Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker expressed interest in Iowa’s Senate seat on the day Senator Tom Harkin announced his retirement plans, and it appears the Republican is close to launching a campaign. WHO-TV’s Dave Price noticed today that there’s a MattWhitaker.org website. For now, the only content is a picture of Whitaker, an announcement that “MattWhitaker.org is coming soon,” and a link you can click to sign up for e-mails.

Whitaker likely won’t clear the Republican primary field, but he should have no trouble raising a lot of money for a Senate campaign. A former University of Iowa football player, he served as U.S. attorney for the southern district of Iowa during George W. Bush’s administration. He is now a managing partner in the Des Moines law firm Whitaker Hagenow & Gustoff LLP. The other senior partners are Iowa House Majority Whip Chris Hagenow and William Gustoff, whom Governor Terry Branstad tried to appoint to the State Judicial Nominating Commission. Branstad’s legal counsel Brenna Findley joined the Whitaker Hagenow law firm in 2010, while she was campaigning for Iowa attorney general.

Earlier this month, Whitaker sparred with Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Braley’s campaign manager Jeff Link on Dave Price’s Sunday morning television show. He said he was getting a lot of encouragement to run for Senate from Republicans all over Iowa.

UPDATE: Republican blogger Craig Robinson predicts that in a GOP primary, Whitaker’s “decision to represent Zach Edwards […] could come back to haunt him.” In early 2012, Edwards was arrested and charged with attempting identity theft against Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz. He ended up pleading guilty to a misdemeanor. Schultz is also thinking about running for the U.S. Senate seat.

SECOND UPDATE: Here are Whitaker’s statistics as a football player.

Republican Steve Rathje announced this week that he has hired staff for his campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district. The press release enclosed below contains background on campaign manager Doug Wagner and field director Taylor Nelson. Rathje also rolled out a steering committee of “30 people from all walks of life” who “either live in the 1st District, have employees who live here, or do business and serve people here.” Those names are after the jump as well.

Hiring staff more than a year before the 2014 Republican primary is risky for Rathje. His campaign raised about $51,500 during the first quarter, but more than half of that total came from six donors who each contributed the maximum $5,200 ($2,600 for the primary election and $2,600 for the general election). Rathje’s campaign reported $31,082.87 cash on hand as of March 31, but $15,600 of that amount is restricted for use during the 2014 general election campaign. He can’t spend that money trying to defeat Rod Blum and/or other Republicans who may declare in IA-01 later.

Rathje will either need to broaden his donor base or loan his campaign lots of money in order to keep paying staff for the next 13 months. Since Blum had a strong showing in the 2012 GOP primary to represent IA-01, Rathje should save some resources for direct mail, radio or television advertising next spring too.

Does any other Secretary of State agree with Iowa’s Matt Schultz–that abortion and gay marriage are legal because cheating determines election outcomes? Or is our Secretary of State saying Iowa has the worst elections in the nation?

In an astonishing, passionate speech to the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition April 15, Shultz said the group could not advance its agenda because its opponents "cheat" at the polls. His solution?Voter ID cards, of course.

Schultz offered no evidence of such cheating. He charged that

we have a lot of forgetful Democratic Senators in the state of Iowa. They just don’t get it. . . . Why would somebody be against voter ID? WHY? It’s time to call a spade a spade. . . This about honesty and integrity–I’m an Eagle Scout–I think it’s important we have an Eagle Scout be Secretary of State.

Calling a spade a spade apparently means being ready to say Democrats win by cheating, which he soon said.

State Senator Dennis Guth demonstrated today that he merits strong consideration in any search for the most clueless Iowa legislator.  

Republicans thinking about running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year are still in a holding pattern, waiting for Representative Steve King to make up his mind. Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal just dropped his “King Meter” from 63 to 58, reflecting only a slightly better than 50-50 chance that King will run for Senate. If Bleeding Heartland had a King Meter, it would have started at zero and stayed there.

Today former GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Gross predicted that neither King nor two other prominent Iowa Republicans will run for the Senate in 2014.

The FAMiLY Leader’s strange obsession with the Iowa Governor’s Conference on LGBTQ Youth is well-established. Last year, the socially conservative organization led by Bob Vander Plaats was so focused on getting Governor Terry Branstad to drop his affiliation with this conference that they were too “busy” to protest as the governor wined and dined the future Communist ruler of China (world leader in coerced abortions).

The FAMiLY Leader was at it again last week, throwing a fit over the 8th Annual Governor’s Conference on LGBTQ Youth scheduled for April 3. For this post, I don’t want to focus on the “ludicrous” concerns raised by people like Chuck Hurley (“Stop coming after my kids and other people’s kids with evil propaganda”). I don’t want to focus on how Branstad “ducked rather than draw fire from name-callers” with this weak response to the controversy.

Today I’m more interested in sixteen Republican lawmakers who showed their solidarity with the FAMiLY Leader by making an idiotic promise they can’t possibly keep.

Seventy-six countries around the world have a higher percentage of women in their national legislatures than the United States. Iowa is one of very few states that has never sent a woman to Congress. The open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district is a perfect chance to leave Mississippi in the dust. Yet so far, no women have announced plans to run for the seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Three men are in the race for sure: Pat Murphy, Steve Rathje, and Rod Blum. Steve Sodders is strongly considering it and visited Washington last week to talk with Democrats about the race. UPDATE: Sodders has ruled out running for Congress.

The last time IA-01 was open, four Democratic men and three Republican men sought to replace Jim Nussle. Are we looking at a repeat?

For years, academic researchers have shown that “when women run for office, they perform just as well as men.” But they don’t run for office as often as men do for lots of reasons. A new study suggests that from a young age, women are less likely than men to consider running for office someday (full report here).

Iowa Democratic Party leaders should be working to recruit a top-tier female candidate in IA-01, a Democratic-leaning seat that presents the best opportunity of my lifetime to send a woman to Congress. But that’s not going to happen when party chair Tyler Olson is thinking about running for Congress himself. Republican Party of Iowa leaders should also be looking for a strong woman candidate to capitalize on Democrats’ strategic error. I doubt that “liberating” thought would ever cross the minds of the “Liberty” gang running the Iowa GOP.

Sisters are going to have to do it for ourselves. Whether that’s the “50-50 in 2020” organization co-chaired by former women elected officials and candidates or some informal group of political activists, it’s time to identify and encourage women to step up to the plate in IA-01–before the early declared candidates get a large advantage in fundraising and endorsements.

Yesterday Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum formally announced his candidacy in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district. The same day, he received the endorsement of the Liberty Iowa PAC, formed two years ago by supporters of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign. Both announcements are after the jump, along with my first thoughts on how much the Liberty movement could help Blum in the GOP primary.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum will be the main speaker at a pro-life lunch event in Des Moines on April 15, WHO-TV’s Dave Price reported today. Price notes that Santorum “is the national spokesman for the John Paul II Medical Research Institute in Iowa City led by Kim Lehman, the former Republican National Committeewoman and Santorum 2012 backer.” Lehman’s group advocates for adult stem cell research only, rather than fetal stem cell research.

In other 2016 presidential contender news, Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker announced today that U.S. Senator Rand Paul will headline the Iowa GOP’s Lincoln Day Dinner in Cedar Rapids on May 10. Paul just won the straw poll at the annual CPAC conference, a major event for conservative activists from around the country.

Supporters of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign are strongly represented on the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee and in the party’s four district committees. However, attempts by “Paulinistas” to win leadership posts in the Scott County and Polk County Republican Party recently failed.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has agreed to headline the Polk County Republican Party’s spring fundraiser on May 23.

Any comments related to the next presidential campaign are welcome in this thread. I had to laugh when U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hinted with a joke that Hillary Clinton is too old to run for president. She will celebrate her 68th birthday in 2016. Mitt Romney just turned 66. Senator John McCain was 71 when he became the GOP’s presidential nominee in 2008.

The Republican National Committee released a so-called “autopsy” on the 2012 election results today. You can read the full report on the “Growth and Opportunity Project” here. I’ve posted a few excerpts, links and thoughts after the jump.

Any comments about the GOP’s rebuilding and rebranding effort are welcome in this thread.

Anyone who follows the Iowa legislature has frequent occasion to wonder how someone that ignorant got elected to the Iowa House or Senate. But every once in a while, a spectacularly clueless act grabs our attention. Last week a little-known first-term state representative made himself a contender for the title of Iowa’s most clueless lawmaker.

UPDATE: Not so fast–see today’s news, added at the end of this post.

Yesterday Rob Portman of Ohio became the first sitting Republican U.S. senator to endorse marriage equality. In a guest editorial for the Columbus Post-Dispatch, Portman explained that he reconsidered his opinion on gay marriage after his son came out of the closet.

As a rule, I welcome any public support for marriage equality from Republican ranks. It’s nice to see a current elected official join the long list of campaign professionals and former GOP office-holders who support civil marriage rights. Still, something about Portman’s comments yesterday rubbed me the wrong way.

It’s been a while since I posted about the 2016 Iowa caucus campaign. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker agreed to headline the Polk County Republican Party’s spring fundraiser in May. According to Kevin Hall’s report for The Iowa Republican blog, Governor Terry Branstad helped make arrangements for Walker’s appearance. Like Branstad and unlike eight other GOP governors around the country, Walker opted against taking federal funding to expand Medicaid in his state.

Hall reports that retired insurance executive Cameron Sutton “played a key role in securing Scott Walker’s appearance” as well. Sutton was one of seven Iowa Republican donors from the business community who flew to New Jersey in May 2011 to urge Governor Chris Christie to run for president. (Christie’s star has fallen in Republican circles since he praised President Barack Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy and later agreed to expand Medicaid in New Jersey.) Sutton endorsed Newt Gingrich for president before the Iowa caucuses but wasn’t pleased with the way Gingrich bashed Mitt Romney during the GOP primaries.

Any comments about the next presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

State Senator Brad Zaun announced today that he will not run for the open U.S. Senate seat in 2014 (hat tip to WHO-TV’s Dave Price).

Senator Chuck Grassley doesn’t plan to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, he told John Stanton of BuzzFeed.com this week. He has a favored candidate in mind, but plans to keep that view to himself:

Despite his role as the elder statesman of the party, Grassley said he’s not getting seriously involved in the primary: though he has spoken to one candidate. “I said to him, ‘You’re the only one I’m going to encourage to run, I’m not going to tell anyone they shouldn’t run.’ Because everyone I’ve heard talked about is a viable candidate … that’s as far as I’m going to go.

Grassley was wise not to discount Representative Steve King’s prospects; respect from elder statesmen like him and Governor Terry Branstad will make it easier for King to bow out of the Senate race without looking chicken.

I would guess that Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey is the person Grassley has encouraged to run for Senate. Northey is thinking about the race, but I suspect that his past support for a gasoline tax would become a problem in a GOP primary.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal has been covering King for some time. He believes that King is more likely than not to run for Senate.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker confirmed that he is thinking about running for Senate. Good luck with that. The Ron Paul machine is well-organized but probably not large enough to deliver victory in a statewide primary.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Jennifer Jacobs’ latest piece speculating on GOP candidates for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat includes a classic comment from former Mitt Romney strategist and marriage equality supporter David Kochel: “When I hear names like Steve Deace and Bob Vander Plaats for Senate, it reminds me of the bar scene in ‘Star Wars.'”

Jacobs also mentioned one name I hadn’t heard before in this context: State Senator Mark Chelgren. He is up for re-election in the Democratic-leaning Ottumwa area next year, so he would have to give up his Iowa Senate seat in order to seek the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

This week an anonymous group calling itself “Iowa Republicans for Truth” declared war against The Iowa Republican blog and its publisher, Craig Robinson. More details are after the jump. I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on the kerfuffle.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user conservative demo mentioned Ed Tibbetts’ piece for the Quad-City Times on the battle brewing inside the Scott County Republican Party. I’ve added excerpts below.  

Ever hear that Republicans are more reliable voters in bad weather? The same day a snowstorm closed most schools in the Iowa City area, Republicans appear to have won their first seat on the Johnson County supervisors since 1962. With 57 of 58 precincts reporting, GOP candidate John Etheredge had 3,040 votes, while Democrat Terry Dahms had 2,931 votes. The only precinct left to report had just 82 voters as of 6 pm. UPDATE: With all precincts in, Etheredge leads Dahms by 3,102 votes to 2,974 votes. In a low-turnout election like this one, I doubt there will be enough late-arriving absentee ballots to overcome that margin (narrow as it is).

A Republican won a few Johnson County elections for sheriff in the 1970s and 1980s, but the last GOP supervisor in the “people’s republic” finished his term in 1962. Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth tried to warn local Democrats to vote early in case of a snowstorm. But early voting was low, and total turnout was a pathetic 6.65 percent.

Today’s special election fills the vacancy created when Democrat Sally Stutsman won Iowa House district 77 last November.

UPDATE: Deeth comments on how Johnson County Democrats fell asleep at the switch: “Blame the weather? Maybe. But that doesn’t explain the much lower early vote total. We saw that coming two weeks out. It doesn’t explain Dahms’ narrower early vote margin, which should have been 3 to 1 rather than 60-40.”

Conservative talk radio host Steve Deace told Fox News today that he may run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 if Representative Steve King passes on the race. Deace said King is uniquely qualified to “unite the Rand Paul faction and the Mike Huckabee faction of the grassroots activists.” In his opinion, neither Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds nor “anybody connected to Terry Branstad” can unite Iowa Republicans.

Reynolds confirmed on a conference call with reporters today that she will “take a serious look” at the Senate race. According to Branstad’s communications director Tim Albrecht, Reynolds would not run against King in a GOP primary. UPDATE: The National Journal quotes skeptical Iowa Republican insiders on Reynolds as a Senate candidate.

I am still confident that King will opt out of the Senate race. In that case, a far-right candidate would be well positioned to beat Reynolds in a primary, but I’m not sure that Deace is that person. Spin your own IA-Sen scenarios in this thread.

UPDATE: Bruce Braley’s campaign has started taking shots at King already.

Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns argues that former State Representative Rod Roberts, now the director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals, would be the best candidate Republicans could field against Braley. I don’t think so, although Roberts was a good stalking horse for Branstad in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey will “strongly consider” running for Senate, but only if King does not run. His past support for a gasoline tax increase to pay for road work would be a problem for him in a Republican primary. Also, the conservative base may not trust him, since he has no record on most issues not related to agriculture.

I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on Deace as a possible candidate.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? A few links related to Iowa demographics are after the jump, along with highlights from this week’s “Iowa Press” program, featuring Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson.

This is an open thread.

Representative Bruce Braley e-mailed supporters this morning to confirm that he is “setting up a committee to run for the U.S. Senate.” Excerpts from the e-mail are after the jump.

I’ve also enclosed below the latest news on Karl Rove’s effort to prevent unelectable Republican candidates from winning U.S. Senate primaries. Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace wants conservatives to try to “beat Karl Rove at his own game.”

Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) told journalists in Washington yesterday that he is thinking about running for the U.S. Senate in 2014. He declined to specify when he will announce his plans, but he said he will “make my own decision” rather than be influenced by Representative Steve King (IA-04). Deirdre Walsh reported for CNN,

Pressed if he thinks a Senate bid by King could hurt the GOP’s chances of taking the seat – something other national Republicans have expressed concerns over – Latham told reporters outside the House floor that King is “a very viable member of Congress.”

If Latham wants the Senate seat, he would be advised to announce sooner rather than later. A few days ago, King told conservative talk radio host Larry O’Connor that he is “fifty-fifty” on running for the Senate seat. Click through to listen to King’s comments. In weighing his decision, he is considering “whether the energy is out there” to support his bid and “whether we can raise the money” for a statewide race. I still expect King to stay in IA-04, where he’s safe for the next decade, but he may be tempted to take on the Republican establishment.

The least likely scenario in my mind is Latham and King running against each other in a GOP primary. If one of them announces a Senate campaign, the other will stay out. A new Wenzel Strategies poll of “likely Republican primary voters” in Iowa found that King would be the early leader in a Senate primary, with Latham in second place and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds third. Public Policy Polling surveyed Iowa Republicans over the weekend and found King leading among moderates as well as among respondents who described themselves as “very conservative.”

UPDATE: I missed this story at the Rothenberg Political Report last night. Latham’s changing the name of his campaign committee from “Latham for Congress” to “Iowans for Latham.”

SECOND UPDATE: Michael Devine, a talk radio host for KVFD AM 1400 in Fort Dodge, posted on Facebook today, “Congressman Steve King told us this morning the chances are ‘better than 50 percent’ he will run for the Senate.”

THIRD UPDATE: Excerpts from Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa poll findings are after the jump.

After a dismal performance by his political vehicles in 2012, the man once known as “Bush’s brain” is working to stop unelectable Republican candidates from winning GOP primaries in 2014. Jeff Zeleny reports in today’s New York Times that Karl Rove’s super-PAC American Crossroads is creating the “Conservative Victory Project.” One of Rove’s associates confirmed that stopping Representative Steve King from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa will be a priority.

Details and toplines from the first poll on the open IA-Sen race are below.

What’s on your mind, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. After the jump I’ve posted a new editorial from The FAMiLY Leader’s Bob Vander Plaats. As you can imagine, he’s upset about “Republican elites” pushing for acceptance of LGBT civil marriage rights.

Vander Plaats has made a pretty good living off the culture wars, but he hasn’t done as well as National Organization for Marriage President Brian Brown. The pro-LGBT equality group Rights Equal Rights issued a press release today highlighting details from NOM’s 2011 tax return (pdf). Notably, Brian Brown made over $500,000 dollars: $230,000 for working full-time at NOM’s political operation, and $230,000 from NOM’s Educational Fund “where he claimed to work another 40 hours per week,” plus $47,000 in benefits.

Speaking of the “traditional marriage” crowd, Mark Doland has a slim edge over former State Senator Tom Rielly in Tuesday’s special election for Mahaska County supervisor. Rielly posted on Facebook that as of Tuesday night, Doland led by 1391 votes to 1375. Some provisional ballots and late-arriving absentees had not yet been counted.

Doland used to be a staffer for the Iowa Family Policy Center and worked closely with Vander Plaats during the 2010 campaign to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices. He now serves on the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee. Rielly, a Democrat, was mayor of Oskaloosa before serving two terms in the Iowa Senate. He retired last year after Iowa’s new map removed Grinnell from his district and added heavily Republican areas such as Pella. Republican Ken Rozenboom was elected in the new Senate district 40, forcing the special election for his Mahaska County supervisor seat.

Interestingly, Rozenboom endorsed Rielly for county supervisor, even though his fellow Republican Doland had stood aside for him in Iowa Senate district 40. UPDATE: Rielly conceded defeat by 21 votes on February 4. Republicans won’t soon forget that Rozenboom preferred a Democrat for this supervisor’s seat.

Terrible news for Iowa Democrats: Senator Tom Harkin told Tom Beaumont of the Associated Press that he will retire rather than seek re-election in 2014. Not only will there be an open seat at the top of the ticket, the Iowa Democratic Party won’t be able to count on Harkin’s millions to fund a decent coordinated GOTV campaign in a midterm election year. Even if Democrats manage to win that statewide race while Governor Terry Branstad’s also on the ballot, we will lose an Iowan in charge of a powerful Senate committee. Incoming Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson has a difficult road ahead.

Representative Bruce Braley is likely to run for Harkin’s seat, and unless either Tom or Christie Vilsack is interested, the primary would probably be uncontested. The silver lining here is a chance to elect a woman to Congress in IA-01. Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum would be my first choice, but there are many capable Democratic women in those 20 counties.

An excerpt from Braley’s appearance on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” this weekend is after the jump. I’ll post further updates there. UPDATE: Much more is below, including the statement from Harkin’s office.

One of the most unpleasant members of the Iowa legislature may have committed an ethics violation, according to a former consultant for Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign.

Yesterday the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee voted to keep letting the inmates run the asylum re-elect A.J. Spiker as state party chair and put Ron Paul supporters in other leadership positions.

Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker spoke for many conservative Republicans yesterday when he urged members of Congress to vote against the “ill-advised” deal to avoid tax increases. “The so called “Fiscal Cliff Deal” will only hurt middle class families, continue out of control government spending and fails to address the $16.5 Trillion Federal deficit [sic],” Spiker said in a statement.

Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04, IA-03 in the new Congress) and Steve King (IA-05, IA-04 in the new Congress) voted against this bill. So did likely 2016 presidential candidates Marco Rubio and Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate. However, in a surprising move to me, House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan voted for the deal. I figured Ryan would end up with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and most other House Republicans, who objected to the lack of spending cuts. Ryan later told reporters, “I am not afraid of anything, I think it needed to pass. […] I wanted to stop a big tax increase.”

Any comments on the long-term political implications of yesterday’s votes are welcome in this thread. Rubio has already warned that the deal will hurt small businesses and future economic growth. He is wrong about the impact on small businesses, but economic growth probably will be weak during the next few years, which will vindicate his views in the eyes of conservatives.

UPDATE: A few more House Republicans who voted no may run for president in 2016 or 2020: Mike Pence, just elected governor of Indiana; Tim Scott, just appointed U.S. senator to replace Jim DeMint of South Carolina; Jeff Flake, just elected U.S. senator from Arizona.

Iowa officials certified the 2012 general election results today. Key numbers: 1,589,899 ballots cast, a record turnout in absolute numbers and 73.28 percent of the eligible voters.

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Iowa by 822,544 votes (51.99 percent) to 730,617 (46.18 percent). Early GOTV carried the election for the president. Among Iowans who cast early ballots in person or by mail, 405,913 voted for Obama and 268,558 for Romney. Among election-day voters, 462,059 voted for Romney and 416,631 for Obama.

The Obama campaign and Iowa Democratic Party did a better job identifying and mobilizing independent supporters to vote early. As of November 5, registered Democrats who had returned early ballots outnumbered registered Republicans who had done so by about 65,000. But Obama received 137,355 more early votes in Iowa than Romney. He must have done well among roughly 200,000 no-party voters who cast early ballots.

The full statewide statistical report will come out sometime in January, after county auditors have submitted their final reports to the Secretary of State’s office.

Iowa Democrats registered more new voters during the closing weeks of the campaign, including those who registered on election day. As of September 1, there were 602,636 active registered Democrats, 620,868 Republicans, and 666,279 no-party voters statewide. But as of December 3, there were 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters. After the jump I’ve posted an Iowa Democratic Party press release on this subject.

As Republicans in Iowa and across the country ponder how to improve their chances in the next presidential election, bashing the Ames straw poll is all the rage.

Most strategists and politicians recognize that the Republican Party of Iowa needs to dump or radically reinvent its largest pre-caucus fundraiser, traditionally held during the August before the Iowa caucuses. But a few people can’t read the writing on the wall.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida addressed a full house last Saturday while helping Governor Terry Branstad raise about a half-million dollars for his re-election campaign. Since Rubio is a likely presidential candidate  

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? Many Republicans have been pondering what their party needs to do to win the next presidential election.

Republican State Senator Bill Dix will chair the Iowa branch of Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles’ new nationwide “Campaign to Fix the Debt.”  

Days after winning a sixth term in the U.S. House, Representative Steve King is ready to battle fellow Republicans in the House and Senate who are ready to deal on comprehensive immigration reform. He also confirmed that he will follow through on a lawsuit challenging President Barack Obama’s executive order to block deportations of some undocumented immigrants, who were brought to this country as children.

Longtime Pottawattamie County Auditor Marilyn Jo Drake disclosed last week that an unknown group attempted “voter caging” in her county for the first time ever, to her knowledge.

The second “No Wiggins” television commercial hit Iowa television screens on October 26, featuring an “Iowa mom” who happens to be Iowa’s new Republican National Committeewoman. The video, transcript, and related news clips are after the jump. Bleeding Heartland covered the first “No Wiggins” ad here.

Iowans have requested a record number of early ballots for the general election with more than a week left to vote by mail or early in person. As of October 24, 565,986 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election (545,739).  

Iowa Democrats have requested about 75,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in three of the four Congressional districts. On October 23, Republicans finally overtook Democrats in absentee ballot requests in IA-04, where the GOP’s voter registration advantage is more than 50,000.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Adrian Gray, a veteran of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign, has been commenting on early voting trends in various states on twitter. I disagree with some of his Iowa observations and explain why below.  

The I-JOBS infrastructure bonding initiative helped fund more than 1,600 infrastructure projects around Iowa during the “Great Recession.” From the beginning, Republicans have used misleading rhetoric to make their case against I-JOBS. Terry Branstad and GOP lawmakers exaggerated the initiative’s costs and understated its benefits repeatedly during the 2010 campaign.

Now some Iowa Senate candidates are putting lies about I-JOBS at the center of their radio advertising.

Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).

Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).

Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.

Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.

Looking at the daily numbers I’ve archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State’s Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.  

Early voting begins today in Iowa, 40 days before the general election. Bleeding Heartland covered the three ways to vote early here and is updating absentee ballot numbers every weekday here. After the jump I’ve posted more links and news related to the early voting process.