# Republican Party



Checking in on Republican culture

I was raised by a Rockefeller Republican. Some Bleeding Heartland readers are old enough to remember what they were like. There are some still around in the Republican Party rank and file, but not many among public figures. You hardly ever see them in the news, except in a story like this one, where they complain that no presidential candidates are seeking their support.

I went to college in the late 1980s in Massachusetts, where most of the Republicans were like my dad: liberal on social issues, for protecting the environment, somewhat conservative on economic issues, but not supportive of supply-side (aka “voodoo economics”) either.

There was a very close gubernatorial election while I was living in Massachusetts, and a lot of liberal Democrats voted for the Republican, William Weld–just like my mother, a lifelong Democrat, used to vote for Bob Ray in the 1970s.

I lived overseas for most of the 1990s, and when I returned to Iowa in 2002, the biggest change (aside from the ubiquitous SUVs and minivans) was in Republican culture. I was aware of the religious right’s growing power during the 1980s, so I knew the party had become much more conservative. Chuck Grassley, considered a right-winger when he was elected to the Senate in 1980, was considered a moderate Republican two decades later.

But I missed the talk radio explosion during the 1990s. Watching Bill Clinton’s presidency from afar, I could tell that there was a lot of over-the-top Clinton hatred among Republicans. But I had no idea of how the Rush Limbaughs and Michael Savages of the world had changed the core values of so many conservatives.

If you haven’t seen it already, check out the piece Joe Klein wrote after he attended Frank Luntz’s focus group of Republican voters during the latest GOP presidential debate. Here’s one key passage:

In the next segment–the debate between Romney and Mike Huckabee over Huckabee’s college scholarships for the deserving children of illegal immigrants–I noticed something really distressing: When Huckabee said, “After all, these are children of God,” the dials plummeted. And that happened time and again through the evening: Any time any candidate proposed doing anything nice for anyone poor, the dials plummeted (30s). These Republicans were hard.

I am not at all surprised by the focus group’s mean-spirited reaction toward any mention of a program that helps the poor. Today’s Republicans are told repeatedly by their opinion leaders to be suspicious of anything that would spend their tax dollars on poor people.

If you heard about a plan to require lead testing for all Iowa children, you might ask some questions: is lead poisoning a big problem here? What health and behavioral problems does it cause? What proportion of kids are already getting tested for lead? What are the main sources of lead poisoning in children?

In contrast, look at this young Republican’s knee-jerk reaction to the news that a Democratic legislator wants mandatory lead testing in Iowa:

Another example is a bill that requires mandatory testing of children for lead. Odd bill I thought. Why would this be such an issue? Until Representative Ford tells a sob story of a child in his district that ate paint and got sick. Blah, blah, blah…kids could get sick…and apparently it’s the state’s job to baby-sit every child in Iowa. Though I can’t help but wonder what dumb child would eat paint! And what irresponsible parent would not know their child is eating paint?

Impressive combination of ignorance and heartlessness there, you have to admit. We must be vigilant against any attempts to protect children’s health! Never mind that a lead test is much less expensive than paying to deal with developmental disabilities caused by lead poisoning.

Getting back to Klein’s piece about the Republican focus group that watched the debate:

But there was worse to come: When John McCain started talking about torture–specifically, about waterboarding–the dials plummeted again. Lower even than for the illegal Children of God. Down to the low 20s, which, given the natural averaging of a focus group, is about as low as you can go. Afterwards, Luntz asked the group why they seemed to be in favor of torture. “I don’t have any problem pouring water on the face of a man who killed 3000 Americans on 9/11,” said John Shevlin, a retired federal law enforcement officer. The group applauded, appallingly.

Part of me agrees with Todd Beeton’s reaction to Klein’s commentary:

Truthfully, this could only come as a surprise to someone who dismisses principled criticism of the right by the left as “partisan bickering;” someone who, for every criticism levied on the right, feels the need to balance it out with a similar criticism of the left as though both parties, both sides were created equal. No, Mr. Klein, they really are out of their minds. Welcome to the world.

In fairness to Klein, I know intellectually that a lot of Republicans hate any programs that benefit poor people, and particularly the children of illegal immigrants. But I can see how it might be shocking to sit there in a room of typical conservatives and see them frown on a politician pointing out that immigrants are also “children of God.”

For me it remains beyond belief that so many conservatives, who ostensibly believe in individual liberty and small government, have no problem with the United States torturing suspects who haven’t been charged with a crime, much less convicted.

I don’t know what can be done to steer mainstream Republican culture back toward constitutional values and limited government power. Any ideas out there? Would a big Democratic election victory in 2008 bring back the Bob Rays, or would it just convince Republicans that they need to be more like Tom Tancredo?

P.S.- I was checking in with the Edwards supporters in my precinct a few days ago, and one of them told me she recently saw a car driving around the Des Moines area with an “Impeach Hillary” bumper sticker. The deranged Clinton hatred among some Republicans is remarkable.  

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Stick a fork in Rudy--he's done

Well, I thought Rudy Giuliani’s campaign would go down in flames because of his connections to the federally indicted Bernie Kerik, or because he blew off attending the Iraq Study Group meetings in order to give $100,000 speeches.

But little did I know that the mayor billed city agencies for his security detail during daytime visits to his mistress and allowed said mistress to use the New York Police Department as her “personal taxi service”.

The guy is more brazen and corrupt than I ever imagined.

Anyone think his campaign can last until January 3?

UPDATE: Keep an eye on Josh Marshall’s Talking Points Memo blog. His crew are digging into various aspects of this story, and he is posting frequent updates:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

Republican debate open thread

I didn't watch the debate, but the consensus on the liberal blogs seems to be that Huckabee did very well.

I have been saying for months that we are in a world of hurt if Republicans nominate Huckabee, particularly if we end up having to run Hillary against him.

Anyone out there watch the debate? What did you thnk? 

UPDATE: Over at Daily Kos, grannyhelen posted these hilarious YouTubes of a woman in CNN’s focus group of undecided Republican voters saying that after watching the debate, she leans toward John Edwards:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Ron Paul supporters planning $10 million Tea Party

 

After shattering one-day fundraising records on Guy Fawkes Day (raising more than $4 million), Ron Paul supporters are planning a $10 million “tea party” on December 16, the anniversary of the famous anti-tax revolt in Boston. They are collecting pledges at the Tea Party '07 website.

I see Ron Paul yard signs and bumper stickers every so often in the Des Moines area, but I have no idea how active the campaign is here. He seems to be putting most of his effort into New Hampshire.

Anyone else seeing signs of a Ron Paul revolution in Iowa? The gang at Iowa Independent put Paul fourth in their Republican power rankings–ahead of Fred Thompson and John McCain.

 

Former DMR editor discusses presidential endorsements

 

Richard Doak, a retired editor and columnist for the Des Moines Register, wrote an interesting piece on presidential endorsements in the Sunday paper. I encourage you to click the link and read it. He wrote the endorsement editorials for 20 years.

My only quibble is that I think Doak exaggerates the importance of the Register's endorsement of John Edwards four years ago. The Register published the endorsement eight days before the caucuses. I was working my precinct hard for John Kerry and started noticing a surge in support for Edwards more than a month before then. I distinctly remember calling my field organizer in mid-December to tell him that Edwards was gaining a lot of strength and would probably be viable. He said, “I know.” The field organizers were hearing the same thing from all of their captains.

The endorsement certainly gave Edwards good publicity, and probably convinced some leaners that he was a viable candidate, but it was by no means the spark that helped him finish a close second to Kerry. 

Doak describes the editorial board's endorsement process and notes that there are two endorsements he regrets: choosing Bill Bradley over Al Gore and George W. Bush over John McCain in 2000. I'm cutting the Register some slack on the first one, because I too made the mistake of supporting Bradley over Gore. I even sent him money.

But endorsing Bush over McCain? That was gutless. Doak admits that the editorial board almost endorsed McCain, but balked because they were charmed by Bush and anyway, McCain had written off Iowa.

The composition of the Register editorial board is different from four years ago. I wouldn't be too surprised to see them go with the establishment choice, Hillary Clinton, like they went for Bush as the establishment candidate in 2000.

Then again, maybe they will try to mix things up by picking a longshot, like they did in 2004. In that case my money would be on the Register backing Joe Biden, although Bill Richardson might also be a possibility.

What do you think? 

Rudy not reaching out to Iowa GOP moderates

I've been saying for a long time that Rudy Giuliani will not be the GOP nominee. Others say he's got a plausible path: finish in the top three in Iowa, the top two in New Hampshire, then hang on until the big states vote on February 5. 

Now, this would be realistic if Rudy were actually going after Republican moderates in Iowa. Religious conservatives clearly call the shots in the party, but if the goal is just to finish in the top three, you could do that with a united front of moderates.

But read this article from the Sunday Des Moines Register on the lack of outreach from Giuliani's campaign to Republican moderates. It is beyond belief. Three former Republican members of the Iowa legislature (all women) are quoted about how Rudy is just pandering to the religious right. And read this part:

Diane Crookham Johnson's telephone has been quiet.

The moderate Republican from Oskaloosa led the Iowa Republican Party's 2004 fundraising effort and helped one-time presidential prospect George Pataki begin organizing in Iowa before the former New York governor decided last year not to run.

Johnson said she heard from Giuliani's staff once several months ago but not from the former mayor nor any other candidate, she said. In Iowa, it is common for party activists to hear directly from presidential candidates by telephone or in person.

“There are candidates who it's worth my time to caucus for. But I've not found a campaign worth giving up my time for,” she said. “Giuliani would have come the closest. But even that campaign is not fully committed in Iowa.”

Rudy hasn't even called the woman who led the Iowa GOP's fundraising in 2004. How connected do you think she is? I knew Rudy was lazy and not making much of an effort in Iowa, but come on–how could he not call this woman? It's insane.

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Mock Caucus, Nov. 13 in Des Moines

Sorry for the short notice. This looks like a fun event. I unfortunately have another commitment tomorrow, but if someone out there attends, please put up a diary afterwards!

Young Professional Groups Across Iowa Present

Mock Caucus
Tuesday, November 13
Iowa State Historical Building
When: Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Where: The State Historical Building at 600 East Locust Downtown
What time: 5:30-7:30pm
Why: To participate in a live (mock!) caucus and learn why caucusing is  important

 

On November 13th young professionals across the metro will get a front row seat to a “mock caucus” at the State Historical Building. This Young Professionals Connection (YPC) event allows young professionals to tour through Iowa’s life-sized caucus display, network, and participate in a live caucus of media celebrities.
Currently the main caucus-goers are over 50 years old,” says YPC Civic Member Nicole Hinton, “This event connects young people to the caucus process in a fun way.”
The Caucus & Coronas gatherings leading up to this pinnacle event have drawn more than 400 attendees. “Young people are interested in politics,” says YPC Board Member Seth Hall. “It is just a matter of finding ways to get them comfortable with participating.”
Secretary of State Michael Mauro will help MC the event and local media celebrities including Erin Kiernan of WHO TV 13 and Kevin Conney of KCCI Channel 8 will be the “candidates” for the mock caucus.
To RSVP, call Jessica Walters at 515.286.4950 or email her at
jwalters@desmoinesmetro.com.
Young professional groups hosting the event include the Young Professionals Connection of the Greater Des Moines Partnership, the Bull Moose Club, Drinking Liberally, YP Iowa, the 21st Century Forum, the 20/30 Society and Ankeny Young  Professionals.

 

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Could the Ron Paul revolution happen here?

I'm late to be posting about this, but on Monday some 35,000 supporters of Ron Paul raised over $4.3 million for his campaign, shattering single-day online fundraising records. 

Jerome Armstrong, founder of MyDD, wrote an interesting commentary on this incredible achievement of Paul's supporters. The fundraising drive wasn't even orchestrated by the campaign.

Matt Stoller's take on the Ron Paul revolution is here at Open Left.

Is Ron Paul's campaign doing much in Iowa? I see some yard signs and hear some ads on the classic rock radio station in Des Moines, but that's about it. MyDD linked to some tv ads Paul is running in NH–they are pretty amateurish:

http://www.mydd.com/…

I realize that as a candidate, he is better suited to the political culture in New Hampshire than Iowa, with more religious conservatives. Still, with the money he has in the bank, he could make a very strong ad buy in Iowa. Admittedly, it's late to be putting together a field operation here.

What do you think? Is there any potential for Paul to finish in the top three in Iowa? 

Brownback endorses McCain

Never mind the rumors about Sam Brownback endorsing Rudy Giuliani for president; the Kansas senator decided to back John McCain after all. Cyclone Conservatives has a good write-up here, or you can read the Des Moines Register's coverage here. I liked Mike Huckabee's comment in the Register:

Huckabee, campaigning Wednesday in Cedar Falls, said he would have liked Brownback's endorsement, but “we're getting a lot of Brownback's supporters. If I had a choice between him and his supporters, I'll take his supporters.”

Don at Cyclone Conservatives says he knows former Brownback supporters who have switched to Huckabee or Fred Thompson. The person I know who interned at the Brownback campaign plans to volunteer for McCain. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

Meanwhile, Bob Vander Plaats, who's chairing the Huckabee operation in Iowa, says they are not worried about missing out on the endorsements of Brownback or evangelical Pat Robertson, who recently backed Rudy Giuliani.

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Rudy will not be the Republican nominee

Republican caucus-goers and primary voters know very little about Rudy Giuliani's record as mayor, other than what they say on tv on 9/11.

However, that fact will change in the coming months, and what people learn about Rudy is unlikely to impress them. Click this link if you dare to learn more about Rudy's longtime connections with Bernie Kerik:

http://www.nytimes.c…

It's a long article, but here is one excerpt:

In December 2004, President Bush nominated Mr. Kerik, a former New York police commissioner, to head the federal Department of Homeland Security. Seven days later, Mr. Kerik withdrew as a nominee.

A cascade of questions followed about his judgment as a public official, not least that he had inappropriately lobbied city officials on behalf of Interstate Industrial, a construction firm suspected of links to organized crime. Mr. Giuliani defended Mr. Kerik, a friend and business partner, whom he had recommended to the Bush administration. But he also tried to shield himself from accusations that he had ignored Mr. Kerik’s failings.

“I was not informed of it,” Mr. Giuliani said then, when asked if he had been warned about Mr. Kerik’s relationship with Interstate before appointing him to the police post in 2000.

Mr. Giuliani amended that statement last year in testimony to a state grand jury. He acknowledged that the city investigations commissioner, Edward J. Kuriansky, had told him that he had been briefed at least once. The former mayor said, though, that neither he nor any of his aides could recall being briefed about Mr. Kerik’s involvement with the company.

But a review of Mr. Kuriansky’s diaries, and investigators’ notes from a 2004 interview with him, now indicate that such a session indeed took place. What is more, Mr. Kuriansky also recalled briefing one of Mr. Giuliani’s closest aides, Dennison Young Jr., about Mr. Kerik’s entanglements with the company just days before the police appointment, according to the diaries he compiled at the time and his later recollection to the investigators.

The additional evidence raises questions not only about the precision of Mr. Giuliani’s recollection, but also about how a man who proclaims his ability to pick leaders came to overlook a jumble of disturbing information about Mr. Kerik, even as he pushed him for two crucial government positions.

[…]

In Mr. Kerik’s case, by the time Mr. Giuliani recommended him for the federal job, his administration knew that Mr. Kerik had acted on behalf of Interstate Industrial. It also knew that he had drawn criticism for a range of other incidents, from sending detectives to search for his lover’s cellphone to using officers to research his autobiography.

Mr. Kerik, who declined to speak about his troubles, now faces possible indictment on a range of federal felony charges, including perhaps tax evasion and bribery, stemming in part from his acceptance of $165,000 in renovations to his Bronx apartment paid for by Interstate. In June 2006, he pleaded guilty in the Bronx to state misdemeanor charges relating to the same renovations.

At some point this has to become an issue in the GOP primaries.

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Addendum to my post about Brownback

A few posts down I mentioned the rumors that Sam Brownback will endorse Rudy Giuliani, which I think would be foolish.

Yesterday I saw someone we know who worked in the Brownback HQ over the summer. She said that most of his Iowa staff have moved over to John McCain's office. 

Is activity picking up in the McCain campaign in Iowa? It would be interesting to see if he makes a late play for a second or third-place finish here.

Is Brownback dumber and less principled than I thought?

We've long known that Sam Brownback was not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but his possible endorsement of Rudy Giuliani would be one of the dumbest things I can imagine him doing.

Haven't seen anything on this yet at Cyclone Conservatives or The Real Sporer blog, but the gang at TPM has been all over the story:

Brownback said a few days ago that he has become “much more comfortable” with Rudy after getting assurances from Giuliani that he would appoint only “strict constructionist” judges:

http://tpmelectionce…

Brownback's former political director in Iowa says Sam may endorse Rudy as the candidate with the best chance to beat Hillary:

http://tpmelectionce…

The Family Research Council is very upset and says conservatives will desert the GOP if Rudy is the nominee:

http://tpmelectionce…

Endorsing Giuliani would be a really dumb move by Brownback. He campaigned as the guy with consistently pro-life views, and had support from many social conservatives, especially Catholics. To turn around and back Rudy is a slap in the face to them.

Presumably Brownback is angling for a position in Rudy's cabinet, or even the VP slot, by toying with an early endorsement. But let's get real. Are GOP primary voters going to nominate Rudy after seeing the ads his rivals will run against him? I know Fox News is in the tank for Rudy (he and Roger Ailes go way back), but they won't be able to save him from the ads showing Rudy calling himself the “liberal” mayor of New York, ads showing Rudy in drag, ads showing Rudy talk about being pro-choice and supporting state funding for abortion.

Not to mention the fact that Bernard Kerik is about to go on trial on federal charges–this is the guy Rudy pushed Bush to appoint as Homeland Security secretary. Great judgment there!

And who will be the first of Rudy's opponents to run this ad? When Rudy was appointed to the Iraq Study Group (also known as the Baker-Hamilton commission), he never bothered to show up for a single meeting. He was too busy giving $100,000 speeches to cash in on his 9/11 celebrity.

Romney, McCain and Thompson are not just going to hand this nomination to Rudy. They will fight him for it. 

And even if Rudy could get the nomination, I think he is far from the GOP's best candidate against Hillary. As I have written, Mike Huckabee is the one we need to be worried about–especially if Hillary is our nominee.

There are two obvious plays for Brownback. The safest one is not to endorse at all. The risky one would be to endorse Huckabee. He's a longshot who lacks money and faces the wrath of the Club for Growth. But at least endorsing him would show some principle and would upset social conservatives less than endorsing Rudy.

We'll see what Brownback is made of. 

Biden and Brownback planning joint campaign event

For those of you who can attend lunchtime events in central Iowa:

Join Us for an Unprecedented Bipartisan Summit in Pursuit of a New Way Forward

On Friday, October 12th, Republican presidential candidate Senator Sam Brownback and Democratic presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden will hold an unprecedented joint campaign event to discuss their bipartisan plan for Iraq. The event is hosted by the Greater Des Moines Committee on Foreign Relations.

WHEN: Friday, October 12
12:00 PM to 1:00 PM

WHAT: Biden, Brownback to Outline Iraq Plan

WHERE: Wakonda Country Club
1400 Park Avenue
Des Moines, IA 50315

Details:
This event is open to the public (lunch provided for $25.00).
For more information and reservations, contact the Greater Des Moines Committee on Foreign Relations at 515-282-8192.

I understand what Biden is trying to do here–as he has said in many debates, he has a plan for Iraq, and he has experience getting Republicans in Congress to support his agenda.

But this really annoys me. Aside from the fact that I think any partition plan is doomed to fail, Biden is throwing Senate Republicans a life raft. Now they can credibly say that they have voted for a solution to the Iraq problem.

The reality is that Republicans in Congress are still carrying water for the Bush administration on Iraq and everything else, and we need to call them on that. Biden is allowing them to make a show of voting to change course in Iraq, when we all know that this plan is going nowhere.

 

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Log Cabin Republicans produce best attack ad ever

This ad is a work of genius:

The Log Cabin Republicans support Rudy Giuliani, but they wisely say nothing of that in this ad.

They created the illusion of a positive ad (without scary music or unflattering still photos), while using clips of Romney that will absolutely annihilate him among the Republican base. Not only does it highlight his past support for Roe v Wade and keeping abortion safe and legal, in mentions his opposition to the NRA and even includes a clip of Romney saying, “I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush.”

Like I said, a work of genius. 

Newt won't give up his day job

Via Atrios, I learned that Newt Gingrich will not run for president, having learned that he would have to give up his day job to do so. Link is here:

http://www.msnbc.msn…

Key excerpt:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will not run for president in 2008 after determining he could not legally explore a bid and remain as head of his tax-exempt political organization, a spokesman said Saturday.

“Newt is not running,” spokesman Rick Tyler said. “It is legally impermissible for him to continue on as chairman of American Solutions (for Winning the Future) and to explore a campaign for president.”

[…]

Just last week, Gingrich said he had given himself a deadline of Oct. 21 to raise $30 million in pledges for a possible White House bid, acknowledging the task was difficult but not impossible.

He abruptly dropped the idea Saturday, apparently unwilling to give up the chairmanship of American Solutions, the political arm of a Gingrich’s lucrative empire as an author, pundit and consultant.

American Solutions, a tax-exempt committee he started last October, has paid for Gingrich’s travel and has a pollster and fundraiser on staff.

Gingrich makes hundreds of speeches each year, many paid. He will not say how much he charges, and neither will the Washington Speakers Bureau, which books him. But some clients have said they paid $40,000 for a speech.

Amazing that people will pay $40,000 to hear Newt speak.

Still, too bad he won't be running for president. He would be my dream GOP opponent. Even Hillary could beat him. 

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The best response to GOP fake outrage at MoveOn.org

David Shuster, filling in for Tucker Carlson, humiliated Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) on MSNBC today. She knew all the GOP talking points against Moveon.org, but she didn't know the name of the last soldier from her own district to be killed in Iraq:

Kagro X at Daily Kos picks up the story from Crooks and Liars:

http://www.crooksand…

http://www.dailykos….

Here's part of the transcript: 

Shuster: “Let’s talk about the public trust. You represent, of course, a district in western Tennessee. What was the name of the last solider from your district who was killed in Iraq?”

Blackburn:”The name of the last soldier killed in Iraq uh – from my district I – I do not know his name -”

Shuster: “Ok, his name was Jeremy Bohannon, he was killed August the 9th, 2007. How come you didn’t know the name?”

Blackburn: “I – I, you know, I – I do not know why I did not know the name…” [Snip]

Shuster: “But you weren’t appreciative enough to know the name of this young man, he was 18 years old who was killed, and yet you can say chapter and verse about what’s going on with the New York Times and Move On.org.” [Snip]

Shuster: “But don’t you understand, the problems that a lot of people would have, that you’re so focused on an ad — when was the last time a New York Times ad ever killed somebody? I mean, here we have a war that took the life of an 18 year old kid, Jeremy Bohannon from your district, and you didn’t even know his name.”

Plenty more commentary in the thread below this diary:

http://www.dailykos….

Anyone watch the Republican debate?

I forgot to set the VCR. From the looks of this thread at MyDD, I didn't miss much:

http://www.mydd.com/…

interesting tidbit here from Todd Beeton, who was watching the post-debate tv coverage:

The participants in Frank Luntz's post-debate focus group of 29 Republicans were unanimous in their disappointment in the candidates. A solid majority was pleasantly surprised by McCain and was most disappointed in Rudy Giuliani. They also called Romney a waffler.

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Will any Republicans run hard against Bush? (w/poll)

Over at Century of the Common Iowan, Noneed4thneed put up a video clip of David Brooks talking about how Republicans privately can't stand Bush, think he's incompetent, blame him for destroying the party and so on.

I don't doubt that this is true. They were happy to puff up Bush and smear his detractors when his approval ratings were high, but now that he's been below 40 percent for almost two years, he is a little embarrassing. Even the White House has given up on salvaging Bush's presidency (at least that's how I interpret Karl Rove's departure to work on other GOP projects).

So far Republican presidential candidates have mainly criticized the Bush administration on immigration policy. I was expecting some second-tier candidate other than Ron Paul to start calling for bringing our troops home from Iraq (using a soft-racist line like, “We've done all we can for those people”), but that hasn't materialized.

Newt Gingrich, who isn't running yet and probably won't run unless Fred Thompson tanks, is the only Republican besides Paul who has really harsh words for the Bush administration.

Mike Huckabee was on The Colbert Report tonight, and when Stephen asked him his signature question (“George W. Bush: great president, or the greatest president?”), Huckabee said Bush will rank right up there with McKinley and Harding, adding that Bush's presidency “will be a historic moment in time.”

Subtle, and only delivered to Colbert's liberal audience for now.

Is this the start of a new Huckabee strategy to depict Bush as one of our country's more inept presidents, presiding over rampant corruption and inequality?

If so, could this possibly be a winning strategy on the GOP side? Or would it put Huckabee out of the running for VP as well as the top of the ticket?

Or am I reading too much into all of this?

Take the poll and comment, if you like. 

 

Is Huckabee's rise good or bad for us?

I've long agreed with Kos that Mike Huckabee is the guy in the Republican field I'd least like to see us face in the general. Probably thanks to his experience as a pastor, he connects well with people both in person and on television. He doesn't have the baggage of the Republicans in Congress (voting in lockstep with Bush on Iraq and everything else). He has that inspiring personal story about overcoming obesity, a non-partisan issue that is salient for millions of Americans. He has executive experience. Particularly against Hillary, I think Huckabee spells trouble for us.

That said, I am not sure whether Huckabee's surprisingly strong showing in the Iowa GOP straw poll is good or bad for Democrats.

As you probably know, Huckabee finished second with 2,587 votes, or about 18 percent of the total cast in Ames. I think most of us would agree with Don at Cyclone Conservatives, who called Huckabee the big winner of the day.

His campaign spent about $150,000 on the event, including about 1,850 tickets they purchased for supporters. The group Americans for Fair Taxation claimed credit for Huckabee's strong showing; they spent about as much as the Huckabee campaign on the straw poll and bused about 1,500 people to the event (including about 500 who could vote).

Asked by Iowa Independent what helped Huckabee in Ames, his campaign manager Chip Saltsman said, “We talked a lot about the fair tax.”

In the comments section below that Iowa Independent story, Polk County Republican Party chairman Ted Sporer agreed:

Huckabee's committment to the Fair Tax is one of the reasons he is surging in our primaries because it is a specific tangible policy that addresses a specific policy itch in the Republican shoe, a dislike of hte convoluted tax code.

This is a mainstream R issue and Huckabee has found a simple and attractive way to address the issue and to stand for something tangible. 

Words matter.

Huckabee only edged out Sam Brownback (who, like Mitt Romney opposes the fair tax proposal) by about 400 votes. Take away those Iowans bused in by Americans for Fair Taxation and you'd have a very different story coming out of Ames.

What interests me most about Huckabee's showing is that he did it despite attack ads that the Club for Growth has been running against him on Iowa television stations. Presumably, they were trying to take him out of the running before the straw poll, and they clearly failed miserably.

Political insiders and junkies have known for a long time that the Club for Growth hates Huckabee, but their very public spanking of him (comparing his record as a tax-raising governor to Bill Clinton) seems to have prompted Huckabee to ratchet up his rhetoric against the business wing of the GOP.

Check out this clip from Hardball last week (hat tip to noneed4thneed).

I've watched it several times, and I still can't believe that a Republican went on tv accusing others of letting the GOP become “a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street and the corporations” that have let workers make money for their companies and then end up in the poorhouse. 

Huckabee says it's unacceptable for CEOs to make 500 times the salary of their workers and get huge bonuses while they drive their companies into bankruptcy. He talks about coming from a working class family and how he remembers his dad struggling.

I mean, does he sound like he's channeling John Edwards, or what? No wonder the Club for Growth hates this guy.

Now, I repeat that I would not want to face Huckabee in the general. He would excite the GOP religious base and not come across as too objectionable to independents. He is a social conservative, but he comes across as less scary than, say, Brownback.

But when I think about Huckabee making the top tier, getting more mainstream media coverage while portraying the GOP as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street and big business, I smile.

Having a Republican reinforce this stereotype will reach many voters who would tune out a Democrat making similar allegations.

You know how the liberal blogosphere goes nuts whenever a prominent Democrat lends support to a right-wing frame about Democrats? Like, when someone like Barack Obama says that all too often Democrats have seemed hostile to mentioning religion in public?

Well, think how mad the other Republicans will be if Huckabee keeps carrying the “GOP in bed with big business” frame to the mass public. What has he got to lose? The Club for Growth is attacking him anyway. There are a decent number of working class or struggling middle class Republicans who will probably like his populist message. 

I've always felt that part of the Republicans' success is that they don't campaign against each other by repeating negative stereotypes about the party. You don't hear them saying, “I'm not like all those other Republicans who just carry water for big business and screw the little guy.”

Huckabee just may be about to prove me wrong.

And if the Club for Growth and other candidates do crush his candidacy, it will only demonstrate the fact that business interests really do get their way with today's GOP.

The big risk for Democrats, of course, is that if Huckabee catches fire and manages to win the nomination, we'll have a much harder time making an “economic fairness” case against him.  

What do the rest of you think? 

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Great Ron Paul live-blog at Iowa Independent

Take a minute to click over to Iowa Independent, where T.M. Lindsey has live-blogged the Ron Paul rally in Cedar Rapids. It's a good read.

I've been saying for months that Ron Paul is not going to get major traction among GOP primary voters. It's not that Republicans aren't sick of the war–they are. But the diehard Republicans who think “we've done all we can for those people,” and it's time to bring the troops home, will never admit Bush made a mistake in taking us into Iraq. And that is why Paul will never be able to reach them.

Also, I think true libertarians are scarce in the GOP these days. But maybe I am wrong. He certainly seems to have a buzz surrounding his campaign, and he is the most coherent of the bunch in the televised debates.

Lest any of you think this is proof that Paul is a “liberal” or would be more at home in the Democratic Party, I refer you to this good set of diaries by “phenry” over at Daily Kos:

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul, In His Own Words.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: The Radical Right's Man in Washington.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: Dude is Wack.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul Hates You.

So what do you all think about Ron Paul and his potential in Iowa?

GOP debate open thread

Who had the bright idea of scheduling a televised debate at 8 am on a Sunday?

I didn't even remember to set the VCR. Maybe they'll broadcast it again tonight.

Anyone watch the GOP crowd today? What did you think? 

ARG Iowa poll: Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson

ARG, which has shown Clinton leading in Iowa all year, released a new poll today with similar findings. Details and a spirited discussion of this poll can be found over at MyDD. Here are the key findings:

Clinton 30 (down from 32 in last ARG poll)

Edwards 21 (down from 29 in last ARG poll)

Obama 15 (up from 13 in last ARG poll)

Richardson 13 (up from 5 in last ARG poll)

These numbers just don't ring true to me. I don't believe Clinton leads Edwards in Iowa, and certainly not by that kind of a margin. All year ARG has had Clinton around 30 percent in Iowa, and I can't remember any other pollster finding her with support that high.

ARG's new numbers for Republicans in Iowa are also at odds with recent polling by other firms. ARG finds:

Giuliani 22

Romney 21

McCain 17

Undecided 15

Fred Thompson 13

Gingrich 4

all others 2 percent or less 

What do other people think about this poll?

I guess when other firms release their results we'll find out which is the outlier: ARG or the latest KCCI Iowa poll conducted by Research 2000.

KCCI/Research 2000 poll: Edwards, Clinton, Obama, Richardson

Judging from the low number of undecideds, they pushed leaners too hard, but for what it's worth, here is the latest KCCI Iowa poll conducted by Research 2000, conducted July 23-July 25:

Edwards 27

Clinton 22

Obama 16

Richardson 11

Biden 3

Kucinich 2

Dodd 2

Gravel 1 

Undecided 16

It's good news for Edwards that there was no “Bubba bump” for Hillary–on the contrary, she was down 6 points compared to the last Research 2000 Iowa poll in May. Not good news for Obama at all. But the movement is not far outside the 4 percent margin of error for this poll. I still believe that around half of Iowa Democrats are undecided.

On the Republican side:

Romney 25 

F. Thompson 14

Giuliani 13

McCain 10

Gingrich 6

Huckabee 2

T. Thompson 2

Tancredo 2

Brownback 2

Hunter 1

Paul 1

Undecided 22 

How depressed would you be if you were Tommy Thompson, Huckabee, Brownback or Tancredo? Clearly the GOP base is unhappy with the crop of frontrunners, yet these second-tier conservative candidates can't get any kind of traction, despite spending lots of time in Iowa.

I don't know what is going to happen on the GOP side. It looks like everyone is unelectable to me, but someone is going to emerge from the primaries. Please, let it be Gingrich! 

The Republican Party is in worse shape than I'd realized

My dad was a Rockefeller Republican. He was disappointed by the turn the party took in the 1980s and 1990s, and though he died before George W. Bush was selected president, I've always felt that he would have definitively made the break from the GOP during this decade.

At the same time, I've felt that the number of disenchanted Rockefeller Republicans (liberal on social issues and supportive of things like progressive taxation and the estate tax) is not big enough to cost the GOP much in the electoral arena.

Tonight I ran into a former colleague of my father's, whom I hadn't seen in a long time. It was an eye-opening conversation to me; the circle of Republicans who are disgusted by their party's standard-bearers is broader than I had realized.

More after the jump. 

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Saw my first Ron Paul yard sign today

It's ridiculously early for yard signs–I don't think any of the Democrats are handing them out yet. So I was surprised to see a “Ron Paul–Hope for America” yard sign today in a fairly Democratic neighborhood on the west side of Des Moines.

If you know Des Moines, the house is just off Polk Blvd, close to the Waveland Cafe. I don't know the precinct number, but if memory serves, this was an area where Kucinich was viable in 2004.

Anyone else seen any yard signs up yet?

How much worse could it get for Rudy?

Seriously, Newsday breaks a story that he couldn't make time to attend the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group meetings, because he was too busy giving $100,000 speeches.

Then his Iowa campaign chairman, Jim Nussle, takes a job in the sinking ship that is the Bush White House.

Then his South Carolina campaign chairman gets indicted on federal cocaine charges.

Talk about a bad week! Stick a fork in him–he's done. 

UPDATE: Mike Glover of the AP covers Rudy's answers to some tough questions. Apparently he expects us to believe that he quit the Baker-Hamilton commission because it “didn't seem that I would really be able to keep the thing focused on a bipartisan, nonpolitical resolution.” 

Hey Republicans, Hillary is not for socialized medicine!

John Deeth put up his liveblog of a Mitt Romney event in Muscatine, and this part jumped out at me:

Health care and portability and preexisting. “The Democrats have their answer: Socialized medicine Hillary care is not the answer.” Big applause. Cites Mass. program and private sector.

The Republicans are so clueless. Hillary would do less to shake up the for-profit health insurance industry than practically anyone else in the Democratic field. It would be baby steps at most on health care. Nothing nearly as bold as what Obama and Edwards are offering, and certainly not single-payer, as Kucinich is advocating.

Even single-payer (“Medicare for all”) is not really socialized medicine, because the government would not be running all the hospitals and doctors' offices. The government would just be the payer.

But arguing these points with Republicans is pointless. They have decided that ultra-left-wing Hillary is for socialized health care, and they will pound this point home. 

Hillary Clinton would be an incredibly weak general election candidate–she's got all the downsides of the leftist image with none of the upside of a truly progressive policy agenda.

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Rural voters drifting away from GOP

At Political Wire, Taegan Goddard called my attention to this poll by the Center for Rural Strategies.

Although rural voters are more conservative than the average American, this poll found that rural voters prefer a generic Democratic candidate for president by 46 percent to 43 percent. Bush crushed Kerry among rural voters in the 2004 election, winning that demographic by 19 points.

This isn't my main reason for supporting John Edwards for president, but I think Edwards is the candidate best able to connect with the rural and small-town electorate, bringing more of them back to the Democratic Party. I know quite a few people in the sustainable agriculture community, and many told me during the last election cycle that Edwards was by far the favorite candidate in their localities.

Needless to say, I suspect that Hillary Clinton would be the worst candidate we could nominate from this perspective–the 1990s were the decade in which rural voters abandoned the Democratic Party in droves.

The Center for Rural Strategies also found that rural voters prefer a named Democrat for Congress as well by 46 percent to 44 percent.

This finding about Iraq also caught my eye:

While a narrow majority opposes the war, nearly 60 percent are close to someone serving or who has served in the fighting.

 

That is a massive percentage. In the Des Moines area, I know of quite a few people who have family members in Iraq, but it's nowhere near 60 percent of the people I know.

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Republican debate open thread

Anyone watch the Republicans debate tonight? I liked Letterman's line after their first debate–seeing those guys together on stage is like looking at the evil law firm from a John Grisham movie.

I'll be watching later, after kids are in bed. 

Deeth's liveblog is over at Iowa Independent.

If you caught it, who do you think were the winners and losers?

Any references to Newt or Fred Thompson? Rumor has it Newt is going to endorse Fred and try to be the brains behind that operation. What do you think–could Newt be Fred's Cheney? 

Speaking of Republicans, there's an interesting diary up at Daily Kos now, called Ron Paul hates you. For the record, I have never been a fan of Ron Paul, although i did think he performed well in the first Republican debate, in terms of putting forward a coherent ideology. 

UPDATE: Chris Dodd's campaign put up this graphic to call attention to the unequal allocation of time in the debate:

CNN, time to rein in Wolf Blitzer.  

Public Policy Polling shows Edwards and Romney leading

Chris Bowers has the numbers on the Democratic side at MyDD:

Iowa, May 30, 1,238 likely caucus goers, MoE 2.7%. No trendlines
Edwards: 31
Clinton: 17
Obama: 17
Richardson: 10
Biden: 4
Kucinich: 2
Dodd: 1
Gravel: 0
Undecided: 10
Six poll Iowa average: Edwards 27.7%, Clinton 22.8%, Obama 19.8%, Richardson 8.3%

He notes that this polling firm uses automated phone calls.

Political Wire notes:

On the Republican side, Romney is at the front with 31% support, while Fred Thompson comes in second with 15%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 10%, John McCain with 9% and Rudy Giuliani with 8%

I don't know whether Clinton and Obama are really that far back in Iowa, but I think it's fair to say that the recent ARG poll showing Clinton 31, Edwards 26 and Obama 11 was an outlier. 

ARG's likely voter screen for Iowa must be very screwed up. Their results have been very different from most of the other polling here all year.

Meanwhile, go read John Deeth's latest post to see why it's so hard to identify likely caucus-goers. Also, it's getting harder to get random samples in polls because increasing numbers of people either refuse to respond to pollsters or have only cell phones.

I imagine that Obama does quite well among the “only have a cell phone” crowd, so polls may be understating his support.

But if I were Obama, I would fire the scheduler who put him at a west-coast fundraiser instead of in Cedar Rapids on Saturday night. That was a crazy decision. He's rolling in money and is probably going to outraise Clinton in the second quarter. He's trailing in the Iowa polls and should have taken that opportunity to make the sale with party activists.

Ordinary voters won't care a bit about who came to the Hall of Fame dinner. But every one of the 1,000 people who attended can probably influence at least a dozen friends and neighbors. 

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The spectacle that is the GOP straw poll

It's no secret to anyone who has read my diaries on how the Iowa caucuses work that I am no fan of the caucus system. Give me a primary any day.

The Iowa Republican Party's caucuses are slightly less undemocratic, in that they do not have a 15 percent threshold in each precinct. Instead, every individual's vote is counted toward the candidate of his or her choice.

That's an improvement, although it doesn't erase the other problems of the caucus system: no secret ballot, no absentee voting, shift workers get screwed, the huge time commitment involved drives down turnout, etc.

Does the GOP run the Iowa caucuses better than Democrats because Republicans are more interested in fair procedures and representative democracy? Before you jump to this conclusion, I recommend that you check out this article from the Des Moines Register's Monday edition, on the embarrassing spectacle that is the Iowa Republican Party's presidential straw poll in Ames.

This is where the candidates spend lots of time and energy and money preparing to bus supporters to Ames from all over the state (and in some cases from out of state). It's supposed to show who has the strongest organization, but mainly it shows who can afford to bribe more voters with free tickets, buses, food and drink, etc:

Dan Pero is one such critic. The campaign manager for Tennessee Republican Lamar Alexander's 1996 presidential campaign also said the straw poll is a costly diversion of campaign resources that had no bearing on the nomination.

“The caucuses are real. The straw poll is a beauty contest,” Pero said. “I think they are meaningless and bad for the campaign. It takes a lot of money to organize for something that has no permanence on the outcome of the election.”

John McCain called it a “meaningless exercise” in 1999 when he bypassed campaigning for the caucuses during his first campaign for president.

Former Iowa congressman Jim Nussle, a top consultant for Giuliani, described the straw poll during a television interview last month as “kind of an 'American Idol'-style circus” and “meaningless.”

It should come as no surprise to longtime observers of McCain that Mr. Straight Talk has completely changed his tune and will aggressively compete to win the straw poll, which is scheduled for August 11.

I'll be interested to see whether Giuliani blows off this contest and risks the wrath of loyal Iowa Republicans who seem to enjoy the event.

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Checking on money and time spent in Iowa

I've been meaning to link to this page on Iowa Politics, which goes through the candidates' 1Q reports filed with the FEC and pulls out a lot of information on money being spent in Iowa. I encourage you to click the link, because there is a lot to learn there.

A couple of things jumped out at me. First, Obama has spent a huge amount of money here (over $630,000), far more than any other contender. True, some of this money seems to be for consulting related to events held in other states, but Obama also has the largest staff in Iowa so far ($152,966 in payroll for 52 Iowa staffers).

A while back I heard that Obama was planning to open 12 field offices in Iowa, which would be costly, but then again, it looks like he's not going to have to worry about penny-pinching.

Not surprisingly, Edwards spent the second-largest amount in Iowa during the first quarter, with  more than $188,000 total, including $87,850 in salary for 20 staffers.

Clinton spent over $123,000 in Iowa during the first quarter, including $68,550 in salary to 15 staffers.

The page at Iowa Politics also includes info on GOP candidate expenditures in Iowa. Click through if you're interested–Romney spent the most, followed by McCain and Tommy Thompson.

Another way to measure how hard the candidates are campaigning here is to look at the time they spend in Iowa. Jerome Armstrong put up this post at MyDD yesterday, tracking the number of events each Democratic presidential candidate held in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina during 2007 so far, as well as the number of days each candidate has spent in those states this year.

I recommend clicking the link to look at the table Jerome put together.

Some interesting tidbits: Obama's 13 events in Iowa were geographically dispersed, and he spent 10 days in the state. I think this is smart for him–he knows he can't win the caucuses by racking up huge numbers in a few counties.

Edwards has held 15 events in Iowa, spending 8 days here, mostly in central Iowa. I was a little surprised by this, because Edwards was quite strong in central Iowa in 2004. I expect him to spend more time in the medium-sized cities of eastern and western Iowa later in the year.

Clinton has held 18 events in Iowa, more than anyone else. Most of these have been in the eastern and southeastern parts of the state, which makes sense, because that's where so many votes and delegates are. Dodd has also spent a lot of time in eastern Iowa, while Biden has focused primarily on central Iowa up to now. 

To refresh everyone's memory, here are the eleven largest counties in Iowa in terms of delegates to the Democratic Party state convention. These eleven counties will account for more than half (1,336) of the 2,500 “votes” (state delegates) in Iowa next January. The population center of each county is in parentheses:

County – Delegates
Polk (Des Moines) – 357
Linn (Cedar Rapids) – 202
Scott (Davenport and Bettendorf, the Iowa side of the Quad Cities) – 142
Johnson (Iowa City, University of Iowa) – 137
Black Hawk (Waterloo) – 117
Dubuque (Dubuque) – 90
Story (Ames, Iowa State University) – 76
Woodbury (Sioux City) – 68
Pottawattamie (Council Bluffs, across the river from Omaha, Nebraska) – 55
Clinton (Clinton) – 46
Cerro Gordo (Mason City) – 46

Republican debate open thread

I forgot that there was a GOP candidates' debate scheduled for tonight, so didn't tape it.

Did I miss anything interesting? Let me know in the comments.

Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen's take is here. He calls Romney the overall winner, thought Giuliani had some good moments but that McCain was stronger in the first debate.

Noneed4thneed posted his reaction over at Century of the Common Iowan. He wonders why Huckabee isn't getting traction (no money, little media coverage, I'd say). He also thinks Giuliani and Tancredo did well.

Polk County Republican Party chairman Ted Sporer weighs in at his blog. I'm not going to summarize–click the link if you care what he thinks.

Don at Cyclone Conservatives gives his take here

And then there were 53

Representative Dawn Pettengill has made it official. She stood next to House Minority Leader Chris Rants today and announced that she is joining the Republican Party.

In a really classy move, she told the press before she told her former colleagues in the Democratic caucus.

Cue gloating from Republicans and hand-wringing from some commentators that the Democrats are allegedly outside the mainstream.

Pettengill said she wants to better represent her district in the House, which is fine by me. If she thinks her political future is safer by hitching her wagon to the Republican Party, we are better off without her.

The Des Moines Register adds,

Even worse for Democrats, Pettengill said there have been talks among some of the half-dozen or so other conservative Democrats of switching parties. She would not give names.

I consider this unlikely to happen with Democrats in control of the Iowa Senate and Terrace Hill, but just to be on the safe side, we’ll all have to work a little harder in 2008 to elect more progressive Democrats to the Iowa legislature.

John Deeth asks some important questions, including will she give back the money she got from Democrats (I doubt it) and how long has she been planning this.

House Speaker Pat Murphy and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy are saying that Pettengill’s move is unlikely to affect their ability to get things done, since

Rep. Ray Zirkelbach, a Monticello Democrat, is expected to return from serving in Iraq next year. That means their majority lead will remain about the same. In addition, they noted that Pettengill frequently voted against the Democratic majority anyway.

“This is more of a shift on paper then something significant that will affect our ability to govern,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy also told reporters today that the Democratic Party spent $250,000 helping Pettengill defeat a Republican incumbent in that House seat in 2004.

Murphy added some fighting words as well:

“The bottom line is, we feel we can win that seat back,” Murphy said. That is a Democratic seat and we expect to win it back. We’re going to go after it very aggressively.”

I’d rather try to win that seat with a real Democrat than be continually trying to placate someone like Pettengill, who clearly does not share the core beliefs of most Iowa Democrats.

Let the recruiting begin! Anyone have any ideas about who would be a good candidate for that district?

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Checking in with College Republican culture

I’m not the kind of blogger who spends a lot of time on conservative sites, trying to figure out what “the other side” thinks about this or that issue. My time on the computer is limited, and I would rather spend it reading blogs I enjoy and learn from. If Instapundit or Michelle Malkin or some such hack says something particularly noteworthy, I will probably run across it at one of the blogs I read regularly (e.g. Atrios’ “wanker of the day”).

But when John Deeth called attention to the University of Iowa College Republicans’ plan to hold a capture-the-flag game between the “illegal immigrants” and the “border patrol,” it piqued my interest.

Back when I was growing up, Dinesh D’Souza was just an annoying bigot at Darthmouth College, planning stunts and then playing the martyr when people called him on his racism. Seems like College Republicans haven’t evolved much since then, and why should they? Distort D’Newsa and others have parlayed this “victim of political correctness” act into lucrative careers.

So I wandered over to Cyclone Conservatives to see what they are up to these days.

Didn’t find any cheap stunts, but I did find an amazingly ignorant and malicious post whining about Democratic “sob stories.” Join me after the jump if you have any interest in hearing more.

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