“Our 2020 caucus plans remain unchanged,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann confirmed on September 6, amid news that state parties in South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Kansas will not hold presidential primaries or caucuses next year.

I wouldn’t bet the farm on the traditional straw poll happening at GOP precinct caucuses on February 3, 2020.

The last time I handicapped the Republican presidential field for 2012, the buzz was about Senator John Ensign’s Iowa visit. A lot has changed since June. Let’s take another look at likely GOP presidential candidates after the jump.

If you had asked me to guess which Republican governor would resign on the Friday before 4th of July weekend, I would have put money on Mark “I met my soul mate” Sanford of South Carolina.

But surprisingly, it’s Alaska Governor Sarah Palin who announced plans to resign without giving a coherent explanation.

I haven’t been right about everything, but I always knew John McCain did Democrats a favor by elevating Palin to superstardom.

This is an open thread.

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo has the full transcript of Palin’s resignation speech.

In this clip, Palin explains that she doesn’t want to “put Alaskans through” the horror of having a lame-duck governor. She’s transferring power to the lieutenant governor because she’s “not wired to operate under the same old politics as usual”:

Indictment? Family situation? Your guess is as good as mine.

I think we can all agree that someone who didn’t even stick it out for one whole term as governor has no future in electoral politics.

SECOND UPDATE: So much unintentional comedy in Palin’s speech today. I like this part:

Life is too short to compromise time and resources… it may be tempting and more comfortable to just keep your head down, plod along, and appease those who demand: “Sit down and shut up”, but that’s the worthless, easy path; that’s a quitter’s way out. And a problem in our country today is apathy. It would be apathetic to just hunker down and “go with the flow”.

Nah, only dead fish “go with the flow”.

So, she’s resigning after less than one term because she doesn’t want to take “a quitter’s way out.”

THIRD UPDATE: Steve Benen lays out seven possible reasons for Palin’s resignation. He thinks she is running for president. That makes no sense to me–she could have served out her term and not run for re-election in 2010, leaving plenty of time to campaign for president.

Chris Bowers thinks Palin mainly wants to cash in on her celebrity before running for president, but I lean toward Josh Marshall’s view. There may be a major scandal or criminal indictment coming down the pike.