump. I’ve included a link to a short biography for each state representative, as well as the year the person was first elected to the Iowa House and the district he or she represents.  

Three attorneys who are challenging last month’s judicial retention elections today withdrew their request for an injunction to allow Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Marsha Ternus and Justices David Baker and Michael Streit to continue serving after December 31. The attorneys filed their lawsuit last week, saying the retention vote was illegal because the Iowa Constitution stipulates that judges “shall at such judicial election stand for retention in office on a separate ballot which shall submit to the question of whether such judge shall be retained in office […].” Lynda Waddington reports today that the lawsuit will go forward, but plaintiffs dropped their request to let Ternus, Baker and Streit continue to serve after learning that “the Iowa Judicial Branch and the justices removed from service were not in favor of it.”

A court will consider this lawsuit sometime next year. I believe it will go nowhere for reasons I discussed here. Iowa has been holding judicial retention elections in conjunction with general elections for nearly five decades. No one has ever demanded that voters be provided special ballots for the retention vote. IowaVoter points out that when Iowans approved the constitutional amendment on replacing judicial elections in 1962, lever machines rather than paper ballots were widely used. I share IowaVoter’s reading of the relevant passage in the constitution: it means that there must be a separate ballot line for each judge, so voters aren’t asked to retain or not retain the judges as a group.

Which do you think will get shot down first, Bleeding Heartland readers? This lawsuit challenging the legality of the retention vote, or statehouse Republicans’ efforts to impeach the remaining four Supreme Court justices?

Any comments about Iowa’s judicial system are welcome in this thread. I believe an impeachment spectacle during the 2011 legislative session will only make it harder for Governor-elect Terry Branstad to get lawmakers to pass the modest reform he favors (requiring partisan balance for judicial nominating commissions).

Last week Larry Noble resigned from the Iowa Senate, effective December 17, because Governor-elect Terry Branstad selected him to be commissioner of the Iowa Department of Public Safety in the next administration. After the jump I’ve posted Noble’s official biography from his campaign website. He is well qualified to lead the Department of Public Safety and will have no trouble winning confirmation from his former Iowa Senate colleagues.

Noble’s resignation leaves Republicans with 22 seats in the Iowa Senate. Democrats are assured of a slim majority in the chamber with 26 seats. A January 4 special election in Senate district 48 will determine the successor to Kim Reynolds, who resigned to become lieutenant governor. Sometime this week, Governor Chet Culver will set a date for the special election to replace Noble. The election will take place within 45 days of Culver’s announcement, probably in late January.

Senate district 35 covers most of the northern half of Polk County (map). It includes the Des Moines suburbs of Ankeny and Johnston, as well as Grimes, Polk City, Alleman, Elkhart and rural areas north of I-80. The area has experienced rapid population growth in the past decade and leans strongly Republican. The seat was last vacant in 2006, when Jeff Lamberti stepped down to run for Congress. Iowa Democrats recruited Ankeny Mayor Merle Johnson and invested heavily in the race, but Noble won by 52 percent to 48 percent in a Democratic wave year. Democrats did not nominate a candidate against Noble when he came up for re-election in 2010. As of December 1, Senate district 35 had 23,450 registered Republicans, 18,065 registered Democrats and 19,017 no-party voters.

So far no one has announced plans to run in Senate district 35. Democrats and Republicans will hold special district nominating conventions to select candidates.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user nick29 posted a press release from Jim Gocke, who will seek the Republican nomination for this Senate seat. Gocke is a law partner of Jeff Lamberti.

DECEMBER 23 UPDATE: Culver set the election for January 18.

Earlier this year, the Democratic-controlled Iowa legislature passed one of the loosest “shall issue” gun permit laws in the country. The bill appeared to have died in the legislature’s “funnel”, but Democratic leaders revived it, and the final version passed both chambers by wide margins. Democrats presumably thought supporting the top legislative priority of the National Rifle Assocation would save many of their vulnerable incumbents. But even though the NRA endorsed Governor Chet Culver and many Democratic lawmakers, Republicans made huge gains in Iowa last month.

Now the NRA plans “a major push for expanded gun rights in Iowa,” Jennifer Jacobs reported in today’s Des Moines Register. The organization’s priorities for the 2011 legislative session are listed after the jump.

Incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen discussed plans for shrinking state government in a December 8 speech. Rod Boshart has the story:

“You should us expect us to make some tough choices,” Paulsen told a Des Moines Partnership lunch crowd. “I think you’re going to see us just wholesale eliminate a couple difference programs and a couple different offices and we’re going to start with those that have marginal or no benefit.

The incoming House leader said voters sent a clear signal that government at all levels is growing too big too fast, regulating too much, and spending and taxing too much – issues the reconfigured House plans to address next session.[…]

The Power Fund has been administered by the Iowa Office of Energy Independence in conjunction with the Iowa Power Fund Board, two entities that were created when the program was enacted in the 2007 legislative session.

Paulsen also said he would prefer to replace the Grow Iowa Values Fund, started by former Gov. Tom Vilsack, with “things that would grow the economy” under the new public-private partnership envisioned by Governor-elect Terry Branstad [….]

Paulsen’s premise is incorrect. Iowa’s state government has not been growing during the past decade; on the contrary, general fund spending has fallen as a share of the economy and of personal income. But that’s a subject for another day.

House Republicans have advocated cutting the Power Fund for some time, and doing so would theoretically save $25 million per budget year. According to Boshart, the Values Fund received $45 million in fiscal year 2010 and $38 million for fiscal year 2011. I don’t believe the real savings will be nearly so large, because too many business interests have benefited from Values Fund and Power Fund grants. Lobbyists will work to ensure that significant funding for business support remains under a different department or program.

In addition, the Iowa Senate, which is under Democratic control, may insist that the state continue to invest significant resources in renewable energy. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal said last month,

If [R]epublicans have another approach that will help keep us at the forefront of renewable energy in this state and clean energy and green energy we’re completely open to looking at that. It doesn’t have to be called a power fund, it doesn’t have to be called I-jobs.

I will say this: cutting the Power Fund is more realistic than some other big savings proposed by House Republicans in the past. I expect Paulsen will be disappointed by the Legislative Services Agency’s analysis of how much can truly be saved by privatizing the state vehicle fleet or denying benefits to undocumented immigrants. The Iowa Senate will block efforts to eliminate the preschool program, although some money may be saved by means-testing that program, as Governor-elect Terry Branstad has advocated. Last year’s government reorganization already improved efficiencies in state purchasing.

One old Republican idea I haven’t heard Paulsen mention lately is implementing “the Principal Plan” to impose salary cuts on non-union state employees. House Republicans have called for requiring the governor to negotiate pay reductions on a sliding scale, from 2 percent for employees earning less than $40,000 per year up to a 10 percent salary reduction for those earning more than $100,000. This pdf file shows the projected savings in the different categories.

Share any thoughts about the state budget in this thread.

Governor-elect Terry Branstad announced three appointments on December 7. He will retain Brigadier General Tim Orr as Adjutant General of the Iowa National Guard, a post Orr has held since March 2009. Story County Treasurer Dave Jamison, who unsuccessfully ran for state treasurer, will head the Iowa Finance Authority in the Branstad administration. Retired Iowa Army National Guard Brigadier General Jodi Tymeson will lead the state Department of Veterans Affairs. Tymeson retired from the Iowa House this year, having represented district 73 for five terms.

Press releases containing background information on all three appointees are after the jump. None of them should have trouble being confirmed by the Iowa Senate. I noticed the Branstad administration’s bio of Tymeson didn’t mention her most recent role as co-chair of Bob Vander Plaats’ gubernatorial campaign.

Branstad has asked all state department heads to send him their resignations by December 15. He will replace most, if not all, of Governor Chet Culver’s appointees.

Branstad named three new staffers today. His liaison to the Iowa House and Senate will be Todd Schulz, who has handled government relations for Newton-based Iowa Telecom. The governor’s executive scheduler will be Alicia Freed, a former staffer for Senator Chuck Grassley who most recently worked as project manager for RuffaloCODY LLC in Cedar Rapids. Jimmy Centers, who was northeast Iowa field coordinator for Branstad’s gubernatorial campaign, will be deputy communications director. I wouldn’t be surprised if Centers got a promotion before too long, because Branstad’s communications director Tim Albrecht may go work for one of the Republican presidential campaigns in 2011.

Meanwhile, Branstad spoke about his property tax plans while addressing the Iowa Taxpayers Association’s annual meeting in West Des Moines today.

In proposing to cut commercial property tax rates by 35 percent to 40 percent for new businesses and phase down rates for existing businesses in a like manner over four or five years, Branstad said part of the lost revenues for local entities could be offset by increased business activity that would generate new property tax receipts. He also suggested that cities and counties should be less aggressive in offering tax increment financing and abatements that create disparities among new and existing businesses.

The price tag for lowering the commercial property tax burden would depend on the growth the proposed relief could generate, he said. Branstad said his plan would be to provide state funding to hold local governments “harmless” but not give them a windfall in the process – similar to when the state phased out the property tax on machinery and equipment in the 1990s when he previously served as governor.

“We want to make this adjustment in a fair way,” Branstad said, conceding that the cost could be as much as $500 million over four years.

The Iowa Taxpayers Association supports Branstad’s property tax plans, but Republican legislative leaders have warned getting the proposal through the legislature will be difficult. Yesterday Democratic Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal described the phase-out of the property tax on machinery and equipment as “pretty close to the biggest unfunded mandate in the history of the state.” The executive directors of the National League of Cities and the Iowa League of Cities both expressed concern about Branstad’s proposal:

No other state in the nation is considering similar cuts to commercial property taxes, said Donald Borut, executive director of the National League of Cities, a national advocate for municipalities. Resulting cuts to key city services such as police protection and road improvements ultimately could push businesses away, he said.

“The objective” to lower commercial property tax “is a laudable one, but the cost to municipalities could be draconian,” Borut said. “If there is some way to guarantee in blood that the municipalities would be held harmless, it’s one thing, but I don’t know how one can do that. Even with the best intentions, the pressures would be enormous.”

UPDATE: James Q. Lynch has more on local government officials worrying about Branstad’s property tax proposals. In that piece, Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett raises some good points:

Cedar Rapids is more dependent on property taxes than many communities, Corbett said. It has no gaming revenue and it local option sales tax is dedicated to flood recovery.

On a personal level, he’d like to see property tax relief targeted to benefit local businesses.

“Is there some different classification within commercial property tax base so you’re not giving Wal-mart a tax break at the same level as small business” he said.

Iowa Senate Democratic leaders announced committee assignments on December 6. After the jump I’ve posted details on the leadership team and committee chairs. Asterisks are next to the names of all Democrats who were elected to four-year terms in 2008 and therefore will be up for re-election in 2012. Redistricting will force some Democrats who were just elected this year to be on the ballot again in two years, but until the new map is approved, we won’t know where the extra elections will take place.

Democrats currently hold 26 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats. Republicans hold 23 seats, and a special election will be held in Senate district 48 in January. Senate Republican leader Paul McKinley announced committee assignments on December 7. Scroll all the way down for the list of GOP leadership and ranking members in the upper chamber.

Iowa’s three-member Revenue Estimating Conference again raised projections for state revenues during the current fiscal year and fiscal year 2012, following another month of growing state tax collections in November. The news hasn’t deterred Republican leaders from planning mid-year budget cuts, and legislators from both parties acknowledged the end of federal stimulus funds will make the next budget year difficult. Details and proposals are after the jump.

Iowa Democrats will compete in 2012 with the same leaders who ran this year’s election program. On Saturday, the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee re-elected all five officers for the next two-year cycle: party chair Sue Dvorsky, first vice chair Michael Kiernan, second vice chair Chris Petersen, treasurer Ken Sagar and secretary Dori Rammelsberg-Dvorak. Last month, the Iowa Senate Democratic caucus re-elected Mike Gronstal as majority leader, and Iowa House Democrats chose Kevin McCarthy as minority leader. McCarthy has been majority leader and right-hand man to outgoing House Speaker Pat Murphy for the previous two election cycles.

Some might expect a few changes at the top after Iowa Democrats suffered their worst election defeats since 1994. In a December 4 statement, Dvorsky promised to “build on the lessons learned in the last election to grow the Iowa Democratic Party and advance Democratic values across the state.”

John Deeth mentions that the IDP’s field program won “national praise” (in the form of one line by Marc Ambinder). I find it hard to see how anyone can view this year’s coordinated campaign as a success. Granted, it was a tough year for Democrats in most parts of the country. Yes, a million dollars from out-of-state turned out the vote against the Iowa Supreme Court justices, which surely helped Republican candidates. Yes, Democrats were unlucky GOP power-brokers talked Terry Branstad out of retirement. If not for that, Bob Vander Plaats would have been the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Chet Culver might be gearing up for his second term, and Democrats might have held more legislative districts.

Still, we lost every competitive Iowa Senate seat plus one few people had their eyes on. We saved a few targeted Iowa House seats but suffered a net loss of 16 in the chamber, worse than almost every Democrat’s worst-case scenario before the election. We lost state House and Senate seats in every Congressional district. Even in a bad year, we should have been able to contain the losses at a lower level. Democrats have almost no margin of error for holding the Iowa Senate in 2012, and it will take at least a few cycles to get the Iowa House back.  

I don’t have the data to know whether the field program was targeting the wrong voters, not enough voters, using the wrong methods to reach voters, or just suffered from a lack of funds to execute the plan. Many of our candidates lost despite working hard and exceeding their early vote targets. The direct mail for Iowa House and Senate candidates seems to have been largely ineffective, and the television commercials (at least the ones I saw) didn’t make any case for re-electing our incumbents.

All Iowa Democrats in Congress won re-election, but can that be attributed to the IDP’s field program? Turnout compared to 2006 wasn’t up by much in the key Democratic counties in the first district, for instance. I think Democrats were lucky that the GOP’s best Congressional challenger was in the most Democratic-leaning seat. Otherwise, we could easily have lost IA-01 and/or IA-03.  

I’m not saying this is all Dvorsky’s fault, or that electing new party leaders would fix the problem. One way or another, the IDP needs to have a much better field operation in 2012. It’s dangerous to assume performance will automatically improve because more voters participate in presidential elections. The economy could (probably will) remain weak, and there’s no way Barack Obama’s campaign will generate as much excitement as it did in 2008.

Speaking of the Obama campaign, I assume his Iowa staff will take over the coordinated GOTV efforts, as they did in 2008. That didn’t work out too well for our statehouse candidates. Even Obama’s Iowa director Jackie Norris admitted that more could have been done for the down-ballot candidates. The president’s re-election team will work to maximize turnout in heavily Democratic precincts, which in most cases are not part of battleground Iowa House and Senate districts.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Catching up on pre-Thanksgiving news, recounts concluded on November 24 in the two Iowa Senate districts decided by extremely narrow margins. Republican Andrew Naeve conceded to Tod Bowman, who won the open Senate district 13 by 70 votes out of nearly 20,000 cast. Naeve netted only one vote during the recount. Democrats have a almost a two to one voter registration edge in this Senate district (pdf file), so it shouldn’t have been close even in a Republican wave year. The GOP also managed to win House district 25, which makes up half of Senate district 13, after convincing one of Bowman’s unsuccessful Democratic primary rivals to run for the House as a Republican.

Democratic incumbent Keith Kreiman conceded to Mark Chelgren on November 24 after a recount in Senate district 47 failed to change Chelgren’s 12-vote lead out of just over 19,000 cast. Kreiman had served two terms in the Iowa Senate and five terms in the Iowa House before that. Democrats have a voter registration advantage in Kreiman’s district, though not as large as in Senate district 13. Kreiman underperformed House Democratic incumbents Mary Gaskill (district 93) and Kurt Swaim (district 94), whose each represent half of his Senate district.

Democrats will be hoping that the redistricting puts Chelgren on the ballot in 2012, rather than after a full four-year term. Most even-numbered years, half of the 50 seats in the chamber are up for grabs, but in the first election after a new map is adopted, some “extra” races take place in Senate districts containing zero or more than one incumbent.

With Senate districts 13 and 47 now resolved, Iowa Democrats are assured of holding at least 26 seats in the upper chamber. Republicans hold 23 seats and are favored to win the January 4 special election in Senate district 48.

Time with extended family means less time for blogging, so I’m posting the weekend open thread early. Here are some links to get the conversation going.

Rural voters were a crucial factor helping Republicans retake the U.S. House. Of the 125 most rural Congressional districts, Republicans held all 64 seats they had going into the election and flipped 39 Democratic districts (that alone would have been enough to give them a majority). Going into the election, Democrats held 61 of the 125 most rural Congressional districts. Now they hold only 22 of those districts, including IA-01 (Bruce Braley) and IA-02 (Dave Loebsack).

Smart Politics looked at what it calls “Iowa’s Schizophrenic 2010 Electorate” and observed, “Never before in the history of Iowa elections have Republicans won a majority of seats in the Iowa House while Democrats won a majority of the Hawkeye State’s U.S. House seats.”

I listed the Iowa House and Senate Democrats before and after the election, grouped by Congressional district. Bleeding Heartland user American007 created red and blue Iowa maps showing which parties held state House and Senate districts before the election and after.

Fred Karger, a Republican political strategist and gay activist who’s exploring a presidential bid, has been running this commercial on the Fox network this week in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities, Mason City, Ames, Burlington and Fort Dodge. Have you seen it? Hard to imagine a strong base of support for Karger in Iowa, but I’m glad a moderate may be running for president on the Republican side.

If Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels runs for president in 2012, some Iowa Republicans will not forgive him for supporting merit-based judicial selection in his state.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee said all the “right” things about Iowa judges during his recent Des Moines visit. But this week Huckabee described the controversial searches of airline passengers as a “humiliating and degrading, totally unconstitutional, intrusion of their privacy.” Uh oh! Social conservatives don’t typically acknowledge that there is a constitutional right to privacy. That dreaded “penumbra” underlies U.S. Supreme Court rulings affirming reproductive rights.

I learned this week that New Hampshire has some elected Republican officias who support marriage equality. It’s not clear whether there are enough of them to stop large GOP majorities from repealing same-sex marriage rights in that state. I wonder when (if ever) a current Republican office-holder in Iowa will defend equality.

Iowa First Lady Mari Culver says she accomplished what she set out to do during her husband’s term as governor, and her kids are excited to be moving back to their West Des Moines home full-time.

What’s on your mind this holiday weekend?  

The newly elected Iowa House Republican caucus picked a leadership team last week, and incoming House Speaker Kraig Paulsen named committee chairs this week.

Follow me after the jump for information about who will run various House committees in the 84th General Assembly. It’s notable that Paulsen passed over veteran legislators while giving chairmanships to some representatives beginning their second or third terms.

LATE UPDATE: Democratic ranking members for the appropriations subcommittees have been added at the bottom of this post.

Iowa was among only 12 states in which Democrats lost no seats in Congress on November 2. The others were mostly on the east or west coasts: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah and Vermont. Seeking to explain the survival of Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell despite Iowans’ rejection of Governor Chet Culver and three Supreme Court justices, Marc Ambinder credited “a stellar, caucus-honed Democratic ground game.” Des Moines-based political consultant Jeff Link suggested the early voting was crucial.

I agree that early voting helped Braley, Loebsack and Boswell, but if the Democratic ground game were as good as it was supposed to be, we should have lost fewer Iowa House and Senate seats. Assuming recounts don’t change the results, Democrats lost six state Senate seats and 17 state House seats, gaining only one Republican-held House district for a net loss of 16 in the lower chamber.

It will take a long time to sort out why the Democratic GOTV program didn’t contain the state legislative losses at a lower level. First, it’s worth looking closely at where our statehouse candidates succeeded and failed. A list of Iowa House and Senate seats Democrats held before and after the elections, divided by Congressional district, is after the jump.

For years, Iowa legislators have been eager to do whatever the nursing home industry asks of them. The Iowa Health Care Association’s lobbying efforts on behalf of nursing home owners have yielded impressive results. In 2009, the Iowa House and Senate unanimously passed a bill eliminating fines for dozens of violations at elder care facilities. Lawmakers from both parties have lobbied for the industry’s wish list in Washington. They have whined about inspectors “gotcha mentality” and in some cases interfered with the work of nursing home inspectors.

The Iowa Health Care Association’s influence will increase in the next administration. Governor-elect Terry Branstad told Iowa Public Television in October that he will appoint new leadership for the Department of Inspections and Appeals, with a view to more “collaborative and cooperative” work with nursing homes. That’s not good news for residents whose lives literally depend on how standards of care are enforced.

Iowa House Democrats elected Kevin McCarthy minority leader for the coming legislative session on November 15. McCarthy represents district 67 on the southeast side of Des Moines. He served as House majority leader for the last four years alongside House Speaker Pat Murphy. Murphy did not seek the minority leader position after the election shrank the House Democratic caucus from 56 members to 40. The caucus elected four assistant minority leaders today: Ako Abdul-Samad from district 66 (Des Moines), Mark Smith from district 43 (Marshalltown), Sharon Steckman from district 13 (Mason City), and Mary Mascher from district 77 (Iowa City).

The press release from the House Democratic caucus does not say whether anyone challenged McCarthy for the leadership position. Last week Dave Jacoby of Coralville and Mark Smith were rumored to be considering a run for minority leader, although Smith told the Des Moines Register he had decided against pursuing the job. LATE UPDATE: McCarthy told IowaPolitics.com that Smith did challenge him for minority leader, but declined further comment.

I’ve never been in the McCarthy fan club. He and Murphy sometimes pushed bad legislation, including the odor study bill that was a gift to CAFO operators. McCarthy is also a notorious opponent of real campaign finance reform. I’m not just talking about the VOICE act, which would have created a voluntary public financing system. I’m talking about reasonable contribution limits, which the Democratic House and Senate leadership never moved in the past four years. I doubt McCarthy will collect many five-figure checks for the House Truman Fund once Iowa has a Republican governor and a large GOP majority in the lower chamber.

While I would have preferred to see a new face for House Democrats who wasn’t part of last session’s leadership team, I wish McCarthy well. He’ll have a big job holding the Democratic caucus together and laying the groundwork for future gains.

McCarthy issued this statement today: “House Democrats are committed to strengthening our economy and helping create jobs. We will work together on the main stream, bread and butter issues that effect the every day lives of Iowans. However, if Republicans steer to more extreme policies at the expense of ordinary Iowans, we will make our voices heard.” The reality is that with 60 votes and almost no moderates left in the GOP caucus, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen and Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer won’t need to work with Democrats on any bills they want to pass, no matter how extreme.

Even though the House Democratic caucus will be much smaller next year, it still will have some new blood. Seven Democrats won open-seat House races on November 2: Chris Hall from district 2 (elected despite unusually strong GOP performance in Sioux City), John Wittneben from district 7 (Palo Alto, Emmet and part of Kossuth counties), Anesa Kajtazovic from district 21 (Waterloo), Mary Wolfe from district 26 (Clinton), Dan Kelley from district 41 (Newton and most of Jasper County), Dan Muhlbauer from district 51 (Carroll County and parts of Crawford and Sac), and Ruth Ann Gaines from district 65 (Des Moines).

LATE UPDATE: McCarthy’s comments on the election and the upcoming session are after the jump.

The Iowa Senate Democratic caucus on November 14 re-elected Mike Gronstal as majority leader and Jack Kibbie as Senate president. Five senators will serve as assistant majority leaders: Joe Bolkcom of Iowa City, Bill Dotzler of Waterloo, Wally Horn of Cedar Rapids, Amanda Ragan of Mason City, and Steve Sodders of State Center. Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson got Iowa Republicans excited on Saturday by tweeting that Horn would challenge Gronstal, but according to this Des Moines Register report by Jennifer Jacobs, “No one mounted a challenge for either leadership role, several senators said.”

More Iowa Senate news is after the jump.

Republican Andrew Naeve is asking for a recount in Iowa Senate district 13, the Des Moines Register reported today. According to the official canvass from Dubuque, Jackson and Clinton counties, Naeve finished 71 votes behind Democrat Tod Bowman out of nearly 20,000 votes cast.

It’s unlikely a recount would change the totals by more than a few votes, but I understand why Naeve is trying. If the Republicans could flip the result in district 13, they would have a chance for equal power in a 25-25 Senate.

As things stand, Democrats will probably hold a 26-24 majority in the upper chamber. I haven’t heard whether Democratic Senator Keith Kreiman will request a recount in district 47, where he trails Mark Chelgren by 12 votes out of more than 19,000 cast.

UPDATE: According to Saturday’s Des Moines Register, Kreiman is asking for a recount in district 47. I would too if I were behind by less than 0.01 percent of the vote.

In related news, Lieutenant Governor-elect Kim Reynolds officially resigned her state Senate seat today. Her resignation clears the way for a special election in district 48 before the Iowa legislature convenes in January. As of November 1, there were 10,444 registered Democrats, 15,257 Republicans and 14,306 no-party voters in the southern Iowa district covering Montgomery, Adams, Taylor, Union, Ringgold, Decatur and Clarke counties.

Politics-watchers from both sides of the aisle welcomed yesterday’s news that Charlie Smithson will be the new Iowa House chief clerk:

Smithson has been the Executive Director for the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board since 2001 and the board’s attorney since 1998. He previously served as the attorney for the Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission.

Raised in Pocahontas, Iowa, Smithson graduated from WestmarCollege in Le Mars before earning a Juris Doctorate from Washburn University School of Law in Topeka, Kansas.

Smithson has lectured and written several articles on government, ethics, lobbying, and campaign finance as well as contributed to the book,” Money, Politics, and Campaign Finance Reform Law in the United States.” He also teaches election law at the Drake University Law School in Des Moines.

The chief clerk serves as the House Parliamentarian, supervises House personnel and oversees the budget for the lower chamber’s operations.

Smithson will be a tough act to follow at the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. Kathie Obradovich commented,

Smithson has capably led as executive director of the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board and has the right personality and reputation for fairness to have immediate credibility in the clerk’s role.

What I’m sorry about is that he won’t be at the ethics board any more. He’s been unfailingly knowledgeable, competent and accessible in a very important role. We can only hope his successor has as strong of an interest in transparency and public access to campaign records. I’m also going to miss Mark Brandsgard, whose dry wit was often the only reward for listening to hours of mind-numbing House debate.

Brandsgard became chief clerk of the Iowa House in early 2009, having held various House staff positions since 1977.

County auditors have been certifying election results this week, and the Iowa House is almost certain to be split 60-40 in favor of Republicans. Three seats were determined by extremely narrow margins. Democrat Donovan Olson does not plan to seek a recount in House district 48, where he trails Chip Baltimore by fewer than 30 votes. Republican Roger Arthur does not plan to seek a recount in House district 18, where he finished 36 votes behind Andrew Wenthe. Republican Lannie Miller has not decided whether to ask for a recount in House district 7, but John Wittneben’s margin of 32 votes is unlikely to be overturned in a recount.

The Iowa Senate is headed for a 26-24 Democratic majority. Certified election results put Democrat Keith Kreiman 12 votes behind Mark Chelgren in Senate district 47, while Democrat Tod Bowman is 71 votes ahead of Andrew Naeve in Senate district 13. If I were Kreiman, I would ask for a recount to be sure, but even a tiny margin of 12 votes (0.06 percent of the votes cast in that Senate race) probably wouldn’t be reversed.

Jennifer Jacobs reported in the Des Moines Register,

Election results show that voters angry about the Iowa Supreme Court’s gay-marriage ruling played a role in defeating Kreiman.

In 2006, Kreiman won 71 percent of the votes in his home county, Davis County. This year, 774 more Davis County residents voted on judicial retention than in 2006.

Davis County was one of seven counties where the anti-retention vote was above 70 percent.

I suspect Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ strong Congressional campaign played at least an equally important role in Chelgren’s win. Senate district 47 includes Miller-Meeks’ home base, the Ottumwa area, and she worked extremely hard all year.

Senate Republican leader Paul McKinley tried to psych out Democrats this week by saying he has “thought about” trying to convince state senators to switch to the GOP: “I think there are individuals that we know that clearly were put in tough situations over the past two or three years and might be more prone to that, but we thought about it. We’ll analyze where we are and proceed accordingly.”

Two Democrats flipping together could give Republicans a majority in the upper chamber, but I very much doubt that will happen. The moderate Democrats in the Senate caucus have more pull with Senate Majority leader Mike Gronstal than they would as junior members of a Republican majority. Also, it’s not as if McKinley could promise party-switchers a smooth ride to re-election. U.S. Representative Parker Griffith of Alabama got crushed in a GOP primary this year after deserting the Democratic Party. An incumbent in a vulnerable Iowa Senate seat would not survive a Republican primary after voting for I-JOBS and all four of Chet Culver’s budgets.

Reading up on the carnage that was last week’s Congressional elections, I noticed that two House Democrats lost their seats despite having run unopposed in 2008. The unlikely losers were Rick Boucher in Virginia’s ninth district and Phil Hare in Illinois’ seventeenth district, including the Quad Cities area (though polls had shown Hare in trouble this fall).

I wondered whether any Iowa Democrats suffered the same fate. It turns out that three of the 13 Iowa House incumbents defeated last week did not have a Republican opponent in 2008. In each case, special circumstances may have exacerbated the generally bad environment for Democratic candidates this year.

Cutting spending from the current-year budget as well as from the budget for fiscal year 2012 will be statehouse Republicans’ top priority, incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen told journalists yesterday. Paulsen said Republicans will seek to reduce fiscal year 2011 spending by “hundreds of millions” of dollars.

Mid-year spending cuts would make sense if Iowa faced revenue shortfalls, like the declines that prompted Governor Chet Culver’s across the board budget cut in October 2009. However, state revenues have been coming in ahead of projections since fiscal year 2011 began, and the 2011 budget was balanced when Democratic legislators approved it in March. The Revenue Estimating Conference will meet again in December. If their projections show that Iowa’s finances are on solid ground, with revenues still exceeding expectations for the current-year budget, how will Republicans justify their planned cuts?

Paulsen asserts there are “several hundred million dollars in the current year’s budget of marginal or no value to Iowans,” but a large share of the budget goes toward education and human services. Todd Dorman posted the wish lists for spending cuts Iowa House Republicans offered during the last two legislative sessions. Some of the ideas are more realistic than others. Republicans could save tens of millions by scrapping the preschool program and the Power Fund. However, Iowa doesn’t spend anything like the $92.3 million Republicans claim we could save by ending “all state benefits to adult illegal immigrants.” I expect the Legislative Services Agency to point that out next year.

Republicans have said $18.5 million could be saved through privatizing the state’s vehicle fleet. However, Democrats have disputed those projections:

Since December 2009, the Department of Administrative Services has already achieved more than $10.5 million in cost savings under [Executive Order] 20 and [Senate File] 2088 on fleet management reforms. A 2007 Iowa Legislative Services Report concluded that selling off the entire state fleet would cost taxpayers millions of dollars, instead of saving money.

I doubt it would be workable to combine administrative functions at the University of Iowa, Iowa State and the University of Northern Iowa, which Republicans claim would save taxpayers $62 million.

Republican plans to save $4 million by eliminating “taxpayer-funded lobbyists” are misleading too. Although some state employees register as lobbyists during the legislative session to weigh in on bills that would affect their departments, the state does not hire any contract lobbyists. A Des Moines Register report from last summer identified $1.8 million in Iowa taxpayer-funded lobbying costs, but that figure included lobbying expenses of “state agencies, municipalities, county agencies and associations where member dues are paid by taxpayers, such as the Iowa League of Cities.”  

Any comments about the state budget are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: In the comments, willinIA points out that the $62 million in supposed savings from merging administrative functions at the regents universities was pulled out of the air by Ed Failor of Iowans for Tax Relief.

Today the Iowa House Republican caucus elected Kraig Paulsen to be incoming House speaker and Linda Upmeyer to be majority leader. The vote was no surprise, since Paulsen and Upmeyer were the top House Republicans during the previous two sessions. It’s still a historic achievement for Upmeyer; no other woman has ever served as Iowa House majority leader. James Q. Lynch wrote a nice profile of Upmeyer here. I didn’t know her late father was Del Stromer, who served in the Iowa House for 23 years, rising to the position of speaker. Upmeyer will be the “gatekeeper” who decides which bills come to a floor vote in the House.

The rest of the House GOP leadership team includes Jeff Kaufmann as speaker pro tem, Erik Helland as majority whip, and four majority assistant leaders: Matt Windschitl, Renee Schulte, Dave Deyoe and Steve Lukan. There was some speculation last year that Helland’s drunk driving arrest might cost him his leadership spot in the GOP caucus.

Republicans are likely to hold a 60-40 majority in the House next year, unless recounts change the outcome of one or more close races this week.

UPDATE: Iowa Senate Republicans re-elected Paul McKinley as their leader Monday. The Senate Republican whip will be Steve Kettering, and there will be five assistant minority leaders: Merlin Bartz, Brad Zaun, Pat Ward, David Johnson and Tim Kapucian. Johnson and Bartz have been the most visible Senate Republicans in the battle to overturn marriage equality in Iowa.

Republicans are likely to hold 24 of the 50 seats in the upper chamber, unless a recount overturns Mark Chelgren’s 13-vote lead over Democrat Keith Kreiman in district 47.  

What’s on your mind, Bleeding Heartland readers?

The Iowa House will probably have a 60-40 Republican majority unless provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots change the unofficial results reported so far. The two races most likely to flip are House district 18, where Democratic incumbent Andrew Wenthe leads by 28 votes, and House district 48, where Democratic incumbent Donovan Olson trails by 26 votes.

A 26-24 Democratic majority appears to be the most likely outcome in the Iowa Senate. Democrat Tod Bowman has expanded his lead to 73 votes in the open Senate district 13. Republican Mark Chelgren has a 13-vote lead over incumbent Keith Kreiman in Senate district 47. If absentee and provisional ballots allow Kreiman to overcome that deficit, the Democrats would have a 27-23 majority in the upper chamber.

Incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen is acting like he believes his own propaganda about the state’s dire financial condition. This week he asked Governor Chet Culver to tell his department directors “to freeze all discretionary spending.” Paulsen claimed that step is needed “to align ongoing expenditures with ongoing revenue,” even though revenues have been coming in ahead of projections since fiscal year 2011 began. Culver’s budget director in effect told Paulsen he was full of it. Excerpt:

As you know, the current FY 2011 General Fund budget is balanced and, as Governor Culver’s Administration announced last week, the projected ending balance or surplus will be higher than originally projected. Since the end of the 2011 legislative session, we have continued to replenish the State’s Reserve Funds because we closed the books on the FY 2010 General Fund budget with a $335.6 million ending balance, also higher than originally projected. […]

As you know, discretionary spending is a very small part of the General Fund budget, and the aforementioned controls apply to discretionary spending. Governor Culver does not have the authority to freeze appropriations for programs unless there is a deficit, and there is no deficit projected for FY 2011.

Newly re-elected Representative Tom Latham showed how gullible and uninformed he is on Friday by repeating the latest foam-at-the-mouth talking point about President Obama. Naturally, there’s no truth to the rumor that the president’s visit to India is costing $200 million a day. The real cost is probably about 100 times lower than the lie right-wing media have been spreading. Latham is old enough to know better, as my father would say.

It’s never too early to start the next election season in Iowa. Some Republican county party chairs talked with Bret Hayworth about their favorite presidential prospects.

The Des Moines Register reported a strange story: Polk County prosecutors are trying to permanently ban two anti-war protesters from the Federal Building in Des Moines. They are Christine Gaunt and Elton Davis (a member of the Bleeding Heartland community), who are to be sentenced on November 12 for trespassing at that building in August. I have never heard of a citizen being permanently banned from a federal building and wonder if there is any precedent for the judge to grant that request.

This is an open thread.

NOVEMBER 11 UPDATE: In the comments, Elton Davis says Polk County Attorney John Sarcone has withdrawn the unusual sentencing request, since apparently neither Senator Chuck Grassley nor Senator Tom Harkin supported it.

Senate Democratic Leader Mike Gronstal promised this week to block an Iowa Senate vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, even if a majority of senators sign a petition asking for a vote. The Republican reaction to Gronstal’s comments makes me wonder whether gay marriage will be in the coming decade what the death penalty was to Iowa Republicans in the 1980s and 1990.

Reinstating the death penalty was a major theme in all of Terry Branstad’s previous election campaigns. But as governor he didn’t deploy his political capital to push that bill through the state legislature, even when Republicans controlled both chambers during his last two years in office. Many Iowa Democrats believed Branstad valued having the issue to run on more than he cared about the policy.

In light of Tuesday’s election results, Republicans sound surprisingly resigned to failure on passing a marriage amendment in the new legislature.

Advocates celebrated passage of a constitutional amendment creating a Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund for Iowa, but there’s no guarantee new money will ever be allocated to protecting soil and water. Governor-elect Terry Branstad and incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen said yesterday a sales tax increase is off the table:

“This election was to a large extent driven by growth in government,’ said Paulsen, a Republican from Hiawatha. “Too much spending. Too much debt. The public did not elect Republicans so we could come down and raise taxes.”

“I don’t see House Republicans passing a sales tax increase for the forseeable future,” Paulsen said. “I don’t even think that will be under consideration.”

Said Branstad, of Boone: “I don’t support any tax increases. I made that clear during the election,” Branstad said. ” If it’s contingent on a sales tax increase, we’ve said there won’t be a sales tax increase. I’m supportive of conservation funding, but not raising taxes.”

Sean McMahon of Iowa’s Water & Land Legacy, the coalition that pushed for the new fund, on Tuesday said his organization is considering its next move. It may leave it up to individual Iowans and various environmental and recreation groups to push for the tax.  The group spent several years pushing the issue to a vote, and some of the preparation went back a decade.

Asking environmental groups and the “hook and bullet” crowd (Izaak Walton League, Pheasants Forever, Ducks Unlimited) to push for a sales tax increase would be a disastrous waste of time. The votes won’t be there in the legislature, and Branstad won’t want to break his promise on tax hikes as quickly as he did in 1983. Anyway, people like me didn’t get involved with the environmental movement to advocate for regressive taxes.

Groups that worked to pass this amendment should focus on lobbying for direct appropriations to the new fund. Voters approved the amendment by a wide margin. Making waterways safer for recreation and improving habitat for wildlife can be viewed as economic development tools for small towns and rural areas. Finding private donors who agree to match all or part of the state’s contribution to the fund might persuade legislators to get the conservation efforts going on a small scale. Successes would build a constituency for increasing the funding in future years.

That strategy may not work, but it’s better than pinning all hopes on a sales tax hike that won’t happen. Bleeding Heartland readers, please share your thoughts or suggestions for getting money allocated to the natural resources fund.

Democrats suffered big losses in the Iowa House and Senate last night. Assuming no results change through recounts, the House is likely to switch from 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans to 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats. I’ve seen some online references to a 58-42 split, but that’s not how the count looks based on unofficial results posted on the Secretary of State’s website.

Democrats maintain control of the Iowa Senate, but their majority shrank from 32-18 to 27-23. Governor-elect Terry Branstad should easily be able to get his agenda through the Iowa House, and Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal may have trouble keeping his caucus united.

UPDATE: Late returns could change the outcome in two Senate seats; it’s possible the chamber could have a 25-25 split, or a 26-24 Democratic majority.

SECOND UPDATE: A few more races could switch as more absentee ballots come in. As of Wednesday evening, Democrat Tom Schueller is now trailing in House district 25 by about 150 votes.

Here’s my take on the seats that changed hands and the near-misses.

Polls close at 9 pm in Iowa, but I thought I’d post this thread early for people who can’t wait to start talking.

Maybe some poll workers in Council Bluffs think Matt Schultz is already secretary of state. According to Matt Campbell’s Congressional campaign, some voters in Pottawattamie County were (wrongly) told they had to show photo ID in order to vote today.

In Pella, some Central College students were turned away from the polls. Disgraceful.

After the jump I’ve posted some statehouse races to watch.

UPDATE: Immediately after polls closed at 9 pm, MSNBC called the U.S. Senate race for Chuck Grassley.

9:17 pm KCCI says that with 7 percent reporting, Justices Streit and Baker at 55 percent yes on retention, Ternus at 54 percent. No idea which part of the state has reported.

9:26 pm Looks like urban counties reporting first, which is bad for justices and bad for Chet Culver. He’s virtually tied with Branstad with about 8 percent of the vote in. Fox has already called IA-Gov for Branstad; KCCI not doing so yet.

10:03 pm AP called IA-03 for Boswell. So far Miller, Mauro, Fitzgerald lead statewide races.

Comic relief: when my son heard the guy on tv say Leonard Boswell, he piped up, “Too wrong for too long” (catch phrase from a Brad Zaun tv ad).

Chuck Grassley couldn’t wait until Roxanne Conlin was done giving her concession speech–he stepped up so tv cut away from Conlin.

Geri Huser may lose HD 42 (east side of Des Moines and Polk County) unless absentees haven’t been counted yet. If result holds, that’s a district we should be able to win back in 2012 with a better Democrat.

10:18 pm Whoa–Associated Press apparently expects Iowa Republicans to pick up 6 seats in the Iowa Senate. That would reduce the Democratic majority to 26-24. Not a good result going into redistricting.

Kent Sorenson defeated Staci Appel in SD 37, and HD 74 (which makes up half of that Senate district) is too close to call. I saw Dennis Black was trailing in SD 21.

10:22 pm It looks like Iowa City voters defeated the effort to overturn the 21-only bar ordinance. If the result holds, that means 19- and 20-year-olds will not be allowed in bars after 10 pm.

10:27 pm All the Supreme Court justices are losing now that smaller county results are coming in, and Branstad leads Culver 52-44 with about 42% counted. In Polk County, Judge Robert Hanson has been retained; his 2007 ruling in Varnum v Brien struck down the Defense of Marriage Act. That case was appealed to the Iowa Supreme Court.

10:30 pm All three Democratic Polk County supervisors were re-elected, which means Dave Funk fell short in his effort to unseat Tom Hockensmith.

It appears that Branstad narrowly carried Polk County, which would make it almost impossible for Culver to be re-elected.

Geri Huser lost House district 42 by about 140 votes. A write-in candidate took 432 votes in that race. All the other Polk County incumbents in the Iowa House and Senate were re-elected, and Ruth Ann Gaines easily held the open HD 65, where Wayne Ford retired.

10:35 pm The Associated Press called all five U.S. House races for incumbents: Democrats Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell and Republicans Tom Latham and Steve King.

10:38 pm Looking bad for Secretary of State Mike Mauro–he’s now virtually tied with Matt Schultz. Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald still lead their Republican opponents. Republican Auditor David Vaudt and Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey have big leads.

10:43 pm Associated Press says Republicans on track to win 55 Iowa House seats. Dem incumbent McKinley Bailey losing to Stew Iverson in HD 9. Donovoan Olson trails Chip Baltimore narrowly in HD 48. Mark Smith barely ahead of Jane Jech in HD 43. Nathan Reichert appears to have lost HD 80 to Mark Lofgren. In the open HD 74, Democrat Scott Ourth narrowly trails Glen Massie.

Associate Press now saying Iowa Senate could end up in a 25-25 split. That would be a 7-seat GOP gain and much worse than Iowa Democrats were expecting. There would be basically no counterweight to Governor Branstad. Rich Olive is losing SD 5 to Rob Bacon. Bill Heckroth lost to Bill Dix in SD 9. Becky Schmitz narrowly trails Sandy Greiner in SD 45. Keith Kreiman barely ahead in SD 47.

LATE UPDATE: I fell asleep and missed Culver’s concession speech and the rest of the election night coverage. Unofficial results are at the Secretary of State’s website. Highlights:

Federal races: Grassley finished at 64.4 percent, not far below his usual 66 percent to 70 percent re-election total. Conlin was at 33.2 percent, around the same share of the vote previous challengers have received when they spent almost no money and barely campaigned.

I’m surprised they called Braley’s race so early, because unofficial results show he didn’t win by much at all: 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent. I predict he will focus a lot more on fundraising these next couple of years. Loebsack won 51.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Boswell won by a very similar margin: 50.6 percent to 46.6 percent. So Miller-Meeks did almost as well as Zaun despite running in a district that leans 7 point more Democratic. Latham and King slightly improved on their 2008 margins of victory: Latham 65.7 percent, Maske 31.9 percent and King 65.8 percent, Campbell 32.2 percent.

Statewide results: Many polls this year have shown Branstad around 52 or 53 percent, and he finished right at 52.8 percent to 43.1 percent for Culver.

I feel terrible for Mike Mauro–he has done such an outstanding job, but he lost to Matt Schultz 49.7 percent to 47.0 percent. He outperformed Culver (unlike in 2006, when he underperformed Culver), but with only one term in office, he just didn’t have the name recognition to survive a 10-point win by Branstad. Alternatively, some people think a German name like Schultz is better for seeking statewide office in Iowa than an Italian name.

Treasurer Fitzgerald and Attorney General Miller hung on, just like they did in the 1994 landslide. Fitzgerald only won 52.85 percent to 47.0 percent, which suggests to me that Republicans could have taken him out if Dave Jamison had had more money to spend on the race.

Republicans moved heaven and earth for Brenna Findley, but she only got 44.4 percent of the vote compared to 55.6 percent for Miller. Will Findley go back to working for Steve King, or will Branstad give her a post in his administration?

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey won 62.8 percent to 37.1 percent for Francis Thicke. I wish Thicke had run in 2006–the strong Democratic wave might have pulled him over the line. In retrospect, maybe the money that went into Roxanne Conlin’s campaign would have been better spent on Thicke. With an extensive television advertising campaign, he might have been able to beat Northey or at least raise Iowans’ awareness about many issues.

Auditor David Vaudt took 56.5 percent of the vote to 43.4 percent for Jon Murphy. Considering how little money Murphy had to spend on his campaign, he did quite well. Now that Iowa has a Republican governor, I think we won’t hear any more gloom and doom talk on the budget from Vaudt.

The Iowa Water and Land Legacy trust fund constitutional amendment passed easily: 62.7 percent to 37.2 percent. I don’t support a sales tax hike now, but at least if Branstad tries to move us in that direction he won’t be able to avoid giving more funds to protecting natural resources. I would like to see state legislators appropriate money directly to this trust fund.

Iowans voted down the constitutional amendment on calling a constitutional convention: 67.1 percent no, 32.8 percent yes. It’s a good thing so many Republicans were afraid to push for this one.

Sadly, the Supreme Court justices were all voted out of office. Ternus received 45.0 percent yes votes, Baker 45.75 percent and Streit 45.6 percent. It looks like all the lower-court judges were retained.

Iowa Senate races: Democrats lost five seats and only held on to two others by extremely narrow margins. That works out to 27 Democrats and 23 Republicans in the new Senate. I’ll have more details on that in a separate post. It’s really too bad Steve Warnstadt retired in district 1 (Sioux City).

Iowa House races: A few districts were decided by extremely small margins. Assuming recounts don’t change anything, Democrats lost 16 seats and Republicans lost only one (Democrat Muhlbauer took HD 51, Rod Roberts’ old seat). That would produce a Republican majority of 59 to 41, and a huge mountain to climb for Democrats in 2012, when redistricting will scramble things up. More details on those results in another thread.

A quick note on national results: it looks like Republicans will gain between 60 and 65 House seats and six to eight Senate seats, leaving a small Democratic majority intact. Republicans would probably have taken the Senate if the tea party movement hadn’t helped such weak candidates win primaries in Delaware and Nevada.

How’s your weekend going? Don’t forget to enter Bleeding Heartland’s election prediction contest if you think you know Iowa politics.

It’s Halloween and probably the last weekend for political commercials on Iowa television until Republican presidential candidates start running ads next year. Negative ads far outnumber positive ones, especially in the Iowa House and Senate races.  Judging from this blog’s traffic, a lot of people are searching for information on “Iowa heated sidewalks,” presumably because Republican House candidates are using the “heated sidewalks” canard against many Democratic incumbents. I also see references to flowerpots or trolleys in Des Moines and Iowa’s so-called billion-dollar deficit that doesn’t exist. Bleeding Heartland readers in other Iowa media markets have told me they see similar claims in ads for Republican statehouse candidates.

Many commercials feature “zombie lies,” claims that have been debunked repeatedly.  

So-called reckless spending has been one of the Republicans’ top talking points in this year’s state legislative elections. Direct mail, television and radio commercials targeting at least two dozen incumbent Democrats have decried wasteful, pork-barrel spending. A few specific spending programs come up most frequently in GOP candidates’ messaging. Bleeding Heartland already discussed the misleading talk about “heated sidewalks” here. Three other popular examples of alleged out-of-control spending are $120,000 for flowerpots in Des Moines, $690,000 for trolley service in Des Moines, and $1.8 million for kayak waterways.

Follow me after the jump for background on those appropriations.

Catching up on some news from last week: on October 20 U.S. District Court Judge Robert Pratt denied a preliminary injunction request against Iowa’s new campaign finance disclosure requirements for corporations. The Iowa Right to Life corporation filed a lawsuit challenging the new law in September, claiming it places unconstitutional restrictions on corporate political speech.

More background on the law in question and Iowa Right to Life’s lawsuit are after the jump.