The Iowa State Fair opens this morning and runs through the evening of August 19. This thread is for any comments about the fair or advice for enjoying what can be an overwhelming experience. I’ve posted my suggestions after the jump.

All the Democratic and Republican candidates from Iowa’s four Congressional districts are scheduled to speak at the Des Moines Register’s “soapbox” between August 13 and 17. That schedule is at the end of this post. UPDATE: Some of the speaking times have changed on the soapbox schedule, and a few new speakers have been added, including Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack.

When is a vote for extending the Bush tax cuts at all income levels “protecting the middle class”? Apparently, only when Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) does it.

For the fifth month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 659,838 active no-party voters statewide, 620,584 active Republicans, and 598,995 active Democrats.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is still Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,723 registered Democrats, 1,791 Republicans, and 1,751 no-party voters as of August 2.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.  

The U.S. House responded to this year’s widespread drought by passing an agricultural disaster assistance bill yesterday with unanimous support from Iowa’s five representatives. However, not all the Iowans were enthusiastic about the effort.

Meanwhile, four of Iowa’s five House members voted against adjourning for the August recess yesterday, in large part because of unfinished work on a farm bill. Details on those and other House votes affecting the agricultural sector are after the jump.

The U.S. House voted yesterday to extend for one year all the tax rates established by the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Without Congressional action, those tax cuts will expire at the end of 2012. Once again, three-term Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among a small group of Democrats to vote for a GOP bill.

For every Congressional vote this year on a bill that might become law, there are lots of votes designed solely to make a political point. So it was with yesterday’s U.S. House vote on a bill to ban late-term abortions in Washington, DC.

For a good example of gamesmanship on Capitol Hill, look no further than yesterday’s U.S. House votes on offshore oil drilling. Republicans pushed a bill that won’t go anywhere in order to score points against the president’s energy policy. Democrats added language about U.S. sanctions against Iran and Syria to their motion to recommit in order to accuse Republicans of showing “reckless disregard for American national security.”

Yet again, Representatives Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the Democrats who voted with Republicans on legislation affecting the oil industry.

Iowa’s five U.S. House members helped approve one of Representative Ron Paul’s top legislative priorities yesterday.  

Four of Iowa’s five Congressional incumbents go into the final months of the campaign with far more cash on hand than their opponents. Details from the second quarter filings with the Federal Election Commission are after the jump.

The latest round of reports cover funds Congressional candidates raised and spent between May 17 and June 30. Bleeding Heartland covered the first-quarter FEC reports here and the “pre-primary” reports covering April 1 to May 16 here.

The U.S. House approved a defense budget for fiscal year 2013 yesterday by 326 votes to 90 (roll call). Four of the five members of Iowa’s delegation supported the bill. After the jump I’ve posted details about how the Iowans voted on key defense budget amendments as well as on final passage. Statements released by each of the representatives are at the end of this post.

The National Republican Congressional Committee just announced the third set of GOP challengers to achieve “young guns” status, “the top tier of the Committee’s four-level ‘Young Guns’ recruitment program.” Two of the seven candidates to make the cut are Ben Lange, who is running against three-term Democrat Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district, and John Archer, who is running against three-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second Congressional district. The NRCC elevated Lange and Archer to “contender” status in May, along with Archer’s primary opponent Dan Dolan.

The U.S. House voted today to repeal the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as health care reform.  

The U.S. House is back in session this week, and it’s time for Bleeding Heartland to catch up on Congressional news from before the July 4 recess. After the jump I’ve posted details about how the Iowans voted on various bills and motions related to energy policy.

As a bonus, I’ve included some textbook sleight of hand by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. DCCC press releases hammered Republicans Tom Latham and Steve King for backing “Big Oil” interests during House debate on the Strategic Energy Production Act. But the DCCC glossed over the fact that Latham’s opponent in Iowa’s third district, Representative Leonard Boswell, was one of 19 House Democrats to vote with Republicans for final passage of that very bad bill.  

For the fourth month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 655,457 active no-party voters statewide, 619,452 active Republicans, and 598,074 active Democrats. The number of registered Democrats rose slightly during the past month, but Republican ranks grew by much more, probably because of the many competitive GOP primaries on June 5.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is still Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,741 registered Democrats, 1,799 Republicans, and 1,753 no-party voters as of July 2.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.  

The U.S. Supreme Court today upheld the constitutionality of the 2010 Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act, better known as health care reform. I am shocked not only by the decision, but by the 5-4 breakdown with Chief Justice John Roberts (not Justice Anthony Kennedy) being the swing vote in favor of upholding the law. Most commentators and the betting site Intrade thought the court would strike down at least the individual mandate to purchase health insurance, if not the whole law. To her credit, Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times consistently predicted that Roberts would vote to uphold the law.

Any comments related to health care reform are welcome in this thread. I will update this post frequently during the day as Iowa elected officials, candidates, and activist groups weigh in on the decision.  

All three Iowa Democrats in the U.S. House voted for the 2010 health insurance reform bill, but last week Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans in repealing a tax established under the Affordable Care Act. It’s the second time this year that Boswell and Loebsack voted to roll back part of that law.

No public polls were released about any of the races featured in this year’s Iowa primary election prediction contest.  I suspect that’s why few Bleeding Heartland users took the plunge. But we do have a winner, and in fact it’s a repeat Iowa election prediction contest winner.  

Polls closed across Iowa at 9 pm, and I will update this post periodically as results come in from around the states. Any comments related to today’s elections are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- As expected, Wisconsin Democrats fell short in their effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

UPDATE: Results are after the jump.  

For the third month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa slightly outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 663,969 active no-party voters statewide, 607,936 active Republicans, and 595,423 active Democrats. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,749 registered Democrats, 1,783 Republicans, and 1,775 no-party voters as of June 1.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread. The deadline to enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2012 Iowa primary election prediction contest is Tuesday, June 5, at 7 am.

The two Republican candidates in Iowa’s second Congressional district have been campaigning hard through personal appearances around southeast Iowa, paid advertising, and direct mail. I have no idea who’s got the upper hand between John Archer, attorney for John Deere and Pleasant Valley School Board member, and Dan Dolan, a successful home-builder. Archer took leave from his job in March in order to campaign full-time. He also started running radio and television commercials sooner. Dolan’s self-funding provided his campaign with more money to spend during the final weeks. The National Republican Congressional Committee has given equal recognition to both candidates.

After the jump I’ve posted the prominent public supporters for each candidate, along with videos and transcripts for Dolan’s latest television commercial and Archer’s latest radio spot.

Iowa primary elections are coming up next Tuesday, so it’s time for another Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest. A dozen questions are after the jump. There are so many competitive Iowa House and Senate primaries that it was difficult for me to choose. I tried to achieve some geographical balance and cover different types of primaries (open-seat races vs. challenges to incumbents, safe seats for one party vs. swing districts).

To enter the contest, post your predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am 6 pm on June 5. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights. This isn’t like “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether or not they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

May 24 was the deadline for Iowa Congressional campaign committees to file “pre-primary” financial reports with the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from those reports are after the jump.

In a little-noticed vote last week, Democrats Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in backing language to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline as part of a major transportation bill.

Iowa’s Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman announced today by e-mail that she will not seek another term on the RNC this summer.

Catching up on news from last week, the U.S. House approved the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2013. Details on how Iowa’s five representatives vote on that bill and on important amendments are after the jump.

I also enclose the statements released by members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation. Not surprisingly, several self-styled deficit hawks bragged about supporting a bill that prohibits various cost-saving measures and mandates spending on some items the military doesn’t even want.

Some bad public policy ideas take hold because decision-makers become convinced they will work. Other times, bad ideas gain momentum because politicians who should know better are too scared or lazy to make the case against them.

In what looks like a textbook example of the second scenario, all three Democrats representing Iowa in the U.S. House are now on record supporting some form of constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget.

Not put off by picking the wrong candidates in two Iowa Republican primaries in 2010, the National Republican Congressional Committee has elevated Ben Lange to “contender” status in Iowa’s first district, while taking a neutral posture in the second district primary.

Republican Congressional candidate John Archer is up on cable television with a new commercial promoting his jobs plan. Follow me after the jump for the video, transcript, and analysis.

For the second month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa slightly outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 669,966 active no-party voters statewide, 608,096 active Republicans, and 599,225 active Democrats. Follow me after the jump for the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

Republican Congressional candidate Dan Dolan launched his first television commercial yesterday, a little more than a week after his primary rival John Archer went up on the air. The video and transcript are after the jump. Up to now, Dolan has spread his message primarily through personal appearances around the district and direct mail.

A more extensive news roundup on the Iowa second Congressional district campaign is in progress. Any comments about that race are welcome in this thread. William Smith reported for The Hawk Eye that delegates to the second district Democratic convention on April 28 were solidly behind three-term incumbent Dave Loebsack. I have not been able to confirm whether his primary challenger, State Senator Joe Seng, attended the convention as well.

Republican candidate John Archer has launched his second television commercial across Iowa’s new Congressional district. Follow me after the jump for the video and transcript.

Archer’s first television commercial ran for one night only on January 3. Last month his campaign ran a radio ad district-wide with a focus on gasoline prices and energy policy. Dan Dolan, the other Republican candidate in IA-02, has not placed any radio or television commercials but has spent a considerable amount on direct mail.

The U.S. House approved a bill yesterday to cut taxes by 20 percent for one year for companies with fewer than 500 employees. All the Iowans present voted for the legislation: Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) and Democrats Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03). Bruce Braley (IA-01) was absent. His staff have not responded to my request for comment on how he would have voted.

The roll call shows that only 18 House Democrats supported this bill. Once again, Progressive Caucus member Loebsack joined Republicans and a small group of primarily Blue Dog Democrats. Bleeding Heartland has discussed this pattern in the context of Loebsack’s votes for a balanced budget constitutional amendment, to block non-existent EPA regulations on farm dust, to make it more difficult for the federal government to regulate small business, and to extend a pay freeze for mostly middle-class federal workers.

After the jump I enclose a statement from King and more details on the Congressional debate over small business tax cuts.

While many Americans dread tax day, April 15 holds a silver lining for political junkies: the chance to read the latest federal campaign finance reports. Follow me after the jump for details on the money raised and spent by Iowa’s five U.S. House incumbents and five challengers between January 1 and March 31. Note: at this writing, Dave Loebsack’s primary challenger Joe Seng had not filed a quarterly report with the Federal Election Commission. I will update this post if one appears. He may not have raised enough money yet to trigger reporting requirements.

Click here for the latest voter registration numbers in Iowa’s four new Congressional districts.

Iowa Republican leaders were thrilled to learn this week that active registered Republicans outnumber active registered Democrats in this state for the first time since 2006. The Secretary of State’s office is working with county auditors on voter list maintenance. Voters whose addresses cannot be confirmed are being moved off the active lists, and in many counties, more Democrats than Republicans are being shifted to “inactive” status. Inactive voters are still eligible to vote in Iowa, but they must show ID at the polling station in order to vote on election day.

The Republican voter registration edge is likely to grow, because there are many more competitive GOP than Democratic primaries for the Iowa House and Senate. Republicans also have competitive primaries in two of the four Congressional districts, whereas Democrats have two candidates only in IA-02. On June 5, a significant number of Democrats and no-party voters will switch to the GOP in order to vote in a primary.

After the jump I’ve posted updated active voter registration numbers for Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The data come from this page on the Iowa Secretary of State website (pdf), except that I placed Wayne County in IA-02 where it belongs, rather than in IA-03. (UPDATE: That error has been corrected on the official site.) In some counties, the numbers are barely changed from last month’s figures. Other county auditors have taken many more people off the active voter rolls.  

Three-term Representative Dave Loebsack’s campaign moved quickly to define primary challenger Joe Seng after a panel confirmed that the state senator had qualified for the ballot in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s second Congressional district. A fundraising e-mail from Loebsack’s campaign manager Brian Fritsch on March 29 described Seng as the “Koch Brothers funded Democrat.” I enclose the full text of that e-mail after the jump. Fritsch declared in an e-mail blast last week, “Our primary opponent accepted sizable contributions from Koch Industries in the past, the corporation owed and operated by the Koch brothers. This makes my stomach turn.”

I didn’t find any Koch contributions listed on Seng’s two latest fundraising reports. During the 2010 campaign, he received two checks for $500 each from the Koch Industries PAC. That’s not a lot of money, but Seng doesn’t have many donors aside from political action committees that give to most Iowa legislators. Overall, he raises surprisingly little for an entrenched incumbent. I didn’t see any Koch contributions in Seng’s campaign finance reports from 2004 through 2009.

Any comments about the IA-02 race are welcome in this thread.

State Senator Joe Seng caught a lucky break yesterday when a three-member panel agreed that he qualified for the ballot in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s second Congressional district.

Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in voting yesterday for the Senate version of a bill designed to help small business start-ups. The five representatives all supported the original version of the bill earlier this month. Republican Chuck Grassley also voted for the bill when it came before the Senate last week, but Democrat Tom Harkin opposed it over concerns it would further deregulate Wall Street and undermine investor protections. After yesterday’s vote, Braley hailed the bipartisan action to “reduce small business restrictions,” while Loebsack highlighted provisions he advocated to promote small businesses owned by womens, veterans, and minorities. I enclose those statements at the end of this post.

Also on March 27, the U.S. House approved a bill designed to weaken the Federal Communications Commission’s ability to regulate. Iowans split on party lines. Follow me after the jump for details on that bill and various amendments debated on the House floor yesterday.

Friday marked the second anniversary of President Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, more commonly known as health care reform or “Obamacare.” After the jump I enclose lots of news related to the milestone, including comments from Iowa elected officials and statistics on how certain provisions affect Iowans.

This morning the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to start hearing oral arguments regarding the constitutionality of the health care reform law. Governor Terry Branstad signed Iowa on to one of the lawsuits challenging the Affordable Care Act last year. Near the end of this post I’ve included some speculation about how the justices may rule (or punt).

Someone has challenged the nominating petitions filed by State Senator Joe Seng, who is running against Representative Dave Loebsack in the second Congressional district primary.

Details are after the jump, along with the first e-mail blast from Loebsack’s campaign that discussed the primary challenge.

I’m posting the weekend thread early, because the filing period for primary election candidates in Iowa closed this afternoon. The Secretary of State’s Office posted the full list of candidates here (pdf). John Deeth has been covering the filing on a daily basis all month at his blog. Some highlights from races I’m watching are after the jump.

This is an open thread; all topics welcome.

UPDATE: Gotta agree with Senator Chuck Grassley: the History Channel is useless.