What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Iowa Republicans will have at least two women on the statewide ballot in 2014: Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds and State Auditor Mary Mosiman, who kicked off her election campaign on Thursday in Des Moines. Excerpts from Kevin Hall’s write-up of the event are after the jump.

State Senator Joni Ernst could also become a statewide nominee if she joins the U.S. Senate race, as expected. I think she has strong potential in a GOP primary against three or four men. At this writing, no Democratic woman has announced plans to run for any statewide office in Iowa, but several have either launched or are considering Congressional campaigns.

This week Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer replaced Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen on the Legislative Leaders Advisory Board of Newt Gingrich’s organization GOPAC. Upmeyer was an early endorser of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign. Paulsen endorsed Gingrich shortly before the 2012 Iowa caucuses. If Paulsen runs for Congress in the open first district, Upmeyer will probably also seek to replace him as Iowa House speaker. She would be the first woman to reach that position in our state, although she’s not a shoo-in for the job. (For what it’s worth, I doubt Paulsen would win an IA-01 Republican primary.)

Last month Upmeyer and Reynolds joined the national advisory board of the Republican State Leadership Committee’s project to recruit more women candidates, called Right Women, Right Now. Upmeyer has served on the national board of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) for several years.

Speaking of women elected officials, Eric Ostermeier wrote an interesting piece for the Smart Politics blog on how the 78 women in the U.S. House identify themselves. Three Republicans go by “Congressman” instead of “Congresswoman” or “Representative.”

Sam Clovis announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Clovis is ending his conservative talk radio program and has a sabbatical for the coming academic year from Morningside College in Sioux City. After the jump I’ve posted more background on Clovis, including the statement of purpose he posted on his campaign website, as well as highlights from his news conference yesterday. You can watch clips from his speech here, and he is on Twitter here. Many Iowa conservatives will buy what Clovis is selling, but can he raise the money to run a strong statewide campaign?

Meanwhile, Alexander Burns reported at Politico yesterday that State Senator Joni Ernst is consulting with GOP strategist David Polyansky as she lays the groundwork for a Senate campaign.

“She’s making all the steps necessary to advance towards a campaign,” said one Republican close to Ernst. “I think she has the core nucleus [of a campaign] in place so that, should she decide to pull the trigger, she’d be able to do so fairly soon.”

The Sunday Des Moines Register featured a guest editorial by Mark Jacobs, a former energy company executive who is also considering the Senate race. After the jump I’ve posted some bullet points from that editorial, which focused on next steps for Iowa in education reform.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2014 primary, a statewide convention will determine the GOP nominee for Senate.

UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Polyansky previously worked for the presidential campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann, although he bailed on Bachmann a few months before the Iowa caucuses.

SECOND UPDATE: I keep forgetting Paul Lunde, who is also seeking the GOP nomination for Senate. James Lynch reports that if elected, Lunde “plans to introduce what he calls the ‘second Bill of Rights’ – 12 constitutional amendments that include making Social Security and Medicare permanent, changing the Electoral College, instituting a limited national sales tax and setting term limits for members of Congress.”

David Young and his campaign recently released an introductory video to youtube that runs about two and a half minutes.  The video is here.  I am sure I do not agree with Mr. Young on much and I have any number of critiques of his video.  However, it is a good video.  It does seem genuine; genuinely nerdy, but genuine.  

The biggest thing that struck me is the emotional experience of going back to your hometown to tell the people who will always know you best that you are going to ask them for their vote.  It is a combination of the beginning of a person’s biggest professional challenge in their lifetime with a “this is your life” trip bringing back personalities and memories from childhood.  David Young does not strike me a person who wears his emotions on his sleeve, but from personal experience I guarantee that this was a powerful event for him.  

Representative Bruce Braley and the Republicans seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin are little known among Iowans, judging from the Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll. Selzer & Co. surveyed 809 Iowa adults for the Register between June 2 and 5 and found that 57 percent didn’t know enough about Braley to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him. Even among respondents living in the first Congressional district, 34 percent were unsure about Braley.

The two declared Republican candidates for Senate, David Young and Matt Whitaker, were unknown to 74 percent and 82 percent of respondents, respectively. (For the record, I doubt that 26 percent of Iowans are truly familiar with Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff. David Young is a fairly common name.) Some 88 percent said they were unsure about State Senator Joni Ernst, who is considered likely to run for Senate. Quinnipiac’s recent Iowa poll also indicated that few voters have an opinion about the likely Senate candidates.

The good news for all the candidates (including those not polled, such as Republican Sam Clovis) is that they have time to raise name recognition. Braley may also be relieved to know that of the respondents who expressed an opinion, 29 percent viewed him very or mostly favorably, while only 14 percent viewed him very or mostly unfavorably.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.

Conservative talk radio host and Morningside College professor Sam Clovis plans a press conference on June 10, Bret Hayworth reported for the Sioux City Journal yesterday. Clovis has previously said he may run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. He declined to specify whether he will announce a Senate campaign on Monday, but said he will disclose news “that affects my future” and “is a commitment for something down the road.” These comments seem to indicate that Clovis is leaning toward running:

“I’m a very principled man, a man of great integrity, so that is a skill set that I think is very much there,” he said.

“I’ve been a natural leader my whole life and I think those are, again, skills that are very lacking in Washington. Because we don’t have people who are willing to stand up and tell people the truth and then stick to their principles to make sure that happens. Everything seems to be about self-interest, nothing seems to be about the people of the country.”

Clovis added, “I’ve been an executive, I’ve been in business, non-profit, for-profit, education, military service second to none, a very distinguished career there. So I have all of the credentials that one would need to be a person that one would look to to lead and do the things that are necessary to lead this country, particularly if one pursued public office in the United States Senate.”

I have no idea whether Clovis can raise enough money to run a credible statewide campaign, but having hosted a radio show for the past two years, he probably has better communication skills than any other potential Republican candidate. As a self-described “red-meat conservative,” Clovis would compete aggressively in a primary. Both of the declared GOP Senate candidates have vulnerabilities: Matt Whitaker failed to stake out a clear position on “Obamacare,” and David Young (amazingly) was not familiar with the “fair tax” proposal.  

Senator Chuck Grassley’s former chief of staff David Young and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker have both officially entered the U.S. Senate race. Highlights from the candidates’ announcements and recent interviews are after the jump.

Any comments about the IA-Sen campaign are welcome in this thread.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz announced on twitter this morning, “I am humbled by all of the encouragement to run for Senate, but I love serving Iowans as Secretary of State… I intend to run for SOS.” Earlier this month, Schultz traveled to Washington to speak with Republicans about the open U.S. Senate seat. I’m not surprised he decided to stay in his current office, where he will not be challenged in the GOP primary. Fundraising has never been Schultz’s strong suit, and in a Senate race he would be competing against at least two Republicans with the potential to raise big money (Matt Whitaker and David Young), plus a possible self-funding candidate in Mark Jacobs.

Schultz’s likely opponent in the secretary of state’s race is Brad Anderson, who has been raising money and building a campaign organization with the support of many heavyweights in the Iowa Democratic establishment. Iowa Labor Commissioner Michael Mauro, who served four years as secretary of state before losing to Schultz in 2010, has not ruled out running in the Democratic primary next year.

UPDATE: Added Brad Anderson’s comment on today’s news after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: Schultz’s full written statement is below as well.

David Young confirmed over the holiday weekend that he has resigned as Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff in order to run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Tom Harkin. He’ll file the formal paperwork in June.

From where I’m sitting, Young takes more weaknesses than strengths into the GOP primary.

All of the candidates seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin will need to work hard on raising their name ID in the coming year, judging from the new Quinnipiac University poll. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,411 registered Iowa voters between May 15 and 21, producing a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percentage points. Representative Bruce Braley, who is so far unchallenged in the Democratic primary, is the best known of the Senate contenders, but even so, 57 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. Braley was in positive territory (27 percent favorable/14 percent unfavorable) among the respondents who expressed an opinion.

Quinnipiac asked Iowans about five potential Republican candidates for Senate. Although Secretary of State Matt Schultz holds a statewide office, 81 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. About 11 percent had a favorable view of Schultz, 7 percent unfavorable.

The other possible GOP candidates were even less well known. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker’s numbers: 8 percent favorable, 4 percent unfavorable, 86 percent haven’t heard enough. State Senator Joni Ernst: 5 percent favorable, 3 percent unfavorable, 92 percent haven’t heard enough. Iowa GOP chair A.J. Spiker: 2 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable, 91 percent haven’t heard enough. Senator Chuck Grassley’s staffer David Young: 3 percent favorable, 2 percent unfavorable, 94 percent haven’t heard enough.

Several of those Republicans are much more widely known among GOP activists. Still, the Quinnipiac poll indicates that the eventual nominee will have plenty of work to do before the June 2014 primary. Then again, the competitive GOP race will generate a lot of media coverage next spring, while Braley could be fighting to keep his name in the news without a rival on the Democratic side.

Speaking of Republican competition, Sioux City-based college professor and talk radio host Sam Clovis may run for Senate. He told Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal that he is “deeply steeped in the intellectual aspects of conservatism” and could appeal to the primary voters who are “ready for a red-meat conservative.” The Iowa Republican’s Craig Robinson reported that Young has resigned his position on Grassley’s staff, is buying a house in Dallas County, and has retained consultants and a pollster for a Senate race. Meanwhile, Whitaker is already moving to the right on “Obamacare.”

Time for another discussion thread on the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Recent news on the campaign is after the jump.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz flew to Washington, DC this morning to talk with Republicans about a possible U.S. Senate bid, Jennifer Jacobs reported for the Des Moines Register.

A few weeks ago, Republican blogger Craig Robinson put Schultz’s chances of running for Senate at 90 percent. I still think there’s a decent chance he will seek another term as secretary of state. A GOP Senate primary is no sure thing, especially with Schultz’s weakness in the fundraising department.

On the other hand, the secretary of state’s signature issue (photo ID requirements for election day voters) is extremely popular with the Republican base. Moreover, since the National Republican Senatorial Committee and outside groups are bound to target the U.S. Senate race, Schultz will have a lot of financial help if he wins the primary. Running for re-election to a lower-profile statewide office would put the pressure on him to keep up with Brad Anderson’s fundraising and organizing.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker confirmed last week that he will run for Senate, and his campaign website is now live.

Nice scoop by the Des Moines Register’s Jason Noble yesterday: Mark Jacobs, the former president and CEO of Reliant Energy in Texas, may seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa. Jacobs moved to West Des Moines last year and recently founded an education reform advocacy group called Reaching Higher Iowa.

I’ve posted Jacobs’ short bio after the jump, along with initial thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.

CORRECTION: The Register’s Jennifer Jacobs was the first to report yesterday that Mark Jacobs might be a Senate candidate. In addition to other potential candidates Bleeding Heartland has discussed before (Matt Whitaker, Matt Schultz, A.J. Spiker, Joni Ernst, Rod Roberts, Bob Vander Plaats, and David Young), her piece also mentioned West Des Moines Mayor Steve Gaer, orthopedic surgeon Stuart Weinstein, McDonald’s franchise owner Kevin O’Brien, and business owner Ron Langston, who served “as national director of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Minority Business Development Agency under President George W. Bush.”

SECOND CORRECTION: I missed that The Iowa Republican speculated about Jacobs as a Senate candidate a couple of weeks ago.  

Appearing on Simon Conway’s WHO radio program this afternoon, former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker announced that he is “taking steps to run” for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. You can listen to the podcast here. Whitaker plans to file paperwork with the Federal Election Commission this week and formally launch his campaign at a public event on June 3. His Senate campaign website is under construction. The Iowa Democratic Party is already poking fun at Whitaker’s first legislative proposal.

Also, today, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds told journalists that she has encouraged State Senator Joni Ernst to run for the U.S. Senate. You can listen to the audio at Radio Iowa, beginning several minutes into the clip. Reynolds said that she had encouraged Ernst to run for Montgomery County auditor nearly 10 years ago, and to run in the Iowa Senate special election to replace Reynolds.

At this point, I’ll be surprised if Ernst decides against running. Sean Sullivan reported at the Washington Post’s blog today that her “stock is high among Republican Gov. Terry Branstad’s allies.” Sullivan noticed an approving tweet about Ernst from Brad Dayspring of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, though that’s far from a formal endorsement.

Ernst has little fundraising experience, but if Branstad activates his donor network, she could raise a lot of money for a Senate campaign. By the same token, Whitaker has strong fundraising potential even though he’s never been a candidate for office before. CORRECTION: I forgot that Whitaker ran for state treasurer in 2002. Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz would almost certainly be at a financial disadvantage in the Republican primary compared to Whitaker and Ernst, if he goes for Senate rather than for re-election to his current office. Then again, he is probably better known among the Iowa GOP base, which loves his drive for voter ID laws.

Any comments about the IA-Sen race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added more news after the jump.

The more I think about Steve King’s Friday night announcement that he will not run for U.S. Senate in 2014, the more I suspect that someone rushed him into that decision.

Representative Steve King announced on twitter Friday night, “I will not run for Senate in 2014. A Senate race takes me out of urgent battles in Congress that can’t wait until 2015. Many thanks to all.”

Those battles include immigration reform, where King is a leading voice House Republican voice against any path to legal residency or citizenship. He has also pledged to block the implementation of the 2010 health care reform law.

King’s decision should not surprise anyone. He could not win a statewide election for any office in Iowa. I believe that if his internal polling showed the “path to victory” he claimed to see, he would be in the Senate race already. In contrast, he is favored to hold the Republican-leaning fourth Congressional district for the next decade. His likely Democratic opponent Jim Mowrer will face a steep uphill battle.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. The statement posted on King’s Congressional campaign website is after the jump.

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey announced on twitter this morning, “I have decided not to run for US #Senate. Thx for many kind, encouraging words. Hoping Congr King runs. Other good R candidates as well.”

That’s bad news for State Representative Pat Grassley, rumored to be interested in the secretary of agriculture job if Northey had run for Senate.

Thousands of Democrats share Northey’s hope that Representative Steve King will run, but it’s not going to happen. Really. I got a kick out of his comments yesterday, though.

“There’s a lot of support to do this, and I just don’t know the answer. And I’m embarrassed that I don’t know the answer,” he said with a laugh.  He said he doesn’t know when he’ll make a decision.

He said he never expected to still be undecided in May. “Things are stacking up on me so fast,  I hardly have time to deal with the issue,” the Kiron Republican said.  He cited events pending in Congress, especially the farm bill and the immigration issue.

If I compiled a list of things Steve King should be embarrassed about, being late to decide on the Senate race wouldn’t make the top 20.

Matt Whitaker seems poised to launch a Senate campaign soon. Other Republicans considering the race include State Senator Joni Ernst, Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff David Young, and former State Representative Rod Roberts.

UPDATE: Added more comments from Northey below.

Successful campaigns require money and boots on the ground. Representative Bruce Braley is already trying to recruit the small donor and volunteer army he’ll need for next year’s U.S. Senate election.

Without Democratic primary competition or a Republican candidate to define yet, Braley can’t fire up his base by pointing out his opponent’s flaws. Instead, he is using online petitions to identify and energize supporters. So far, those petitions are narrowly focused on issues important to activist groups–in contrast to the broad themes of Braley’s message to Iowa voters as a whole.  

I expect at least one former Republican state legislator to run for the open U.S. Senate seat next year. Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals Director Rod Roberts told The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall that he is seriously considering the race.

“A few months ago I didn’t anticipate that running for the U.S. Senate would be a real possibility,” Roberts said. “Like most folks, I assumed either Congressman Latham or Congressman King would run. But, as the odds have increased that neither congressman will run, more people have encouraged me to think about it. At this point, I’d say I’m certainly considering the opportunity, and I’m planning to continue talking with family, friends and supporters in the coming weeks.”

Roberts represented the Carroll area in the Iowa House for a decade before running for governor in 2010. He was an adequate campaigner, but his principal role in my opinion was as stalking horse for Terry Branstad during the Republican primary. On the other hand, Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns believes Roberts would be the ideal Senate candidate for the GOP to run against Democrat Bruce Braley.

Any comments about the IA-Sen campaign are welcome in this thread. According to Hall’s latest post, State Senator Joni Ernst “has set a timeline of about 30 days to make a decision” about the Senate race. Bob Vander Plaats told the Sioux City Journal he believes Latham may change his mind about not seeking the Senate seat if Steve King decides to stay in IA-04, as expected.

UPDATE: In the unlikely event that Rod Roberts wins the Senate nomination, I think his move to reduce nursing home inspectors would become a general election campaign issue.

Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff, David Young, “has reached out to Hawkeye State donors and GOP power brokers to gauge support” for a U.S. Senate campaign, Alexander Burns reported at Politico today, citing unnamed Republican sources.

Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker expressed interest in Iowa’s Senate seat on the day Senator Tom Harkin announced his retirement plans, and it appears the Republican is close to launching a campaign. WHO-TV’s Dave Price noticed today that there’s a MattWhitaker.org website. For now, the only content is a picture of Whitaker, an announcement that “MattWhitaker.org is coming soon,” and a link you can click to sign up for e-mails.

Whitaker likely won’t clear the Republican primary field, but he should have no trouble raising a lot of money for a Senate campaign. A former University of Iowa football player, he served as U.S. attorney for the southern district of Iowa during George W. Bush’s administration. He is now a managing partner in the Des Moines law firm Whitaker Hagenow & Gustoff LLP. The other senior partners are Iowa House Majority Whip Chris Hagenow and William Gustoff, whom Governor Terry Branstad tried to appoint to the State Judicial Nominating Commission. Branstad’s legal counsel Brenna Findley joined the Whitaker Hagenow law firm in 2010, while she was campaigning for Iowa attorney general.

Earlier this month, Whitaker sparred with Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Braley’s campaign manager Jeff Link on Dave Price’s Sunday morning television show. He said he was getting a lot of encouragement to run for Senate from Republicans all over Iowa.

UPDATE: Republican blogger Craig Robinson predicts that in a GOP primary, Whitaker’s “decision to represent Zach Edwards […] could come back to haunt him.” In early 2012, Edwards was arrested and charged with attempting identity theft against Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz. He ended up pleading guilty to a misdemeanor. Schultz is also thinking about running for the U.S. Senate seat.

SECOND UPDATE: Here are Whitaker’s statistics as a football player.

Last week, Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) voted for a bill that would force the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. He did not send out any press release explaining that vote.

A Bleeding Heartland reader contacted Braley about his support for Keystone XL and shared the congressman’s reply. I’ve posted it after the jump, along with information challenging some of Braley’s assertions.

Shortly after Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds ruled out running for U.S. Senate next year, Republican State Senator Joni Ernst posted on Facebook, “I will be considering a run for US Senate.”

Today Ernst and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey discussed the factors influencing their decision on whether to run for Senate.

Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds announced today via e-mail that she will not run for U.S. Senate in 2014. It’s a smart decision.

UPDATE: Added thoughts about other possible Republican candidates below.

In late February, Representative Tom Latham (R, IA-03) indicated that he did not plan to run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014. I took his statement at face value, especially since he told a conservative radio host that lack of interest in campaigning steered him away from a Senate race that otherwise “was a very, very good opportunity.”

Some politics watchers noted that Latham carefully wrote in his e-mail to supporters, “I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me, at a time when our nation desperately needs less campaigning and more leadership.” In other words, he didn’t explicitly rule out joining the Senate race later. Maybe those skeptics were on to something.

The breaking news in Iowa politics this afternoon is Senator Tom Harkin “officially” endorsing Representative Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate. Why this is supposed to be newsworthy, I can’t explain.

The under-the-radar but more important news is that during a meeting of the House Energy and Commerce Committee this week, Braley joined conservative Democrats and all the Republicans to vote for H.R. 3, a bill mandating approval of the Keystone XL pipeline. An Energy and Commerce Committee press release explaining the purpose of this bill is after the jump.

For now let’s leave aside the many environmental arguments against building the Keystone XL pipeline, and the big problems with the State Department’s draft environmental impact statement on the project.

Braley is smart enough to know that Keystone XL won’t create the thousands of jobs proponents claim. In fact, the pipeline is more likely to increase than decrease gasoline prices in the Midwest. Maybe Braley’s longstanding support for Keystone XL is a gesture toward the labor unions that support the project, or maybe it’s more convenient to vote for fake jobs than to explain why the jobs propaganda is wrong. Most of the House Democrats on the Energy and Commerce Committee oppose this bill. Braley’s companions, aside from the committee Republicans, were John Barrow of Georgia, Gene Green of Texas, and Jim Matheson of Utah. They aren’t pro-labor but have extremely poor voting records on the environment, a lot worse than Braley’s.

Harkin has always been a strong supporter of organized labor, but he didn’t let that cloud his judgment on Keystone XL. He has voted against that project repeatedly, most recently during the Senate’s federal budget “vote-o-rama” last month. Iowa will be worse off without Harkin in the Senate.

UPDATE: Corrected the second paragraph to note that Braley voted for this bill when the full Energy and Commerce Committee approved it on April 17, not during the subcommittee meeting the previous day. Corrected the fourth paragraph to note that three other House Democrats supported the bill during the full committee vote. Added more details on the case against this bill after the jump.  

This week a “gang of eight” U.S. senators (four from each party) released an immigration reform bill. Jordan Fabian of ABC News published a good overview of the proposal, while Ted Hesson explained how the bill addresses seven of the “most-asked” questions about immigration reform.

Representative Steve King has long opposed creating any path to legal residence or citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Among U.S. House Republicans, he has been the loudest voice pushing back against the “gang of eight.” In the process, King reminded everyone why the GOP establishment will be so relieved when he finally acknowledges that he’s not running for U.S. Senate next year.

UPDATE: Added an official statement from King below.

Republicans thinking about running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year are still in a holding pattern, waiting for Representative Steve King to make up his mind. Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal just dropped his “King Meter” from 63 to 58, reflecting only a slightly better than 50-50 chance that King will run for Senate. If Bleeding Heartland had a King Meter, it would have started at zero and stayed there.

Today former GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Gross predicted that neither King nor two other prominent Iowa Republicans will run for the Senate in 2014.

President Barack Obama formally presented his draft budget for fiscal year 2014 today. Click through for details, but here are the top numbers:

The $1.058 trillion budget for fiscal year 2014 – which arrived on Capitol Hill about two months late – includes $3.77 trillion in total spending, including entitlements.

It would add $5.3 trillion in new deficit spending over 10 years and increase spending in 2014 by $160 billion compared to current law.

Statements from Representatives Dave Loebsack, Tom Latham, and Steve King are after the jump, along with press releases from several Iowa advocacy groups. I am seeking comment on the president’s budget from all the members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation and will update this post as needed. Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement called attention to the fact that Representative Bruce Braley has not explained his position on changing the Social Security cost of living adjustment to calculate benefits with a chained consumer price index. The president’s budget includes the “chained CPI” proposal, a truly terrible idea. The AARP said today it is “deeply dismayed that President Obama would propose cutting the benefits of current and future Social Security recipients, including children, widows, veterans and people with disabilities, to reduce the deficit.”

Also today, the U.S. Postal Service announced that it has delayed plans to cancel Saturday mail delivery. Comments from Loebsack and Representative Bruce Braley are at the end of this post. Both of them had strongly criticized the idea when floated in February.  

Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program today, Representative Steve King (IA-04) acknowledged that the open U.S. Senate race will be a “slight uphill battle” for any Republican, but asserted that he can see a “path to victory” if he decides to run.

I am still 100 percent convinced that King will opt out of the Senate race eventually, citing personal reasons (not political reality). Nevertheless, his comments on the Senate race are worth reading closely, so I’ve enclosed them below. You can watch the whole interview or read the full transcript here.

King claimed to be unable to think of any positions he has taken that are “out of step with Iowans.” Near the end of this post, I’ve suggested two issues that would become central features in Bruce Braley’s case against King.

Representative Bruce Braley’s campaign for U.S. Senate rolled out its largest batch of endorsements today: 71 state legislators. All 26 Iowa Senate Democrats plus 45 of the 47 Iowa House Democrats are named in the press release I’ve posted after the jump. For some reason, Iowa House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy are not in this group. Murphy is running for the first Congressional district seat Braley is vacating.

Earlier this week, Braley’s campaign announced that it raised more than $1 million during the first quarter. That is a solid number, and I’ll be interested to see how the numbers break own (contributions from individuals vs PACs, for instance). Bleeding Heartland will publish a detailed roundup of Iowa Congressional fundraising after all the candidates have filed their reports with the Federal Election Commission. Those reports are due April 15.

Representative Bruce Braley’s campaign for the U.S. Senate has steadily rolled out endorsements this month. Eight labor unions have backed Braley’s Senate bid so far, joined today by Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.

Since Braley lacks any competition in the Democratic primary, these endorsements aren’t newsworthy at face value. However, a closer look at the announcements points to five major themes the Braley campaign will highlight over the next 19 months.

UPDATE: Added a sixth theme below.

Representative Steve King told reporters in Des Moines today that the chances he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 are “a little more than 50-50.” He dropped similar hints last month and has indicated to the Sioux City Journal’s Bret Hayworth that he’s leaning toward running as well.

I don’t care how many times King insists that he is carefully analyzing the pros and cons of a U.S. Senate bid. He’s neither dumb enough nor brave enough to leave the safe confines of Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

Ten years ago, President George W. Bush made the disastrous mistake of taking this country to war against Iraq. I’ve posted some links about the costs and casualties of war after the jump.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread. I appreciate the work and commitment of those who tried to derail the speeding train toward invasion, and of those who protested the war after it began. I did nothing to stop the war in Iraq–just sat in a rocking chair cradling a new baby, feeling horrified while watching the news on television.

Yesterday the U.S. House approved a bill seeking to prevent the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services from allowing states to lift work requirements for federal welfare benefits. Republican arguments for the bill echoed false claims from Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.  

Iowa’s largest labor union, AFSCME Iowa Council 61, announced its endorsement of Representative Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate yesterday. A press release from the Braley campaign noted that two other labor unions have previously announced their support: Iowa State Council of Machinists and the Great Plains Laborers’ District Council. As a member of Congress, Braley has a strong voting record on labor rights, as does retiring Senator Tom Harkin.

Endorsements this early in the cycle are another sign that Braley will not face real competition for the Democratic nomination next year. During Iowa Democrats’ last hard-fought statewide primary, the larger labor unions endorsed either Mike Blouin or Chet Culver for governor only a few months before the 2006 primary.

UPDATE: The non-profit, non-partisan advocacy group Council for a Livable World endorsed Braley for Senate on March 14. I’ve added their press release and some background after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: Service Employees International Union Iowa – Local 199 endorsed Braley for Senate on March 15. A press release from the campaign comments, “SEIU Local 199 represents over 5,000 nurses, school employees, childcare workers, and county employees across the state of Iowa.”

State Senator Brad Zaun announced today that he will not run for the open U.S. Senate seat in 2014 (hat tip to WHO-TV’s Dave Price).

During 2011 and 2012, the Iowa Senate was our state’s firewall against the social conservative agenda. The Republican-controlled Iowa House passed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, sweeping limits on abortion rights (twice), a “stand your ground” bill and a constitutional amendment that would invalidate virtually all restrictions on guns. All of those bills died in the Democratic-controlled state Senate.

Social issues have never been a priority for Iowa House leaders. They blocked a floor vote on a “personhood” bill in 2011 and steered clear of extremist crusades like impeaching Iowa Supreme Court justices and replacing gun permit laws with “constitutional carry.” Still, I expected House Republicans to cover the usual bases during this year’s legislative session.

Instead, almost every high-profile bill on so-called family values failed to win House committee approval and therefore died in the legislature’s first funnel deadline last Friday. That includes some mainstream conservative efforts as well as freak show bills like ending no-fault divorce or barring county recorders from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

Most amazing to me, House Republicans no longer have the votes to pass a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman.  

Senator Chuck Grassley doesn’t plan to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, he told John Stanton of BuzzFeed.com this week. He has a favored candidate in mind, but plans to keep that view to himself:

Despite his role as the elder statesman of the party, Grassley said he’s not getting seriously involved in the primary: though he has spoken to one candidate. “I said to him, ‘You’re the only one I’m going to encourage to run, I’m not going to tell anyone they shouldn’t run.’ Because everyone I’ve heard talked about is a viable candidate … that’s as far as I’m going to go.

Grassley was wise not to discount Representative Steve King’s prospects; respect from elder statesmen like him and Governor Terry Branstad will make it easier for King to bow out of the Senate race without looking chicken.

I would guess that Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey is the person Grassley has encouraged to run for Senate. Northey is thinking about the race, but I suspect that his past support for a gasoline tax would become a problem in a GOP primary.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal has been covering King for some time. He believes that King is more likely than not to run for Senate.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker confirmed that he is thinking about running for Senate. Good luck with that. The Ron Paul machine is well-organized but probably not large enough to deliver victory in a statewide primary.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Jennifer Jacobs’ latest piece speculating on GOP candidates for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat includes a classic comment from former Mitt Romney strategist and marriage equality supporter David Kochel: “When I hear names like Steve Deace and Bob Vander Plaats for Senate, it reminds me of the bar scene in ‘Star Wars.'”

Jacobs also mentioned one name I hadn’t heard before in this context: State Senator Mark Chelgren. He is up for re-election in the Democratic-leaning Ottumwa area next year, so he would have to give up his Iowa Senate seat in order to seek the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

This week an anonymous group calling itself “Iowa Republicans for Truth” declared war against The Iowa Republican blog and its publisher, Craig Robinson. More details are after the jump. I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on the kerfuffle.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user conservative demo mentioned Ed Tibbetts’ piece for the Quad-City Times on the battle brewing inside the Scott County Republican Party. I’ve added excerpts below.  

Conservative talk radio host Steve Deace told Fox News today that he may run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 if Representative Steve King passes on the race. Deace said King is uniquely qualified to “unite the Rand Paul faction and the Mike Huckabee faction of the grassroots activists.” In his opinion, neither Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds nor “anybody connected to Terry Branstad” can unite Iowa Republicans.

Reynolds confirmed on a conference call with reporters today that she will “take a serious look” at the Senate race. According to Branstad’s communications director Tim Albrecht, Reynolds would not run against King in a GOP primary. UPDATE: The National Journal quotes skeptical Iowa Republican insiders on Reynolds as a Senate candidate.

I am still confident that King will opt out of the Senate race. In that case, a far-right candidate would be well positioned to beat Reynolds in a primary, but I’m not sure that Deace is that person. Spin your own IA-Sen scenarios in this thread.

UPDATE: Bruce Braley’s campaign has started taking shots at King already.

Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns argues that former State Representative Rod Roberts, now the director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals, would be the best candidate Republicans could field against Braley. I don’t think so, although Roberts was a good stalking horse for Branstad in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey will “strongly consider” running for Senate, but only if King does not run. His past support for a gasoline tax increase to pay for road work would be a problem for him in a Republican primary. Also, the conservative base may not trust him, since he has no record on most issues not related to agriculture.

I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on Deace as a possible candidate.