Continuing my series of putting odds to things, I thought I'd look at the Republician presidential race. It only seems fair to speculate on the enemy's position while we work on our own…

Again, the scenario I envision is one in which one of the current top three candidates wins the nomination: Giuliani, Romney, or Huckabee. A further stipulation is that whoever wins will not pick any of the other members of the Big Three. So no Rudy/Romney tickets, folks. I had considered Huckabee a top VP candidate, but I'm taking him out of the running since he's sharpening his attacks and becoming a serious contender.

3-1 Fred Thompson The consummate good 'ol boy, Fred is the perfect southern comfort for Guliani or Romney's Yankee personalities. Plus, while Thompson's been slinging a little mud, he hasn't seemed to make any serious enemies yet. His only caveat is that Huckabee doesn't need another down-home southerner on his ticket. Goes best with: Giuliani, Romney

5-1 Charlie Crist Three words. Florida. Florida. Florida. This guy might represent the single biggest “known unknown” in politics today. If he is Veeped, Florida becomes much, much, much harder for a Democrat to win. Yet, the guy is a total enigma–and refuses to tip his hat to any one candidate. Goes best with: Guliani, Romney, Huckabee

7-1 Tim Pawlenty He's the popular Governor of Minnesota and a handsome, young Republican face. He may even deliver Minnesota and put Iowa and Wisconsin in play for the Republicans. However, he has little name recognition as it stands now, and the I-35 collapse happened on his watch–a potential target. Goes best with: Giuliani, Romeny, Huckabee

7-1 Duncan Hunter Strong on immigration, tough on defense. From the sunny state of Cully-for-neea, Hunter would lend credibility to a candidate lacking on these issues. Not to name any names, *cough* Romney *cough*. Plus, “Hunter” would look really good on those signs. Still, he's going nowhere fast in his own race. Goes best with: Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee

10-1 John Boehner He's a fresh face from a swing state. Also, he's been unfailingly loyal to the administration, and Republicans reward loyalty above all else. However, he got a little bit burned on the Foley and Abramoff scandals. Goes best with: Giuliani, Romney

10-1 John McCain War hero. Experienced. Moderate. McCain certainly deserves some recognition from the party after all these years. But his “radical” immigration stance and his “weak” anti-torture stance might turn off key components of the base. Not to mention that he would be the oldest VP ever elected. Goes best with: Huckabee

20-1 John Roberts He's the squeaky clean, likeable and popular Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Going from the Court to the White House is a stretch, but it's not impossible. He just might be the out-of-the-box candidate the party needs. Of course, it is somewhat of a suicide choice. If the ticket would win, they could appoint another moderate republican to the court. If they lose, they lose the White House, the Congress, and the Supreme Court in one year. A big gamble for sure. Goes best with: Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee

1,000,000-1 Ron Paul Ron Paul would never agree to be any of these guys' VP. But if I include him, I can tag this diary “Ron Paul” and maybe someone will read it for a change.

After shattering one-day fundraising records on Guy Fawkes Day (raising more than $4 million), Ron Paul supporters are planning a $10 million “tea party” on December 16, the anniversary of the famous anti-tax revolt in Boston. They are collecting pledges at the Tea Party '07 website.

I see Ron Paul yard signs and bumper stickers every so often in the Des Moines area, but I have no idea how active the campaign is here. He seems to be putting most of his effort into New Hampshire.

Anyone else seeing signs of a Ron Paul revolution in Iowa? The gang at Iowa Independent put Paul fourth in their Republican power rankings–ahead of Fred Thompson and John McCain.

I'm late to be posting about this, but on Monday some 35,000 supporters of Ron Paul raised over $4.3 million for his campaign, shattering single-day online fundraising records. 

Jerome Armstrong, founder of MyDD, wrote an interesting commentary on this incredible achievement of Paul's supporters. The fundraising drive wasn't even orchestrated by the campaign.

Matt Stoller's take on the Ron Paul revolution is here at Open Left.

Is Ron Paul's campaign doing much in Iowa? I see some yard signs and hear some ads on the classic rock radio station in Des Moines, but that's about it. MyDD linked to some tv ads Paul is running in NH–they are pretty amateurish:

http://www.mydd.com/…

I realize that as a candidate, he is better suited to the political culture in New Hampshire than Iowa, with more religious conservatives. Still, with the money he has in the bank, he could make a very strong ad buy in Iowa. Admittedly, it's late to be putting together a field operation here.

What do you think? Is there any potential for Paul to finish in the top three in Iowa? 

Take a minute to click over to Iowa Independent, where T.M. Lindsey has live-blogged the Ron Paul rally in Cedar Rapids. It's a good read.

I've been saying for months that Ron Paul is not going to get major traction among GOP primary voters. It's not that Republicans aren't sick of the war–they are. But the diehard Republicans who think “we've done all we can for those people,” and it's time to bring the troops home, will never admit Bush made a mistake in taking us into Iraq. And that is why Paul will never be able to reach them.

Also, I think true libertarians are scarce in the GOP these days. But maybe I am wrong. He certainly seems to have a buzz surrounding his campaign, and he is the most coherent of the bunch in the televised debates.

Lest any of you think this is proof that Paul is a “liberal” or would be more at home in the Democratic Party, I refer you to this good set of diaries by “phenry” over at Daily Kos:

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul, In His Own Words.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: The Radical Right's Man in Washington.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: Dude is Wack.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul Hates You.

So what do you all think about Ron Paul and his potential in Iowa?

It's ridiculously early for yard signs–I don't think any of the Democrats are handing them out yet. So I was surprised to see a “Ron Paul–Hope for America” yard sign today in a fairly Democratic neighborhood on the west side of Des Moines.

If you know Des Moines, the house is just off Polk Blvd, close to the Waveland Cafe. I don't know the precinct number, but if memory serves, this was an area where Kucinich was viable in 2004.

Anyone else seen any yard signs up yet?

I rarely check in with the conservative blogosphere, but for some reason I clicked on the Cyclone Conservatives link at the right and I found a post proclaiming that for the second month in a row, former Libertarian and Republican U.S. Congressman Ron Paul has won the site’s presidential straw poll.

And he didn’t just win–he crushed the field, getting 44 percent of the 984 total votes. Wingnut Duncan Hunter placed second with 17 percent and Multiple Choice Mitt Romney placed third with 13 percent.

At first I thought that one person must have voted over 400 times for Ron Paul, but the organizers claim that you can only vote once per month per IP address. Presumably there must be some way to stuff the poll despite this restriction.

Alternatively, nearly half of Cyclone Conservative readers think the Iraq War was a colossal mistake. Ron Paul was one of very few, perhaps the only, Republican serving in the U.S. House who voted against the Iraq resolution authorizing the use of force in 2002.

Or is there some other reason why Ron Paul is dominating the field?

Another fun fact from this poll: anti-immigrant crusader Tom Tancredo got 8 percent of the vote, nearly twice as many raw votes as John McCain (3 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (1 percent) combined.

Think the wingnut base is a little unhappy with the GOP frontrunners?