(Note: you may remember silver spring, who used to be a Clinton supporter and wrote a great analysis of the county-level results from Iowa and New Hampshire. I encouraged silver spring, who now supports Obama, to cross-post this diary here because it contains original and substantive analysis. Note to Obama supporters: this is how to make the case for your candidate. - promoted by desmoinesdem)
Measuring Size of Obama’s (Relative) Coattails on Congressional Races
This is a long diary to read so I will tell you upfront what my conclusion is after examining the recent SurveyUSA 50-state polling: Yes, Barack Obama may indeed have huge coattails for Senate and Congressional races in the fall. Now, to the long explanation —
The recent SurveyUSA polling indicated a relatively even match between Obama and Clinton re. who would have the most electoral votes when facing McCain. Obama’s total came to 280 EV, while Hillary’s was 276 EV – a seemingly even match:
http://www.surveyusa.com/ECV_5…
http://www.surveyusa.com/ECV_5…