Iowans have requested a record number of early ballots for the general election with more than a week left to vote by mail or early in person. As of October 24, 565,986 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election (545,739).  

Iowa Democrats have requested about 75,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in three of the four Congressional districts. On October 23, Republicans finally overtook Democrats in absentee ballot requests in IA-04, where the GOP’s voter registration advantage is more than 50,000.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Adrian Gray, a veteran of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign, has been commenting on early voting trends in various states on twitter. I disagree with some of his Iowa observations and explain why below.  

The I-JOBS infrastructure bonding initiative helped fund more than 1,600 infrastructure projects around Iowa during the “Great Recession.” From the beginning, Republicans have used misleading rhetoric to make their case against I-JOBS. Terry Branstad and GOP lawmakers exaggerated the initiative’s costs and understated its benefits repeatedly during the 2010 campaign.

Now some Iowa Senate candidates are putting lies about I-JOBS at the center of their radio advertising.

Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).

Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).

Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.

Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.

Looking at the daily numbers I’ve archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State’s Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.  

Early voting begins today in Iowa, 40 days before the general election. Bleeding Heartland covered the three ways to vote early here and is updating absentee ballot numbers every weekday here. After the jump I’ve posted more links and news related to the early voting process.

The first statewide poll on the 2012 judicial retention elections suggests that the four Iowa Supreme Justices who will be on the ballot this November have good chances of being retained. However, the pollster does not distinguish between support for retaining the justices as a group and support for Justice David Wiggins, whom opponents of same-sex marriage rights are trying to defeat.  

One of the Republican Party of Iowa’s candidates for elector resigned yesterday after indicating that she would cast her electoral college ballot for Ron Paul in the event that Mitt Romney wins Iowa this November.

Both Democratic incumbent Jeff Danielson and Republican challenger Matt Reisetter have started advertising on television in what is expected to be one of Iowa’s most competitive legislative races: Iowa Senate district 30. Both videos and transcripts are after the jump, along with a district map and background on both candidates.  

Normally I am a political party convention junkie, but I haven’t watched any of the Republican National Convention so far. Judging from media accounts of the prime-time program, it seems that Ann Romney gave a decent speech, dwelling on the theme of love, after which New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talked mostly about himself and said Republicans need to seek respect, not love. He also praised presidential nominee Mitt Romney for being willing to tell the hard truths about how to fix the deficit, but naturally, didn’t share any details on those tough budget cuts to come.

Any comments related to the GOP convention are welcome in this thread. Many links and news stories related to the Iowa delegation are after the jump.

The Iowa way of assigning delegates for presidential candidates may need to change for the 2016 election cycle, assuming the Republican National Convention approves a rule change sought by Mitt Romney’s campaign.

At this time four years ago, Barack Obama’s campaign had about 30 field offices up and running in Iowa, compared to six offices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Obama’s campaign has had eight Iowa field offices open this summer and is rolling out another 26 offices around Iowa this weekend. So far, Mitt Romney’s campaign has ten Iowa field offices, in addition to the unified Republican headquarters in Urbandale.

After the jump, I compare the field office locations for each presidential campaign, grouped by Iowa Congressional district. Where relevant, I’ve also noted competitive Iowa House and Senate districts near the Obama and Romney field offices, although I doubt either presidential campaign will do much for down-ticket Democratic or Republican candidates.

I’ve seen a lot of flimsy hooks for political fundraising, but nothing like the latest call for donations to the Republican Party of Iowa.

Two absentee ballot request forms arrived in my mailbox yesterday, courtesy of the Iowa Democratic Party. The delivery was a helpful reminder that it’s time to post updated information on the three ways to vote early in Iowa.  

Bob Vander Plaats confirmed over the weekend that he will lead the campaign against retaining Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins, who concurred in the 2009 Varnum v Brien decision on civil marriage rights. Earlier this month, Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker called on Iowans to vote against Wiggins as well.  

Pass the popcorn: former Polk County Republican Chairman Ted Sporer will defend State Senator Kent Sorenson against a lawsuit alleging that he stole the e-mail list of the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators to assist Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign.

A former staffer on Representative Michelle Bachmann’s presidential campaign in Iowa has sued the candidate and several other former staffers over the alleged theft of the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators statewide e-mail list last November.

Despite finishing a distant third in the June 5 primary, John Landon won a district nominating convention last night to be the Republican candidate in the new Iowa House district 37. Since Democrats did not field a candidate in the Ankeny area district, Landon is in effect guaranteed a seat in the Iowa House for the next two years. I’ve posted background on Landon and the House district 37 campaign after the jump.

Randi Shannon, the former Republican candidate in Iowa Senate district 34, was a guest on yesterday’s edition of the Fallon Forum webcast. During the program, she explained her decision to accept an appointment to a shadow U.S. Senate rather than run for the Iowa legislature. I’ve posted the YouTube video of the program after the jump. The relevant part of the conversation begins around the 11-minute mark and continues for about 15 minutes.

Republicans in Senate district 34 will select a replacement candidate to face Democrat Liz Mathis during the next few weeks.

Friday the 13th sure was unlucky for Iowa Republicans, who must go back to the drawing board in the new Senate district 34. GOP nominee Randi Shannon dropped out of the race against Democratic State Senator Liz Mathis with a statement more bizarre than anything I can remember in major-party Iowa politics.  

Supporters call them “constitutional conservatives” or members of the “Liberty Movement.” Detractors call them “Paulbots” or “Paulinistas.” Whatever you call them, you have to admit that the Ron Paul faction of the Republican Party of Iowa pulled off tremendous organizing feats last weekend.  

Iowa’s Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman announced today by e-mail that she will not seek another term on the RNC this summer.

In an interview with ABC News today, President Barack Obama confirmed that he thinks same-sex couples “should be able to get married.”

UPDATE: Added more Iowa political reaction below.

This rare late-night post was inspired by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum’s endorsement of Mitt Romney for president tonight. The full text of Santorum’s e-mail to supporters is after the jump. It went out at approximately 10 pm central daylight time. He alludes to a long one-on-one meeting and “candid” conversation with Romney on May 4. In a post-script, Santorum promises a “big announcement” soon and says he will ask supporters “to once again join forces with me to keep up the fight, together.” I assume he will be an active surrogate for Republican candidates and conservative causes during the general election campaign.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread. Last week Jamie Johnson, a Santorum supporter recently elected to the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee, told a Washington journalist and an Iowa talk radio audience that he will not assist Romney’s campaign.

Ron Paul finished third in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, but his campaign’s superior organization elected more delegates to county and district conventions than that of any other presidential candidate. Two weeks ago, Paul supporters won six of 16 elected positions on the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee. On May 5, Paul supporters secured most of Iowa’s at-large delegate slots for the Republican National Convention. Details are after the jump.

Matt Strawn stepped down early from his job as chair of the Republican Party of Iowa, but he will be immersed in this November’s down-ticket elections as Iowa chair of the 527 group GOPAC.

Is Mitt Romney destined to become the presidential nominee least liked by his own party’s activists? Yesterday’s elections to the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee provided another clue that the answer is yes.

Some people with big megaphones in the Iowa Republican world are still not sold on Mitt Romney for president.  

What a week for marriage. Washington Governor Chris Gregoire signed an equality bill on Monday. The Maryland House of Delegates passed an equality bill today despite the defection of a Democrat once thought to be a supporter. The Maryland Senate has already voted for marriage in the past, so the path is clear to Governor Martin O’ Malley’s desk. He will sign the bill. Opponents of same-sex marriage will probably get initiatives to overturn the Maryland and Washington laws on the November ballot, but supporters of equality have a decent chance of winning those battles.

The New Jersey legislature also approved a marriage equality bill this week, but Governor Chris Christie vetoed it today. In effect, he flushed his legacy down the toilet in order to preserve a shot at becoming the Republican presidential nominee someday. It’s sad when an official puts his own career before the rights of thousands of constituents, but that’s politics.

In Washington, New Jersey, and Maryland, a handful of Republicans stepped up to vote for the marriage bills. The same was true when New York’s legislature passed its equality bill in June. Sadly, not a single Republican in the Iowa legislature has the guts to speak for marriage rights. I will not be surprised if a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage ends up on the 2016 general election ballot in Iowa.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee met on Saturday to consider a successor to Matt Strawn, who resigned as chairman in the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses.

When a Democrat is governor, the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee defers to the governor’s choice for party chair. But a majority of the 17 voting Republicans elected A.J. Spiker, co-chair of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign in Iowa, over co-chair Bill Schickel, Governor Terry Branstad’s strong preference.

Can’t wait to learn more of the backstory on this one: Matt Strawn announced this morning that he is resigning as the Republican Party of Iowa’s state chairman. In a videotaped statement, Strawn cited competing business, personal, and political interests. He did not refer to the controversy over his attempt to declare the Iowa caucuses a tie with no clear winner. Supporters of Rick Santorum were outraged when Strawn said publicly that he could not speculate about the vote totals from eight precincts missing paperwork. The Iowa Republican blog publisher Craig Robinson, a former senior Iowa GOP official, repeatedly called for Strawn to step down.

I’ve posted Strawn’s video after the jump, with a partial transcript and an Iowa GOP press release. I’ll update with political reaction as it comes in today.

The Iowa Republican State Central Committee first elected Strawn as chair in January 2009. He beat several political insiders in that contest. Strawn is generally perceived to have improved the party’s organization and coordination. He had no opposition when chosen for another two-year term in January 2011.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee signaled this week that it is willing to spend additional resources supporting Christie Vilsack’s campaign against Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

The Republican Party of Iowa will not declare Rick Santorum the winner of the Iowa caucuses, even though he leads Mitt Romney by a few dozen votes according to the certified results, and led Romney unofficially in the eight precincts where results could not be certified. A narrow margin of victory with a clear winner would have been great for the Iowa GOP, as it would show multiple paths to winning the caucuses. A disputed result that produces no official winner is a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn now admits Santorum won the caucuses. The episode still makes the party look bad, for reasons I discuss below.

Now that we’ve had a couple of days to digest the Iowa caucus results, I want to invite Bleeding Heartland readers to discuss how the outcome affected the Republican Party of Iowa. My thoughts are below; please share your take in the comments.  

Let’s review the most boneheaded moves from the year in Iowa politics.

This thread is not about wrongheaded policy choices. It may be stupid to cut early childhood education programs, kneecap the state Environmental Protection Commission, or pass an “ag gag” bill that would never survive a court challenge. Yet all of those actions carry potential political benefits, since they appeal to well-funded interest groups or a large group of voters.

My top ten list of Iowa politicians’ mistakes is after the jump.

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election in 2012 and will step down as leader of his party’s caucus when Senate Republicans meet in Des Moines on November 10. After the jump I’ve posted background on the drive to oust McKinley and thoughts about which Senate Republican will take his place next week.

McKinley’s retirement leaves Republicans without an obvious candidate in the new Senate district 14, which should be competitive in 2012. A map of this swing district is also below.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s move to set the Iowa caucuses for Tuesday, January 3, cleared the way for news organizations to decide when and where to hold the last few presidential debates in Iowa. Invited candidates will debate three times in nine days during mid-December. Details on dates, locations and sponsoring organizations are after the jump. Because more than two weeks of holiday season festivities will separate these debates from the Iowa caucuses, a strong performance or gaffe may not be make or break for the presidential hopefuls.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee voted unanimously last night to schedule the next Iowa caucuses for 7 pm on Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

State Senator Bill Dix lacked the votes to follow through on his recent attempt to replace Paul McKinley as Iowa Senate Minority Leader, but he doesn’t appear ready to abandon the effort. On Wednesday State Senator Rick Bertrand publicly called for McKinley to step aside.

Two days ago, State Senator Bill Dix asked Senate Republicans to caucus this morning in Des Moines. He planned to call for a leadership election during that meeting, while current Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley is vacationing out of the country.

Unfortunately for Dix, he didn’t have the votes.  

Donald Trump’s decision not to run for president put the Republican Party of Iowa in an awkward position, because he was supposed to keynote the party’s June 10 Lincoln dinner fundraiser. While Iowa GOP officials waited to hear whether Trump would keep his promise, even WHO television reporter Dave Price (a favorite among conservatives) couldn’t get a call back seeking comment. The state party finally got the bad news today and released this statement:

Earlier today the Iowa GOP was informed that Mr. Trump will not attend and keynote the June 10 Lincoln Dinner. Citing Mr. Trump’s unique appeal and the close proximity to the event, the Iowa GOP has decided to cancel the 2011 Lincoln Dinner.

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn issued the comment below following Mr. Trump’s decision to cancel his appearance at the Lincoln Dinner.

“In Iowa, your word is your bond. We are disappointed that Mr. Trump has chosen not to honor his commitment to Iowa Republicans.”

I know three weeks isn’t a lot of time, but I’m surprised party leaders couldn’t find some other well-known Republican to step up at the last minute. The Iowa GOP probably has already incurred printing and other expenses related to renting the Polk County Convention Complex for the event. Now money collected for record ticket sales will have to be refunded.

Maybe Iowa Republicans are better off not hitching their wagon to that horse, though. People with an unfavorable view of Trump greatly outnumber those who view him favorably, according to several recent national polls.

UPDATE: How bizarre.

On Friday, apparently stung by criticism from the spurned Iowans, Trump offered to travel to Iowa and speak if the Republicans would change their minds and hold the dinner.

“I promise you that my speech will be fantastic. My word is my bond,” he wrote to Matt Strawn, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. […]

The state party’s response was essentially thanks, but no thanks. […]

“Iowa Republicans have moved on,” is all party spokesman Casey Mills had to say Friday afternoon.

A Trump aide released a copy of the letter, in which the tycoon said he had thought it would be inappropriate for him to give the speech once he decided not to run for president.

“I truly believe that this honor should be given to one of the other candidates or potential candidates, who could use this invaluable opportunity to get their word out,” he wrote. “I was very surprised and saddened to read that you canceled the event, and hence, called you immediately to let you know that if you wanted me to be there, I would be ready, willing and able.”