Two websites are keeping comprehensive lists of newspaper endorsements for Barack Obama and John McCain:

Editor and Publisher:

The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements, by 105 to 33, a better than 3-1 margin, […]

In a real shocker, two solid Bush papers in 2004, the Houston Chronicle and Austin American-Statesman, also came out for Obama today. So did the more traditionally Democratic the News & Obsever in Raleigh and the Orlando Sentinel, both in key battleground states.

Obama’s lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205.

Cheers to the Mason City Globe-Gazette, one of more than two dozen newspapers that endorsed Obama despite backing Bush four years ago.

DemConWatch’s newspaper endorsement list is particularly helpful because they indicate which party the newspaper favored in 2004, and they have a separate column listing all the newspapers in the top 100 by circulation that have not yet endorsed a presidential candidate.

Many newspapers have cited McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as a reason for endorsing Obama. That includes Republican papers like the Houston Chronicle and the Chicago Tribune, which is endorsing a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 161 years.

I wouldn’t exaggerate the importance of newspaper endorsements, but this trend underscores how many Republicans have lost confidence in the McCain/Palin ticket.

I was shocked when an old family friend told me over the weekend that he’d voted for Obama. He caucused for McCain in January, and he doesn’t think Obama will do a very good job, but he didn’t want to take the chance of Palin ever becoming president.

This is a devastating blow to John McCain’s candidacy. Watch Colin Powell explain his reasoning at length here:

He is impressed by Obama’s style and substance, by Obama’s choice of running mate, and by the way Obama has handled himself during the economic crisis. He admires McCain but is disturbed by the choice of Sarah Palin (whom Powell does not consider ready to be president) and the way McCain and senior Republicans have tried to attack Obama this fall.

Powell is not my favorite person, but the media love him, and millions of Americans admire him. I’d been hearing rumors for months that Powell might endorse Obama, but I was skeptical.

Also in the news this weekend, Obama’s campaign announced that they raised $150 million in September, and Obama drew crowds of 100,000 in St. Louis and 75,000 in Kansas City yesterday.

Time is running out for McCain. I don’t see how he changes the dynamic.

UPDATE: So I took the kids to “sample Sunday” at Picket Fence Creamery in Woodward today, and there was a car parked in the lot with a bumper sticker I’d never seen. It asked, “Who will be your commander in chief?” On the left side, there was a head shot of McCain with an American flag backdrop, and on the right was that photo of Obama in Muslim garb when he visited Africa. A woman was sitting in the car talking to some people standing next to it. As I walked by, I said, “Colin Powell doesn’t agree with your bumper sticker.”

They looked confused, so I said, “Colin Powell said this morning that he’s voting for Obama. I guess he knows what it takes to be commander in chief.”

That felt good.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign announced on October 20 that they are canceling this event so that Obama can visit his grandmother, who is seriously ill.

I was surprised to read in the Des Moines Register tonight that Barack Obama plans to hold a public rally in the Des Moines area this Thursday, October 23.

Frankly, I think he ought to be spending his time in other states, in light of the polling average that has him leading John McCain by 11 points in Iowa. Also, note these statistics from the Register article:

Obama has 120 paid staff working out of 50 offices throughout the state. Meanwhile, McCain has about a quarter the staff and 16 offices.

Obama’s campaign also reports having 6,000 volunteers, including neighborhood-level campaign leaders in roughly 90 percent of Iowa’s more than 1,700 precincts.

I wonder who won last month’s “Iowa Call Challenge” for a chance to meet Obama in person on his next visit.

(Yes, I know it's really 18 and I'm two days late.)

What Changed?

Really, not much has changed. If you look at where things were last week (Obama gaining ground, McCain losing it) this week is just an extension of those trends. With two Presidential debates and the VP debates under the voters' belts (the polls haven't quite caught up to Wednesday's debate yet), the map continues to look very blue, even if some individual states are fluctuating.

Obama holds all last week's “likely” and “lean” states, with Michigan and Pennsylvania (38 EV) moving from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”. FL, CO, NH and VA (52 EV) move from “toss up” to “lean Obama”.

West Virginia and North Dakota (8 EV) join the toss-up states this week, with McCain leading in WV by 2.8% and in ND by just .5% Of all the current “toss up” states, Obama leads in NV, MO, OH and NC. McCain leads in ND, WV and IN.

In a troubling sign for McCain, Montana moves back into “lean McCain” and for the first time, so does Georgia (18 EV combined).

Where they stand:

Obama:  Start picking out furniture and interviewing for your cabinet members. Only a major scandal or historic national event could derail the O train at this point.

The only question now is this: Does Obama focus on running up the score by campaigning for himself in tossup states and “lean McCain” states, or does he slow down and shift tactics.  He could, for example start holding rallies with (but really for) close congressional candidates, even in strong red or blue states. Or, he could slowly reduce his campaign schedule and start focusing on the transition team as some have suggested.

McCain: It's probably over. If McCain can win four or five of the tossup states  he can potentially avoid the election being called a “landslide”.

However, given what it might take to do that (serious $ and mud slinging), it might benefit McCain to focus on salvaging his reputation by ratcheting down the attack ads and vicious sentiment and running a more honorable and humane campaign. Like Obama, McCain may be able and better served to shift some resources and time to congressional races. 

According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 99.5%  of the last 1000 simulations, with an average electoral vote of 340 to McCain's 198.

If the election were held today, and  every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a landslide–364-174 electoral votes.

When John McCain won the Florida primary, putting him well on the way to sealing the Republican nomination, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach. I had been hoping the GOP would nominate Mitt Romney. Not only did many religious conservatives deeply distrust Romney, I felt he would be easy to expose as a phony say-anything-to-win kind of politician. In contrast, McCain was a media darling with a “maverick” image, even though he also flip-flopped on many issues while seeking the presidency.

Many factors favored the Democrats this year, in particular George W. Bush’s rock-bottom approval ratings and the lopsided right direction/wrong track numbers every pollster has found. But it seemed to me in February that the Republicans had nominated their strongest general-election candidate, while our two remaining primary contenders seemed to me to have big hurdles to overcome in the general.

When McCain frittered away the spring and early summer, reshuffling his campaign staff several times, I started to realize he was a weaker candidate than I’d previously believed. Watching McCain’s excrutiatingly long non-answer on whether insurance companies that cover Viagra should also cover birth control pills, I remember thinking that Romney would never have fumbled that question so badly. He would have had a slick reply along safe Republican lines, such as, “I don’t think the government should be in the business of telling private insurers what to cover.”

After Obama picked Joe Biden as a running mate, Republican talking heads were all over the lack of executive experience on the Democratic ticket. Of course McCain doesn’t have any either, and his running mate was mayor of a small town (where the city manager did most of the work) and then a governor who abused her power less than halfway through her first term. Romney had a legitimate claim to executive experience, having run a large company and then a state government. Would he have made as dumb a VP pick as McCain did? I doubt it.

Each time McCain loses a debate to Obama, I’ve thought that Romney would have done better on the stage. Sure, he was a big phony, but he carried himself with more confidence and spoke with more authority in his voice. Perhaps Obama would have won all the post-debate polls anyway, but I think Romney would have made it closer.

I also think Romney would have been a stronger voice for Republicans on economic policy in light of this fall’s meltdown in the banking sector and stock market. Here’s the Republican National Committee’s latest ad, pounding Obama on his inexperience in connection with the current financial crisis:

Obama’s relative inexperience is a vulnerability, but he has handled himself well this fall and done a good job answering the economic questions in all three debates. McCain has seemed erratic by comparison. Romney would have been able to play his “I know the business sector” card, and I doubt he would have tried to get the first debate delayed, which looked like an odd stunt from McCain.

Along the same lines, watch this brand-new ad from McCain and try to tell me Romney wouldn’t have been more credible delivering this message:

Romney would have looked more confident and sounded more polished. Also, Romney’s biography would make it easier to believe he had a plan to restore people’s savings, jobs and financial security.

Most important, Romney has not been in Congress for the last eight years, voting with President Bush more than 90 percent of the time. McCain has, which is the focus of this brand-new ad from Obama:

By the way, the Service Employees International Union put together a very clever ad on the theme of McCain being the same as Bush (or worse).

I acknowledge that Romney probably would have lost the general election. The economic indicators and trends in voter registration point to a Democratic wave. Romney’s past history of supporting abortion rights and even gay rights would have created major problems with part of the Republican base. Also, perhaps there would have been great resistance to electing a Mormon president. (For what it’s worth, I think Romney would be the GOP nominee if not for his religion.)

But McCain is just not running a good campaign, and the economic issues, where McCain is weak, have more salience now than the military and security issues that are allegedly McCain’s strengths. It’s hard for me to believe that Romney would have done worse against Obama.

What do you think?

UPDATE: The emergence of “Joe the Plumber” strengthens my case. McCain mentioned him about 20 times during last night’s debate, apparently without sufficient vetting. It turns out that Joe the Plumber is not a licensed plumber, owes back taxes, and is a registered Republican (not an independent). Oh yeah, and he’s also related to Charles Keating’s son-in-law (as in “Keating Five” Charles Keating).

Would the Romney campaign have staked so much on “Joe the Plumber” without doing due diligence? I don’t think so.

Barack Obama has a big psychological edge going into his final debate with John McCain. He leads McCain in all of the recent nationwide polls and in most of the key swing state polls, giving him a big lead in the projected electoral vote. McCain desperately needs to have the debate of his life and hope that Obama makes a big mistake.

Deep pessimism appears to have set in among the Republican political and pundit class, as you will learn if you read this Daily Kos diary: GOP Rats Deserting the USS McCain in Titanic Proportions. It’s chock full of quotes from angry or dejected Republicans.

Another piece that’s gotten a lot of traction today is this e-mail Ben Smith received from a demoralized Republican operative. This guy convened a focus group to test a hard-hitting ad linking Obama to terrorists among other things. The group believed his ad but are planning to vote for Obama anyway. Even though they think he’ll be a bad president. Even a woman who thinks Obama himself was in the Weathermen is planning to vote for him because of the health care issue. You really should click over to read this post.

McCain does have one thing going for him: he’s got a long relationship with Bob Schieffer of CBS, who is moderating tonight’s debate.

I probably won’t watch the debate live, but please share your comments in this thread. I will weigh in later when I’ve had a chance to listen.

I leave you with Obama’s latest tv ad, a good positive spot about education:

UPDATE: I caught the beginning of the debate, but then fell asleep while putting my kids to bed. Maybe I can catch the rerun on C-SPAN at some point. McCain seemed to be doing ok while I was watching, but apparently it didn’t go over well when he brought up William Ayers later in the debate. All the focus groups and snap polls gave the debate to Obama.

Note to aspiring politicians: No matter what your position is on when abortion should be legal (if ever), it’s a bad idea to use your fingers to make air quotes while saying “the health of the mother.”

Also, it’s best to avoid letting yourself be photographed or videotaped looking like this or like this. Not presidential.

Here’s a good summary of the post-debate focus group and polling data.

Iowa State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald unveiled a new tax calculator tool this morning in a conference call with reporters. According to a statement from the Obama campaign in Iowa, the calculator  

allows Iowans to test just how much savings individuals and families can expect under both Barack Obama and John McCain’s proposed tax plans.  The calculator prompts users to enter their households’ specific data, and then calculates the difference under each candidate’s proposals.  See the calculator at: http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

[…]

Treasurer Fitzgerald, who has been Iowa’s state treasurer for 26 years, said, “Iowans deserve to know the facts about each candidates’ tax policies.  As the McCain campaign continues to launch false attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan, this new tax calculator will help voters across the country see for themselves how the Obama-Biden economic plan will provide real tax relief to 95 percent of working families.  Our country faces challenging economic times, and we need steady leadership that will put money back in the pockets of middle class families, create new jobs, strengthen our small businesses and turn our economy around – that’s what we’ll get with Barack Obama as president.”

Barack Obama will give a tax cut to 95 percent of workers and their families, leading middle class families to face the lowest income tax rates in over 50 years. He will also eliminate income taxes for seniors making less than $50,000, and give struggling homeowners a mortgage tax worth 10 percent of the interest they pay on their mortgage.

On the other hand, McCain will put the corporate interests ahead of the middle class by giving $45 billion in tax breaks to the 200 largest corporations in America, including $4 billion in giveaways to oil companies that are already making record profits.  And while he’ll reward corporations that ship jobs overseas, he won’t give any tax relief at all to 101 million households.

I just used the calculator, plugging in my family’s details, and we save five times as much under the Obama tax plan as we do under the McCain tax plan.

There’s also a short web ad on the tax calculator page, which highlights the key facts about the Obama and McCain tax proposals.

It’s nice to see a Democratic candidate going on offense when it comes to tax policy.

Lots going on these next few days. I’ll have an open thread for discussing tonight’s debate up later.

Wednesday, October 15:

The final presidential debate will be on tv starting at 8 pm. The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized 10 debate-watching parties around the state:

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15TH, 2008

Cedar Falls

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

2512 Whitetail Dr.

Cedar Falls, Iowa

Cedar Rapids

8:00 PM

Irish Democrat

3207 1st Ave SE

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Council Bluffs

8:00 PM

Barley’s  

114 W Broadway

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Des Moines

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa

Dubuque

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

2600 Dodge St Ste B4

Dubuque, Iowa

Mason City Area

7:30 PM

The Home of Mike and Diane Glynn

1008 1st Ave S

Clear Lake, Iowa

Ottumwa

8:00 PM

Tom Tom Tap (in The Hotel Ottumwa)

101 E. Second

Ottumwa, Iowa

Quad Cities

6:30 PM

Home of Jim Mika & Vicki Felger

843 Stagecoach Trail

Le Claire, Iowa

Sioux City

7:00 PM

Debate Watch Party with supporters of Barack Obama and Rob Hubler

The Home of Terri O’Brien

3444 Jackson St.

Sioux City, Iowa

Waterloo

7:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1015 East 4th Street

Waterloo, Iowa

John Kerry will be campaigning around Iowa on behalf of Obama, and Congressional candidate Becky Greenwald will also appear at the Kerry events in Marshalltown, Ames and Waukee:

9:00 AM

Senator John Kerry to officially open the 50th Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Office

1015 East 4th Street

Waterloo, Iowa

11:30 AM

Senator John Kerry to Talk to Veterans about the Obama-Biden Plan to Support our Veterans (Becky Greenwald will also speak)

Iowa Veterans Home

Malloy Leisure Resource Center

1301 Summit Street

Marshalltown, Iowa

1:15 PM

Senator John Kerry and Becky Greenwald to hold a “Vote Now for Change” Rally

Iowa State University

Memorial Union – Sun Room

2229 Lincoln Way

Ames, Iowa

3:00 PM

Senator John Kerry to Kick Off a “Vets to Vets” Phone Bank

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa

4:45 PM

Senator John Kerry and Becky Greenwald to Hold a Meet and Greet with Voters

Mickey’s Irish Pub and Grill

50 East Laurel Street

Waukee, Iowa

Congressional candidate Rob Hubler will be in Afton at 11:30 am, will hold a Creston Main Street Tour at 12:30 pm, and will appear at 2:00 pm in the Creston Nursing and Allied Science Auditorium of Southwestern Community College. (Please call 712 258-9069 for details.)

At 7:00 pm, Hubler will attend a pre-debate reception at the home of Terri Obrien in Sioux City (details above along with other debate parties).

Congressman Bruce Braley will hold an “economy listening roundtable” at 12:00 pm at the NICC Town Clock Center, 680 Main Street in Dubuque.

Braley will conduct a “Main Street Listening Tour” at 3:00 pm at the Fidelity Bank and Trust, 208 2nd St SE in Dyersville.

From the Fairness Fund PAC:

Do you want to elect leaders that promise change, equality, and genuine hope?  This November we have a chance to send a Fair-minded Majority back to the State House to continue to fight for justice and fairness.  Anti-gay groups and candidates are mobilizing for victory this fall – we must be ready to help our friends and allies.  I hope you can join us to show your support for one of our friends and allies!

Please join us on Wednesday, October 15th, for a meet and greet with State Representative Candidate Gretchen Lawyer at the Mars Cafe (2318 University Avenue, Des Moines, Iowa), from 5:30-7:30pm.  Gretchen will be there to answer questions about her vision for Iowa and what she plans to do when elected.  Coffee will be served.  There is a suggested donation of $30.

Gretchen Lawyer is running for State Representative in Iowa District 36. Gretchen Lawyer, a stay-at home-mother of two and a former teacher, is running for office because she believes we need the values of education, community, and hard work represented in the State Legislature, and that by working together we can put those values into action.

Please RSVP to Brad Clark at 515-783-5950.

Thursday, October 16:

Rob Hubler has a busy schedule; please call 712 258-9069 for details about the following events:

9 a.m. Sheldon

10 a.m. Sanborn

11 a.m. Hartley

1 p.m. Marcus

3 p.m.Aurelia

4:30 p.m. Cherokee

7 p.m. Cherokee Dems Office Open House

Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico: Implications and Strategies for Iowa

This day-long conference begins at 8 a.m. at the Gateway Center in Ames, and will look at new and emerging research findings and pressing needs related to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Among the speakers will be Darrell Brown, chief of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coastal Management Branch who coordinates the EPA’s efforts to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Officials from various state agencies, NGOs and Iowa State researchers will present and participate in panel discussions. Registration begins September 8. Contacts: Cathy Kling, conference coordinator/research, ckling@iastate.edu, (515) 294-5767; or Sandy Clarke, communications/meeting planning, sclarke@iastate.edu, (515) 294-6257. See conference web site: http://www.card.iastate.edu/hy…  This conference is a project of the Leopold Center Policy Initiative with support from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.

Friday, October 17:

Iowa Environmental Council Annual Conference and Meeting–Waters that Unite Us is this year’s annual conference theme. Please mark your calendars and plan to join us for a day of learning and networking. The conference will be held at the Botanical Center in Des Moines, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., with a members meeting following shortly after close of the conference. At the conference we will explore where and how humans are having positive and negative impacts on Iowa waters and some of the ways individuals and communities can participate in solutions. Registration will begin in August. Speakers include Cornelia F. Mutel author of “The Emerald Horizon – The History of Nature in Iowa,” and Cornelia Butler Flora, Director of North Central Regional Center for Rural Development. Visit www.iaenvironment.org for more information in late July.

WILD, WILD Aquatic, & Learning Tree Facilitator Training, October 17-18, Guthrie Center. The Iowa DNR is offering a Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree facilitator training workshop on Friday, October 17th and Saturday, October 18th at the Springbrook Conservation Education Center near Guthrie Center. Anyone who trains teachers, naturalists, youth leaders, or others involved in teaching about the environment in Iowa is invited to attend. Training is FREE (a $50 refundable deposit is required to reserve your space). Stipends for attending and mileage reimbursement are available. Lodging and meals will be provided.  For more information, contact the Aquatic Education Program: 641/747-2200; AquaticEd_Info@dnr.iowa.gov

While liveblogging John McCain’s rally in Davenport on Saturday, John Deeth reported on the unusual invocation offered by Pastor Arnold Conrad. I admit that I didn’t pay much attention at the time, because I have read so many reports about right-wing preachers telling people that God wants them to vote for McCain, or even that true Christians are required to vote for McCain.

But Conrad wasn’t saying that. He was saying something much stranger. Here’s the video and partial transcript, courtesy of TPM TV:

I also would also add, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god–whether it’s Hindu, Buddha, Allah–that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons. And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they’re going to think that their God is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and election day.

I have no idea how the crowd received this invocation. It was all over the national media, prompting McCain’s campaign to distance itself with this statement:

“While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama’s judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief.”

Why am I piling on when Keith Olbermann has named Pastor Conrad the “worst person in the world” for a day?

To me the issue is not whether Conrad is misusing his authority as a clergyman, because as I said, I am used to reading about that kind of behavior on the religious right. (My own rabbi won’t even reveal how he votes, let alone try to influence the congregation.)

Rather, I am trying to get my mind around the mentality that produced Conrad’s invocation.

Ben Craw of TPM TV called this “Mothra vs. Godzilla: Monotheistic Deity Throwdown,” which conveys some of the prayer’s absurdity.

But setting jokes aside for the moment, how presumptuous and even blasphemous is it for Conrad to assume the following?

1. He knows that God would prefer John McCain to become president.

2. He knows that God’s reputation is riding on the outcome of this election.

3. He fears that the all-powerful God might hesitate to use his power to make sure McCain wins the election.

4. He suspects that the omniscient God may not be aware that his reputation is riding on the outcome of this election.

5. He thinks God needs to be reminded that “all that happens between now and election day” will affect whether God’s name is sufficiently honored on earth.

Aren’t evangelical Christians supposed to believe that God is sovereign and we are not to second-guess His actions?

I remember reading an article years ago about the religious right’s impact on the 2004 election. I can’t find the link now, but a woman quoted in the piece said something like, “I am so glad that God sent us a strong leader in George Bush, because I was worried He would punish us with John Kerry.” I laughed at her apparent insight into God’s mind. She believed that God controlled the election, but in her mind, only a Bush victory would indicate that God preferred Bush. A Kerry victory would indicate that God had decided to punish America.

Pastor Conrad has taken this presumption to a new level. If Obama wins the election, it won’t be because God has consciously decided to let the “wrong” candidate win, it will be because God wasn’t sufficiently clued in about what’s at stake or didn’t care enough about His name being hallowed on earth.

Conrad is apparently in a better position to know what’s best for us and what’s best for God than God Himself.

Like I said, bizarre.

Share your thoughts and interpretations in the comments.

I missed this Daily Kos diary by Bryan Lefwitz a few days ago. It featured this You Tube containing the audio from a robocall paid for by the McCain/Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee:

Apparently the robocall was hitting answering machines in eastern Iowa on Saturday, the same day John McCain held a rally in Davenport.

Lefwitz’s diary also shows a four-page direct-mail piece about the Iowa floods, which was paid for by the RNC and authorized by McCain/Palin. Click over to see this disgraceful attempt to politicize Congress’s response to the flooding. One page shows a small house submerged in several feet of floodwater, alongside these words:

IOWANS NEEDED OUR HELP

But Barack Obama and His Democrat

Congress Went On Vacation

A pathetic and desperate move from a candidate who trails Obama by more than 11 points in Iowa, according to the pollster.com polling average.

Anyway, as Daily Kos user JR reminds us, it was McCain who enjoyed birthday cake with George W. Bush while levees were breaching in New Orleans three years ago.

Are any other candidates (from either party) using images of the flooding or flood-related rhetoric in their campaigns? Post a comment or send me an e-mail if you know of any examples.

Also, feel free to share your thoughts on a question Josh Marshall posed recently: after this election, will McCain ever apologize for the way he campaigned?  

The longer we delay fixing the health care system – reigning in costs, covering everyone, and fairly sharing risk – the harder it will be to reform the system at all. And it's not just because America is currently facing, in the words of just about everyone, “the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression.” As David Lightman and Kevin G. Hall point out today in McClatchy Newspapers, the simple demographics will be against us if we wait:

Beginning in 2011, the first wave of baby boomers – Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – will reach official retirement age. From that point forward, the federal government's finances will be strained, as more and more Americans retire expecting a shrinking number of active workers to pay their promised health and pension benefits.

To put it more starkly: Medicare's trustees project the hospital insurance fund will become insolvent in about 10 years, as its expenditures grow at a 7.4 percent annual rate. The government, the trustees said, will need $342 billion to cover insurance costs during that period.

…

“The longer action on reforming health care and Social Security is delayed, the more painful and difficult the choices will become,” said a Government Accountability Office study in June. “The federal government faces increasing pressures, yet a shrinking window of opportunity for phasing in adjustments.”

Medicare, the report said, “represents a much larger, faster-growing and more immediate problem than Social Security.”

A series of factors are driving up Medicare costs. According to the GAO and the trustees, medical technology is often overused; the health care market doesn't operate on a supply-and-demand basis as people often don't shop for the lowest price; and chronic health problems – such as obesity or substance abuse – require expensive, lengthy treatment.

Medicare (and similarly, Medicaid) face such staggering budget shortfalls to a large extent as a consequence of America's private, patchwork health care system. Preventative care is less costly in the long run, yet, because the health insurance industry has been so deregulated as to allow them to deny care at every opportunity and price care out of the reach of millions, America has 47 million uninsured and millions more under-insured. This means millions of Americans don't see their doctor as regularly as they should to catch medical problems early before they become costly emergencies. And, as the economy sinks, people are cutting back on care, making the problem worse.

Medicare (and to some extent, Medicaid) functions essentially as a high risk pool, a group of people (in this case, the elderly) who are less profitable to insurance companies because they use so much health care. High risk pools, basically by definition, don't work. If the theory of insurance is to spread out risk (everyone in a system all pay into a pot so when one person needs to use their coverage, that cost can be absorbed by everyone), then high risk pools make no sense. Putting everyone who you know are going to use a lot of health insurance into the same pot and asking them to share costs is silly – there are no “low risk” people in the system to absorb some of the cost. And because everyone at some time in their life is “high risk” for large health insurance costs (everyone eventually gets sick or old), Medicare functions as a dumping ground for the private insurance industry. Private insurance takes monthly premiums from the young and healthy all their life, and when they get old and sick (and unprofitable), they are dumped on the government.

This is why Medicare is projected to be the largest driver of the national debt in the near future, and, because baby boomers are about to enter the system in huge numbers, this is why health reform needs to happen in this country immediately.

Simply getting everybody covered adequately would be a huge step forward. A guarantee of a certain level of care, no matter if you're on private or public insurance plans, would make sure people receive the care they need throughout their life, lowering overall costs. A subsidized public insurance plan that would take everybody would go a long way towards eliminating the number of people in America without insurance. And regulating all insurance plans – public and private – to make sure they cover pre-existing conditions and can't dump “unprofitable” customers would ensure risk is shared fairly, as it is meant to be.

This, of course, is Health Care for America Now's vision, shared by 83 Members of Congress, including Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Contrast that with the conservative vision, championed by John McCain:

• Less regulation on insurance companies to do away with state based insurance, allowing companies to set up shop in the states with the least regulation and forcing Americans to shop on their own for health insurance.
• Taxing your employee health benefits, doing away with the employer-based system
• Funding a paltry tax credit (which goes straight to the insurance industry) with cuts to Medicare and Medicaid

No guarantee of care, no incentive to promote prevention, no fair risk sharing, and a plan that is estimated to grow the ranks of the uninsured in America by 5 million in just five years.

There is a clear difference here, and that's why it's so important to make health care a priority in this election and immediately after the next president is inaugurated. It seems the nation is waking up to that difference, too. In the past few weeks, health care has been a focus of some excellent debate questions, it has been targeted in campaign advertisements, and the subject of numerous news stories. And of course, Health Care for America Now has thrown our hat into the ring, spending $4.3 million to put advertisements about John McCain's health care plan (as well as 7 congressional candidates) on the air across the country:

America is finally having the health care debate it needs to be having. What's at stake is our economy, our national debt, our health, and our happiness. Let's just hope the urgency is still there in January.

(also posted at MyDD and the NOW! blog)

I'm proud to work for Health Care for America Now.

Over at the Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog, Hilzoy had a great comment on news that John McCain may soon propose “economic measures aimed directly at the middle class” such as “tax cuts — perhaps temporary — for capital gains and dividends”:

Because what everyone is really worried about right now is how they’ll manage to pay the taxes on their massive capital gains.

The biggest surprise for me this year is how poor a campaign McCain has run since locking up the Republican nomination.

This is an open thread on the dumbest policy idea or campaign tactic McCain has come up with in recent months.

Although McCain had no great options for VP, in my opinion, I still think picking Sarah Palin was one of his biggest mistakes.

UPDATE: The New York Times reports,

Despite signals that Senator John McCain would have new prescriptions for the economic crisis after a weekend of meetings, his campaign said Sunday that Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some.

There’s a winning message!

Everyone who doesn’t think that current developments call for some economic policy proposals, please raise your hands.

On Thursday at Open Left, Chris Bowers had this advice for the opposition in his very upbeat presidential forecast:

When it comes to offering concern troll advice to McCain and Republicans, I would recommend shutting down all paid media, and firing all campaign staff. McCain should take his remaining money, and distribute it to the RNC, NRCC and NRSC. Target a few close House and Senate seats to try and limit the damage, but otherwise save money for 2010 and 2012. When you are beaten, it is probably better to  withdraw, save what troops and resources you can, but live to fight another day.

Crooked Timber reported yesterday on the latest from the rumor mill:

So I hear (via a prominent member of the sane Republican faction) that the word on the right side of the street is that the Republican National Committee is about to pull the plug on its joint ads with the McCain campaign, and devote its resources instead to trying to save a couple of the senators who are at serious risk of losing their seats.

On one level, this strategy makes the most sense for the RNC. McCain is looking more and more unlikely to win 270 electoral votes, so helping him is probably not the best use of resources. I am told that the Republicans did this in September/October 1996 once it became clear that Bob Dole would lose to Bill Clinton.

Furthermore, Senate Republicans may well be leaning on the RNC to do more for their incumbents. There is real concern now that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could lose in Kentucky. That would be a terrible blow to the GOP caucus in the Senate (click the link to read why), and McConnell is more popular with his colleagues than McCain.

Sarah Palin’s recent travel schedule also suggests a focus on Congressional races. Last week she was in California (not a battleground state in the presidential race, but a place with several contested House seats) and in Omaha (where Nebraska’s second district is up for grabs). This weekend she is headed to West Virginia, where Shelley Moore Capito could lose in the second Congressional district. Capito is not only the sole Republican in the West Virginia delegation to Congress, she is the most likely Republican to win Robert Byrd’s Senate seat after he leaves the scene.

On the other hand, it would be devastating to Republican morale for the media to start reporting that the RNC had given up on McCain. I suspect that would depress GOP turnout in a lot of states, perhaps putting more House seats in play even as the RNC blankets the airwaves in behalf of a few vulnerable senators.

Here in Iowa, Republican incumbent Tom Latham is running lots of tv and radio ads in the fourth district (D+0), while 10 worst list honoree Steve King is not up on tv or radio and is barely campaigning in the fifth district (R+8). We could pick up both of these seats if expectations of an Obama landslide depress Republican turnout.

However the RNC resolves the competing demands for its resources, Sam Wang, a neurologist and political analyst who writes for the Princeton Election Consortium, thinks activists in both parties should forget about the presidential race. He argues that a “hard look at reality” suggests that Obama is going to win big, and further donations to his campaign will not affect the outcome. According to Wang, it makes more sense for activists to focus their energy and donations on the close Senate races right now.

I mostly agree, except that I think activists in battleground states (which Iowa is not) have to follow through to make sure Obama’s supporters turn out for him.

In all the states, we need to keep directing money and volunteer time to the state legislative races, which are important for many reasons.

What do you think?

UPDATE: A commenter at the Princeton Election Consortium site makes a good point:

I agree that supporting close Senate races should be primary, but continuing to contribute to the Presidential campaign isn’t useless. The margin of electoral-college victory, and even more of the popular vote, is important in defining the national sense of mandate for the victor. Politicians take notice too-as when Democrats voted for Reagan’s tax cuts (unfortunately) because of his victory margin. With a major economic rescue and reform needed, a sense of mandate is essential.

Share your thoughts on the campaign news of the day in Iowa.

Will John McCain hit Barack Obama hard today, or will he try to tone down the crowd’s hostility toward Obama, at the risk of getting booed like he did yesterday?

UPDATE: John Deeth’s liveblog is here.

Meanwhile, enjoy this YouTube:

Remember that the final presidential debate will be on Wednesday, October 15.

Saturday, October 11:

John McCain is coming to Davenport for a late morning rally with lots of Iowa Republicans. If you go there, please post a diary to tell us about the event and the mood in the crowd.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack will hold a press conference to discuss McCain’s failed economic policies at 2:00pm in the UFCW Hall, 1401 West 3rd Street in Davenport.

The Quad Cities Earth Charter Summit is happening from 8 am to 4 pm at the River Center in downtown Davenport. This year’s event will give you many opportunities to explore facts and opportunities for better living on planet Earth. You will leave with hope for the future and energy to make a difference. In addition to presentations and displays by local groups, there will be several speakers including, Colin Beavan, “No Impact Man” – who has been featured in media on programs as diverse as NPR news and “Good Morning America.” Colin’s topic will be “Does Our Happiness Have to Cost the Planet?” The keynote speaker in the morning will be well-known University of Iowa professor Dr. Jerry Schnoor to discuss the Global Climate Crisis. Cost for the day is just $20 per person and includes an earth friendly lunch. For more details and to download a registration brochure go to www.qcearthcharter.org  or contact lbellomy@chmiowa.org.

Rob Hubler will be on the Onawa Main Street, beginning at 10:45 am. He will attend a preforum cookout in Onawa beginning at 12:30 pm. Then he will attend the Onawa Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum at 2 p.m. in the Onawa Public Library.

Hubler will also be at the Sac County Democrats Fall Picnic at 5:30 pm.

Becky Greenwald is holding a Coffee and Canvass with Sharon Steckman (candidate in Iowa House district 13) at 1 pm in the Borealis Coffee Shop,

316 N Federal Ave, Mason City.

Greenwald will attend the Humboldt County Soup Supper beginning at 5 pm in the VFW Hall, 412 Main St. in Dakota City.

At 7:30 pm, Greenwald will attend a fundraiser with Senator Rich Olive in the Randall Gym, Intersection of 3rd St. and School St. in Randall.

Sunday, October 12:

Becky Greenwald will be at the Covered Bridge Parade from 1pm – 3pm in Winterset, 7th Ave. and Husky Drive.

Greenwald will attend the Hardin County Democratic Fundraiser from 5pm – 7pm at the American Legion Building, 709 S. Oak Street in Iowa Falls.

Rob Hubler will be in Coon Rapids at 4 pm. Please call 712 352-2077 for details.

Join Whiterock Conservancy’s land stewardship crew in collecting prairie and savanna seeds for use in restoration projects. Learn to identify grassland plant species, learn their habitats, and assist in collecting the seeds for the future. Join the collection crew just east of Coon Rapids. Help collect today so that we may plant tomorrow. Contact WRC’s ecologist, Elizabeth Hill to sign up for prairie seed collection forays: elizabeth@whiterockconservancy.org.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival is opening:

“America’s Lost Landscape; The Tallgrass Prairie” is the first of seven films being screened as part of the new Iowa City Environmental Film Festival. The film will be shown Sunday, October 12 at 2:00 PM at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A.

Connie Mutel, local resident and author of The Emerald Horizon, The History of Nature in Iowa , will lead a discussion following the film. The film is hosted by Citizens for Our Land Our Water Our Future. ( www.landwaterfuture.org)

This film tells the rich and complex story of one of the most astonishing alterations of nature in human history.  “Examines the record of human struggle, triumph and defeat that prairie history exemplifies.   IDA’s Pare Lorentz award citation.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival was developed in collaboration with non-profit environmental groups throughout the region. Films will be screened once a month at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A. Screenings are free and open to the public and include discussions with local advocates and experts.

For more information on this and upcoming films go to:

www.EnvironmentalFilmsIC.com

or

info@environmentalfilmsic.com

I heard Connie Mutel speak about her new book at the annual meeting of 1000 Friends of Iowa in August. I highly recommend her presentation.

Monday, October 13:

Rob Hubler will speak to the Sioux City Downtown Rotary Club, beginning at 11:45 am.

Governor Chet Culver will attend a reception to raise money for Becky Greenwald’s campaign at the home of Marcia and Rick Wanamaker, 710 Southfork Drive in Waukee, at 5:30 pm. For more details or to RSVP, contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.

Singer-songwriter Carole King will be campaigning for Barack Obama. I got my picture taken with her when she came to Des Moines for John Kerry shortly before the 2004 caucuses. However, I forgot to bring my copy of “Tapestry” for her to autograph! Details for her upcoming appearances:

Carole King is a Grammy Award winning singer-songwriter.  She has been inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  King has traveled across the country, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, on behalf of the Obama campaign.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13TH, 2008

10:00 AM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Coffee

Campaign for Change Office

104 N 1st St.

Winterset, Iowa

1:00 PM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Lunch

Firehouse in Red Oak

310 Washington Ave.

Red Oak, Iowa

5:30 PM

Carole King to Kick-Off a “Vote Now for Change” Phone Bank

Prairie Blue

114 N. Wilson St.

Jefferson, Iowa

7:45 PM

Carole King to Thank Volunteers

Stomping Grounds

303 Welch Ave

Ames, Iowa

Tuesday, October 14:

Carole King will hold several more events:

10:00 AM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Rally

Gentle Student Center

Ellsworth Community College

1100 College Ave.

Iowa Falls, Iowa

1:00 PM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Lunch

Borealis Coffee Shop

316 N. Federal Ave

Mason City, Iowa

3:15 PM

Carol King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Canvass Kickoff Event

Campaign for Change Office

210 E. State St.

Algona, IA

5:00 PM

Carole King to Kick-Off a “Vote Now for Change” Phone Bank

Campaign for Change Office

33 N 12th St.

Fort Dodge, Iowa

8:00 PM

Carole King to Thank Volunteers

Ritual Café

1301 Locust St. #D

Des Moines, Iowa

From the Department of Natural Resources:

DES MOINES – A series of informational meetings to highlight proposed rule changes regarding public lands will be held in October in Des Moines, Dubuque and Spirit Lake. The first is scheduled for Tuesday, Oct. 14th in Des Moines.

The primary intent of changing the rules is to clarify the application procedure, formalize the permit denial process and provide better management of public lands and waters. The proposed rules will also provide for potential penalties associated with the violation of permit conditions or failure to get a permit prior to construction on public lands. The proposed rules also provide for greater enforcement ability by the DNR in cases where private entities have encroached on public land.

Public lands are owned by the citizens of Iowa and include many lakes, 14 rivers, wildlife management areas, state forests and state parks. The proposed rules do not pertain to docks which are covered under a separate chapter of Iowa law and have recently been revised.

“We have been working hard within the department to create rules that are both fair, but also provide us with the safeguards we need to adequately protect the public land owned by Iowa’s citizens,” said Diane Ford-Shivvers, assistant administrator of the DNR’s Conservation and Recreation Division. Ford-Shivvers said the DNR wants the three public meetings to be active discussions on the proposed rules which are scheduled to go into effect next March.

[…]

The three meetings are as follows:

   * Tuesday, Oct. 14th; 6-8 pm at the Des Moines Botanical Center, Walsh Room, 909 Robert D. Ray Drive, Des Moines

   * Thursday, Oct. 23rd; 6-8 pm at EB Lyons Interpretive Center, Mines of Spain State Park, 8991 Bellevue Heights, Dubuque.

   * Monday, Oct. 27th; 6-8 pm at the Dickinson County Community Building, 1602 15th St., in Spirit Lake.

From the Sustainable Funding Coalition:

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including INHF) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund.

So you can make your voice heard on this important issue, this e-mail provides background information on the forums, a list of forum dates & locations, and pre-registration instructions.

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

Ten candidate forums scattered throughout the state provide a chance for citizens and legislators/candidates to discuss this legislation together. Please consider attending the forum nearest you to learn more about this proposal, show your legislators/candidates that Iowans care about conservation funding, and promote passing the needed legislation for this fund during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.

How to pre-register & attend: Find the forum nearest you in the list below and then pre-register at http://conservation-candidate-… NOTE: Pre-registration is critical because individual events may be canceled if pre-registration numbers are low.

October 14 at 7 pm in the Pin Oak Nature Center on HWY 14, south of Chariton.

Wednesday, October 15:

The final presidential debate will be on tv starting at 8 pm.

From the Fairness Fund PAC:

Do you want to elect leaders that promise change, equality, and genuine hope?  This November we have a chance to send a Fair-minded Majority back to the State House to continue to fight for justice and fairness.  Anti-gay groups and candidates are mobilizing for victory this fall – we must be ready to help our friends and allies.  I hope you can join us to show your support for one of our friends and allies!

Please join us on Wednesday, October 15th, for a meet and greet with State Representative Candidate Gretchen Lawyer at the Mars Cafe (2318 University Avenue, Des Moines, Iowa), from 5:30-7:30pm.  Gretchen will be there to answer questions about her vision for Iowa and what she plans to do when elected.  Coffee will be served.  There is a suggested donation of $30.

Gretchen Lawyer is running for State Representative in Iowa District 36. Gretchen Lawyer, a stay-at home-mother of two and a former teacher, is running for office because she believes we need the values of education, community, and hard work represented in the State Legislature, and that by working together we can put those values into action.

Please RSVP to Brad Clark at 515-783-5950.

Thursday, October 16:

Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico: Implications and Strategies for Iowa

This day-long conference begins at 8 a.m. at the Gateway Center in Ames, and will look at new and emerging research findings and pressing needs related to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Among the speakers will be Darrell Brown, chief of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coastal Management Branch who coordinates the EPA’s efforts to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Officials from various state agencies, NGOs and Iowa State researchers will present and participate in panel discussions. Registration begins September 8. Contacts: Cathy Kling, conference coordinator/research, ckling@iastate.edu, (515) 294-5767; or Sandy Clarke, communications/meeting planning, sclarke@iastate.edu, (515) 294-6257. See conference web site: http://www.card.iastate.edu/hy…  This conference is a project of the Leopold Center Policy Initiative with support from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.

Friday, October 17:

Iowa Environmental Council Annual Conference and Meeting–Waters that Unite Us is this year’s annual conference theme. Please mark your calendars and plan to join us for a day of learning and networking. The conference will be held at the Botanical Center in Des Moines, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., with a members meeting following shortly after close of the conference. At the conference we will explore where and how humans are having positive and negative impacts on Iowa waters and some of the ways individuals and communities can participate in solutions. Registration will begin in August. Speakers include Cornelia F. Mutel author of “The Emerald Horizon – The History of Nature in Iowa,” and Cornelia Butler Flora, Director of North Central Regional Center for Rural Development. Visit www.iaenvironment.org for more information in late July.

WILD, WILD Aquatic, & Learning Tree Facilitator Training, October 17-18, Guthrie Center. The Iowa DNR is offering a Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree facilitator training workshop on Friday, October 17th and Saturday, October 18th at the Springbrook Conservation Education Center near Guthrie Center. Anyone who trains teachers, naturalists, youth leaders, or others involved in teaching about the environment in Iowa is invited to attend. Training is FREE (a $50 refundable deposit is required to reserve your space). Stipends for attending and mileage reimbursement are available. Lodging and meals will be provided.  For more information, contact the Aquatic Education Program: 641/747-2200; AquaticEd_Info@dnr.iowa.gov

Survey USA released a new Iowa poll today showing Barack Obama leading John McCain by 54 percent to 41 percent. Obama leads by 9 points among men and by 17 points among women. He also leads 2-1 among the respondents who said they have already voted.

Looking at the Iowa page at pollster.com, you can see that Obama has been at or above 50 percent in ten out of the last 11 Iowa polls. He leads by more than ten points according to the pollster.com average.

Sounds like a great time for McCain to waste half a day in Davenport!

Everyone doing volunteer work needs to remind voters to fill out the whole ballot, not just the oval next to Obama’s name.

I forgot to post this yesterday.

The presiding judge in the trial of Charles Keating, Jr. (central figure in the 1980s savings and loan debacle) was Lance Ito, who later presided over O.J. Simpson’s murder trial. Unfortunately, Ito messed up the jury instructions, allowing Keating to get his conviction overturned on appeal.

I also learned this good trivia from Keating’s wikipedia entry:

In 1985, Keating hired Alan Greenspan as an economic consultant, in an unsuccessful effort to convince an oversight agency to exempt Lincoln Savings from certain regulations. Greenspan delivered a favorable report, writing that Lincoln Savings was “a financially strong institution that presents no foreseeable risk to depositors or the government.” (Greenspan produced similar favorable reports on numerous other banks that also failed soon after.)

Obviously, that was before Greenspan replaced Paul Volcker as head of the Federal Reserve.

Anyone watch the Obama campaign’s documentary on John McCain’s role in the Keating Five scandal? What did you think?  

I was surprised to read in the Des Moines Register that John McCain is coming back to Iowa for a rally in Davenport this Saturday. Event details:

Join John McCain and your Iowa Ticket

for a Road to Victory Rally

Saturday, October 11th

Doors Open at 8:30 am and Program Begins at 10:30 am

River Center, 136 E. 3rd Street

Davenport, IA 52801

The Register quoted McCain staffer Wendy Reimann as saying the candidate is committed to keeping Iowa red and has opened eight more offices here. Sure enough, McCain does have more “victory offices” in Iowa now than he did in August. The campaign site lists offices in Urbandale, Ames, Marshalltown, Waterloo, Marion, Coralville, Davenport, Indianola, Ottumwa, Newton, Mt. Pleasant, Dubuque, Clear Lake, Sioux Center, Sioux City and Council Bluffs.

If you live in one of these communities, I would like to hear a report on the level of activity by staffers or volunteers for McCain. Do you see people out knocking on doors for McCain? Do registered voters seem to be getting phone calls from McCain’s campaign? If you walk by the office, does it look like a lot is going on there? You can post a comment in this thread or e-mail me confidentially (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com).

Sean Quinn of fivethirtyeight.com took a road trip to compare the Obama and McCain field operations in various states, and he wasn’t impressed by the work being done in the McCain offices:

Let’s be clear. We’ve observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn’t like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we’ve now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I’ll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again. […]

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Getting back to the point of this post, nine of the last ten polls in Iowa show Obama at or above 50 percent in Iowa, with a significant lead. I am shocked that McCain would waste half a day campaigning here instead of in a state he must win (such as Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio or Florida). It’s not as if Illinois, just across the river from Davenport, is a swing state either.

I put up a poll after the jump where you can predict the presidential election result in Iowa.

In August I posted some questions about the accuracy of opinion polls on the presidential race. I wondered whether any of the following factors might introduce distortions in the polling:

-the growing number of voters who use only cell phones;

-the practice of polling on weekends (when certain demographic groups are less likely to be at home);

-the varying estimates of the partisan and demographic breakdown of the electorate;

-the enormous disparity in the two campaigns’ ground games (which is even more obvious now than it was in the summer).

Most of the factors I mentioned would lead polls to understate support for Barack Obama. However, some political analysts have also questioned whether polls might be overstating Obama’s support because of the “Bradley effect” (or “Bradley-Wilder effect”), whereby white people tell pollsters they plan to vote for a black candidate but act differently in the voting booth. Here at Bleeding Heartland, American007 has expressed concern about this possibility.

We won’t know how accurate the polls were until November 5, and even then we won’t be able to prove how much of the difference was related to last-minute external events and how much was related to pollsters’ errors in weighting their samples, or respondents lying about their intentions.

However, here are some pieces worth your time if you enjoy this kind of speculation.

The “mystery pollster” Mark Blumenthal doubts there will be a “perfect storm” leading to wildly inaccurate polling, because

the potential polling foibles may work in opposite directions and “cancel each other out.” A return of the Bradley-Wilder effect would work to McCain’s benefit, while an underrepresentation of younger, African American or “cell-phone-only” voters will likely benefit Obama.

Embedded in that piece is a link to a research paper (pdf file) by Daniel J. Hopkins, a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard who analyzed data from 133 gubernatorial and Senate elections from 1989 to 2006. He found a Bradley effect in the early 1990s but no evidence that it still existed in more recent elections. If you don’t want to download the whole file, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium summarized Hopkins’ findings in this post on “The disappearing Bradley effect.”

Sam Wang looked at the evidence about cell phone users here and believes this factor is probably only understating Obama’s support by about 1 percent.

But Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com compared the McCain-Obama numbers in many polls and found that Obama does 2 to 3 percent better in surveys by pollsters that call cell phone numbers in addition to landlines.

Silver is not concerned about the Bradley effect after analyzing the primary results. Obama did better than his pre-election polling numbers in more states than he underperformed.

I wonder whether the kind of person who would lie to a pollster about being willing to vote for a black candidate is more likely to vote in a general election than in a Democratic primary. That said, I do find Hopkins’ analysis persuasive, so I have decided not to worry about the Bradley effect either.

I’m not a pollster or a statistician, but my hunch is that the greatest potential for pollster error is in the assumptions made about relative turnout by certain demographic groups. Should we assume the proportion of Democrats, blacks and young voters will be about the same as 2004, or should we assume higher turnout in those groups? Being wrong in one direction or another could significantly skew the results, especially in states with large black populations.

The Research 2000 tracking poll for Daily Kos is assuming a higher proportion of Democrats in the electorate than Gallup and Rasmussen, for instance. I assume Democrats will increase their share of the electorate because of the trends in voter registration over the past year as well as the enthusiasm gap. However, Jerome Armstrong is among the skeptics who think the partisan turnout will look very much like 2004.

I would question any poll that assumes African-American voters will make up the same proportion of the electorate this year as they did in 2004, especially in states where Obama has a massive voter turnout operation and John Kerry did not compete (such as North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri). Even in Georgia, where Obama has significantly reduced staff since the summer, we can expect to see much higher black turnout if voter registration trends and early voting are any indication.

I am less confident about a surge in young voter turnout, but if that did happen, pre-election polls weighted according to the 2004 figures would understate Obama’s support.

If Latino turnout is higher than in 2004, Obama will benefit because McCain does quite poorly among Latinos, far worse than George Bush did in 2004.

What do you think? Are you counting on polls to be mostly accurate this year, or significantly off the mark in one direction?

I’ll probably have to catch most of tonight’s big event on the replay later. I’ll update this post when I have a chance.

Use this thread to tell us what you thought about how Obama and McCain did in the debate, or to share any opinions about how the presidential campaign is going.

UPDATE: noneed4thneed is liveblogging the debate on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/commoniowan

SECOND UPDATE: I saw only a few minutes of the debate live, and I’ll have more to say after I watch the rerun.

The snap polls are giving it to Obama:

Update [2008-10-7 23:7:30 by Todd Beeton]:CNN’s snap poll: Obama won 54%-30%. Also, Obama’s favorables went up a net of 8%, McCain’s were UNCHANGED. Wow.

Update [2008-10-7 23:13:28 by Todd Beeton]:From Jonathan in the earlier thread: More actual results… CBS polling of undecided voters gave Obama the win by a 39 percent to 27 percent margin, with another 35 percent rating the debate a tie. Another wasted opportunity for the McCain campaign.

GQR focus group of undecideds split 42 percent for Obama at the end versus 24 percent for McCain.

More details on that CBS poll:

Forty percent of the 516 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight’s winner; 26 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.

After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 55 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 48 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.

Before the debate, 59 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 33 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 44 percent thought so afterwards.

There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 58 percent after the debate. But 77 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 83 percent thought so afterwards.

FINAL UPDATE: The debate was not that interesting. The format was bad, the selection of questions was mediocre, and Brokaw was a lousy moderator. Jim Lehrer did a much better job of facilitating exchanges between the candidates.

Having watched the whole thing, I can see why the snap polls favored Obama. It’s not that McCain made any big mistake (though referring to Obama as “that one” was not classy), it’s just that his answers were often meandering and less on point than Obama’s.

The debates were not Obama’s best department during the primaries, but he was solid tonight. He briefly summarized his policy proposals well. He seems very comfortable and not easily rattled. He had to go first in answering that somewhat odd final question (What don’t you know and how will you learn it?), and he managed to come up with a decent joke and a segue into comfortable turf for him.

Obama also had some effective responses to McCain, like saying there are some things he doesn’t understand about Iraq, such as why we invaded a country that didn’t attack us when we hadn’t finished the job in Afghanistan.

Many of McCain’s claims about Obama during the debate (Obama voted to raise taxes 94 times, Obama got a $3 million earmark for an overhead projector) were false, according to the CBS Fact Check.

I didn’t hear anything from McCain that seemed likely to do harm to Obama, who has been leading all the latest national polls and many of the key swing state polls. He currently wins according to nearly 90 percent of the 10,000 vote projections at fivethirtyeight.com.

Tonight Barack Obama and John McCain will debate for the second time. If you were frustrated over the summer that Obama always seemed to be in reaction mode against Republican smears, you’ve got to be happy about the way the campaign is going now.

McCain isn’t leading Obama in a single state that went for John Kerry in 2004, and he has trailed in multiple polls in Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Obama is making it close in Missouri and Indiana as well. McCain and the Republican National Committee are working frantically to build up field operations in states where Obama’s staff and volunteers have worked for months. For instance, as McCain moves staff into Virginia, Obama has approximately 40 field offices open there.

Also in the swing states, the Obama campaign is sending out direct-mail pieces that attack McCain’s health care plan. That dovetails with television commercials and volunteer canvasses that focus voters’ attention on the health care issue.

On Monday, Obama’s campaign opened a new front of a attack by releasing a short documentary about “Keating Economics,” which recounts McCain’s role in the Keating Five scandal of the 1980s. You can watch it here or at www.keatingeconomics.com:

I am old enough to remember the Keating Five scandal. It was a big deal.

The mainstream media have been strangely quiet about that part of McCain’s biography, given the banking sector’s current problems.

Will the Keating Five come up in tonight’s debate? I have no idea. McCain and Sarah Palin have been trying to change the subject, taking Obama’s words out of context and falsely accusing him of “palling around with terrorists.”

Trivia question: without using google or wikipedia, can anyone tell me who the judge was in the Keating Five trial? (CORRECTION: I meant to write “the trial of Charles Keating.” The Keating Five senators were never tried.)

I will give the answer tomorrow.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall posted an amusing note from a reader regarding the mainstream media’s handling of the Keating Five:

I saw this on CNN early this morning. John Roberts was talking about the smear campaign, trying to do the equivalency dance, and actually said (I’m paraphrasing) “Obama is trying to tie McCain to the Keating Five”. Now, maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t that like saying John Lennon was “tied” to the Beatles? He was a Beatle! John McCain WAS one of the Keating Five.

I’m seeing other reporters do this too.

Post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if I’ve left out anything important.

Tuesday, October 7:

The second presidential debate will be held in a town-hall style, moderated by Tom Brokaw at Belmont University, Nashville, Tennessee. Tune in at 8 pm central time. I’ll have a thread up here where people can share their thoughts and reactions to the debate.

The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized six debate-watching parties, in Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Des Moines, Iowa City and Mason City. Details for all those events are after the jump.

Rob Hubler is holding a Plymouth County Office Open House at 5:00 pm, 27 Central Ave Northwest, Le Mars.

From Becky Greenwald’s campaign:

Please join First Lady Mari Culver & Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-at large) for a Women’s Reception to benefit Becky Greenwald

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

5:30 PM Pre-Reception

6:00 PM General Reception

at the home of Toni Urban, 214 Foster Drive, Des Moines, IA

Contribution Levels:

Host:  $1,000  Sponsor:  $500    Friend:  $250    Supporter:  $100

(Host, Sponsor and Friend levels include admission to pre-reception and photo opportunity with Rep. Herseth-Sandlin)

General Admission: $30

To RSVP or for further information, please contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.  

There will be a Sustainable Funding Coalition candidate forum at 6:30 pm in Sioux City at the Long Lines Family Rec Center, 401 Gordon Drive, South entrance, 3rd floor. Background:

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including INHF) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund.

So you can make your voice heard on this important issue, this e-mail provides background information on the forums, a list of forum dates & locations, and pre-registration instructions.

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

About the forums

Ten candidate forums scattered throughout the state provide a chance for citizens and legislators/candidates to discuss this legislation together. Please consider attending the forum nearest you to learn more about this proposal, show your legislators/candidates that Iowans care about conservation funding, and promote passing the needed legislation for this fund during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.

How to pre-register & attend: Find the forum nearest you in the list below and then pre-register at http://conservation-candidate-… NOTE: Pre-registration is critical because individual events may be canceled if pre-registration numbers are low.

Wednesday, October 8:

There are two Sustainable Funding Coalition candidate forums (see above for background on these events). One is in Atlantic at 6:30 pm in the Cass County Community Center (805 W 10th St). The other is in Des Moines at 6:30 pm at the Izaak Walton League – (4343 George Flagg Pkwy).

One Iowa is holding its monthly happy hour:

Have you ordered your tickets for Dixie’s Tupperware Party? $40 gets a ticket, a free drink during the show, and access to an exclusive after party. Order your tickets online now! We’ll have your tickets at the door. More details on the show below.

Before the event, join One Iowa for this month’s happy hour. Featuring free appetizers, cash bar, and a chance to mingle with other LGBTA professionals.

Wednesday, October 8

5:00 PM-7:00 PM

Centro

1007 Locust St.,

Des Moines, IA 50309

RSVP: http://eqfed.org/oneiowa/event…

Make it an evening and join us afterwards for Dixie’s Tupperware Party at the Civic Center of Greater Des Moines. We have arranged a special deal with the Civic Center that includes an exclusive after party! Limited space available — order your tickets online today.

Thursday, October 9:

Rob Hubler will attend a Cultural Diversity Meeting at 2:30 pm in the Denison Municipal Utilities Building, Denison.

Friday, October 10:

There will be another radio debate between Becky Greenwald and Tom Latham on KGLO radio in Mason City, from 10:00am – 11:30am.

Saturday, October 11:

Rob Hubler will attend the Onawa Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum at 2 p.m. in the Onawa Public Library.

Hubler will attend the Sac County Democrats Fall Picnic at 5:30 pm.

Register now to attend the Quad Cities Earth Charter Summit on Saturday, October 11, from 8 am to 4 pm, at the River Center in downtown Davenport. This year’s event will give you many opportunities to explore facts and opportunities for better living on planet Earth. You will leave with hope for the future and energy to make a difference. In addition to presentations and displays by local groups, there will be several speakers including, Colin Beavan, “No Impact Man” – who has been featured in media on programs as diverse as NPR news and “Good Morning America.” Colin’s topic will be “Does Our Happiness Have to Cost the Planet?” The keynote speaker in the morning will be well-known University of Iowa professor Dr. Jerry Schnoor to discuss the Global Climate Crisis. Cost for the day is just $20 per person and includes an earth friendly lunch. For more details and to download a registration brochure go to www.qcearthcharter.org  or contact lbellomy@chmiowa.org.

Sunday, October 12:

Becky Greenwald will be at the Covered Bridge Parade from 1pm – 3pm in Winterset, 7th Ave. and Husky Drive.

Greenwald will attend the Hardin County Democratic Fundraiser from 5pm – 7pm at the American Legion Building, 709 S. Oak Street in Iowa Falls.

Join Whiterock Conservancy’s land stewardship crew in collecting prairie and savanna seeds for use in restoration projects. Learn to identify grassland plant species, learn their habitats, and assist in collecting the seeds for the future. Join the collection crew just east of Coon Rapids. Help collect today so that we may plant tomorrow. Contact WRC’s ecologist, Elizabeth Hill to sign up for prairie seed collection forays: elizabeth@whiterockconservancy.org.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival is opening:

“America’s Lost Landscape; The Tallgrass Prairie” is the first of seven films being screened as part of the new Iowa City Environmental Film Festival. The film will be shown Sunday, October 12 at 2:00 PM at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A.

Connie Mutel, local resident and author of The Emerald Horizon, The History of Nature in Iowa , will lead a discussion following the film. The film is hosted by Citizens for Our Land Our Water Our Future. ( www.landwaterfuture.org)

This film tells the rich and complex story of one of the most astonishing alterations of nature in human history.  “Examines the record of human struggle, triumph and defeat that prairie history exemplifies.   IDA’s Pare Lorentz award citation.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival was developed in collaboration with non-profit environmental groups throughout the region. Films will be screened once a month at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A. Screenings are free and open to the public and include discussions with local advocates and experts.

For more information on this and upcoming films go to:

www.EnvironmentalFilmsIC.com

or

info@environmentalfilmsic.com

I heard Connie Mutel speak about her new book at the annual meeting of 1000 Friends of Iowa in August. I highly recommend her presentation.

Monday, October 13:

Rob Hubler will speak to the Sioux City Downtown Rotary Club, beginning at 11:45 am.

Governor Chet Culver will attend a reception to raise money for Becky Greenwald’s campaign at the home of Marcia and Rick Wanamaker, 710 Southfork Drive in Waukee, at 5:30 pm. For more details or to RSVP, contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.

Tuesday, October 14:

What Changed?

After the outbreak of the financial crisis, one presidential debate (polling hasn't quite caught up to the VP debate) and a week of Sarah Palin public humiliation, the national map is looking much, much better for Obama.

EV rich states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota (47 EV) move from “toss-up” to lean Obama. Montana and Louisiana (12 EV), move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”. West Virginia, which had been flirting with the “toss-up” category, moves back into “lean McCain”.The toss-up states remain roughly the same otherwise, although it seems one could safely move some around. Obama hasn't led in Missouri since polling began, likewise for McCain in Colorado. 

Nationally, the trend moves from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”. Obama now stands at his best position since the campaign began, 8 points over McCain in the poll average–50-42.

Where they stand:

Obama: Not much to say this week. It's all good news. If I were him, I'd start picking out furniture for the Oval Office and what tie to wear on inaguration day.

His only bad news isn't that unexpected. Montana and Louisiana, which were little more than icing on the cake, slip comfortably back into McCain territory.

McCain: Titanic, meet iceberg. This has to be McCain's worst week in this campaign to date. The only ray of hope is that McCain as a candidate thrives when his back is against the wall. However, he needs a major “Hail Mary” to get him out of this slump, and honestly, I'm not sure what that could be at this point.

His only bright spot is the potential that the financial crisis will be bumped from the headlines by foreign conflict or terrorism. Either that, or he could pull Osama Bin Laden out of a hat on prime-time. 

According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 96.2%  of the last 1000 simulations.

If the election were held today, and  every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a landslide–333-205 EV.

Courtesy of Daily Kos user kdoug:

Barack Obama’s campaign is already running television ads that make the case against John McCain on health care.

Today they will send volunteers out knocking on doors in ten Iowa cities to “talk about the differences between the Obama plan to make health care affordable and the McCain plan to tax employees’ health benefits.”

SUNDAY: Obama Iowa Campaign for Change to Hold “Health Care Canvasses” Across Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa – On Sunday, October 5th, 2008, the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change will hold “health care canvasses” across the state to talk directly to Iowans about the choice they face this election when it comes to health care.  Senator Obama has outlined a detailed plan to stand up to the big drug and insurance companies and make quality, affordable health care available to every American. His plan lowers premiums by up to $2,500 per family per year and reduces costs for business and their workers.

In contrast, Senator McCain’s plan will tax the health benefits that workers receive from their employers for the first time in history.  His plan will make it more likely that your employer drops your health care plan because of rising costs. Independent analyses show that employers will drop at least 20 million people from coverage and force them to seek insurance in the individual market, where costs are higher, quality is lower, and coverage more uncertain.

“Affordable health care is one of the most important issues facing Iowa working families,” said Jackie Norris, Iowa State Director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.  “There is an enormous difference between the two candidates when it comes to health care.  Senator Obama has a detailed plan to cover every American and lower costs for families by $2,500.  This is in stark contrast to Senator McCain’s radical plan, which will do nothing to reduce the number of uninsured and will tax health care benefits for the first time in history. Iowans can’t afford four more years of health care policies that leave families at the mercy of insurance companies.”

The details of the canvasses are after the jump.

I think it’s smart for the Obama campaign to be pushing this point about McCain wanting to tax health care benefits, but don’t imagine that this is the only thing wrong with McCain’s health care plan.

Elizabeth Edwards made a strong case against other aspects of McCain’s plan this spring (see also this article about her speech to the annual meeting of the Association of Health Care Journalists). One of the biggest problems with McCain’s plan is that insurers could continue to exclude people with pre-existing conditions, including cancer survivors like McCain and Elizabeth Edwards.

Whether or not you canvass today, you may want to bring up these points as well as the tax issue if you talk with undecided voters about the difference between Obama and McCain on health care reform.

UPDATE: We were out today, but the Obama volunteers in Windsor Heights left a “vote early for change” door-hanger at our house. Thanks, I will!

The snap polls suggested Joe Biden won last night’s debate with Sarah Palin (which hasn’t stopped conservative swooning over the winking governor).

In less than 24 hours, the Obama campaign had a television commercial ready that featured one of my favorite moments from the debate:

A simple explanation and great one-liner from Biden on an important issue.

Meanwhile, John McCain’s campaign today contradicted Palin’s statement on bankruptcy law changes–among very few comments she made about bankruptcy before changing the subject to her record on energy policy.

Your Palin comedy of the day is adennak’s Sarah Palin debate flow chart.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign released a second ad on the same theme today.

The Iowa Democratic Party released the sixth video in its “McCain vs. Iowa” series today, focusing on McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies.

It begins with a clip of McCain from last week’s presidential debate, affirming that he would end ethanol subsidies. The video goes on to show how this stand puts McCain at odds with prominent Iowa Republicans and on the side of big oil companies.

After the jump you can read the script of this video as well as an IDP release providing background information on this issue.

You can view previous installments of the “McCain vs. Iowa” videos here:

http://www.mccainvsiowa.com/

I don’t know whether I’ll be online later this evening, but use this thread to discuss tonight’s big debate.

It seems that expectations for Sarah Palin couldn’t possibly be lower. How do you think Joe Biden should handle this? I think he needs to ignore any gaffes she makes. Let the media handle that. Biden should focus on promoting Obama’s policies and attacking John McCain.

Note to conspiracy theorists: this diary by ipsos suggests it would not be easy for Palin to get away with wearing an earpiece during tonight’s debate.

I still believe George Bush was wired during his first debate with John Kerry in 2004.

UPDATE: For entertainment value, it’s hard to beat TPM’S Ultimate Sarah Palin Video Guide.

POST-DEBATE THOUGHTS; Palin was smart to look right into the camera almost the whole time she was speaking. There weren’t any deer in the headlights moments, but on several occasions she transparently sidestepped the question and plugged into some programmed response full of buzzwords. I have no idea how it’s going to play with relatively uninformed voters, but I would hope that they could see past her repetition of certain phrases. I also couldn’t believe she kept winking at the camera!

Biden didn’t make any mistakes as far as I could see, other than looking too much at Gwen Ifill and not enough at the camera. However, he did look at the camera more during the second half of the debate, which was good.

On several answers he was devastating, pointing out the contrasts between Obama and McCain. I liked that he kept bringing the focus back to economic issues. I liked how he repeated that McCain was wrong about the war in Iraq being easy. I loved how he repeated that we spend more every three weeks on combat operations in Iraq than we have in six and a half years in Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden has been. It was great the way he put the lie to McCain’s “maverick” image, showing that he hasn’t been a maverick on any of the issues important to Americans, like health care and education.

Although Biden’s not flashy, I felt he turned in a very solid performance tonight. I would be surprised if the snap polls show Palin winning. I know I’m not her target audience, but I felt she looked and sounded programmed. It seems like the people already supporting McCain would love her, but I’m not sure how she played with undecided voters and independents.

What was your favorite Biden moment? I loved when he talked about McCain’s flawed health care plan being “the ultimate bridge to nowhere.”

Last night the Senate passed a bailout bill that was somewhat different from the version the House rejected on Monday. The Senate vote was 74-25 (roll call here), with Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin both voting in favor.

Last week Harkin had spoken out against the original bailout proposal, so obviously he was satisfied with the changes made. (UPDATE: Harkin’s statement explaining his vote is after the jump.)

Both Barack Obama and John McCain voted for the bailout last night. Today, Obama made the economy the centerpiece of a campaign speech in Michigan. Click here to read the speech and watch video clips.

Congressional candidate Becky Greenwald, who said on Monday that she would have opposed the House version of the bailout, issued a statement urging Tom Latham to support the Senate version when it comes back to the House:

“I strongly encourage Tom Latham to support this new version of the financial rescue bill. The Senate version of the bill integrated constructive changes including temporarily raising the FDIC insurance caps, renewable energy tax credits and fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax to exempt middle-income taxpayers. These provisions go a long way to support working families in the 4th District, who were forgotten in the original bill.  

“I still think more needs to be done to address the underlying problem of keeping families in their homes, but it is clear by the impending unavailability of credit, we need to take action now. I am encouraged by the modifications to this bill. I hope the House will embrace the modified bill. I encourage Tom Latham to vote in favor of this bill and take this important step in addressing our financial crisis.”

Congressional candidate Rob Hubler, who said on Monday that he would have voted for the bailout in the House, posted this statement on the front page of his website:

“The failed economic policies of the Bush administration, supported consistently by Steve King, combined with the lack of common-sense regulations and oversight by Congress has led us to this financial train-wreck.

“Six years ago, the Bush administration sought authorization to use military force to invade Iraq.  We acted too quickly and became mired down in war.  Today, it is asking for authorization to use financial force in the market place.  We must not make the mistake of acting too quickly without enough information, and we must address the problems of Main Street as well as Wall Street.  The revised proposal includes subsidies to support the production of ethanol and wind energy, which will be helpful to Iowa’s economy.

“By raising the insurance level from $100,000 to $250,000 for savings accounts, we will help small-town bankers survive the current financial crisis.  If the revised version of the rescue package provides that taxpayers will be paid back every dime of the billions it will take to avert an extended recession and gets money to people on Main Street, I would reluctantly vote in favor of the legislation in order to stabilize the economy so that families and businesses on Main Street are not further affected.  I am encouraged that both Senators Obama and McCain are now working toward a solution, while Steve King is still pushing failed policies, such as eliminating the capital gains taxes which favor wealthy Wall Street speculators.  Main Street doesn’t have any capital gains to pay taxes on right now.

“If I am elected to Congress. I will be a strong voice in favor of regulatory measures and vigilant oversight-unlike Steve King-to see that checks and balances are put back in place so that we never have to experience this kind of calamity again.”

Speaking of Steve King, he made news yesterday during a talk radio show. He argued that McCain was right to say the fundamentals of our economy are strong. I didn’t watch Keith Olbermann’s Countdown show last night, but apparently King earned the title of third-worst person in the world for the day.

I haven’t had a chance to read up on the specific improvements made in the Senate bailout bill. I am skeptical that this will solve the problems in the banking sector, however. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin issued this statement explaining his opposition:

“I will oppose the Wall Street bailout plan because though well intentioned, and certainly much improved over the administration’s original proposal, it remains deeply flawed. It fails to offset the cost of the plan, leaving taxpayers to bear the burden of serious lapses of judgment by private financial institutions, their regulators, and the enablers in Washington who paved the way for this catastrophe by removing the safeguards that had protected consumers and the economy since the great depression. The bailout legislation also fails to reform the flawed regulatory structure that permitted this crisis to arise in the first place. And it doesn’t do enough to address the root cause of the credit market collapse, namely the housing crisis. Taxpayers deserve a plan that puts their concerns ahead of those who got us into this mess.”

-Senator Russ Feingold, October 1, 2008

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich expects the economy to continue to worsen with or without the bailout.

The economist/blogger Bonndad wrote a piece analyzing the various bailout proposals. He concluded, “As far as I have seen, no one has offered any solution to the credit crunch that makes any sense. ”

This is an open thread for any comments related to the economy or the bailout proposals.

By now we’ve had a month to be scared by Sarah Palin’s ignorance and unpreparedness for the vice presidency. For instance, did you know that this person who could be appointing Supreme Court judges as early as next year is unable to name a single Supreme Court ruling other than Roe v Wade?

Fortunately, Palin provides some comic relief from time to time. I’m not talking about Tina Fey’s impressions on Saturday Night Live, I’m talking about the unintentional comedy that emerges when Palin goes off script.

Here’s Palin answering Katie Couric’s question about which newspapers or magazines she has read regularly in the past (hat tip to Hilzoy at the Political Animal blog):

Comedy gold. The Saturday Night Live writing team couldn’t top that.

Steve Benen, who also blogs at Political Animal, highlighted this gem. Apparently Palin got a big laugh from a Republican crowd in Ohio by saying that she’s been hearing about Joe Biden’s speeches since she was in the second grade. After the event, this exchange between Couric and Palin took place:

   Couric: You made a funny comment, you’ve said you have been listening to Joe Biden’s speeches since you were in second grade.

   Palin: It’s been since like ’72, yah.

   Couric: You have a 72-year-old running mate, is that kind of a risky thing to say, insinuating that Joe Biden’s been around awhile?

   Palin: Oh no, it’s nothing negative at all. He’s got a lot of experience and just stating the fact there, that we’ve been hearing his speeches for all these years. So he’s got a tremendous amount of experience and, you know, I’m the new energy, the new face, the new ideas and he’s got the experience based on many many years in the Senate and voters are gonna have a choice there of what it is that they want in these next four years.

Benen points out the obvious:

New energy and new ideas vs. many years in the Senate. Voters, Palin said, are going to have to choose between the two.

She is aware of the dynamic surrounding the two presidential candidates, isn’t she?

I always thought Palin was a poor choice of running mate for McCain, but she is turning out to be even worse than I expected.

By the way, Democracy for America is organizing debate-watching parties for the Palin-Biden matchup tomorrow night. Click here to find one in your area.

You would think that John McCain would realize Iowa is a lost cause for him. George Bush won the state by about 10,000 votes (out of 1.5 million cast) in 2004, when registered Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats. Now Iowa has 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Moreover, five separate polls in the past month have shown Barack Obama above the 50 percent mark in Iowa and leading McCain by at least 10 points. Only the Big Ten Battleground poll showed this state tied.

I figured that the recent McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids was the last Iowans would see of the Republican ticket this year.

However, McCain is still running television ads in Iowa, and to my surprise, McCain visited Des Moines yesterday. Several Republicans quoted in this story by the Associated Press insist that the race is still close enough for McCain to win Iowa. I have my doubts, but if he wants to waste time and money here, that’s fine by me.

While McCain was in Des Moines, he met with the Register’s editorial board. Click here to watch video from that interview.

The same day, Governor Chet Culver held a press conference in Des Moines to chastise McCain for opposing ethanol subsidies. A press release from Barack Obama’s campaign is after the jump.

I believe that McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies is the main reason he underperforms in rural Iowa (along with the fact that he skipped the caucuses in 2000 and 2008).

I would still like to hear from Bleeding Heartland readers regarding McCain’s field offices in Iowa. Are they still up and running in your area? Do they seem empty or focused on other Republican candidates? The McCain office in Iowa City was reportedly abandoned not long ago. Please post a comment in this thread, or e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

Another strong and presidential-looking commercial from Barack Obama:

Although I worry again about whether people will sit through a two-minute ad, I think he is in good form here. The message is clear and to the point. The Republicans are hitting Obama with tax-and-spend ads all over the place, so I think it’s helpful for him to explain what’s in his economic plan and that he won’t raise taxes on anyone making less than $250,000 per year.

Also, the relatively intimate setting of Obama speaking directly to the camera is a good antidote to the Republican spin about him being a hyped-up celebrity. Don’t know where this is running.

I also love this new anti-McCain ad called “Parachute,” which Obama is running on national cable networks:

We almost never watch television. Is anyone still seeing Obama or McCain ads in Iowa (I mean other than on national cable news networks)?  

Great ad, “Zero,” released by Barack Obama’s campaign less than 12 hours after the presidential debate:

The Democratic political blogs seemed to think Obama’s best moment of the debate was when he pounded John McCain on being wrong about Iraq.

I liked that clip, but I think this ad is very smart, because the economy is a bigger issue for most voters than Iraq.

At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver analyzes last night’s snap polls and explains why the snap polls and focus groups showed an advantage to Obama:

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.

[…]

McCain’s essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience — is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on “understanding your needs and problems” before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on “prepared to be president” to a +21.

Click the link, because Silver’s piece is worth your time.

Speaking of the pundits who were McCain’s target audience, the Des Moines Register’s David Yepsen thought McCain won the debate.  

Via Talking Points Memo. It’s so nice to have a running mate you don’t have to hide from the media:

Biden has a reputation for being gaffe-prone, but when he’s on, he is on. Crushes McCain on Iraq, the surge, his record on fighting terrorism and supporting veterans.

Biden’s last sentence is the most important: “I think John was on his strongest turf today, and he lost and I think it’s gonna be fatal.”

I’ve been hoping for weeks that Barack Obama would find some way to get under John McCain’s skin during the first presidential debate. In less than an hour we’ll see what he’s got.

I have to believe Obama walks onto the stage with a huge psychological advantage. McCain’s ridiculous stunts this week failed to achieve any favorable outcomes:

1. He failed to demonstrate any ability to handle a crisis. Instead, he looked like an uninformed hothead, saying he would fire the head of the Securities Exchange Commission, when the president has no such authority. Later in the week, he admitted that he had not read Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan, even though it’s only three pages long.

2. He failed to deliver a deal on the bailout. On the contrary, it looks like McCain’s presence in Washington was detrimental to the negotiations.

3. He backed down from his promise not to attend the first presidential debate unless a bailout deal had been reached. One thing I’ve learned from parenting is never make a threat if you are not willing to follow through.

4. He failed to delay the vice-presidential debate by getting the first presidential debate rescheduled for October 2.

5. Tracking polls and key state polls are not moving in McCain direction. Instead, Obama now has a five-point lead in the tracking poll average, his largest of the campaign.

Debating is not Obama’s strong suit, but McCain has to be feeling more pressure tonight after his disastrous week.

I’ll watch the repeat later tonight. Meanwhile, this is an open thread for any comments related to the debate, the bailout, or the state of the presidential campaign now.

UPDATE: I caught part of the first half. McCain landed a punch regarding Bush’s terrible energy bill. Ouch. Of course Obama can’t say the truth, which is that he (and other good Democrats such as Tom Harkin) voted for a bad energy bill because it had subsidies for corn-based ethanol and coal.

However, then McCain made a big deal out of being for constructing a bunch of new nuclear power plants. Are Americans for more nuclear power? I’m not sure.

SECOND UPDATE: Listening to most of the second half on the radio, I feel Obama has done very well. However, I regret that McCain hasn’t made any big gaffes or unpresidential comments, from my perspective. I think he is wrong about a lot of things, but I doubt that a typical uninformed voter would see through his rhetoric.

I don’t like the way McCain keeps saying Obama is naive, doesn’t get it, etc. That seems like a talking point the right-wing noise machine could hammer mercilessly for days. It’s of course false, but when has that stopped them before?

On the plus side, over at Daily Kos georgia10 posted this:

If you’re watching the debate on CNN, they have a “dial” reaction chart on the bottom of the screen.  If the audience likes what the candidate is saying, they dial up and the lines go up. If they don’t, they dial down and the numbers tank.

Generally speaking, independents (and obviously Democrats) are registering far more positives for Obama than McCain.  Indeed, at certain points, the numbers among indys have taken a nosedive when McCain sets forth Bush’s his policy proposals.

I also thought Obama did a great job of repeatedly pointing out how the Bush administration dropped the ball on getting Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan because we’ve been focused on Iraq.

THIRD UPDATE: I missed Obama’s closing statement but caught part of McCain’s. Again, I am concerned that he was able to keep on talking about his record of bipartisanship and/or opposing his own party when necessary. I feel that makes it hard for Obama to characterize McCain as George Bush’s third term.

I don’t think Obama hurt himself tonight at all, but I am afraid McCain may have helped himself.

On the other hand, since Obama is leading, perhaps it’s good enough for him to have turned in a solid performance with no big mistakes.

Let’s hope the vice-presidential debate shines a spotlight on McCain’s habit of making rash decisions without thinking things through.

FOURTH UPDATE: CBS snap poll of uncommitted voters finds 40 percent think Obama won, 38 percent think it was a tie, and 22 percent think McCain won.

Obama won the CNN snap poll as well. I was particularly struck by the some of the subgroups: huge gender gap, with McCain doing slightly better among men but Obama crushing McCain by nearly 30 18 points among women. Amazingly, CNN respondents over 50 thought Obama won by a 48-40 margin. That’s McCain’s strongest age group.

FIFTH UPDATE: Daily Kos user Eileen B pointed me toward this clip. When Obama makes fun of McCain for not knowing who the leader of Spain was, McCain says, “Horsesh*t.”

I was listening on the radio and didn’t catch this. Will the media pick it up?

Or was McCain saying, “Of course?”

I had a doctor’s appointment this morning, and they had the CBS Early Show on in the waiting room. One of the anchors was down in Oxford, Mississippi on the Ole Miss campus, where the first presidential debate is scheduled to be held tonight.

Behind him a crowd of mostly white students cheered and waved “Change We Need” signs.

That’s right, a bunch of white kids cheered for a black presidential nominee on the Ole Miss campus, where a building still has bullet marks from the violence that accompanied black student James Meredith’s enrollment in 1962.

It’s a great day for this country, even if John McCain decides not to show up to debate Barack Obama.

Granny Doc has more on this from the perspective of someone who remembers the civil rights unrest.

A few weeks ago I read that Ron Paul was not endorsing any presidential candidate but was urging his supporters to vote for the third-party candidate of their choice–anyone but Barack Obama or John McCain.

However, this week Paul endorsed Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin. The Wall Street Journal blog pointed me toward this letter from Paul to supporters, which contains a bit of a rebuke to Libertarian candidate Bob Barr:

The Libertarian Party Candidate admonished me for “remaining neutral” in the presidential race and not stating whom I will vote for in November.   It’s true; I have done exactly that due to my respect and friendship and support from both the Constitution and Libertarian Party members.  I remain a lifetime member of the Libertarian Party and I’m a ten-term Republican Congressman.  It is not against the law to participate in more then one political party.  Chuck Baldwin has been a friend and was an active supporter in the presidential campaign.

I continue to wish the Libertarian and Constitution Parties well.  The more votes they get, the better.  I have attended Libertarian Party conventions frequently over the years.

In some states, one can be on the ballots of two parties, as they can in New York.  This is good and attacks the monopoly control of politics by Republicans and Democrats.  We need more states to permit this option.  This will be a good project for the Campaign for Liberty, along with the alliance we are building to change the process.

I’ve thought about the unsolicited advice from the Libertarian Party candidate, and he has convinced me to reject my neutral stance in the November election.  I’m supporting Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party candidate.

When you think about what an insiders’ club Congress is, it’s amazing that Paul (still a Republican Congressman from Texas) did not endorse his former colleague Barr, who represented Georgia for many years in the House. Barr has denounced the Republican Party for embracing big government and not insisting that the president abide by the law.

The big question for me is whether Paul’s endorsement of Baldwin will cut into Barr’s support in some of the key swing states. I’ve argued before that Barr could tip Nevada to Obama, but ProgressiveSouth writes that Barr could also be a factor in North Carolina.

Anyone out there know any Ron Paul voters or caucus-goers? Will they settle for McCain, sit out the election or vote for a third-party alternative?

For the record, nine presidential candidates will appear on the Iowa ballot, including Baldwin and Barr.

Well, we're 10 days closer to E-day, so here's an analysis of where the race stands.

What Changed?
The number of “leaner” states has dropped dramatically. Oregon and New Jersey (22 EV together) have moved from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”; Arizona, North and South Dakota, Texas, Arkansas, and South Carolina (74 EV) move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”.

A few states have, however, moved back into toss-up territory.  Minnesota and Pennsylvania moved from “lean Obama” to “toss-up”; Florida, Indiana and North Carolina move out of “lean McCain”. Maine moves from “likely Obama” to “lean Obama”. In a big blow to McCain, West Virginia moves from “likely McCain” to “toss-up” and Louisiana moves from “likely McCain” to “lean McCain”. (More on all this later.)

Nationally, the trend is strongly in favor of Obama. The country as a whole moves from “toss-up” to “lean Obama”, in the wake of polls showing Obama up by as much as 5-8 points over McCain.

However, while this is good news, a disturbing fact remains. If the election were held today, and every state voted exactly as the latest poll suggests, and there were no recounts or lawsuits, the result would be:  a 269-269 tie.

Where they stand:

Obama: Obama has a lot going for him. On a macro level, the continued focus on the national economy only helps him as voters strongly prefer him to McCain on that issue.

On a micro level, I think the best news is in the latest polls out of West Virginia. A poll released by CNN/Time shows McCain over Obama 50-46%, with 4% undecided with a margin of error of 3.5%. This represents a HUGE improvement from polls taken in February which showed Obama in the 30% range. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 13% there in 2004…this is a big shift. It also bodes well for Obama's chances in southern Pennsylvania and Ohio.

If Obama has a problem area, it seems to be in northern states. McCain is in the lead and gaining in New Hampshire and Montana, and is up 10 points from his low in Maine to pull within 10 points there. McCain is also gaining ground in Washington, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

McCain: McCain lost his mojo (pre-suspension). The bloom seems to be off the Palin pick, and the economy hurts his chances more each day.
If there is a silver lining for McCain, it is that he seems to have locked in the base in several states that were looking a little pink. He reversed downward trends in many states, including Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and the Dakotas. He's also starting to pull away in a few places like Montana, Missouri and New Hampshire.

McCain is losing major ground in the Mid-Atlantic States. He has lost ground this week from Pennsylvania to North Carolina–key states if he hopes to win in November.

This time it’s a Marist poll, conducted between September 18 and September 21, showing Barack Obama beating John McCain in Iowa by 51 percent to 41 percent. That makes five polls in the last month showing Obama above 50 percent and with a double-digit lead here.

How do you like not being a swing state anymore?

Remember, people need to vote for Democrats all the way down the ticket. If Obama wins Iowa by 10 points or more, we should be able to win seats in Congress and the state legislature.

John McCain announced that he is suspending his campaign events and wants to delay the first presidential debate, scheduled for Friday, because of the economic crisis. Talking Points Memo has the full text of McCain’s statement.

A few days ago, he was still saying the fundamentals of our economy are strong.

Apparently Barack Obama called McCain this morning

to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement.  The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

Then McCain went public on postponing the first debate. I’m with Chris Bowers: this was a cheap stunt to “upstage Obama after Obama made the first ‘bi-partisan’ move.”

I also agree with Bowers that Obama was foolish to try to minimize the distinction between himself and McCain on this issue. His campaign should be pounding on McCain’s role in deregulating the banking industry, and the fact that McCain surrounds himself with corporate lobbyists.

Anyway, at least the Obama campaign is insisting that “The debate is on.” They should not fall for this maneuver.

Note that it doesn’t cost McCain much to suspend his stump speeches–he doesn’t exactly draw huge crowds, and it’s probably tiring to be on the road every day. I doubt he’ll cut back on his television advertising. CORRECTION: McCain’s spokesperson says he is taking his campaign’s television ads off the air. No word yet on whether the Republican National Committee or 527 groups that support McCain will do the same.

UPDATE: Ben Smith has Obama’s response:

“It’s my belief that this is exactly the time the American people need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be responsible with dealing with this mess,” he said. “In my mind, actually, it’s more important than ever that we present ourselves to the American people and try to describe where we want to take the country and where we wnt to take the economy as well as dealing with some of the issues of foreign policy that were initially the subject of the debate.”

[…]

“Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time,” he says. “It’s not necessary for us to think that we can do only one thing, and suspend everything else.”

SECOND UPDATE: Now CNN says the McCain campaign wants to move the first presidential debate to October 2, when the vice-presidential debate is currently scheduled. So they want to use this crisis as an excuse for delaying the VP debate. I share Hunter’s suspicion that the VP debate might never get rescheduled if the Obama campaign allows it to be delayed.

Meanwhile, Todd Beeton heard on Fox News that “John McCain currently does not plan to attend the debate Friday night but that if a plan is agreed to by Friday, he will.”

I hope Congressional Democrats do not give in to this blackmail. Let Obama show up next to an empty podium at the first debate. Who’d look “ready to lead” then?