Dave O’Brien launched his campaign for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district this week. Speaking in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday, O’Brien said he’s “sick and tired of playing defense” and ready to “go the on offensive with an aggressive and progressive policy agenda.” He called for policies oriented toward building the middle class and improving our infrastructure.

O’Brien’s campaign is on the web, Facebook, and Twitter. I’ve posted his campaign announcement and official bio after the jump. He emphasizes that he’s a “lifelong progressive Democrat”–an unspoken contrast with Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, who was a Republican until 2009, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, long known as one of the more conservative Democrats in the Iowa legislature. Vernon kicked off her Congressional campaign last month, and Dandekar appears likely to announce later this summer. Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy has been running for months, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic recently formed an exploratory committee.

After last month’s embarrassing failure to pass a five-year Farm Bill in the U.S. House, Republicans moved new legislation yesterday that included funding for agricultural programs but excluded the nutrition programs that have been embedded in farm bills for decades.

After Democrats forced a long slog through procedural votes, the Federal Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act barely passed by 216 votes to 208. Every Democrat present voted against the bill, as did twelve Republicans. The rest of the GOP caucus voted yes, including Representatives Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04). Last month, King tried but failed to muster sufficient conservative support for a farm bill including big cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (more commonly known as food stamps). Iowa Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) rejected yesterday’s bill. They were among the small group of House Democrats to support the previous version of the farm bill despite cuts in nutrition programs that drove away most of their caucus.

Comments from Senator Tom Harkin and most of Iowa’s House delegation are after the jump. I will update this post as needed with more comments from Iowa candidates or elected officials. At this writing, I don’t see anything about yesterday’s vote on Latham’s Congressional website. According to Radio Iowa, Latham “said he was disappointed with the process, but pleased the House was ‘at least able to pass the agriculture portion.'”

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar has resigned from the Iowa Utilities Board, effective July 22. Her resignation letter (pdf) does not give any specific reason for the decision but thanks Governor Terry Branstad for the opportunity to serve. The governor accepted Dandekar’s resignation and will search for her replacement. Branstad appointed Dandekar to the three-member Iowa Utilities Board in September 2011, forcing a special election in her swing Senate district (suburban Linn County). Democrat Liz Mathis won that election and was re-elected to a four-year term in 2012.

Dandekar’s term on the utilities board was to run through April 2015. I assume she would not leave that position unless she has decided to run for Congress in the open first district. I am surprised that she seems ready to follow through, because there have been few public signs of life from her exploratory committee since it was created two months ago. For example, there have been no postings on Facebook or twitter since May 9, nor am I aware of any press releases. In my opinion, the Democratic primary will be an uphill battle for Dandekar.

Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O’Brien has events scheduled for July 10 in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo. Assuming he and Dandekar both announce candidacies in IA-01, that makes five Democrats seeking to replace Bruce Braley: three from Linn County (Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, Dandekar, and O’Brien), State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic of Waterloo (in the exploratory committee phase for now). I believe at least one or two of those candidates will end up not filing for the ballot next March.  

Former State Senator Staci Appel rolled out her campaign in Iowa’s third Congressional district yesterday. Despite ruling out a race against ten-term Republican Representative Tom Latham earlier this year, citing “family obligations,” Appel filed papers with the Federal Election Commission a few days ago. After the jump I’ve posted background on the candidate, including her introductory video (with transcript) and an e-mail stating the case for her candidacy.

Many Democrats in Iowa and Washington have urged Appel to run for Congress, especially since Latham’s first declared challenger Mike Sherzan ended his campaign in April.

IA-03 is a swing district on paper, containing 157,406 registered Democrats, 164,101 Republicans, and 156,340 no-party voters as of July 2013. That said, any Democratic nominee will be an underdog Latham. He says and does little in Congress but has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.

Two-term Iowa House Democrat Anesa Kajtazovic announced today that she is exploring a run for Congress in Iowa’s first district. She plans a “listening tour” in the 20 counties. I haven’t seen a campaign website yet, but Kajtazovic has a Facebook page here. I’ve posted her official bio after the jump. Kajtazovic was first elected to an Iowa House seat covering part of Waterloo in 2010. Her primary challenge prompted then-incumbent State Representative Kerry Burt to retire under pressure. She has long been considered a “rising star” in Iowa Democratic circles. Running for Congress would mean that she cannot seek re-election in House district 61 next year. She tweeted on July 3, “‘Sometimes the riskiest decision we make can turn out to be the best’ a friend once told me……”

If elected, Kajtazovic would be one of the youngest members of the U.S. House (she turns 27 next year). She might also become the only Bosnia native in Congress. Her family fled the war in former Yugoslavia during the 1990s, and she commented today, “I was always pasionate about policy, and just what goes on in the world around. I think I was influenced at a young age that it really does matter, after going through war.”

The other declared Democratic candidates in IA-01 are former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon. I haven’t seen much sign of activity from former State Senator Swati Dandekar’s exploratory committee. State Representative Tyler Olson hasn’t ruled out running for Congress yet, but most expect him to announce a gubernatorial campaign soon. Like Vernon, Dandekar and Olson are from Linn County. Kajtazovic’s home county, Black Hawk, is the second-largest by population in IA-01, followed by Dubuque.

John Deeth is on board with Kajtazovic already. I’ll be happy to see any strong candidate emerge from a clean, competitive primary. It can’t be bad to have several Democrats pounding the pavement to ID supporters next spring. IA-01 leans Democratic but isn’t a safe seat, especially in a midterm election year. As of July 2013, the 20 counties contained a total of 162,549 active registered Democrats, 136,259 Republicans, and 192,142 no-party voters. UPDATE: Added Kajtazovic’s official announcement below.

The Brennan Center for Justice released a new study today in which Alicia Bannon analyzed judicial vacancies in federal district courts. Key finding: “for the first time in 20 years, judicial vacancies averaged more than 60 vacant seats for five straight years from 2009-2013, breaking historic patterns and delaying the resolution of critical legal disputes in civil and criminal trials.” You can find the whole report on “Trial Courts in Trouble” here. After the jump I’ve posted the Brennan Center’s press release and an excerpt from the report’s introduction, along with some comments by Jonathan Bernstein.

Since Barack Obama became president, Senate Republicans have increasingly delayed consideration of district court nominees, whereas previously only appeals court and Supreme Court judges could expect a politicized confirmation process.

Senator Chuck Grassley, the ranking GOP senator on the Judiciary Committee since 2011, has claimed that Republicans are voting on more judicial nominees this year than Senate Democrats did early in President George W. Bush’s second term. However, Bannon’s research confirms earlier analysis showing that Obama’s judicial nominees are waiting longer for votes than Bush’s did. Four and a half years into Bush’s presidency, the Senate had placed more of his judges on the bench. Unfortunately, Obama has also been “slower to nominate” judges than either Bush or President Bill Clinton.

After several months of preparations, Jim Mowrer made it official today: he is challenging Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. I’ve posted his formal announcement after the jump. His campaign is on the web here and also on Facebook and twitter.

Mowrer grew up in Boone and lived in Des Moines for a time after his tour in Iraq. He headed the Iowa Veterans for Joe Biden committee in 2007 and was Midwest Veterans Chair for the Obama-Biden campaign in 2008. He was a private contractor in Iraq during 2009 before getting a job as special assistant to the Under Secretary of the Army in the U.S. Department of Defense. Mowrer has also been a senior adviser to Vote Vets, a political advocacy group focused on veterans’ issues.

Mowrer recently resigned from his Pentagon job and returned to Boone with his wife and two sons. Speaking to Radio Iowa, he criticized politicians who focus on partisan sound bites rather than accomplishments:

“The work that I did there [at the Pentagon] was on making the Army and our defense more efficient and effective and saving taxpayer dollars and ensuring that we have the strongest Army the world has ever seen,” Mowrer said, “so I’m running for congress because I saw firsthand the problems and the damages that a broken congress can cause and I want to be a part of the solution.” […]

“Democrats and Republicans need to work together to get things done,” Mowrer said. “Regardless of party, people on extremes on both sides need to come to the table to find common sense solutions to make sure they protect middle class families like the one I grew up in.” […]

“Steve King isn’t working for Iowans. He’s not working for the 4th district and I have a record of actually getting things done,” Mowrer said.

Mowrer would need strong Democratic turnout and probably 70 percent of the independents to have any prayer against King. As of July 2013, IA-04 contained 127,701 registered Democrats, 178,309 Republicans, and 173,985 no-party voters.

UPDATE: Ben Nesselhuf resigned as South Dakota Democratic Party chair in order to manage Mowrer’s campaign. I’ve also added Mowrer’s official bio below.

Using an unusual voting procedure reserved for very important legislation, the U.S. Senate approved a comprehensive immigration reform bill yesterday by 68 votes to 32 (roll call). Every senator who caucuses with Democrats voted yes, joined by fourteen Republicans. The rest of the GOP caucus, including the entire leadership team and Senator Chuck Grassley, voted no.

In the run-up to the vote on final passage, senators considered many amendments to the immigration reform conceived by the bipartisan “Gang of Eight.” After the jump I cover how Grassley and Senator Tom Harkin voted on the significant amendments, as well as reaction to the bill’s passage from both senators and other Iowa politicians. Representative Steve King (R, IA-04) has vowed to block any comparable legislation from passing the U.S. House. He opposes any path to legal status or citizenship, even for undocumented immigrants brought to this country as young children.

The Republican field for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat continues to expand, as Mark Jacobs confirmed today he is forming an exploratory committee. He will travel around Iowa while deciding whether to run. Speaking to Radio Iowa, Jacobs laid out the case for his candidacy:

“This came about with the work I’ve done with ‘Reaching Higher Iowa’ which is a non-profit organization I started in January to advocate for improved public education in the state and I’ve had the opportunity through ‘Reaching Higher Iowa’ to travel all over the state and meet a lot of great people and through the course of those travels I’ve had a number of people that have urged me to consider the U.S. Senate race in 2014,” Jacobs said during an interview with Radio Iowa. […]

“Made the decision to move home. I’ve been teaching up at Iowa State in the business school which has been a terrific experience for me to try to bring a little bit of the real-life business experiences and give students a glimpse of that and I started ‘Reaching Higher Iowa’ in January of this year to advocate for improved public education,” Jacobs said. […]

“I have approached everything I have done with good old-fashioned Iowa values and common sense business principles,” Jacobs said, “and one of the things I learned over the course of my business career that in order to solve problems you need to understand the root cause and you need to listen to people at a grassroots level.”

Some Republican activists may question whether Jacobs is a true believer in social conservative causes, but I believe others will be attracted to his resume. Business owner Mike Whalen easily won the GOP primary to represent IA-01 in 2006 against two rivals who were more politically experienced.

The Iowa Democratic Party launched its opening salvo against Jacobs this afternoon. In a statement I’ve posted after the jump, IDP executive director Troy Price criticized Jacobs’ “Wall Street background” as “out-of-step with Iowa.”

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley is sticking to his promise not to play favorites in the GOP primary for the open U.S. Senate seat. Last week news emerged that Grassley will be a “special guest” at fundraisers for his former chief of staff, David Young. This week both Matt Whitaker and Sam Clovis revealed that Iowa’s senior senator has offered to be a guest at fundraisers for their own Senate campaigns. Whitaker said in a statement that he looks forward to Grassley’s “help and his counsel”. Clovis told the Des Moines Register,

“He wanted to commend me for being in the race,” said Clovis, a Sioux City conservative radio personality and college economics professor. “He said he had to remain neutral in this primary … and he wanted to make sure everything was being played even.” […]

Clovis said he and the senator have “a great relationship” after years of animated discussions on the radio.

Grassley has repeatedly expressed concern that Representative Bruce Braley, who is unchallenged in the Democratic primary for Senate, will go into the general election with a financial advantage.

Speaking to Cameron Joseph of The Hill, The Iowa Republican blogger Craig Robinson sounded a more skeptical note: “Yes, Grassley says he’s neutral, but nearly everyone connected to him is supporting Young. Appearance and perception are two different things. The whole Grassley operation is helping Young.”

State Representative Mark Lofgren of Muscatine will formally announce tomorrow that he is running against four-term Representative Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second Congressional district, James Q. Lynch reported today for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. After the jump I’ve posted Lofgren’s official bio and material from the “issues” and “endorsements” pages of his campaign website. Of the seventeen current Iowa House Republicans and four former state representatives who have endorsed Lofgren, four live in Loebsack’s district. Dan Dolan, who lost last year’s GOP primary in IA-02 to John Archer, has also endorsed Lofgren.

As of June 2013, the 24 counties in IA-02 contain 170,130 active registered Democrats, 138,390 Republicans, and 180,950 no-party voters. Loebsack defeated Archer by a comfortable margin in 2012, but in the 2010 midterm election he needed help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to fend off a challenge by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, winning by only about 11,000 votes in what was then a more Democratic-leaning district.

Governor Terry Branstad appointed Miller-Meeks to lead the Iowa Department of Public Health in 2011. The GOP challenger to Loebsack in 2008 as well as 2010, Miller-Meeks has attended some Republican Party events this year and confirmed last week that she is still considering a third Congressional bid. Having fallen short in the 2010 Republican wave, Miller-Meeks would likely face an uphill battle persuading GOP primary voters that she deserves another chance to win this district.

Lofgren’s decision leaves Iowa House district 91 open for the 2014 election cycle. This swing district currently contains 6,300 registered Democrats, 6,291 Republicans, and 8,401 no-party voters. A detailed district map is at the bottom of this post. Democrat Nathan Reichert represented the Muscatine area in the Iowa House for three terms, losing to Lofgren in the 2010 wave. Lofgren defeated Democratic challenger John Dabeet last year by 915 votes.

Catching up on news from last week, two-time Republican nominee Ben Lange has confirmed that he will not run for Congress next year in the open first district. Lange’s written statement, which I enclose at the end of this post, cited family reasons. As a practical matter, he would have been an underdog to win the nomination in IA-01 for a third time. He barely defeated Rod Blum in the 2012 primary despite having raised far more money and hired a larger campaign staff. In that race, many prominent Iowa Republicans and the National Republican Congressional Committee favored Lange, probably because he had come so close to defeating incumbent Bruce Braley in 2010. But Braley easily won re-election last year, carrying 17 of the 20 counties in IA-01.

Also last week, Blum previewed his case against likely primary rival Kraig Paulsen, the speaker of the Iowa House. I recommend reading the whole article by James Q. Lynch for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. A few excerpts are after the jump. I believe that Blum’s attacks on Paulsen will resonate with many activists who participate in Republican primaries.

Sam Clovis announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Clovis is ending his conservative talk radio program and has a sabbatical for the coming academic year from Morningside College in Sioux City. After the jump I’ve posted more background on Clovis, including the statement of purpose he posted on his campaign website, as well as highlights from his news conference yesterday. You can watch clips from his speech here, and he is on Twitter here. Many Iowa conservatives will buy what Clovis is selling, but can he raise the money to run a strong statewide campaign?

Meanwhile, Alexander Burns reported at Politico yesterday that State Senator Joni Ernst is consulting with GOP strategist David Polyansky as she lays the groundwork for a Senate campaign.

“She’s making all the steps necessary to advance towards a campaign,” said one Republican close to Ernst. “I think she has the core nucleus [of a campaign] in place so that, should she decide to pull the trigger, she’d be able to do so fairly soon.”

The Sunday Des Moines Register featured a guest editorial by Mark Jacobs, a former energy company executive who is also considering the Senate race. After the jump I’ve posted some bullet points from that editorial, which focused on next steps for Iowa in education reform.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2014 primary, a statewide convention will determine the GOP nominee for Senate.

UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Polyansky previously worked for the presidential campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann, although he bailed on Bachmann a few months before the Iowa caucuses.

SECOND UPDATE: I keep forgetting Paul Lunde, who is also seeking the GOP nomination for Senate. James Lynch reports that if elected, Lunde “plans to introduce what he calls the ‘second Bill of Rights’ – 12 constitutional amendments that include making Social Security and Medicare permanent, changing the Electoral College, instituting a limited national sales tax and setting term limits for members of Congress.”

David Young and his campaign recently released an introductory video to youtube that runs about two and a half minutes.  The video is here.  I am sure I do not agree with Mr. Young on much and I have any number of critiques of his video.  However, it is a good video.  It does seem genuine; genuinely nerdy, but genuine.  

The biggest thing that struck me is the emotional experience of going back to your hometown to tell the people who will always know you best that you are going to ask them for their vote.  It is a combination of the beginning of a person’s biggest professional challenge in their lifetime with a “this is your life” trip bringing back personalities and memories from childhood.  David Young does not strike me a person who wears his emotions on his sleeve, but from personal experience I guarantee that this was a powerful event for him.  

Representative Bruce Braley and the Republicans seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin are little known among Iowans, judging from the Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll. Selzer & Co. surveyed 809 Iowa adults for the Register between June 2 and 5 and found that 57 percent didn’t know enough about Braley to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him. Even among respondents living in the first Congressional district, 34 percent were unsure about Braley.

The two declared Republican candidates for Senate, David Young and Matt Whitaker, were unknown to 74 percent and 82 percent of respondents, respectively. (For the record, I doubt that 26 percent of Iowans are truly familiar with Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff. David Young is a fairly common name.) Some 88 percent said they were unsure about State Senator Joni Ernst, who is considered likely to run for Senate. Quinnipiac’s recent Iowa poll also indicated that few voters have an opinion about the likely Senate candidates.

The good news for all the candidates (including those not polled, such as Republican Sam Clovis) is that they have time to raise name recognition. Braley may also be relieved to know that of the respondents who expressed an opinion, 29 percent viewed him very or mostly favorably, while only 14 percent viewed him very or mostly unfavorably.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.

Conservative talk radio host and Morningside College professor Sam Clovis plans a press conference on June 10, Bret Hayworth reported for the Sioux City Journal yesterday. Clovis has previously said he may run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. He declined to specify whether he will announce a Senate campaign on Monday, but said he will disclose news “that affects my future” and “is a commitment for something down the road.” These comments seem to indicate that Clovis is leaning toward running:

“I’m a very principled man, a man of great integrity, so that is a skill set that I think is very much there,” he said.

“I’ve been a natural leader my whole life and I think those are, again, skills that are very lacking in Washington. Because we don’t have people who are willing to stand up and tell people the truth and then stick to their principles to make sure that happens. Everything seems to be about self-interest, nothing seems to be about the people of the country.”

Clovis added, “I’ve been an executive, I’ve been in business, non-profit, for-profit, education, military service second to none, a very distinguished career there. So I have all of the credentials that one would need to be a person that one would look to to lead and do the things that are necessary to lead this country, particularly if one pursued public office in the United States Senate.”

I have no idea whether Clovis can raise enough money to run a credible statewide campaign, but having hosted a radio show for the past two years, he probably has better communication skills than any other potential Republican candidate. As a self-described “red-meat conservative,” Clovis would compete aggressively in a primary. Both of the declared GOP Senate candidates have vulnerabilities: Matt Whitaker failed to stake out a clear position on “Obamacare,” and David Young (amazingly) was not familiar with the “fair tax” proposal.  

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon launched her campaign for Congress in Iowa’s first district today. Her website currently contains only a donation button and a brief statement, which I’ve posted after the jump. Vernon was first elected to the city council as a Republican in 2007, changed her party affiliation in 2009, and was easily re-elected in 2011.

Vernon just joined twitter and is on Facebook here. As of 2 pm on June 4, Vernon’s page had 73 “likes.” The Facebook page for the Swati Dandekar exploratory committee was launched on May 9 and has six “likes” at this writing. UPDATE: As of 9 am on June 5, Vernon for Congress has 480 Facebok “likes.”

Many Democrats are eager to nominate a woman in IA-01, so that we can end our state’s embarrassing connection to Mississippi.

The latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in this Congressional district are after the jump as well. IA-01 leans Democratic, and Linn County is the largest by population.

State Senator Jeff Danielson e-mailed supporters Monday evening to announce,

I will not be seeking any office during the 2014 elections. I’ve received tremendous support and encouragement by Iowans from all walks of life to run for either Congress or statewide office. It’s been overwhelming for an Iowa kid from humble beginnings.

I have obligations to family, work and community here in the Cedar Valley that I enjoy and want to devote my energy to at this moment in time.

Thanks again for your continued support and I look forward to working with you to keep Iowa pro-growth & progressive for years to come.

Iowa’s first Congressional district covers 20 counties, including the Waterloo/Cedar Falls metro area in Black Hawk County. State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy in that district, left open when Representative Bruce Braley decided to run for U.S. Senate. Cedar Rapids City Council Member Monica Vernon is a likely Democratic candidate, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, also of Linn County, has formed an exploratory committee.

Senator Chuck Grassley’s former chief of staff David Young and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker have both officially entered the U.S. Senate race. Highlights from the candidates’ announcements and recent interviews are after the jump.

Any comments about the IA-Sen campaign are welcome in this thread.

It’s time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he’s keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.  

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon “is nearly ready to announce” her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff’s attorney Dave O’Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O’Brien’s background is similar to Bruce Braley’s before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn’t ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he’s thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is “90 percent” likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It’s also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn’t dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.  

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar confirmed today that she is considering a campaign in Iowa’s open first Congressional district. State Senator Wally Horn of Cedar Rapids and Tina Patterson of Marion will co-chair her exploratory committee. Dandekar expects to decide this summer whether to run for Congress. In the meantime, she will continue serving on the Iowa Utilities Board but will “not participate in decisions of any contested matters before the board.”

Bleeding Heartland discussed Dandekar’s potential strengths and weaknesses as a candidate here. I remain skeptical that she would win a Democratic primary, because of her legislative voting record and her decision to put the Iowa Senate majority in jeopardy in 2011, when she accepted Governor Terry Branstad’s appointment to the Iowa Utilities Board. Dandekar emphasized in a statement today, ” I know it is important to the people living in Northeast Iowa to continue the strong representation established by Congressman Bruce Braley. We must keep this seat in Democratic hands.”  

So far State Representative Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in IA-01. Any comments about this race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added reaction from Murphy, details about the online presence of Dandekar’s exploratory committee, and the potential candidate’s official bio after the jump.

Nice scoop by the Des Moines Register’s Jason Noble yesterday: Mark Jacobs, the former president and CEO of Reliant Energy in Texas, may seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa. Jacobs moved to West Des Moines last year and recently founded an education reform advocacy group called Reaching Higher Iowa.

I’ve posted Jacobs’ short bio after the jump, along with initial thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.

CORRECTION: The Register’s Jennifer Jacobs was the first to report yesterday that Mark Jacobs might be a Senate candidate. In addition to other potential candidates Bleeding Heartland has discussed before (Matt Whitaker, Matt Schultz, A.J. Spiker, Joni Ernst, Rod Roberts, Bob Vander Plaats, and David Young), her piece also mentioned West Des Moines Mayor Steve Gaer, orthopedic surgeon Stuart Weinstein, McDonald’s franchise owner Kevin O’Brien, and business owner Ron Langston, who served “as national director of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Minority Business Development Agency under President George W. Bush.”

SECOND CORRECTION: I missed that The Iowa Republican speculated about Jacobs as a Senate candidate a couple of weeks ago.  

Successful campaigns require money and boots on the ground. Representative Bruce Braley is already trying to recruit the small donor and volunteer army he’ll need for next year’s U.S. Senate election.

Without Democratic primary competition or a Republican candidate to define yet, Braley can’t fire up his base by pointing out his opponent’s flaws. Instead, he is using online petitions to identify and energize supporters. So far, those petitions are narrowly focused on issues important to activist groups–in contrast to the broad themes of Braley’s message to Iowa voters as a whole.  

I expect at least one former Republican state legislator to run for the open U.S. Senate seat next year. Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals Director Rod Roberts told The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall that he is seriously considering the race.

“A few months ago I didn’t anticipate that running for the U.S. Senate would be a real possibility,” Roberts said. “Like most folks, I assumed either Congressman Latham or Congressman King would run. But, as the odds have increased that neither congressman will run, more people have encouraged me to think about it. At this point, I’d say I’m certainly considering the opportunity, and I’m planning to continue talking with family, friends and supporters in the coming weeks.”

Roberts represented the Carroll area in the Iowa House for a decade before running for governor in 2010. He was an adequate campaigner, but his principal role in my opinion was as stalking horse for Terry Branstad during the Republican primary. On the other hand, Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns believes Roberts would be the ideal Senate candidate for the GOP to run against Democrat Bruce Braley.

Any comments about the IA-Sen campaign are welcome in this thread. According to Hall’s latest post, State Senator Joni Ernst “has set a timeline of about 30 days to make a decision” about the Senate race. Bob Vander Plaats told the Sioux City Journal he believes Latham may change his mind about not seeking the Senate seat if Steve King decides to stay in IA-04, as expected.

UPDATE: In the unlikely event that Rod Roberts wins the Senate nomination, I think his move to reduce nursing home inspectors would become a general election campaign issue.

Last week, Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) voted for a bill that would force the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. He did not send out any press release explaining that vote.

A Bleeding Heartland reader contacted Braley about his support for Keystone XL and shared the congressman’s reply. I’ve posted it after the jump, along with information challenging some of Braley’s assertions.

The U.S. Senate voted 96 to 0 today to confirm Jane Kelly as U.S. Circuit Judge for the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. Press releases from Senator Tom Harkin and the Iowa Fair Courts Coalition are after the jump, along with Senator Chuck Grassley’s speech on the Senate floor today. He used that opportunity not only to support Kelly’s nomination, but to argue that Democrats and President Barack Obama “should have no complaints [about] the judicial confirmation process.” (I don’t agree with him on that point.) Grassley is the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Today the Blog of Legal Times described a fascinating Grassley connection that helped Kelly’s confirmation move “faster than any other circuit court nominee during the Obama administration.”

The Cedar Rapids Gazette reported last month that Kelly would be “only the second female judge in the history to serve on 8th Circuit and the only public defender to serve on the bench since 1891.” Harkin commented in today’s statement that as a federal public defender, Kelly “will bring a critically important perspective to the Eighth Circuit.” Obama has nominated “the highest percentage of former prosecutors” as federal judges, Harkin noted. Iowa’s Democratic U.S. Senator recommended Kelly for the vacancy last year.

Shortly after Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds ruled out running for U.S. Senate next year, Republican State Senator Joni Ernst posted on Facebook, “I will be considering a run for US Senate.”

Today Ernst and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey discussed the factors influencing their decision on whether to run for Senate.

In late February, Representative Tom Latham (R, IA-03) indicated that he did not plan to run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014. I took his statement at face value, especially since he told a conservative radio host that lack of interest in campaigning steered him away from a Senate race that otherwise “was a very, very good opportunity.”

Some politics watchers noted that Latham carefully wrote in his e-mail to supporters, “I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me, at a time when our nation desperately needs less campaigning and more leadership.” In other words, he didn’t explicitly rule out joining the Senate race later. Maybe those skeptics were on to something.

This week a “gang of eight” U.S. senators (four from each party) released an immigration reform bill. Jordan Fabian of ABC News published a good overview of the proposal, while Ted Hesson explained how the bill addresses seven of the “most-asked” questions about immigration reform.

Representative Steve King has long opposed creating any path to legal residence or citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Among U.S. House Republicans, he has been the loudest voice pushing back against the “gang of eight.” In the process, King reminded everyone why the GOP establishment will be so relieved when he finally acknowledges that he’s not running for U.S. Senate next year.

UPDATE: Added an official statement from King below.

April 15 was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file reports on their fundraising and expenditures for the first quarter of 2013. Details on all of the Iowa incumbents and some other declared candidates are after the jump. At this writing, not every report has been posted on the Federal Elections Commission website. I will update this post as more information becomes available.

State Representative Pat Murphy’s Congressional campaign released a list today of more than 150 Democrats who support the former Iowa House speaker’s bid to replace Bruce Braley in the U.S. House. The full list is after the jump, along with a statement from the campaign. Murphy has public support from one current Iowa Senate Democrat (Brian Schoenjahn), three current Iowa House Democrats (Roger Thomas, Mark Smith, and Bruce Bearinger), six former state representatives (Gene Ficken, John Beard, Tom Schueller, Dick Taylor, Kay Halloran, and Deo Koenigs) and two former state senators (Bob Carr and Mike Connolly). Other prominent endorsers include former U.S. Representative Dave Nagle, several union leaders, and eleven county supervisors.

Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in Iowa’s first district so far. His campaign raised about $68,000 between mid-February and the end of March, including more than $60,000 in contributions from individuals other than the candidate. A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland post will cover Iowa Congressional fundraising during the first quarter in more detail.

Most political junkies love a good brawl. While Congress-watchers were paying attention to fights this week over the president’s proposed budget, confirming federal judges, or tightening up gun ownership regulations, a non-controversial but significant bill zoomed through the U.S. House and Senate.  

Republicans thinking about running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year are still in a holding pattern, waiting for Representative Steve King to make up his mind. Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal just dropped his “King Meter” from 63 to 58, reflecting only a slightly better than 50-50 chance that King will run for Senate. If Bleeding Heartland had a King Meter, it would have started at zero and stayed there.

Today former GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Gross predicted that neither King nor two other prominent Iowa Republicans will run for the Senate in 2014.

Preserving battlefield sites from early American history would seem to be promising ground for bipartisan agreement. Don’t we all want future generations to be able to visit and learn about historically important places in this country’s pasts?

Today more than half the Republicans in the U.S. House, including Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04), voted against a bill designed to preserve Revolutionary War and War of 1812 battlefields. As Pete Kasperowicz reported for The Hill, the vote reflected a call to arms from conservative Heritage Foundation.

A Democratic challenger to Representative Steve King has emerged for 2014. Citing an unnamed source, Abby Livingston reported for Roll Call today that Jim Mowrer is “all but certain to run” in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district next year.

Some Bleeding Heartland readers will recognize Mowrer’s name. An Iraq War veteran who used to live in Des Moines, Mowrer headed the Iowa Veterans for Joe Biden committee in 2007 and was Midwest Veterans Chair for the Obama-Biden campaign in 2008. Since late 2009, he has worked as special assistant to the Under Secretary of the Army in the U.S. Department of Defense. Mowrer has also been a senior adviser to Vote Vets, a political advocacy group focused on veterans’ issues.

Livingston’s source says Mowrer has met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee staff and will run in IA-04 whether or not the seat is open. I am still confident that Steve King will seek a seventh term in the House, but he hasn’t ruled out running for U.S. Senate.

Mowrer could be a strong candidate, but the fourth district is very tough for Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office indicate that IA-04 contains 130,864 registered Democrats, 180,410 Republicans, and 178,050 no-party voters.

Confirming rumors that have circulated for the last two months, State Senator Liz Mathis told the Associated Press this morning that the timing isn’t right for her to run for Congress in 2014.

Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program today, Representative Steve King (IA-04) acknowledged that the open U.S. Senate race will be a “slight uphill battle” for any Republican, but asserted that he can see a “path to victory” if he decides to run.

I am still 100 percent convinced that King will opt out of the Senate race eventually, citing personal reasons (not political reality). Nevertheless, his comments on the Senate race are worth reading closely, so I’ve enclosed them below. You can watch the whole interview or read the full transcript here.

King claimed to be unable to think of any positions he has taken that are “out of step with Iowans.” Near the end of this post, I’ve suggested two issues that would become central features in Bruce Braley’s case against King.

President Barack Obama is taking another stab at the “grand bargain” he wants to strike with Congressional Republicans. Yet again, he wants to cut Social Security benefits for low- and middle-income seniors in exchange for token tax increases on the wealthiest Americans. He is offering this deal despite evidence that Social Security benefits are a growing percentage of retired Americans’ total income.

Obama’s biggest fans need to stop deluding themselves about “eleven-dimensional chess” and acknowledge that for whatever reason, the president wants Social Security cuts to be part of his legacy.

Mike Sherzan announced by e-mail this afternoon that he will not run for Congress in Iowa’s third district because of “personal health issues.” His full statement is after the jump. Sherzan says his campaign will return all contributions collected since he launched his candidacy last month.

I’m sure everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community joins me in wishing Sherzan a full recovery from his health problems. Any comments about the IA-03 race are welcome in this thread. Other potential Democratic candidates include former State Senator Staci Appel of Warren County and Dr. Andy McGuire, a health insurance company executive who ran for lieutenant governor in the 2006 Democratic primary.

Whoever takes on ten-term incumbent Tom Latham will face an uphill battle in the district. On paper, it looks like a tossup with 158,877 registered Democrats, 165,134 Republicans, and 156,973 no-party voters as of April 2013. However, Latham has routinely outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in his re-election campaigns.  

Seventy-six countries around the world have a higher percentage of women in their national legislatures than the United States. Iowa is one of very few states that has never sent a woman to Congress. The open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district is a perfect chance to leave Mississippi in the dust. Yet so far, no women have announced plans to run for the seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Three men are in the race for sure: Pat Murphy, Steve Rathje, and Rod Blum. Steve Sodders is strongly considering it and visited Washington last week to talk with Democrats about the race. UPDATE: Sodders has ruled out running for Congress.

The last time IA-01 was open, four Democratic men and three Republican men sought to replace Jim Nussle. Are we looking at a repeat?

For years, academic researchers have shown that “when women run for office, they perform just as well as men.” But they don’t run for office as often as men do for lots of reasons. A new study suggests that from a young age, women are less likely than men to consider running for office someday (full report here).

Iowa Democratic Party leaders should be working to recruit a top-tier female candidate in IA-01, a Democratic-leaning seat that presents the best opportunity of my lifetime to send a woman to Congress. But that’s not going to happen when party chair Tyler Olson is thinking about running for Congress himself. Republican Party of Iowa leaders should also be looking for a strong woman candidate to capitalize on Democrats’ strategic error. I doubt that “liberating” thought would ever cross the minds of the “Liberty” gang running the Iowa GOP.

Sisters are going to have to do it for ourselves. Whether that’s the “50-50 in 2020” organization co-chaired by former women elected officials and candidates or some informal group of political activists, it’s time to identify and encourage women to step up to the plate in IA-01–before the early declared candidates get a large advantage in fundraising and endorsements.