It’s been a banner week for State Representative Tyler Olson. Not only did the top two Iowa Senate Democrats both rule out running for governor, Olson gained public support from State Senator Bob Dvorsky. He posted on Facebook last night, “I’m not just endorsing Tyler, but the idea of creating a new vision for Iowa that will lead our state into the next 30 years of innovation and prosperity.” Dvorsky’s wife, Sue Dvorsky, preceded Olson as Iowa Democratic Party chair and “enthusiastically” endorsed his candidacy a few weeks ago. Olson also has the backing of State Senator Janet Petersen, with whom he served in the Iowa House, and State Senator Rob Hogg, whom he has known for the last decade, as well as several Iowa House Democrats.

The endorsements for Olson are a bit awkward for State Senator Jack Hatch, who hasn’t secured the public support of any fellow legislators as he explores a gubernatorial campaign.

I understand jumping on board with a candidate you believe in, but at the same time, I feel that a Democratic establishment stampede to any candidate (as happened with Brad Anderson’s secretary of state campaign) is premature when the field isn’t even set. In addition to Olson and Hatch, former State Representative Bob Krause is running for governor, and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald hasn’t ruled out the race. The Iowa Democratic Party would benefit from at least one spirited statewide primary contest next spring, especially since the U.S. Senate race is just a coronation on our side.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. After the jump I’ve posted Olson’s first campaign video, a biographical piece released online last week.  

Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum has decided against running for governor in 2014, she confirmed by telephone yesterday. Although she has been “overwhelmed by encouragement from people” across Iowa, she sad her most important priority is her daughter Sarah. Jochum is the primary caregiver for Sarah, an adult with developmental disabilities, and she decided it would be difficult to balance her daughter’s needs with an “18/7” statewide campaign for governor. Jochum added that she greatly enjoys being president of the Iowa Senate, a position to which she was elected last November.

Similar considerations prompted Jochum to opt out of the first Congressional district race earlier this year. Raising money for a Congressional bid and campaigning across 20 counties would have been almost as time-consuming as running for governor. Jochum is not up for re-election in the Iowa Senate until 2016, and her Dubuque-based district 50 is safe as long as she desires to serve.

Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign announced today that it has hired field directors in each of Iowa’s four Congressional districts. I enclose below the press release with background on Matt Leopold, Nic Pottebaum, Kaylee Carnahan, and Jacob Johnson. All four field directors have campaign experience, and all but Carnahan have Iowa campaign experience.

Reading the press release, I was struck by the way the governor’s campaign staff continue to talk about the “Branstad-Reynolds committee” in official communications as well as in less formal settings. The campaign’s registered name is Governor Branstad Committee. Lately Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds has accompanied Branstad to many public events. Traditionally, Iowa’s lieutenant governors have been sent out to handle events the governor could not attend, so that the administration could cover more ground. The “Branstad-Reynolds” team branding effort is one reason some Iowa Democrats suspect that the governor may announce shortly before next year’s filing deadline that he is not running for re-election–clearing a path for Reynolds to step in as the Republican establishment candidate for governor. I expect Branstad to seek a sixth term, barring a serious health problem.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal announced tonight that he will not run for governor in 2014. Gubernatorial candidate Bob Krause tweeted that Gronstal told the audience at the Pottawattamie County annual Democratic fundraiser that his Senate seat is needed to maintain the Democrats’ 26-24 Senate majority. IA-03 Congressional candidate Gabriel De La Cerda also reported Gronstal’s announcement. Gronstal has represented the Council Bluffs area in the Iowa Senate for many years and was just re-elected to another four-year term in 2012. Since he’s not up for re-election in 2014, he could have run for governor without giving up his seat. However, if he became governor a special election would be called in Senate district 8. Republicans hold both of the Iowa House seats in that district.

I am not surprised by Gronstal’s decision. I was more surprised when he said he was seriously considering the race. While I agree he could be a good governor, and other Democrats could be excellent Senate majority leaders, I would be concerned about finding another Democrat who could hol

UPDATE: Gronstal told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he made the decision in the last ten days, adding, “I think Terry Branstad is imminently [eminently] beatable. This is not the same Terry Branstad that was governor back in the ’80s who understood the spirit of compromise, so I think we have a much more ideological governor. I am confident we (Democrats) can find a candidate who will be able to beat him.”

SECOND UPDATE: Gronstal’s official statement is after the jump.

I expect Governor Terry Branstad to seek a sixth term next year, but lately I’ve been wondering what could happen if he announces at the last minute that he’s not running. Could Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds step in right before the filing deadline and use the funds raised by Branstad-Reynolds to finance her own gubernatorial campaign?

The short answer is “probably not.” The longer answer is after the jump.

Governor Terry Branstad got good news and bad news from the latest Quinnipiac statewide poll, released today. The survey of 1,256 registered Iowa voters between July 15 and 17 found that Branstad is in positive territory with Iowans: 51 percent approve of his work as governor, while just 33 percent disapprove. Moreover, 50 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of Branstad, while 37 percent view him unfavorably. Another good sign for the incumbent: 67 percent were either very or somewhat satisfied with “the way things are going in Iowa today”; just 31 percent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied.

On the downside, just 43 percent of respondents said Branstad deserves to be re-elected; 46 percent said he does not. About 54 percent said the governor “has been in office long enough,” while 37 percent said he should seek another term.

No one’s going to panic at Terrace Hill over this poll. Thinking abstractly that Branstad should retire is different from choosing to vote for someone else. Clearly many people in that “long enough” group like Branstad and think he’s doing a decent job. I doubt those people would vote for a challenger unless they felt that Branstad was physically unable to serve for another four years.

The potential Democratic candidates for governor are mostly unknown to Iowa voters. About 77 percent of Quinnipiac’s respondents haven’t heard enough about Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal to form an opinion, 85 percent said the same about State Senator Jack Hatch, and 92 percent said the same about State Representative Tyler Olson.

Full results from the Quinnipiac poll including questionnaire and cross-tabs can be viewed here (pdf). Olson’s campaign was quick to send out an e-mail blast touting the poll as proof that Iowans agree it’s “time for a new start in the Governor’s office.” I posted that message after the jump. I haven’t seen any comment from the Branstad campaign about the new poll, but I also enclosed below a statement released today touting the governor’s job creation efforts.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out on the Iowa governor and U.S. Senate races. Click here for Tom Jensen’s summary and here (pdf) for full results with questionnaire and cross-tabs. PPP surveyed 668 registered Iowa voters between July 5 and 7, producing a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Highlights: both President Barack Obama (46/50) and Governor Terry Branstad (45/46) are slightly underwater on approval ratings. However, Branstad has double-digit leads over Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, and State Representative Tyler Olson. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds is much less known than Branstad and is tied with or barely ahead of the Democratic candidates in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups.

In the Senate race, Democratic Representative Bruce Braley has higher name recognition than any of the Republicans and is more liked than disliked by Iowans who have an opinion about him (34 favorable/24 unfavorable). In head to head match-ups, he leads Matt Whitaker by 9 points, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs by 12 points, and David Young by 13 points.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I wouldn’t read too much into horse race polling 16 months before the election, especially since none of the Senate candidates are particularly well-known, nor are the Democrats running for governor. Braley polls about the same against any of the Republicans now, but as the campaign progresses I believe it will become apparent that certain GOP candidates have more upside than Clovis, for example.  

State Representative Tyler Olson kicked off his campaign for governor in Cedar Rapids this morning. His central theme is no surprise: Iowa needs “fresh leadership” and specifically a leader who appreciates diversity and “understands the speed at which the world is changing.” Olson is 37 years old, while Governor Terry Branstad and the two other Democrats running for governor are all in their 60s.

Olson is on the web here, as well as on Facebook and twitter. After the jump I’ve posted his campaign announcement and some clips from today’s news coverage.

UPDATE: State Senator Rob Hogg spoke at today’s event in Cedar Rapids and confirmed via e-mail that he has endorsed Olson for governor. When Hogg was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2006, Olson won the Iowa House district Hogg had previously represented. Sue Dvorsky, Olson’s predecessor as Iowa Democratic Party chair, confirmed that she is also “enthusiastically” supporting his gubernatorial campaign.

SECOND UPDATE: State Senator Janet Petersen of Des Moines also endorsed Olson today.

THIRD UPDATE: State Representative Sharon Steckman of Mason City confirmed that she is also endorsing Olson for governor. I’ve added more news clips below.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign announced four hires today in preparation for next year’s election. I’ve posted the campaign press release after the jump. Phil Valenziano, who will serve as political director, joined the Branstad campaign full-time two months ago to focus on grassroots organizing and public events. Jake Ketzner and Jimmy Centers will serve as campaign manager and communications director, respectively. Both have worked in the governor’s office for some time but left for a while to help run Representative Steve King’s 2012 re-election campaign. Vonna Hall will be the Branstad campaign’s office manager after doing the same job for the Republican Party of Iowa since 2010. So far, Branstad’s campaign has $2 million cash on hand. When the fundraising reports are available online, Bleeding Heartland will take a closer look at the donors.

Meanwhile, State Representative Tyler Olson has scheduled public events for July 9 in Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Mason City. Of those cities, only Cedar Rapids is in the first Congressional district, making it a near-certainty that Olson will announce his campaign for governor tomorrow. The four-term Iowa House Democrat is roughly the same age Branstad was when he first ran for governor in 1982. Two other Democrats have previously announced plans to run for governor: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. My Facebook and Twitter feeds are replete with jokes about Branstad racing “full speed ahead” on his campaign–a reference to the speeding incident that prompted a 25-year veteran of the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation to file a formal complaint. There is no excuse for state troopers driving the governor at 20-25 mph over the speed limit. He’s not above the law and shouldn’t endanger people’s lives to get back on what Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds calls an “ambitious schedule.” It’s not credible to suggest that Branstad has no input on the driving or didn’t realize his SUV he was riding in was speeding.

The Iowa Democratic Party launched an anti-Branstad “Iowa Problem Causer” website today. Republicans (not clear whether in Iowa or on the National Republican Senatorial Committee) have registered a similarly named Iowa Problem Causer site to shine an unflattering spotlight on Representative Bruce Braley. The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate is presenting himself as an “Iowa Problem Solver.”

UPDATE: Senate President Pam Jochum told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that she is not likely to run for governor next year, “but I haven’t made up mind for sure.”

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that the federal Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional. The ruling means that legally married gay and lesbian couples in Iowa and elsewhere will be entitled to equal treatment under federal law. More than 200 Congressional Democrats, including Senator Tom Harkin and Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, signed an amicus curiae brief urging justices to strike down the key provision of the DOMA, adopted in 1996 with overwhelming bipartisan support.  

In a separate case, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that backers of California’s Proposition 8 did not have standing to appeal a lower-court ruling striking down that ballot initiative. The decision means that LGBT couples will be allowed to marry in California. It does not affect other states’ statutory or constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. Braley and Loebsack were among scores of Congressional Democrats who recently posed for the “NoH8” campaign supporting marriage equality and opposing Prop 8.

Excerpts from the DOMA decision and Iowa reaction to today’s rulings are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. At this writing, most of the Congressional delegation has not publicly commented on the Supreme Court decisions.

I also enclose below Democratic State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad’s reaction to yesterday’s disgraceful 5-4 Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.

Governor Terry Branstad signed into law today a bill setting Iowa’s health and human services budget for the next fiscal year and establishing a new “Iowa Health and Wellness Plan” for low-income Iowans not currently covered by Medicaid. The full text of Senate File 446 is available here. Division XXXIII contains the language on the Iowa alternative to expanding Medicaid, a compromise struck in the closing days of the legislative session last month.

After the jump I’ve posted some links and comments on today’s news. As far as I can tell, Branstad has not yet explained why he is happy to accept federal funding for the Iowa Health and Wellness Plan, likely to be more expensive than expanding Medicaid would have been. Earlier this year, he made a huge fuss about how we can’t afford such a program because of the federal deficit, and how we can’t trust the feds to live up to their funding promises.

Nothing says “not serious about giving Iowa kids a world-class education” than putting the needs of the tourism industry ahead of what’s best for student learning. But Governor Terry Branstad sounds ready to do just that.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Iowa Republicans will have at least two women on the statewide ballot in 2014: Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds and State Auditor Mary Mosiman, who kicked off her election campaign on Thursday in Des Moines. Excerpts from Kevin Hall’s write-up of the event are after the jump.

State Senator Joni Ernst could also become a statewide nominee if she joins the U.S. Senate race, as expected. I think she has strong potential in a GOP primary against three or four men. At this writing, no Democratic woman has announced plans to run for any statewide office in Iowa, but several have either launched or are considering Congressional campaigns.

This week Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer replaced Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen on the Legislative Leaders Advisory Board of Newt Gingrich’s organization GOPAC. Upmeyer was an early endorser of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign. Paulsen endorsed Gingrich shortly before the 2012 Iowa caucuses. If Paulsen runs for Congress in the open first district, Upmeyer will probably also seek to replace him as Iowa House speaker. She would be the first woman to reach that position in our state, although she’s not a shoo-in for the job. (For what it’s worth, I doubt Paulsen would win an IA-01 Republican primary.)

Last month Upmeyer and Reynolds joined the national advisory board of the Republican State Leadership Committee’s project to recruit more women candidates, called Right Women, Right Now. Upmeyer has served on the national board of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) for several years.

Speaking of women elected officials, Eric Ostermeier wrote an interesting piece for the Smart Politics blog on how the 78 women in the U.S. House identify themselves. Three Republicans go by “Congressman” instead of “Congresswoman” or “Representative.”

Time for a new thread to discuss possible candidates for governor next year. I think we can all agree that Governor Terry Branstad will seek a sixth term, barring some unforeseen health problem.

Many Democrats expect State Representative Tyler Olson to announce his gubernatorial campaign soon now that he has stepped down as Iowa Democratic Party state chair. His resignation letter previewed the obvious case for his candidacy: time for a new generation to step up and lead. Olson is roughly the same age Branstad was when he ran for governor the first time in 1982.

Other Democrats who are either formally exploring or considering the governor’s race are closer to Branstad’s current age: former State Representative Bob Krause, State Senator Jack Hatch, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald. After the jump I’ve posted Fitzgerald’s recent comments about a possible run for governor and a letter to the editor from Krause, who objects to being ignored by the Des Moines Register.  

State Senator Rob Hogg confirmed via e-mail this week that he will not run for governor in 2014 (or for Congress, U.S. Senate, or Iowa Secretary of State, he added). Hogg is up for re-election next year in Iowa Senate district 33, covering part of Cedar Rapids. He has been touring Iowa over the past month to promote his new book, America’s Climate Century: What Climate Change Means for America in the 21st Century and What Americans Can Do about It. I haven’t finished my copy yet, but it is readable and surprisingly optimistic in its call to action.  

Yesterday Governor Terry Branstad traveled to Hiawatha, the home base of Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, to sign a wide-ranging bill on property taxes, income taxes, and the earned income tax credit. Senate File 295 passed both chambers of the Iowa legislature with bipartisan support. Every Republican voted for the bill, as did all but six Senate Democrats and thirteen House Democrats, named here. You can read the full text of Senate File 295 here. Bleeding Heartland covered the key points in the deal here.

The property tax law is one of the most important outcomes of this year’s legislative session. It will be a major theme in next year’s campaigns for governor and the state legislature. After the jump I offer five perspectives on this law: three from supporters of the deal and two with a gloomier view of its likely impact.

State Representative Tyler Olson is stepping down as Iowa Democratic Party chair. Scott Brennan, an attorney who served as party chair during the 2007/2008 cycle, will step in. Click here for background on Brennan. I’ve posted the IDP’s press release after the jump.

Many Democrats expect Olson to announce a candidacy for governor soon, although he hasn’t ruled out running for the open first Congressional district seat. Olson said recently that he would need to resign as party chair if he decided to run for anything other than the Iowa House in 2014. In retrospect, IDP State Central Committee members should have considered whether it was wise to elect a new party chair in January who had not ruled out running for governor. But for reasons I don’t understand, the Iowa Democratic Party leadership is only comfortable with Soviet-style elections, rubber-stamping the choice of the candidate who will be at the top of the ticket. One of these years, central committee members should allow a more open discussion when it’s time to elect a party leader. Meaning no offense toward Brennan, who is capable by all accounts, I believe Democrats could benefit from allowing multiple candidates to present plans for growing the party organization, improving communication, GOTV, and so on.

Assuming he runs for higher office, Olson will leave a safe Democratic Iowa House seat open in 2014. House district 65, covering a large area in Cedar Rapids east of I-380, contains 9,535 registered Democrats, 4,909 Republicans, and 7,296 no-party voters as of June 2013.

UPDATE: Speaking to Radio Iowa, Olson said he is unlikely to run for the Iowa House in 2014. He will decide on a Congressional or gubernatorial campaign in the next few weeks.

The latest statewide poll by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a strong position if he seeks re-election next year. Among 809 Iowa adults surveyed between June 2 and 5, 58 percent approved of Branstad’s performance as governor, while only 32 percent disapproved and 10 percent were not sure. Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register contains more details on the poll, which also found that 56 percent of respondents think things in Iowa are headed in the right direction, and 54 percent view Branstad favorably. Likely Democratic candidate Jack Hatch had very low name recognition in the poll, and in a head to head contest, respondents favored Branstad over Hatch by 55 percent to 27 percent.

Shrinking media budgets have reduced the frequency of public polling. I wish we knew whether the governor’s approval rating has been at this level for some time, or whether Branstad got a bump out of progress made at the end of the legislative session (Last month Quinnipiac conducted its first statewide poll in Iowa and found Branstad’s approve/disapprove numbers at 49/31.)

Either way, a governor with a good approval rating and a healthy campaign bank account is a strong favorite to win a sixth term if he wants one. Iowans failed to re-elect a governor only once during the last half-century, in the aftermath of the worst recession since World War II. Share any comments about the governor’s race in this thread.

Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson just tweeted a few minutes ago that according to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack’s spokesman Matt Paul, Vilsack “considered it” but won’t run for governor of Iowa next year. No one will be surprised by this news. It’s good for Vilsack to make it official as other Democrats consider challenging Governor Terry Branstad: Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, Senate President Pam Jochum, State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald, State Representative Tyler Olson, and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

One – Mike understands how government can work and knows how to make it work.

Two – He works with and talks to everyone, not just a small group of his cronies.

Three – He has a real world understanding of people’s lives and thinks about the consequences of bills and laws and the impact on ordinary people.

Four – Mike has tremendous experience fighting tough political fights and has the strategic mind to develop a plan and the grit to follwo throuhg and make it work.  No on-the-job training needed here!

Five – He listens.  My own experience is that Mike is always available to listen.  He also almost never agrees with everything I ask for, but he listens and speaks honestly with me.

Two Democrats are already exploring running for governor next year: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.

After the jump I’ve posted some recent signals surrounding other possible Democratic challengers to Terry Branstad.  

Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie may seek the Democratic nomination for governor, Graham Gillette reported at Iowa Watchdog today.

Cownie has courted both Republicans and Democrats in recent weeks and appears ready to jump into the fray. Cownie has called [Governor Terry] Branstad vulnerable and [State Senator Jack] Hatch unelectable, giving him a shot at taking over Terrace Hill.

Cownie said he believes his record will attract Iowa voters. Hatch and Branstad are seen as state political insiders. Cownie sees himself as the person with executive experience capable of bringing something new to the governor’s office, he said.

Cownie and Hatch could easily split the Polk County Democratic vote, leaving the door open for a candidate from another part of the state. Des Moines is Iowa’s most populous city, but it’s not nearly large enough to dominate a statewide primary. Both Hatch and Cownie are strong on many progressive issues. Cownie was first elected mayor in 2004 after serving two years on the Des Moines City Council.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Then again, maybe he won’t. Cownie told the Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs Friday afternoon, “the rumors of my running for governor at this moment are greatly exaggerated.”

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal will “make a decision before the end of the summer” about running for governor.

State Senator Jack Hatch announced on twitter and Facebook this evening that he will “take the next step on the road to Terrace Hill in 2014” tomorrow. It’s no surprise, since he had previously signaled his intention to challenge Governor Terry Branstad.

I will update this post tomorrow with details from Hatch’s announcement. His campaign website is here. Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added the official bio from Hatch’s website after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: At a press conference on May 29 (audio at Radio Iowa), Hatch said he is exploring a run for governor and will tour Iowa for three months before deciding whether to pursue the campaign by the end of the summer. He hopes to raise $1 million by the end of this year. Hatch indicated that he will not run for governor if either Tom Vilsack or Chet Culver decide to seek the office again.

A new statewide poll by Quinnipiac University shows Governor Terry Branstad’s approval rating comfortably in positive territory, but Iowans split down the middle on whether he should be re-elected.

When news broke last week of a tax compromise skewed toward business, I wondered why Senate Democrats would agree to pass that bill without progress toward Medicaid expansion, one of their top priorities. Governor Terry Branstad was saying legislators should adjourn after approving a budget, education reform and the tax deal, returning later this year for a special session on health insurance coverage for low-income Iowans. In my opinion, Democrats would be insane to give Republicans what they want on taxes now, hoping for Medicaid expansion later.

Today several signs point toward a possible deal on Medicaid coverage before the end of the legislative session.

It’s time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he’s keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.  

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon “is nearly ready to announce” her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff’s attorney Dave O’Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O’Brien’s background is similar to Bruce Braley’s before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn’t ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he’s thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is “90 percent” likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It’s also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn’t dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.  

Does anyone still doubt that Governor Terry Branstad plans to run for a sixth term next year? Those not convinced should read Mike Wiser’s report on the full-time staffer just hired by Branstad’s re-election campaign.

Meanwhile, Democratic State Senator Jack Hatch dropped a couple of hints lately about a possible run for governor.

Last week Governor Terry Branstad finally introduced legislation to enact his Healthy Iowa Plan instead of the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 federal health insurance reform law. Strangely, neither the governor’s office nor the Iowa House Republican caucus held a news conference or even posted a press release about House Study Bill 232. The bill arrived at the statehouse on Thursday, April 4, after many legislators had left for the weekend.

So far House and Senate Republicans appear united behind Branstad’s approach, while the governor’s office strives to counter the obvious case against his plan (costs more, covers less). I’ve posted arguments for both sides and other news links after the jump.

Bob Krause, a veterans advocate and former state representative, confirmed by e-mail today that he has filed papers creating a committee to explore a run for Iowa governor in 2014. He plans a formal announcement in the coming weeks.

Krause was the first declared Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate the last time Senator Chuck Grassley was on the ballot. He finished a distant second to Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 primary, receiving just under 13 percent of the vote. Earlier this year, Krause ruled out running for Senator Tom Harkin’s seat but said he was considering a campaign for governor or for Congress next year.

Krause knows Governor Terry Branstad well, because for six years during the 1970s, the two men represented neighboring Iowa House districts (two halves of the same Iowa Senate district).

Also today, Krause called for the resignation of Iowa Veterans Affairs Commission member Dan Gannon, a Branstad appointee who represents the Vietnam Veterans of America on that commission. I’ve posted a press release from Krause after the jump, which explains the background. In an e-mail to Veterans Affairs Commission members and staff, Gannon said that he doesn’t trust Krause or the 501(c)3 charity Krause leads, the Veterans National Recovery Center. That organization advocates for services to assist veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Iowa Democrats hoping that U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack would come home to challenge Governor Terry Branstad next year will be disappointed by the latest news out of Washington.

Five years ago this week, I was hospitalized with an infection that might have become life-threatening or permanently debilitating had I not had health insurance coverage, which allowed me to receive a relatively early diagnosis. Every day in this country, uninsured people hunker down, hoping their health problem will go away without an expensive doctor’s visit. That’s one of many reasons studies have shown that expanding Medicaid saves lives.

Governor Terry Branstad sounds determined not to expand Medicaid, but none of his arguments can withstand scrutiny.

UPDATE: Branstad confirmed on February 23 that he will not agree to expand Medicaid. Added details and other related news below.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack may be thinking about running for Iowa governor again in 2014, according to one of his longtime friends.

UPDATE: Vilsack stopped by the Iowa capitol on February 19 to meet with statehouse Democrats. According to State Representative Marti Anderson, he came to “talk about the looming sequester in DC. and other Food, Farm, and Jobs issues from USDA.”

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

The Des Moines Register continues to release bits and pieces from the latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. After the jump I’ve posted some of the more important findings, other than the IA-Sen numbers, which I discussed in this post. Like the Iowa .Gif-t Shop blog, I found it bizarre that the Register asked respondents whether they’d be “thrilled,” “mildly happy,” or “don’t really care” about the prospect of certain national retailers opening an Iowa store.

You have to hand it to the Republican strategists behind a new vehicle that may collect tens of thousands of names and addresses for future use by Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign.  

Bob Krause announced today that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2014 “as long as Bruce Braley is in the race,” but may consider running for governor or for Congress next year. Krause was the first declared challenger to Senator Chuck Grassley in 2009. He finished a distant second to Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 Democratic primary.

Krause now lives in the Des Moines area, so a Congressional bid would presumably be in the third district. So far Mike Sherzan is the only declared challenger to 10-term incumbent Republican Tom Latham.

The full statement from Krause is after the jump. He and Governor Terry Branstad go way back; during the 1970s, they served in the Iowa House at the same time, representing districts next door (two halves of the same Iowa Senate district).

Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum does not plan to run for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district but is considering a run for governor in 2014, she confirmed in a telephone interview today.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? A few links related to Iowa demographics are after the jump, along with highlights from this week’s “Iowa Press” program, featuring Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson.

This is an open thread.

Governor Terry Branstad is a “pretty clear favorite” for re-election, according to a new Iowa poll by Public Policy Polling.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. To get a conversation started, I posted a bunch of links about campaign finance after the jump, focusing on news related to Iowa’s 2014 contests for U.S. senator and governor.

At the end I included an old but “new to me” story about Ron Paul’s habit of double-billing travel expenses. What will his admirers in the Liberty movement say?

Terrible news for Iowa Democrats: Senator Tom Harkin told Tom Beaumont of the Associated Press that he will retire rather than seek re-election in 2014. Not only will there be an open seat at the top of the ticket, the Iowa Democratic Party won’t be able to count on Harkin’s millions to fund a decent coordinated GOTV campaign in a midterm election year. Even if Democrats manage to win that statewide race while Governor Terry Branstad’s also on the ballot, we will lose an Iowan in charge of a powerful Senate committee. Incoming Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson has a difficult road ahead.

Representative Bruce Braley is likely to run for Harkin’s seat, and unless either Tom or Christie Vilsack is interested, the primary would probably be uncontested. The silver lining here is a chance to elect a woman to Congress in IA-01. Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum would be my first choice, but there are many capable Democratic women in those 20 counties.

An excerpt from Braley’s appearance on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” this weekend is after the jump. I’ll post further updates there. UPDATE: Much more is below, including the statement from Harkin’s office.

State Representative Tyler Olson told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he has enough support on the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee to be chosen as state party chair this Saturday. Some background information on Olson is after the jump.