Bombshell news out of Washington today: Jim DeMint is resigning from the U.S. Senate in order to run the Heritage Foundation, an influential conservative think tank.
Continue Reading...I am surprised to hear that the Republican National Committee’s Rules Committee has approved a proposed 2012 nominating calendar that would keep the Iowa caucuses first, followed by New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada:
http://www.desmoinesregister.c…
I had assumed that the GOP establishment would have the knives out for Iowa, since Mike Huckabee’s triumph here hurt establishment favorite Mitt Romney, while this year’s nominee John McCain, another establishment favorite, finished a distant fourth place.
Keeping Iowa first is not a done deal:
The measure, which passed 28-12, must now be approved by the rules committee meeting in August, scheduled for the week before the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Finally, the measure must be approved by delegates to the convention.
Still, it’s interesting that this calendar has support within the RNC rules committee for now.
Since Barack Obama seems very likely to become the Democratic nominee, I would assume that the Iowa caucuses are safe if he wins the general election. If he loses to McCain, however, I expect members of the Democratic National Committee to change the calendar. A lot of angry Democrats will blame Iowans for picking a loser again.
Continue Reading...I don’t think anyone predicted the magnitude of Obama’s win in South Carolina, with 55 percent of the vote to 27 percent for Clinton and 18 percent for Edwards. Not only did Obama nearly double Clinton’s percentage of the total vote, the youth turnout tripled, and two-thirds of young voters chose Obama.
The total turnout exceeded 500,000, and Obama alone got more votes than the total turnout in the 2004 Democratic primary in South Carolina.
An estimated 155,000 more black voters turned out yesterday than in the 2004 primary.
Also, someone pointed out in the comments at MyDD that Obama got more votes yesterday in South Carolina than John McCain and Mike Huckabee’s combined total in the GOP primary last weekend.
I am shocked that the total turnout in the Democratic primary exceeded the turnout in the GOP primary in a state as conservative as South Carolina.
I was way off on my Nevada predictions, but I didn't do too badly on the GOP results in South Carolina.
Please put your predictions for the Democratic South Carolina primary in the comments.
This week's polls have shown Edwards gaining, especially among whites. The big question mark is, will the Obama campaign be able to produce record black turnout, giving him a double-digit victory?
I'm guessing they will. My prediction: Obama 45, Clinton 33, Edwards 22.
Unfortunately, Mike Huckabee was not able to take this one. Fred Thompson won just enough evangelical voes to give John McCain the victory.
Yet again, Rudy finished behind Ron Paul, as he has in every contest so far.
From TPM, with 93 percent of precincts reporting:
McCain 33
Huckabee 30
Thompson 16
Romney 15
Paul 4
Giuliani 2
Hunter 0
Hunter is dropping out of the race. Thompson will probably follow soon and endorse McCain.
UPDATE: Jonathan Singer observes at MyDD that SC Republicans seemed less enthusiastic about voting this time than they did eight years ago:
Another way of looking at it, this is kind of an underwhelming win for McCain. Well, perhaps even a really unimpressive win. In 2000, McCain received 237,888 votes in coming in second place to George W. Bush. This time? A mere 134,474 votes, or more than 100,000 votes short of what he received eight years ago.
Link: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…
Continue Reading...The Nevada caucuses and the GOP primary in South Carolina take place tomorrow. How do you think the candidates will do? Here is my stab in the dark:
Nevada
Clinton 42
Obama 38
Edwards 20
Romney 35
McCain 30
Huckabee 15
Paul 5
Thompson 3
Giuliani 2
South Carolina
McCain 32
Huckabee 28
Thompson 20
Romney 12
Giuliani 5
Paul 3
Continue Reading...As Bill Nye the Science Guy used to say, consider the following:
How would it affect the national race for the nomination were we to have three different winners in the big three early contests?
Consider the following scenario. In the Iowa caucus, John Edwards wins a squeaker of a contest, coming in first over Clinton and Obama–who pull down second and third respectively. The win is a major boost to the Edwards campaign, which gets a boon of positive press coverage and a donor rush. While seen as somewhat of a loss for the Clinton campaign, the press deems Obama the biggest loser of the night for his lackluster third place finish.
Iowa: Edwards
Going into New Hampshire, Edwards sees a small bump of supporters, a large amount of who are Obama defectors and fence sitters. It's not enough to put Edwards up over Obama, but it's enough to give the lead solidly to Clinton. On primary night, it's Clinton who wins a close contest, with Obama second and Edwards a very close third.
New Hampshire: Clinton
Post New Hampshire, Clinton wins contests in Nevada and Michigan–but neither is the convincing victory the campaign needs and both are largely ignored by the media.
The media and the campaigns place a huge emphasis on South Carolina, looking to crown a winner before Super Tuesday. Obama has spent most of his time post-New Hampshire campaigning in South Carolina, including a few high profile events with Oprah. Edwards has also drawn on resources in his home state of North Carolina and spent a lot of time in the state, while Hillary has been in Nevada. When all is said and done, Obama wins a decisive victory, with Edwards coming in second and Clinton a close third.
South Carolina: Obama
Thus going into Florida and Super Tuesday it's a three way race. Clinton may have the lead on delegates, but that could all change. Not only have the big three early contests all gone to different candidates…but each has come in first once, second once, and last once.
Nomination: ???
Do you think such a scenario is possible? How would it affect the national race to have the big three early contests (Iowa, NH and SC) go to three different candidates? By having three viable, energized candidates going into Super Tuesday could the stage be set for a convention fight the likes of which we haven't seen for decades? What do you think?
Please bear in mind that this is just a imaginary scenario, not a prediction.
Iowans have to step up to protect the South Carolina primary. Most do not know it, but the primary will be conducted on a statewide touch screen system without a paper trail. And not just any touch screen: South Carolina uses an extremely insecure system that Ohio’s Secretary of State recommended scrapping just last week, and which Colorado’s Secretary of State decertified on Monday. Iowans should educate the Presidential candidates, and call on them to act.
“It’s worse than I anticipated.” Those are the words of Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner used to describe the security of voting systems in her state, following a top-to-bottom review by a corporate-academic team. Brunner has recommended that Ohio scrap all direct-recording electronic touch screen systems.
Our Country needs, Hope … yes very much so.
Our Country also needs Competence in SO many Government Positions of power … NO more 'Heck of Job — Brownies' PLEASE!
But the one thing America needs even more than Hope and Competence — it's Real Leadership!
What is Real Leadership made up of?
More Compromise and Committee meetings? (I hope not)
Media Fanfare and soaring rhetoric? (nice, but …)
How about Honesty, How about taking a real Stand?
How about talking straight with the American People, and detailing all the 'Hard Work' and 'Sacrifice' that Real Change will ultimately require?
That's what Real Leaders do.
They tell you the Truth, and speaking the Truth eventually leads to widespread Action, and the Changes we need.
Once again John Edwards, has NOT failed to Lead on the Issues, so important to everyday Americans …
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UPDATE (6:44 PM Central Time): So here’s the deal. A December caucus date is seeming a bit less likely. At least that’s according to the calculations that Chris Bowers over at Open Left has provided to readers. His calendar shapes out like this:
His reasoning, again, is here and worth a read.
And one more thing. Gov. Culver talked with Kay Henderson and others today emphasizing his support for Iowa as first-in-the-nation state. And he says that Iowa will be first, no matter what.
– – – – – – – – – –
Oh holy hell. I really wish I could confirm with any ease the exact date of the Iowa Caucuses but it seems likely not to count on January 14th, 2008, anymore.
First, I’ll let you read what my friend John Deeth reported: That the South Carolina GOP Chair will announce in New Hampshire that he’s moving his primary date earlier than their scheduled February 2nd, 2008, primary.
Now, according to Marc Ambinder and others, it looks like the South Carolina GOP will announce in NH that they’re moving their primary to January 19th, a full three days before the NH primary. By announcing the move in NH, it seems likely that the NH Secretary of State will move his state’s primary up to Monday, January 7th, or Tuesday, January 9th. That would almost guarantee an Iowa Caucus date in December of 2007, unless both the IDP and the RPI decide to hold the Iowa Caucuses on Friday, January 4th. That doesn’t seem likely as its right after the new year.
Other complications still exist. On August 25th, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet to decide whether or not to sanction Florida Democrats because their state’s primary is now on January 29th (thanks to a Republican Florida legislature and governor). Florida Democrats are seeking an exemption, but it is likely that Iowa Democrats will fight hard for sanctions to Florida’s delegation to the Democratic National Convention next summer in Denver. The outcome of the Rules and Bylaws meeting is still quite up in the air.
Also, South Carolina Democrats are still planning their primary for January 29th, which means they’ll still actually be on schedule.
Michigan is still considering moving its primary to January 29th as well, but Gov. Jennifer Granholm is facing pressure not to sign a bill that would move the primary earlier (but also faces pressure from in-state Democrats like Sen. Carl Levin to move the date earlier–as a sidenote, Levin is crybaby who is just pissed that Nevada and South Carolina were the states that the DNC picked to insert into the IA-NH domination).
Summary: If you’re planning to caucus, keep the months of December and January open.
And if you want to keep track of the best news on the primary/caucus schedule, try Ballot Access News.
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