The latest Iowa poll conducted by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (the CBS affiliate in Des Moines) shows Clinton leading with 28 percent, Edwards within the margin of error at 26 percent, Obama with 22 percent, and Richardson with 7 percent.

It's a big change from the last Research 2000/KCCI poll, which was in December and showed Edwards and Obama tied at 22 percent, with Tom Vilsack in third place with 12 percent.

Click the link if you want to read the details.

If this poll is accurate, there has been a massive surge in support for Hillary Clinton over the past six months. I don't get that sense, but what are you hearing?

It looks like Richardson's early tv ads have raised his profile in Iowa quite a bit. He only had 1 percent support in the December poll.

In this poll, Obama does slightly better in head-to-head matchups with the Republican front-runners than Edwards, while Edwards does slightly better than Clinton.

I wonder what the likely voter screen is on this poll. In talking to Iowa Democrats who actually participated in the 2004 caucuses (as opposed to people who didn't but claim that they plan to participate in the upcoming caucuses), I have trouble finding Clinton supporters. I really do. I was just talking to a Clinton leaner yesterday, but even she said, without prompting from me, that Clinton has a lot of baggage, and she's just not sure if she could win.

I found the Bush approval numbers from this poll interesting. Approve/disapprove numbers for all respondents are 30/68.

The numbers for Democrats are 8/90.

The numbers for independents are 29/70.

Even among Republicans sampled, Bush's approval was only measured at 56 percent; disapproval was 42 percent. Those are shockingly poor numbers. 

John Edwards has a new campaign website for Iowa, and I found details about these upcoming events there:

Edwards Town Hall Meeting

May 15, 2007 – 11:15 am

Des Moines Central Library

1000 Grand Ave., Des Moines, Iowa

If you plan to attend, go to this page where you will find a link to click to RSVP.

Or, you can RSVP by phone at 515-288-0766.

Update: Polk County Democrats have just sent out an e-mail saying that Tuesday’s town hall meeting is going to focus on “issues important to women.”

Second Update: Edwards campaign press release says the candidate will make “a significant new announcement about the organization and strength of the campaign in Iowa and discuss his detailed plans for improving the lives of women at work and at home.”

In other news, David Bonior, longtime congressman from Michigan who is Edwards’ campaign manager, will be in Dubuque on Thursday:

May 17, 2007 – 5:30 pm

Congressman Bonior will speak at the Dubuque County Democratic Party Hall of Fame Dinner

Happy’s Place

Rockdale Road

Dubuque, IA

If you can attend either of these events, please feel free to put up a diary afterwards. These first-person accounts are often more informative than the media coverage of the event.

John Edwards has put up his first television commercial in Iowa this cycle. The ad uses the same script as an ad his campaign put up in Washington, DC, last week, but it features Iowans speaking.

Noneed4thneed posted a youtube of the ad over at Century of the Common Iowan.

Meanwhile, Essential Estrogen liveblogged a media conference call with Edwards today. Click the link to read how he answered questions about the ad and his stand on Iraq generally.

If you’ve watched the ad, what did you think? I think it’s a good use of his money. Since he has campaigned so much in Iowa before, he has the luxury of not starting his advertising campaign with a biographical spot.

Barack Obama spoke in Iowa City today before a crowd of several thousand. John Deeth liveblogged the event, and you can read all about it here.

If you’ve got a report about this event, or some other campaign appearance by any of the presidential candidates, please consider putting up a diary. Even if you’re not liveblogging or vlogging, it’s still interesting to hear about the stump speeches, the Q and A, and the reactions of the crowd.

I went down to Valley Junction in West Des Moines today, but their Earth Day event was rained out. I did notice that the Edwards supporters were out there talking with lots of people before everyone packed up their tables and tents, though.

Here’s a link to Trippi’s blog post announcing the move.

And here’s a link to a Daily Kos diary with more background and discussion of this hire.

The former Deaniacs I know in Iowa are largely undecided, with some leaning toward Edwards and others leaning toward Obama. I don’t think anyone will make up his or her mind solely based on what Trippi does, but I think the move sends a positive signal about the change Edwards wants to bring to America.

What are your thoughts, and what have you been hearing from the people you know who caucused for Dean in 2004?

I know this is really long for a typical blog post, but this is a column I wrote for Drake’s newspaper today.  I just thought it was an interesting topic you folks might enjoy:

Democratic selection might not be known until national convention

by Patrick Rynard (Columnist)

Issue date: 4/2/07 Section: Opinion

By this time next year, we ought to know who the nominees for president are. The candidates will have slugged it out in the early states, and an early winner will have gained the momentum to sweep the 20-plus states that make up this cycle’s “Super-Duper Tuesday.” Before Valentine’s Day arrives, all but one candidate will have dropped out on either side.

Or at least that’s what the conventional wisdom predicts will happen. I believe we may see a much different, much more exciting nomination. One in which the final outcome isn’t even decided for the Democrats until the national convention come August 25. Which would mean, yes, a major convention floor fight for the presidential nomination – something we haven’t seen since 1968.

UPDATE by Chris (12:05 PM): I just got done watching Sen. and Mrs. Edwards’ press conference.  She looks amazing and is going to be a fighter the rest of her life.  Treatment starts soon for the cancer that is in a rib bone on her right side.  Meanwhile, the campaign goes on and life goes on.  Truly, they are one courageous family.

– – – – – – – –

It looks like Sen. John Edwards and his wife Elizabeth might be headed for another health issue.  If you’ll remember, back in 2004 just a few days before the general election Elizabeth was diagnosed with breast cancer.  After a rigorous course of treatment and recovery, she was diagnosed as healthy.

However, something must be up, as Edwards has scheduled a press conference tomorrow with his wife at 11 AM CDT, according to Ben Smith at the Politico.  Yesterday he canceled a house party in event to be able to make it to an appointment Elizabeth had with her doctor this morning, according to a release issued by the campaign.

I met Elizabeth last year at a bloggers meeting and I also met the Senator himself and I can say they’re both courageous individuals and leaders.  I respect both of them and hope and pray for the best for Elizabeth and their family.

On Tuesday, March 20th, 2007, Senator John Edwards will visit the Biomass Energy Conversion Center (BECON) in Nevada, Iowa.  Edwards will tour the plant and outline his plan to halt global warming and create a new energy economy in our nation.  Following his remarks, Edwards will hold a media availability with reporters.

Iowa Team Features Experienced Caucus and Campaign Staff

Des Moines, Iowa – Building on the momentum from Senator John Edwards’ series of community meetings on health care with Iowa caucus goers last week, the campaign announced today the addition of key staff members in Iowa.  The staff includes veterans of numerous campaigns, who have years of experience working in the caucuses.

“I am proud to have such a strong staff in Iowa to share my vision for America with caucus goers,” said Edwards.  “I plan to campaign hard in Iowa and look forward to talking with Iowans about the big challenges facing our nation and how we can meet them together.”
 

Yesterday, I attended the Community Meeting John Edwards held in Newton. The event was held at the UAW Hall and close to 200 people were there. Check out Iowa for Edwards for video of the event and links to news stories.

Edwards opened by saying that our next president needs real ideas and vision, but more importantly needs to be someone with honesty, openess, decency, and someone we can trust. Edwards showed that he is going to be open about his ideas throughout this campaign saying…

When you to caucus in January of 2008, which I hope is for me, you will know where I stand. Not just on health care, but also Iraq, energy, jobs, and global warming. You will know where I stand.

I got an e-mail from the Edwards campaign today publicizing several events in Iowa this weekend. If you are interested in attending an event in Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Newton, Ottumwa or Burlington, follow me after the jump.

Chris and Drew, could we get a candidate appearance calendar somewhere on this site? I would love to be able to click on a page to find out who is going to be in Iowa this week, where and when they will be speaking.

Strategic Vision has released a new Iowa poll of 600 Republican and 600 Democratic likely caucus-goers.

The Democratic results are being discussed here at MyDD.

Numbers below the fold.

A while back I read an article that mentioned John Edwards being endorsed by a plurality of the chairs of the Democratic Party county committees. I can’t remember where I read this, though, and I can’t seem to find it again.

Does anyone out there have detailed information about which county chairs have endorsed presidential candidates, and whom they have endorsed? I would imagine that so far Edwards and Vilsack have the lion’s share of the endorsements at this level, but I would like to see confirmation of this.

I would also be interested in knowing how many county chairs endorsed presidential candidates in 2004 and which candidates they endorsed, if this information is out there somewhere.

Today, the National Journal released their latest rankings on the Democrats seeking the presidential nomination in 2008.  Here are their rankings:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Bill Richardson

5. Chris Dodd

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Joe Biden

8. Wesley Clark

9. Dennis Kucinich

10. Mike Gravel

Make sure to check out what they have to say about each candidate and the fundraising predictions that they are making.

Let me add a couple of things to the questions or things they are talking about in their descriptions of each candidate.  It seems that they frame Clinton’s problem as one of responsibility or the ability to appear genuine.  Iowa Democrats, in my opinion, are looking for a genuine candidate who is able, ready, and willing to admit mistakes.  John Edwards and Barack Obama easily have that advantage over her — and I’m pretty sure some Iowa Democrats are already holding that against her.

Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder are looking for some staff beyond Nevada to impress them some more and prove that he is everyone’s second choice.  Here’s some nice news that I have heard: former Iowa Democratic Party Field Director Brad Frevert has joined Richardson’s campaign as his go-to guy for Iowa field operations.  Frevert’s an Iowa-boy, and worked with Jesse Harris (who is Vilsack’s field guy), so we know he’s got Iowa field knowledge coming out the wazoo.

They note that Chris Dodd is basically raising lots of money because he’s got a cushy position as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee.  It is true, but he’s also taking leadership on restoring Habeas Corpus.  That’ll give him a little edge with which to hold on to some grassroots activists.

Finally, we get to Vilsack, and this is the question I have to ask: Does the endorsement of Barack Obama by Tom Miller and Mike Fitzgerald really mean anything?  Todd and Ambinder seem to think that’s bad news, as do the folks over at CityView’s Civic Skinny.  Now, maybe because I’m young I might be a bit naive about Iowa politics, but do Miller and Fitzgerald really have that big of a following in Iowa that their endorsement would swing Iowa voters to Obama?  I don’t believe that for one bit, but I guess I have to keep inserting the naive bit just in case.  Both Miller and Fitzgerald have been around in state Democratic politics forever and neither were indebted to Vilsack at all, so I don’t think there was a lot of pressure for Vilsack to lock up their endorsement.

And let’s not forget, Tom Miller endorsed Joe Lieberman in 2004 and Lieberman didn’t even make it to the caucuses.  I’m not saying Obama won’t make it to the caucuses (he will) but Miller seems to endorsed based on how well you’re doing early on in the race, not simply based on issues.

Finally, Joe Biden will be back in the state this weekend (or is supposed to be, but it looks like Sen. Reid might be scheduling a vote for Saturday), so I think we’ll officially be able to gauge Iowan reactions to his campaign after he’s been here as a serious candidate.

Anyway, what’re your thoughts on the rankings?  And if you haven’t already, make sure to vote in the poll on the left side of the page.

Well, ARG has a new Iowa (and New Hampshire) poll out on the 2008 presidential candidates. Remember that their December poll was not consistent with other polls on the Democratic side, presumably because of a different definition of “likely caucus goer.” With the ARG criteria, the Iowa likely caucus goers had Clinton on top in December, like the likely primary voters in other states and nationally, while other pollsters had Edwards on top for likely Iowa caucus goers. With that caveat, it is interesting to see the trends after Obama’s announcement and Clinton’s visit to Iowa. There may be further movement with Obama’s visit to Iowa next week.

ARG, phone interviews of 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, Jan 29 – Feb 1, 07 (Dec. 06), +/- 4%

Clinton 35 (31)

Edwards 18 (20)

Obama  14 (10)

Vilsack 12 (17)

Biden, Clark, and Kucinich had 2% each, and Richardson and Dodd had 1%. 13% were undecided.

There is a gender bias, with 39% of the Iowa women surveyed supporting Clinton, and 30% of the men surveyed supporting Clinton. If only previous caucus goers were counted, Clinton had 29% and Edwards had 25%.

Not a huge change from December, but Clinton and Obama did move up some, and Edwards and Vilsack dropped some. For all of his efforts, Vilsack is going in the wrong direction in his home state. It isn’t just slow recognition of the their governor as presidential material, because Richardson comes out on top with 28% among 2008 candidates in New Mexico.

Identifying likely caucus goers at this stage is a crap shoot, but the trends are interesting.

Does Vilsack have a chance of winning the Iowa caucuses?

Hotline dishes some info about the Edwards campaign.

The highlights:

Advisers Nick Baldick and Caroline McCauly and other Edwards staffers may have more overall NH experience than any other team.

Jennifer O’Malley, who was Edwards’s IA field director in ’03-’04, will serve as his state director this cycle. O’Malley is engaged to Patrick Dillon, who is slated to become Gov. Chet Culver’s chief of staff. Dillon was Culver’s manager and worked on Edwards’s ’03-’04 field and press staffs in IA.

In South Carolina, John Moylan is running the show again, and ex-party executive director Lachlan McIntosh is recruiting field, political and communication staff. Edwards’s communications team is in fighting shape.

Finally, money. We can’t say for sure, because nobody who knows will tell us, but aside from a little bit of cut-in from Sen. Joe Biden’s courtship of the trial bar, the signals emanating from Edwards’s universe suggest he’s on track to beat expectations in the first quarter.