The air war in Iowa’s first Congressional district is fully engaged, with four new television commercials in the last week alone. Three-term Democratic incumbent Bruce Braley started running a spot about veterans last week and went up on the air yesterday with a response to a new ad about Medicare, paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Last week Republican challenger Ben Lange launched his second tv spot, which depicts the national debt as unfair to the next generation.

More details on the new commercials, including videos and transcripts, are after the jump. Bleeding Heartland covered Braley’s opening tv spot here and Lange’s here.  

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 666,279 active no-party voters statewide, 620,868 active Republicans, and 602,636 active Democrats. That represents slightly larger gains for Democrats than Republicans since the beginning of August. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

The Rothenberg Political Report’s latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be “Democrat favored.” He puts the the “Toss-up/tilt Republican” label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven’t seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can’t keep pace with Latham’s fundraising. But he is an incumbent who’s represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.

Voting for the so-called “failed stimulus” has become a stock phrase in Republican attack ads against Congressional Democrats. But as Bleeding Heartland has discussed many times before, the “Great Recession” would have been more devastating without the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

State budget cuts are a huge drag on the economy. Follow me after the jump for a picture that’s worth a thousand words on how a favorite conservative punching bag helped soften the recession’s impact in Iowa.

Getting out the vote early was a major theme of President Barack Obama’s campaign rallies in Urbandale and Sioux City yesterday. Democratic candidates for other offices need a strong early vote as well, but there’s no sign the president is concerned about electing Democrats up and down the ticket.

Republican candidate Ben Lange launched his first television commercial of the 2012 campaign today. Like incumbent Democrat Bruce Braley’s opening ad in the first Congressional district, the 30-second spot emphasizes values the candidate learned growing up in a small Iowa town.

Republican candidates and elected officials are falling over themselves today denouncing U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin of Missouri for his claim that women cannot become pregnant in a “legitimate rape” situation. In contrast, Representative Steve King passed on an opportunity to pile on during a public appearance in northwest Iowa. Democratic challenger Christie Vilsack’s campaign is doing its best to seize the moment.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved more than $1 million of television advertising time in eastern Iowa, although it’s not clear how much the committee will spend to assist GOP challengers Ben Lange in IA-01 and John Archer in IA-02.

Democratic candidate Christie Vilsack launched her first television commercial across Iowa’s fourth Congressional district yesterday. The 30-second spot depicts the former Iowa first lady as a nonpartisan figure who’s willing to work with everyone to represent Iowa values. Follow me after the jump for the video, annotated transcript, and analysis of the Vilsack strategy.

I’ve also enclosed below the transcripts for the three radio advertisements Vilsack’s campaign has broadcast this summer. Whereas the tv spot does not mention Vilsack’s opponent by name, the radio ads paint an unflattering picture of Representative Steve King as a creature of Washington. A future Bleeding Heartland post will feature King’s campaign advertising.

Three-term Democratic Representative Bruce Braley launched his first television commercial of the 2012 campaign today. After the jump I’ve posted the video and transcript of the 30-second ad, along with reaction from the National Republican Congressional Committee. Last month the NRCC elevated Braley’s repeat challenger Ben Lange to the top tier of its “young guns” program.

Democrats have a voter registration advantage in Iowa new first Congressional district, but no-party voters have a plurality.  

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced his running mate this morning: Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the chair of the U.S. House Budget Committee. The two men are launching a four-day bus tour today. I don’t know what surprises me more: Romney not choosing Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, or Ryan’s willingness to give up his committee chairmanship for a shot at the vice presidency.

Democratic House incumbents and challengers have already been running against the Ryan budget. Iowa’s representatives split on party lines when the House approved this plan in April 2011, and Representative Leonard Boswell was eager to draw this contrast between himself and IA-03 opponent Representative Tom Latham. Having Ryan on the Republican ticket ensures that tax and budget issues will be at the center of the presidential campaign discourse this fall. Ryan’s approach to solving the long-term deficit problem asks virtually nothing of wealthy people but would devastate Medicaid, not to mention the Medicare program for future retirees. After the jump I’ve posted excerpts from a new report on the Ryan plan’s impact on state budgets, along the Iowa Policy Project’s comment on how the Ryan budget would affect Iowa in particular.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I will update this post with Iowa reaction and more news and links after the jump. Representative Steve King was enthusiastic about the pick.

The Iowa State Fair opens this morning and runs through the evening of August 19. This thread is for any comments about the fair or advice for enjoying what can be an overwhelming experience. I’ve posted my suggestions after the jump.

All the Democratic and Republican candidates from Iowa’s four Congressional districts are scheduled to speak at the Des Moines Register’s “soapbox” between August 13 and 17. That schedule is at the end of this post. UPDATE: Some of the speaking times have changed on the soapbox schedule, and a few new speakers have been added, including Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack.

When is a vote for extending the Bush tax cuts at all income levels “protecting the middle class”? Apparently, only when Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) does it.

For the fifth month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 659,838 active no-party voters statewide, 620,584 active Republicans, and 598,995 active Democrats.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is still Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,723 registered Democrats, 1,791 Republicans, and 1,751 no-party voters as of August 2.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.  

The U.S. House responded to this year’s widespread drought by passing an agricultural disaster assistance bill yesterday with unanimous support from Iowa’s five representatives. However, not all the Iowans were enthusiastic about the effort.

Meanwhile, four of Iowa’s five House members voted against adjourning for the August recess yesterday, in large part because of unfinished work on a farm bill. Details on those and other House votes affecting the agricultural sector are after the jump.

The U.S. House voted yesterday to extend for one year all the tax rates established by the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Without Congressional action, those tax cuts will expire at the end of 2012. Once again, three-term Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among a small group of Democrats to vote for a GOP bill.

A report compiled by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee has uncovered huge waste of taxpayer money and poor educational outcomes at for-profit colleges across the country. Senator Tom Harkin led a two-year investigation of the for-profit higher education industry and has been publicizing the report this week.

For every Congressional vote this year on a bill that might become law, there are lots of votes designed solely to make a political point. So it was with yesterday’s U.S. House vote on a bill to ban late-term abortions in Washington, DC.

For a good example of gamesmanship on Capitol Hill, look no further than yesterday’s U.S. House votes on offshore oil drilling. Republicans pushed a bill that won’t go anywhere in order to score points against the president’s energy policy. Democrats added language about U.S. sanctions against Iran and Syria to their motion to recommit in order to accuse Republicans of showing “reckless disregard for American national security.”

Yet again, Representatives Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the Democrats who voted with Republicans on legislation affecting the oil industry.

Iowa’s five U.S. House members helped approve one of Representative Ron Paul’s top legislative priorities yesterday.  

Iowa’s two U.S. senators were on opposite sides yesterday in near party-line votes on tax policy.  

Most of Iowa remains parched this week, with triple-digit high temperatures and not enough rain in the extended forecast. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced new steps yesterday to help farmers and ranchers facing the worst drought in decades. Details are after the jump, along with related news involving members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

Four of Iowa’s five Congressional incumbents go into the final months of the campaign with far more cash on hand than their opponents. Details from the second quarter filings with the Federal Election Commission are after the jump.

The latest round of reports cover funds Congressional candidates raised and spent between May 17 and June 30. Bleeding Heartland covered the first-quarter FEC reports here and the “pre-primary” reports covering April 1 to May 16 here.

The U.S. House approved a defense budget for fiscal year 2013 yesterday by 326 votes to 90 (roll call). Four of the five members of Iowa’s delegation supported the bill. After the jump I’ve posted details about how the Iowans voted on key defense budget amendments as well as on final passage. Statements released by each of the representatives are at the end of this post.

Yesterday Senator Chuck Grassley and other Republicans blocked an effort to bring new campaign finance disclosure rules to a vote in the U.S. Senate.  

The National Republican Congressional Committee just announced the third set of GOP challengers to achieve “young guns” status, “the top tier of the Committee’s four-level ‘Young Guns’ recruitment program.” Two of the seven candidates to make the cut are Ben Lange, who is running against three-term Democrat Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district, and John Archer, who is running against three-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second Congressional district. The NRCC elevated Lange and Archer to “contender” status in May, along with Archer’s primary opponent Dan Dolan.

The U.S. House voted today to repeal the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as health care reform.  

For the fourth month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 655,457 active no-party voters statewide, 619,452 active Republicans, and 598,074 active Democrats. The number of registered Democrats rose slightly during the past month, but Republican ranks grew by much more, probably because of the many competitive GOP primaries on June 5.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is still Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,741 registered Democrats, 1,799 Republicans, and 1,753 no-party voters as of July 2.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.  

U.S. House Republicans voted yesterday to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in criminal contempt of Congress for failing to release documents related to Operation Fast and Furious. Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) crossed party lines on that vote and on a related resolution authorizing civil court action to enforce a subpeona against the Justice Department.

A week doesn’t go by without some new ad related to the presidential campaign hitting the Iowa airwaves. The latest commercials from the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns are after the jump, along with highlights from Romney’s event in Council Bluffs on Friday.  

All three Iowa Democrats in the U.S. House voted for the 2010 health insurance reform bill, but last week Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans in repealing a tax established under the Affordable Care Act. It’s the second time this year that Boswell and Loebsack voted to roll back part of that law.

Representative Bruce Braley’s re-election campaign called attention yesterday to the political composition of Iowa’s new first Congressional district and to Ben Lange’s underwhelming performance in the IA-01 primary. Lange’s campaign responded with a less-than-convincing case for the GOP nominee’s strong prospects of beating the three-term Democratic incumbent this November.

For the third month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa slightly outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 663,969 active no-party voters statewide, 607,936 active Republicans, and 595,423 active Democrats. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The most evenly-split county is Decatur in south-central Iowa, with 1,749 registered Democrats, 1,783 Republicans, and 1,775 no-party voters as of June 1.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread. The deadline to enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2012 Iowa primary election prediction contest is Tuesday, June 5, at 7 am.

Iowa’s five representatives split on party lines as the U.S. House failed yesterday to pass a bill that would ban abortions performed in order to select a preferred gender.

May 24 was the deadline for Iowa Congressional campaign committees to file “pre-primary” financial reports with the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from those reports are after the jump.

In a little-noticed vote last week, Democrats Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in backing language to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline as part of a major transportation bill.

Catching up on news from last week, the U.S. House approved the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2013. Details on how Iowa’s five representatives vote on that bill and on important amendments are after the jump.

I also enclose the statements released by members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation. Not surprisingly, several self-styled deficit hawks bragged about supporting a bill that prohibits various cost-saving measures and mandates spending on some items the military doesn’t even want.

What’s going on with Brad Zaun? This month he’s stuck his nose into two Republican primaries that should be of little concern to a state senator from the Des Moines suburbs.

Some bad public policy ideas take hold because decision-makers become convinced they will work. Other times, bad ideas gain momentum because politicians who should know better are too scared or lazy to make the case against them.

In what looks like a textbook example of the second scenario, all three Democrats representing Iowa in the U.S. House are now on record supporting some form of constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget.

Not put off by picking the wrong candidates in two Iowa Republican primaries in 2010, the National Republican Congressional Committee has elevated Ben Lange to “contender” status in Iowa’s first district, while taking a neutral posture in the second district primary.

The U.S. House approved the Republican version of a bill reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act yesterday. Iowa’s representatives split along party lines, as did most of the House members.