While Governor Chet Culver visited Iowa reservists serving in Iraq this week, several developments back home may affect his re-election campaign.

Links and analysis are after the jump.  

I expected Terry Branstad to drive all of the lesser-known Republicans out of the governor’s race. To my surprise, State Representative Rod Roberts has not followed the lead of Paul McKinley, Christian Fong, Jerry Behn and Chris Rants. Roberts told WHO’s Dave Price last weekend that he is staying in the governor’s race all the way to the June primary.

Roberts acknowledges the other two men have raised a LOT more money and are better known. After all, Branstad has been governor 4 terms before. [Bob] Vander Plaats has run for governor 3 times. Roberts plans on not just going after typical Republican primary voters to make up for his lack of recognition (he also added that he will just have to outwork the other 2). He plans on getting Democrats and Independents who are unhappy with the money Governor Chet Culver has spent since he took over and who are also unhappy with the overall direction of the state. Roberts told me this will be the year for the outsider. And he said he will be the outsider.

Join me after the jump for closer look at Roberts and his campaign strategy. I doubt he has any chance of winning the primary, but his presence in the race will probably help Branstad.

Ed Fallon confirmed this week that he is trying to recruit a primary challenger against Governor Chet Culver. Fallon has been sounding the alarm about Culver’s re-election prospects for some time. He now believes Culver will lose to Terry Branstad, and Iowa Democrats would have a better chance nominating someone else for governor.

I voted for Fallon in the 2006 gubernatorial primary and wrote a short book’s worth of posts at this blog on why I supported his 2008 primary challenge to Congressman Leonard Boswell.

This time, I think his efforts are misguided, and I explain why after the jump.  

Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen released a new poll of the Iowa governor and U.S. Senate races today. Rasmussen surveyed 500 “likely Iowa voters” on February 18.

Given Rasmussen’s usual “house effect” favoring Republican candidates, I expected the numbers to be worse for Democrats than other recent Iowa polling. Instead, they were comparable to last week’s Research 2000 Iowa poll for KCCI-TV and the Selzer and Co. poll for the Des Moines Register, which was conducted three weeks ago.

Like the other pollsters, Rasmussen found Governor Chet Culver well behind Republican front-runner Terry Branstad. Like Research 2000, Rasmussen found Senator Chuck Grassley above 50 percent against Democratic challengers, but well below Grassley’s usual re-election numbers and even below the numbers Rasmussen found for Grassley in late January.

More details are after the jump.

Research 2000 conducted an Iowa poll of 600 “likely voters who vote regularly in state elections” for KCCI-TV, the CBS affiliate in Des Moines. The poll was in the field from February 15 to 17, and KCCI published the results on its website yesterday.

It’s not a good poll for Governor Chet Culver, but it’s less bad than the Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll. Chuck Grassley has a comfortable lead in the Senate race, but not the kind of margin he has enjoyed against previous Democratic opponents.

Click here for all the numbers, and join me after the jump for some analysis.

Rod Boshart has the story:

Sioux City lawmaker Christopher Rants announced today that he is ending his quest to become governor of Iowa.

“Today I am ending my campaign for the office of governor,” Rants said in an e-mail he entitled as his “last Rants & Raves” column. “I’ve enjoyed meeting and learning from so many Iowans I’ve encountered on my 54,346-mile journey around our state.

“It has been a rewarding experience for me, and I hope that I’ve given my fellow Republicans some ideas to consider as they shape an agenda for the 2010 election,” he added. […]

“I continued out of a belief that campaigns should be about issues and ideas, and it was worth the effort to shape the public debate around issues that concern my supporters and me,” he added. “It is now clear that those opportunities for such a debate are not materializing, and I cannot in good conscience accept or solicit support for an effort I know will be ultimately unsuccessful.”

In the e-mail, Rants also confirmed that he won’t run for re-election to the Iowa House. You can read the whole thing at the Rants 2010 website.

Rants has campaigned hard since announcing his gubernatorial bid last June, but his fundraising dried up after former Governor Terry Branstad entered the race. Rants used his campaign website to expose Branstad’s record of fiscal mismanagement, and he called attention flip-flops on funding the Iowa State Patrol from the Road Use Tax Fund, but that seemed to have little effect.

Rants talked more about substantive policy issues than any other Republican candidate, and appeared at dozens of GOP events around the state, but just couldn’t get any traction in the race. A series of “debates” against Jonathan Narcisse in December and January didn’t attract much media attention. Rants then tried to distinguish himself on the marriage issue by vowing to veto every piece of legislation that hits his desk, including the state budget, until the legislature votes on a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman. Still, the Iowa Family Policy Center endorsed Bob Vander Plaats.

Rants once seemed likely to be a heavyweight contender for governor someday, but that was not to be.

Rants’ departure leaves three Republican candidates for governor: Branstad, Vander Plaats, and State Representative Rod Roberts of Carroll. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roberts go before the primary, but he insisted in December that he would not drop out. Roberts started running radio advertising last month.

I was surprised not to see Republican primary numbers from the Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll. Maybe they plan to release those this weekend.

The latest Iowa poll by Selzer and Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Chet Culver’s approval rating at a new low of 36 percent. Only 34 percent of respondents said Iowa is headed in the right direction, while 57 percent said the state is on the wrong track. The poll was in the field from January 31 to February 3 and surveyed 805 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Culver’s approval rating fell to 36 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll from September had Culver in positive territory, with 50 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval. The Des Moines Register’s November poll had Culver with 40 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

The Des Moines Register noted that since September, Culver’s approval among Democrats has fallen from 72 percent to 57 percent, while Senator Tom Harkin’s approval among Democrats was measured at 77 percent in both polls.

The economic recession is probably a major factor in Culver’s slide. Although the state’s eight leading economic indicators were measured in positive territory in December 2009 (for the first time since April 2007), employment remains weak. Iowa’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in December 2009, and Iowa Workforce Development found,

Compared to last December, the Iowa economy has lost 40,100 jobs. Manufacturing still leads all sectors in terms of losses, down 19,900 over the year. Trade and transportation and construction followed with losses of 7,900 and 7,700, respectively. Education and health services remained the most resilient sector, adding 2,600 jobs since December 2008.

The slow economy has caused state revenues to fall below projections, which prompted Culver to make a 10 percent across-the-board cut in current-year spending in October. Spending cuts are rarely popular with anyone.

Side note: I wondered last fall whether the scandal surrounding Iowa’s film tax credit, which broke in September, would hurt Culver. I was surprised to see that 61 percent of respondents in the Des Moines Register’s poll think the film tax credit is “good for the state.” The poll question didn’t mention how much the film tax credit has cost compared to the economic impact. I agree with economist Dave Swenson, who thinks the program was flawed from the start.

The latest Register survey also polled Culver against the four Republican challengers. (This portion of the poll, like the approval numbers, is in the print version of the Sunday Des Moines Register but hasn’t appeared on the website yet. I will update this post with a link when that becomes available. UPDATE: Here is the link.) The hypothetical matchups come from a subset of 531 “likely voters,” producing a slightly higher margin of error: plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Former Governor Terry Branstad remains the strongest challenger, beating Culver 53 percent to 33 percent. Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver 43 percent to 40 percent. Strangely, Culver trailed Branstad and Vander Plaats by slightly larger margins in the Register’s November poll, even though his approval rating was a little higher then. Culver barely beats the other Republicans, who are less well known. He leads State Representative Chris Rants 41 percent to 37 percent and State Representative Rod Roberts 41 percent to 36 percent.

Needless to say, it’s never a good sign when an incumbent governor is below 40 percent approval and barely breaks 40 percent against any challenger. Culver needs to make up ground this year in order to be re-elected. The right direction/wrong track numbers show that voters under 35 were more likely than the overall population to think things are going in the right direction, but most of the electorate in November will be over 35.

Culver has chances to improve his standing this year. If the state’s leading economic indicators continue a positive trend, the job market may improve. Also, spending on infrastructure projects supported by the I-JOBS state bonding initiative will pick up in the spring and summer. So far nearly $600 million in I-JOBS money has been awarded, but only $20.7 million has been spent. As the projects take shape, more Iowans will be employed and more people will see the benefits to their communities.

On the political side, Branstad hasn’t received much scrutiny from the media yet, but when the gubernatorial campaign heats up, his accountability problem may become more apparent. A hard-fought Republican primary will exacerbate the rift between moderates and conservatives. Some conservatives have already vowed not to support Branstad if he is the GOP nominee. More focus on the inconsistencies between candidate Branstad and Governor Branstad may help Culver’s standing with Democrats and independents.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich says Culver may as well start shopping his resume around, but John Deeth argues that Culver is not dead yet.

SECOND UPDATE: The latest poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog and the Republican Concordia group found Branstad leading Culver 57 percent to 29 percent and Vander Plaats leading Culver 43 percent to 39 percent. I don’t know much about the firm that conducted that poll, and I would put more stock in Selzer’s numbers for the Des Moines Register.

THIRD UPDATE: The Iowa Democratic Party’s statement on this poll is a bit odd. More on that after the jump.

To depressed Democrats out there, I offer six silver linings of a Branstad candidacy.

FINAL UPDATE: This poll prompted Swing State Project to change its rating of this race from tossup to lean Republican.

The coming week will be busy at the state capitol, because February 12 is the first “funnel” date. All bills excluding appropriations bills that have not been approved by at least one committee by February 12 will be dead for the 2010 session, unless something extraordinary happens.

Also, Iowa House Republicans are expected to try to suspend the rules this week to force consideration of a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. If last April’s events are any guide, they can expect help from two Iowa House Democrats: Geri Huser and Dolores Mertz. Meanwhile, Mertz is working with a group of Republicans on a constitutional amendment that would “recognize human eggs as persons worthy of legal protection.” Such an amendment would outlaw abortion and probably some forms of birth control as well.

With the compressed legislative calendar and severe budget restraints, there may be fewer bills passed in 2010 than in previous sessions. If you’re keeping your eye on any bill, let us know in this thread. I hope the Iowa Senate Labor and Business Relations Committee will pass Senate File 2112, introduced by Senator Pam Jochum, on “workplace accommodations for employees who express breast milk.” It’s already cleared the subcommittee. Last hear State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad introduced a similar measure in the Iowa House, and I think there’s a decent chance of getting this bill through the House Labor Committee. Employers also benefit from practices that make it easier for their employees to continue breastfeeding.

Jochum is an all-around outstanding legislator. If I lived in the first district, she would definitely have my vote for Congress whenever Bruce Braley decides to run for U.S. Senate.

This thread is for anything on your mind this weekend. Am I the only one out there who doesn’t care who wins the Superbowl?

After the jump I’ve posted details on other Iowa political events scheduled for this week.

Iowa Republicans have been throwing around misleading talking points about the I-JOBS program since the Iowa legislature approved the infrastructure bonding initiative last spring. I’m still waiting for Republicans to address some basic questions, like where would they have found $45 million for flood recovery efforts in Linn County without I-JOBS? What was their plan for repairing ten flood-damaged structures at the University of Iowa, if they didn’t want to issue $100 million in state bonds to leverage $500 million in federal funds to rebuild the campus?

Some Republicans have called for delaying infrastructure projects until we have enough cash to pay for them up front, but Iowa’s worst-ever flooding hit the state during the most severe national recession since World War II. There was no realistic way to pay for flood recovery efforts without state borrowing. Even David Yepsen, a notorious skeptic about state spending, could see that. During the summer of 2008, Iowa State University economist Dave Swenson pointed out, “When you borrow money, that allows you to fix things as quickly as possible,” he said. “You can’t move as quickly on a ‘pay-as-you go’ basis.” Yet every Republican in the legislature voted against borrowing money to repair the damage from the devastating 2008 floods.

In addition to the flood recovery funds allocated to Linn County and the University of Iowa, the I-JOBS program included $118.5 million for “reconstruction of local public buildings and flood control prevention,” to be awarded by competitive grants. It wasn’t enough to fully meet local infrastructure needs across the state; requests for that portion of the I-JOBS money totaled $333.6 million. But it was a good start.

Republicans recently seized on a new talking point: some I-JOBS money is supposedly being spent on projects unrelated to disaster recovery. By way of example, State Representative Pat Grassley mentioned the community center in the Des Moines suburb of Windsor Heights. I contacted Windsor Heights City Manager Marketa George Oliver about this allegation, and she forwarded a copy of a letter from Mayor Jerry Sullivan to Grassley. You can view the whole letter here, but the small print is hard to read, so here’s the relevant excerpt (emphasis in original):

The City is currently constructing a new Community Center. The structure that used to be in [Colby Park] at this location was originally built in a flood plain and was repeatedly flooded. It sustained flood damage year after year and flood after flood. The new structure is being built out of the flood plain and protected from any future flooding, mitigating the effects of a natural disaster. The Center, once finished, will be a heating/cooling facility in the event of prolonged power outages, which is much-needed in our region. In the event of natural disasters, it will also be available as temporary housing. […]

The I-Jobs program gave us the ability to make a substantial investment in mitigating and responding to natural disasters. The program was also able to support our efforts in a timely manner, unlike many other grants programs.

Oliver explained to me that a heating/cooling center is a place residents without power can go during a cold spell or dangerous heat wave.

Republicans will continue to attack the I-JOBS program during this year’s campaigns for governor and state legislature. Democrats need to be ready to defend these infrastructure investments, because journalists will sometimes pass along ill-informed claims like Grassley’s without providing context or an opposing view. In addition, some Republican candidates may falsely suggest that I-JOBS pays for ongoing spending programs instead of capital projects, like bridge and sewer repairs. Maybe they are thinking of Republican Terry Branstad, who borrowed money to solve the state’s cash flow problems in 1992.

The Des Moines Register dinged Governor Chet Culver recently for not scheduling as many press conferences and public appearances as Terry Branstad and Tom Vilsack did as governor, but Culver’s been active around the state since he submitted his draft budget to the legislature last week.

Lots of links are after the jump, along with an update on Jonathan Narcisse, who supported Culver in 2006 but recently launched his own gubernatorial campaign.

Anyone following the Iowa governor’s race must read Todd Dorman’s recent interview with Republican front-runner Terry Branstad. The Branstad so many Iowans remember from his four terms as governor shines through.

Branstad is at his most incoherent when speaking about gay marriage, but his answer to an open-ended question about the state budget was also revealing. The whole interview is worth your time. I discuss a few of my favorite excerpts after the jump.

In a private meeting last October, Terry Branstad warned social conservatives that gay marriage was “not going to be a central issue” in the gubernatorial campaign, and that Republicans “have to use finesse, and not overplay our hand.”

Since Branstad officially launched his candidacy last week, we’re starting to see how he intends to “finesse” the marriage issue before the Republican primary in June.

Share caucus stories from today or anything else on your mind in this thread.

Looking around the multi-purpose room at Clive Elementary School today, I could not believe that 293 caucus-goers, plus a bunch of observers and media, squeezed in there on January 3, 2008. That was insane. Today only eight Democrats showed up in Windsor Heights 2 today, and that was more than the number who showed up in Windsor Heights 1 and 3.

One woman at my caucus brought a flier for Senate candidate Roxanne Conlin encouraging people to sign up to receive text messages from the campaign. They’re asking Democrats to send a text message to 64336 indicating their most important issue for 2010 (text A for jobs, B for health care, C for the environment, D for energy, E for education, and F to share some other issue). Then the campaign has your cell phone number and knows what you’re especially interested in.

I get the sense that the Republican caucuses were more lively today because of the contested primaries for governor and Congress (in IA-02 and IA-03). At some caucuses, supporters have a chance to speak on behalf of their favorite candidates. Also, the campaigns have an interest in getting their supporters elected as delegates to county conventions, and later to district conventions, in case no one gets 35 percent of the vote in the June primary. (Ed Fallon’s gubernatorial campaign urged its supporters to attend the 2006 off-year caucuses for that reason.) With five Republicans competing for the chance to face Leonard Boswell, the GOP primary in IA-03 could easily be decided at a district convention. That’s how Steve King won the Republican nomination for IA-05 in 2002.

The floor is yours.

Terry Branstad officially launched his gubernatorial campaign this week at the State Historical Building. I enjoyed the imagery of a politician from a past era standing in front of a mammoth skeleton.

Branstad’s promises on spending cuts and jobs created look unrealistic in light of his record as governor, though.  

Four years ago, Chris Rants was one of Iowa’s most powerful political figures. He won an Iowa House seat in his 20s and rose to the position of speaker in his mid-30s. But politics can be a tough business, as Rants learned when the Republican House caucus lost its majority in 2006 and replaced him as leader after losing more seats in 2008.

Since launching his gubernatorial bid last summer, Rants has logged more than 45,000 miles and discussed policies in more depth than anyone else in the field. However, the powers that be in the Iowa GOP don’t reward effort or substance. This week Rants announced that his campaign raised just $78,000 in 2009 and had $6,400 on hand at the end of December. Even State Representative Rod Roberts ended the year in a stronger financial position despite having a lower profile and entering the race later.

Rants knows how to raise money, as you can see from the Rants for State House Committee filings from the last five years (enter “Rants” in this search engine). During October 2008, ethanol baron Bruce Rastetter wrote Rants checks for $30,000 and $70,000. In other words, one major donor gave the then House minority leader more money in one month than Rants managed to raise in half a year for his gubernatorial campaign. Speaking to IowaPolitics.com,

Rants said fundraising froze and pledges never came through after [Terry] Branstad got into the race in mid-October. “The donor community just clammed up,” he said. “We couldn’t compete.”

Rants said most of his campaign finance money was spent on staff, research, Web development and just keeping his campaign going since last spring. The only ads he placed were online.

“The reality is Terry Branstad will raise more money,” Rants said. “But we will raise more issues. …If issues matter, we’ll have a good spring.”

Rants insists he is in the governor’s race for the duration and won’t seek re-election to the Iowa House. On one level I admire him for not packing it in like Christian Fong did after the money dried up. He is also correct to highlight the many contrasts between Branstad’s current campaign rhetoric and his record as governor.

But Rants’ experience underscores the importance of treating people well. As House speaker, Rants had a reputation for being a bully (or “intense,” driven and “abrupt,” as some of his friends have put it). When you’re up, maybe it works to be feared rather than loved. But when you’re down, people won’t be there for you. After all his years of service in the legislature, Rants has not found a single current or former Iowa House member to endorse his gubernatorial campaign, to my knowledge. Even Republicans will admit that Branstad isn’t too sharp and was a mediocre governor, but he is amiable and connects well with people on a personal level.

Ambitious pols everywhere, take note.

LATE UPDATE: Rants discussed his money problems with The Iowa Republican:

Rants admitted that, once former Governor Terry Branstad entered the race, his ability to raise funds ceased. He said a number of pledges to his campaign never came in, his phone calls were not returned, and raising funds became nearly impossible. When describing his fundraising situation, Rants told TheIowaRepublican.com, “If you are looking for loyalty, get a dog.” He contends that Branstad’s entrance into the race hurt him more than any other candidate in the race.

While Rants lacks the necessary funds to wage much of a traditional campaign, Rants gave no indication that he was about to get out of the race. When asked about how much money is in his campaign account, Rants knew the amount to the penny. “It’s enough to keep gas in the car,” Rants said.

Sounds like he will stay in to the end.

Bob Vander Plaats had a little more than $200,000 on hand for his gubernatorial campaign at the end of 2009, according to a campaign press release Kathie Obradovich posted at the Des Moines Register’s blog today. Excerpt:

“By all accounts, we had a great year,” Vander Plaats said.  “The fact is, we received the strongest financial support after Terry Branstad said in September that he was likely to get into the race. The financial backing this campaign has received is a clear indication that people see the GOP primary as a two-man contest and that a solid number of Iowans want a new face to lead the Republican Party forward.”

The campaign reported cash contributions of $595,740.13 and in-kind contributions of $61,999.87 for a total of $657,740.00 in contributions. It reported expenditures totaling $392,630.67 during 12 months in operation. Its cash on hand was $203,109.46 at year’s end.

Vander Plaats said the campaign report shows more than 1,200 individual contributions, indicating a broad and solid supporter base as the primary campaign enters its most active phase.

Raising more than $650,000 is not bad at all, but that burn rate seems high. Going into the final five months of the campaign, Terry Branstad had nearly seven times as much cash on hand as Vander Plaats.

Vander Plaats was by far the most active campaigner in the Republican field during 2009, holding numerous events around the state. Still, I wonder what he spent nearly $400,000 on last year. It’s possible that he has pre-paid some media or consulting expenses, and we’ll see the results from that later. I remember that Congressman Steve King’s campaign seemed to have little cash on hand during 2008, but it turned out that he had paid in advance for lots of television and radio ads which ran during the final two months.

By the same token, if Vander Plaats spent most of his money on things like staff salaries or fundraising, he could find it difficult to compete with Branstad down the stretch. If I were running his campaign, I’d try to figure out a way to become the next darling for national conservatives, like the activists who have propelled Marco Rubio to a likely victory over Florida Governor Charlie Crist in that state’s Senate primary. Right now Vander Plaats isn’t that far ahead of Rod Roberts in terms of cash on hand.

Speaking of Roberts, he’s launching statewide radio ads this week. No word yet on Chris Rants’ fundraising numbers.

UPDATE: In the comments, thisweekiniowapolitics posted more details from the Vander Plaats filing. The bulk of the expenditures were payroll related. If he wants to run any paid media before June, he’ll need to cut back on staffing or raise a lot more money. The conservative netroots helped Scott Brown raise a ton of money in Massachusetts; if they decide to get involved in this race, they can help Vander Plaats.

Terry Branstad is kicking off his “official” candidacy for governor today, launching a tour around the state. His campaign announced fairly strong fundraising numbers last week and just leaked an internal Republican primary poll showing Branstad leading Bob Vander Plaats by 63 percent to 18 percent.

It’s conceivable that Vander Plaats’ campaign could take off in the coming months. Right-winger Marco Rubio is now considered likely to defeat Florida Governor Charlie Crist in that state’s U.S. Senate primary, despite commanding leads Crist had in polls a few months ago. However, I assume Branstad will lock up the Republican nomination with little trouble.

Branstad will undoubtedly be a tough general-election opponent for Governor Chet Culver. The biggest hurdles for a challenger are usually name recognition, fundraising, and getting voters to imagine the challenger doing the job he’s seeking. Branstad is well-known, has done the job before, and has wealthy donors behind him. Frankly, I’d rather not have him in this race.

But my mother taught me not to focus too much on the negative. After the jump I offer some silver linings of a Branstad candidacy.  

State Representative Rod Roberts has about $102,000 on hand for his gubernatorial campaign, Tom Beaumont reported at the Des Moines Register today, citing the campaign’s Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board filing. (His post contains a pdf link to the summary page.)

Roberts raised just over $100,000 last year and loaned his campaign $13,000 while spending only about $22,000. More than half of all the money he raised came from his kick-off fundraiser in Carroll, the town Roberts has represented in the Iowa House for the last decade.

I have been expecting Roberts to drop out of the governor’s race so that he can run for re-election in Iowa House district 51, but his low burn rate indicates that he has enough money to go all the way to the June primary. He won’t be able to match the front-runners’ spending; Terry Branstad has 13 times Roberts’ cash on hand. But he can position himself as a unifying figure in the GOP, which may bear fruit if Branstad and Vander Plaats stumble or drive each other’s negatives way up.

Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns makes the case here for Roberts as a successful dark horse candidate. I don’t see it, but stranger things have happened.

UPDATE: Roberts is going up with statewide radio ads this week. You can listen to them at his campaign website.

Commenting on the Iowa Family Policy Center’s recent endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, Kathie Obradovich wonders whether

Vander Plaats might run as an independent, or third-party candidate if he loses the GOP primary. His spokesman, Eric Woolson, did not pledge that Vander Plaats would support the GOP nominee: “Our focus has been entirely on winning the GOP primary and the general election.”

My hunch is that Vander Plaats won’t embark on a third-party candidacy if he loses the Republican primary. In fact, he will probably need to rule out that option soon or risk losing support from party activists this spring. Everyone knows that Vander Plaats would be helping Governor Chet Culver if he continued to campaign against the Republican nominee.

By the same token, the Iowa Family Policy Center stands to lose too many of their regular donors and supporters if they back an independent candidate for governor. If Terry Branstad wins the Republican primary, the smart play for the IFPC would be to focus on the statehouse races.

Jonathan Narcisse is a far more likely independent candidate for governor this year. Follow me after the jump for more on his political niche.

Yesterday Terry Branstad’s campaign released some information about its fundraising during the last three months of 2009. As I’d feared, they reported big numbers: nearly $1.55 million raised, with $1.36 million cash on hand left at the end of 2009. You can make a lot of contacts in four terms as governor, and Branstad’s campaign had 3,044 individual contributors, representing all of Iowa’s 99 counties. The campaign also noted that 94 percent of the money raised came from Iowans, and 96 percent came from individuals.

Governor Chet Culver’s campaign responded by announcing that it has $2.59 million on hand:

That total is over $1 million more than any incumbent governor has had at a similar point in their reelection cycle. […]

Over the past 12 months, the campaign received contributions from well over 1,000 donors, 85% of which are Iowa residents.  Additionally, more than half the contributions made to the campaign were for $250 or less.

Culver campaign manager Abby Curran told me that the total amount raised during 2009 was $2.145 million. She declined to tell me how much the campaign spent during the year, but it’s not hard to arrive at a ballpark figure. Last January, Culver’s campaign reported having about $1.5 million on hand. Adding $2.145 million to that and subtracting the $2.59 million the campaign has on hand now suggests that the governor’s campaign spent a little more than $1 million during the past year.

I’ve been concerned about the Culver campaign’s burn rate for a while. It appears that as in 2008, the campaign spent roughly half of what it took in during 2009. Presumably a lot of that money went toward running this statewide television ad in October and this one in November. I liked the ads, especially the second one, and I understand why they wanted to spread a positive message when the governor was going through a rough political stretch. But Culver and Jim Nussle raised about $15 million combined during the 2006 campaign, and this year’s race will be more expensive. The Democratic and Republican governors’ associations are likely to spend substantial money here (both organizations have a lot of money in the bank). Even so, Culver needs to raise a lot more money.

Another point of concern is that Branstad has more individual donors. If half of Culver’s donations were for $250 or less, then the overwhelming majority of his money came from donors giving several thousand dollars. Iowa has no campaign contribution limits, so there’s no reason these people couldn’t give again, but Culver has a smaller pool of past donors to tap. In my opinion this reflects the governor’s failure to build strong coalitions and deliver on various issues of importance to Democratic activists who supported Ed Fallon or Mike Blouin in the 2006 primary. The friction between him and organized labor hasn’t helped either.

The good news for Culver is that he can continue to build his war chest while Branstad is forced to spend a lot of money during the Republican primary.

Speaking of which, the other Republican candidates for governor haven’t released their fundraising numbers yet. They must file reports with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board by January 19, so we’ll know more next week. I assume State Representatives Chris Rants and Rod Roberts will have very little cash on hand, and Bob Vander Plaats won’t have nearly as much as Branstad reported. But Vander Plaats should be able to announce a credible number. At this point in the 2006 election cycle he had raised nearly a million dollars. Thanks to the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage, Vander Plaats received much more publicity among social conservatives nationwide last year than he had in 2005.

Any thoughts about the Iowa governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

Todd Dorman’s column on the Iowa Family Policy Center’s endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats included this observation:

Vander Plaats is being touted as the next Mike Huckabee, a religious conservative who won Iowa’s 2008 presidential caucuses.

But Huckabee took just over 40,000 votes on caucus night. It will take more than 500,000 to become governor.

In the 2006 general election, about 1.05 million Iowans cast votes for governor, but the primary electorate is much smaller. Only about 148,000 Iowans voted in the hard-fought Democratic gubernatorial primary of 2006 (pdf file). Approximately 199,000 Iowans voted in the three-way GOP primary of 2002.

The number of registered Republicans in Iowa has declined since then, but a lot of independents and even some Democrats might cross over to vote in this year’s GOP primary for governor. I’m going to assume that with the Republican base as energized as they are, turnout will exceed 200,000 this June. Contested Republican primaries in the second and third Congressional districts should drive up turnout in central and eastern Iowa as well.  

So, how many votes would Vander Plaats or Terry Branstad need to win the primary? That depends in part on whether State Representatives Chris Rants and Rod Roberts can get any traction in the race. Rants says he is in the governor’s race for the duration, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roberts run for his Iowa House seat instead of for governor. We haven’t seen any public polls of the Republican primary since the summer. I am going to assume that even if Rants and Roberts remain on the ballot for governor, lack of money and institutional support will hold their combined vote to at most 10 percent.

It’s worth noting that many people were surprised the under-funded Ed Fallon managed 26 percent in the 2006 Democratic primary, but in that race Fallon appealed to a distinct niche in the party. I don’t see Rants or Roberts exceeding expectations unless they have some standout performances in debates, and/or one of the front-runners stumbles.

I’m going to assume that the winner of the Republican primary will need at least 100,000 votes statewide on June 5. Branstad has an edge because so many Iowa Republicans in every county have voted for him before. Vander Plaats received about 63,000 votes in the 2002 primary, when he finished a close third behind Doug Gross and Steve Sukup. As you can see from this map, he did best in northwest Iowa. Rants can hurt Vander Plaats here because he is also from Sioux City. Then again, Vander Plaats campaigned statewide as the lieutenant governor nominee in 2006 and has been the most active campaigner this cycle.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? How many votes will it take to win the chance to face Governor Chet Culver in the general?

I’ve been assuming for the past few months that there’s no way Bob Vander Plaats can defeat Terry Branstad in this year’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Branstad’s statewide connections from his four terms as governor and his support from major donors should give him an insurmountable edge, especially in the eastern Iowa counties. While Vander Plaats would have a great shot at winning a caucus or a statewide convention, I didn’t see any way he could keep Branstad below 50 percent in the primary, especially with Branstad likely to raise far more money.

I’ve started to rethink my assumptions as conservative Republicans have spoken out against Branstad.

Everyone knew the Iowa Family Policy Center’s political action committee would endorse Vander Plaats at some point, but their statement yesterday went far beyond expressing a preference for Vander Plaats. The IFPC made clear that they will not support Branstad in the general election if he wins the GOP nomination.

Follow me after the jump for more on the IFPC’s endorsement and how Vander Plaats could win the primary.

Governor Chet Culver’s re-election campaign announced yesterday that Abby Curran has been hired as campaign manager. She replaces Andrew Roos, who departed in November.

Curran first worked in Iowa in 2003 and 2004, as a field organizer for Dick Gephardt in the Dubuque area. In 2006, she managed Baron Hill’s successful campaign in Indiana’s Republican-leaning ninth Congressional district. In 2007, she was deputy field director for John Edwards’ Iowa caucus campaign. In 2008, she managed the campaign of Linda Stender, who fell short in New Jersey’s Republican-leaning seventh Congressional district.

Jesse Harris remains deputy manager for the Culver-Judge campaign, and the Des Moines Register confirms another encouraging rumor I’d heard: “Culver retains as his general campaign consultant Teresa Vilmain, a Cedar Falls native and veteran Democratic organizer whose Iowa experience dates back 30 years.” You can’t believe everything you read in Civic Skinny.

Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party launched a new web video yesterday on the coming “showdown” of Terry vs. Terry:

Former Governor Branstad’s record doesn’t square with his campaign rhetoric in many respects. So far he has either glossed over the discrepancies or claimed to have learned from his mistakes. Republican primary voters may accept that explanation, but Branstad’s accountability problem is sure to be an issue this fall if he wins the GOP nomination.

Following up on my review of news from the first half of last year, I’ve posted links to Bleeding Heartland’s coverage of Iowa politics from July through December 2009 after the jump.

Hot topics on this blog during the second half of the year included the governor’s race, the special election in Iowa House district 90, candidates announcing plans to run for the state legislature next year, the growing number of Republicans ready to challenge Representative Leonard Boswell, state budget constraints, and a scandal involving the tax credit for film-making.

When I saw yesterday’s news about State Representative Kent Sorenson supporting Bob Vander Plaats for governor, I didn’t pay much attention at first. Vander Plaats announced Sorenson’s endorsement on Twitter last May, so saying it again hardly seemed newsworthy.

But when I read the Vander Plaats campaign’s press release on the story, and Sorenson’s lengthy open letter to his supporters, I realized that he had upped the ante. Sorenson doesn’t just prefer Vander Plaats in the GOP primary. He is promising, “under no conditions will I vote for Terry Branstad or Chet Culver for governor,” and he wants his supporters to make the same pledge.

I suspect the Vander Plaats campaign will end up walking back those remarks, and Sorenson has just dealt a blow to his own campaign in Iowa Senate district 37. More thoughts on this story are after the jump.  

I expected 2009 to be a relatively quiet year in Iowa politics, but was I ever wrong.

The governor’s race heated up, state revenues melted down, key bills lived and died during the legislative session, and the Iowa Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Varnum v Brien became one of this state’s major events of the decade.

After the jump I’ve posted links to Bleeding Heartland’s coverage of Iowa politics from January through June 2009. Any comments about the year that passed are welcome in this thread.

Although I wrote a lot of posts last year, there were many important stories I didn’t manage to cover. I recommend reading Iowa Independent’s compilation of “Iowa’s most overlooked and under reported stories of 2009,” as well as that blog’s review of “stories that will continue to impact Iowa in 2010.”

Democratic incumbents are facing some tough governor’s races in 2010, but fortunately the Democratic Governors Association will be in a position to help in key states:

The Democratic Governors Association raised $23.1 million in 2009, more than ever before in the organization’s history, and will start the 2010 election cycle with nearly 12 times as much cash on hand as 2006, the last equivalent election cycle, Chairman Gov. Jack Markell announced today. […]

The DGA’s 2009 fundraising marks the second year in a row and the first off-year in which the DGA raised more than $20 million. Fourth quarter fundraising was by far the strongest, with more than $7 million in contributions received during the period. December contributions alone totaled nearly $4 million.

The record-breaking fundraising means that the DGA begins 2010, the most critical gubernatorial cycle in a generation, with $17.5 million on hand. In the equivalent election cycle in 2006, the DGA carried over $1.5 million and spent less than $14 million on races that year.

The Republican Governors Association has historically outraised the DGA by wide margins. In spite of the fundraising gap, since 2007, the DGA has won twice as many targeted governors races as the RGA. The DGA’s strong cash-on-hand position means that it will be able to spend at a competitive level with the RGA in this critical cycle.

Losing the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia was painful enough; I am glad to know that those campaigns didn’t deplete the DGA’s cash reserves.

Here in Iowa, Governor Chet Culver may need the DGA’s help to keep pace with Republican expenditures. Culver held lots of fundraisers during the fall, but he also spent money running a couple of television commercials statewide. Terry Branstad probably pulled in big numbers during the fourth quarter, although he will have to spend a lot of cash before the Republican primary in June. At least one other Republican candidate, Bob Vander Plaats, has enough resources to run a strong primary campaign.

An alert Bleeding Heartland reader got a recorded phone call around dinnertime today (Monday), featuring former Governor Terry Branstad.

Apparently there were a couple of questions about how Governor Chet Culver is doing and his handling of spending and the budget. Branstad’s recorded voice touted his own record on economic policy.

The call also asked if the listener would support a constitutional ammendment limiting marriage to between one man and one woman, and if the listener would vote for Branstad in the upcoming Republican primary.

According to my e-mail tipster, the call said it was paid for by the Branstad for Governor comittee, and gave a phone number as well as the address for Branstad’s campaign website.

This particular household has two registered Democrats and no registered Republicans, and the homeowner has had the same phone number for more than 15 years. Either the calling firm was using a bad list, or Branstad’s campaign is reaching out to find Democrats who aren’t happy with Culver.

Have any other Bleeding Heartland readers received this call? If so, please post a comment with details, or send me an e-mail at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

Remember, it’s helpful not to hang up on political robocalls or surveys. Stay on the line and take notes, if possible, about the content of the call, who paid for the message, and so on.

UPDATE: Another reader tells me he got the call but hung up on it, and there are two registered Democrats in his household as well.

SECOND UPDATE: If Branstad’s campaign is trying to identify Democrats willing to cross over to vote for him in the Republican primary, it makes me wonder what their internal polling says about Branstad’s prospects against Bob Vander Plaats.

THIRD UPDATE: State Representative Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids got the call too.

I posted my haiku diary at a few other places and liked so many of the entries.

Favorites are after the jump.

Krusty Konservative launched a haiku contest today, and I figured, why should Republicans have all the fun?

A haiku consists of “three unrhymed lines of five, seven, and five syllables.”

I look forward to reading your entries. Here’s my first shot:

Ignoring record

the MasterCard governor

throws stones from glass house.

I’ll update this post later if inspiration strikes.

UPDATE: Wow, things got nasty over in Krusty’s thread. Meanwhile, I thought of another:

For lack of ideas

or a fresh campaign message,

“Nancy Pelosi.”

In the least surprising news of the month, State Senator Jerry Behn has dropped out of the Republican gubernatorial primary and endorsed Terry Branstad. Behn never looked like a serious contender, and my only question is what took him so long? Credit for the scoop on this story should go to Christian Ucles, who noticed ten days ago that Behn’s campaign website had been taken down.

Behn’s exit leaves four Republican candidates for governor. Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats have the funding and large base of support to go the distance in the primary. State Representatives Chris Rants and Rod Roberts will be cash-poor and without an obvious base. It seems logical that one or both would drop out of the governor’s race in time to run for the Iowa House again. The filing deadline is in March.

Last week Rants told Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal that he is in the gubernatorial campaign to stay and will not run for House district 54 in Sioux City again. He can’t have much money in his campaign account, but if he mainly needs to drive himself around the state and doesn’t plan to run ads, he won’t need much money.

I’ve haven’t heard Roberts rule out running for Iowa House district 51 again, and that district in the Carroll area might be more ripe for a Democratic takeover if Roberts left it open. When the campaigns release their fundraising numbers in January we’ll get a better sense of how broke Rants and Roberts are. My best guess is that Roberts will be the next to fold.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: A few days ago Roberts told the Marshalltown Times-Republican, “I have discovered there is a place for me in this field. I have no intentions of backing out.”

For a guy who claims to be proud of his record, former governor Terry Branstad sure has a funny way of showing it.

On one issue after another, Branstad takes credit for things he didn’t do and evades responsibility for things he did. So, the governor who kept two sets of books boasts about enacting budget reforms that that other people pushed in response to his fiscal mismanagement.

The governor who used state bonding more than once says that politicians who create debt should be voted out of office.

Pressed on his record of expanding gambling in Iowa, Branstad has suggested he had little choice in the matter: “What was I supposed to do? Over 70% of the people wanted it even though I was personally opposed to it.”

Now Branstad is playing the same game on the Road Use Tax Fund and the idea of eliminating federal deductibility from Iowa’s tax system.

David Barton, a self-styled constitutional expert who founded the socially conservative WallBuilders organization, has endorsed Bob Vander Plaats for governor:

“Bob Vander Plaats epitomizes the leadership our Founding Fathers envisioned when they stood up for our individual liberties,” Barton said in a prepared statement. “He knows that it’s the hard work and unfettered creative spirit of individuals made this country and states like Iowa great. He knows that more bureaucracies, more government employees, higher taxes and increased government spending will crush Iowa. And, he’ll articulate that message in winning fashion.”

Here’s some background on Barton’s vision for America, chock full of Biblical interpretations supporting right-wing public policies. Barton spoke to the Iowa Christian Alliance this fall (click that link to watch videos). His organization hosts a large annual “ProFamily Legislators Conference.”

Barton’s endorsement may help Vander Plaats raise money from around the country as well as recruit volunteers in Iowa. Vander Plaats will particularly need financial support from out of state in order to compete with Terry Branstad, who built relationships with many major donors and local activists during his four terms as governor.

I’ll be curious to see whether conservative activists looking to “take back the Republican Party” through primaries will focus on Iowa’s gubernatorial race in the winter and spring. Vander Plaats already has the backing of former presidential candidate and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee as well as pop culture icon Chuck Norris. Vander Plaats also was featured on the cover of Focus on the Family’s national magazine in November.

The editors of the conservative Fort Dodge Messenger are ecstatic about Terry Branstad’s gubernatorial campaign, and they got a little carried away in this Sunday editorial:

Iowa must return to a pay-as-you-go approach to budgeting. Government spending should be carefully aligned with anticipated revenues. As governor, Branstad rigorously adhered to that philosophy. He pledged it will once again become central to state budgeting if he is elected.

Who are they kidding?

Branstad’s sleight of hand on the budget was so notorious that as a three-term incumbent, he almost lost the 1994 GOP primary to Fred Grandy. That campaign centered on “the Mastercard governor” and his record of fiscal mismanagement, including keeping two sets of books to hide deficits.

As State Representative Chris Rants has noted, Branstad likes to take credit for budget reforms that were not his idea and were intended to prevent future governors from repeating his mistakes.

That’s to be expected from a politician, but I expect more reality-based commentary from newspaper editors.

By the way, did you notice how the Messenger editors suggested that Iowa is no longer doing “pay as you go” budgeting? That Republican talking point is supposed to make people believe that Democrats have borrowed money to fund budget line items. In fact, the I-JOBS state bonding program was for capital investment projects. Investors understood that distinction. That’s why the bonds were sold at lower interest rates, and the Bond Buyer daily rated I-JOBS one of the country’s top 10 best financing deals for 2009.

Even after factoring in the I-JOBS program, Iowa’s state debt per capita is low by national standards.

This thread is for anything that’s on your mind this weekend.

After the jump I’ve posted links about Christian Fong, Sarah Palin, House district 1 and Kim Lehman to get things rolling.

Tom Beaumont broke the story on the Des Moines Register blog:

Gov. Chet Culver’s campaign manager said today he has resigned, citing personal reasons for leaving the Democrat’s re-election bid after only three months.

Andrew Roos, who was hired in September to manage Culver’s re-election campaign, said he had decided to step down before Thanksgiving and that Culver did not ask him to quit. According to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, Culver’s job approval has fallen steadily throughout the year and last month was behind potential Republican challengers in hypothetical match-ups.

Deputy campaign manager Jesse Harris, who was hired along with Roos, will serve as interim manager until a permanent successor is hired, Roos said.

“We’re leaving on totally friendly terms,” Roos told The Des Moines Register. “I want to do whatever I can for the governor.”

Roos declined to elaborate on the reasons for the decision. The 34-year-old native of South Bend, Ind., is single and came to Culver’s campaign after having managed Democrat Jack Markell’s winning campaign for Delaware governor last year.

I hadn’t heard any rumors that this was coming and have no idea what the backstory is. Culver’s campaign aired two television commercials this fall, and I thought the second one was quite good. The latest Iowa poll by the Des Moines register was brutal, but you can’t pin that on the campaign manager.

In related news, Taniel of the Campaign Diaries blog published new governor’s race ratings today. Very few incumbents are secure:

In 2010, 37 states will hold Governor’s races, and at the moment the incumbent party can be said to be safe in only five of them! That is not due to any attempt on my part to pile on races in the “likely retention” category: A full 22 states are here classified in the most competitive categories: 13 are “leans” and 9 are “toss-ups.”

Iowa is rated “lean-takeover.” Of the 10 governor’s seats Campaign Diaries considers most likely to change parties next year, five are currently occupied by Democrats and five by Republicans. Most incumbents have seen their ratings fall because of budget problems and high unemployment rates associated with the current recession.  

The only Republican gubernatorial candidate from eastern Iowa suspended his campaign today. Iowa Politics has the full press release. Here’s the statement from Christian Fong’s campaign website:

“The message was right, and the vision remains unclouded. Commitment to the Iowa Dream means that while practical financial hurdles may prevent a run for Governor in 2010, I will continue to campaign for the Iowa’s future.”

– Christian Fong

Ed Failor, Jr. of Iowans for Tax Relief reportedly promised to help Fong raise enough money for a serious campaign, and Fong raised $100,000 in three weeks after entering the gubernatorial race this summer. However, it sounds like Terry Branstad’s return to politics dried up the money Fong was counting on.

Branstad was quick to release a statement today:

“I want to thank Christian for bringing his youth, energy and unique perspective to the Iowa governor’s race. Christian Fong epitomizes the Iowa dream, and I look forward to working with him on the critical need for Republicans to be a relevant voice for young people. We must provide a thriving business climate in Iowa that entices young professionals to remain in Iowa and raise their families here. Christian Fong is an exciting, energetic Republican and we’re fortunate to have him in our party.”

Does anyone think Fong might become the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor next year? Lots of people in Polk County expect Branstad to choose Doug Reichardt for a running mate.

I am disappointed that we won’t have a chance to find out whether an Iowa Republican could get serious traction using Barack Obama’s playbook.

So many campaign stories the past few days, so little time.

After the jump you’ll find lots of links about various campaigns for U.S. Senate, House, governor and state treasurer.

State Representative Chris Rants will “debate” former Des Moines School Board member Jonathan Narcisse on various issues during the first half of December. The Iowa Republican blog has the preliminary schedule for the debates in Bettendorf, Ankeny, Council Bluffs, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo, as well as footage from yesterday’s joint press conference by Rants and Narcisse.

Scheduling the “debates” is a clever move by Rants, who is running the best gubernatorial campaign in the GOP field so far. These events will not be good news for Governor Chet Culver.

Developing a line of attack he has used before, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats asserted yesterday that Terry Branstad’s past support for Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska makes Branstad partly responsible for any health care reform bill Congress passes this year.  

From the Vander Plaats campaign press release of November 23:

“Ben Nelson gave Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid the vote he needed to get the 60 votes to steamroll Republican opposition. It means the Democrats will be able to proceed with legislation that will effectively destroy our private health care system while saddling businesses and working families with hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes and limiting our access to care,” said Vander Plaats, who is seeking the 2010 Iowa Republican gubernatorial nomination. “Whatever happens from here on out, Terry Branstad is going to have to accept some responsibility because he was a very active supporter of Ben Nelson in his first campaign for the Senate.”

A few thoughts on this line of attack are after the jump.