OK, political junkies, show us your stuff. Who will win the high-profile primaries in Iowa today?

By that I mean, who will win the Democratic primaries in Iowa’s third and fourth Congressional districts?

Who will win the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? (Iowa Independent and the Des Moines Register have profiled the three candidates seeking to take on Congressman Dave Loebsack.)

UPDATE: I forgot that you can also predict which of these three Republicans will become the chump who’ll be lucky to get 40 percent of the vote against Tom Harkin this November.

I will update this post later with my own predictions for the Congressional races.

John Deeth has an outstanding post up going over some of the key primaries in the Iowa House and Senate races. I don’t know enough about those races to make my own predictions, but I encourage you to mention them in your comments if you want to test your prognosticating skills against Deeth’s.

SECOND UPDATE: Finally ready to post my predictions.

Although the GOP establishment seems to be behind Eichhorn for Senate, I’m guessing that Steve Rathje will win that primary. I give him zero chance against Harkin.

In IA-02, I think Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win. I doubt she will give Loebsack much trouble, and I’ll explain why another day.

In IA-04, I think Becky Greenwald will win with at least 35 percent, enough to avoid having to pick the nominee at a district convention. I say this because she’s raised a lot of money, she has the best connections in the southern part of the district, and it doesn’t hurt to be one woman running against three men in a Democratic primary.

In IA-03, I think Boswell will win but by less than 10 points. To be more specific, I’ll go with 54-46 as my guess.

Mike Lux also thinks Boswell will win but warns that his “over-reaction” will make it closer than it should have been:

Boswell’s over-the-top negative campaign against Ed has caused a serious negative reaction, and has got everyone talking. I talked to at least half a dozen people who said they were planning to vote for Leonard, but have switched to Ed because of the mailings, and even Boswell’s supporters have been made nervous and set on edge by the mailings.

I have not seen the Fallon campaign’s internal numbers, and I do not know enough about the process that generated them. My impression is that they did some kind of random selection of voters from the database and then had people call to check their preferences (correct me if I am wrong). My worry is that a lot of polite Iowans may have lied about their intentions when called by someone from the Fallon campaign.

Greetings from the road!

I am doing my best to type this quick message on an IPod Touch from an interstate rest area (great perk for travels in Iowa).

Please note that this evening on KCCI Channel 8, all four candidates will be presented.  2 (me) candidates at 5 PM and the other 2 at 6 PM. 

It is extremely exciting to have four great candidates in the district this year who are talking about the issues that are important to me and to my fellow Iowans.  Each has received endorsements from different groups with strong opinions on these issues, and it’s great to see these groups taking such an active role in the process.  

I expect that the turnout in our primary may be higher than it’s been in years, and that we can finally start reversing the damage the current administration and our current representative have done to our country, while carrying our nation forward in the future.  Therefore, I believe that we need a nominee who can carry that energy and that momentum forward into November and beyond, and I believe that nominee should be Kurt Meyer.

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Six months ago I made my first official contact with each and every Democratic County Chair, introducing myself, and my candidacy for the United States House of Representatives.  Six months later, Chairpersons in key counties still deny me access to their Democrats.  I have asked multiple times, and even done so in my email newsletters, viewed by thousands of Democrats in the fourth district.  Additionally,  my email news program allows me to track who opens the emails, the date and time they opened them, links they may have clicked on, and who they may have forwarded the emails to.

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No time for a long post now, but you can read the Des Moines Register’s endorsement of Becky Greenwald here.

I had a feeling they would go that way.

Let’s try to keep it civil, people. The editorial board had nice things to say about all the candidates.

If anyone attends tonight’s candidate forum in Ames, please put up a diary afterwards.

With only days to go before the June 3rd primary, it looks like some basic facts are finally coming out about Iowa'a 4th District congressional candidate Kurt Meyer. This past Friday, the Des Moines Register wrote about Kurt's tenuous connection to Iowa.

1. Kurt Meyer has not filed an Iowa tax return in TEN years!
2. Kurt Meyer officially got his Iowa driver's license on Dec. 31st, 2007.
3. Kurt's son attends school in Minneapolis – 4 years after Kurt MOVES to Iowa.

Kurt claims he moved back to Iowa in 2004, but the facts don't back this up.

Additional evidence of Kurt's purposeful deceit is found in a number of political donations that Meyer and his wife have made over the past several years.

If Kurt moved to Iowa 4 years ago, why have 4 out of 5 political donations to political candidates and the Iowa Democratic Party list his suburban Edina, Minnesota address?

1. Most recently Kurt donated $1,000 to the IA Dem Party on Oct. 17, 2007 and Meyer's put down the address of his home the wealthy suburb of Edina, Minnesota.

What's up with that?

2. A month earlier – Sept. 18, 2007 – Kurt's wife (Paula R Meyer) made an $1,800 donation to Hillary Clinton for President and listed their St. Ansgar home as her residence.

3. In 2006 Kurt donated his first $400 to the IA Dem Party and again used his upscale suburban Edina, Minnesota address.

4. Also, in 2006, Meyer's wife donated $250 to Spencer for Congress, again listing the Edina, Minnesota.

5. Another 2006 donation from Mrs Paula R Meyers for $500 for Klobuchar for Minnesota is listed at the Edina, Minnesota address.

Why did Kurt decide to run for Congress from Iowa rather than Minnesota where his high school aged son still lives?

No Iowa taxes no residence. What is Kurt hiding?

Iowa is obviously a great place to live, but is a person who has only lived in the state for a few months in his second home qualified to represent Iowans true needs.

Kurt's entire campaign has been dishonest about his limited connection to Iowa and Iowans deserve an explanation…

Maybe Meyer should try running in Minnesota next time, these are not deceits that Iowans will take lightly in November's election. The Democratic Party would do well to heed this warning or we will be sending Tom Latham back to Congress once again.

Below is a list of donations made by Minnesotan Kurt Meyer and his wife Paula R Meyer:

Just a reminder for those of you in Iowa's 4th Congressional district.   IA-4 Democratic candidates will attend local Candidate Forums to answer constituent questions.

Becky Greenwald, Kurt Meyer, William J. Meyers and Kevin Miskell will attend all three forums.

Fourth Congressional District Democratic candidate Forum

Sunday May 18th, 2008
1:00-2:00 p.m. Knights of Columbus Hall, Waukon
2:30-4:00 p.m. at The Oaks Steakhouse, Highway 9 in Decorah
5:00-6:00 p.m. at Mabe’s Pizza, Cresco

 Hope to see some of you there!

Scott – 

The Des Moines Register’s editorial board met separately with each of four Democratic candidates seeking to run against Tom Latham in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. It will probably be another week or two before that newspaper endorses a candidate.

In the meantime, the news report on the interviews focused on their general agreement regarding the Bush administration’s tax breaks for the wealthy.

I would think that fourth district Democrats need to know more about the differences between these candidates. Are there any significant federal policies on which they disagree? Which committees would they want to serve on in Congress? Would they have a different strategy for running against Latham, or bring a unique strength to the table in the general election?

As I’ve written before, I am staying neutral in the IA-04 primary, but the winner will get $100 from me. I would love to get Latham out of Congress this year, or at least make him work so hard that he seriously considers retiring before the 2010 election.

As Memorial Day nears and the death toll continues to climb in Iraq, most Democrats are united in our determination to extract our troops from Iraq safely and swiftly.  As important as withdrawing our troops is how we care for the troops upon their return home.  Yesterday I had the pleasure of speaking with retired veterans at the Iowa Veterans Home in Marshalltown about exactly that – how America should, and can, honor our veterans.  

At one point in my career of working with nonprofit organizations, I estimated having assembled and submitted close to 2,000 grant applications.  Through this process, I learned some important lessons that have helped prepare me for service in Congress.

The Madison County Democrats are leading the way with the first 4th District Congressional Candidate Forum!

This forum is open to the public.  Press and Bloggers are encouraged to attend.

I sincerely hope to meet many of you there!

Best Regards,

William J. Meyers

I recently spoke with a former client colleague who I assisted in a hospital expansion project.  Although it’s been several years since I worked with this organization, the project stands out in my mind as a very gratifying professional experience.

The challenge for this hospital was to generate the philanthropic funding required to build a new and expanded Emergency Room.  They needed $3 million to make this happen.  As I recall, their capital campaign generated $3.3 million and a terrific new ER opened 18 months ago.  It’s a handsome facility… but more important, it brings a much higher level of emergency care to an entire community.

One reality of healthcare today is a significant number of people coming to an Emergency Room do so without insurance and without ability to pay, knowing (hoping?) they won’t be turned away.  To address this situation, hospitals expand their emergency facilities.  Often, additional space is NOT driven by an increase in medical emergencies but rather the need for a universal healthcare plan, one that covers every man, woman, and child in the United States. 

I’m proud of this hospital… for the care they provide, for their commitment to the community, and for their many dedicated employees.  It was a pleasure to work with them and a good example of the positive results that can be brought about through a community-wide collaboration. 

But expanded facilities won’t solve our nation’s healthcare dilemma.  This will require positive results coming out of Washington, which in turn is likely to require a Democratic President and increased Democratic margins in the House and the Senate. 

Like many 4^th district Iowans, I am committed to meaningful healthcare reform.  I anticipate working hard to generate the desired results when a new congress convenes next January.  Of course, other changes must take place in the next 9 months for me to have this opportunity, including a change in our congressional representation.  I’m committed to helping make this change too!

Until next time, 

Kurt Meyer         

Congressional Candidate for Iowa's 4th District

Got this from Kurt Meyer campaign — looks like this thing is over and he will breeze into the nomination with figures like this!  I am impressed:

Dear Friends, 

We are pleased to announce that the Kurt Meyer for Congress Campaign has generated more than $130,000 in the first quarter of 2008. In the six weeks after Kurt announced his candidacy in mid-February, the campaign has received hundreds of generous contributions from family and friends throughout the District, across Iowa, and around the country.

Having the financial backing of citizens of the 4th District and the great state of Iowa sends a strong message to Washington: the 4th District is ready for Democratic leadership, and Kurt Meyer is the candidate to deliver that change.  What’s more, every dollar enables Kurt to reach out to citizens from each of the 28 counties of the 4th District to hear their stories and learn about their needs.    

It is undeniable that the generous support of family, friends, and voters has given the Kurt Meyer for Congress Campaign a great start. But it is only a start.  Running an intense, aggressive and effective campaign against an entrenched incumbent can take millions of dollars – but we can do this with your help.  If you’ve already given, we ask that you consider giving again. If you have yet to make a contribution, we ask that you join the hundreds of Kurt’s supporters who have already made a difference in this campaign by going to www.kurtmeyerforcongress.com and making a contribution.

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to broadening our support base with your help.

Best,

Emily

Emily Caponetti

Campaign Manager

Kurt Meyer for Congress 

As I’ve noted recently, the primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district has taken a strange turn, whereby the incumbent seems to be trying to make the race primarily about the challenger’s faults rather than the incumbent’s record of service.

I’ve been too busy in non-blog life to write up the day to day sparring following a recent e-mail from Leonard Boswell’s campaign, which attacked Ed Fallon on several fronts.

The criticism of Fallon by Boswell’s surrogates and supporters has focused on four issues in particular:

1. alleged ethical questions related to Fallon’s work for the Independence Movement for Iowa (I’M for Iowa)

2. the salary Fallon drew from unspent campaign funds following the 2006 gubernatorial primary

3. allegations that Fallon pondered running for governor as an independent after losing that primary

4. Fallon’s stand against taking contributions from PACs while allowing PACs to encourage their individual members to donate to his campaign.

I will cover each of those issues in a separate diary, because I don’t have time to write about all of them at once. Today, I will address the allegations related to I’M for Iowa.

Chase Martyn of Iowa Independent published a piece on March 20 called “Fallon Faces Campaign Finance Questions.” Martyn raised questions about I’M for Iowa’s ability to collect unlimited donations without disclosing the sources:

Although I’M For Iowa participates in political advocacy and relies on contributions to stay afloat, its financial status does not fit the typical mold for this type of organization. Rather than registering it as a nonprofit organization with the Internal Revenue Service under sections 501(c)(3), 501(c)(4) or 527, Fallon runs the organization as a for-profit general partnership, making its tax status no different from most home businesses. He and his current campaign manager, Lynn Heuss, co-own the business.

But there is a difference between I’M For Iowa and most typical businesses: Rather than sell products and services to customers, it accepts donations for its political advocacy work. While the donations are not tax-deductible, the business can accept unlimited amounts of money. And because of its tax status, it is not required to disclose information about its sources of funding.

Martyn also noted that two e-mails sent to I’M for Iowa’s distribution list appeared to have promoted Fallon’s Congressional campaign:

On Feb. 29 an e-mail Fallon wrote to his I’M For Iowa group invited readers to visit his campaign Web site and participate in campaign activities to coincide with his 50th birthday. And on Jan. 12 he sent an I’M For Iowa e-mail announcing his candidacy for Congress and providing a lengthy critique of his primary opponent’s voting record.

The result is a complicated question involving the nuances of campaign finance law. Can an unincorporated business accept unlimited contributions without the requirement to disclose its contributors and then use contributed funds to promote a congressional campaign?

Martyn suggested that even if no laws were broken, the questions could hurt Fallon’s image, since he has been a strong advocate of clean-elections laws (such as the Voter-Owned Iowa Clean Elections Act, which would create a voluntary system of public financing of election campaigns).

The Des Moines Register didn’t follow up on the Iowa Independent story until after the Boswell campaign drew attention to it a week later. Thomas Beaumont examined various questions related to I’M for Iowa in the Register on March 29:

The organization is a trade name registered with the Polk County recorder. Small businesses such as lawn care services and other sole proprietorships register this way.

However, some other advocacy organizations, such as the 15-year-old, Des Moines-based State Public Policy Group, is also registered the same way as Fallon’s group.

I’M for Iowa is not a corporation, over which the Iowa secretary of state has regulatory authority.

Fallon’s group does not have to report its sources of money or what kind of business it is. But it receives no money from corporations, said Lynn Heuss, Fallon’s partner in the organization.

It runs on contributions from individuals who support its agenda, which includes limiting large livestock confinements, curbing global warming, promoting campaign finance reform and preventing abuse of eminent domain.

It seems clear that there is no legal barrier to using the I’M for Iowa e-mail list to promote Fallon’s Congressional campaign.

Martyn wrote in Iowa Independent:

A representative of the Federal Elections Commission would not comment on any matters that regulators may have to rule on, but FEC regulations do not seem to explicitly prohibit coordination between a campaign and an unincorporated business entity owned by a candidate.

Beaumont’s March 29 article for the Register notes that

Campaign finance law bars corporate contributions from federal races. However, the law specifies corporations and limited liability companies, which Fallon’s group is not.

According to a press release from Fallon’s campaign on April 2, the information services department of the Federal Election Commission “confirmed that Ed Fallon has done nothing illegal or unethical.” The full text of that release is after the jump, but here is a relevant excerpt:

Fallon campaign manager, Lynn Heuss, provided the rules the campaign reviewed with the FEC Information Officer: From the FEC Candidate Guide, Chapter 4, Section 10, “Partnerships are permitted to make contributions according to special rules. 110.1(e) and (k)(1). For further details, see Appendix B.”

In addition, Chapter 4, Section 12 of the FEC Candidate’s Guide says, “When candidates use their personal funds for campaign purposes, they are making contributions to their campaigns. Unlike other contributions, these candidate contributions are not subject to any limits. 110.10; AOs 1991-9, 1990-9, 1985-33 and 1985-60. They must, however, be reported (as discussed below).” And a little further down under “Definition of a Candidate’s “Personal Funds” it says, “The personal funds of a candidate include: Assets which the candidate has a legal right of access to or control over, and which he or she has legal title to or an equitable interest in, at the time of candidacy; income from employment; ….”

Heuss clarified the only contribution the business has made is sending out two email messages, which constitute an in-kind donation, and is not in violation of FEC regulation.

(UPDATE: Chase Martyn reported on April 3 that the FEC denied making “any determination relative to the specific circumstances of any campaign”. Martyn added that Iowa Independent had merely questioned the ethics of how I’M for Iowa was used and not alleged that any laws were broken.)

If no laws were broken, what is the problem? The Boswell campaign has tried to suggest that there is something underhanded about I’M for Iowa. From the Register’s March 29 article:

“If he’s going to run on clean elections, then he should come clean about what he’s doing,” Boswell campaign spokesman Mark Daley said.

[…]

The ethics questions are the latest jab by Boswell ahead of the June 3 primary.

“On the surface, this looks like a fund to give him a job,” Daley said.

Although I’ve donated to Fallon’s gubernatorial and Congressional campaigns, I have never contributed money to I’M for Iowa. As a result, I haven’t followed the organization’s work very closely.

But if individuals want to give money to help Fallon advocate for clean elections, or organize opposition to coal-fired power plants and CAFOs, what is the problem?  

Non-profit organizations are unable or unwilling to take a position on some kinds of political disputes, so there is a niche for a business like I’M for Iowa.

Does the Boswell campaign mean to suggest that advocacy work is not a real job? That seems strange. Barack Obama’s supporters and television commercials have praised that candidate for working as a community organizer after finishing law school.

Frankly, I’m a little surprised the Boswell campaign wants to go down this road, since Boswell’s campaign accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars from corporate PACs in 2007 alone. I’m supposed to be concerned about the hidden agenda of individuals who have contributed to I’M for Iowa?

Asked to comment in the Register article of March 29, Fallon characterized the allegations as typical establishment politics:

“The political establishment attacks a candidate on his strength,” Fallon said. “My strength is my commitment to issues. They are looking for ways to discredit me.”

Fallon’s campaign addressed the controversy in more detail in statements released on March 31 and April 2. The full text of those press releases are after the jump.

Typically, a challenger needs to run a somewhat negative campaign in order to convince voters to reject the incumbent. The incumbent normally is content to ignore the challenger and run on his or her record of service.

In Iowa’s third Congressional district, a strange role reversal is underway, in which Ed Fallon is calling on Leonard Boswell’s campaign to “stop the negative attacks.”

Last week I posted the text of an e-mail from Boswell, which charged that Fallon is “no Democrat” and “has never acted in the best interest of our party.”

On March 24, Fallon issued a press release and a letter to his supporters responding to the attacks from the Boswell camp. It once again addresses Fallon’s support for Ralph Nader in 2000, and also responds to claims that Fallon’s work for I’M for Iowa has run afoul of ethical or campaign finance rules.

I am working on another post about the financing of the Boswell and Fallon campaigns, and will write more about allegations surrounding Fallon and I’M for Iowa in the near future.

For now, I will note that the Boswell campaign probably would not have stepped up the attacks on Fallon in March if their internal polling and voter contacts were encouraging. (I got a call from a field organizer for Boswell during the first week of March, and my husband got a call from an organizer for Boswell this past week.)

An incumbent who is not worried doesn’t go after a challenger this way two months before the primary.

When the first public poll of this race is released, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fallon within striking distance of Boswell.

The full text of Fallon’s press release of March 24 is after the jump.

it has come to my attention, that the Kurt Meyer campaign has excepted a $500 donation and endorsment of the Mitchell County Central Committee.  See link below for confirmation off his own website.

 http://www.kurtmeyerforcongress.com/node/59

My understanding was that this is not a common practice from central committees to endorse and donate money to an individual candidate if there is more then one candidate running, unitl AFTER the primaries. It could be construed as unethical and possiblly against campaign finance regulations. 

I have heard that there are some in the Iowa Democratic Party that may be contemplating filing a complaint against Kurt and/or the Mitchell County Central Committee.

 This is an open discussion, and any and all information would be greatly appreciated.

I received an e-mail from Kurt Meyer’s campaign in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, and it mentioned that incumbent Tom Latham is one of the Republicans being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

I hadn’t realized that the DCCC planned to put resources into flipping that seat. It will be an uphill battle, but if the climate is right for Democratic candidates nationwide and in Iowa, it should be within reach.

I am staying out of the primary battle in IA-04, but I plan to donate $100 to the campaign of the winner of that primary. I would love to see that district turn blue.

While digging around on the DCCC’s website for more information, I noticed that they have also named Leonard Boswell as one of 29 “frontline Democrats.” I do not know whether that means the DCCC will put resources into the primary race in IA-03.

Here is the ActBlue page the DCCC set up for all of its “frontline Democrats”:

http://www.actblue.com/page/fr…

Here is a map you can use to find all of the districts the DCCC is targeting this year, either for pickups or defense:

http://dccc.org/page/content/r…

UPDATE: brownsox analyzes the list at Daily Kos and says the DCCC is targeting 59 Republican-held seats for pickups and 31 Democratic seats for defense:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Slowly but steadily we’re opening our central campaign office, located at 600 5^th Street in Ames.  For those involved in Dr. Spencer’s campaign in 2006, it’s the same office suite.  I use the word “slowly” to acknowledge that creating the necessary office infrastructure – such mundane but essential matters as desks and chairs, working space and storage space, networks and systems – requires time and patience.  Often, the press of schedules, deadlines, and emerging priorities intervenes and interrupts efforts that might otherwise be directed to settling in.  The good news:  we now have an office and it’s opening up deliberately…  like a flower.  Soon we’ll be in full bloom.  And, yes, we’ll schedule an open house and invite everyone to stop by and say hello.

Mention of infrastructure reminds me of the need for Washington leadership to ensure that our country is making wise, long-term investments in the infrastructure required for life in the 21^st century… roads and bridges, of course, but also an electricity transmission grid and a high-speed Internet infrastructure to ensure modern telecommunication benefits for Iowans.