I planned to write several posts this fall about the third Congressional district race between Representatives Tom Latham and Leonard Boswell. Instead, every time I sat down to write about the campaign, I found myself turning to other topics. Central Iowa radio and television stations have been so over-saturated with cookie-cutter attack ads against both candidates. If a political junkie like me finds it off-putting, I can’t imagine how disengaged other people feel when they hear the beginning of yet another negative commercial.

Neither Latham nor Boswell has offered a compelling case for re-election, but after the jump I review the main messages from both campaigns and from various outside groups that have been advertising in Des Moines and Omaha.

The Des Moines Register’s new poll by Selzer and Co is the latest survey to give no clear sign of whether voters will retain Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins on Tuesday.  

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney both headlined rallies in Dubuque today as two new polls showed the president ahead in Iowa.  

Four new Iowa polls were released during the past 24 hours, and both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s campaigns have scheduled multiple rallies in Iowa this week. Follow me after the jump for clips on those stories and related news.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added another poll below and excerpts from a new Romney campaign memo on Iowa.

In a sure sign that Republicans consider House district 43 competitive, State Representative Chris Hagenow’s campaign is spending tens of thousands of dollars on television commercials attacking his Democratic challenger Susan Judkins. The ads repeat several messages a Republican push-poll used against Judkins earlier this fall. My transcript and description of the commercial is after the jump. Bleeding Heartland previewed the House district 43 race here.

This thread is for any comments about Congressional races you are following, whether in Iowa or in other states. Steve King and Christie Vilsack held their seventh (!) debate tonight, but I was unable to listen, because Windsor Heights holds trick-or-treating the night before Halloween.

Democrats are starting to talk about a net gain of U.S. Senate seats, but I am not that optimistic. While some races are trending toward the Democratic candidates, others where Democrats led last month are tightening (Virginia, Wisconsin).

To me, the most amazing development in a Congressional race is President Bill Clinton campaigning for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and recording a television commercial for her. Bleeding Heartland readers who are old enough to remember 1990s politics, could you ever have believed that Bill Clinton would be considered an asset to a Democratic candidate in North Dakota a week before the election?  

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? All topics are welcome in this open thread. A few links on women voters and the gender gap are after the jump. As a bonus, I’ve enclosed an advertisement from the 1916 campaign about giving Iowa women the right to vote.

Mitt Romney is scheduled to take the stage in Ames shortly for his second Iowa rally this week. This time he is supposedly giving a major policy speech on economic issues. He plans to be back in Davenport on Monday, the same day President Barack Obama’s campaign has scheduled rallies with First Lady Michelle Obama in Iowa City and Sioux City.

The two new polls released this week show Iowa is too close to call. A one-day survey by Rasmussen Reports on October 21 found Romney and Obama tied at 48 percent. Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey for Health Care for America Now, conducted on October 23 and 24, found Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error (full memo with questionnaire here).

I’ll update this post later with highlights from the Romney event. Meanwhile, any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Didn’t hear any new “major” economic policy initiatives, but excerpts from Romney’s speech are after the jump. Bleeding Heartland user ghbraves pointed out in the comments that a Gravis Marketing poll on October 24 showed Obama leading by 50 percent to 46 percent in Iowa (within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error).

It’s time for another discussion thread on any competitive U.S. House and Senate races. More detailed posts about the four Iowa Congressional districts are in progress, but after the jump I’ve posted the latest information on independent expenditures for and against the major-party candidates. Bleeding Heartland covered the third-quarter financial reports for the Iowa Congressional candidates here. Early voting totals for each of the four Congressional districts are here.

I’ve also added a few links on U.S. Senate races around the country. I’m amazed that Democrats still appear to be favorites to hold a small Senate majority. For me that has been one of the most surprising political stories of the year. Republicans could still win a majority, but they would have to run the table in the tossup races.

Republican Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama in Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of likely voters in Iowa by 49 percent to 48 percent. For Romney, that’s a big improvement since PPP polled Iowa in late September and a much better finding than yesterday’s poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist.

PPP’s new poll also suggests Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins might not be retained. More details are below.

UPDATE: On October 21, PPP released a different Iowa poll conducted during the same period, which showed Obama leading Romney by 49 percent to 48 percent. I’ve added excerpts from that polling memo at the end of this post.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist released its latest Iowa poll today, which shows President Barack Obama ahead of Republican Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. It’s the best poll result for the president in Iowa this month. We Ask America conducted a one-day survey in Iowa on October 15 and found Obama ahead by 48.7 percent to 45.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 1.2 percent. American Research Group found Obama and Romney tied at 48 percent in its poll that was in the field between October 11 and 14. Rasmussen Reports found Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent in a one-day poll taken October 7.

Details on the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll are after the jump. Early voting and the gender gap are the key components of Obama’s advantage in Iowa.

President Barack Obama again pushed early voting and poked a little fun at Mitt Romney during a rally on the Cornell College campus in Mount Vernon today.

Fewer than 30 days remain until the presidential election. Any comments about the race in Iowa or nationally are welcome in this thread. I’ve compiled recent news, analysis, and advertising after the jump. I will update as needed, especially if any new Iowa poll comes out today. Gallup’s national tracking poll shows Mitt Romney gaining ground since last Wednesday’s presidential debate.

UPDATE: Rasmussen Reports has President Barack Obama leading Romney in Iowa by 49 percent to 47 percent, based on a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on October 7 (margin of error plus or minus 4.5 percent). Rasmussen’s previous Iowa poll had Romney leading 47 percent to 44 percent.

SECOND UPDATE: Added latest national polling data at the end of this post.

I haven’t been an optimist about Christie Vilsack’s chances of taking down Representative Steve King, to put it mildly. But over the past month I have become convinced that King and Washington Republicans are genuinely concerned about holding Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district.

Follow me after the jump for a closer look at King’s campaign strategy, along with polling data and some other news from the IA-04 race. Later this week I will post a similar piece about the Vilsack campaign, and a separate review of outside groups’ advertising in this district.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama face off in their first debate tonight, beginning at 8 pm central time. I’ve posted a few links related to the presidential race after the jump and will update during and after the debate. I don’t expect any major fireworks or gaffes.

Any comments about the debate or the presidential election in general are are welcome in this thread.

The Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll indicates a close contest for Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins, the target of an anti-retention campaign by social conservatives. In an unexpected move, former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants publicly advocated a yes vote on Wiggins, despite Rants’ opposition to same-sex marriage rights.

In related news, yesterday marked the end of the road for conservative activists trying to challenge Iowa’s 50-year-old system for nominating judges.

Follow me after the jump for details.

This evening, the Des Moines Register releases partial results from its latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. I’ll update this post with the details shortly. UPDATE: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 45 percent. More information is after the jump. UPDATE: Added more details from Sunday’s paper.

Speaking of the Des Moines Register, an unbelievable lapse in media ethics was the focus of this week’s Civic Skinny column for Cityview, written by former Register editor Michael Gartner (from the pre-Gannett era). Long story short: the newspaper published an op-ed piece about the allegedly unfair treatment of a first-time juvenile offender, without disclosing that the 17-year-old in question is the son of Des Moines Register editorial writer Andie Dominick.

All topics are welcome in this open thread.

A push-polling campaign with live telephone interviewers is underway in Iowa House district 43, where two-term Republican State Representative Chris Hagenow faces Democrat Susan Judkins. Following my own advice, I took detailed notes on last night’s call.

UPDATE: I am hearing reports of similar push-polls against John Forbes, Democratic candidate in House district 40, and John Phoenix, Democratic candidate in House district 38. If you have received these calls or push-polls targeting other Democratic House candidates, please let me know: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. If you get one of these calls, take notes if possible, and don’t be afraid to ask the caller to repeat the question.

SECOND UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal explained the difference between a real opinion survey and a push-poll on his Mystery Pollster blog. Whereas a real poll is designed to collect data from respondents and measure opinions, a push-poll is all about spreading negative information about a political opponent to as many people as possible, under the deceptive guise of conducting a survey.

American Research Group released its latest Iowa poll today, which shows the ticket of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden leading Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with just 4 percent of respondents undecided.  

Even with perfect methodology–random sampling, neutral question wording, and an accurate likely voter screens–approximately one out of every 20 political polls will be wrong outside the margin of error, just by chance. Two polling firms released snapshots of the Iowa electorate yesterday. They can’t both be right.

The first statewide poll on the 2012 judicial retention elections suggests that the four Iowa Supreme Justices who will be on the ballot this November have good chances of being retained. However, the pollster does not distinguish between support for retaining the justices as a group and support for Justice David Wiggins, whom opponents of same-sex marriage rights are trying to defeat.  

President Barack Obama held a campaign rally in Ames today, drawing a crowd of approximately 6,000 on the Iowa State University campus. I enclosed the transcript of the president’s remarks at the bottom of this post. As in all his campaign speeches, he framed the election as a “choice” between two paths, rather than as a referendum on his performance. Obama also emphasized his administration’s efforts to make college tuition and student loans more affordable.

The president will need strong turnout in places like Ames this November, because yet another Iowa poll shows the gap between Obama and Romney within the margin of error.

Republican Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent in Iowa, according to a poll Rasmussen Reports released today.

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey finds President Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 48 percent to 43 percent.

The National Republican Congressional Committee just announced the third set of GOP challengers to achieve “young guns” status, “the top tier of the Committee’s four-level ‘Young Guns’ recruitment program.” Two of the seven candidates to make the cut are Ben Lange, who is running against three-term Democrat Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district, and John Archer, who is running against three-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second Congressional district. The NRCC elevated Lange and Archer to “contender” status in May, along with Archer’s primary opponent Dan Dolan.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama in Iowa by 47 percent to 46 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 “Likely Iowa Voters” conducted on June 11. Romney’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Click here for survey questions; full results and cross-tabs are available only to Rasmussen subscribers.

The Obama campaign’s relentless stream of television advertising in Iowa is another sign that this state could go either way in November. Follow me after the jump for the latest commercial, which went on the air yesterday. It’s the second Obama ad this month that casts a negative light on Romney’s record as governor of Massachusetts.

A new poll by NBC News and the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion finds that President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney each have 44 percent support among Iowa registered voters. Details from that poll are after the jump. It finds a significant gender gap.

Speaking of which, I’ve also enclosed below a new anti-Romney commercial that Planned Parenthood Action Fund rolled out on Wednesday. It will run on broadcast and cable networks through June 19 in the Des Moines market as well as West Palm Beach, Florida and northern Virginia. I saw it on a cable network Thursday evening.

Crossroads GPS, the super-PAC headed by Republican strategist Karl Rove, is going up on the air today in Iowa and nine other states as part of a $25 million advertising campaign over the next month. The 60-second negative spot about President Barack Obama is after the jump, along with an annotated transcript.

In an interview with ABC News today, President Barack Obama confirmed that he thinks same-sex couples “should be able to get married.”

UPDATE: Added more Iowa political reaction below.

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa poll paints a pretty picture for President Barack Obama going into the general election campaign.

Groups opposing and supporting President Barack Obama’s re-election are making high gas prices the focal point of new television commercials in Iowa and other swing states. Videos and transcripts of the latest ads by the American Energy Alliance and Priorities USA are after the jump.

Last week Obama urged Congress to end tax breaks for oil companies, citing the industry’s high profits. U.S. Senate Republicans filibustered a bill that would have ended several deductions for five major oil companies and extended various renewable energy tax incentives. Senator Tom Harkin voted to move forward with that bill, but Senator Chuck Grassley voted to block it, as he did with similar legislation in May 2011.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee officials have not commented publicly on State Senator Joe Seng’s possible challenge to Representative Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second district. However, the DCCC has commissioned a robo-poll on the potential IA-02 primary.

Governor Terry Branstad’s approval ratings were mediocre during the first year of his fifth term, but the latest Des Moines Register poll by Selzer and Co found that 56 percent of Iowa respondents approve of the job Branstad is doing, while 58 percent have a favorable impression of the governor.

A majority of Iowans oppose a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, according to the Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll.

The Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll conducted by Selzer & Co included more than a dozen questions about issues Iowa legislators are considering this session. Proposals to raise the gasoline tax and allow a large utility company to bill its customers up front for a nuclear power plant were among the most unpopular ideas polled.

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum all lead President Barack Obama in the latest Iowa poll that Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register. The Register posted the toplines on its website Saturday evening. Paul leads Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, Santorum leads by 48 percent to 44 percent, and Romney leads by 46 percent to 44 percent. Obama crushes Newt Gingrich by 51 percent to 37 percent.

I’ll update this post tomorrow with additional details, to be published in the Sunday Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll of 611 likely voters (drawn from a sample of 800 Iowa adults) is accurate, Obama’s campaign has a lot of work to do here. Reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Iowa would be difficult for the president.

UPDATE: The exact wording of the election questions and results are here (pdf).

The House Majority PAC, a super-PAC created last year to help Democrats win back control of the U.S. House, is running a television commercial criticizing Representative Tom Latham, the Republican candidate in Iowa’s new third Congressional district.

House Majority PAC is also showing interest in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. Yesterday the group released topline poll numbers from eight House races, including the IA-04 contest between Representative Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack.

Follow me after the jump for the anti-Latham ad video and transcript, as well as further details on the IA-04 poll.

I just got a call and participated in a very long political survey.  Based on the questions as the survey progressed, I'm guessing it's a Latham or NRCC poll. (Thank you for the Tarrance background and NRCC information in your comment, DesMoinesDem.  Diary is edited to reflect your insight.)

The run-down of questions, based on my scribbled notes, after the jump. 

I didn’t expect this year’s Republican caucuses to be as much of a nail-biter as the 2008 Democratic competition in Iowa, but here we are on game day, and the top three GOP candidates could plausibly finish in any order.

Is Rick Santorum rising fast enough to finish in the top two on Tuesday? The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa poll before the caucuses is one of many to show Santorum gaining strength. Representative Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley made positive comments about Santorum’s campaign over the weekend. Although Rick Perry is criticizing Santorum’s record in Congress, there’s not enough time left to make an effective case against the latest “not Romney” through paid media.

The new Iowa polling numbers are after the jump, along with news from the stump and some candidates’ closing Iowa television and radio ads.