Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with unofficial results as of November 8.

The successful Republican effort to knock Libertarians off the ballot in three U.S. House districts may have influenced the outcome in at least one of them.

All three affected Libertarian candidates—Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth—indicated that they would continue to run as write-in candidates. Unofficial results show write-in votes for Iowa’s four U.S. House races this year totaled 3,616—about 0.23 percent of the 1,602,409 ballots cast for a Congressional candidate.

When Libertarian candidates have been on the ballot for recent Iowa Congressional elections, they have typically received 2-3 percent of the vote.

AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST DISTRICT

In IA-01, unofficial results show Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by 796 votes (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent). Bohannan has not conceded, and the race has not been called. But it’s unlikely that enough provisional ballots remain to be counted for her to overtake Miller-Meeks. Iowa no longer counts absentee ballots that arrive after election day.

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

There’s not supposed to be any crying in politics.

Only sometimes there is. My own tears, even.

Iowa Democratic Congressional candidate Lanon Baccam, born in Mount Pleasant and raised by his immigrant parents, spent part of a summer speech talking about the Iowa of our youth when this state soared. Immigrants and blended families were embraced. Vision and kindness and big-heartedness prevailed in the state under Governor Robert Ray as we absorbed abandoned kids and refugees fleeing violence.

At one point Baccam motioned to me in the audience.

“I’m looking at Doug Burns right now, because his family looks like my family,” Baccam said during a speech to the Iowa Farmers Union in Elkhart, rural Polk County.

As misinformation about the federal response to natural disasters hampers relief efforts in the southeast U.S., several Iowa Republicans have seized the opportunity to spread lies about the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Echoing “pants on fire” claims from former President Donald Trump, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Ashley Hinson (IA-02) have repeatedly asserted that FEMA lacks the resources needed to help those harmed by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, because it has spent too much supporting undocumented immigrants. Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst have likewise claimed Americans are being shortchanged due to FEMA’s allegedly excessive spending on migrants.

Those lies are part of a national effort by Trump supporters and the leading pro-Republican cable news network to assist Trump’s campaign. For Iowa Republicans as well, the false talking points direct voters’ attention toward immigration and border security, topics perceived to boost GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Hinson all invested in election-year messaging about immigration long before the hurricanes made landfall.

Every Iowa Democratic candidate had reason to celebrate the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). But arguably none had more grounds for optimism than Lanon Baccam, the Democratic nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

According to calculations by the Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Downballot), Trump outpolled Joe Biden across the IA-03 counties by 49.3 percent to 48.9 percent in 2020, while winning the state by an 8-point margin. So if Harris trails by only 4 points statewide now, she likely leads Trump in the third district.

Assuming the Selzer poll is off by the margin of error (plus or minus 3.8 percentage points), and Trump has an 8-point lead statewide, the major-party presidential nominees may be roughly tied in the IA-03 counties.

In other words, Baccam won’t have to overcome strong headwinds at the top of the ticket in order to beat first-term Republican Representative Zach Nunn, who carried this district by 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent in 2022.

I’ve been thinking about what else needs to happen for the challenger to win in November.

Blake Iverson is a member of Central Iowa Democratic Socialists of America.

A crusading fervor has caught hold of many liberal news outlets following the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago. They marvel at the raw star power on display: the Clintons, the Obamas, the Emhoffs, and even Lil’ John graced the stage to celebrate Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race. They offer something of a benediction to the thousands gathered–elite operatives and rank-and-file activists alike–and readying them to go out and retake the shining city on the hill. 

But there is a striking absence from the convention itself and from the ebullient media coverage: the United States’s actual crusade in the holy land, the genocide in Gaza. While the Democratic National Committee allowed Palestine solidarity activists to hold a panel during the convention, and Vice President Kamala Harris uttered the word “Palestine” during her acceptance speech, the party made it clear, throughout the festivities and at every level, that the policy will not change. The genocide will continue until Israel and the United States finish the job.

Genocide apologists and the cynical within the party claim this is an unfortunate but necessary tradeoff between ending the genocide and electing Donald Trump. They are wrong. The choice is between not ending the genocide and electing Donald Trump.

Declaring that “This election is bigger than any one person” and “the stakes are just too high,” first Congressional district nominee Christina Bohannan on July 11 called for President Joe Biden “to withdraw from this campaign and pass the torch to a new generation of leadership.”

The same day, the Democratic nominee in Iowa’s second Congressional district, Sarah Corkery, said the president should “pass the baton” to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Bohannan and Corkery were the first Iowa Democratic candidates to publicly endorse replacing the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. It’s a risky move that could appeal to independents who overwhelmingly disapprove of Biden’s job performance, but could also alienate the party faithful the challengers need to volunteer for and donate to their campaigns.

Marco Battaglia announced on June 16 that he will run for Congress in Iowa’s third district as a Libertarian. His platform includes “promoting agricultural and medical freedom,” combating inflation with “sound money and sound economic reasoning,” and being “a voice for peace and prosperity.”

A longtime resident of Des Moines, Battaglia was the Libertarian nominee for Iowa attorney general in 2018 and for lieutenant governor in 2022, on a ticket with Rick Stewart. Libertarians regained major-party status in Iowa following that election, because Stewart received more than 2 percent of the vote for governor.

A Libertarian convention on June 8 nominated Battaglia, along with two other U.S. House candidates: Lone Tree city council member Nicholas Gluba in the first district, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth district. Aldrich was the Libertarian nominee for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat in 2016; he later was the party’s 2018 candidate in IA-04 and ran for an Iowa House seat in 2022.

Mitch Henry chairs the Iowa Unity Coalition.

As the campaign for Iowa’s third U.S. House district gains momentum, Lanon Baccam emerges as a beacon of hope for progress and a brighter future.

With a proven track record of dedication to public service, Lanon Baccam embodies the values and principles that will lead our nation forward. Lanon is a veteran who served eight years in the U.S. Army and Iowa National Guard and was deployed to Afghanistan in 2004. He has never forgotten his fellow veterans and has dedicated his life to helping them. 

Throughout his career, Lanon Baccam has shown an unwavering commitment to addressing the pressing issues facing our communities. Following his military service, Lanon served in the U.S. Department of Agriculture under former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. There, he worked to support veterans, expand pathways to jobs in the agriculture industry, and promote training and entrepreneurship opportunities for veterans transitioning to careers in agriculture.