For the first time in six years, Iowa’s junior Senator Joni Ernst will not have a position on the leadership team of U.S. Senate Republicans.

On November 13, members of the GOP caucus chose Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas over Ernst for Senate Republican Conference chair, the third-ranking leadership position. According to Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News, the vote was 35 to 18.

ERNST HAD JOINED LEADERSHIP IN HER FIRST TERM

First elected in 2014, Ernst joined GOP leadership shortly after the 2018 elections, when she competed against Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska for the fifth-ranking leadership position. She moved up to the fourth-ranking role after the 2022 elections.

Cotton was considered the favorite for conference chair going into the November 13 leadership vote, in part because he has a better relationship with President-elect Donald Trump. Cotton was on Trump’s short list for vice president earlier this year and was one of just seven people to get a speaking slot at all of the last three Republican National Conventions. Ernst spoke during prime time at the RNC in 2016 and 2020 but was snubbed this year—possibly because even though she did not endorse a presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses, she was widely perceived to favor Nikki Haley. Ernst didn’t endorse Trump until March 6—the same day Haley ended her presidential campaign.

Republican lawmakers re-elected their party’s top leaders in the Iowa House and Senate on November 12 after increasing their already large majorities in both chambers.

With recounts likely in a few races, Republicans are on track to hold a 67 to 33 majority in the Iowa House (a net gain of three seats) and a 35 to 15 majority in the Senate (a net gain of one seat). Those are the largest contingents for the majority party in either chamber for more than 50 years.

Fifth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Matthew P. Thornburg is an associate professor at Misericordia University who studies elections. His mother’s side of the family hails from Greene and O’Brien counties, and he maintains close ties to Iowa and its politics.

In precincts lying in the path of the Summit Pipeline, Randy Feenstra underperformed the rest of his district slightly. However, most voters there and elsewhere in the fourth Congressional district remained straight ticket Republicans. Much of Feenstra’s mild underperformance arose from voters in O’Brien County, home county of his Republican primary opponent Kevin Virgil.

Carbon dioxide pipelines remain the issue Iowa Republicans wish would go away. While most political issues in the state are subsumed into the greater red vs. blue polarization of the country—where Republicans in Iowa enjoy the advantage–CO₂  pipelines create an intraparty split between the Iowa GOP establishment and some in the party’s conservative wing.

Ground zero for that tension is Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, where CO₂ pipelines were a prominent issue in both the Republican primary and general election.

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

Third in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

Donald Trump’s mastery of Iowa in the 2024 election is no more apparent than his performance in a batch of counties that border the Mississippi River.

For the last eight years, this region has been clearly in Trump’s corner. But it shifted even more decisively in his favor Tuesday.

Trump won these ten counties by more than 34,000 votes, according to unofficial results.

There were still a small number of ballots to be counted, but Trump’s victory in this region approached Barack Obama’s historic wins in 2012, at least in numeric terms. And, compared to four years ago, Trump won this stretch of Iowa by more than double the number of votes than he did against Joe Biden.

Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

The successful Republican effort to knock Libertarians off the ballot in three U.S. House districts may have influenced the outcome in at least one of them.

All three affected Libertarian candidates—Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth—indicated that they would continue to run as write-in candidates. Unofficial results show write-in votes for Iowa’s four U.S. House races this year totaled 3,616—about 0.23 percent of the 1,602,409 ballots cast for a Congressional candidate.

When Libertarian candidates have been on the ballot for recent Iowa Congressional elections, they have typically received 2-3 percent of the vote.

AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST DISTRICT

In IA-01, unofficial results show Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by 796 votes (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent). Bohannan has not conceded, and the race has not been called. But it’s unlikely that enough provisional ballots remain to be counted for her to overtake Miller-Meeks. Iowa no longer counts absentee ballots that arrive after election day.

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

This post has been updated with the unofficial results from each race. Original post follows.

Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

In November of last year, I asked, “Are Republicans really gaining among Black voters?” Since then, political reporters have written article after article on the subject. A New York Times story about a recent poll declared, “Black voters drift from Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid.” This week, Newsweek wrote about a different poll using the headline, “Donald Trump sees surge in support among Black Virginia Voters.”

Before I get the data, I want to make a serious point. These stories insulate Trump from the plain meaning of his language. See, he tells his supporters, I am not a racist: Black people are voting for me. So, while this question may seem like something only data nerds should care about, media coverage of the African-American vote has very real consequences for the political conversation in this country.

This post has been updated with unofficial results from the November 5 election, as well as the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures and absentee ballot totals as of November 2. Original post follows.

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

Kevin Virgil made waves in August when he urged supporters of his GOP primary campaign to vote for Democrat Ryan Melton in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. But when the conservative Republican cast his own general election ballot, he wrote in his own name for Congress.

Virgil had called on voters to shock the Republican establishment by supporting Donald Trump for president and Melton in the IA-04 race. He explained in August that while he disagreed with the Democrat on many issues, “the only way that our so-called leadership is going to get the message is if ‘we the people’ demonstrate that we are no longer willing to tolerate bad candidates.” He stood by that position even as Iowa GOP leaders circled the wagons around U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, the two-term incumbent who defeated Virgil in the primary.

But on October 24, Virgil announced in Facebook and X/Twitter posts, “I will be voting later today and will write my own name in on the congressional ballot.” He confirmed to Bleeding Heartland that he did so at the O’Brien County elections office.

Voters will decide in November whether to let Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May serve in that role for another eight years.

Justice May is heavily favored to keep his job. There is no organized statewide campaign against him, comparable to the well-funded efforts to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010 and 2012. His two colleagues who were up for retention in 2022 each received about 67 percent “yes” votes.

However, many reproductive rights advocates have circulated emails or social media posts calling on Iowans to vote against the newest justice, because in June he joined the 4-3 majority opinion that allowed the state to enforce a near-total abortion ban. Abortion is a more salient issue in this year’s election than it was two years ago.

It can be difficult for voters to find detailed information about the judges on the ballot. This post provides context on how Justice May has approached Iowa Supreme Court cases in several areas of the law. Bleeding Heartland previously covered the highest- and lowest-rated Iowa Court of Appeals and District Court judges who are up for retention this year.

If Justice May receives more “no” than “yes” votes—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—his tenure on the court will end in December. The State Judicial Nominating Commission would interview candidates for the vacancy and send three finalists to Governor Kim Reynolds for her consideration. Notably, nine of the seventeen commission members are themselves Reynolds appointees, so conservatives would likely end up on the short list of Supreme Court nominees.

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I will post Iowa’s latest absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, every weekday, based on figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. That office also publishes daily absentee ballot totals by county, state House district, and state Senate district.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last six election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowa’s early voting window lasted for 40 days through 2016, and was 29 days for the 2018 and 2020 elections. Only the most recent midterm also used the 20-day window currently in effect.

Also, keep in mind that this year’s early voting numbers will certainly be much lower than in 2020, when a majority of Iowans who participated cast a ballot before election day. Voting by mail skyrocketed during the last presidential election cycle, because the COVID-19 pandemic discouraged many from voting in person, and the Secretary of State’s office sent absentee ballot request forms to all registered Iowa voters. Republican legislators and Governor Kim Reynolds subsequently prohibited county auditors and the secretary of state from sending absentee ballot request forms to any voter who had not requested one.

The Secretary of State’s office now breaks down ballots received by voting method: mail, in person at a county office, in person at a satellite location, through a drop box, at a health care facility, or by email or fax (options for military or overseas voters). I’m keeping it simple with one table each day for ballots voters in each Congressional district have requested, and one table for ballots county auditors have received. After the election, I will write about how many Iowans used the various early voting options, and the partisan split for each.

In recent years, Iowa Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to cast early ballots. However, the Iowa GOP has invested in a big early voting push this year. So far, Republicans are not far behind in early ballots requested and received in the first, second, and third Congressional districts. The GOP leads in early voting in the fourth district, where the party has a massive voter registration advantage.

Remember, though: the tables below show how many Iowans of various partisan affiliations have voted early. That doesn’t mean they all voted a straight party ticket.

Iowans will decide this November whether to allow one Iowa Supreme Court justice, four Iowa Court of Appeals judges, and 64 Iowa District Court judges to remain on the bench. Since our state adopted the current judicial selection system in 1962, each judge must periodically go on the ballot—every eight years for Iowa Supreme Court justices, every six years for those serving on other courts.

Iowa voters have retained almost all judges over the past six decades. But any jurist who receives more “no” than “yes” votes in November—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—will be out of a job. Governor Kim Reynolds would fill any vacancies in early 2025, after receiving a list of finalists from the State Judicial Nominating Commission or its district-level counterpart.

While some people routinely approve or reject every judge up for retention as a matter of principle, voters who want to make informed choices often find it difficult to learn anything about the judges listed on the back of the ballot.

This post highlights the appeals and district court judges who received the highest and lowest ratings in the 2024 Judicial Performance Review, the main public source of information about Iowa’s judges. I will also explain why I plan to vote against retaining a member of the Iowa Court of Appeals and a district associate judge in Polk County.

A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland article will analyze how Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided high-profile cases since Reynolds appointed him in July 2022.

As misinformation about the federal response to natural disasters hampers relief efforts in the southeast U.S., several Iowa Republicans have seized the opportunity to spread lies about the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Echoing “pants on fire” claims from former President Donald Trump, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Ashley Hinson (IA-02) have repeatedly asserted that FEMA lacks the resources needed to help those harmed by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, because it has spent too much supporting undocumented immigrants. Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst have likewise claimed Americans are being shortchanged due to FEMA’s allegedly excessive spending on migrants.

Those lies are part of a national effort by Trump supporters and the leading pro-Republican cable news network to assist Trump’s campaign. For Iowa Republicans as well, the false talking points direct voters’ attention toward immigration and border security, topics perceived to boost GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Hinson all invested in election-year messaging about immigration long before the hurricanes made landfall.

Clark Kauffman is deputy editor at Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

The state of Iowa, where nursing homes have compiled one of the nation’s worst records for staffing-level violations, has joined nineteen other states in suing the Biden administration to block the implementation of new staffing requirements.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa, seeks to overturn the nursing home staffing requirements approved earlier this year by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

In their petition, the 20 states and more than a dozen industry associations argue that the new staffing requirements pose “an existential threat to the nursing home industry as many nursing homes that are already struggling will have no choice but to go out of business. And the main victims will be the patients who will have nowhere else to go.”

State Auditor Rob Sand intends to decide which office he’s running for in 2026 well before the end of next year, he confirmed during a September 30 appearance on Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck Zoom podcast. Sand talked mostly about his work as auditor during the interview. When Gammack opened the floor to questions, I asked about his future plans.

The only remaining Democratic statewide official in Iowa, Sand is widely perceived as a potential candidate for governor in 2026. If he runs, he could clear the Democratic field.

I raised the question of timing because Sand also considered running for higher office in 2021. He ruled out a U.S. Senate bid in May of that year but did not announce he would seek a second term as auditor until early December. Does he plan to leave other prospective candidates for governor hanging for most of 2025, or let Iowans know sooner, perhaps in the summer or early fall?

“So, I’m a human being,” Sand began. He hadn’t gone through that “complicated” and “difficult” process before the last election cycle. “And let me tell you, there’s no one who wishes I would have decided faster more than me. Maybe my wife,” he laughed.

“But it’s hard to figure it out,” Sand went on. There are personal factors to consider as well as “really important decisions” for the state and the public. Weighing his options in 2021 “was really difficult. I have now been through this once before. I think it will be easier, and I don’t think it will take as long this time.”

We often hear that Iowans like to re-elect their incumbents. But when it comes to members of the U.S. House, Iowa’s office-holders have less job security than many of their peers.

Across the country, voters have re-elected more than 90 percent of U.S. House incumbents in most elections over the past five decades. Here in Iowa, where our four districts are not gerrymandered, challengers defeated two sitting members of Congress in 2018, two in 2020 (one in the primary, one in the general election), and one in 2022.

Incumbents still enjoy inherent advantages in a Congressional campaign: higher name recognition, larger contributions from political action committees, more opportunities to generate news coverage, and an official budget that can fund outreach to constituents. But not all House members use the available tools the same way.

This post, the first in a series, will explore how Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has used her office to boost her re-election chances in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Notably, Miller-Meeks has spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on messages to constituents, with much of the spending going through her top campaign vendor. She has also built up goodwill by being one of the chamber’s most frequent floor speakers, and has used the earmark process to help fund projects in her district.

Members of Congress averted a federal government shutdown this week, approving a continuing resolution to keep funds flowing after the current fiscal year ends. Large bipartisan majorities in both chambers (341 to 82 in the House, and 78 to 18 in the Senate) voted on September 25 to fund the federal government at current levels through December 20. The bill also contains an extra $231 million in funds for the U.S. Secret Service to step up protection of presidential candidates.

All but one member of Iowa’s Congressional delegation supported the spending measure. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has not publicly explained why he was among the 82 House Republicans who voted against the last opportunity to prevent a shutdown.

Clark Kauffman is deputy editor at Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals is suing the federal government over its alleged lax oversight of a major Iowa puppy-mill operator.

The ASPCA filed the lawsuit on September 19 in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, naming as defendants the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Michael Watson, who heads the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Also named as a defendant is Tom Vilsack, the secretary of agriculture and former governor of Iowa.

The lawsuit alleges that the USDA has violated the federal Animal Welfare Act by repeatedly renewing the license of Steve Kruse, an Iowa-based breeder who operates a large-scale kennel in West Point and has a long history of animal welfare violations.

Brooklyn Draisey is a Report for America corps member covering higher education for Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

The Iowa Board of Regents is working with board staff and state universities to analyze diversity, equity and inclusion programs and positions and ensure their compliance under a state law set to take effect next summer.

President Sherry Bates said during the September 19 board meeting that she, along with Regents Greta Rouse, David Barker, and JC Risewick started this summer ensuring compliance with both DEI directives put in place by the board and Senate File 2435 at the University of Iowa, Iowa State University, and University of Northern Iowa.

While running for state treasurer, Republican State Senator Roby Smith touted his attendance record, noting in digital and television advertising that he “never missed a vote” during his twelve years in the legislature.

But since being sworn in as state treasurer in January 2023, it’s not clear whether Smith has regularly worked at the state capitol.

Staff in the State Treasurer’s office and the Iowa Department of Administrative Services refused Bleeding Heartland’s requests for records that would show how often Smith comes to work in Des Moines. After months of delay, both entities declined to provide keycard data that would indicate when the treasurer entered his capitol office. Smith’s chief of staff, Molly Widen, also said there are no calendar entries showing which days her boss has worked in the main office.

Iowa’s open records law stipulates that “free and open examination of public records is generally in the public interest even though such examination may cause inconvenience or embarrassment to public officials.”

While hundreds of prominent Republicans around the country have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, no well-known GOP activists in Iowa had joined their ranks—until today.

Dawn Roberts, who was one of three co-chairs for Nikki Haley’s Iowa caucus campaign, announced her support for Harris in a letter first published September 20 in Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck column on Substack, and a few hours later by the Des Moines Register.

A lifelong Republican, Roberts was Polk County co-chair for then Governor Robert Ray’s campaigns and served as state co-chair for Gerald Ford’s 1976 presidential campaign. She became the first woman to lead the Polk County Republicans and was the GOP nominee for Iowa secretary of state in 1986.

Roberts wrote in her endorsement letter that she was impressed by how Harris “showed a willingness to listen to a wider range of views to solve problems.” The vice president allowed people with different political perspectives, including some Republicans, to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

Every Iowa Democratic candidate had reason to celebrate the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). But arguably none had more grounds for optimism than Lanon Baccam, the Democratic nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

According to calculations by the Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Downballot), Trump outpolled Joe Biden across the IA-03 counties by 49.3 percent to 48.9 percent in 2020, while winning the state by an 8-point margin. So if Harris trails by only 4 points statewide now, she likely leads Trump in the third district.

Assuming the Selzer poll is off by the margin of error (plus or minus 3.8 percentage points), and Trump has an 8-point lead statewide, the major-party presidential nominees may be roughly tied in the IA-03 counties.

In other words, Baccam won’t have to overcome strong headwinds at the top of the ticket in order to beat first-term Republican Representative Zach Nunn, who carried this district by 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent in 2022.

I’ve been thinking about what else needs to happen for the challenger to win in November.

Editor’s note: This post discusses Selzer’s September 2024 poll of likely Iowa voters. Her final pre-election survey, which the Des Moines Register published on November 2, showed Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent. Original post follows.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

Ann Selzer’s gold standard poll is out, and suggests a remade presidential race in Iowa.

The top line numbers from Selzer & Co’s latest poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicate former President Donald Trump has 47 percent support and Vice President Kamala Harris 43 percent among likely Iowa voters. This poll started contacting respondents on September 8 (before the debate) and concluded on September 11, the day after the debate. At the end of this piece is a summary of post-debate national polling, which has found a gain for Harris of about 1 percent.

When you compare the new survey to Selzer’s numbers from June (Trump 50 percent, President Joe Biden 32 percent in Iowa), you will find a 14 point shift in margin. But purely focusing on the margin may be a mistake.

The last few weeks could hardly have gone worse for the Libertarian Party of Iowa. Republican activists successfully forced the party’s three U.S. House candidates off the ballot, leaving Nicholas Gluba, Marco Battaglia, and Charles Aldrich to run write-in campaigns in the first, third, and fourth Congressional districts.

Meanwhile, a crowded field of presidential candidates imperils Libertarian prospects to retain major-party status in Iowa for the next election cycle.

National Democratic groups are investing significant funds in Iowa’s first Congressional district race, suggesting they believe Christina Bohannan has a solid chance to defeat two-term Republican incumbent Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

The House Majority PAC, a super-PAC connected to House Democratic leadership, has reserved another $2.3 million in television advertising time for the IA-01 race, Ally Mutnick reported for Politico on September 9. Those funds will be divided among the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Quad Cities markets, which collectively reach seventeen of the district’s 20 counties.* Mutnick noted the super-PAC “reserved just $350,000 in that district in July.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which also spends heavily to influence U.S. House races, has already reserved $1,551,000 in tv air time in Des Moines, $534,000 in Cedar Rapids, and $438,000 in Davenport. Much of the DCCC’s Des Moines market buy will be directed toward the third Congressional district, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging first-term Republican incumbent Zach Nunn.

The planned spending is a huge contrast to the 2022 cycle, when Democratic-aligned groups spent less than $100,000 on the IA-01 race, while GOP-aligned groups spent more than $2.7 million on messaging that supported Miller-Meeks or opposed Bohannan. Ad reservations on this scale indicate that internal Democratic polling shows Miller-Meeks is vulnerable.

What might have been a slow news week in state government took an unexpected turn on September 3. Governor Kim Reynolds announced that Lieutenant Governor Adam Gregg was resigning, effective the same day. Minutes later, the Iowa Bankers Association revealed that Gregg would join the association as president and CEO, beginning on October 1.

There’s a lot to unpack here.

Labor Day is traditionally when voters start paying closer attention to the general election campaign. So it’s a good time to run through what Iowa voters need to do to make their voices heard, whether they plan to vote early or on Tuesday, November 5.

Jody Puffett will appear on the general election ballot in Iowa’s second Congressional district, alongside two-term Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery. While Hinson is not generally viewed as a vulnerable incumbent, Puffett’s candidacy could make the IA-02 race more interesting.

Since launching her campaign in early June, Puffett said in an August 28 statement, her “small but mighty grassroots team” surpassed the number of signatures needed to qualify as a U.S. House candidate (at least 1,726, including at least 47 signatures from at least eleven of the district’s 22 counties).

Puffett is the only independent candidate running for Congress in Iowa this year, and could end up being the only alternative to Democrats and Republicans in any of the four U.S. House races. Libertarians filed in the first, third, and fourth districts, but Republicans on the State Objection Panel knocked them off the ballot on August 28. It’s unclear whether the Libertarians will successfully appeal that decision in court.

JODY PUFFETT’S KEY ISSUES AND EXPERIENCE

Puffett has spent the summer “attending county fairs, community events, and going door-to-door to businesses across the district engaging with constituents.” She is trying to reach voters who are disenchanted with both Republicans and Democrats, and is highlighting the following priorities, according to her campaign:

Nancy Dugan lives in Altoona, Iowa. Disclosure: Dugan has filed several objections into the Summit Carbon Iowa Utilities Commission dockets in opposition to the CO2 pipeline. She has neither sought nor received funding for her work.

Late on Friday afternoon, August 23, the Iowa Utilities Commission posted a Motion to Declare the Acquisition of Certain Land Interests Noncompliant by the Bremer County Board of Supervisors. The motion was filed into Summit Carbon Solutions docket number 2024-0001 (SCS Carbon Transport LLC; Petition for Hazardous Liquid Pipeline Permit, POET – Fairbank and Shell Rock, IAL-501, IAT-401).

The motion centers on Summit Carbon’s announcement earlier this month that it had purchased land easement agreements from Navigator Heartland Greenway, LLC. According to the motion, “In 2021, Navigator Heartland Greenway (“Navigator”) proposed to route a similar carbon dioxide pipeline along a similar route in Bremer County.”

Navigator subsequently announced that it had canceled its multistate pipeline project in October 2023. An October 20, 2023, Iowa Capital Dispatch article reported that in response to Navigator’s announcement, Summit Carbon stated that it “welcomes and is well-positioned to add additional plants and communities to our project footprint.”

Bremer County’s motion included three exhibits.

“It’s been a great pleasure to come back and serve only ten miles from where I grew up,” Dr. Emily Boevers said during an August 22 panel discussion at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. “And it’s my joy to take care of women every day, and women of all ages, and women of many different circumstances.”

But the Waverly-based obstetrician/gynecologist painted a troubling picture of how abortion restrictions harm rural health care access in many ways, putting lives at risk—and not only for those seeking to terminate a pregnancy.

Democrats currently hold just 36 of the 100 Iowa House seats, the party’s smallest contingent in the chamber for more than 55 years. But two and a half months before the November election, the party is already set to pick up one Iowa House seat. Davenport school board president Dan Gosa is the only candidate on the general election ballot in House district 81, covering parts of northwest Davenport in Scott County.

GOP State Representative Luana Stoltenberg won this open seat by eleven votes in 2022, after a controversial series of recounts. She announced in January that she would not seek re-election, and Republicans were unable to recruit anyone to run here. No independent or third-party candidate filed before the August 24 deadline.

The district leans Democratic; according to a map Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting app, Joe Biden received 53.4 percent of the vote in precincts now part of House district 81, while Donald Trump received 44.5 percent. The latest official figures show the district contains 7,582 registered Democrats, 5,812 Republicans, 9,342 no-party voters, and 173 Libertarians.

Jack O’Connor is a States Newsroom Fellow for the summer of 2024. He wrote this article for Iowa Capital Dispatch, which was first to publish it.

After past failed efforts in the Iowa legislature, drug activists believe the next session will deliver legalized fentanyl test strips as support for the movement grows and the drug epidemic continues.

Fentanyl test strips are small strips of paper that can test drugs to see if they contain any fentanyl. Activists argue that by legalizing these strips, lawmakers could save lives by preventing accidental overdoses from fentanyl. Under state law, fentanyl test strips are considered drug paraphernalia and therefore illegal.

The previous effort to include the legalization of fentanyl test strips in a 2023 law fell short but gained some bipartisan support, said the amendment’s author, Democratic State Representative Megan Srivinas of Des Moines. Srinivas and activists are prepping to introduce legislation to legalize the strips next session.

I doubt either party has had a more successful convention in my lifetime than last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

I envisioned finishing this post on Friday, but it was so hard to choose my favorite moments that I ended up watching many DNC speeches a second time. My two biggest takeaways:

For the first time in many years, the Democratic ticket has better bumper-sticker slogans than Republicans.

• “Mind your own damn business.”
• “We’re not going back.”
• “Do something.”
• “When we fight, we win.”

All of those slogans are calls to action, and they encompass a wide range of aspirations and concerns about a second Donald Trump presidency.

Second big takeaway: The Democratic Party has a deeper bench today than I can remember. So many great speeches didn’t make the cut. Honorable mentions include the remarks by U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Maxwell Frost, U.S. Senators Raphael Warnock and Cory Booker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel.

I couldn’t have written this kind of piece after last month’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. As longtime GOP strategist Stuart Stevens and Democratic political commentator James Fallows both observed recently, the Trump takeover has produced an enormous talent gap between the two major parties. Republicans have chased away many with experience, skills, and crossover appeal, because only loyalty to Trump matters.

Any top ten list is subjective. I was guided not only by speeches that moved me, but also by those that seemed most effective in accomplishing one or more of the Democratic National Convention’s main objectives: firing up the party base, introducing the ticket to a national audience, and appealing to swing voters.

Kevin Virgil, who gained nearly 40 percent of the vote in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, has encouraged his supporters to consider splitting their votes: Donald Trump for president and Democrat Ryan Melton for Congress.

Virgil shared one of Melton’s posts on X/Twitter on the evening of August 23, praising the Democrat for opposing “land seizure for CO2 pipelines” and “corporate capture in Iowa and in DC,” while asking “hard questions about Iowa’s sky-high cancer rates.”

“If you care about our children’s future,” Virgil wrote, “then it’s time to think about voting for a split-ticket with Trump and @melton4iowa.”

At least ten candidates who identify as part of the LGBTQ community are running for the Iowa legislature this year. The previous high water mark was seven LGBTQ candidates in 2022.

The majority of Iowa’s gay, queer, or transgender candidates are Democrats, as has been the case in previous election cycles. This year’s cohort also includes the state’s first openly gay Republican lawmaker and an independent candidate for a House seat.

The candidates profiled below are mostly not highlighting issues of special concern to LGBTQ Iowans. Like others running for the legislature, they are campaigning on topics such as public education, reproductive rights, mental health services, and economic development.

At the same time, several candidates believe LGBTQ representation at the statehouse is particularly important now, in light of the many bills targeting the community that Republicans enacted or attempted to pass in 2023 and 2024.

All voter registration data mentioned below comes from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. Figures for the 2020 presidential vote in each legislative district come from maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

Democratic State Senator Liz Bennett is the only out queer member of the Iowa Senate and the second out LGBTQ person ever to serve in the chamber (after Democrat Matt McCoy, who retired from the legislature in 2018). Bennett is not up for re-election this year, having won a four-year term last cycle in Senate district 39, covering part of Cedar Rapids.

A legal challenge to a “giant step backward” for Iowa women ended this week.

Planned Parenthood of the Heartland, the Iowa City-based Emma Goldman Clinic, and Dr. Sarah Traxler, the chief medical officer for Planned Parenthood North Central States, on August 15 asked a Polk County District Court to dismiss their lawsuit challenging Iowa’s near-total abortion ban.

The state has been able to enforce the ban (House File 732) since July 29, making most abortions illegal after embryonic cardiac activity can be detected. That often happens around six weeks after the last menstrual period. The Iowa Supreme Court ruling that allowed the 2023 law to go into effect made it almost impossible for plaintiffs to show the statute is unconstitutional.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) is among eighteen House Republicans who asked Speaker Mike Johnson last week “to prioritize business and market certainty as you consider efforts that repeal or reform the Inflation Reduction Act.”

Miller-Meeks was the only Iowan in the U.S. House to sign an August 6 letter, first reported by Politico’s E&E News. Like others who signed, Miller-Meeks is on record twice opposing the energy tax credits: first, when she voted against the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, and next, when she voted for repealing many of that law’s provisions as part of a House Republican debt ceiling bill in April 2023. The language on tax credits wasn’t part of last year’s final deal to raise the debt ceiling.

Clean energy investments have skyrocketed in the two years since President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act. But as Jamie Dupree reported in the August 8 edition of his Regular Order newsletter, House Republican leaders call incentives for projects including solar, wind, aviation fuel, hydrogen, and electric vehicles “Market Distorting Green Tax Credits.” That has raised concerns the credits could go away if Republicans control both chambers of Congress next year.

The August 6 letter warned,

Robin Opsahl covers the state legislature and politics for Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

Iowans using wheelchairs through the state Medicaid program will no longer need a prescription and in-person doctor visit to get their wheelchairs repaired after a policy change by Iowa Department of Health and Human Services.

Democratic State Representative Josh Turek said in an August 13 interview that the measure proves advocacy can make a difference. Previously, Iowa Medicaid members were required to get a prescription and have a meeting with a health care provider in order to repair wheelchairs—a requirement Turek said was unnecessary, as wheelchair users have already been prescribed the equipment when they received it.

“This was just an unnecessary barrier that was causing an enormous amount of harm and suffering to the disabled population, delaying the process weeks or months for people to just be able to get a wheelchair repair,” Turek said.