cross-posted at MyDD and Daily Kos

I decided to write this diary when I learned that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each have more than 30 field offices in Iowa.

After January 3, we will see whether campaigns with the most field offices did better in the counties where rivals had field organizers and volunteers working without the visibility of an office.

More information than you probably wanted to know is after the jump.

I have listed the counties in descending order, based on the number of state delegates they will assign on the Democratic side. I took the numbers from this post by Drew Miller, who calculated how many state delegates each Iowa county would contribute to the 2,500 total. [UPDATE: I corrected the delegate totals for a few counties after hearing from Drew Miller.]

I also give the 2004 caucus results for each county. Those numbers come from this table on the Des Moines Register’s website. The results reflect the percentage of county delegates assigned to the various presidential candidates (not the percentage of raw votes each one received in the county).  

John Deeth posted an update on legislative endorsements, along with a helpful chart showing which candidates Iowa Democratic legislators endorsed in 2004, and which counties the legislators represent.

The latest tally is Clinton 19, Obama 18, Biden 14, Edwards 10, Dodd 3 and Richardson 1. 

Deeth's chart also shows who has yet to endorse, and who those legislators backed (if anyone) four years ago. 

I listened to most of the NPR debate this afternoon. Although I am usually more interested in hearing the candidates debate domestic policy, I thought it was good for NPR to go in depth on a few foreign-policy issues. The questions were solid and substantive, and the candidates had to go beyond their usual sound-bite answers on Iran, China and immigration policy.

It’s too bad Richardson couldn’t make it because of a funeral he was attending, because the format probably would have suited him. I have heard him answer questions on immigration, and he makes a strong case on that issue.

I thought Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Biden and Dodd all did pretty well.

If you listened to the debate, what did you think?

Mark Halperin’s post-debate scorecard is here:

http://thepage.time.com/excerp…

When the presidential candidates release plans to deal with important issues, such as education, global warming, or veterans’ affairs, the Des Moines Register more often than not buries the story in the middle pages of the Metro Iowa section.

That is especially true for the second-tier candidates.

Tuesday morning I picked up the Register and saw a photo of Chris Dodd and Joe Biden on the front page of the main section. Wow, that’s unusual. But what do you think the story was about?

Both Dodd, a senator from Connecticut, and Biden, a senator from Delaware, each are hoping to emerge and knock out a front-runner. But both facing an increasing amount of questions about whether they are different enough for voters to tell them apart.

Increasing amount of questions? From whom? I talk to Democratic caucus-goers literally every day, and while I have heard undecided voters praise Dodd and Biden many times, I have never heard anyone express concern that they may not be different enough for voters to tell them apart.

The Register goes on to tell us that Dodd and Biden get along well, charter planes together sometimes, and are “old school” senators. It mentions a recent Saturday Night Live sketch making fun of their similarities and quotes experts suggesting they are political insiders who lack “sex appeal.”

I expect meaningless process stories from most of the national press corps, but couldn’t the Des Moines Register at least pretend to cover the substance of the campaign on the front page?

Haven’t the Register reporters who cover the town-hall meetings and house parties all over this state noticed that caucus-goers want to hear where the candidates stand on the issues?

That is especially the case for the second-tier candidates, because most Iowans are less familiar with their records. Dodd and Biden have plenty to say about how they would govern and what their priorities would be–not that you’d get any idea about that from the article.

I noticed this quote near the bottom of the piece:

Kathy Elsner, a dentist in Des Moines who supports Dodd, said voters should look seriously at people running for president, and not just their campaign style.

Please, Des Moines Register editors, take Elsner’s advice and assign your reporters to compare and contrast the candidates’ proposals for dealing with the issues.

As I've written a couple of posts below, I don't expect Rudy Giuliani to be the GOP nominee. However, I've noticed lately that several Democrats in the race have been going out of their way to take on Rudy.

Joe Biden scored at last week's debate with his joke that every sentence uttered by Rudy has a noun, a verb and 9/11, and his comment that Rudy is the most unqualified person to run for president since George W. Bush. His campaign has been milking these moments in fund-raising e-mails featuring highlights from the debate and outrageous comments made by Rudy. For instance:

As I wrote earlier, we expected another attack from Giuliani's campaign on Friday and they didn't disappoint. On a morning radio show, Rudy Giuliani made the unbelievable claim that Joe Biden has no foreign policy experience.

 

 

Make a contribution to help Joe keep Rudy on the run.

 

Host: You would say Senator Biden doesn't have foreign policy experience?

 

Giuliani: Has he ever been in the State Department? Has he ever been an executive? It's one thing…it's one thing to speak about what you want or even pass laws about it. It's another thing to actually do it. Foreign policy experience to me means being an ambassador, being in the state department. Being a law endorsement official. Dealing with foreign countries.

By now, we've come to expect this kind of blatant nonsense from Giuliani. But even we couldn't believe that just a few hours later, when asked about his comments, he would just outright deny saying it.

 

Giuliani: I didn't, I didn't mention foreign policy. I said Joe Biden fit into the category of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards. And they were all questioned about this at the debate, and he wasn't. Here's, here's here's the situation. They have–in a very strange way–they have never run a city, never run a state, never run a business. They've never run anything.

 

The radio station put out a press release of his first statement. There were video cameras present when he made the second statement. Yet that didn't keep him from just outright denying what he said. CNN captured the flip-flop on “The Situation Room” — you can watch the video here.

Barack Obama has also been mixing it up with Rudy, after Giuliani called Obama's strategy toward Iran naive and irresponsible. Over at Daily Kos, Adam B wrote a diary on the hard-hitting response from a spokesman for the Obama campaign:

http://www.dailykos….

While Rudy Giuliani may embrace Hillary Clinton's policy of not talking and saber rattling towards Iran, Barack Obama knows that policy is not working.  It's time for tough and direct diplomacy with Iran, not lectures from a Mayor who skipped out on the Iraq Study Group to give paid speeches, and who was naive and irresponsible enough to recommend someone with ties to convicted felons for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Kudos to the Obama campaign for calling attention to Rudy's failure to attend meetings of the Iraq Study Group. That issue alone should be enough to sink Giuliani's campaign.

Finally, I can't resist posting this statement Edwards campaign manager David Bonior made a few months back. It calls attention to Rudy's grotesque use of 9/11 imagery to promote himself, even though his administration could have done a lot more to prepare New York City's first responders for a possible attack:

http://www.johnedwar…

John Edwards for President National Campaign Manager Congressman David Bonior released the following statement in response to former Mayor Rudy Giuliani's comments that he was at ground zero in New York City “as often, if not more” than rescue workers. 

 

“Evidently, Rudy Giuliani has taken a break from reality. It is outrageous for Giuliani to suggest, in any way, shape or form, that he did more at ground zero or spent more time there than the brave first responders who worked tirelessly around the clock for many months during the rescue and recovery operation. It seems that Giuliani is determined to take every opportunity to exploit the memory of 9/11 for political gain, rather than honor the incredible sacrifices of our first responders. Enough is enough.

 

“Mayor Giuliani should start answering the serious questions of why firefighters and other first responders didn't have proper equipment and support. The 9/11 Commission and National Institute of Standards & Technology reports have documented the failures of the broken radio communications system, a splintered chain of command and an unprepared Office of Emergency Management under his watch as mayor. These are the questions he needs to answer.”

Is anyone seriously going to tell me that Rudy will be the Republican presidential nominee? This guy has way too much baggage.

Water-boarding is term that describes strapping an individual to a board, with a towel pulled tightly across his face, and pouring water on him or her to cut off air and simulate drowning.  

When asked directly last week whether he thought waterboarding is constitutional, Attorney General nominee Michael Mukasey was evasive.  As noted by NPR, Mukasey “danced around the issue of whether waterboarding actually is torture and stopped short of saying that it is.” “If it amounts to torture,” Mukasey said carefully, “then it is not constitutional.”

As stated by Bill Richardson,

Waterboarding is torture, and anyone who is unwilling to identify it as such is not qualified to be the chief legal officer of the United States of America. If I were in the U.S. Senate, I would vote against Mukasey unless he denounces such specific forms of torture.

What about the Democrats in the U.S. Senate and other Democratic Presidential candidates?  Will they oppose Mukasey unless he denounces the use of torture by our government?

I'll be honest, I haven't had a chance to read the whole thing yet. But you can see the highlights here:

http://www.joebiden….

Skimming the plan, it appears that Biden would not make health insurance mandatory, so this is not quite a universal health care plan (as Edwards and Clinton have proposed).

Under Biden's plan, all children would be covered, and steps would be taken to improve adults' access to health insurance, including a Federal Employee Health Benefit Buy-In and a Medicare Buy-In for adults age 55 to 64.

This seems most similar to Obama's health care proposal, which also would put us on the road toward covering all children and more adults. 

I like that the consensus Democratic position has moved much further toward universal health care reform than we were a few years ago. 

Also, all of the Democratic candidates are supporting common-sense policies like letting Medicare negotiate for lower drug prices. 

What do you think? 

            Almost two years ago a bold and courageous man stepped forward, and amongst the political maneuvering and jostling, presented an in-depth political solution for Iraq.  Though an intense political whiplash was sure to follow, Joe Biden put policy before politics and called for a federalist system of government to be instituted in Iraq.  For the past several months, Sen. Biden has championed his plan saying that the only way to end the cycle of self-sustaining sectarian violence is to separate the fighting sanctions and create three semi-autonomous regions.  Each region, one for the Sunnis, on for the Shiites, and one for the Kurds, will be granted strong, local control.  The people of the states will finally have control over the issues they have been killing one another over for the past 2,000 years.  Biden believes that once local control is granted for issues such as marriage and divorce laws, police organizations and education the violence will subside.  A limited central government will then be able to function with three main purposes: control the boarders, deal with foreign relations and spread the oil wealth fairly based on population.  Just as expected, the criticism was harsh.  Many oppose the plan, saying it simply will not work; federalism in this day in age is not right for Iraq.  People argue: “We shouldn’t impose federalism on the Iraqis.  They already have an elected government; just let it be.  We have no right to force this on a nation’s people.  No one supports the plan anyway.  Biden is simply misguided.”  It is not at all uncommon to here people say, “Sen. Biden’s plan is going nowhere.  The Iraqis don’t support it, the American people don’t support it, and even Biden’s colleagues don’t support it.  What is he thinking?”  Though these points seem valid from afar, they become very hollow when examined more closely.

            While a certain someone (George W. Bush) still refutes the capabilities of the Senator’s proposal, many other big names support the idea of federalism in Iraq.  From big foot columnists, to United State Senators, and to even Iraqi leaders themselves, support has swelled for Joe Biden and his political solution for Iraq.  At one time the argument that the Biden plan had no support could have been looked at as a decent point.  Today it has turned into a bold face lie.  Countless endorsements have been issued in just a short time.

Many top columnists and big names in the media business have come out to support Joe Biden’s political solution.  George Packer has recently written an extensive post in “The New Yorker”, praising Biden heavily.  He can be quoted as saying “Federalism is the most realistic political option available”, and “I’m glad that Biden is pushing his idea…it’s the only exception to paralysis and polarization in Washington.”  Furthermore, Edward P. Johnson and Michael O’Hanlon wrote a piece in USA Today on Oct. 5^th.  Within the piece they note that, “Rather than continuing to place all our hope in Baghdad, it is time to do what Sen. Joseph Biden (DE) and a majority of his fellow senators have been pushing of late: build on that local progress by advising Iraqis to consider a form of federalism.”  The praise continues with people like Michael Hirsh of Newsweek and Randy Scholfield of the Wichita Eagle.  Hirsh has supported a federalist solution time and time again.  On April 26^th, 2007, Hirsh stated in an article of Newsweek that, “Joe Biden is dead right on Iraq.”  Continuing, Hirsh had other kind words calling Biden himself, “…far and away the most experienced foreign-policy hand among the Democratic candidates…”  People like Hirsh and Packer and O’Hanlon are just a few of the many big feet who are coming around to the conclusion that Biden is in fact “dead right”!

Amongst the growing support, a groundbreaking decision was made on September 28^th, of this year.   The United States Senate, for the first time since the war began, voted in a bipartisan fashion to rebuke the Bush Administration’s policy in Iraq and said a new track must be taken.  By a vote of 75-23 the Senate voted to pass Joe Biden’s political solution in Iraq and by doing so said that George W. Bush is wrong and will be wrong if he follows the current strategy.  Joe Biden was the first person, on either side, to bring both Democrats a Republicans together.  With the help of 49 Democrats and 26 Republicans, Sen. Biden told the President to stop this ridiculous policy and move in the direction of federalism.  Proponent of the plan, Sen. Barbara Boxer has said, “Our chairman has come forward with a vision of how this thing can end up in a place where people will stop killing each other, and yet keep together the country of Iraq, to do the things a country has to do.”  Other current and former Congressional leaders agree.  Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), has supported federalism saying “Federalism is already at work…This will work.”  Brownback feels so strongly about that he helped Biden make history once again as the two of them, Republican and Democrat, cruised the Presidential campaign trail together, both as candidates and held a forum to discuss and support federalism in Iraq. While the political atmosphere back home is important, the security of Iraq will ultimately come down the progress made in their government itself.  Thankfully, a consensus may in fact be in the works.

The most important component of any political solution for any nation in any circumstance is the acceptance of the nation’s people.  It is argued that America cannot force any proposal on Iraq.  People say it is not America’s place to change the dynamics of the nation.  Combatants of federalism say if the Iraqis and their leaders don’t support it we can’t act on it.  Well, I agree whole-heartedly with them.  We ought not force anything on anyone; the catch to that however, is that Iraq has come around to the idea of federalism.  It has been adopted into their Constitution.  Leaders of that nation support the idea.  It has been endorsed by countless Iraqi leaders.  To have a consensus in Iraq is perhaps the most monumental feat anyone could have accomplished and Sen. Biden did so with his political solution.  President of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, has endorsed the plan saying, “I agree with Senator Biden. I think the resolution passed by the Senate is a very good one. Those who criticize it didn’t read it carefully. If read carefully, one finds that every article insists on the unity, security, prosperity and national reconciliation of Iraq.”  He went on by asking “his brothers of Iraq” to work together to institute the plan and to live by it.  Those who combat the plan have not only read it, but they clearly have not heard the Iraqis themselves speak!  Another Iraqi politician, Ammar al-Hakim, Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council leader, has reiterated support for federalism recently by saying, “Federalism is one way to accomplish this [peace] goal.”  

Though it is always great to have the kind words of columnists and the endorsements of Senators, the most lucrative of all backings comes from Iraq itself.  As the nation embraces Senator Biden and his plan for peace, it will become easier and easier to act on his plan.  People are supporting the plan.  People are supporting Joe Biden.  People understand that the only way to end this war responsibly, without it metastasizing in to a regional war, is to listen to the Senator and introduce federalism to Iraq.  Joe Biden has the vision and foresight to lead this nation into a brighter future.  He has the experience to hit the ground running in 2009.  And above all else, he has the political will to introduce a tough piece of legislation to end an atrocity.  Though not originally popular, Joe Biden has swayed Democrats and Republicans alike and convinced them, like any competent President could, that his path is the right path; federalism is the right path.  Joe Biden is the right man for 2008!

    Forget about any surge you have heard spoken of over the past summer.  I'm not talking about a military surge in Iraq, or a diplomatic surge for the Middle East; the only surge I'm talking about is the surge of support Joe Biden has created in Iowa.

    Over the past few months, Joe Biden has amassed thirteen state legislator endorsements in the state of Iowa, including that of House Majority Leader, Kevin McCarthy.  This is more than John Edwards, Bill Richardson and just two short of Barack Obama.  The only candidate with more endorsements than Biden is the so-called “foregone conclusion”, Hillary Clinton.  Based upon these facts, one could argue Joe Biden is a top-tier candidate. This is an argument I am willing to make. 

    While his numbers remain low, Joe Biden is one of only two candidates who have increased their percentages throughout the election.  Going from roughly 1% in the polls to upwards of 8%, Joe Biden has increased his support eight-fold.  Once more, the only candidate matching Sen. Biden is Mrs. Clinton.  Though she may be leading in Iowa right now, she ought to have her eyes set steady in her rear-view mirror.  Joe Biden is racing up on the inside.

      Criss-crossing the state of Iowa, Joe Biden has been more active in the state than any other challenger.  As the holidays creep up, Sen Biden has just begun an eleven day visit to the Hawkeye State, connecting with Iowans at every stop.  Attendance at Biden events has swelled.  Early on, perhaps 15-20 people might have shown to watch the Senator speak.  Now a days, events may include anywhere from 200-400 attendees.  

    Now that Joe Biden has laid the groundwork, Iowans are beginning to listen.  Americans are beginning to listen.  With the combination of experience, foresight and charisma Joe Biden is surging in Iowa and around the nation.  His federalist solution for Iraq has gained traction, passing the Senate by a margin of 75-23.  The senator has recently laid out a plan to fix social security as well as education and protecting retirement savings. All I have to say is this:  Clinton, Barack, Edwards, watch out.  Biden is moving on up!

For those of you who can attend lunchtime events in central Iowa:

Join Us for an Unprecedented Bipartisan Summit in Pursuit of a New Way Forward

On Friday, October 12th, Republican presidential candidate Senator Sam Brownback and Democratic presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden will hold an unprecedented joint campaign event to discuss their bipartisan plan for Iraq. The event is hosted by the Greater Des Moines Committee on Foreign Relations.

WHEN: Friday, October 12
12:00 PM to 1:00 PM

WHAT: Biden, Brownback to Outline Iraq Plan

WHERE: Wakonda Country Club
1400 Park Avenue
Des Moines, IA 50315

Details:
This event is open to the public (lunch provided for $25.00). For more information and reservations, contact the Greater Des Moines Committee on Foreign Relations at 515-282-8192.

I understand what Biden is trying to do here–as he has said in many debates, he has a plan for Iraq, and he has experience getting Republicans in Congress to support his agenda.

But this really annoys me. Aside from the fact that I think any partition plan is doomed to fail, Biden is throwing Senate Republicans a life raft. Now they can credibly say that they have voted for a solution to the Iraq problem.

The reality is that Republicans in Congress are still carrying water for the Bush administration on Iraq and everything else, and we need to call them on that. Biden is allowing them to make a show of voting to change course in Iraq, when we all know that this plan is going nowhere.

“We” being everyone who wants to derail the Hillary inevitability train.

Clinton supporters are crowing about the latest Des Moines Register poll showing her leading likely Democratic voters in Iowa with 29 percent to 23 percent for Edwards, 22 percent for Obama, 8 percent for Richardson and 5 percent for Biden.

Here is the link for the poll:

http://www.desmoines…

Hillary has to be happy not just about her overall lead, but also her lead among voters over 65 and her big lead among women.

It's not good news for the other candidates, but it would be a mistake to say Hillary is going to cruise in Iowa. I think she is going to lose delegates when people go to their second choices on caucus night.

Edwards has dropped since May, but he hasn't been up on the air, while all of the other major candidates have blanketed the airwaves for two months or more. Despite that, he still leads among men and middle-aged Iowa voters. He is building a strong organization to identify and turn out supporters. I totally disagree with those who say he has no room to grow his support in Iowa.

Obama is holding steady. If he were my first choice, I'd be worried about the fact that he trails badly among older voters and does best among groups that are relatively unlikely to caucus (under 45 or independent). Clearly Obama needs to turn out record numbers of independents and first-time caucus-goers if he is going to win Iowa. He will have plenty of boots on the ground, though, so it is too early to count him out. 

Richardson was at 8 percent in this poll, which is not a statistically significant change from the 10 percent he had in May. Clearly, though, he is stuck around the 10 percent mark in IA and NH and is not continuing to gain momentum. He needs to do something to change the dynamic of the race if he wants to break into the top tier in Iowa. He may be tempted to play it safe and try for a cabinet appointment in the event that Hillary wins, though.

All of the candidates need to try to reduce or eliminate Hillary's leads with women and older voters. Individual supporters and precinct captains need to make those voter contacts in their neighborhoods and make the case for alternatives to Hillary. 

What do the rest of you think about the poll? 

Last night at the Democratic debate in Davenport, Iowa, the most significant exchange to date in the debates occurred.  Judy Woodruff asked the candidates how many U.S. troops would remain in Iraq one year after taking office if elected.

Biden said it depends on how Bush leaves Iraq.  Edwards agreed with Biden, claiming “it’s impossible to say.”  Clinton echoed Biden’s view, vaguely offering “a reasonable and prudent plan” to get our troops out.  Dodd objected to speaking about 2010 and said Congress should not wait that long to act.

Only Richardson provided a direct and unambiguous answer:  

Zero troops! . . .  Without getting our troops out you can not have a political settlement. . . . I would take all of our troops out.  We need to end this war now.

I didn't have a chance to watch the forum.

What did you think?

Iowa Independent's liveblog is here:

http://www.iowaindep…

You can also find links to video from the forum at that site.

Noneed4thneed thought it was a great night for Biden and Edwards:

http://commoniowan.b…

Reaction from MyDD readers is here:

http://www.mydd.com/…

I still think it was insane for Obama to skip this one, given that up to two-thirds of caucus-goers may be over 50.

UPDATE: I finally got around to watching the debate. I thought all five candidates did well. As an Edwards supporter, I was very happy with his performance and his ability to make connections: for instance, between strong unions and pensions, between the solvency of Social Security and the need to stop taxing wealth at a much lower rate than work is taxed.

But I imagine that supporters of the other candidates also found much to like in their performances.

The format was also much better than the previous debates (it helped having only five people on stage). Judy Woodruff did a good job of asking direct questions and following up when warranted. 

More like this debate, please! 

Joe Biden's campaign has posted the candidate's new tv ad in Iowa, along with Biden's answers from this morning's debate, over at Daily Kos:

http://www.dailykos….

Click over and watch the ad, “Cathedral,” if you haven't seen it yet. I think it will get people talking and looking up that website.

Biden is positioning himself as the candidate with the solution to the Iraq problem. I don't happen to favor his partition proposal, but I think it's good that he is putting the plan out there. Let's debate who has the best plan for getting us out of Iraq quickly and safely.

DMD highlighted her thoughts on Sen. Joe Biden's campaign for the presidency yesterday and they're definitely worth a read.  If you're curious to learn more about Biden and judge DMD's conclusions on your own with firsthand experience, then make sure to check out Biden when he's in town on Friday.  Here are the quick details of an event he'll be at:

IOWAPOLITICS.COM – DRAKE UNIVERSITY “COOKIES AND CONVERSATION” EVENT
U.S. SENATOR JOE BIDEN
FRIDAY, JULY 13TH

STATE HISTORICAL BUILDING, 600 E. LOCUST, DES MOINES, IOWA 
DOORS OPEN AT 11 A.M.  EVENT BEGINS AT 11:30 A.M.

(RSVP REQUIRED-CALL 515.271.3747 or email iowacaucuses@drake.edu)

You can find the full release from Drake and IowaPolitics.com below the fold.  I'm not sure if I'll be in attendance yet, but if you haven't been to a Biden event yet you should go just to see him talk your ear off and answer every question. 

I wrote a diary for Daily Kos and MyDD about Joe Biden being someone to watch in Iowa. I think it's a mistake for bloggers to be writing him off as a joke.

I put the whole diary after the jump. Be warned: it's long, and some of it is written for an audience that may not understand how the caucuses work.

Bottom line is that none of the front-runners should be taking anything for granted in Iowa. A lot of voters will thoroughly consider all the options before making up their minds.

I'm interested in your comments, either here or at one of the other sites:

http://www.dailykos….

http://www.mydd.com/…

UPDATE: I get mass e-mails from most of the campaigns, including Biden's. In my most surreal blogging-related experience ever, this evening the latest e-mail from his campaign links to my DKos diary!

So I inadvertently started a flamewar on Daily Kos and MyDD today by posting a diary about the Clinton campaign being missing in action from July 4 parades in the Des Moines suburbs. The Clintonistas were outraged that (to their mind) my headline implied that the Clinton campaign did not take part in any parades, when we all know that Bill and Hillary marched in the Clear Lake parade.

You can find the DKos version of the flamewar here here or the MyDD version here (the angry Clinton mob was a little less active at MyDD).

My point was that there was no Clinton campaign presence at the Windsor Heights parade I attended, and according to others I talked to, Clinton's campaign didn't have a vehicle in the Urbandale or West Des Moines parades either.

That surprised me, because Obama, Edwards and Richardson were well represented with campaign workers and/or volunteers. (The organizer of the Windsor Heights parade told me later that Biden's campaign was also in the parade, but I didn't notice them.) 

The Edwards people were able to get quite a few supporter cards signed during these parades. We were watching for people who waved or cheered as the Edwards truck rolled by, and three or four people ran up to those spectators and asked them if they would sign up as Edwards supporters. I didn't catch the number for the WDM parade, but I think they got about 65 cards signed during the Urbandale parade and another 15 to 20 in Windsor Heights.

The team also handed out a lot of Edwards stickers in WDM and Urbandale, but had run out early in the Windsor Heights parade.

Obama and Richardson people were handing out tons of stickers in Windsor Heights. My husband, who was with the kids on the side, was pretty sure he saw an Obama staffer with a clipboard as well, who was probably getting supporter cards signed. He wasn't sure whether anyone with the Richardson group was handing out cards. But yesterday evening at the big Windsor Heights celebration in Colby Park, I saw lots of people still sporting their Obama and Richardson stickers.

The point of my diary was that this was a missed opportunity for the Clinton campaign. Thousands of people watch these parades. I've got to believe there were Clinton supporters and leaners who would have signed up if there had been staffers out there spotting them and asking them. I know staff was probably preoccupied with the Clintons' Iowa tour, but the fact that Obama was in Iowa didn't prevent his campaign from having a strong presence in all of the parades.

A woman I know well in my neighborhood is a Clinton leaner (she says she needs more info about the other candidates before making up her mind). She's a general election voter who rarely votes in primaries. Despite many contacts from me last cycle, she and her husband did not attend our precinct caucus. So she is unlikely to turn up on a list of Ds to target in my precinct. I saw her along the parade route with her kids. If there had been a Clinton presence, I bet she would have taken a sticker or possibly signed up. They could have then targeted her closer to caucus time for GOTV efforts. But how will they find her now?

With Teresa Vilmain running the show and the Vilsacks on board, and plenty of money, I am surprised that the Clinton campaign didn't make sure they had a strong presence in all of the Des Moines-area parades.

What do you think, and which campaigns did you see in your towns? 

Incidentally, the only Republican campaign in the Windsor Heights parade was Brownback's; they were also in Urbandale and West Des Moines. I assume that some of the other Republican candidates were in those larger suburban parades. 

Got an e-mail from the Biden campaign:

July 3rd: Enjoy a day at the State Capitol. Stop by the Yankee Doodle Pops and then come see Senator Biden's 2:30pm press conference on the steps. Several major State Legislators will be endorsing Biden and you can join in the festivities.

July 4th: March with Senator Biden in the Urbandale Parade. Line up is at 9:30am on 70th St between Palm Dr. and Roseland Dr. The parade starts at 10am. Wave to the crowds and share the excitement of Independence Day as you and Senator Biden< make your way through Urbandale. July 4th: Come to Senator Biden's backyard Barbecue hosted at the home of Nate and Meg Boulton. Guests are welcome at 1:30pm. This is a great chance to experience the Senator and Presidential Candidate one on one, ask questions, and enjoy a beautiful day. For details or to RSVP please contact Raena, Raena@JoeBiden.com or 515-440-2008.

Anyone know who's planning to endorse Biden?

Anyone keeping track of the statehouse endorsements so far? The only one I know of for sure is Staci Appel, who's on the Hillary bandwagon. 

Sorry, I meant to put up a post yesterday about this weekend's campaign events. This is from Saturday's Register:

  Saturday

DEMOCRAT HILLARY CLINTON

Indianola:  4 p.m., fundraiser for state Sen. Staci Appel, Warren County Fairgrounds, Lester Building.

Ames: 6:30 p.m., Story County Democrats fundraiser, Prairie Moon Winery, 3801 W. 190th St.

DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA

Dubuque: Noon; canvass kickoff for “Walk for Change” event at Lincoln Elementary School, 555 Nevada St.

BEAU BIDEN, SON OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE JOE BIDEN

Des Moines: 1 p.m., house party, home of Drake law professor Dan Power, 3816 John Lynde Road.
Ames: 7 p.m., Story County Democrats fundraiser, Prairie Moon Winery, 3801 W. 190th St.

 

Continue Reading...

Responding to my post on the Obama health care proposal, Obama supporter RF wrote this:

I think we definitely need to know what ideas the candidates have on the major issues, have an idea where each candidate would like to take us.  But political reality is that the president will need to work with Congress on all legislation.  No president will ever get exactly what s/he wants in any piece of legislation.  It’s like obsessing about grammar and style in a rough first draft or an outline of an article, knowing that it will be completely rewritten.

Obviously any president will need to work with Congress. But it is very important to know what the president's starting point for negotiations will be.

I am a lousy negotiator, because I try to figure out what a fair compromise is, and that's my first offer. I have made that mistake several times in my life.

Look at Bush's record of legislative success. He puts in every bad idea on the Republican wish list, and he ends up getting almost everything he asks for. He doesn't say, Congress would never pass that extreme an energy bill. He just keeps asking for everything, even highly controversial things like drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge. In the end, ANWR was excluded from the bill, but Bush got all the other bad stuff he wanted.

Similar story on taxes. Bush has asked for all manner of ridiculous, unaffordable tax cuts. He kept asking, even if Congress didn't immediately pass what he asked for. At this point, the only thing he couldn't get through was the permanent repeal of the estate tax. But he aimed high and got almost everything else he wanted.

Hillary Clinton's starting point on health care will be a few nibbles here and there, trying to get health insurance for some portion of the enormous uninsured population. Even if Congress gave her everything she asked for (which wouldn't happen), we would be far from universal access to health care.

Barack Obama's plan seems much better than Hillary's, and more detailed, but from what I have read, it is also less than a universal plan, and it lacks some of the elements I like in Edwards' plan.

I am under no illusion that Congress would rubber-stamp what Edwards asks for, but I feel quite confident that he will drive a hard bargain and get us the best possible deal for health care. I feel that Clinton and Obama will not push Congress as hard on this issue. 

On energy policy, so far Dodd, Richardson and Edwards have offered the most ambitious proposals to combat global warming. No doubt these would not get through Congress intact, but it is very important to aim high (e.g. policies that would achieve an 80 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050).

So bring on the details, I say, and tell us what your legislative priorities would be. 

Joe Biden's got a lot of Iowa events scheduled during the coming week. He is covering a lot of ground, so there may well be an event near you. If you catch one, put up a diary and let us all know what you thought.

They are definitely trying to get a big crowd for his Tuesday lunch address in Des Moines. I got an invitation in the mail and a personal phone call. Unfortunately, with my two young kids it doesn't work out for me to head downtown for an hour on Tuesday at lunchtime. 

I got these events from the public calendar on Biden's campaign website:

Saturday May 26, 2007
 
1:00 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL WITH COUNCIL BLUFFS DEMOCRATS
 
                                    National Guard Armory
                                    2415 East Kanesville Boulevard
                                    Council Bluffs, IA
 
4:00 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO MEET WITH CARROLL COUNTY DEMOCRATS
                                   
                                    Sam’s Sodas and Sandwiches
                                    127 W 5th St
                                    Carroll, IA
 
7:30 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO MEET WITH BOONE COUNTY DEMOCRATS
 
                                    Boone County Historical Center
                                    602 Story Street
                                    Boone, IA  
 
Sunday May 27, 2007
 
12:00 PM                   SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL WITH STORY COUNTY DEMOCRATS
 
                                    Iowa State University
                                    Campanile Room
                                    Ames, IA
 
3:30 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO DELIVER KEYNOTE ADDRESS AT JOHNSON COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY
                                  EVENT
 
                                    Upper City Park, Shelter 2
                                    1 E. Park Road
                                    Iowa City, IA
 
7:00 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL WITH CLINTON COUNTY DEMOCRATS
 
                                    Lion Train Depot
                                    #56 25th Avenue North
                                    Clinton, IA
 
Monday May 28, 2007

8:45 AM                     SEN. BIDEN TO ATTEND A MEMORIAL DAY BREAKFAST WITH WAR VETERANS AND THEIR
                                  FAMILIES AT AMVETS POST 49
 
                                    Amvets Post 49 Hall
                                    20 Irving Street
                                    Cedar Falls, IA

10:30AM                    SEN. BIDEN TO ATTEND WATERLOO MEMORIAL DAY PARADE AND CEREMONY
 
                                    *Parade Start Location:
                                    Commercial Street (Between West Fifth And Sixth Streets)
                                    Waterloo, IA
 
                                    *Memorial Ceremony:
                                    Veterans Memorial Hall
                                    West Fifth Street
                                    Waterloo, IA
 
1:00PM                      FORMER STATE REP. BOB OSTERHAUS AND ANN OSTERHAUS TO HOST SEN. BIDEN AT
                                  A HOUSE PARTY AT THEIR HOME
                                   
                                    Home of Former Rep. and Mrs. Bob Osterhaus
                                    216 Austin Ave.
                                    Maquoketa, IA
 
4:00PM                      MS. ANN HEINZ TO HOST SEN. BIDEN AT A HOUSE PARTY AT HER HOME

                                    Home of Ms. Ann Heinz
                                    3150 Asbury Road
                                    Dubuque, IA
 
7:00 PM                     REP. MARK DAVITT AND AMY DUNCAN TO HOST SEN. BIDEN AT A HOUSE PARTY AT THEIR
                                  HOME
 
                                    Home of Rep. Mark Davitt
                                    611 West Ashland
                                    Indianola, IA
 
Tuesday May 29, 2007
 
11:30 AM                   SEN. BIDEN TO DELIVER KEYNOTE ADDRESS AT NATIONAL SECURITY NETWORK LUNCHEON
 
                                    The Temple for Performing Arts
                                    912 Walnut Street
                                    Des Moines, IA
 
5:30 PM                     SEN. JACK KIBBIE AND KAY KIBBIE TO HOST SEN. BIDEN AT A HOUSE PARTY AT THEIR HOME
 
                                    Home of Sen. and Mrs. Jack Kibbie
                                    112 Oakwood Place
                                    Emmetsburg, IA
 
Wednesday May 30, 2007
 
12:00 PM                   SEN. BIDEN TO ATTEND A LUNCHEON WITH WEBSTER COUNTY DEMOCRATS
 
                                    Marvin Gardens
                                    809 Central Ave.
                                    Fort Dodge, IA
 
6:00 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO DELIVER KEYNOTE ADDRESS AT BLACK HAWK COUNTY DEMOCRATIC 
                                  PARTY EVENT
 
                                    Olsen’s Boat House
                                    Center Street (north of the river)
                                    Cedar Falls, IA

Thursday May 31, 2007
 
8:00 AM                     SEN. BIDEN TO ATTEND A BREAKFAST WITH BENTON COUNTY DEMOCRATS
 
                                    Kirkwood Community College
                                    111 W. 3rd Street
                                    Vinton, IA
 
Saturday June 2, 2007

5:30 PM                     SEN. BIDEN TO ADDRESS THE 8th ANNUAL IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY HALL OF FAME
                                  DINNER
 
                                    Crowne Plaza Five Seasons Hotel
                                    350 1st Avenue
                                    Cedar Rapids, IA

I already posted information about Biden’s town hall meeting in Ankeny this morning, Here are more details about his scheduled appearances in Iowa over the next couple of days:

Saturday, May 5

10:30 AM  SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL MEETING WITH ANKENY AREA DEMOCRATS

  Ankeny Area Historical Society
  301 SW Third Street

  Ankeny, IA

1:30 PM   SEN. BIDEN TO ATTEND HOUSE PARTY IN FRANKLIN COUNTY

  Home of Mildred and Ben van Hove
  121 Windsor Boulevard

  Hampton, IA

4:30 PM   SEN. BIDEN TO ADDRESS IOWA BROADCAST NEWS ASSOCIATION’S SPRING CONVENTION

  Best Western Holiday Lodge

  2023 7th Ave. North

  Clear Lake, IA

7:00 PM   SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL MEETING IN CERRO GORDO COUNTY

  Borealis Gourmet Ice Cream Palace
  316 North Federal Ave

  Mason City, IA

Sunday May 6, 2007

12:00PM  SEN. BIDEN WILL ATTEND A HOUSE PARTY FUNDRAISER WITH STATE SEN. JEFF DANIELSON 
  IN BLACK HAWK COUNTY

  Home of Nick Powers

  3335 Santa Maria

  Waterloo, IA

2:30 PM  SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL MEETING WITH STATE SEN. BRIAN SCHOENJAHN AND  FAYETTE COUNTY DEMOCRATS

  Dancing Lions Dance Hall

  110 S. Fredrick

  Oelwein, IA

5:30 PM  SEN. BIDEN TO HOLD IRAQ TOWN HALL MEETING IN LINN COUNTY

  Longbranch Hotel

  90 Twixt Town Road
  Cedar Rapids, IA

Monday May 7, 2007

6:15 PM  SEN. JOE BIDEN TO ATTEND BBQ DINNER HOSTED BY STATE SEN. JOE SENG

  Home of State Sen. Joe Seng

  901 Treemont

  Davenport, IA

If you attend any of these events, please consider putting up a diary afterwards with your impressions, or just attach your thoughts to the comments section below this post.

Just got this e-mail from the Biden campaign.

Town Hall on Iraq with Senator Joe Biden

Senator Biden will be making his fifth trip to Iowa since announcing his candidacy for President in January, and as part of this trip he’s coming to Ankeny this Saturday, May 5th for a Town Hall with local Democrats. All of the details are below, and hopefully you will be able to attend.

Senator Biden Attends an Iraq Town Hall

Hosted by the Ankeny Area Democrats

Saturday, May 5, 2007

10:30am-11:45am (Doors Open at 10:00am)

Ankeny Historical Society, (515) 965-5795

301 SW Third Street, Ankeny

They’d like RSVPs either by phone to Gary Schmidt, (515) 333-4184 or by e-mail to TimEmrich AT JoeBiden.com.

If you live near Ankeny and can attend this event, please put up a diary afterwards. My Saturday is packed already.

Today, the National Journal released their latest rankings on the Democrats seeking the presidential nomination in 2008.  Here are their rankings:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Bill Richardson

5. Chris Dodd

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Joe Biden

8. Wesley Clark

9. Dennis Kucinich

10. Mike Gravel

Make sure to check out what they have to say about each candidate and the fundraising predictions that they are making.

Let me add a couple of things to the questions or things they are talking about in their descriptions of each candidate.  It seems that they frame Clinton’s problem as one of responsibility or the ability to appear genuine.  Iowa Democrats, in my opinion, are looking for a genuine candidate who is able, ready, and willing to admit mistakes.  John Edwards and Barack Obama easily have that advantage over her — and I’m pretty sure some Iowa Democrats are already holding that against her.

Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder are looking for some staff beyond Nevada to impress them some more and prove that he is everyone’s second choice.  Here’s some nice news that I have heard: former Iowa Democratic Party Field Director Brad Frevert has joined Richardson’s campaign as his go-to guy for Iowa field operations.  Frevert’s an Iowa-boy, and worked with Jesse Harris (who is Vilsack’s field guy), so we know he’s got Iowa field knowledge coming out the wazoo.

They note that Chris Dodd is basically raising lots of money because he’s got a cushy position as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee.  It is true, but he’s also taking leadership on restoring Habeas Corpus.  That’ll give him a little edge with which to hold on to some grassroots activists.

Finally, we get to Vilsack, and this is the question I have to ask: Does the endorsement of Barack Obama by Tom Miller and Mike Fitzgerald really mean anything?  Todd and Ambinder seem to think that’s bad news, as do the folks over at CityView’s Civic Skinny.  Now, maybe because I’m young I might be a bit naive about Iowa politics, but do Miller and Fitzgerald really have that big of a following in Iowa that their endorsement would swing Iowa voters to Obama?  I don’t believe that for one bit, but I guess I have to keep inserting the naive bit just in case.  Both Miller and Fitzgerald have been around in state Democratic politics forever and neither were indebted to Vilsack at all, so I don’t think there was a lot of pressure for Vilsack to lock up their endorsement.

And let’s not forget, Tom Miller endorsed Joe Lieberman in 2004 and Lieberman didn’t even make it to the caucuses.  I’m not saying Obama won’t make it to the caucuses (he will) but Miller seems to endorsed based on how well you’re doing early on in the race, not simply based on issues.

Finally, Joe Biden will be back in the state this weekend (or is supposed to be, but it looks like Sen. Reid might be scheduling a vote for Saturday), so I think we’ll officially be able to gauge Iowan reactions to his campaign after he’s been here as a serious candidate.

Anyway, what’re your thoughts on the rankings?  And if you haven’t already, make sure to vote in the poll on the left side of the page.