Catching up on news from last week, Texas Governor Rick Perry spoke at a lunch hosted by Americans for Prosperity and headlined the Polk County GOP’s fall dinner in Des Moines on November 7. O.Kay Henderson posted the full audio from Perry’s evening speech at Radio Iowa. After the jump I’ve posted some highlights from his remarks as well as an interview Perry gave the Des Moines Register and comments he made to Iowa reporters.

The Texas governor is trying to reinvent himself as a guy focused on economic policy and pragmatic problem-solving. I tend to believe in the adage, “You only get one chance to make a first impression.” Perry blew his big opening in the late summer of 2011, and I expect Iowa Republican caucus-goers to be more interested in other governors, such as Scott Walker of Wisconsin or Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. That said, Republicans have on several occasions nominated a candidate during his second run for the presidency, and I think governors tend to be more appealing to GOP primary voters than current members of Congress. Furthermore, several candidates will be fighting over the “uncompromising conservative” niche, so Perry might as well distinguish himself by rejecting purity tests and saying, “I’d rather have a half a loaf than no loaf.”

Any comments on Perry’s prospects in the 2016 Iowa caucuses or the presidential primaries are welcome in this thread.  

Former State Representative Renee Schulte of Cedar Rapids has decided against running for Congress in Iowa’s first district, she confirmed by telephone this morning. She said it’s “the right time to stay and continue to work” on implementing the mental health reform that was one of her key priorities as a state lawmaker. Schulte is helping to write new administrative rules as a consultant for the Mental Health Division of the Iowa Department of Human Services. Her contract runs through December.

Schulte added that while considering a Congressional bid, she was “not excited by the gridlock and lack of solutions at the federal level” and determined that she can “get more accomplished here” in Iowa. Who can argue after watching the government shutdown unfold last month?

Three candidates are already seeking the GOP nomination in IA-01: Cedar Rapids-based businessman Steve Rathje, Dubuque-based businessman Rod Blum, and State Representative Walt Rogers of the Waterloo/Cedar Falls area. One other Linn County candidate, former State Senator and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate, is expected to join the race as well.

Yesterday’s election results were ideal for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s presidential ambitions. He won re-election by an enormous 60.5 percent to 38 percent margin.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 700,000, Mr. Christie won decisively, making impressive inroads among younger voters, blacks, Hispanics and women – groups that Republicans nationally have struggled to attract.

The governor prevailed despite holding positions contrary to those of many New Jersey voters on several issues, including same-sex marriage, abortion rights and the minimum wage, and despite an economic recovery that has trailed the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, hard-right Republican Ken Cuccinelli lost the Virginia governor’s race to a very unappealing Democrat, Terry McAuliffe.  

Mainstream Republicans and pundits will draw the obvious conclusion: to have a shot at winning the presidency in 2016, the GOP needs someone who doesn’t put social issues front and center, someone who can win in a blue state. Christie will lead the Republican Governors Association next year, giving him more access to big donors across the country. He’s already got a fan club among prominent Iowans on the GOP’s business wing.

My hunch is that despite yesterday’s elections, the GOP base will still demand someone more conservative than Christie in the 2016 presidential primaries. If he does become the nominee, I wouldn’t jump to the conclusion that he could win electoral votes in blue states. His opponent in the governor’s race was third-tier. At least two exit polls taken yesterday indicated he would lose his own state to Hillary Clinton in a presidential contest. He didn’t have any coat-tails, as New Jersey Democrats held all their state Senate seats.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? UPDATE: Added comments from Bob Vander Plaats below. SECOND UPDATE: Added comments from other social conservatives below.

THURSDAY UPDATE: Added comments from Representative Steve King. He and Christie go way back.  

Local elections take place across Iowa today. Polls opened at 7 am and will be open until 8 pm. If you have an absentee ballot, don’t put it in the mail today: hand-deliver it to your county auditor’s office, or it won’t count.

The mayoral and city council elections in Coralville have drawn national attention because of spending by Americans for Prosperity, a Koch brothers operation. John Deeth has posted about the Coralville and Iowa City contests, particularly Iowa City’s vote on repealing an ordinance that prohibits 19- and 20-year-olds from hanging out in bars.

The at-large Des Moines City Council race between Skip Moore and Chris Diebel has turned into the most divisive local election I can remember for Democrats here. Later today I have a post coming on that campaign.

Polk County residents will vote today on Public Measure A, a Public Safety & Judicial System Bond to fund courthouse renovations and other improvements. After the jump I’ve posted a few reasons to vote yes on this ballot measure.

UPDATE: The bond passed by 67 percent to 33 percent according to unofficial returns. 60 percent was needed for passage.

Judging from the reception he got in Des Moines and Le Mars on Friday and Saturday, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas is still a hot property for conservative Iowa Republicans. I’ve posted links and highlights about Cruz’s latest visit after the jump. Any comments about his impact on Iowa politics or his potential as a presidential candidate are welcome in this thread.

I see Cruz as a showboater who will peak long before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, as people tire of his over-promising. Granted, many Republicans savor the fantasy that everything would go their way if the evil establishment only listened to “constitutional conservatives” like Cruz. Nevertheless, I expect Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will have a winning message during the next caucus campaign. He can claim to have delivered on more conservative dreams than members of Congress like Cruz, Senator Rand Paul, or Representative Paul Ryan. I would love to be wrong and see the GOP nominate Cruz for president, though.

In July 2011, State Representative Walt Rogers endorsed former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum for president. Today Santorum returned the favor by announcing that he and his Patriot Voices PAC support Rogers’ campaign for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district. I’ve posted Santorum’s full endorsement after the jump.

When Rogers formed his exploratory committee last month, he said several fellow Iowa House Republicans had encouraged him to run for Congress. A few days ago, the Rogers campaign rolled out endorsements from four current and three former Republican lawmakers whose districts include parts of IA-01. I enclose that statement below as well. Former Congressman Tom Tauke is also backing Rogers’ current campaign. Tauke represented parts of northeast Iowa in the U.S. House before losing the 1990 U.S. Senate race to Tom Harkin.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread. Besides Rogers, Rod Blum and Steve Rathje are seeking the GOP nomination. Former Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is expected to announce his campaign soon, and former State Representative Renee Schulte has said she is considering the race.  

Without question, this past week was good for the future of the Iowa caucuses. State Senator Kent Sorenson was pressured to resign after a special investigator found probable cause that he lied about evading Iowa Senate rules against being paid by presidential campaigns. Thanks to improved coordination between the Republican Party of Iowa and Iowa Democratic Party, the 2014 off-year caucuses will be held simultaneously, as usual. Both developments should take ammunition away from critics who point to potential cheating during the Iowa caucus process.

Now it’s up to Iowa lawmakers to prevent corruption or the appearance of corruption from undermining our state’s role during the 2016 presidential race.  

The latest episode to divide Iowa Republicans is a warning from Republican Party of Iowa officials in response to planned traffic safety checkpoints in Polk County. After the jump I’ve posted more details on that story.

Having grown up during the 1980s, when “card-carrying member of the ACLU” was a term of abuse Republicans used against liberals, I’m still floored whenever Republicans actually care about potential encroachment on civil liberties by law enforcement officials.

That’s far from the most mind-blowing political reality of our day, though. Just for fun, at the end of this post I put up a non-scientific poll for any Bleeding Heartland readers, but especially those “of a certain age.” Think back 20 to 25 years and ask yourself, what reality of 2013 would be most shocking?

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

The 2014 fiscal year began at midnight. Congress is ringing in the occasion with the first partial federal government shutdown since the mid-1990s. The U.S. House and Senate have been unable to agree on a continuing spending resolution, because most House Republicans insist on defunding or delaying the 2010 health care reform law as a condition of funding most government operations.

Details on Iowa Congressional votes on budget resolutions are after the jump, along with comments from all the Iowans in Congress and many of the candidates for U.S. House or Senate.

Authorization for most federal agricultural programs also expired at midnight, and it’s not clear when Congress will be able to agree on a short-term extension or a new five-year farm bill. Toward the end of this post I’ve enclosed some comments on the failure to pass a farm bill.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee held a special meeting by telephone this evening. Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson posted the audio from the conference call for those who want to listen to the whole thing. The important news:

1. The Iowa GOP will hold their 2014 off-year caucuses on Tuesday, January 21, in sync with the Iowa Democratic Party. Republican leaders had preferred a Saturday morning date, which Democrats opposed because it would diminish turnout and conflict with some religious observances. Breaking the tradition of holding both parties’ caucuses simultaneously would have opened the door to Iowans caucusing with both parties. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Scott Brennan welcomed the decision in a written statement I’ve posted after the jump.

2. The Iowa GOP’s 2014 state convention will be held on June 14, as originally planned before party leaders tried to move the date to July. Republican Senate candidates, elected officials, and many party activists had warned that a late convention could give an advantage to Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Braley.  

Both of tonight’s decisions are rebukes for state party chair A.J. Spiker, who had faced calls to resign from at least two State Central Committee members and one county party committee. In a stunning bit of revisionist history, Spiker told the Des Moines Register that as far as the state convention scheduling goes, “The earlier the better. I’ve always wanted June, too.” Sorry, no.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley announced on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program today that he plans to run for re-election again in 2016.

“I like serving Iowans. I enjoy my work. I feel very good about being able to do the job and there’s a lot to accomplish.”

Iowa’s other Senator – 73-year-old Tom Harkin, a Democrat – is currently in his fifth term and no other state has more seniority in the senate. Harkin announced this past January that he would not seek a sixth term in 2014, sparking speculation that would pressure Grassley to retire as well, but Grassley told reporters Harkin’s looming exit had the opposite effect.

“You get a lot done with seniority,” Grassley said. “I think that if Iowa is going to start over two years from now with two very junior senators, that it would hurt Iowa’s opportunity to get things done in the United States Senate.”

I have to wonder whether the race for Harkin’s seat has been weighing on Grassley’s mind. The Iowa GOP has so far produced a cluttered field of Senate candidates with low name recognition. None of the early candidates raised a significant amount of money during the second quarter of the year. The fundraising potential of State Senator Joni Ernst remains to be seen, but she comes across as programmed with her “mother, soldier, and conservative” shtick. Likely candidate Mark Jacobs can self-fund but may be dead in the shark-infested GOP primary waters with his $3,000 contribution to Arlen Specter a few months after Specter gave Democrats their 60th Senate seat. The field is so uninspiring that Bob Vander Plaats of all people is thinking about the race.

If the Iowa GOP can’t field a strong Senate candidate in a midterm election year, where turnout often favors Republicans, how would they do trying to replace Grassley in a presidential year?

Iowa’s senior senator would be 89 years old by the end of his seventh term if re-elected in 2016. Grassley ran six miles on September 17 to mark his 80th birthday this week, and also possibly to pre-empt any questions about his physical health.  

Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker is facing a new challenge to his leadership, thanks to his disastrous handling of the 2014 GOP state convention scheduling. The first prominent Iowa Republican to call for Spiker’s resignation was David Kochel, a former senior adviser to Mitt Romney. But Kochel’s often out of sync with Iowa GOP leaders these days, as a public supporter of marriage equality.

During the past week, two members of the GOP’s State Central Committee have said it’s time for Spiker to go. Jamie Johnson and David Chung spoke out on Simon Conway’s WHO talk radio show on September 13. Chung fleshed out his argument at his Hawkeye GOP blog a few days later. I’ve posted excerpts from that piece after the jump. Chung makes clear that he doesn’t have the votes on the central committee to oust Spiker, nor does he expect Spiker to resign before his term is up. But he makes a compelling case, placing the “convention debacle” in the context of a “general leadership style that is absolutely tone-deaf to any input from outside [Spiker’s] inner circle.”

Remember, the Iowa GOP was named one of the country’s seven “most dysfunctional state parties” before the State Central Committee meeting where a motion to set the state convention for July 2014 passed with little discussion.

Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker tried this week to end discussion over the unpopular decision to schedule the state GOP convention for July 2014. However, he was forced today to acknowledge that the State Central Committee cannot ignore criticism from a growing number of elected officials, GOP candidates, and even central committee members.

School board elections take place all over Iowa today, and seven community colleges in our state have property tax levy renewal questions on the ballot. I encourage Bleeding Heartland readers to make your voices heard. Your vote is more likely to be decisive in a low-turnout local election. Regardless of whether you or any family members use public education, we all benefit from adequate funding for community colleges and competent leadership of K-12 school district boards. The Republican Party of Iowa is urging supporters to reject the community college tax levies.

I live in the West Des Moines school district, where as usual, there is no real competition: just three candidates this year for three spots on the school board. It’s still important to turn out, not only because of the Des Moines Area Community College tax levies, but also to prevent some “out there” write-in candidate from winning a school board seat with a few dozen votes. I’m biased against write-ins, because it’s not hard to get on the ballot in our state. If you want to serve on the school board, you shouldn’t hide behind some stealth agenda.

Many communities have highly competitive school board races. I haven’t studied all the candidates for Des Moines school board, but I do hope voters reject the incumbents. They were rubber stamps for former superintendent Nancy Sebring and have mishandled several controversial issues in recent years. Time for new blood on the Des Moines school board. A lot of Democrats I know are voting for Rob Barron, a longtime staffer for Senator Tom Harkin.

John Deeth has been covering the Iowa City elections at his site, including turnout, campaign funding, and teachers’ union endorsements.

I learned from Blog for Iowa that the city of Pleasant Hill wants to put a massive industrial warehouse next to Southeast Polk High School along Highway 163. That is insane. Mixing a bunch of semi trucks with inexperienced high school drivers is a recipe for disaster. Even if there aren’t any traffic fatalities, the idling trucks will pump out a lot of polluted air near the school, day in and day out.

Several members of Congress from Iowa spoke out about potential U.S. intervention in Syria last week, and Bleeding Heartland sought comment on the issue from the declared Congressional candidates. News clips and the statements I’ve received so far are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. Note: most of the comments enclosed below came before President Barack Obama confirmed on August 31 that he will seek Congressional authorization for a strike on Syria. (He never sought approval for military action in Libya two years ago and he believes he has “the authority to carry out this military action [in Syria] without specific congressional authorization”.)

I am 100 percent convinced that both the House and the Senate will approve the use of force in Syria, perhaps after revising the administration’s first draft, which “is not particularly constrained.”  

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I am no expert on foreign policy or the Middle East, but my gut feeling is that military intervention will not accomplish anything good in Syria. It’s a “tall order” to “mount a limited, targeted, and effective strike that will indeed deter Assad without drawing the United States deeper into the ongoing civil war, causing unacceptable unintended consequences.” By the way, former State Department official William Polk wrote the most interesting analysis I’ve read so far about the situation there.  

Former Republican Party of Iowa Chair Matt Strawn’s name came up earlier this year as a possible candidate for U.S. Senate, but don’t expect him to be a serious contender for any statewide office in the foreseeable future. News broke yesterday that the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois has hired the firm Strawn and two prominent Illinois Republicans founded earlier this year to to lobby GOP lawmakers in Illinois to support a bill legalizing same-sex marriage. This spring, Illinois appeared to be on the brink of adopting a marriage equality bill, but supporters never brought it up for a vote in the state House. They plan to try again when the legislature returns in November. Although Strawn’s partner Pat Brady, the former Illinois GOP chair, will do the heavy lifting on this job, social conservatives who dominate the Iowa GOP’s activist base will surely hold a grudge against Strawn.

I got a kick out of Craig Robinson’s rewriting of history yesterday, saying Strawn “abdicated” the Iowa GOP chairmanship, but that “some Iowa Republicans still consider him to have been a good chairman, especially in comparison to his successor.” Robinson was the loudest voice demanding Strawn’s resignation in the wake of the 2012 Iowa caucus vote-counting fiasco. Be careful what you wish for.

A growing number of rank and file Iowa Republican lawmakers are ready to see State Senator Kent Sorenson exit the political stage as soon as possible. While legislative leaders have remained silent on the issue, yesterday State Senator Brad Zaun and State Representative Clel Baudler both called on Sorenson to resign over allegations that he solicited and received payments in exchange for ditching Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign for Ron Paul.  

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee meetings rarely make news, but two proposals approved on August 24 could affect next year’s elections.

UPDATE: Added Governor Terry Branstad’s reaction at the end of this post.

SECOND UDPATE: Added reactions from Senator Chuck Grassley and several of the GOP candidates for U.S. Senate.

Polk County Republican Party co-chair Chad Brown has resigned his office and switched his voter registration to no-party, Kathie Obradovich reported for the Des Moines Register today. Click through to read his resignation letter to the Polk GOP Executive Committee, which is as damning as any focus group comments or “autopsy” I’ve seen. Brown pointed out that Republicans have lost ground in Polk County, not just in the city of Des Moines but even in the suburbs. He has concluded that “we are now headed in the wrong direction on several fronts” and that he would only be “enabling” to help “a dysfunctional Party that does not want to address its problems.”

In his resignation letter, Brown wrote that he finds it “increasingly difficult to defend issues and statements made by Party leaders and officials” at the national, state, and local levels. Speaking to Obradovich by phone, Brown cited Representative Steve King’s recent comments about undocumented immigrants, guns, and what he characterized as “war on science and common sense” with respect to climate change.

UPDATE: The Sunday Des Moines Register published a guest column by Brown on August 25. Excerpts are after the jump. He plans to switch his party registration to Democrat.

How about a new thread on the Iowa caucuses? The off-year caucuses in 2014 could be extremely important on the Republican side. The U.S. Senate nomination could be decided at a statewide GOP convention, if no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June primary. Furthermore, supporters of Governor Terry Branstad will need to focus on electing delegates at the precinct, county, and district levels, if rumors of an attempt to replace Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds on the ticket are accurate.

Democrats in the first Congressional district have extra incentive to turn out supporters for the 2014 caucuses as well, in case none of the five declared candidates in IA-01 wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the primary.

As for the next presidential-year caucuses, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was the featured speaker at the north Iowa Democrats’ “Wing Ding” event in Clear Lake last Friday. She indicated that she is not interested in running for president and even joked that Minnesota supplies the country with vice presidents. If Hillary Clinton does not run for president again, Klobuchar is one of several Democratic senators who might join the race.

Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts visited the Iowa State Fair on Sunday with his wife, Iowa native Gail Huff. He wants to know if there is substantial support for his “brand of leadership and Republicanism.” I can hardly imagine a worse fit than Brown for Iowa Republican caucus-goers.

Speaking of which, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey signed a bill banning so-called gay conversion therapy for minors in his state. That intrusion on parental decision-making will be a deal-breaker for social conservatives.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, the new darling of the Iowa Republican base, has released his birth certificate to show that he is eligible to run for president. He will also renounce his dual Canadian citizenship.

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, my early pick to win the 2016 Iowa caucuses, previewed his future case against GOP members of Congress who may become rivals for the presidential nomination.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign revealed today that it has recruited 1,040 county co-chairs, including multiple volunteers in every county. I’ve posted the official announcement below. You can view the full list of Branstad-Reynolds co-chairs here (pdf). The campaign plans to line up chairs in every Iowa precinct.

This show of organizational force will cement the conventional wisdom that Branstad is favored to win a sixth term, assuming he seeks re-election. It may also fuel rumors in some Iowa Democratic circles that the governor is planning to stand aside for Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. The deliberate branding of “Branstad-Reynolds,” which Bleeding Heartland discussed here, is apparent in today’s press release. Every testimonial from a county co-chair mentions the “governor and lieutenant governor” as a unit, as well as both Branstad and Reynolds by name.

The governor and lieutenant governor have made fourteen joint public appearances in the last two weeks alone. That’s consistent with the Branstad administration’s pattern in recent months but a departure from the traditional role of Iowa’s lieutenant governors, who have largely handled events the governor doesn’t have time to attend. Some Democrats believe that Reynolds is being groomed to step in as the candidate.

If Branstad bows out shortly before the filing deadline next March, an organization with more than 1,000 volunteers could easily collect enough signatures for Reynolds to qualify for the ballot as a gubernatorial candidate. In contrast, other Republicans would be hard-pressed to collect at least 3,654 valid signatures spread across at least ten counties on short notice.

I still believe Branstad will run for re-election, barring some catastrophic health event. Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- An alternate rumor has Branstad planning to resign in the middle of his sixth term, turning the office over to Reynolds. Perhaps for that reason, some conservative Republicans are plotting to try to replace Reynolds on the ticket at next summer’s statewide convention, according to longtime political reporter Mike Glover. Branstad told reporters today, “We’re not afraid of any challenge” to Reynolds for the lieutenant governor slot.

For once, former Senator Rick Santorum has a message Republicans really should hear. But judging by the coverage of Saturday’s Family Leadership Summit in Ames, the Iowa GOP’s social conservatives may be too smitten with Senator Ted Cruz to notice.

Following up on yesterday’s bombshell news, The Iowa Republican publisher Craig Robinson has now published an audio recording with transcript of State Senator Kent Sorenson describing how he took money in exchange for endorsing Ron Paul for president.

There is no excuse for Sorenson’s behavior or the continued silence of state Republican Party leaders. I don’t care if Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker and several state central committee members are old “Paulinista” buddies with Sorenson. You have to be blind not to see the damage Sorenson has already done to the Iowa caucuses. Governor Terry Branstad and Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix may be afraid to take a public stand because Sorenson has a cheering squad among social conservatives, but this man does not belong in the Iowa Senate.

I will update this post as needed, and I hope it will be needed.

UPDATE: Sorenson’s attorney Ted Sporer told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that no money changed hands, either directly or indirectly, between Sorenson and the Paul campaign. Is he lying, or did his client lie to him?

So far I’ve seen no comment about this scandal from conservative talk radio host Steve Deace, a longtime Sorenson ally. Deace’s motto is “Fear God, Tell the Truth, and Make Money.” I guess two out of three ain’t bad.

Conservative radio host Simon Conway commented on the Sorenson allegations, “Does not look good.” An understatement, but at least it’s something. Conway added, “We did a full hour on this yesterday and will be doing more today.”

SECOND UPDATE: As of the late afternoon on August 7, Iowa Senate Republicans had “no comment at this time” regarding Sorenson. Unreal.

THIRD UPDATE: The source for this story, former Ron Paul aide Dennis Fusaro, spoke to the Washington Post. Meanwhile, The Iowa Republican posted audio and transcript of a different conversation between Sorenson and Fusaro about the check Sorenson received.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz became the first GOP elected official to say Sorenson should resign if the allegations are true.

Your unintentional comedy for the week: Republican National Committee and Republican Party of Iowa leaders freaking out over lengthy planned television broadcasts about Hillary Clinton. Republicans now threaten not to co-sponsor any presidential debates with CNN or NBC if those networks move forward with a documentary about the former first lady and secretary of state and a miniseries starring Diane Lane, respectively. The RNC is appalled by the “thinly veiled attempt at putting a thumb on the scales of the 2016 presidential election,” while the Iowa GOP is upset by the lack of “journalistic integrity.”

What a pathetic display of weakness and hypocrisy.

Under the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United ruling, corporations can make and broadcast movies about political figures, and such activity is not considered “electioneering communication” that must be funded through a registered political action committee (PAC). The Citizens United case arose because of a (very negative) corporate movie about Hillary Clinton. I didn’t agree with or welcome Citizens United, but Republicans were happy to treat corporations as people with unlimited free speech in the political sphere. Who are they to tell CNN and NBC not to make money by airing films that could draw a large potential audience?

I’m old enough to remember when prime-time television about controversial political topics had to be balanced with an opposing point of view. But under the GOP’s sainted President Ronald Reagan, the Federal Communications Commission voted to “abolish its fairness doctrine on the ground that it unconstitutionally restricts the free-speech rights of broadcast journalists.” Democrats didn’t like it, but elections have consequences. As a result, CNN and NBC can air films about any political figure as frequently as they believe they can profit from doing so.

P.S. – RNC Chair Reince Priebus and Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker wouldn’t be making this threat if they believed in GOP talking points about Benghazi or Hillary being “old news.”  

Within the last week or so, unnamed fans of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz have launched an Iowans for Ted Cruz website to support a future presidential bid by the tea party hero. After the jump I’ve posted some “testimonials” and a “grassroots plan” that appeared on the site. The business wing of the Republican establishment in Iowa would freak out to see Cruz do well in the caucuses. Democrats would probably love to see someone as extreme as Cruz be nominated for president in 2016.

Incidentally, Cruz is eligible to run for president as a natural-born citizen, even though he was born in Calgary, Canada.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.  

Representative Steve King’s assertion that there are 100 drug mules for every “DREAMer” who’s a valedictorian continues to reverberate across the country. National television networks and blogs have chewed over the story, and many politicians have condemned King’s statement, including House Speaker John Boehner.

King stands by his comments and claims that the intense criticism proves he has “won the debate” over immigration policy. Yet a new poll of residents in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district suggests that King is out of step even with his own constituents.

Follow me after the jump for details on that poll and a roundup of reaction to King’s words about undocumented immigrants who entered the country as children.

Roll Call’s Abby Livingston published a piece today on “The 7 Most Dysfunctional State Parties.” Lo and behold, our own Republican Party of Iowa was there along the state GOP operations in Minnesota, Alaska, and Nevada, and state Democratic parties in Alabama, New Jersey, and Georgia.

The Daily Kos Elections team has been compiling 2012 presidential election results by state legislative district as well as by Congressional district, state by state. Last week the Iowa numbers were added to the database. I took a first stab at previewing the battle for control of the Iowa Senate next year, using data including the raw vote totals and percentages for President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in each district.

The Daily Kos database includes Obama and Romney vote totals and percentages for each Iowa House district here. After the jump I’ve incorporated that information and other factors to predict which Iowa House districts will be competitive in 2014. Writing this post has been challenging, because every election cycle brings surprises, and many more seats in the lower chamber will be in play. Unlike the Iowa Senate, where only half of the 50 members are on the ballot in each general election, all 100 Iowa House members are on ballot in every even-numbered year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the lower chamber.

It’s never too early to talk about the next Iowa caucuses. Here are a few news items to get the conversation started: Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the last GOP vice presidential nominee and chair of the House Budget Committee, will headline Governor Terry Branstad’s birthday event in Altoona this November.

Representative Peter King of New York, the chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, is thinking about running for president and specifically criticized two other likely candidates: Senators Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. It sounds as if King doesn’t expect to win the nomination, but wants to “get my views out on national defense and foreign policy” and prevent people like Paul from being “the face of the national Republican Party.”

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is my ridiculously early pick to win the 2016 caucuses, but I think Paul Ryan could do well here too. I don’t see Peter King having strong appeal with Iowa Republicans.

I tend to agree with Josh Marshall that we are seeing “the end of Marco Rubio” as a presidential contender. Immigration reform is probably going nowhere, and Rubio bet a lot on that horse. Conservative talk radio host Steve Deace is wrong about most things, but probably not wrong about Rubio’s “Iowa problem.” The young senator would be better off running for re-election in Florida in 2016 and putting off any presidential ambitions for at least another four or eight years.

The latest Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa Republicans showed no clear front-runner.

State Senator Joni Ernst made her U.S Senate campaign official last week by bringing her Joni for Iowa website live and posting several slogans on a campaign Facebook page. She plans several public events around Iowa later this week, beginning at the Montgomery County courthouse in Red Oak.

Ernst is the fifth candidate in the Republican field, after Matt Whitaker, David Young, Sam Clovis, and Paul Lunde–or the sixth if you count Mark Jacobs, who has formed an exploratory committee but not announced his candidacy. Lots of links and early thoughts about her campaign are after the jump.

JULY 17 UPDATE: Adding news from Ernst’s campaign kickoff events below.

Via John Deeth’s blog I saw that Republican Michael Moore has announced his candidacy in Iowa Senate district 39, a swing seat being vacated by Senator Sandy Greiner.

I had expected GOP State Representative Jarad Klein to step up for this race, but he quickly took himself out of contention. You can’t blame him for wanting to stay where he’s safe and warm. Iowa House district 78, which Klein currently represents, has a Republican voter registration advantage of more than 2,000, while Senate district 39 contains 13,342 registered Democrats, 13,341 Republicans, and 16,194 no-party voters.

Moore has a long record of civic involvement in Washington County. I’ve posted his official bio and first press release after the jump. His campaign is on the web here. I wouldn’t be surprised if some Republican from the party’s “Liberty” wing ends up competing against Moore in the June 2014 primary.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign announced four hires today in preparation for next year’s election. I’ve posted the campaign press release after the jump. Phil Valenziano, who will serve as political director, joined the Branstad campaign full-time two months ago to focus on grassroots organizing and public events. Jake Ketzner and Jimmy Centers will serve as campaign manager and communications director, respectively. Both have worked in the governor’s office for some time but left for a while to help run Representative Steve King’s 2012 re-election campaign. Vonna Hall will be the Branstad campaign’s office manager after doing the same job for the Republican Party of Iowa since 2010. So far, Branstad’s campaign has $2 million cash on hand. When the fundraising reports are available online, Bleeding Heartland will take a closer look at the donors.

Meanwhile, State Representative Tyler Olson has scheduled public events for July 9 in Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Mason City. Of those cities, only Cedar Rapids is in the first Congressional district, making it a near-certainty that Olson will announce his campaign for governor tomorrow. The four-term Iowa House Democrat is roughly the same age Branstad was when he first ran for governor in 1982. Two other Democrats have previously announced plans to run for governor: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. My Facebook and Twitter feeds are replete with jokes about Branstad racing “full speed ahead” on his campaign–a reference to the speeding incident that prompted a 25-year veteran of the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation to file a formal complaint. There is no excuse for state troopers driving the governor at 20-25 mph over the speed limit. He’s not above the law and shouldn’t endanger people’s lives to get back on what Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds calls an “ambitious schedule.” It’s not credible to suggest that Branstad has no input on the driving or didn’t realize his SUV he was riding in was speeding.

The Iowa Democratic Party launched an anti-Branstad “Iowa Problem Causer” website today. Republicans (not clear whether in Iowa or on the National Republican Senatorial Committee) have registered a similarly named Iowa Problem Causer site to shine an unflattering spotlight on Representative Bruce Braley. The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate is presenting himself as an “Iowa Problem Solver.”

UPDATE: Senate President Pam Jochum told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that she is not likely to run for governor next year, “but I haven’t made up mind for sure.”

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

I’ve been thinking about how bad assumptions produce flawed theories and poor decisions. Steve Denning wrote an excellent piece for Forbes about Milton Friedman and the origin of “the world’s dumbest idea”: “that the sole purpose of a firm is to make money for its shareholders.”

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for the conservative website RealClearPolitics, recently spun some rosy scenarios for Republicans worried about their party’s over-reliance on white voters. GOP candidates would be extremely foolish to count on his “racial polarization” scenario panning out. His “full Rubio” and “modest Republican outreach toward Hispanics” scenarios seem too optimistic to me as well.

High nitrate levels in Iowa waterways continue to make news, as they have for the last two months. I enjoyed this Des Moines Register editorial from Saturday’s paper. Excerpt:

During a meeting with The Des Moines Register’s editorial board earlier this year, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen made the claim that Iowa’s rivers are actually cleaner today than they were in the past. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. But Paulsen’s comment speaks to a troubling mentality that permeates the Iowa Legislature: If you just tell Iowans the water is OK often enough, maybe they will believe you and will think the lake they are swimming in doesn’t really smell like a toilet.

I don’t take my kids swimming in any Iowa lakes, and I won’t feel a bit sorry for Paulsen if he runs for Congress and loses the Republican primary, as I expect.

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that the federal Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional. The ruling means that legally married gay and lesbian couples in Iowa and elsewhere will be entitled to equal treatment under federal law. More than 200 Congressional Democrats, including Senator Tom Harkin and Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, signed an amicus curiae brief urging justices to strike down the key provision of the DOMA, adopted in 1996 with overwhelming bipartisan support.  

In a separate case, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that backers of California’s Proposition 8 did not have standing to appeal a lower-court ruling striking down that ballot initiative. The decision means that LGBT couples will be allowed to marry in California. It does not affect other states’ statutory or constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. Braley and Loebsack were among scores of Congressional Democrats who recently posed for the “NoH8” campaign supporting marriage equality and opposing Prop 8.

Excerpts from the DOMA decision and Iowa reaction to today’s rulings are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. At this writing, most of the Congressional delegation has not publicly commented on the Supreme Court decisions.

I also enclose below Democratic State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad’s reaction to yesterday’s disgraceful 5-4 Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.

Former Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn and two prominent Illinois Republicans have formed Next Generation Public Affairs Inc, Jennifer Jacobs reported for the Des Moines Register today.

The firm will provide strategies in government affairs, issue advocacy and media relations, as well as strategies in sourcing capital and structuring large-scale public-private partnership projects, Strawn said this morning.

It will have an upper Midwest focus and initial offices in Chicago and Des Moines.

“Too often comprehensive public affairs strategies for transactions that require both public and private resources are an afterthought, or used defensively in attempt to rescue failing or stalled deals,” [Chicago-based business owner] Fitzsimmons said in a written statement. “The ability to develop sophisticated advocacy campaigns, source capital and navigate complex transactions to completion truly is the next generation of public affairs.”

Strawn and [former Illinois GOP state party Chair Pat] Brady became close friends during their tenure on the Republican National Committee.

The concept for the firm has been in the works since last year, Strawn said. He will lead the company’s social media engagement and data capturing technologies.

Strawn may have felt that he was criticized unfairly over problems with reporting the 2012 Iowa caucus vote, but in retrospect he probably benefited from stepping down early as state party chair. He can still claim credit for rebuilding the Iowa GOP while riding the 2010 wave and registration gains related to the 2012 caucuses. At the same time, Strawn doesn’t get the blame for Iowa Republicans’ subpar early GOTV in the 2012 general election. I believe President Barack Obama would have carried Iowa in any event, but turning out more Republicans and identifying more GOP-leaning independents would have kept things a lot closer. Strawn can say those failures didn’t happen on his watch.

I am seeking comment on whether Strawn will remain involved with the 527 group GOPAC. Last year the troup tapped Strawn to chair its efforts in down-ticket Iowa races.

P.S.- Here’s some free advice for Jennifer Jacobs: see how easy it is to provide a link and a mention when you first saw a story on someone else’s website? If the Des Moines Register were more willing to do the same where appropriate, people like Kevin Hall might not ridicule you so much about getting scooped.

Catching up on news from last week, two-time Republican nominee Ben Lange has confirmed that he will not run for Congress next year in the open first district. Lange’s written statement, which I enclose at the end of this post, cited family reasons. As a practical matter, he would have been an underdog to win the nomination in IA-01 for a third time. He barely defeated Rod Blum in the 2012 primary despite having raised far more money and hired a larger campaign staff. In that race, many prominent Iowa Republicans and the National Republican Congressional Committee favored Lange, probably because he had come so close to defeating incumbent Bruce Braley in 2010. But Braley easily won re-election last year, carrying 17 of the 20 counties in IA-01.

Also last week, Blum previewed his case against likely primary rival Kraig Paulsen, the speaker of the Iowa House. I recommend reading the whole article by James Q. Lynch for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. A few excerpts are after the jump. I believe that Blum’s attacks on Paulsen will resonate with many activists who participate in Republican primaries.

It’s time for a new discussion thread on the campaign for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. I’ve pulled together lots of news on the declared and potential Republican candidates after the jump.

Some candidates who have expressed interest may back off before the filing deadline next March, but if most of them follow through, it’s plausible that no Republican will receive 35 percent of the vote in the June 2014 primary. That would allow statewide GOP convention delegates to select a nominee to face Democrat Bruce Braley in the general election.

Sam Clovis announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Clovis is ending his conservative talk radio program and has a sabbatical for the coming academic year from Morningside College in Sioux City. After the jump I’ve posted more background on Clovis, including the statement of purpose he posted on his campaign website, as well as highlights from his news conference yesterday. You can watch clips from his speech here, and he is on Twitter here. Many Iowa conservatives will buy what Clovis is selling, but can he raise the money to run a strong statewide campaign?

Meanwhile, Alexander Burns reported at Politico yesterday that State Senator Joni Ernst is consulting with GOP strategist David Polyansky as she lays the groundwork for a Senate campaign.

“She’s making all the steps necessary to advance towards a campaign,” said one Republican close to Ernst. “I think she has the core nucleus [of a campaign] in place so that, should she decide to pull the trigger, she’d be able to do so fairly soon.”

The Sunday Des Moines Register featured a guest editorial by Mark Jacobs, a former energy company executive who is also considering the Senate race. After the jump I’ve posted some bullet points from that editorial, which focused on next steps for Iowa in education reform.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2014 primary, a statewide convention will determine the GOP nominee for Senate.

UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Polyansky previously worked for the presidential campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann, although he bailed on Bachmann a few months before the Iowa caucuses.

SECOND UPDATE: I keep forgetting Paul Lunde, who is also seeking the GOP nomination for Senate. James Lynch reports that if elected, Lunde “plans to introduce what he calls the ‘second Bill of Rights’ – 12 constitutional amendments that include making Social Security and Medicare permanent, changing the Electoral College, instituting a limited national sales tax and setting term limits for members of Congress.”

David Young and his campaign recently released an introductory video to youtube that runs about two and a half minutes.  The video is here.  I am sure I do not agree with Mr. Young on much and I have any number of critiques of his video.  However, it is a good video.  It does seem genuine; genuinely nerdy, but genuine.  

The biggest thing that struck me is the emotional experience of going back to your hometown to tell the people who will always know you best that you are going to ask them for their vote.  It is a combination of the beginning of a person’s biggest professional challenge in their lifetime with a “this is your life” trip bringing back personalities and memories from childhood.  David Young does not strike me a person who wears his emotions on his sleeve, but from personal experience I guarantee that this was a powerful event for him.  

Conservative talk radio host and Morningside College professor Sam Clovis plans a press conference on June 10, Bret Hayworth reported for the Sioux City Journal yesterday. Clovis has previously said he may run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. He declined to specify whether he will announce a Senate campaign on Monday, but said he will disclose news “that affects my future” and “is a commitment for something down the road.” These comments seem to indicate that Clovis is leaning toward running:

“I’m a very principled man, a man of great integrity, so that is a skill set that I think is very much there,” he said.

“I’ve been a natural leader my whole life and I think those are, again, skills that are very lacking in Washington. Because we don’t have people who are willing to stand up and tell people the truth and then stick to their principles to make sure that happens. Everything seems to be about self-interest, nothing seems to be about the people of the country.”

Clovis added, “I’ve been an executive, I’ve been in business, non-profit, for-profit, education, military service second to none, a very distinguished career there. So I have all of the credentials that one would need to be a person that one would look to to lead and do the things that are necessary to lead this country, particularly if one pursued public office in the United States Senate.”

I have no idea whether Clovis can raise enough money to run a credible statewide campaign, but having hosted a radio show for the past two years, he probably has better communication skills than any other potential Republican candidate. As a self-described “red-meat conservative,” Clovis would compete aggressively in a primary. Both of the declared GOP Senate candidates have vulnerabilities: Matt Whitaker failed to stake out a clear position on “Obamacare,” and David Young (amazingly) was not familiar with the “fair tax” proposal.