The Republican Party of Iowa will not declare Rick Santorum the winner of the Iowa caucuses, even though he leads Mitt Romney by a few dozen votes according to the certified results, and led Romney unofficially in the eight precincts where results could not be certified. A narrow margin of victory with a clear winner would have been great for the Iowa GOP, as it would show multiple paths to winning the caucuses. A disputed result that produces no official winner is a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn now admits Santorum won the caucuses. The episode still makes the party look bad, for reasons I discuss below.

Jon Huntsman’s exit from the presidential race leaves five Republican candidates taking the stage tonight for a Fox News debate, co-sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and the South Carolina GOP.

I will update this post later with highlights. I don’t expect Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry or Rick Santorum to do any real damage to Mitt Romney. Any comments about this debate or the GOP primary campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I missed part of the debate, but some thoughts are after the jump.

Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital is under increasing scrutiny as opponents try desperately to stop him from winning next Saturday’s GOP primary in South Carolina. Some of the anti-Romney narratives can’t stand up to the same level of scrutiny. I’ve posted some links on the “Bain way” and other factors in the Republican presidential race after the jump.  

Polls just closed in New Hampshire, so here’s a thread for talking about the results as they come in. PBS will be updating vote totals here.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread. It’s hard for me to see any of the other Republicans stopping Mitt Romney, especially with Rick Perry helping to splinter the conservative vote ahead of the South Carolina primary on January 21. Nor can I see any path for Jon Huntsman, even if he finishes a strong second or third tonight. I’m highly amused by Newt Gingrich’s strident rhetoric against Bain-style vulture capitalism.

UPDATE: With two-thirds of the vote in, Romney is the clear winner by a double-digit margin (38 percent to 24 percent for Ron Paul and 17 percent for Huntsman, with Gingrich and Santorum at 10 percent). Right now Perry trails “other.”

SECOND UPDATE: With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 39 percent, Paul 23 percent, Huntsman 17 percent, Gingrich and Santorum 9 percent each, and Perry 1 percent.

As Bleeding Heartland user albert pointed out in the comments, President Barack Obama received only about 82 percent of more than 50,000 votes cast in the Democratic primary. Nearly 10 percent of Democratic primary voters wrote in candidates. Of the 13 other named candidates on the Democratic ballot, two received more than 1 percent of the vote: Ed Cowan, who ran on a platform of “major change,”, and Vermin Supreme, a performance artist running on a joke platform.

Six Republican candidates are debating twice in 15 hours this weekend ahead of Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney, who’s way ahead of the field, will be playing not to lose. Everyone else will be under pressure to trip him up.

Any comments about the ABC debate on Saturday night or Sunday morning’s encounter on “Meet the Press” are welcome in this thread. I’ll liveblog the ABC debate after the jump.

Moderate Republican Fred Karger was excluded from these and all previous televised debates, but he has been campaigning in New Hampshire and has a tv ad on the air. Transcript: “Fed up with the Republican Party? Well, there’s one candidate you just might like. Fred Karger is the only moderate Republican running for president. He’s pro-choice, supports gay marriage, and wants us out of Afghanistan now. Send the Republican Party a message: vote for Fred Karger for president.”

UPDATE: Added excerpts from the Meet the Press debate transcript at the end of this post.

Mitt Romney may have wrongly been declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses due to a tabulation error, according to an exclusive KCCI-TV report today.

Representative Michele Bachmann is suspending her presidential campaign this morning after finishing sixth in the Iowa caucuses. In the summer, she briefly became the first female GOP presidential candidate to be a major contender in key early states. What happened to her afterwards won’t encourage other women to seek higher office.

This thread is for sharing stories from your precinct caucus meetings as well as for discussing the results once they have been reported.

Iowa Republicans and Democrats, I’m particularly interested to know how many candidates for Congress or the state legislature addressed your caucus, or had a campaign representative greet caucus-goers and speak on their behalf. GOP Congressional challenger Rod Blum is planning to meet Republicans in two IA-01 counties instead of caucusing in his home town of Dubuque. GOP Representative Tom Latham, who is running against Leonard Boswell next year in IA-03, claims to have lined up leaders in all 384 precincts across the district. Steve King’s challenger, Christie Vilsack, is speaking to all Democratic caucus-goers in Story County’s sole caucus location, Ames High School.

UPDATE: Adding results after the jump.

I didn’t expect this year’s Republican caucuses to be as much of a nail-biter as the 2008 Democratic competition in Iowa, but here we are on game day, and the top three GOP candidates could plausibly finish in any order.

Is Rick Santorum rising fast enough to finish in the top two on Tuesday? The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa poll before the caucuses is one of many to show Santorum gaining strength. Representative Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley made positive comments about Santorum’s campaign over the weekend. Although Rick Perry is criticizing Santorum’s record in Congress, there’s not enough time left to make an effective case against the latest “not Romney” through paid media.

The new Iowa polling numbers are after the jump, along with news from the stump and some candidates’ closing Iowa television and radio ads.

Six days before the Iowa caucuses, no Republican candidate has a clear lead, social conservatives remain scattered among several contenders, and new television commercials are launched on almost a daily basis. Numbers from the two latest opinion polls and news from the campaign trail are after the jump, along with some commercials currently showing on Iowa tv screens.

UPDATE: Added numbers from a new CNN poll and the latest Ron Paul tv ad.

It’s Christmas Eve, the fifth night of Chanukah, and ten days before the Iowa caucuses. Not-too-cold weather and clear skies will create good conditions for stargazing. The only thing missing from an otherwise perfect weekend is enough snow for sledding.

I hope everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community is enjoying friends, family and your favorite foods of the season. I’m eating the traditional Jewish Christmas Eve meal. Tomorrow noodle kugel is on the menu.

This is an open thread: happy holidays to all, and all topics welcome. A few Republican presidential television commercials now airing in Iowa are below.

I don’t care what Bob Dole said when he was in the mood for flattery, I’m not going to waste Bleeding Heartland readers’ time discussing why Governor Terry Branstad won’t be on anyone’s short list for vice presidential candidates. But it’s never too early to do a little scenario spinning about running mates.

Maybe “Organize, organize, organize and then get hot at the end” isn’t outdated Iowa caucus wisdom after all. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of Iowa Republicans finds Representative Ron Paul slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped to third place.

UPDATE: The Republican polling firm Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has also picked up on the Gingrich slide and Paul gain. Details are at the end of this post.

Seven Republican candidates take the stage tonight as Fox News and the Iowa GOP co-host a presidential debate in Sioux City. I’ll be live-blogging after the jump, where I’ve also posted some recent news about the race in Iowa.

UPDATE: Scroll down for the live-blog.

Seven Six Republican presidential candidates debate tonight in Des Moines, the first time the group has debated since Herman Cain left the race and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich became the front-runner. I plan to live-blog tonight’s debate here, but I wanted to post this thread early to give Bleeding Heartland readers a chance to talk about the race. Links and recent news from the campaign are after the jump.

UPDATE: Scroll down for the live-blog.

Who would have believed it back when Greg Ganske seemed like Newt Gingrich’s last friend left in Iowa? Within the last ten days, five six separate pollsters have released surveys showing former the House speaker with a clear lead among likely Republican caucus-goers.

Iowa Republican caucus-goers have switched their allegiance from one joke candidate selling books to another. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the field in the latest poll by Selzer and Co for the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney trails the latest “not Romney” contender by a larger margin than in the Register’s other polls this year.

Yet another Republican presidential candidates’ debate takes place tonight in Washington. CNN’s Wolf Blitzer will moderate as eight candidates discuss foreign policy: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Senator Rick Santorum, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and Representatives Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul.

A foreign policy debate should allow Paul to stand out from the crowd. My guess is that Santorum will take the lead in challenging his call to negotiate with potential enemies and end most U.S. military interventions.

The latest CNN/ORC International nationwide poll indicates that Newt Gingrich is indeed the new Republican flavor-of-the-week, leading Romney by 24 percent to 20 percent. I expect several rivals for the “not Romney” niche to take Gingrich on tonight. Romney will probably sail above the fray.

Share any thoughts about tonight’s debate or the Republican presidential race in this thread. UPDATE: I posted a few thoughts after the jump.

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and Representative Ron Paul have pushed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney into third place in a new Iowa Republican poll for Iowa State University, the Cedar Rapids Gazette and KCRG TV. However, less than two months before the Iowa caucuses, the majority of likely participants are still not committed to any candidate.

UPDATE: Now Rasmussen has a new Iowa poll showing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich way ahead among likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney and Cain. Details are below.

Four presidential candidates are new clustered between 17 and 20 percent support among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, according to Selzer and Co’s latest poll of Iowa Republicans, conducted for Bloomberg News.

Eight presidential candidates are debating tonight at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan. CNBC is broadcasting the debate beginning at 7 pm central time. Economic issues are supposed to be the focus of the discussion, but I imagine Herman Cain won’t be able to avoid some discussion of the spiraling sexual harassment allegations against him.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a bit of a home-court advantage in Michigan, where his father was once governor. The Los Angeles Times published a damning report this week about Romney’s business practices at Bain Capital, which used “shell companies in two offshore tax havens to help eligible investors avoid paying U.S. taxes.” I expect Romney will be asked to comment on that report tonight.

I will update this post later with highlights, but meanwhile use this thread for any comments about the debate or the GOP presidential race.

UPDATE: A few thoughts are after the jump.

The Herman Cain sexual harassment allegations have dominated political media coverage of the Republican presidential race this past week. I haven’t covered that story here, because I figure you can find the latest developments at any number of news sites. I also doubt it will significantly affect Cain’s standing among Iowa Republican caucus-goers, who either won’t believe the allegations or don’t care about sexual harassment.

Cain reached out to many Iowans directly this week through a robocall “survey.” My notes on the voter identification call, which came around dinnertime on a weeknight, are after the jump.  

Two Republican presidential candidates who have spent very little time in Iowa during the past few months are leading the Des Moines Register’s latest poll of Iowa Republicans.

Senator Chuck Grassley got the word out yesterday: he won’t endorse any Republican presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses.

Seven Republican presidential candidates are debating in Las Vegas, Nevada tonight. CNN invited eight candidates, but former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman declined to participate “because of a dispute between New Hampshire and Nevada election officials over the date of Nevada’s primary.” His absence will leave a bit more speaking time for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Representatives Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum.

If you watched the debate, please share your thoughts about winners and losers. Anyone else should feel free to comment on the GOP primary race in this thread.  

Federal Election Commission reports for the third quarter of this year were due on October 15, and President Barack Obama continues to build on his money advantage over the Republican field. On the GOP side, Texas Governor Rick Perry outraised former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the quarter and has slightly more cash on hand, while all other candidates lag far behind.

Highlights from the presidential candidates’ FEC filings are after the jump.

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey provides more evidence that former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain is gaining support among Republicans as Texas Governor Rick Perry and Representative Michele Bachmann lose ground.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney narrowly leads while former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain has surged to second place, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll of Iowa Republicans. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is slightly ahead of both Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry among registered Iowa voters.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie just called a press conference to confirm once again that he will not seek the presidency in 2012.

Nine Republican presidential candidates are debating in Orlando tonight at an event sponsored by Google, Fox News and the Florida Republican Party. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson will be on stage along with the eight candidates who participated in two debates earlier this month. I don’t know what they’ll tell us tonight that we didn’t hear at the Reagan Library or at the CNN/Tea Party Express debate, but I’ll update this post later with highlights.

Meanwhile, use this thread for any comments about tonight’s debate or the presidential campaign in general. Representative Thad McCotter, who has been excluded from all televised debates so far, announced today that he’s out of the race. He will back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Few people besides former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants will notice McCotter’s absence.

Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker joined Texas Governor Rick Perry’s campaign yesterday as Iowa co-chair. He had previously led former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s Iowa campaign effort. On Monday Pawlenty endorsed Perry’s leading rival for the Republican nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Whitaker’s partner in the Des Moines law firm Whitaker Hagenow is State Representative Chris Hagenow. He endorsed Pawlenty this summer and hasn’t publicly committed to another candidate yet.

After the jump I’ve posted part of a Perry for president press release with background on nine new staffers just hired to work field. Romney is not investing as much in his campaign’s Iowa ground game as he did before the 2008 caucuses.

Eight Republican presidential candidates will debate for the second time in less than a week tonight at 7 pm central time. I expect former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Representative Ron Paul to have a go at Texas Governor Rick Perry, like they did during last week’s debate. Representative Michele Bachmann has been trying to distinguish herself from Perry too lately. I see the other four candidates mainly fighting not to be ignored by the moderators.

I’ll update this post later, but meanwhile here’s a thread to talk about the debate or the presidential race in general.

UPDATE: First thoughts on the debate and excerpts from the transcript are after the jump.

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty endorsed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for president this morning, trying to set the media agenda as eight Republican candidates prepare to debate in Florida this evening.

Eight Republican presidential candidates are debating this evening at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. Texas Governor Rick Perry will be most closely watched tonight, because he hasn’t participated in any of the previous debates.

I am curious to see who tries to take Perry down a peg tonight. Representative Ron Paul is on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire with a television commercial hitting Perry, and the Reagan Library is a perfect backdrop for his message. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney just released a big jobs plan yesterday, so I wonder whether he will try to poke holes in Perry’s claim to be the country’s best job creator.

I’ll update this post with further thoughts on the debate after the jump. Meanwhile, use this thread to discuss tonight’s action or any developments in the presidential race.

Representative Ron Paul just answered my question about which Republican presidential candidate would be the first to go after the new front-runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry. A 60-second television commercial going up in Iowa and New Hampshire presents Paul as a longtime supporter of Ronald Reagan, in contrast to Perry, who backed Al Gore’s 1988 presidential campaign. I’ve posted the video and transcript below.

Representative Michele Bachmann is replacing the top two national figures in her presidential campaign, as the latest Rasmussen poll of Iowa Republicans shows the largest lead yet for Texas Governor Rick Perry.

I wanted to share a piece I wrote for the Boston Globe's Angle on how Rick Perry's role as a major Texas A&M booster may cost him support from Iowa State Cyclones fans if Texas A&M's move to the SEC is successful.

UPDATE from desmoinesdem: I've added an excerpt after the jump.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has quickly become the front-runner in the Republican presidential field, so it’s time to catch up on his campaign in Iowa and around the country.

Samples from the governor’s rhetoric and policy statements are below, along with recent poll numbers and some Texas-sized chutzpah from Perry’s latest Iowa speech.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? Newt Gingrich is probably wondering who’s going to pay for him to fly around the country on private jets. His presidential campaign can’t afford the expense anymore, and his former gravy train 527 group American Solutions went belly up last month.