“It’s not about left/right, Democrat/Republicans, it’s about doing the right thing,” Kevin Techau told me on April 17, the day he launched his campaign for Congress in Iowa’s second district. “I think my record supports that that’s been the direction of my career.”

IA-02 wasn’t on either party’s target list in 2024. But Techau has potential to mount a serious challenge to three-term U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

This analysis assumes Hinson will run for re-election to the U.S. House. Although she has been mentioned as a possible candidate for governor, I doubt she would roll the dice on a statewide primary, where she would probably compete against a Republican with closer ties to President Donald Trump.

That said, if Hinson did seek another office in 2026, Techau’s prospects would improve dramatically. With rare exceptions, it’s easier for the party out of power to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. Hinson outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in 2024 and goes into this cycle with high name ID and more than $2.2 million in the bank, whereas a new GOP candidate would be starting from scratch.

DEEP ROOTS IN NORTHEAST IOWA

“I feel pretty comfortable in this district,” Techau told me during our interview, which you can watch in full here.

It’s easy to see why. Although he’s a first-time candidate for office, Techau has deep family roots and work experience across northeast Iowa. A sixth-generation Iowan, he lived in Mason City and Dubuque as a child and went to high school in Marion, a suburb of Cedar Rapids in Linn County.

After high school, his campaign website notes, Techau “worked third shift on the assembly line making circuit breakers at the Square D Company in Cedar Rapids,” and later “worked summers as a track laborer on the Chicago North Western Railroad.” He earned undergraduate and law degrees from the University of Iowa.

He’s been living in the Cedar Rapids area again since President Barack Obama appointed him U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Iowa. In that role from early 2014 to early 2017, Techau was the lead federal prosecutor for 52 counties, including all but one (Poweshiek) of the 22 counties that are now part of IA-02. This map shows the second Congressional district in green.

In a Senate floor speech supporting Techau’s nomination for U.S. attorney, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley said, “I’ve known the Techau family for decades and I know Mr. Techau personally. He’s even been a running partner of mine from time to time.”

Not only does Techau have many of his own friends and relatives across the district, his wife Stephanie Techau grew up in Cedar Falls. Black Hawk County is the second-largest by population in IA-02, after Linn.

“WE FOUGHT IMMIGRATION CRIME. WE DID IT THE RIGHT WAY”

Soon after finishing law school, Techau spent seven years on active duty in the Air Force. He then served as an officer in the Iowa Air National Guard for nearly 20 years.

During the 1990s, he worked in private practice and as a federal public defender before joining Governor Tom Vilsack’s administration as director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals in 1999. Vilsack named him Iowa Commissioner of Public Safety in 2002.

Techau’s early campaign messages lean into his military and public safety background. Excerpt from his campaign website (sections in bold appear that way online):

As a member of Governor Tom Vilsack’s administration, Techau oversaw law enforcement as Iowa Commissioner of Public Safety. As Commissioner, Techau had responsibility for the Department of Criminal Investigation, Iowa State Patrol, Division of Narcotics Enforcement, Iowa Fire Marshal’s Office and Traffic Safety Bureau. Among his accomplishments, Techau lead the implementation of Iowa’s Amber Alert system for missing children, stood up the Iowa Internet Crimes Against Children program to keep kids safe from online predators, enhanced the Drug Endangered Children Program, launched the Sex Offender Registry, fought for increased funding and training for firefighters, and increased state crime lab capacity. The Blank Children’s Hospital recognized Techau with the Safe Kids Iowa Leadership for his work as Commissioner of Public Safety.

[…] As the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Iowa, Techau oversaw the prosecution of federal crimes and was the top federal law enforcement official for 52 Iowa counties. As U.S. Attorney, Techau led an office that successfully prosecuted high-profile business crime, drug trafficking, environmental crime, gun violence, immigration crimes and health care fraud. Cedar Rapids Chief of Police Wayne Jerman praised Techau as “instrumental in stepping up the fight against the opioid crisis,” highlighting Techau’s service in tackling gun violence and drug trafficking.

During our interview, Techau highlighted his service in the Air Force and the Iowa Air National Guard and said he was “very proud” of two programs implemented during his time as state commissioner of public safety: the Amber Alert system and the Internet Crimes Against Children program. As U.S. attorney, he said, he was proud to be in charge of an office with good prosecutors going after corruption, immigration crimes, health care fraud, gun violence, and drug trafficking.

People expect government to work at the federal, state, and local levels to protect public safety, Techau said. “We work best when we work together, and she just doesn’t seem to believe in that,” he added, referring to Hinson.

I asked Techau to comment on what has been going on in the Trump administration’s Justice Department. He recalled three occasions when President Obama invited U.S. attorneys to the White House. “Each time, he said, ‘Remember, I appointed you, but you work for the people.’ And that’s really the essence of the Department of Justice. And I don’t think the current attorney general is really doing that.”

Techau added that he thinks “we work best when we work together in law enforcement, federal, state, and local. And they all have their roles. And it’s just not happening under this leadership. It seems more about retribution than, you know, going after the bad guys.”

When he was a U.S. attorney, Techau said, “We fought immigration crime. We did it the right way. Those are important laws, and I believe in enforcing those laws.”

“SHE’S TURNED HER BACK ON ALL THOSE PROMISES”

When Techau left the federal government in 2017, some contacts encouraged him to run for Congress. (Republican Rod Blum represented what was then Iowa’s first district, covering most of the same counties.) The timing wasn’t right personally or professionally. But after the 2024 election, the same people encouraged him again, and his family was supportive.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced in early April that it was adding IA-02 to its list of “districts in play.” The main campaign arm of House Democrats had previously indicated only Iowa’s first and third districts would be targeted in the 2026 midterms.

Techau told me he had already “gone well down the road” toward running for Congress before the DCCC changed its stance. “It was good news that they decided to rate this district as competitive,” and he thinks that’s an “accurate” assessment. He said it would give him “more credibility as I go out and tell my story.”

A common theme for Techau when speaking to me (and other interviewers) is that Ashley Hinson “has turned her back” on the district, not following through on the economic issues she campaigned on. He likes to say it’s not a matter of left or right, it’s right and wrong. He thinks he can do better and “stand up for what’s right.”

Asked which promises Hinson didn’t keep, Techau said, “It starts with the economic issues.” She complained the Biden administration wasn’t doing enough to bring down prices for gas or eggs or essential items. “And she’s turned her back on all those promises and aligned herself with Elon Musk.”

The reference to Musk was not a one-off.

“MARCHING IN LOCKSTEP WITH AN UNELECTED, UNACCOUNTABLE BILLIONAIRE”

Donald Trump carried the counties that are now part of IA-02 by about 4.4 points against Joe Biden in 2020 and outpolled Kamala Harris by 10 points across the district last November. While early evidence suggests Trump’s approval rating is falling, he probably isn’t underwater (yet) in northeast Iowa.

Rather than press a case against Trump, Techau is doing his best to connect Hinson to Elon Musk, whose so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” is taking a chainsaw to federal programs.

Techau’s first campaign news release didn’t mention the president by name. But it accused Hinson of “marching in lockstep with an unelected, unaccountable billionaire — as he rips apart our government and sticks it to the middle class.” The statement went on to say, “Instead of putting the whims of the richest man in the world first, Techau will fight to protect Social Security and Medicare, make health care more accessible and affordable, and strengthen the middle class.”

A quote from the candidate hammered the point home:

We’re paying the price for downright corruption in Washington—driven by an unelected, unaccountable billionaire. The special interests are getting billions in special tax breaks—while we get stuck with the bill. Ashley Hinson marches in lockstep with Elon Musk and his reckless, ruthless war on the middle class. We just can’t afford it any more.

In our interview, Techau didn’t bring up Trump but repeatedly referenced Musk and his “reckless” and “ruthless” approach.

There’s nothing wrong with going after waste, fraud, and abuse, but Musk’s method is “just chaos” that “doesn’t make sense.” Essential safety net programs like food assistance, heating assistance, and Medicaid are on the table, Techau said. People need to be able to count on getting their Social Security checks; closing Social Security offices and making it harder for people to get services “is just nuts.”

But Hinson is “nodding her head and saying that’s just what we need,” he asserted. He repeated that this isn’t a question of being a Republican or a Democrat. “It’s just, like, being efficient, doing the best you can for your constituents. And she’s not doing it.”

At Hinson’s April 24 public appearance in Mason City—the first in-person town hall she’s held this year—many constituents challenged her on the Trump administration’s mass layoffs and cuts to government programs. The incumbent didn’t distance herself from Musk’s efforts. Tom Barton reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette,

Hinson responded by highlighting the need to respect taxpayer dollars, cut waste and focus on policies that grow jobs in the private sector, including in the biomedical field, rather than by growing the size of the federal workforce. She said efforts by billionaire Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to root out wasteful spending, inefficiencies and fraud in the federal government frees up resources to ensure services and benefits are strengthened and maintained, and go to those who need them most.

Time will tell whether those talking points hold up. Musk could be a liability for Hinson (and many other House Republicans) if Social Security checks start arriving late, or other programs Iowans rely on are scrapped.

Hinson’s campaign doesn’t appear to have settled on a message against the likely Democratic nominee.

A JUMBLE OF MAGA-WORLD INSULTS

As a former television reporter and anchor, Hinson is more skilled than most politicians in setting the agenda for the news media. Her campaign tried to frame coverage of Techau by releasing a statement about his candidacy on April 16, the day before he launched. (She did the same thing in 2023 before Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery made her campaign official.)

The Hinson campaign’s news release had a Mad Libs quality, as if some consultant cobbled together a string of MAGA-world insults.

Today, the Hinson Campaign released the following statement on the candidacy of Kevin Techau to represent the U.S. Second Congressional District of Iowa. Kevin was a captain for Hillary Clinton, an Obama appointee, and a Biden donor. He is only running because of his vendetta against Donald Trump.  

“Kevin Techau is a radical Leftist who wants to return to Biden’s open border agenda and push the woke policies that Iowans rejected in November. Kevin is out of touch with Iowa values and would be a rubber stamp for AOC’s squad of radicals in Congress. Iowans will reject a Hillary Clinton supporting, Obama appointee, Biden donor.” – Addie Lavis 

When I asked Techau to respond to that statement, he wisely didn’t get into the weeds. He said he was proud to take an oath four times: as a member of the Air Force, while serving in the Iowa National Guard, as state commissioner of public safety, and as U.S. attorney. “Each of those oaths, you’re going to defend the constitution and do the right thing. The rule of law is important.” He said he’ll stand on his record and let others judge whether the statement was accurate. “I’m proud of the service I did and the people I served it with.”

It’s worth taking a moment to consider whether any of these talking points might be effective. Will northeast Iowa voters care that Techau was a precinct captain for Hillary Clinton before the 2008 caucuses? Will they look down on a former U.S. attorney simply because he was “an Obama appointee”? (Many of the counties now part of IA-02 voted for Obama twice.) Will they believe a former prosecutor “wants to return to Biden’s open border agenda” and “would be a rubber stamp for AOC’s squad of radicals”?

The OpenSecrets donor database doesn’t show any contributions from Techau to any of Biden’s campaigns. But if he were a “Biden donor,” would that matter to voters in 2026? (Disclosure: Techau has made three small donations to support Bleeding Heartland’s work in the past. He has not contributed this year, nor would I accept future donations, in keeping with my policy not to receive financial support from Iowa elected officials, candidates, or paid campaign staff and consultants.)

As for that supposed “vendetta” against Trump: the evidence is an open letter that more than 1,600 attorneys and law professors signed in November 2018, shortly after Trump had removed Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The letter denounced the president’s “attacks on the rule of law” and “outrageous attempt” to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Trump’s disrespect for the rule of law is even more apparent now, as his administration ignores court orders and deports people (including some U.S. citizens) with no due process.

Hinson stirred up animus against immigrants during the 2024 campaign, complaining about English language learners burdening schools and health care clinics across her district. In Mason City last week, she defended Trump’s deportation policies: “Look, we’ve got so many (pending immigration cases) that if we had every single one of these people have an individual hearing, it would take 100 years.”

But immigration may be a less potent line of attack against a Democrat who is a veteran and former prosecutor. And the issue may be less salient next year if Trump’s tariffs lead to a recession, empty shelves, or higher prices for basic goods.

Although Hinson doesn’t yet have a coherent message against Techau, she goes into the 2026 campaign strongly favored. The Cook Political Report rates IA-02 a safe Republican district; Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both consider the seat a “likely Republican” hold.

That’s because in addition to the usual advantages of incumbency, Hinson represents territory that has trended strongly toward the GOP over the past decade.

A REDDENING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

For many years, voters in northeast Iowa preferred Democratic candidates for president but were open to Republicans in down-ballot races. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which has measured presidential voting by Congressional district since 1997, this part of Iowa voted a few points to the left of the U.S. for president during the 1990s and early 2000s, while repeatedly electing Republican Jim Nussle to Congress.

The area seemed to trend blue after Democrat Bruce Braley was elected to Congress in 2006 (the seat was open because Nussle ran for governor). After redistricting in 2011, the area Braley represented—which like Hinson’s current district, covered most of northeast Iowa and was anchored by Linn, Dubuque, and Black Hawk counties—had a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+5. In other words, Iowans in that Congressional district had voted about 5 points more Democratic than the U.S. as a whole in the previous two presidential elections.

Given that context, many Iowa politics watchers were surprised when Republican Rod Blum overcame a Democratic voter registration advantage to defeat former House Speaker Pat Murphy in what was then IA-01 in 2014. Some saw that result as a fluke caused by an open-seat race; Braley left the House to run for U.S. Senate in what turned out to be a Republican wave election.

But Blum’s win was no fluke. Not only did Trump carry the northeast Congressional district in 2016, Blum won a second term in the U.S. House, and Republicans flipped several Iowa legislative districts in the area.

Democratic challenger Abby Finkenauer defeated Blum in 2018 by performing well in the district’s largest counties and keeping it relatively close in the redder areas. But Trump pulled Republican challenger Hinson over the line in 2020. Hinson matched Trump’s vote share across most of the district and improved on his performance in Linn County, where she had lived and worked for many years. The Republican also benefited from having no third-party candidates on the ballot when she ran against Finkenauer, as well as a big advantage in outside spending on her behalf during the 2020 campaign.

Democrats had high hopes for challenger Liz Mathis, who seemed to match up well against Hinson. But by November 2022, Democrats no longer had a voter registration advantage in IA-02. A weak statewide GOTV operation led to poor Democratic turnout in the last midterm.

Mathis was also at a huge financial disadvantage in her race against Hinson. While the Democrat raised and spent a little more than $4 million, the incumbent (considered a rising star in the House GOP caucus) raised and spent more than $7 million, according to the OpenSecrets database. Adding to the challenger’s difficulties, Republican-aligned groups spent spent more than $3.2 million on messaging that backed Hinson or attacked Mathis. National Democratic-aligned groups spent almost nothing on the IA-02 race during the 2022 cycle.

After Hinson defeated Mathis by 54.1 percent to 45.8 percent, her district dropped off the target list. Outside groups spent more than $20 million across Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts in 2024, but nothing in IA-02. Hinson was able to coast through the 2024 cycle. According to the OpenSecrets database, the incumbent’s campaign raised more than ten times as much money as Democratic challenger Corkery and spent more than seven times as much on the race. Hinson didn’t start running TV ads until about three weeks before the election and kept quite a bit of cash in her bank account, ending 2024 with more than $1.9 million cash on hand.

That spending disparity helped Hinson outperform the top of the ticket. She defeated Corkery by 57.1 percent to 41.5 percent, as Trump carried IA-02 with about 54.3 percent of the vote to 44.3 percent for Kamala Harris. (That was more than double Trump’s winning margin against Biden across the same counties.)

No wonder national election forecasters see Iowa’s second district as less competitive than the first and third. On paper, IA-01 and IA-02 look similar. Republicans have a small voter registration advantage in both districts (it’s slightly larger in IA-02). Both have a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, indicating that presidential voting was about 4 points to the right of the national popular vote in the last two presidential elections.

But Hinson performed better than Trump, while Mariannette Miller-Meeks in IA-01 was one of the country’s worst-performing House Republicans, relative to Trump’s 2024 vote share.

With all that in mind, why would the DCCC add IA-02 to its target list? There is a realistic road map for beating Hinson.

A WINNING PATH FOR TECHAU

Hinson defeated Finkenauer by narrowing the gap in Linn and Dubuque counties and running up the score in the rural areas. This post includes a table with county-level results from the 2018 and 2020 races.

The political map adopted in 2021 somewhat changed the configuration of this district. But the big picture remains the same: Techau will need sizeable margins in Linn and Black Hawk counties. He will need to do substantially better than Mathis in Dubuque and Cerro Gordo counties. And he will need to keep the race closer in the red counties.

I created this table using the certified county-level results from the IA-02 race in 2022. I chose that year because the midterm electorate is a better frame of reference for 2026. Counties are listed in descending order by number of ballots cast in the Congressional race.

Some of these northeast Iowa counties had enormous swings from Obama to Trump. As Nick Conway discussed in a recent Bleeding Heartland post, Howard County ranked tenth in the country in movement from Obama 2012 to Trump 2024. Chickasaw County ranked 20th, and several others in IA-02 are among the 100 counties nationally with the largest shifts to Republicans.

I asked Techau why he thought northeast Iowa’s political transformation happened and how he would try to reverse the trend. He argued that Hinson had “turned her back” on issues like bringing costs down and bringing good-paying jobs to Iowa. Main streets in towns like Oelwein (Fayette County) don’t have the resources they used to, like a shoe store or a bike store. Techau plans to put “the meat and potato, the kitchen table issues” for hard-working families “front and center.”

Running for Congress is expensive. Techau will need to mobilize high Democratic turnout and to persuade lots of swing voters. The first test will be raising enough money to reach voters district-wide.

Being listed as one of the DCCC’s “districts in play” should help with fundraising. However, it’s too early to know whether outside Democratic groups will invest significant resources in IA-02. During the 2022 cycle, the DCCC signaled it would target Iowa’s first and second districts, but national groups spent almost nothing on behalf of Christina Bohannan in IA-01 or Mathis in her race against Hinson. We’ve already seen some outside spending against Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa’s first and third districts, but nothing yet against Hinson.

The bottom line is that Techau has a realistic path to win, if 2026 turns out to be a good year for Democrats. But Hinson starts in a much better position than Miller-Meeks or Nunn, who will be among the top-targeted House Republicans in the country.

Final note: I have long believed Hinson plans to run for U.S. Senate in 2028, when Chuck Grassley’s term ends. I also believe she would be the most likely Republican appointed to replace Grassley, if he is unable to serve out his term for health reasons.

So whether or not Techau wins in 2026, Democrats have good reason to invest in IA-02 now, to build capacity for what is very likely to be an open-seat race in 2028 or earlier. If Hinson were appointed to U.S. Senate, voters would choose her successor in the House in a special election.

To follow Kevin Techau: website, Facebook, X/Twitter

To follow Ashley Hinson: website (official and campaign), Facebook (official and campaign), X/Twitter (official and campaign)

Top photos of Kevin Techau and Ashley Hinson were first published on their campaign Facebook pages.