Perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B:

One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.

The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.

Mr. Davis’s firm received the payments from the company, Freddie Mac, until it was taken over by the government this month along with Fannie Mae, the other big mortgage lender whose deteriorating finances helped precipitate the cascading problems on Wall Street, the people said.

They said they did not recall Mr. Davis’s doing much substantive work for the company in return for the money, other than speak to a political action committee of high-ranking employees in October 2006 on the approaching midterm Congressional elections. They said Mr. Davis’s firm, Davis & Manafort, had been kept on the payroll because of Mr. Davis’s close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House.

The Obama campaign has talked about how McCain surrounds himself with lobbyists while posturing to be against the “special interests,” but this takes it to a new level.

Freddie Mac paid Rick Davis’s firm $15,000 a month for more than 30 months (that’s $180,000 a year for nearly three years) for doing no work other than staying close to McCain.

McCain either doesn’t know what’s going on in his inner circle or brazenly lied to the press. How can we trust him to run the country?

Speaking of McCain, after the jump I’ve posted a new viral e-mail that’s going around with the subject line, “You owe $2,293.53 dollars to Wall Street Fat Cats… check, cash or charge?”

The e-mail discusses how McCain and his adviser, former Senator Phil Gramm, voted to deregulate the banking industry, which led to the current stock market meltdown. Click here to read two alternative versions of the e-mail, playing on the same concept. Pass it on!

Saw this on Daily Kos on Tuesday:

From Iowa City, Iowa, a friend of mine writes:

“I saw am interesting omen last night.  They’ve closed the local McCain campaign office.  I go by there once or twice a week and I noticed last night that it appeared to be empty.  I double checked this AM and, indeed, it appears abandoned.”

After the jump I’ve posted addresses for the “victory offices” currently listed on this page of the Iowa for McCain-Palin website. The contacts listed for each office appear to be employees of the Iowa Republican Party.

Clearly the Iowa Republican Party will keep some field offices open to GOTV for statehouse races, even if the McCain campaign has transferred staff out of Iowa.

Bleeding Heartland readers, your mission (should you choose to accept it) is to check whether any McCain offices you’ve noticed in your area are still open. You can post a comment in this thread or e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com to let me know whether the offices have been shut down.

UPDATE: An alert reader writes:

I swung past 413 Northwestern Ave in Ames this morning.  It looked like mostly a Latham operation.  There are 15-20 Latham signs plastered across the front of the building but only one McCain-Palin sign, on the lower portion of the front door.  There is also a single Reed sign and maybe one sign for someone else, but I didn’t get a good look at that one.  I didn’t go inside but there were cars parked outside and it looked like it was still open.  

Thanks, and keep e-mailing me with reports like these.

Most of the electoral vote counters have swung in Barack Obama’s favor during the past week, but it still looks as if the presidential election will be close. In fact, there are at least two plausible scenarios for the candidates tying at 269 electoral votes each. That would happen if Obama won all the states John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, or if Obama won all the Kerry states except for New Hampshire, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

The Constitution stipulates that the House of Representatives picks the president if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes, while the Senate picks the vice president. But it’s not a simple vote of the House members; they vote by state delegation.

I’ve been wondering how this would play out, and today I came across this excellent post at the Campaign Diaries blog that analyzes the chances for either Obama or McCain to win the necessary 26 state delegations.

Before I read that post I hadn’t realized that this scenario could happen even if the electoral college splits 270-268, if a “faithless elector” switches his or her vote away from the winner.

I encourage you to click through and read the whole post, but the Cliff’s Notes version is that Obama appears to have a better chance of winning 26 state delegations in the House than McCain does. It’s also possible that neither presidential candidate could win 26 state delegations:

What would happen then? Well, the 12th amendment states that if by the fourth of March the House has not agreed on a candidate, the vice-president would become president. And given that Senate Democrats would have long already elevated Joe Biden to the vice-presidency, that could mean a Biden Administration.

The funny thing is, I think I would prefer President Biden to either Obama or McCain. But let’s hope Obama wins with a clear mandate on November 4.

Or does Sarah Palin sound like a high-school student using big words to fake her way through a college interview?

Remember, this is supposed to be her strong area. According to John McCain, Palin “knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America.”

When you think of the competent Republican women (like former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman or Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas) whom McCain passed over to pick Palin, it is quite amazing.

A new Research 2000 Iowa poll for the Quad-City Times shows Barack Obama beating John McCain by 53 percent to 39 percent. Obama’s lead among independents is 55-37.

Two days ago, Survey USA released an Iowa poll that found Obama ahead 54-43 (which I discussed here). Before that, CNN/Time and Selzer and Associates for the Des Moines Register also found Obama to be above 50 percent in Iowa, with McCain at least 10 points behind.

Get active with one of our down-ticket Democratic campaigns. We have a great opportunity to elect more Democrats on Obama’s coat-tails.  

The big event of the week will be the first presidential debate this Friday. You can sign up to attend or host one of the debate watching parties being organized by Democracy for America by clicking here.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that early voting starts in Iowa on September 25. Last week I gave some reasons to vote early, and Justus wrote a more comprehensive piece on the subject at BooMan Tribune. Remember, it was early voting that put Al Gore over the top in Iowa in 2000.

Please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if you know of an event I’ve left out.

Sunday, September 21:

Rob Hubler will be at the Monona County Democrats Annual Fall Rally at 4:30 p.m. in the Onawa Community Center.

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 3:00 to 5:00 pm at the University of Northern Iowa, Mauker Union – Presidential Room in Cedar Falls. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Tuesday, September 23:

Humanities Iowa and Trees Forever are hosting Voices From The Prairie, an Iowa Writers’ Celebration September 23rd, 7 pm at the Hoyt Sherman Place in Des Moines, Iowa. Our theme this year is “Mixing Sun and Shade” as we explore how the prairie meets the forest. Our featured authors are John T. Price and Debra Marquart, both will discuss environmental issues and be available for questions. This event is free. fmi: Humanities Iowa, dana-mcgillin@uiowa.edu, or steve@southslope.net

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 6:00 to 8:00 pm at the Mason City Library Learning Center, 225 Second St. SE in Mason City. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Wednesday, September 24:

From the Sierra Club e-mail list:

Please attend a forum on

Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund

The first two forums are this week–see the entire list of meetings below.

Grinnell  9/24/08 @ 6:30 pmOld Glove Factory,  733 Broad St. (part of

Grinnell College)

Independence  9/25/08 @ 6:30 PMHeartland Acres (the big, barn-like building

on the west side of Independence off HWY 20)

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including Sierra Club, TNC, INHF, Pheasants Forever, Ducks Unlimited, Iowa

Farmers Union, Izaak Walton League, Environment Iowa, Iowa Environmental Council, Iowa Rivers Revival, etc.) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural

Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund. […]

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next

time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009

legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

Trees Forever will host a symposium entitled “Leading the Way to Greener Communities – Where Culture, Economy and the Environment Grow Together” on Wednesday, Sept 24. The event will be held from 8 AM to 4 PM at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, located at 10th & Walnut in Des Moines. The symposium will explore the economic, cultural and environmental benefits of trees and green spaces in an urban setting, public policies on green infrastructure, and other timely topics. Special guest speakers for the day include Suzanne Malec-McKenna, Commissioner of the City of Chicago Department of Environment, and Alice Ewen Walker, Executive Director of the National Alliance for Community Trees. The cost of the Trees Forever 2008 Symposium event is $25 for Trees Forever members or $35 for non-members, and includes lunch and refreshments. Advance registration is requested. For more information, or to register, log on to www.TreesForever.org or call 1-800-369-1269.

The Center on Sustainable Communities is organizing another Demo Home Workshop:

Join COSC and USGBC Iowa Chapter at our Foundations & Basements On-Site workshop on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 from 11:00 am to 2:00 pm at the Des Moines affordable green demonstration home site – 1347 Forest Avenue in the King-Irving Neighborhood. A CHDC (Community Housing Development Corporation) project, this is the second in our series of hands-on workshops at the affordable green demonstration homes in the Des Moines metro area.

A big thanks to the funding supporters of these demonstration home workshops:

   * Greater Des Moines Community Foundation

   * Principal Financial Group Foundation

   * Iowa Department of Natural Resources

   * Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

   * MidAmerican Energy

For more details visit www.icosc.com

RSVP by Monday, Sept. 22nd to Emily at Emily@icosc.com or 515-277-6222.

Thursday, September 25:

There will be a 60th Birthday Celebration and annual pasta dinner for Secretary of State Michael Mauro. Please join Michael and his family to celebrate! Thursday, September 25, 5:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m., A. H. Blank Golf Course, SW 9th & County Line Rd. Suggested Donation: $20 (note from desmoinesdem: We all owe Mauro our thanks for his efforts to get rid of paperless voting machines in Iowa. Kick in a few bucks for his birthday if you can.)

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 6:30 to 8:30 pm at a location to be determined in Ames. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Also on Thursday, Sep 25, beginning at 6:30 p.m., learn about current, proposed conservation legislation and priorities of legislators and candidates, during a regional Candidates Conservation Forum in Independence, Iowa. Information will be presented on current and proposed state legislation to protect and enhance natural resources and the environment. Legislative candidates from a four-county area will be invited to speak about their priorities for legislation and answer questions from the public. The Forum will be held at the Heartland Acres Event Center, 2600 Swan Lake Blvd, in Independence, and is sponsored by the Conservation Board; Buchanan, Black Hawk, Benton and Fayette County Chapters of Pheasants Forever; Buchanan County Extension; the Friends of Hartman Reserve Nature Center, Tallgrass Prairie Center, and other conservation groups in the four-county region. There is no cost to attend.

Friday, September 26:

The first presidential debate will be televised at 8:00 pm central time. Jim Lehrer, Executive Editor and Anchor of The NewsHour on PBS will moderate at Ole Miss college in Oxford, Mississippi.

Saturday, September 27:

From a friend in Johnson County:

Saturday, September 27 is National Public Lands Day and Herbert Hoover National Historic Site is again looking for volunteers to help restore their 81-acre tallgrass prairie.

National Public Lands Day, is the annual nation-wide volunteer restoration effort for America’s public lands. This year’s work will

include cutting down shrubs and collecting or planting prairie seeds. Volunteers who work at Herbert Hoover NHS will be rewarded with a pass

good for free entry any day during the next year at public land sites managed by the National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, U.S. Fish and

Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Volunteers interested in getting hands-on experience with our natural resources on September 27 should contact Adam Prato at (319) 643-7855 by

Friday, September 26. Dress for the weather and wear comfortable work clothes. Work gloves and tools will be provided. Water, sunscreen,

sunglasses, and hats are recommended. Meet at the Visitor Center at 8:30 a.m. for an orientation and to get signed up. Work in the prairie will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

From a friend in Pella:

Women may be interested in Bodies in Focus, a day-long workshop for small groups of women, centering on my fine art professional photographic exhibit of REAL naked women.  The goal of our time together is for us all to move one step closer to     living more intensely as a body.  The workshop is for participant health. The photographed women and I want to share a unique and life-altering experience with portraiture, within a safe community. Ultimately, our gathering together will itself be transformational. The workshop will include exhibit viewing and thoughtful group discussion of being bodies (sharing is always optional).  Please plan to stay all day. You will be a group of up to 12 women, and so continuity of PRESENCE will be vital. Please stay for lunchtime,   as well, resisting the call to run errands.

WHEN: – We’ll meet on Saturday September 27, 2008 at 10:00 to 3:00, with an hour-long lunch included.

WHERE: –  My house: 900 Independence Street; Pella, IA  50219  (Located on the corner of Independence and West First Street)

FOOD: –  The lunch will be vegetarian (non-vegan). Please eat lunch here. Tell me if you have special dietary needs.

FEE    –  $65: Includes workshop and lunch. Please pay prior to the workshop. Bartering is an option.

Please RSVP to Rhonda (641) 621-0171

Sunday, September 28:

From the Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation:

You’re invited to an open house honoring Erwin “Erv” Klaas, the 2008 winner of the Hagie Heritage Award!

Please join us in celebrating this conservation hero.

Sunday, Sept. 28, 2008

2:30-4:00 p.m. Open house with refreshments

3:00 p.m. Short program and award presentation

Story County Nature Center, McFarland Park

56461 180th Street, Ames

The Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation presents the Hagie Heritage Award annually to a person with extraordinary service and commitment to Iowa’s environment. Learn about Erv’s outstanding conservation work at www.inhf.org/hagie2008-klaas.htm

For directions to the event, call the Story County Conservation Board at 515-232-2516.

For more information, call INHF at 515-288-1846 or e-mail us at info@inhf.org .

From the Polk County Conservation Board:

A-mazing Prairie Festival

September 28, Polk County

Gather the entire family and join us 11 a.m. – 5 p.m., at the Chichaqua Bottoms Greenbelt Longhouse, to play and explore a 14-acre prairie maze. A walk through this maze will not only challenge your navigation and problem-solving skills, but will educate you about our natural heritage as well. Free canoe floats, a raptor release, music from the Barn Owl Band, dog training demonstrations, education programs, and hayrack tours will take place throughout the day. This special event is free to the public. For directions, go online to http://www.conservationboard.o…

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 3:00 to 5:00 pm at the Iowa City Public Library, 123 S. Linn St. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Monday, September 29:

There will be a fundraiser in Des Moines for Rob Hubler, with a minimum suggested donation of $100. If you are interested, please contact Katrina at 712-352-2077 or katrina AT hublercongress.com

From the Iowa Environmental Council:

Projects WILD/WILD Aquatic/Learning Tree On-line Course, Starting September 29, Internet

This nine-week on-line class (9/29/08 – 11/30/08) introduces students to the national, award-winning Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree activity guides as well as Iowa supplements that provide additional background information and resources. All materials are correlated to National Education Standards. Participants are required to spend 3 hours per week on-line completing assignments. Participants should be comfortable navigating web pages. A majority of the course materials are provided on a CD. For more information, contact Shannon Hafner, Aquatic Education Program, Iowa DNR, 641/ 747-2051, Shannon.Hafner@dnr.iowa.gov

Survey USA becomes the third pollster (after CNN/Time and Selzer and Associates for the Des Moines Register) to find Barack Obama above 50 percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The poll found Obama ahead 54-43:

Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie.

Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, Obama leads by 7.

Among white voters — 95% of Iowa’s likely voters — Obama leads by 8 points.

11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.

John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa. Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.

Yes, the Big Ten Battleground States poll showing Obama and McCain tied in Iowa is an outlier.

I’m thinking the McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids on Thursday is the last we will see of the Republican ticket before November. We may get another visit from Joe Biden, but I doubt Obama is going to spend any more time in Iowa before the election either.

Side note: Rob Hubler and Becky Greenwald have to be encouraged by the news that Obama is slightly ahead in northwest Iowa and far ahead in northeast Iowa.

The Big Ten Battleground Poll released today shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually tied in Iowa, with Obama at 42.7 percent and McCain at 42 percent when leaners are not added, and Obama and McCain both at 44.8 percent with leaners.

I am not buying it.

It’s not just that Selzer and Associates, which has an excellent track record in Iowa, released a poll four days ago showing Obama ahead 52-40. It’s not just that CNN/Time released a poll two weeks ago showing Obama ahead 55-40.

It’s the fact that according to a commenter at MyDD who has dug into the methodology, the Big Ten Battleground polls did not weight the data according to turnout projections.

The reason Ann Selzer was right about the Iowa caucuses was that she weighted the results to reflect the record turnout she expected (about 60 percent of caucus-goers being first-time caucus-goers).

The Big Ten Battleground poll supposedly has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, but not weighting the results to reflect likely turnout of various demographic groups could introduce far more bias than that.

To cite one egregious example, this Virginia poll showing McCain ahead by 9 points was not weighted for race. As a result, it assumes that black voters will comprise less than 10 percent of the electorate in November.

Despite the fact that blacks were approximately 20 percent of voters in Virginia in November 2004, when John Kerry did nothing to target the state.

Despite the fact that the current Democratic nominee is black and is targeting Virginia with 35 field offices.

It’s worthless to even release a Virginia presidential poll with such ridiculous assumptions regarding turnout.

I suspect that the Big Ten Iowa poll has some similar erroneous assumption, perhaps underestimating Democratic or youth turnout.

On the other hand, I hope the McCain/Palin campaign starts spending lots of time and money in Iowa, hoping that we are a swing state. That will be pouring resources down a sinkhole for them.

John McCain and Sarah Palin will hold a rally at the Eastern Iowa Airport outside Cedar Rapids this morning at 10:00 am.

Somehow I doubt they will address any of Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius’s five questions for McCain.

Apparently the Q&A didn’t go too well at a McCain/Palin town hall meeting yesterday:

Asked for “specific skills” she could cite to rebut critics who question her grasp of international affairs, she replied, “I am prepared.”

“I have that confidence. I have that readiness,” Palin said. “And if you want specifics with specific policies or countries, you can go ahead and ask me. You can play ‘stump the candidate’ if you want to. But we are ready to serve.”

GOP presidential nominee John McCain stepped in, pointing out that as governor of a state that is oil and gas plentiful, Palin was familiar with energy. She knows it to be “one of our great national security challenges,” he said.

He also cited her nearly two years as commander of Alaska’s National Guard. “I believe she is absolutely, totally qualified to address every challenge as the next vice president of the United States,” McCain said.

McCain frequently says Palin knows more about energy than anyone else in America, even though she has falsely claimed many times that Alaska provides 20 percent of the energy produced in the U.S. In fact, Alaska doesn’t even provide 20 percent of U.S. oil.

This is an open thread for discussing the Cedar Rapids rally or any other McCain/Palin related news.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register is carrying the live video here.

After the jump you can read a statement from Jan Laue, Executive Vice-President of the Iowa Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO.

SECOND UPDATE: I only caught bits and pieces, but apparently McCain and Palin were hammering Joe Biden for supposedly saying that raising taxes is patriotic. Not surprisingly, they distort what he really said, which is that it would be patriotic for the wealthiest Americans to do their part by paying more taxes:

“We want to take money and put it back in the pocket of middle-class people,” Biden said in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Noting that wealthier Americans would indeed pay more, Biden said: “It’s time to be patriotic … time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut.”

On a trivial note, I was pretty sure I heard the Boy Scout leader or whoever he was flub the Pledge of Allegiance toward the beginning of the rally (I think he said “one nation, under God, individual”). If that happened at an Obama rally it would be the day’s top scandal on right-wing talk radio: Democrats don’t know the pledge!!

I’ve never understood why Republicans think this country is worth dying for, but it’s not worth raising taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent.

THIRD UPDATE: I highly recommend John Deeth’s liveblog of this event, which includes lots of photos.

I also enjoyed Radio Iowa’s write-up, especially this passage:

I look up, about five minutes into McCain’s address and see a steady stream of people walking out of the rally.  They just came to see Palin apparently.

Since late August, Republicans have been trying to appropriate Barack Obama’s change and reform message, branding the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket as a team of “mavericks” out to fix Washington’s bad ways.

During the past week, the Obama campaign has stepped up its efforts to highlight McCain’s ties to powerful lobbyists, in order to show that he would implement “more of the same” policies as president.

The first ad, which you can view here, begins with a clip from McCain on September 4, telling the GOP convention crowd, “It’s over! It’s over for the special interests!”

An announcer then says,

“Wait a second. John McCain’s chief adviser lobbies for oil companies, even from Russia and China. His campaign manager lobbies for corporations outsourcing American jobs. The campaign chairman he picked last year — a bank lobbyist. If seven of McCain’s top advisers are lobbyists, who do you think will run his White House? John McCain. We just can’t afford more of the same.”

The Obama campaign just launched a new ad this week focusing on lobbyists as they related to failed economic policies:

BARACK: I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message.

ANNCR: His campaign is run by lobbyists.

Now we find out McCain’s White House will be lobbyist-run too.

McCain just picked a Washington super lobbyist to plan his administration.

A “consummate insider” who lobbies for oil companies. The credit card industry.

Special interests rigging the system

Pushing Bush economics

Corporate special interests rigging the system against hard working Americans…pushing failed Bush economics. Does that sound like change

to you?

We just can’t afford more of the same.

Here in Iowa, State Senator Steve Warnstadt released a report today on McCain doing the bidding of oil industry lobbyists instead of supporting policies to promote renewable energy production in our state:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 17, 2008                                                                

Contact: Brooke Borkenhagen

507-317-4104

SEN. STEVE WARNSTADT RELEASES REPORT ON JOHN MCCAIN’S TIES TO WASHINGTON LOBBYISTS

McCain Puts Lobbyists Ahead of Iowa-Grown Renewable Energy

Sioux City,  IA – On the eve of Sen. John McCain’s visit to  Iowa , State Sen. Steve Warnstadt held a press conference in  Sioux City to release a new report on Sen. McCain’s ties to  Washington lobbyists.  Sen. Warnstadt discussed how McCain’s close ties to oil company lobbyists come at the expense of Iowa-grown renewable energy and hardworking  Iowa families who are struggling with record prices at the pump.

John McCain doesn’t understand that  Iowa is leading our way to energy independence.  Just yesterday, a new blade plant for wind turbines opened in  Newton , creating 500 good-paying jobs in our state. Iowa-produced renewable energy is critical to  Iowa ‘s economy, producing $1,000 of income per  Iowa household, and has created nearly 100,000 jobs throughout the state. John McCain has opposed tax credits to boost the wind energy industry in our state and he has even called  Iowa ethanol “highway robbery.”

This report entitled “No Reformer: McCain Puts Lobbyists First While Americans Struggle,” illustrates that after 26 years in Washington, John McCain means more of the same failed Bush policies that put Exxon Mobil ahead of Iowa-produced renewable energy. John McCain says that he’ll take on the special interests and lobbyists, but eight of his closest advisors and aides are former lobbyists.

“Iowans are struggling with record gas prices and Sen. McCain’s solution is to slash all investment in Iowa-grown ethanol and give $4 billion in tax giveaways to big oil companies,” said State Sen. Steve Warnstadt.  ”  Iowa has seen nearly 1,000 wind energy jobs created in the last year, but McCain has opposed the renewable energy tax credits that helped create them.  That’s not the change we want and deserve.  Iowans can’t afford more of the same.”

To view the full report, click on the following link: http://www.democrats.org/page/…

I find this line of attack easy to grasp, but somewhere I read a piece arguing that low-information voters don’t know what a lobbyist is or what a lobbyist does.

Do you think undecided voters will be swayed by this line of attack against McCain? Or do we need to talk more about the bills he has voted for rather than whom he employs on his campaign?

Didn’t get this on my calendar of events, but I received this e-mail from the Obama-Biden campaign:

TODAY: Governor Sebelius to Visit Iowa; Has Five Questions Senator McCain Needs to Answer when he Returns to Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa – On Tuesday, September 16th, 2008, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius will visit Iowa on behalf of the Obama campaign.  Governor Sebelius will start her trip in Cedar Rapids where she will hold a town hall and present five questions that Senator McCain must answer when he returns to Iowa on Thursday.

Governor Sebelius will then travel to Iowa City for a brown bag lunch and to West Burlington for a town hall. The details of the events are:

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2008

10:15 AM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a town hall and present five questions that Senator McCain must answer when he returns to Iowa

IBEW Hall

1211 Wiley Blvd.

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Doors open at 9:45 AM CDT

12:15 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a brown bag lunch

Iowa City Public Library – Room A

123 S Linn St.

Iowa City, Iowa

Doors open at 11:45 AM CDT

3:40 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a town hall

Southeastern Community College – Room 123

1500 West Agency Road

West Burlington, Iowa

Doors open at 3:15 PM CDT

Post a comment or put up a diary if you get to one of these events. Sebelius campaigned in central Iowa last month.

UPDATE: Here is a statement from the Obama campaign on the questions Sebelius would like John McCain and Sarah Palin to answer:

Des Moines – Today, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and West Burlington, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius discussed with Iowans the five questions Senator McCain should answer to the people of Iowa during his trip to Iowa this Thursday.

“I know Senator McCain and Governor Palin would rather talk about anything other than the economy these days,” said Governor Sebelius.  “However, there are important questions that must be asked and answered, such as does Senator McCain honestly still believe the ‘fundamentals of our economy are strong?’”

5 QUESTIONS FOR MCCAIN AND/OR PALIN:

1.         Do you honestly believe that the “fundamentals of our economy are strong”?

BACKGROUND:

·        On Monday, John McCain said: “McCain: You know, that there’s been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street and it is — people are frightened by these events. Our economy, I think, still the fundamentals of our economy are strong. But these are very, very difficult times.”

·        That very same day, Lehman Brothers filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy and listed debts of $613 billion.

·        Americans have lost more than 600,000 jobs this year.

2.         Will you finally admit to the American people that Barack Obama offers more in tax relief to middle class families than you do?

BACKGROUND:

·        Barack Obama strongly believes in lowering taxes for middle class families, and will cut middle class taxes by 3 times as much as McCain.

·        The Obama economic plan will provide 95 percent of Iowa workers and their families with a $1,000 middle class tax cut.

·        According to an independent analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, Barack Obama offers a family making between $37,000 to $66,000 per year at tax cut of $1,042.  John McCain offers a family making the same amount a tax cut of only $319.

3.         Will you admit that your economic proposal provides $300 billion more in tax cuts to big corporations, yet leaves out 67 percent of Iowa households?

BACKGROUND:

·        John McCain wants to give oil companies an additional $4 billion in tax cuts, including giving Exxon Mobil an additional $1.2 billion.

4.         Where did you get the idea to force employees to start paying taxes on their health care benefits?

BACKGROUND:

·        McCain’s health care plan would raise taxes on working families by thousands of dollars because, under his plan, you’d have to start paying income taxes on your employer-provided health care benefits.

·        According to FactCheck.org, McCain’s plan could “eliminate job-based insurance altogether.”

5.         Do you think George W. Bush has been a great president?

BACKGROUND:

·        They share the same failed economic plan: more for the rich while leaving middle class behind.

·        Both support continuing to spend $10 billion in Iraq while domestic needs go unmet.

·        Both support short-sighted energy plans backed by oil interests.

·        Both support privatizing Social Security.

Meanwhile, John Deeth reports at Iowa Independent that Republicans are trying to gin up a new scandal over this comment by Sebelius in Iowa City:

“Have any of you noticed that Barack Obama is part African-American?” Sebelius asked in response to a question about why the election is so close. “That may be a factor. All the code language, all that doesn’t show up in the polls. And that may be a factor for some people.”

Only an idiot would claim that there aren’t a certain number of voters who would typically vote for a Democrat but are reluctant to support Obama because of his race. I ran into a woman in my precinct yesterday who told me her father-in-law is one of those people. She and her husband are encouraging him to stay home (rather than vote for McCain) if he is really unable to vote for Obama.

I believe Obama will be able to turn out enough new voters to compensate for the racially intolerant.

But let’s not pretend that certain Republicans are not using code words and phrases to emphasize Obama’s race. I think billmon was mostly on target in this post about the attacks on “community organizers” at the Republican convention being code for “ghetto activists.”

This post shows Fox “News” broadcasting Obama speaking in a box right next to footage from the OJ Simpson trial.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently reassured Republicans that they should not worry if McCain trails in the polls, because some racists will lie to pollsters and then vote against Obama.

As of today, it's 50 days until Election Day. Here are some analysis' of where the race stands right now.

MSNBC's First Read Blog:

Obama: 233; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 78

Likely Obama: 172 EV (the usual suspects)

Lean Obama: 61 EV (IA, MN, NM, OR, PA, WA)

Toss Up: 78 EV (CO, MI. NV, NH, OH, VA, WI)

Lean McCain: 67 EV (FL, IN, MO, MT, NC)

Likely McCain: 160 EV (the usual suspects)

Slate Election Scorecard:

Obama: 240; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 68

Likely Obama: 161 EV (the usual suspects, plus IA)

Lean Obama: 79 EV (WA, OR, NM, MN, WI, PA, NJ)

Toss Up: 68 EV (NV, CO, MI, OH, VA, NH, US at large)

Lean McCain: 131 EV (AZ, MT, ND, SD, TX, MO, AR, IN, NC, SC, FL)

Likely McCain: 96 EV (the usual suspects)

The Des Moines Register features its latest Iowa poll in the Sunday edition, showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. The poll surveyed 801 Iowans by telephone, including 616 who said they would definitely vote in November.

If you click the link you can read the exact wording of questions asked, but it’s not clear whether the likely voter screen involved anything other than whether a person said he or she would definitely vote.

It’s the second poll in a row to show Obama above 50 percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead. A Time/CNN poll taken after McCain selected Sarah Palin but before Palin and McCain spoke at the Republican convention showed Obama beating McCain 55-40 in Iowa, leading in every region of the state and even among rural voters.

Other findings from the Des Moines Register’s new Iowa poll:

Just 18 percent of respondents think the country is headed in the right direction, while 74 percent say it is on the wrong track.

George Bush is at 25 percent approval, 71 percent disapproval. Repeat after me: most unpopular president in history!

Tom Harkin leads Christopher Reed in the U.S. Senate race by 53 percent to 34 percent.

Chuck Grassley’s approval rating is still high at 69 percent. Democrats’ only hope is to pick up so many Senate seats this year that Grassley decides to throw in the towel before the 2010 election. He hasn’t been getting along too well with Iowa Republicans lately, and it’s never fun serving in the minority in Congress.

I love that McCain and Sarah Palin will waste part of this Thursday campaigning at the Eastern Iowa Airport outside Cedar Rapids. Sorry, but Iowa is not really a swing state in this year’s presidential race.

Possibly the only person in Iowa who cares less about the Iowa/Iowa State game than I do is Mr. desmoinesdem.

But for those of you who do care, feel free to share your predictions and/or trash talk.

This is also an open thread for anything else on your mind this weekend.

Via Ben Smith at Politico, I learned that Planned Parenthood’s Action Fund has cut this great ad calling out John McCain for his own dishonest commercials:

This ad concisely answers McCain’s ludicrous charge related to the sex education program Barack Obama supports. But it does more in branding McCain as a politician who will say anything to get elected.

In other words, Planned Parenthood is not just answering an attack on Obama, it is also hitting McCain on the fake “straight talk” image he has cultivated for so many years.

No word yet on where these ads are airing, but I hope far and wide.

I’m not watching live, but apparently the Nation of Service forum, featuring John McCain and then Barack Obama, is on PBS and the cable networks now.

Daily Kos has a liveblog here.

Anyone feeling safer now that Sarah Palin told ABC’s Charlie Gibson that war with Russia may be necessary if Russia invades a country?

Josh Marshall captured this “awkward moment” when it’s obvious Palin has no idea what Gibson means by the “Bush doctrine.”

Count on the Republicans to cry “elitism” if Democrats suggest that the vice-presidential nominee should know something about foreign policy.

If you’ve been on the job market in the last decade or two, you may know how hard it is to find a job with good benefits.

A lesser-known fact of life in this country is that even if you think your employer provides great health care coverage, you could get shafted later. nyceve has written a book’s worth of diaries about “Murder by Spreadsheet,” when for-profit insurance companies find excuses to refuse to cover needed medical care.

Insurance companies are not always to blame, however. Corporations looking to cut costs sometimes yank promised health benefits from retirees who put in many years of work and in some cases gave up pay raises in exchange for better benefits packages.

The makers of John Deere machinery have provided the latest example of this travesty. In response, some 5,000 former employees of Deere & Co. filed a class action lawsuit this week

demanding that company officials reset the clock to 2007 and restore health benefits that court papers say were drastically cut back this year.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Des Moines, alleges Moline, Ill.-based Deere broke longtime promises to its employees when the company on Jan. 1 “eliminated, reduced and dramatically altered” benefits pledged under retiree health plans.

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Court papers say the company for more than 15 years promised lifetime health benefits to employees who vested in Deere & Co. pension plans, and Deere can’t now back out of that deal.

In July about 3,000 retired former Maytag employees learned that Whirlpool, which bought Maytag in 2005, is trying to reduce their health benefits as well.

The Des Moines Register reported today that officials from Iowa’s Senior Health Insurance Information Program have scheduled meetings in Newton on September 17 “to warn Maytag retirees about upcoming choices and deadlines in the wake of a decision by Whirlpool to reduce their health benefits.” Maytag retirees have filed a class-action suit in Michigan claiming that Whirlpool must honor Maytag’s contracts that promised “vested lifetime retiree health care benefits.” That lawsuit is pending, as is a separate case filed by Whirlpool, seeking to impose the benefit changes on Maytag retirees.

Speaking of our screwed-up health care system, today nyceve posted a wonderful diary contrasting a video of John McCain saying, “Like Most Americans, I go see my doctor fairly frequently” with footage of Joe Biden talking about health care on the stump. Click through, these videos are worth your time.

It’s no surprise that McCain is out of touch with the realities of health care in this country. After all, one of the authors of McCain’s health “reform” proposal thinks there are no uninsured Americans as long as sick people can go to the emergency room.  

It’s hard to keep up with the Republican sleaze this week.

Michigan Republicans are planning to use foreclosure lists to suppress the vote in African-American neighborhoods:

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

[…]

One expert questioned the legality of the tactic.

“You can’t challenge people without a factual basis for doing so,” said J. Gerald Hebert, a former voting rights litigator for the U.S. Justice Department who now runs the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington D.C.-based public-interest law firm. “I don’t think a foreclosure notice is sufficient basis for a challenge, because people often remain in their homes after foreclosure begins and sometimes are able to negotiate and refinance.”

As for the practice of challenging the right to vote of foreclosed property owners, Hebert called it, “mean-spirited.”

Republicans in Columbus, Ohio may be planning to use the same tactic.

Speaking of Ohio, Marc Ambinder reports that push-polling against Obama appears to have started there as well as in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Don’t imagine that it’s only state-level GOP operatives taking the low road. John McCain’s latest television commercials on education accuse Obama of wanting to teach kindergartners about sex before they learn to read. David Sirota correctly points out that the law in question (on age-appropriate comprehensive sex education) called for protecting small children against child molesters by teaching them about inappropriate touching. If anything I think kindergarten is a little late to start teaching children about “good” and “bad” touches. This knowledge makes kids safer from sex predators.

In other news of the week, Republican spinmeisters are trying to gin up a scandal over Obama’s use of the phrase “lipstick on a pig.” Their fake outrage is even more hypocritical than it appears at first glance.

Also, CBS forced the McCain campaign to take down a “misleading” web ad.

Feel free to post a comment about anything I’ve left out.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that Sarah “I put the plane on eBay” Palin charged Alaska taxpayers for her family’s personal travel.

In addition, Palin’s ethics adviser urged the governor to apologize for “overreaching” in her desire for revenge against the Alaska state trooper who used to be her brother-in-law.

Newsweek cites court documents showing that the judge in the divorce case

was disturbed by the alleged attacks by Palin and her family members on Wooten’s behavior and character. “Disparaging will not be tolerated-it is a form of child abuse,” the judge told a settlement hearing in October 2005, according to typed notes of the proceedings.

I can’t remember who said it first, but I absolutely agree that in light of “troopergate” we need to worry about how a potential Vice President or President Palin would use the FBI against her personal as well as her political enemies.

Meanwhile, a whistleblower who worked for Cindy McCain during the 1990s asserts that John McCain

used his Senate staff and resources to cover up Cindy’s drug use, and potentially to prevent the Drug Enforcement Agency from investigating his wife’s theft of illegal prescription drugs.

Snud has a lot more detail on those allegations here

Abuse of power to cover up personal wrongdoing? Sounds like George Bush to me.

SECOND UPDATE: Naughty, naughty. The Wall Street Journal scrubbed the end of an article pointing out that while McCain criticizes earmarks, Palin requested more earmarked dollars per capita than any other governor.

Sometimes it’s amazing how many lies and misleading statements Republicans can fit into one 30-second television commercial:

This statement from Barack Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, is right on:

“Despite being discredited over and over again by numerous news organizations, the McCain campaign continues to repeat the lie that Sarah Palin stopped the Bridge to Nowhere.  John McCain has voted with George Bush 90% of the time and he and Sarah Palin will continue Bush’s economic policies, his health care policy, his education policy, his energy policy, and his foreign policy.  McCain and Palin will say or do anything to make people believe that they will change something besides the person sitting in the Oval Office.  That’s the kind of politics people are tired of, and it’s anything but change,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

The Obama campaign has also released an extensive fact check debunking almost every claim this ad makes. You can read it here:

http://blogs.creativeloafing.c…

It shows that contrary to the impression the commercial gives viewers:

-Senator McCain supported almost the entire George Bush agenda

-McCain voted for plenty of earmarks

-Governor Palin was originally for the Bridge to Nowhere

-Palin has been very close to the oil industry

and much more.

Regrettably, Obama did not do enough this summer to brand McCain as Bush’s third term as well as a liar who will say anything to win. Better late than never, though.

UPDATE: Excellent rapid response from the Obama campaign:

Hits McCain on the Washington lobbyists running his campaign and on voting with Bush more than 90 percent of the time. Hits Palin on being for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it. Great closer:

“Politicians lying about their records–you don’t call that ‘maverick.’ You call it more of the same.”

Obama simply cannot allow McCain to brand himself as the reform candidate who will bring change to Washington. He would bring more of the same failed Bush policies and corruption.

Over the weekend numerous media reported that Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin did not plan to take questions from journalists before the election. Either those reports were inaccurate or John McCain’s campaign felt compelled to backpedal, because ABC’s Charlie Gibson will interview Palin later this week:

The McCain camp did not say why it chose Mr. Gibson, but it had selected him last week as the only major journalist to interview Mr. McCain himself during the Republican convention in St. Paul.

After his interview with Mr. McCain had aired, Mr. Gibson posted on his blog that he had “fretted” about how to approach the many personal issues that had come up about Ms. Palin and decided to ignore them.

“The major development in his campaign obviously is his surprise choice of Sarah Palin,” Mr. Gibson wrote. “It took some time in thinking about it, but I finally decided not to even bring up the issues with her family, for they are issues of family and should remain so. […]

“The relevant questions about Governor Palin, the questions that go to her suitability to serve as vice president, all relate to her experience, or lack thereof, and her policy positions as a mayor and governor in Alaska. Once I decided to restrict the Palin questions to those areas, the interview kind of formed itself,” Mr. Gibson wrote.

It’s not yet clear whether Palin will agree to a press conference, where she would have to face many reporters at the same time.

I have little sense of Gibson’s style as an interviewer, but I do think it’s right to focus on Palin’s inexperience and stands on the issues as opposed to her family matters.

Think Progress published a good summary of “What Conservatives Ignored” at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Click over for all the analysis and supporting links. Key excerpts:

THE ECONOMY: The American public views the struggling economy as the most important issue facing the country. But as AFP observed, “The economy may be the number one issue in the White House race, but the Republican National Convention has yet to dwell on the troubles of Americans trying to make ends meet.” On Wednesday, CNBC said its reporters were “darned to find much at all” about the economy in the convention speeches. In fact, housing was mentioned just once and the term “middle-class” was used only twice. […]

HEALTH CARE: At a town hall event last month, McCain declared, “There is a health care crisis in America. We would be, if it were not for the energy crisis, we’d be talking a lot more about health care issues.” But despite skyrocketing health care costs and millions of uninsured and underinsured Americans, nearly every prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention ignored this crisis. […]

GLOBAL WARMING: […] Republicans also ignored the obvious link between global warming and the increasing intensity of storms: the terms “global warming” and “climate change” were each mentioned just once. A new study published in the journal Nature this week found that “the strongest of hurricanes and typhoons have become even stronger over the past two and a half decades.” […] Despite McCain’s claims that he believes global warming is real, the GOP platform — which McCain has promised to run on — is loaded with caveats about the uncertainty of science and the need to ‘resist no-growth radicalism’ in taking on climate change.” […]

Speaking of what the Republicans didn’t talk about, watch this fantastic clip from a Joe Biden event yesterday. Partial transcript for those who don’t click over:

But, I’ll tell you, it’s not so much of what I heard in the Republican convention. When you heard John speak last night.  It’s not so much what I heard, when I heard part of what the Governor had to say, the vice presidential candidate.  It’s what I didn’t hear.

(Applause)

THE SILENCE – THE SILENCE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WAS DEAFENING.  IT WAS DEAFENING.  ON JOBS, ON HEALTH CARE, ON ENVIRONMENT, ON ALL THE THINGS THAT MATTER TO THE PEOPLE IN THE NEIGHBORHOODS I GREW UP IN.  DEAFENING!

(Standing Ovation)

Ladies and gentlemen, THEIR AMERICA IS NOT THE AMERICA I LIVE IN. THEY SEE SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAN I SEE.

Ladies and gentlemen, literally, those of you, I can’t swear to this because I didn’t see every bit of every speech. But I asked my staff to check. Do any of you recall either candidate on the Republican ticket utter the phrase, middle class?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did any of you hear them utter the phrase, health care and how we’re going to help?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them talk about aid to get kids to college?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them talk about aid to education?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them putting more cops on the street to make us safer?

Crowd: No!

Biden: I didn’t hear a thing, a thing, about any of the things that matter to the lives of the people of my hometown of Scranton….

Rick Davis, John’s campaign manager, said two days into the convention, he said “this election is not about issues.”  That’s what he said.  And everything I saw at the convention demonstrated that.

It was about how well placed — and boy she is good — how a left jab can be stuck pretty nice.  It’s about how Barack Obama is such a bad guy.

It’s about how in fact, how in fact, they got great quips.  Man, they’re like the kids you know when you went to school and you were very proud of the new belt or the shoes you had, and there was always one kid in the class who said, “oh, are they your brother’s?”

Crowd: Yeah.

Remember that kid?  That’s what this is reminding me of.  “Oh, I love your dress, was that your mother’s?”

You know what I’m talking about.

What do you talk about, when you have nothing to say?!

What do you talk about when you CANNOT EXPLAIN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS OF FAILURE?!

(Standing Ovation)

What do you talk about?!  What do you talk about?!

You talk about the other guy.

Speaking of McCain’s acceptance speech (transcript here), I didn’t think it was well-written. If there are any aspiring speechwriters out there, you want to avoid drafting passages like this:

I will keep taxes low and cut them where I can. My opponent will raise them. I will open new markets to our goods and services. My opponent will close them. I will cut government spending. He will increase it.

My tax cuts will create jobs. His tax increases will eliminate them. My health care plan will make it easier for more Americans to find and keep good health care insurance. His plan will force small businesses to cut jobs, reduce wages, and force families into a government run health care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.

The crowd kept interrupting with boos after McCain’s description of what Obama would do. It came across as very negative.

These contrasts should have been flipped around so that the crowd kept interrupting McCain with applause after he compared his opponent’s plans with his own ideas. You want television viewers to see the audience repeatedly cheering the nominee.

A whole lot of television viewers saw McCain: Nielsen estimates that he drew a slightly bigger television audience than Obama did when speaking at Invesco field in Denver. Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday was watched by almost as many people.

NCDem Amy brings you the video of Rachel Maddow daring to call Republican lying what it is.

Speaking of lying, a new ad from McCain and the Republican National Committee says Obama is the candidate who would bring you “more of the same.”

If you were wondering why McCain started talking in front of a green screen on Thursday night, it’s because he was standing in front the grass at the bottom of a huge photo. It turned out to be Walter Reed Middle School in California (presumably they had intended to use Walter Reed Medical Center, where wounded soldiers are treated, as a backdrop).

Anne Kilkenny, a Wasilla resident who knows Palin well, wrote this piece about her that has become a viral e-mail.

Here’s another piece about Palin by a longtime resident of Alaska.

I’m with this guy: when it comes to Palins, I’ll take Michael Palin of Monty Python. (No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!)

UPDATE: Reacting to McCain’s repeated promises to “fight” in his acceptance speech, Senator Barbara Boxer of California notes that she has seen McCain fight many times: against raising the minimum wage, against equal pay for equal work, against access to birth control …

Details to follow from the Obama campaign. It will be Biden’s first Iowa visit since the caucuses. Expect a very big crowd.

Here’s a good diary about a Biden town-hall meeting in Sarasota this week, with video. He still answers questions for an hour or more at his campaign stops.

Speaking of which, John McCain’s campaign has announced that vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin will not take questions from journalists before the election. No press conferences, no Sunday-morning talk shows. Will this force journalists to drop their questioning of Palin’s record in Alaska and familiarity with basic matters of domestic and foreign policy?

Palin won’t be in seclusion–she’ll be doing about 30 fundraisers in the next 60 days.

UPDATE: Enjoy this post by Al Rodgers about a Biden event on Friday. Click the link to watch a short video clip or read the transcript.

SECOND UPDATE: Here are the details about the Biden event:

Rally with Joe Biden

Paul R. Knapp Animal Learning Center

Iowa State Fairgrounds

East University Ave. and East 30th St.

Des Moines, IA 50317

Monday, September 8th

Doors Open: 2:15 p.m.

Program Time: 3:15 p.m.

RSVP

http://iowa.barackobama.com/bi…

The event is free and open to the public; tickets are not required but an RSVP is encouraged. Space is available on a first come, first served basis.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.

Watch this fantastic answer by Barack Obama when asked on Thursday why being a community organizer is relevant experience for the presidency:

Greg Sargent posted the video of the entire brief press conference here. I agree with Sargent on Obama’s response to Sarah Palin’s criticism of him:

Great line at the end: “I’ve been called worse on the basketball court. It’s not that big of a deal.”

Dismissive, contemptuous, and perpetually bemused by the new lows of buffoonery and pettiness that the GOP sinks to on a now-daily basis. Keep that tone going.

Obama is really good at staying cool and not rising to the bait. In contrast, John McCain is a hothead, and I expect that comparison to work in our favor as the campaign progresses.

I was less impressed by Obama spokesman Bill Burton’s response to McCain’s speech tonight. It sounds less natural, more like canned talking points.

As McCain was wrapping up his speech, Hillary Clinton released this statement:

“The two party conventions showcased vastly different directions for our country. Senator Obama and Senator Biden offered the new ideas and positive change America needs and deserves after eight years of failed Republican leadership. Senator McCain and Governor Palin did not.

“After listening to all of the speeches this week, I heard nothing that suggests the Republicans are ready to fix the economy for middle class families, provide quality affordable health care for all Americans, guarantee equal pay for equal work for women, restore our nation’s leadership in a complex world or tackle the myriad of challenges our country faces.

“So, to slightly amend my comments from Denver: NO WAY, NO HOW, NO McCAIN-PALIN.”

Great stuff, and I hear she will take this message to Florida on Monday.

By the way, Joe Biden has been campaigning in Florida this week, and here’s a good write-up of a town-hall meeting in Sarasota, with video.

I’ve been saying for months that Obama has no chance of beating McCain in Florida, but I am revising that opinion. Obama’s choice of Biden will serve him well among Jews and voters over 60, while Palin will alienate Jews and probably won’t help McCain with seniors.

Put Biden and Clinton to work in Florida, and Obama has an outside shot at this state with a solid GOTV effort. At the very least, McCain will have to work to hold this state.

After the jump I’ve posted a fundraising e-mail from Obama in response to the way “the Republicans mocked, dismissed, and actually laughed out loud at Americans who engage in community service and organizing.”

The schedule for the evening is here. They will show the Sarah Palin biographical video during prime time, after Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and before former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, the video about John McCain, and Cindy McCain’s introduction of her husband.

It won’t have the same impact as if they had shown it before Palin introduced herself to 37 million viewers. We owe Rudy Giuliani and the chanting crowd a big thank you for running late last night.

Palin’s speech seems to have fired up the Democratic base as well as the Republicans. Barack Obama is rumored have raised nearly $10 million in the past 24 hours.

Chatter away. I’ll be watching the repeat of the proceedings later tonight and will post updates then.

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo has the full text of McCain’s speech.

Also at TPM, Josh Marshall’s liveblog of McCain’s speech is hilarious.

Shamelessly, the producers of tonight’s events thought it was a good idea to show a “9/11 tribute video” with graphic footage. You can watch the video here if you have the stomach for it.

Also, McCain started speaking at exactly 9:11 pm central time.

Blogger plf515, who survived the World Trade Center attack, posted his outraged commentary here.

I’m not a big fan of Keith Olbermann, but this time he got it exactly right:

“If at this late date any television networt had of its own accord showed that much video tape and that much graphic video tape of 911, and I speak as somebody who lost a few friends there, it, we, would be rightly eviscerated at all quarters perhaps by the Republican party itself for exploiting the memories of the dead and perhaps even for trying to evoke that pain again. If you reacted to that video tape the way I did, I apologize. It is a subject of great pain for many of us still and was probably not appropriate to be shown.”

SECOND UPDATE: I saw most of McCain’s speech on the repeat. He never said “George Bush”–just one reference to “the president,” “Laura Bush,” and “the 41st president.” Will people buy the way he is running away from the Republican Party’s record of failure? I have no idea.

A few things toward the end struck me as odd. Here is the last part of his speech:

I’m not running for president because I think I’m blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need. My country saved me. My country saved me, and I cannot forget it. And I will fight for her for as long as I draw breath, so help me God.

If you find faults with our country, make it a better one. If you’re disappointed with the mistakes of government, join its ranks and work to correct them. Enlist in our Armed Forces. Become a teacher. Enter the ministry. Run for public office. Feed a hungry child. Teach an illiterate adult to read. Comfort the afflicted. Defend the rights of the oppressed. Our country will be the better, and you will be the happier. Because nothing brings greater happiness in life than to serve a cause greater than yourself.

I’m going to fight for my cause every day as your President. I’m going to fight to make sure every American has every reason to thank God, as I thank Him: that I’m an American, a proud citizen of the greatest country on earth, and with hard work, strong faith and a little courage, great things are always within our reach. Fight with me. Fight with me.

Fight for what’s right for our country.

Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.

Fight for our children’s future.

Fight for justice and opportunity for all.

Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.

Stand up for each other; for beautiful, blessed, bountiful America.

Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.

Thank you, and God Bless you.

When McCain started talking about being grateful to his country for “saving” him, I was taken aback, because I thought that might offend Christians who think only Jesus saves. But McCain got around to thanking God a minute later, so I don’t think that was a gaffe.

To my ear there was a bit of a sneer in his voice as he delivered the line about not running for president “because I think I’m blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need.” I also sensed a rebuke to Obama in McCain’s line about how “nothing brings greater happiness in life than to serve a cause greater than yourself.”

McCain spent a large part of this speech defining himself as a servant to his country. Although he nodded to Obama’s achievement at one point, it seems clear that he will continue to depict Obama as a celebrity whose campaign is all about himself.

But look what he said at the very end:

Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.

Sounds like McCain is worried about Republicans resigning themselves to Obama’s inevitable history-making victory. It was strange to hear him acknowledge that pessimism about his chances at what should have been the climax of his speech.

THIRD UPDATE: This part of the speech was drafted poorly:

I will keep taxes low and cut them where I can. My opponent will raise them. I will open new markets to our goods and services. My opponent will close them. I will cut government spending. He will increase it.

My tax cuts will create jobs. His tax increases will eliminate them. My health care plan will make it easier for more Americans to find and keep good health care insurance. His plan will force small businesses to cut jobs, reduce wages, and force families into a government run health care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.

The crowd kept interrupting with boos after McCain’s description of what Obama would do. It came across as very negative.

These contrasts should have been flipped around so that the crowd kept interrupting McCain with applause after he contrasted his opponent’s plans with his own ideas. You want television viewers to see the audience repeatedly cheering the nominee.

I really have no idea how Alaska Governor Sarah Palin went over last night with voters who are not already strongly committed Republicans. I will reserve judgment until we see the next round of polls from must-hold states for John McCain, such as Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

Huffington Post reported on the reaction from focus groups of married and unmarried supporters of Hillary Clinton. I recommend reading the whole article, but here’s an excerpt:

First, women in both groups were impressed with Palin’s speaking ability and poise. But they were hardly convinced that she was qualified to be vice president, or that she truly represented the “change” they were looking for, especially in light of what was deemed an overly harsh “sarcasm” pervading her address. […]

In the “married” group, when one attendee kicked off the discussion by saying “she’s a good speaker, and a crowd pleaser,” the rest of the room articulated their agreement. “I didn’t expect to be as impressed as I was,” said another respondent. But then another woman added: “Once she started mudslinging, I thought, it’s the same old crap as other politicians. McCain used her to get the women’s vote. And she’s using McCain.”

“Thank you,” another woman responded. “That really upset me; there was no need for that. It was snippy.”

The unmarried group also voiced similar objections to the harsh, partisan edge of Palin’s remarks. “I’m not impressed with her at all as a person,” one said, citing her “finger pointing” and general sarcasm after the group had generally agreed that she was a talented public speaker.

Natasha Chart, who grew up in a conservative, religious family, posted a fascinating commentary on last night’s proceedings at MyDD, complete with King James Bible quotations. She notes that

Jesus didn’t ask the faithful to give good speeches. He didn’t ask of them that they should be from small towns, or some certain geographic region. He asked that they do something real, something material, to lighten the loads of their fellow travelers in this life.

Marc Ambinder thinks Palin may have just made Barack Obama “yesterday’s news”:

Sarah Palin is, quite simply, the celebrity of September. Interest in her will be enormous. Just as Democrats painted on Barack Obama’s blank canvass in January and February of 2007, Republicans and independents will get the chance to fill in their view of Gov. Palin. She’s the new thing. The object of curiosity. The press and the larger media will obsess over her and her family and her life.

TruthMatters thinks the Republicans lost a huge opportunity when they cut the biographical video on Palin out of last night’s program:

First they lead into her with Romney and Rudy, basically putting the country on notice, We Are Republicans And We Mean Business.

They GOP is basically telling us now, that the culture wars are back and they mean it.

Then they go into the prime time hour, the thing millions of American’s are going to see, is nothing but Rudy and Palin non-stop attacking democrats and anyone who is NOT a Republican.

And Rudy really screwed it up, because he ran long and they didn’t play her video. Her Video was suppose to make America fall in love with her, anyone remember, Michelle’s, Hillary’s, Joes, and Obama’s from last week? They NEEDED that video tonight to introduce her, espeically if this was how she was going to come out. She gave no substance, nothing but attacks, she showed us she was a hard right Republican, and she means business.

Now her base loved it. she is getting rave reviews from the right. This from redstate.com says it all “Sarah Palin. An Amazing, Historic, Epic Win.” but here is the problem. In their sheer hubris is all I can say, they seem to think that they are still the majority in this country. What they are ignoring is they are turning off every non-republican in this country. Since the convention and Sarah’s introduction, Obama has taken the lead in independents and increased his Democratic numbers.

The GOP has seem to have forgotten that Sarah was suppose to reach out to independents and the frustrated Hillary supporters, because there aren’t enough GOP voters anymore their party numbers are down. but instead they are now stuck with the 2004 strategy of excite the base and get out to vote.

For a “real vetting roundup” on Palin, read this post by georgia10.

Kos notes that the Republican convention is drawing fewer television viewers than the GOP convention four years ago and a far smaller audience than the Democratic convention drew last week. CORRECTION: the latest ratings show Palin drew almost as large an audience last night as Obama did last Thursday.

I still think selecting Palin was a huge mistake for McCain, whose main talking point against Obama was that he lacked sufficient experience to lead.

Also, give me a break from the talking point about Palin having “more executive experience than Obama and Biden combined,” as if Obama and Biden’s in-depth knowledge and experience crafting federal policy is worth less than being a small-town mayor and serving half a term as governor.

Watch this great clip from last night’s Daily Show, which juxtaposes Karl Rove on Palin’s tremendous experience with what Rove said about Virginia Governor Tim Kaine a few weeks ago. Kaine has served as governor for longer than Palin, managing a state much larger than Alaska. Before that Kaine was lieutenant governor of Virginia, and before that he was mayor of Richmond, a much larger city than Wasilla, Alaska. Jon Stewart noted that “Karl Rove is bitterly divided on the experience issue.”

After the jump I have posted the text of a mass e-mail from Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe. He specifically takes Palin and Rudy Giuliani to task for mocking Obama’s experience as a community organizer. That was certainly one of the low points of Palin’s speech, in my opinion. At least George H.W. Bush pretended to value community activists (“1000 points of light”) twenty years ago.

UPDATE: For the full text of Palin’s speech, click here.

Small-town native Mike Lux had this reaction:

while I appreciated Sarah Palin’s tribute to small-town values at one point in her speech, the values she exhibited in the rest of the speech were not the ones I recognized from the small towns I know. […]

The Sarah Palin I saw last night had a mean streak a mile wide. If me or my brothers and sisters would have been as sarcastic and demeaning to someone as Sarah Palin was last night, my mom would have sent us to our room. I know that Palin was just trying to be funny when she compared herself to a pit bull, but she was just about as nasty as one, and in the dog-loving families I know from small-town America, people generally prefer dogs that will play well with kids and neighbors. And the community organizers that Palin made so much fun of [are] the folks who organized the potluck suppers at church and the Lions Club charities, the ones who really made those small towns go.

Lux should understand that when Palin made fun of community organizers, she wasn’t talking about people who run church potlucks in small towns. I tend to agree with billmon:

Used the way the GOP speakers used the words tonight (i.e. with a sneer), community = ghetto and organizer = activist.

It essentially was a coded way of pointing out Obama’s work in, with and for the black community (see? even I’m doing it) on the South Side of Chicago. Also the fact that his work involved helping low-income people stand up for their legal rights, as opposed to a GOP-sanctioned “real” job like business owner or career military officer (or moose hunter.) They were trying to put Obama back on the same level as Jesse Jackson — i.e., the black protest candidate — and mocking him for it.

I won’t be watching in prime time, but I plan to watch the repeat of Sarah Palin’s speech on C-SPAN later. I expect her to bring the house down in St. Paul. Those delegates are her kind of Republican.

Chatter away about what you’ve seen and heard today. I will update later.

UPDATE: I hope John McCain runs his new Obama/Palin comparison ad in every swing state:

MSNBC’s First Read has already fact-checked this ad:

It’s important to note that there are a few misleading assertions in the ad. For one, the “Journal” that’s cited is the conservative and partisan Wall Street Journal editorial page. Two, to call Obama the Senate’s most liberal senator is dubious. (The charge comes from the National Journal ranking Obama as having the most liberal Senate voting record of 2007, but he was nowhere near the top in 2005 and 2006; it’s also worth noting that Obama missed many Senate votes in 2007, so that ranking is a bit skewed.) And three, the charge that Obama “gave big oil billions in subsidies and giveaways” is misleading. (According to nonpartisan fact-checkers, the 2005 energy bill the McCain camp is referring to actual resulted in a net tax INCREASE on oil companies.)

Speaking of fact checks, First Read notes that Mike Huckabee was wrong to assert in his RNC speech that Sarah Palin received more votes running for mayor of Wasilla than Joe Biden received running for president. First Read says nearly 80,000 Americans voted for Biden for president.

I suspect that estimate is low. Probably somewhere between 5 and 10 percent of Iowa Democrats stood up for Biden at their precinct caucuses, although he only ended up with 1 percent of the delegates because of the 15 percent viability threshold. Also, Biden was not on the ballot in Michigan, but presumably some of those “uncommitted” voters preferred him.

The Democratic National Committee launched a fun website called JustMoreoftheSame.com. Check it out.

SECOND UPDATE: Democratic bloggers seem divided on whether Palin gave a great speech (to the audience she was trying to reach) or whether she was boring.

Josh Marshall had this to say about Rudy:

You’ll notice that Rudy Giuliani apparently ran too long and they had to drop the Palin mini-movie that was supposed to introduce her speech. Normally people get fired for goofs like that. They didn’t want Rudy’s blood and iron speech the day after Gustav so they bumped it until tonight. Big mistake. He positively dripped with a kind of curdled anger, the origin of which is difficult to grasp. But he actually seemed to get angrier and angrier as the speech progressed — off chopping his hands around, baring his teeth. I know the people in the hall loved it. But I think a lot of people will see it as whacked. Rancid. Curdled. Palin’s speech ended up being much more partisan than I expected. But that was added to by the fact that she had to start her speech while the auditorium was still awash in the teeth-gnashing froth ginned up by Rudy’s speech.

THIRD UPDATE: I caught most of the repeat of Rudy’s speech. I cannot imagine that helped McCain with anyone but the most hard-core Republicans. Talk about mean-spirited. All those loud “boos” from the audience made the crowd seem mean as well. And it was surreal to see Hizzoner from New York make fun of Obama for being too cosmopolitan. I agree with RF–if millions of Americans caught that speech while tuning in to see Palin, Obama will benefit.

Also, it was bizarre to have the camera cutting to Cindy McCain holding baby Trig during Rudy’s speech. Most young infants don’t like being passed around and held by total strangers.

FOURTH UPDATE: Mr. desmoinesdem and I watched the repeat of Palin. She did a lot better than Rudy, obviously. I’m sure she generated a lot of enthusiasm among the GOP base. We have no idea how that speech sounded to a typical undecided voter. Some of her culture war language and criticism of Obama sounded a little petty to me, but I’m obviously not the target audience. She lied again about opposing the Bridge to Nowhere, but will she get called on that? The visuals at the end of her holding baby Trig with the rest of her family on stage were great.

I think Obama and Biden should ignore her and focus their fire on McCain.

Ben Smith reported yesterday at Politico that Barack Obama’s campaign is running radio ads about John McCain’s stand on abortion. His readers reported hearing the ads in at least seven states, including Iowa.

I heard this ad in the car yesterday on two Des Moines-area radio stations: the oldies station KIOA, and once on LITE 104.1. LITE heavily skews toward female listeners. I don’t know about the gender breakdown of KIOA listeners, but that station generally appeals to an older audience, many of whom would remember when abortion was illegal.

Because I was driving, I was unable to take notes on the ad. Audio does not seem to be available at the Obama campaign website.

This morning I was heard a longer version of the same ad on both the LITE station and the oldies station. I was able to take notes, but this is not a verbatim transcript.

UPDATE: Edited out my rough transcript and replaced with the script Smith published at Politico:

   OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.

   VAL BARON: As a nurse practitioner with Planned Parenthood, I know abortion is one of the most difficult decisions a woman will ever make. I’m Val Baron. Let me tell you: If Roe v Wade is overturned, the lives and health of women will be put at risk.  That’s why this election is so important.  John McCain’s out of touch with women today. McCain wants to take away our right to choose. That’s what women need to understand. That’s how high the stakes are.

   ANNCR: As president, John McCain will make abortion illegal.  McCain says quote, “I do not support Roe v. Wade. It should be overturned.” And listen to McCain’s answer on Meet the Press:

       RUSSERT: “A constitutional amendment to ban all abortions. You’re for that?”

       McCAIN: “Yes, sir.”

   VAL BARON: We can’t let John McCain take away our right to choose. We can’t let him take us back.

   ANNCR: Paid for by Obama for America.

The short version of the radio ad does not have the Planned Parenthood nurse practitioner speaking at the beginning. Otherwise, it is identical, beginning where the female voice-over picks up.

A few points worth noting about this ad:

It does not mention Sarah Palin or the fact that McCain picked an anti-choice running mate. The entire focus is on McCain’s record on abortion.

Including the undated audio clip with Russert and McCain is effective, in my opinion. That is more memorable than anything a voice-over could say about McCain’s position on abortion.

I prefer the long version of the ad, because I think it’s powerful to have a nurse say abortion is a difficult decision for women. The anti-choice forces try to make it sound as if pro-choice people celebrate or even encourage “abortion on demand.” However, most Americans understand that whatever their own views about the issue, abortion is not something women take lightly. Complicated personal circumstances lead to the decision.

These ads mark a major shift in strategy for the Obama campaign. Up to now, the campaign has been emphasizing economic issues rather than abortion at its women’s outreach events. Click the link to read about the Obama women’s event I attended a few weeks ago, during which Roe v Wade was only mentioned in passing.

Although Democratic candidates have not often made abortion the focus of paid advertising, I think this is a smart ad. Way too many women wrongly believe McCain is pro-choice. Even my stepmother, who is well-informed politically, thought that.

Now that McCain has played his hand and picked a running mate who appeals to evangelicals seeking to overturn Roe v. Wade, it’s the right time to educate pro-choice women about McCain’s true record on the issue.

The potential downside is that these ads will increase McCain’s support among anti-choice voters. Although McCain scores zero on Progressive Punch’s rankings on abortion as well as a perfectly anti-choice zero on Planned Parenthood’s scorecard, many evangelical conservatives believe McCain does not have a pro-life voting record.

Incredibly, some figures on the Christian right believe McCain has a pro-abortion voting record (see here for more details on that perspective).

This ad makes crystal clear that McCain would make abortion illegal if elected president.

On the other hand, McCain has presumably already energized anti-choice voters by selecting Palin for vice-president. Also, I have yet to see any poll showing that a majority of Americans would like to see abortion criminalized.

Please put up a comment if you have heard these ads, with details about when and what kind of radio station aired them.

Post your thoughts about today’s events. The front page of Barack Obama’s website has a link you can click to find ways to help Hurricane Gustav victims.

John McCain has seized the opportunity to distance himself from George Bush and Dick Cheney. They had been scheduled to address the GOP convention on Monday night, but those speeches have been canceled. Instead, Laura Bush and Cindy McCain will speak briefly on how Americans can help hurricane victims.

Meanwhile, McCain is touring the Gulf cost and talking about turning the Republican convention into a service event. Fits nicely with his slogan about “putting country first,” except when you realize that his visit is likely to distract the local officials trying to manage evacuation and disaster relief efforts.

He obviously doesn’t want people to remember that the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall in 2005, Bush was celebrating McCain’s birthday in Arizona.

This diary by Muzikal203 compares how McCain and Obama have reacted to Gustav and both senators’ records on matters related to Hurricane Katrina.

UPDATE: I’ve been reading some disturbing posts about police tactics in St. Paul:

A concise roundup by mcjoan is here.

Glenn Greenwald has a lot more detail, including footage of Amy Goodman, host of the Democracy Now! radio program, being arrested while covering the protests at the RNC. Greenwald observed on Monday:

Beginning last night, St. Paul was the most militarized I have ever seen an American city be, even more so than Manhattan in the week of 9/11 — with troops of federal, state and local law enforcement agents marching around with riot gear, machine guns, and tear gas cannisters, shouting military chants and marching in military formations. Humvees and law enforcement officers with rifles were posted on various buildings and balconies. Numerous protesters and observers were tear gassed and injured.

Lindsay Beyerstein wrote this piece at Firedoglake.

Open Left has published several pieces on this, including this post with photos by Matt Stoller.

It is depressing to see such an overreaction to political dissent.

Many conservative pundits were not impressed by John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, since her glaring lack of experience undercuts McCain’s main message against Barack Obama.

On the plus side for McCain, just about everyone agreed that putting an anti-abortion mother-of-five on the ticket would delight the evangelical Christians who were so crucial to George Bush’s re-election.

Although the “pro-family” interest groups applauded McCain’s choice, I had a hunch that Palin wouldn’t be unanimously embraced by the evangelical rank and file.

I lurk and occasionally comment at a few “mommy blogs” written by religious conservatives. Checking in on some popular sites in the evangelical Christian blogosphere over the weekend, I did find some commentaries that praised Palin for her views and for continuing a pregnancy while carrying a child with Down syndrome.

However, if you join me after the jump, you’ll see that plenty of evangelicals are far from “fired up and ready to go” for this Republican ticket.  

Nielsen has estimated that more than 38 million Americans watched Barack Obama’s acceptance speech on Thursday night, and that does not include the 3.5 million people that (according to PBS) watched the event on public television.

I was shocked to learn that

more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final “American Idol” or the Academy Awards this year.

Every night of the Democratic convention, viewership was way up compared to 2004. Hillary Clinton’s speech on Tuesday drew at least 26 million viewers.

Talk about a tough act to follow. John McCain is scheduled to accept the Republican nomination next Thursday evening, when two other networks will be showing NFL games on the first night of the professional football season.

If today is John McCain’s birthday, why did he give us a present?

I strongly disagree with the idea that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is a game-changer for the Republicans.

Hillary Clinton gave a strong endorsement of Barack Obama on Tuesday and will be out campaigning for him this fall. I’m supposed to believe that women who preferred Hillary in the Democratic primaries will flock to McCain, with his horrible record on women’s issues, because a conservative woman is his running mate?

I get the rationale for picking Palin, as laid out here by Chris Bowers and in a different way by Iowa blogger Douglas Burns.

But McCain is staking his campaign on persuading Americans that Obama is “not ready to lead.” I cannot see how it helps McCain to choose a running mate who is younger and less experienced than Obama. Palin has served less than two years as governor and before that was mayor of a town with fewer than 10,000 residents.

At 72 years old, McCain would be the oldest president ever elected. He is also a cancer survivor. Can the Republicans make the case that Palin is ready to lead this country should the need arise?

Supposedly the GOP base will be thrilled to see the anti-choice Palin on the ticket. I read some “mommy blogs” written by religious conservatives and will be checking them in the next few days to see how they react to this pick. (These bloggers tended to favor either Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul.)

I assume they will be relieved that McCain did not choose the detested Mitt Romney. However, I am not convinced these rank and file members of the religious right will celebrate Palin’s selection. They believe women should be homemakers who homeschool their children, and they think feminism and the trend toward working outside the home is undermining “Biblical womanhood.”

No matter how enthusiastically the Republican pundits welcome Palin, I suspect that many social conservatives will feel she should be at home, taking care of her special-needs infant and schooling her older children.

The business wing of the Republican base tended to support Romney in the primaries. Mitt himself is reportedly furious at the way McCain strung him along. Look for the knives to come out if anything goes wrong with Palin–for instance, if she gets tainted by the trial of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens.

I’m skeptical that Palin will neutralize Joe Biden (supposedly because he can’t afford to be seen as a bully). Biden has two jobs: to alleviate concerns about Obama’s lack of experience, and to be an attack dog. The first task will be easier with Palin as his counterpart. As for the second, Biden can ignore Palin most of the time and focus his fire on McCain during the only vice-presidential debate.

Choosing Palin looks like a Hail Mary pass from a candidate who knows he will lose unless he shakes things up in a big way. I’m feeling much more optimistic about Obama’s chances than I did five days ago.

Supposedly MSNBC has confirmed that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will not be John McCain’s running mate.

Several bloggers have noted that at least one plane was chartered from Alaska to Ohio, which would suggested he is going with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

That seems like a desperate choice to me. McCain is over 70 and a cancer survivor whose main argument against Obama is that he is not “ready to lead.” So then he chooses someone who not only hasn’t finished a single term as governor, but has already become mired in an abuse-of-power scandal? (She used powers of her office to try to get a state trooper fired because of he and Palin’s sister were going through a bitter divorce.)

Great move!

The arguments for Palin are

1) she’s a woman

2) she reinforces McCain’s arguments on tax cuts and oil drilling, and

3) perhaps Joe Biden would have to go easy on her or else look like a bully.

But 1) I am skeptical that picking a woman will significantly cut into the gender gap working in Obama’s favor so far. I guess we’ll know more when we have more polls taken after Hillary Clinton’s convention speech, which more than 20 million Americans watched.

2) Alaska cut taxes because the state receives a huge amount of money from the federal government compared to what they put in the federal coffers. You can’t run national fiscal policy the same way.

3) Biden can ignore Palin most of the time. His job is to be an attack dog on McCain.

If McCain wanted a woman, he should have gone with Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. She has experience in federal government. Even those some advocates on the religious right don’t think she is strong enough on the abortion issue, she does have an anti-choice voting record.

If it is Palin, props to Douglas Burns, who called that a long time ago.

Rumor has it that John McCain will officially announce his running mate tomorrow in Ohio. The Republicans will likely leak the news this evening so that Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at Mile High Stadium’s Invesco Field won’t dominate all the media commentary.

Who’s it gonna be?

I still think “Biden crimps McCain’s VP choice.”

My best guess is that McCain will pick Mitt Romney. The downside is that the ticket can be ridiculed as “Rich and Richer,” but the upside is that Romney is seasoned enough to go head-to-head with Biden in a debate. I can’t say the same for other possible choices such as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal or Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Also, I think I saw one poll suggesting Romney would help McCain in Florida, where recent polls show Obama and McCain within the margin of error.

Some people in the McCain campaign are supposedly pushing for Joe Lieberman to be the running mate. Although he still caucuses with Senate Democrats, he has been campaigning for McCain and using Republican talking points against Obama.

I can’t imagine McCain would dare to pick Lieberman. The beltway media would love the bipartisan-looking ticket, but the Republican base would go ballistic if McCain picked someone pro-choice. Although I don’t like Lieberman, his voting record is solidly Democratic.

The religious right doesn’t even want former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge on the ticket, because he is pro-choice. At least Ridge is a lifelong Republican.

Open Left user leshrac55 pointed me toward this Huffington Post article about how Karl Rove has asked Lieberman to withdraw his name as a possible running mate, but Lieberman declined to do so.

(UPDATE: More rumors that McCain  really wants to pick Lieberman.)

I’ve seen no sign that McCain has ever considered Mike Huckabee for VP, but after watching Huckabee on The Colbert Report last night, I’m more convinced than ever that we haven’t heard the last from him. He’ll be running for president in 2012 or 2016 for sure. I disagree with many of his views, but I give Huckabee a lot of credit for praising Michelle Obama’s speech and pointing out the absurdity of conservative pundit spin about Hillary Clinton’s speech.

Also, I don’t recall hearing any Republican besides Huckabee express pride that this country has nominated a black man for president. On Colbert’s show, he said that while he won’t vote for Obama and wouldn’t like to see him become president, he remembers growing up with racism in the deep South, and he’s glad Obama’s race didn’t prevent him from winning the nomination.

I have heard some speculation that McCain will pick a woman, most likely Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison now that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is mired in scandal.

What do you think?

David Yepsen wrote a piece in the Des Moines Register warning that it would be perilous for the presidential candidates to ignore rural America at their parties’ nominating conventions:

I’m not talking about pandering here.  Nor am I talking about just the “farm” vote.  I’m talking about the thousands of Americans who live on the countryside and in small towns.  Some are farmers.  Most aren’t.

They face many of the same problems other Americans face – jobs, health care, senior issues and drug abuse.  They are patriotic Americans – many military people come out of these areas – yet because they live in the hinterlands they often feel ignored.

Lots of Americans feel that way these days but that’s especially true in rural parts of the country, many of which are losing population and vitality.

It would be politically smart for each presidential candidate and party speakers to specifically address the concerns of rural Americans in their convention addresses.  Conventions aren’t the place for “farm speeches” or big policy addresses.  But they are the place where messages and themes can be stressed.   Both parties should reach out to rural voters.

Why? Look at the battleground states.  Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.  All are states with sizeable rural populations.  Yes, some have urban areas in them but the rural vote in each could prove pivotal in tipping their electoral votes.

I agree with Yepsen that rural and small-town voters are a critical swing bloc, and that was one reason I  thought John Edwards would have been a strong general election candidate. I recommend ManfromMiddletown’s piece explaining why “rural voters are the key to the kingdom.”

That said, it strikes me as odd to look to convention speeches for proof of whether the presidential candidates are ignoring rural America.

Let’s examine what Barack Obama and John McCain are doing to reach Americans who do not live in major metropolitan areas.

There is no plan for rural America on the issues page of John McCain’s website. There is only a page labeled “agricultural policies,” which contains nine paragraphs about farming, trade and food policies.

Obama’s website includes a comprehensive Plan to Support Rural Communities. It addresses not only agricultural policies but also economic opportunities, small business development, environmental protection, renewable energy, communications and transportation infrastructure, attracting teachers and health care providers to rural areas, and dealing with the methamphetamine crisis.

But anyone can slap a plan on a website, right? What are the candidates doing to reach out to those small-town voters who feel ignored?

Let’s look at each of the battleground states Yepsen mentions in his column.

Obama had about 40 field offices before the Iowa caucuses and has established 30 offices in Iowa for the general election. His campaign has also organized canvassing in dozens of Iowa towns this summer (see here and here). In August, surrogates for Obama are holding

numerous “rural roundtables” across Iowa to focus on issues affecting small-town and rural residents.

John McCain has six field offices in Iowa, none of them in small towns. I haven’t heard of a lot of campaign activity on his behalf in small towns either.

Obama has already opened 31 field offices in Missouri, which isn’t even one of his campaign’s top red state targets. McCain has six campaign offices in that state.

Let’s turn to Ohio, a state McCain must hold if he is to have any chance of winning 270 electoral votes. McCain has nine campaign offices in Ohio (although there’s no phone or e-mail contact information for these offices on the McCain Ohio website). Obama will have 56 offices supporting his field operation in Ohio, and 44 of those offices are already open.

I don’t consider Minnesota much of a battleground state in light of recent polling. But since Yepsen mentioned it, and McCain may select Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, where do the candidates stand? Obama has 11 field offices in Minnesota, while McCain has seven.

It’s more lopsided in Wisconsin: Obama has 31 field offices, while McCain has six.

Obama built a large campaign organization in Pennsylvania leading up to that state’s primary and has opened 18 field offices there for the general election. The Pennsylvania page of McCain’s website lists a “Pennsylvania & Ohio Regional Office” in Columbus, Ohio and just one local office in Harrisburg. Looks like McCain hardly plans any outreach in that state.

I could go on about Obama’s 35 field offices in Virginia, 22 offices in North Carolina, 26 offices in Indiana and four offices in North Dakota, one of the most rural states.

But you get my point. Not only does Obama have a plan for rural America, he has a campaign presence in dozens of small towns where McCain does not. His staff and volunteers are making contact with thousands of voters who will only hear from McCain through their television sets.

I don’t know how much Obama plans to speak about rural issues on Thursday night, but he certainly can’t be accused of ignoring the concerns of voters outside cities and suburbs.

If you are planning to volunteer for Obama in a small town, take some time to become familiar with the Plan to Support Rural Communities. AlanF has good advice for canvassers in this diary, and Pete Mohanty lays out the reasons that canvassing is an effective campaign tool in this research paper.  

I am not a pollster or a statistician, but I have been thinking about some factors that may cause problems with the polling of this year’s presidential election. I welcome input from anyone with expertise in this area.

1. Cell-phone only voters.

I gather from this piece in the New York Times caucus blog that several prominent pollsters now routinely include cellphone samples in their surveys in light of the growing number of Americans who use only or mostly cell-phones.

I also know that a Pew Research Center survey taken in July suggested that Americans who use cell-phones are not that different politically from the population at large. To be more precise, people who use cell-phones most of the time are very much like the electorate at large, while people who exclusively use cell-phones are a bit different, but are also less likely to vote:

The cell-only and cell-mostly respondents in the Pew poll are different demographically from others. Compared with all respondents reached on a landline, both groups are significantly younger, more likely to be male, and less likely to be white. But the cell-only and cell-mostly also are different from one another on many characteristics. Compared with the cell-only, the cell-mostly group is more affluent, better educated, and more likely to be married, to have children, and to own a home.

We know from many years of polling that married people, people with children and home-owners are all groups more likely to vote Republican than the population at large. The Pew study also found that

In the current poll, cell-only respondents are significantly more likely than either the landline respondents or the cell-mostly respondents to support Barack Obama and Democratic candidates for Congress this fall. They also are substantially less likely to be registered to vote and – among registered voters – somewhat less likely to say they are absolutely certain they will vote. Despite their demographic differences with the landline respondents, the cell-mostly group is not significantly different from the landline respondents politically.

Yet as Pew has found in the past, when data from landline and cell phone samples are combined and weighted to match the U.S. population on key demographic measures, the results are similar to those from the landline survey alone.

I get that the phenomenon of cell-phone-only users is probably not introducing large errors in poll findings.

My question is, does the proportion of cell-phone only Americans differ substantially from state to state, or is it a fairly uniform phenomenon across the country? To put it another way, are certain regions of the country, or states with a higher percentage of urban residents, more likely to have larger than average numbers of people who use cell-phones exclusively?

If any swing states have a particularly large number of cell-phone only residents, that would be interesting to know. It could affect the accuracy of polling in that state (depending on the methodology of the polling firm and whether it includes cell-phone samples).

2. Weekend samples for tracking polls.

I was unable to find the archive of Rasmussen’s 2004 presidential tracking poll results, but my memory is that there was a clear pattern whereby Kerry did a little better in the samples taken on weekdays, and Bush gained ground in the samples taken on weekends.

That created the appearance of small movement toward and away from each candidate, with the pattern repeating almost every week in the late summer and fall. I remember reading some speculation that Bush was consistently doing better on the weekends because Democratic-leaning demographic groups are more likely not to be at home on Fridays and Saturdays.

I would like to know whether that is true, and if so whether the major tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) are doing anything to account for this problem.

When we see shifts in tracking polls, we assume voters are reacting to the news of the last few days, but perhaps this is just an illusion created by changes in the pool of people who answer the phone on certain days of the week.

3. Weighting for party ID, race or other factors.

What is considered the best practice in terms of weighting poll results if the sample differs from the demographics of those who voted in the 2004 presidential election?

A Survey USA Virginia poll recently found McCain leading Obama by 48 percent to 47 percent. Commenting on the finding, fladem pointed out that the poll

had 19% of the electorate made up of African Americans.  In 2004 it was 21%.  I have got to believe that African American participation will be higher than 2004.  

I share fladem’s belief, not only because Obama is black, but also because Obama has at least 35 field offices in Virginia, a state Kerry wrote off.

(UPDATE: fladem tells me that there is some evidence that 2004 exit polls overstated the share of the black vote in Virginia.)

We know that registering new voters in groups likely to favor Obama is a crucial part of his campaign strategy. Speaking to David Broder, campaign manager David Plouffe

said that “turnout is the big variable,” and the campaign is devoting an unusually large budget to register scads of new voters and bring them to the polls. “That’s how we win the Floridas and Ohios,” he said, mentioning two states that went narrowly for George W. Bush. “And that’s how we get competitive in the Indianas and Virginias,” two of six or seven states that long have been Republican — but are targets this year.

“That’s why I pay more attention to the registration figures than to the polls I see at this time of year,” Plouffe said. “The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them.”

Should pollsters adjust state poll findings to reflect the Obama campaign’s massive ground game and voter registration drives? How would they do that?

If a polling firm routinely weights for race, should the pollsters assume that the racial breakdown of the electorate will be roughly the same in a given state as it was in 2004? If not, what should they assume?

I have a similar question with respect to party ID. We’ve seen in state after state that the Democratic Party has gained significant ground on the Republican Party in terms of voter registration. In Iowa, there were about 8,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the summer of 2004, but as of June 2008, there were more than 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans. That’s a huge shift in a state where about 1.5 people voted in November 2004.

Are pollsters weighting for party ID, and if so, are they accounting for the big gains in Democratic voter registration since the 2004 or 2006 elections?

4. The disparity in the two campaigns’ ground games.

I know that different pollsters use different screens to separate likely voters from the rest of the sample. One indicator sometimes used is whether the respondent voted in the last presidential election.

But the Obama campaign turned out incredible numbers of first-time voters during the Democratic caucuses and primaries. I laughed at the Des Moines Register’s final pre-caucus poll projecting that 60 percent of caucus-goers would be first-timers, but that turned out to be almost exactly right.

For the general election, the Obama camapign is building a field operation on a scale never seen before.

To further complicate matters, the Obama field operation is enormous in many states where Democrats have not competed in recent presidential races. I mentioned the 35 field offices in Virginia already. Soon there will be 22 field offices open in North Carolina. There are at least 26 Obama offices up and running in Indiana. Even North Dakota has four Obama field offices. Al Gore and John Kerry bypassed all of those states.

Obama’s ground game is going to be much bigger than Kerry’s ground game was even in the swing states Kerry targeted. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to assume that the increased turnout of groups that skew toward Obama (e.g. blacks, voters under 30) will affect the demographic composition of the electorate more in states where Democrats had nothing going in 2004.

Should pollsters do anything to account for this factor? Could they take this into account even if they wanted to?

I know that some of my questions are unanswerable, but I appreciate any insight readers can provide.

(SECOND UPDATE: Thanks to the reader who wrote me to point out that the factors I mention, while not necessarily reflected in polling, may be reflected in online prediction markets that currently show Obama with a 20 percent greater chance of winning the election than McCain.)

The Democratic National Convention is above all about building support for the Obama-Biden ticket. However, I would like to see some progress toward making a case against John McCain this week as well.

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing on the liberal blogs about Obama’s diminishing lead over McCain this summer. Nate Silver/poblano no longer sees Obama as a clear favorite to win the electoral college, while Chris Bowers still sees Obama as a slight favorite, but in a much weaker position than last month. The McCain campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on negative advertising this summer, and it does seem to have brought Obama’s numbers down.

Who on the Democratic side is to blame? Some people think Obama’s a brilliant candidate suffering from an incompetent press shop. Slinkerwink is sick and tired of “mealy-mouthed” statements in passive voice from the Obama campaign. But it seems clear to me that Obama sets the tone for his own press shop. If he wanted them to go for the jugular, they would be doing it.

For most of this summer, the Obama campaign has been running a lot of positive television ads nationwide, while running targeted, state-specific negative ads against McCain.

For instance, here is an ad tying McCain to Ralph Reed and Jack Abramoff. It seems like inside baseball until you learn that it’s running only in Atlanta. Two years ago, Reed lost the Republican primary for lieutenant governor in Georgia because of his ties to Abramoff:

This ad started running in Ohio in mid-August, linking McCain to a merger that may cost thousands of jobs:

Obama has also run a tv ad in Nevada about McCain’s support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site.

There’s nothing wrong with these ads or making a state-specific case against McCain. However, the Obama campaign has failed to create any broad narrative against McCain comparable to McCain’s narrative against Obama (shallow celebrity candidate who’s not ready to lead).

Things may be changing. Last Thursday the Obama team moved quickly to capitalize on McCain’s inability to state how many houses he owns. Within hours, they had this ad up on national cable television. On Friday, they hit McCain again on the same theme with a second ad portraying him as a “country-club” Republican who can’t even remember how many houses he owns:

These ads are a good start, but we won’t be able to milk the house gaffe forever. We need to use other issues and statements to build on key narratives against McCain: he’s out of touch, he offers the same failed policies as George Bush, he’s a hothead we can’t trust with his finger on the button, he’ll say anything to get elected.

If we are lucky, McCain’s future comments or vice-presidential selection will reinforce one or more of these narratives against him. Two years ago, Virginia Senator George Allen fueled further coverage of himself as racially insensitive when, two weeks after calling a dark-skinned activist “macaca,” he lied about whether he had ever used a racial epithet to refer to black people.

However, the Obama campaign can’t count on McCain doing their work for them. The Democratic nominee doesn’t have to deliver this message himself, but I want surrogates from Joe Biden on down to stay on point.

Another strategy is to use ordinary people to portray McCain as out of touch. This ad that ran in Indiana earlier this month is a good start. It contrast McCain’s statements about the economy being strong with comments from average folks in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky about tough economic times.

As I watch the proceedings in Denver from afar, one thing I’ll be looking for is a sign that the Obama campaign is building an effective case against McCain.

UPDATE: Just saw over at MyDD that the Obama campaign is launching this new national ad today. It makes fun of McCain for not knowing much about the economy and “singing the same tune” as Bush:

Not sure whether the humor works in this ad–what do you think?

I wouldn’t say my four-year-old son was following the presidential race closely last year, but he was paying enough attention to understand that his parents were voting for John Edwards. Having been in the car a few times when I delivered yard signs, he also understood that an Edwards sign in front of someone’s house meant that person was also voting for Edwards.

In March of this year, my son (by then five years old) asked me whether we were still voting for John Edwards. I explained that not enough people had voted for Edwards, so he couldn’t be the president. We would vote for someone else, probably Barack Obama. He found that a little confusing, but over time it clicked with him that we were supporting Obama for president.

This evening we had a baby-sitter over for a couple of hours. While she was here, I was getting the kids a snack, and my older son asked her who she was voting for. She said, “McCain.”

He followed up with, “But who are you voting for for president?” She said, “McCain.”

Pause. He turns to me: “Mommy, are we voting for Obama?”

“Yes, we’re voting for Obama, but [baby-sitter] is voting for McCain.”

“Oh.” And he went back to eating pretzels.

Holy cow, is this ad cynical:

I can’t see John McCain gaining a lot of traction with this approach. Joe Biden is not an in-your-face pick for Clinton supporters. Hillary herself said she would consider Biden for any position. This ad is called “Passed Over,” but it’s not as if Obama passed Hillary over for a running mate who was less qualified than she is.

Competitors criticize each other in primaries–big deal. This is nothing worse than what Mitt Romney said about McCain during the Republican competition. This Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton will strongly endorse Barack Obama in front of a packed house in Denver.

What is McCain offering women on any of the issues Hillary championed during the primaries? Zero. And when he picks a down-the-line conservative as his running mate, that will become even more clear.

UPDATE: From CNN:

Clinton’s team immediately dubbed the ad misleading. “Hillary Clinton’s support of Barack Obama is pretty clear,” said Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn’t. It’s interesting how those remarks didn’t make it into his ad.”

This morning, Politico reported that John McCain was unable to say exactly how many houses he and his wife own. Click the link to listen to the audio.

Within hours, Barack Obama’s campaign released this ad to run on cable television:

Also the same day, Obama and a bunch of Democratic surrogates pounded on this gaffe, linking it to McCain’s recent statement that he considers people making less than $5 million annually to be “middle class.” (In reality, an annual family income of $350,000 puts an American in the top 1 percent.)

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign tried to change the subject to the fact that he was a POW in Vietnam, the fact that Obama’s house is pretty big, and Obama’s relationship with Chicago businessman Tony Rezko.

A new conservative 501(c)4 organization has produced a hit piece on Obama to run on television in Ohio and Michigan. Ed Failor Jr., former McCain aide in Iowa and executive vice president of Iowans for Tax Relief, is a leading figure in this new group.

The good news for McCain today was that the Federal Election Commission unanimously decided to let McCain cheat by getting out of accepting public financing for the primaries. McCain used the fact that he’d qualified for public financing to secure loans to his campaign in 2007. He also used his public financing certificate to qualify for the Ohio ballot without collecting signatures. Then, once he won the nomination, he weaseled out of his promise. Adam B has more background and analysis of this FEC ruling.

But other than that, I have to agree with JedReport: It was a really bad day to be John McCain.

UPDATE: Seriously, how many houses does the McCain family own? Politico says eight properties, but ProgressiveAccountability.org says at least ten.

SECOND UPDATE: Karl Rove comes up with creative but not convincing spin: making fun of McCain’s housing gaffe is an attack on Cindy McCain, because the homes were bought with her money. So apparently Obama is now attacking McCain’s wife!

I don’t see much evidence that Barack Obama has a problem with women voters. He leads among women by more than Al Gore or John Kerry did at the same time during their own presidential campaigns. The most recent Iowa poll shows Obama leading by six overall but by 12 among Iowa women.

(UPDATE: A new national poll commissioned by EMILY’s list shows Obama leading among women by 12. He leads among women of all age groups, but his narrowest margin is among baby boomer women. Like Digby said, Don’t put baby boomer in the corner.)

Among purveyors of conventional wisdom, however, there is still a perception that Obama has work to do among women voters, and particularly the women who preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

The Obama campaign has been scheduling women’s outreach events to address this issue. Today Governor Kathleen Sebelius is campaigning around central Iowa, and one of her appearances is a lunch in Des Moines specifically geared toward women.

Last Friday I attended a different women’s event featuring Dana Singiser. She served as Director of Women’s Outreach for Clinton’s presidential campaign before joining the Obama campaign as Senior Adviser for the Women’s Vote.

Singiser wrote the Obama campaign memo on John McCain’s “woman problem,” released earlier this week.

Join me after the jump for more.