The reasons Christie Vilsack will run and win in the new 2nd

1)  She wants it.  She's made that pretty clear.  And the 2nd is her only viable option to Congress. Running in the 1st would be worse, running in the 3rd would be mutually assured destruction for her and Boswell.  The only other real option is the 4th and while she would be a hero for taking on King, it would be very tough to win and even tougher to hold.  Which district would you want to represent if you were her?

2)  Money won't be a problem.  She is married to the sitting Ag Secretary and is BFFs with the Clintons.  This is regardless of whether the DCCC supports Loebsack, which is an open question (it is not the same analysis as supporting Boswell because Loebsack is newer and the Dem will win the general regardless).

3)  She has a base in the 2nd.  Her husband ran up big margins in far SE Iowa during his Gubernatorial campaigns.  She still has a lot of connections down there.  Not only that, but Loebsack has been remarkably weak in those counties (Henry, Jefferson, Des Moines, Lee, Wapello, etc) and there are still a lot of Democrats down there.  Loebsack has no base.  Johnson County would be the closest thing to it and Iowa City  would obviously be the big prize in a primary, but she could compete there.

Competitive primaries helped Iowa Republicans make “significant” voter registration gains between June 1 and July 1 of this year, Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro announced at a press conference today. Voter registration totals as of June 1 (pdf file) were 710,017 Democrats, 607,567 Republicans and 772,725 no-party voters. As of July 1, registered Democrats were down to 699,972, Republicans were up to 644,838, and no-party voters were down to 749,441. A press release from the Secretary of State’s office noted that “these totals include both active and inactive voters.”

Iowa law allows voters to change their registration on the day of a primary or general election, and there were many more competitive races on the Republican side this year. It appears that approximately 10,000 Democrats and 23,000 independents became Republicans in order to vote in the GOP primary on June 8. Mauro remarked that Republicans gained in voter registration in 2002, when three men sought the nomination for governor and two sought the nomination for U.S. Senate. By the same token, the number of registered Democrats increased substantially in 2006, when Chet Culver was running against Mike Blouin and Ed Fallon while Jim Nussle was unopposed for governor on the GOP side. But Mauro “couldn’t deny that the momentum is on the GOP side.”

Not every party-switcher is a guaranteed Republican vote in November. Some Democrats may have voted for the perceived weaker Republican candidate for governor, and I’ve known independents who vote in whatever primary is competitive, no matter whom they plan to support in the general. Nevertheless, it’s not good for the Iowa Democratic Party’s voter registration advantage to shrink by such a large amount, particularly since it will be challenging to turn out many of 2008’s new voters, who were mobilized by Barack Obama’s campaign. Approximately 1.5 million Iowans voted in November 2008, but only about 1.05 million voted in November 2006. I will be surprised if turnout this November exceeds 1.1 million.

Click here for updated voter registration numbers by county and by Congressional, state house and state senate districts. After the jump I’ve posted links to pdf files showing voter registration changes following the 2002, 2006 and 2010 Iowa primaries.

Iowa Democrats’ ability to execute their early voter program will be critical again this year. Strong early voting has saved several Iowa House and Senate seats the last few cycles. But voter mobilization can only do so much if there is a large enthusiasm gap between the parties. I also hope that Culver’s campaign has a game plan for bringing the dissatisfied Democrats home in November.

UPDATE: John Deeth doesn’t think the registration gains are anything to brag about, because they grew out of a divisive, still-unresolved primary.

SECOND UPDATE: Bret Hayworth notes the registration numbers for active Iowa voters: 661,115 Democrats, 615,011 Republicans and 683,817 independents.  

Today marks the beginning of early voting for Iowa’s June 8 primary election, which is exactly 40 days away. Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro announced a new way for voters to track their ballots at www.iowavotes.gov. From a statement issued by the Secretary of State’s Office:

“The new feature on our website is a terrific tool for Iowa voters and will bring additional transparency to Iowa’s early voting system,” said Secretary Mauro. “By using this feature, voters will know when to expect their ballot and when their completed ballot has safely reached their auditor’s office.”

Absentee voters will be able to view the following information about the status of their ballot:

·         Date the absentee ballot request was processed by the auditor

·         Date the auditor sent the absentee ballot

·         Date the voted absentee ballot was received by the auditor

Last fall, Congress passed, and President Obama signed, the Military and Overseas Voters Empowerment Act (MOVE Act). That legislation required states to develop an online absentee ballot tracking system for overseas military voters. Secretary Mauro decided to make this feature available to all of Iowa’s early voters – military and nonmilitary – regardless of location.  

In September 2009, Iowa was recognized in a national study as the top state in the nation in making voting accessible for military and overseas voters.

If you have a chance to see Mauro at one of his campaign kickoff events next Tuesday or Wednesday, please thank him for doing an outstanding job. Three Republicans are seeking the nomination for secretary of state: George Eichhorn, Chris Sanger and Matt Schultz. So far Schultz has the most Republican establishment support.  

Most of the competitive primaries in Iowa this year are on the Republican side, but three Democrats are seeking the nomination for U.S. Senate: Roxanne Conlin, Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause. Two Democrats are running against Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district: Matt Campbell and Mike Denklau. There’s also a two-way Democratic primary between Richard Clewell and Dave Thede in Iowa Senate district 41 (Scott County) and a four-way Democratic primary between Tod Bowman, Paul Feller, Brian Moore and Ed O’Neill in Iowa Senate district 13 (all of Jackson County and parts of Dubuque and Clinton counties). Five Iowa House Democrats are facing primary challengers: Dave Jacoby (district 30, Iowa City/Coralville), Geri Huser (district 42, east side of Des Moines), Ako Abdul-Samad (district 66, Des Moines), Chuck Isenhart (district 27, Dubuque), and Mary Gaskill (district 93, Ottumwa). Click here to download a pdf file containing the full list of Iowa candidates who qualified for the ballot this year.

Comments about early voting or any Iowa primary races are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that Iowans can also vote early at all 99 county auditor offices.

A few days after the primary, a lot of us are still licking our wounds in defeat, even as we move to support another candidate or focus on other races.  It can be devastating to lose a campaign and make one very pessimistic when they commit themselves to a candidate, fully believing that they will win, and finding that the voters didn't make the same choice. 

I wanted to write this diary to ask that we try to hold on to our optimism and to give a special thank you to those of you who worked to elect candidates because you truly believe in a better future.  I was most inspired to write this thank you note by my experiences with the staff of Ed Fallon's primary campaign.

I love to do the quick math when someone dumps a bunch of personal weath into a campaign run — Kurt Meyer (who cares where the heck he lives now eh?) put in $108,000 of his own (or his wifes?) money into this race.

For the just over 5,000 votes he got — he personally paid just over $22.50 per vote out of his pocket.  That is amazing.

I have seen enough. All of the pundits, liberal, conservative, man, woman, black, or white say the same thing: It is nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to catch up in the delegate count! To me that says, “It's time to bow out!” If we Democrats want to win in November Hillary Clinton has got to step aside, and clear the stage for Barack Obama to prepare to beat John McCain in the fall! Step aside Hillary, step aside!

I am a volunteer with the Fallon campaign (we need more of you guys!!!)

 I am also involved with getting more Deaf people involved in politics. I am trying to do outreach to the Deaf community in IA-03 and all over to support Ed Fallon – why?

 I made a short video to explain! Hope you all like it.

**hattip to Desmoinesdem for suggesting me to post this here**

Video is below 

    Forget about any surge you have heard spoken of over the past summer.  I'm not talking about a military surge in Iraq, or a diplomatic surge for the Middle East; the only surge I'm talking about is the surge of support Joe Biden has created in Iowa.

    Over the past few months, Joe Biden has amassed thirteen state legislator endorsements in the state of Iowa, including that of House Majority Leader, Kevin McCarthy.  This is more than John Edwards, Bill Richardson and just two short of Barack Obama.  The only candidate with more endorsements than Biden is the so-called “foregone conclusion”, Hillary Clinton.  Based upon these facts, one could argue Joe Biden is a top-tier candidate. This is an argument I am willing to make. 

    While his numbers remain low, Joe Biden is one of only two candidates who have increased their percentages throughout the election.  Going from roughly 1% in the polls to upwards of 8%, Joe Biden has increased his support eight-fold.  Once more, the only candidate matching Sen. Biden is Mrs. Clinton.  Though she may be leading in Iowa right now, she ought to have her eyes set steady in her rear-view mirror.  Joe Biden is racing up on the inside.

      Criss-crossing the state of Iowa, Joe Biden has been more active in the state than any other challenger.  As the holidays creep up, Sen Biden has just begun an eleven day visit to the Hawkeye State, connecting with Iowans at every stop.  Attendance at Biden events has swelled.  Early on, perhaps 15-20 people might have shown to watch the Senator speak.  Now a days, events may include anywhere from 200-400 attendees.  

    Now that Joe Biden has laid the groundwork, Iowans are beginning to listen.  Americans are beginning to listen.  With the combination of experience, foresight and charisma Joe Biden is surging in Iowa and around the nation.  His federalist solution for Iraq has gained traction, passing the Senate by a margin of 75-23.  The senator has recently laid out a plan to fix social security as well as education and protecting retirement savings. All I have to say is this:  Clinton, Barack, Edwards, watch out.  Biden is moving on up!

Hey Gang,

I wanted to give you another heads up that Senator Chris Dodd is going to be in Iowa tonight and all day tomorrow. I highly recommend anyone in the Des Moines area try to attend the Senator's Statewide Discussion on How to End the War in Iraq and Strengthen America, which will be taking pace at Drake University on Friday at noon.

Check out the Senator's full schedule for Iowa: http://chrisdodd.com/events

I'll be in Iowa with Senator Dodd, so if anyone wants to meet up, please email me: mbrowner-hamlin[at]chrisdodd[dot]com

I'd be available to meet this afternoon in Dubuque and tomorrow afternoon in Des Moines.

Hope to see you there!