We already knew Christie Vilsack was running for Congress in the new fourth district, but today she made her candidacy official at events in Ames, Sioux City and Mason City. During her announcement speech and in a video released by her campaign, Vilsack didn’t mention four-term Republican incumbent Steve King by name. However, she drew clear contrasts with his political style, promising to bring the “Iowa values of civility, responsibility and respect” to Washington.

Bleeding Heartland discussed Vilsack’s strong early fundraising here. Follow me after the jump for her announcement video (with transcript) and highlights from her campaign rollout.  

Iowa’s third and fourth Congressional districts are on track to have high-spending races in 2012, judging from the latest campaign finance reports.

Details from all the Federal Election Commission filings by Iowa Congressional candidates are after the jump. The big news comes from IA-03, where Republican Representative Tom Latham is building a huge money edge over Democratic Representative Leonard Boswell, and IA-04, where former First Lady Christie Vilsack out-raised Republican Steve King for the quarter.

For months, the Des Moines rumor mill has said former Governor Chet Culver was under consideration for some federal government position. The speculation was confirmed this week when President Barack Obama named Culver to the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation board of directors. An excerpt from the White House press release is after the jump.

Better known as “Farmer Mac,” the corporation purchases agricultural loans, in theory freeing up credit to “improve the ability of agricultural lenders to provide credit to America’s farmers, ranchers and rural homeowners, businesses and communities.” Farmer Mac also “finances rural electric and telephone cooperatives.”

Many Iowa politics-watchers will recognize the name of the Farmer Mac board chairman: Lowell Junkins. He served 12 years in the Iowa Senate, rising to the position of majority leader, before he ran for governor against Terry Branstad in 1986. President Bill Clinton appointed Junkins to the Farmer Mac board in 1996.

In April of this year, Culver formed a consulting firm “to work with individuals and public and private sector entities to provide strategic consulting, cut through red tape and promote cutting-edge ideas that will move the country forward.” He also became “co-champion” of the national popular vote movement, an effort to ensure that the winner of the presidential election is the candidate who wins the most popular votes.

There was bad news for travelers in north central Iowa this week. Delta Airlines announced plans to drop service to 24 unprofitable small markets across the country, including Fort Dodge and Mason City. According to KSCG radio, “Delta flights in Mason City have a 46-percent load factor, with Fort Dodge flights having a 39-percent load factor.” Senator Tom Harkin warned in a statement that Delta’s decision “could disrupt air service across the state, forcing Iowans to drive farther and travel for longer periods of time to meet their destination.  It will also negatively impact business operations in these areas.” Harkin noted that Delta is also seeking aid to continue serving Sioux City and Waterloo. The whole statement from Harkin’s office is after the jump. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill this year eliminating the Essential Air Service program, which subsidizes air travel to smaller communities. The Senate is trying to preserve the program, but House and Senate negotiators haven’t reached a compromise on that provision, which is part of a larger Federal Aviation Administration authorization bill.

By the way, that FAA bill passed the House on a mostly party-line vote (roll call). Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) voted for the bill, while Democrats Leonard Boswell (IA-03), Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Bruce Braley (IA-01) voted against it. Currently Burlington, Mason City and Fort Dodge are the only Iowa communities receiving support through the Essential Air Service program. Loebsack represents the Burlington area, while Latham represents Mason City and Fort Dodge. Both of those cities are part of the new fourth Congressional district, where King will be running against former First Lady Christie Vilsack in 2012.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: Someone tried to break into Representative Leonard Boswell’s farm outside Lamoni on Saturday night. Boswell was there with members of his family at the time. No one was seriously injured; a statement from Boswell’s office Sunday morning suggests that the intruder hasn’t been apprehended. That statement is after the jump.

More Iowa voters disapprove than approve of Terry Branstad’s performance as governor, according to the latest statewide survey by Public Policy Polling. Of 1,109 Iowa voters polled between April 15 and April 17, just 41 percent approved of Branstad’s performance, while 45 percent disapproved and 14 percent were not sure. In a hypothetical rematch between Branstad and Governor Chet Culver, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Culver, while 46 percent would vote for Branstad. Full results and crosstabs are here (pdf). Branstad was in net positive territory with men (45 percent approve/43 percent disapprove), but women disapproved by a 48-37 margin. The sample doesn’t perfectly match the Iowa electorate; I noticed that 38 percent of respondents said they were Democrats, 33 percent said they were Republicans and 29 percent said they were independents. As of April 2011, Iowa has 1,955,217 active voters, of whom 647,060 are registered Democrats (33 percent), 610,006 are registered Republicans (31 percent), and 696,061 are no-party voters (36 percent).

PPP’s last Iowa poll, taken in January, found only 40 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Branstad, while 44 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

The new survey suggests a plurality of Iowa voters accept marriage equality. Asked “which best describes your opinion on gay marriage,” 35 percent of respondents said “gay couples should be allowed to legally marry,” 29 percent said “gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry,” 33 percent said “there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship,” and 2 percent were unsure. PPP’s January survey of Iowa voters asked the question differently and found 41 percent said same-sex marriage should be legal, 52 percent said it should not be legal, and 8 percent were unsure.

PPP also recorded job approval numbers for Senators Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin and favorable/unfavorable numbers for Iowa’s five U.S. House representatives, Christie Vilsack and Tom Vilsack. Grassley and Harkin were both in net positive territory, but Grassley’s ratings (57/30) were much stronger than Harkin’s (47/38). It’s hard to read anything into the favorability ratings of the House members, since the opinion of voters statewide won’t necessarily reflect representatives’ standing in their own districts.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that to my knowledge, Chet Culver’s approval ratings didn’t fall to the low 40s until the second half of 2009, when he was dealing with a recession, state budget crunch and the film tax credit fiasco.

Representatives Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) are among 50 House Republicans the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting this week in robocalls to their new districts. King will run for re-election in Iowa’s newly-drawn fourth district in 2012; his likely Democratic opponent is Christie Vilsack. Latham will run in the new third district against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. The automated phone calls highlight the April 15 vote for Paul Ryan’s budget, which would transform Medicare over time into a voucher program through which seniors could buy private health insurance. Here’s the script:

Hi, this is Claire from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee calling about Congressman Tom Latham’s vote to end Medicare.

Everyone agrees we must cut spending and tighten our belt, but Congressman Latham has made all the wrong choices.  He actually voted to end Medicare, rather than end taxpayer giveaways for Big Oil making record profits or tax breaks for the ultra rich!

Seniors who pay a lifetime into Medicare deserve the benefits they’ve earned. Under the Latham-Republican plan Medicare ends, benefits to seniors are less, and costs to seniors increase – in order to pay for Big Oil taxpayer giveaways and the ultra rich’s tax breaks.

America is built on shared sacrifice.  Tom Latham is choosing to place the burden on seniors.  That’s not right.

Please call Congressman Latham at (515) 232-2885 and tell him to keep his hands off our Medicare!

The robocall against King uses the same script, substituting King’s name for Latham’s and giving King’s phone number at the end: (712) 224-4692.

The DCCC clearly sees Medicare as a central issue for the 2012 campaign. The new IA-03 and especially the new IA-04 contain a higher-than-average proportion of senior citizens. I think most incumbent Republicans will be able to explain away this vote, saying changes to Medicare wouldn’t affect current beneficiaries and Democrats have also voted for cuts to the program.

The 501(c)4 organization Americans United for Change started running a television commercial against King this week, also focusing on Medicare. Mark Langgin posted the video in this diary. He notes that Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey found Christie Vilsack’s favorables to be better than King’s statewide. Too bad she’ll be running against him only in the 39 counties that make up the new IA-04.

Under The Golden Dome has the story as well, but Americans United For Change has a new ad up going after some of the more conservative fiscal hawks in Congress including our very own 4th CD Rep. Steve King.

This also comes at a bad time for Congressman King as Public Policy Polling has new numbers from statewide Iowa polling – showing him having weak favorables statewide, and particularly weak favorables when compared to Christie Vilsack.

Former First Lady Christie Vilsack announced Wednesday that she will move to Ames next month and “continue to explore the possibility of representing Iowa in the US House of Representatives.” A Christie Vilsack for Iowa Facebook page and Christie Vilsack for Iowa website launched today as well. Vilsack’s statement and more news on the IA-04 race are after the jump.

Citing “several sources familiar with her thinking,” Alex Isenstadt reports at Politico today that former First Lady Christie Vilsack is leaning toward challenging five-term incumbent Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. Isenstadt notes that Vilsack met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel last week in Washington. Israel reportedly promised Vilsack that he would support her if she runs against King, but that he would “unequivocally” back Representative Dave Loebsack if she runs against him in the Democratic primary to represent the second Congressional district.

Isenstadt’s piece doesn’t clarify whether Israel promised the DCCC’s financial backing for Vilsack in an IA-04 race. The DCCC officially supports all Democratic nominees for the U.S. House, but usually only spends money on behalf of a few dozen candidates. The 39 counties in the new fourth district (map after the jump) are in five different media markets, although most of the population could be reached by advertising in just Des Moines, Sioux City and Mason City.

Last week the Des Moines rumor mill suggested Vilsack had been calling state legislators in the second district. According to Isenstadt, she has discussed a possible race against King with some Democrats in IA-04:

Jan Bauer, chairwoman of the Story County Democratic Party in Ames, said she spoke with the former first lady several weeks ago and that Vilsack raised the possibility of challenging the conservative congressman.

“I’d be surprised if she doesn’t do it,” Bauer said in an interview.

A campaign in IA-04 would be an uphill climb for any Democrat, although Vilsack would start the race with unparalleled name recognition and the capacity to raise significant funds. King has never been a major-league fundraiser; his latest FEC filing indicated that he had $142,610.38 in his campaign account as of March 31.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread. I think a campaign in IA-02 would give Vilsack her best chance of winning a seat in Congress and holding that seat for more than two years. On the other hand, I would enjoy seeing a serious and well-funded challenge to Iowa’s most embarrassing politician of my lifetime.

Final note on IA-02: Loebsack’s latest FEC filing showed $121,874.47 cash on hand as of March 31. Representative Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin headlined a fundraiser for Loebsack in Iowa City over the weekend. Next month, Representative Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Senator Tom Harkin are hosting a fundraiser for Loebsack in Scott County, while Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) plans to hold a fundraiser for Loebsack in Jasper County.

UPDATE: U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told Democratic state senators on Monday that if his wife runs for Congress, “it will be a holy war.” That suggests she is leaning toward challenging King, rather than forcing a Democratic primary in IA-02.

SECOND UPDATE: From Bret Hayworth’s blog on April 19:

This morning, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn was traveling through Northwest Iowa to talk politics, including making a stop to talk with me at the office. He was raring to talk about the possibility of a King-Vilsack matchup.

“She can try and take Steve King on, but I think that will be a great opportunity for Republicans to mobilize. A presidential year, having  a very highlighted race in Northwest Iowa, is a guarantee that we are going to be able to turn out every Republican and conservative vote that would benefit a presidential candidate, all the way down the ticket,” Strawn said.

“Not only does Mrs. Vilsack not have any natural connection whatsoever to Northwest and north central Iowa, but culturally is out of step. She’s someone that has an affiliation with some organizations that would certainly inflame a lot of the pro-life voters in this area… Congressman King has a national following as well, and he would have the ability to call in all sorts of resources to aid the fight.”

THIRD UPDATE: Matt Paul, a former staffer for Governor Tom Vilsack, told the Des Moines Register on April 19,

“I can confirm that Christie and Tom Vilsack have completed a transaction and are moving to Ames,” said Matt Paul, a Democratic strategist who was a staffer for Tom Vilsack when he was governor. […]

Paul declined to offer further details about Christie Vilsack’s political intentions, but said: “There will be an announcement very soon.”

FOURTH UPDATE: A rare moment of agreement between Governor Terry Branstad and me:

“Well, she’s never lived in northwest Iowa and it’s a heavily Republican area,” Branstad said this morning. […]

“I think in southeast Iowa she would be a pretty formidable candidate where she grew up,” Branstad said. “I think in northwest Iowa she’d be a fish out of water.”

Citing “a Democratic source in the Hawkeye State,” Nathan Gonzales blogged at the Rothenberg Political Report that former First Lady Christie Vilsack “is likely” to run against Steve King in Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district. Vilsack “has not yet made a final decision,” according to this unnamed source.

Sounds to me like an Iowa Democrat wants to show Vilsack how favorably a campaign against Mr. “10 Worst” would be received. However, I would be very surprised to see Vilsack run in the state’s most Republican-leaning district, rather than in the Democratic-leaning second district in southeast Iowa. If she won a primary against Dave Loebsack, she would be almost assured of winning the general election in IA-02.

On the other hand, the new IA-04, containing 39 counties in northwest, north-central and northeast Iowa, is less of a hopeless cause for Democrats than King’s current district. John Kerry won just over 44 percent of the vote in the counties that will be in IA-04, and Obama took just over 48 percent of the vote there.

If Democrats do recruit a strong candidate in the new IA-04, there will be plenty of small-dollar donors and volunteers willing to help retire King. But King has passionate supporters too, far beyond heavily Republican northwest Iowa.

Spin your own 2012 Congressional election scenario in this thread.

P.S.: Suzy Khimm of Mother Jones asked King this week about a Republican proposal to raise the qualifying age for Social Security:

Not every House Republican seemed so excited about [Senator Lindsey] Graham’s plan. Even on the party’s right flank, some members seemed wary of tackling Social Security, long described as the untouchable “third rail” of politics. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a well-known flamethrower within the party, demurred when asked about the issue. “It’s a delicate thing,” King said. “I represent perhaps the most senior congressional district in America. I’m not in a position where I can speak about [Social Security reform] publicly.”

According to the National Journal, 16.8 percent of the residents in King’s current district are at least 65 years old; that makes IA-05 the 18th “grayest” district in the country. The current IA-04 is the 37th “grayest,” with about 15.9 percent of residents at least 65 years old. I don’t know the exact figure for the new IA-04.

The reasons Christie Vilsack will run and win in the new 2nd

1)  She wants it.  She's made that pretty clear.  And the 2nd is her only viable option to Congress. Running in the 1st would be worse, running in the 3rd would be mutually assured destruction for her and Boswell.  The only other real option is the 4th and while she would be a hero for taking on King, it would be very tough to win and even tougher to hold.  Which district would you want to represent if you were her?

2)  Money won't be a problem.  She is married to the sitting Ag Secretary and is BFFs with the Clintons.  This is regardless of whether the DCCC supports Loebsack, which is an open question (it is not the same analysis as supporting Boswell because Loebsack is newer and the Dem will win the general regardless).

3)  She has a base in the 2nd.  Her husband ran up big margins in far SE Iowa during his Gubernatorial campaigns.  She still has a lot of connections down there.  Not only that, but Loebsack has been remarkably weak in those counties (Henry, Jefferson, Des Moines, Lee, Wapello, etc) and there are still a lot of Democrats down there.  Loebsack has no base.  Johnson County would be the closest thing to it and Iowa City  would obviously be the big prize in a primary, but she could compete there.

When I saw the Legislative Services Agency’s proposed map of Iowa Congressional districts, my first thought was that the third district looks a lot like the fourth district during the 1990s, except less dominated by Polk County. That earlier configuration helped Republican Greg Ganske defeat 36-year incumbent Neal Smith in 1994. Ganske was re-elected to represent IA-04 three times before leaving the House to run against Senator Tom Harkin in 2002.

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Congressional incumbent who lives in the proposed IA-03, and some people are spinning this map as great for Democrats because Boswell comes from and used to represent part of southwest Iowa. I disagree. Representative Tom Latham could easily move to Dallas or Polk County to challenge Boswell. Doing so would avoid a Republican primary in the new fourth district between Latham and Steve King. Latham seems like a stronger candidate than Ganske, while Boswell is weaker than Smith, who was a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee in 1994. Polk County has a Democratic voter registration edge and more than half the population of the proposed IA-03, but as a whole the district is politically balanced. George W. Bush carried the counties in the new IA-03 by 5 points in 2004; Barack Obama won the area in 2008, but by a smaller margin than his statewide edge over John McCain.

Not every Iowa politics watcher shares my view that Latham will move to IA-03 if the first redistricting proposal becomes law. After the jump I examine what could prompt Latham to stay put in Story County and what arguments would dominate a Latham-King contest.

Minutes ago the Legislative Services Agency released a new map of Iowa political boundaries, containing four Congressional districts, 50 state Senate districts and 100 state House districts. I don’t see the map on the state legislature’s official site yet but will update this post as more information becomes available today.

This thread is for any comments related to Iowa redistricting. I posted a timeline of upcoming events in the process after the jump.

I liked one veteran Republican lawmaker’s advice:

If the map is good to you, stay quiet, advises Rep. Stewart Iverson, R-Clarion, who was Senate majority during redistricting leader 10 years ago. If it’s not, stay quieter.

On the other hand, Kathie Obradovich’s counsel to legislators in today’s column baffled me:

Redistricting will be painful. Do it fast. [….] Hurt feelings and simmering resentment over redistricting can pollute the caucus and spill over into discussion of other bills. Best to get it over with as soon as humanly possible.

We’re talking about a map that will affect Iowa elections for a decade. If the Legislative Services Agency doesn’t produce a map that seems fair to both parties the first time, have them do it again. There is no perfect redistricting plan, but improving a mediocre map is more important than wrapping things up fast at the capitol.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register reports that the map throws Republican Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King together in the new fourth Congressional district. Democratic Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack are both in the new first district. Representative Leonard Boswell has the third district to himself, and the second district (which conveniently contains Christie Vilsack’s home town of Mount Pleasant) is open. Presumably Loebsack would move to the second district if this map were accepted.

Iowa Public Radio’s Jeneane Beck tweets, “If new map approved – 14 State Senate districts with more than one incumbent and seven with no incumbent.” In that case, I doubt this map will be approved.

SECOND UPDATE: The maps are now up on the legislature’s website, along with the proposed redistricting plan report.

THIRD UPDATE: Although Leonard Boswell has the new IA-03 to himself, it’s not a good map for him, with the district stretching to the south and west of Polk County. That reminds me of the IA-04 map from the 1990s, which helped bury Neal Smith.

I suspect Iowa House Republicans won’t be happy to see nine new districts where GOP incumbents would face each other. Three incumbents–Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, Stew Iverson and Henry Rayhons–all reside in the new House district 8. Only three House districts are home to more than one Democratic incumbent. The new district 13 in Sioux City would pit first-term Republican Jeremy Taylor against first-term Democrat Chris Hall.

FOURTH UPDATE: After the jump I’ve added some highlights from the Legislative Services Agency’s report. The districts don’t look very compact to me, but they are fairly close in population.

IA-01 has 761,548 people, -41 from ideal

IA-02 has 761,624 people, +35 from ideal

IA-03 has 761,612 people, +23 from ideal

IA-04 has 761,571 people, -18 from ideal

I also posted reaction comments from Representatives Braley and Boswell, Iowa House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky.

You can find the maps for individual Iowa House and Senate districts here and here. As a Windsor Heights Democrat, I don’t like the looks of my new House district 43 or Senate district 22.

FIFTH UPDATE: Swing State Project helpfully provides the presidential results for each new Congressional district.

IA-01 went 58 percent Obama, 40.1 percent McCain in 2008, and 53.1 percent Kerry, 46.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-02 went 56.6 percent Obama, 41.2 percent McCain in 2008, and 52.5 percent Kerry, 46.5 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-03 went 51.9 percent Obama, 45.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 47.1 percent Kerry, 52.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-04 went 48.1 percent Obama, 49.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 44.2 percent Kerry, 55.0 percent Bush in 2004.

FINAL UPDATE: Added Loebsack’s statement after the jump, which makes clear he would move into IA-02 if this map is adopted.

Bleeding Heartland will continue to cover the implications of the first redistricting plan next week. I’ll be curious to see what arguments people make at the public hearings, aside from complaints about communities of interest being divided. Not only are Linn and Johnson counties separated, but the Des Moines metro area is split among three districts.

Via John Deeth’s blog, I see Jake Wagman has a scoop in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

“Tell Christie I think it’s a great idea,” [Senator Claire] McCaskill said to [U.S. Secretary of Agriculture] Tom Vilsack after a press conference at the ADM grain elevator in St. Louis. “Tell her I’ll come up and knock on some doors!”

McCaskill’s endorsement is not without some complications, and not just because Iowa’s caucus status make its state politics of national import.

Census results will force Iowa, like Missouri, to shed one of its congressional districts in 2012. That means if Vilsack, who recently left her day job, runs, she’ll have to challenge an incumbent — most likely U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, an eight-term Democrat and Missouri native who represents the Des Moines area.

McCaskill knows a thing or two about primaries; she successfully challenged Missouri’s incumbent Democratic governor in 2004. I doubt the backing of a neighboring state’s senator would count for much if Christie Vilsack ends up running against Boswell in the redrawn third Congressional district, but it would be an ironic shift in alliances. In early 2008, McCaskill endorsed Barack Obama for president, just when Hillary Clinton’s campaign was riding the momentum from winning the New Hampshire primary. Both Tom and Christie Vilsack had campaigned their hearts out for Clinton before the Iowa caucuses. Boswell had also endorsed Clinton for president and pledged his support to her as a superdelegate. He continued to back Clinton in the spring of 2008, even though he was under pressure to switch after Obama carried IA-03 in the Iowa caucuses.

Because she is from Mount Pleasant, Vilsack could decide to challenge Representative Dave Loebsack in the 2012 Democratic primary to represent the second Congressional district. However, my hunch is she won’t run for Congress at all if she doesn’t like the look of the new IA-03.

Share any thoughts about Iowa’s 2012 Congressional races in this thread. Can’t wait to see that map on Thursday morning.

MARCH 31 UPDATE: I stand corrected. The proposed IA-02 map is a dream come true for Christie Vilsack. It’s an empty, Democratic-leaning district containing Mount Pleasant. IA-03 is much less appealing, heading south and west from Polk County without any of the Democratic-leaning neighbors (Story, Jasper, Marshall).

Christie Vilsack stepped down last week as executive director of The Iowa Initiative, the Des Moines Register reported on Sunday:

Vilsack said she was taking a leave of absence to protect the Iowa Initiative from any political implications. With the title, Vilsack also gave up a $127,000 salary. She remains board chairwoman and would be free to resume the directorship should she abandon a political path, she told board members.

Vilsack declined a Register interview request. But she provided a brief written statement that supports the point that her change in status was her choice.

“I didn’t want any speculation about my future to affect the important work of the Iowa Initiative,” Vilsack said in the statement. “As such, I am taking an unpaid leave of absence from the organization.”

Vilsack was also urged by the foundation that finances the group to step down in light of the increased political activity.

Officials with the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, the Iowa Initiative’s sole funding source, sent Vilsack a letter last month asking her to step down out of concern about her political activity’s relationship to the foundation’s tax-exempt status.

The letter was discussed during the Monday meeting [during which Vilsack stepped down] and shared with board members who were not present. Officials with the foundation did not reply to The Des Moines Register’s request for comment.

Stepping down was the right decision for Vilsack. Non-profit organizations with 501(c)3 status cannot endorse political candidates, and it’s safer to avoid any appearance of endorsing a political candidate. Having been involved with 1000 Friends of Iowa during the 2006 election cycle, I remember many people assuming (incorrectly) that the organization was backing Ed Fallon for governor, even though he had resigned as 1000 Friends executive director more than a year before the Democratic primary.

On a different note, I have to say wow, the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation has been funding quite a generous salary for a non-profit executive director in Iowa. As far as I know, few staff working for non-profits around here earn six-figure salaries, unless the organization has significant corporate backing.

As of yesterday, former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson was already listed on the Iowa Initiative’s website as executive director. Perhaps the board of directors had been preparing to replace Vilsack for some time, or they felt it was important to appoint a successor immediately.

While Vilsack continues to lay the groundwork for a possible run for Congress, eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell continues to signal that he is running for re-election again in IA-03. In January Senator Tom Harkin headlined a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign. Last month Boswell hired experienced campaign operative Julie Stauch to run his district office in Des Moines. This month House Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for the incumbent’s campaign at Roxanne Conlin’s home. In a statement to the Des Moines Register, Boswell said:

“Christie [Vilsack] is a good friend of mine and has been for decades. I respect and will defend her right to explore all her options, […] That said, it does not change anything that I am doing. I will be running for re-election and will be running from Polk County.”

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Iowan on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s new list of 15 “Frontline” House incumbents. Josh Kraushaar notes,

The Frontline program has always been a critical part of the House Democrats’ campaign infrastructure, supporting and expanding their fundraising and outreach operations and offering a signal to the lobbying community who’s the most at risk.

Boswell’s been in the Frontline program every election this past decade. With the exception of 2008, he’s always been a target for Iowa Republicans and/or the National Republican Congressional Committee.

In 2012, Boswell may face Christie Vilsack or other Democratic primary challengers. The DCCC appears to be signaling that they will support him in a primary as well as in a general election.

More incumbents will be added to the Frontline program as new maps are drawn across the country and candidate recruitment takes shape. For now, the DCCC hasn’t put Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) or Dave Loebsack (IA-02) on the vulnerable incumbents’ list, but either could be adversely affected by Iowa’s new four-district map. In 2010 Braley won by the narrowest margin of all the Iowans in Congress, 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent, perhaps with an assist from third-party candidates. Loebsack’s margin of victory, 51 percent to 46 percent, was barely more than Boswell’s 50.8 percent to 46.6 percent win, even though Loebsack’s district had a six-point stronger Democratic lean than IA-03.

While many Iowa politics-watchers expect Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) to run in the newly drawn third district in 2012, he could end up facing Braley or even Loebsack (though that’s far less likely). Wherever he runs, House Speaker John Boehner’s “buddy” will almost surely have the financial backing of the NRCC.

Share any thoughts about the 2012 Congressional races in Iowa in this thread. Braley posted a diary here today about a bill he introduced to reduce the deficit, “end the unnecessary giveaways to Big Oil and provide incentives for renewable fuel producers to expand business and develop new technologies.” A couple of weeks ago, Braley and Latham tangled over legislation that might affect Iowa’s ethanol industry.

UPDATE: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign later this month at Roxanne Conlin’s home in Des Moines.

It’s been a while since the Bleeding Heartland community discussed a possible 2012 primary between Representative Leonard Boswell and Christie Vilsack. Everywhere I go in Polk County, Democrats are talking about this race, so I thought it’s time for a new thread on the subject.

Last week Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reported that Vilsack “has been meeting with top state labor leaders, party strategists and donors as she gauges support and maps out a potential House campaign.” A bunch of Iowa insiders and Vilsack loyalists told Isenstadt about the former first lady’s strengths as a candidate. She’s good on the stump, has high name recognition and could raise a lot of money quickly. She refused to comment for his article, but Boswell told Isenstadt that he has informed Vilsack “that he had no plans to retire and that he would run again in his Polk County political base.”

Most Polk County Democrats I’ve spoken to expect Vilsack to run against Boswell in the new third Congressional district rather than in the redrawn second district, likely to contain Vilsack’s hometown Mount Pleasant. I would be surprised to see her run against Dave Loebsack in IA-02, but it could happen if the new IA-03 has a strong Republican tilt (say, containing lots of counties to the south and west of Polk but not Democratic-leaning Story, Marshall and Jasper counties). In that case, a primary against Loebsack could be more appealing than a general election against Tom Latham. I don’t have a good sense of the activist base’s commitment to Loebsack in IA-02, so I hope Bleeding Heartland readers who live in the area will weigh in. I believe many activists in IA-03 are ready for a change and would support a new candidate in a primary against Boswell.

Vilsack would be a much tougher opponent for Boswell than Ed Fallon was in 2008. The entire Democratic establishment and most allied groups like organized labor supported Boswell against Fallon. Some Democratic activists thought Fallon was unelectable or refused to consider supporting him because he had endorsed Ralph Nader’s presidential campaign in 2000. In addition, Fallon was unable to match the incumbent in fundraising.

Christie Vilsack has none of Fallon’s baggage and should have no trouble raising enough money to make the race competitive. She may even raise more than Boswell, who had just $65,276 in his campaign account at the end of 2010. (No word on how much Boswell raised at his big campaign fundraiser last month, featuring Senator Tom Harkin.) Although Boswell has a good record on women’s issues, many activists would be excited about making Vilsack the first Iowa woman to go to Congress.

During the 2008 primary, Boswell’s campaign kept Fallon on the defensive, questioning his ethics and slamming his record on ethanol and meth. The Nader trump card was played again and again. Boswell is good at “winning ugly,” as he showed last year against Brad Zaun. But I don’t see how he goes hard negative against Vilsack in a primary. My sense is that would backfire.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? Who would have the edge in a Boswell-Vilsack primary? How bad would the IA-03 map have to be to send Vilsack running against Loebsack on more friendly Democratic turf?

UPDATE: On February 3 Boswell announced the hiring of Julie Stauch as his Iowa chief of staff, beginning in March. (Sally Bowzer recently retired from the position.) Stauch is a veteran Iowa political operative and managed Boswell’s 2002 re-election campaign. In 2004, she managed Lois Murphy’s unsuccessful challenge to a Republican Congressional incumbent in Pennsylvania. In 2006, she managed Mazie Hirono’s successful Congressional bid in Hawaii. Most recently, Stauch has been chief public affairs officer for Planned Parenthood of the Heartland.

FEBRUARY 4 UPDATE: Senator Harkin seems to be trying to discourage Vilsack:

“I don’t see that happening,” Harkin says. […]

“Look, I have great respect for Christie Vilsack. I’ve known [her] a long time,” Harkin says.  “Since I’m so heaviy into education, here’s someone who has been in education all her life, so I have a lot of respect for her and her abilities. She has a lot of talent and a lot of support in the state of Iowa, but I do not see a primary with her and Congressman Boswell.”

Representative Leonard Boswell told Roll Call this week that he will run for Congress again in 2012.

Rep. Leonard Boswell, the oldest member of Iowa’s House delegation by 14 years, was thought to be considering retirement, making it easier for the other Members. But Boswell told Roll Call he will seek re-election, saying that preparing to run in a not-yet-drawn district is no different from his previous races.

National Republicans have frequently targeted the Des Moines-area Democrat since he was elected to the House in 1996, one reason he is preparing early – Boswell declared on election night that he would be on the ballot in 2012.

Boswell is holding a campaign fundraiser in Des Moines tomorrow. If former First Lady Christie Vilsack or some other Democrat plans to challenge him in the 2012 primary, she or he should get cracking sooner rather than later. Almost the entire Iowa Democratic establishment supported Boswell against primary challenger Ed Fallon in 2008, but I believe liberal activists are no longer the only ones who would prefer a different Democrat on the ballot in Iowa’s third district.

I expect Representative Tom Latham to be the Republican nominee in the new IA-03, and that campaign will be quite different from Boswell’s 2010 race against Brad Zaun. Latham is a nine-term incumbent and House Appropriations subcommittee chairman. He will have a ton of money in his own war chest, plus the full faith and credit of the National Republican Congressional Committee. House Speaker John Boehner has been one of Latham’s best friends for many years. In fact, I suspect the desire to keep the GOP field clear for Latham was one reason the NRCC never got behind Zaun last year. Latham would reasonably want to avoid a Republican primary against an incumbent with a Polk County base.

Incidentally, Roll Call says it’s “unclear from where Vilsack would run,” since she is from Mount Pleasant, which is in Loebsack’s district. I seriously doubt she would challenge Loebsack in an IA-02 primary. She has lived in Des Moines for more than a decade and works for a Des Moines-based non-profit organization.

Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack has strongly hinted to local and Washington-based journalists that she is considering a run for Congress, perhaps as early as 2012. Vilsack lives in Polk County, which will remain the population center of the redrawn third Congressional district. Meanwhile, Representative Leonard Boswell has shown no interest in stepping aside for Vilsack. He told a reporter in August,

“Christie [Vilsack] is a smart person. I’m planning on doing this for a while, so I hope that she has got other things she likes to do for a while because I’m going to continue to do this.”

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack did nothing to discourage the rumors when asked last week about his wife running for Congress in 2012:

Christie has extraordinary options. She is well respected and she has devoted most of her life to public service in one form or another and I think she has many options ahead of her. These are decisions that she has to make and I will support her whatever her decisions are.

Meanwhile, many central Iowa Democrats (including myself) received an invitation this week for a Boswell fundraiser on January 7 in Des Moines. Senator Tom Harkin is headlining the event, and since it’s scheduled a week into the 2012 election cycle, maxed-out donors from 2010 will be able to contribute. It’s possible that Boswell has debt to retire from his hard-fought campaign against Brad Zaun, but I agree with Civic Skinny that it looks more like a sign Boswell isn’t afraid of Vilsack in 2012.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? Would Christie Vilsack run for Congress even if Boswell doesn’t retire, and if so, who would win the Democratic primary? Also share any thoughts about who would stand better chance against Republican Tom Latham. I expect Latham to run in IA-03 even if the new district doesn’t include Story County. Latham won’t want to roll the dice on a Republican primary against Steve King in the new IA-04.

P.S. Last month I pondered whether Boswell might have lost if he had faced Jim Gibbons rather than Brad Zaun. One big question mark was whether Boswell would have had enough negative material to “win ugly” against Gibbons. This week Civic Skinny published some unflattering background on Gibbons that surely would have come out if he’d been Boswell’s opponent. Excerpts are after the jump.

Former Republican Governor Bob Ray is co-chairing a new group that will urge Iowans to retain three Supreme Court justices who are on the ballot:

The group, Fair Courts for US, plans to stage a direct mail and media advertising campaign as part of a statewide grassroots answer to several conservative advocacy groups that are urging Iowans to vote against retention of Chief Justice Marsha Ternus as well as Justices Michael Streit and David Baker.

Three of the four co-chairs are prominent Republicans: Ray, who was governor from 1969 to 1983, Art Neu, who was lieutenant governor from 1973 to 1979, and Sioux City attorney Dan Moore, a past-president of the Iowa State Bar Association and former secretary and treasurer of Bob Vander Plaats’ gubernatorial campaign. The fourth co-chair is Democrat Christie Vilsack, who was first lady from 1999 to 2007.

[Moore] said there are other avenues available to those who disagree with a court decision, such as appealing to a higher court or amending the state constitution, rather than targeting a judge or justice up for retention based just on one decision.

“The courts are accountable to the constitution and to the rule of law and not politicians. It’s not a popularity contest that’s run here,” Moore said. “(In) our system of justice, courts must look at the facts. They must apply the laws and make a determination for an outcome of a case. Our citizens deserve the very best courts that they can have access to and that’s what they have today.” […]

“Our system is far and away superior to those states where judges are elected every four years. That’s why Fair Courts For Us is urging Iowans to take a stand and vote ‘yes’ to retain the justices and preserve our system of jurisprudence,” Ray said.

I wish this effort every success, but I don’t know how much grassroots work can be accomplished with less than three weeks left before the election. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, nearly 250,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots as of October 14, and nearly 120,000 ballots had already been returned.

I hope Fair Courts for Us has television and radio commercials featuring Ray ready to launch as soon as possible. Ray commands tremendous respect among Iowans who remember him as governor, and older Iowans are least likely to support the Supreme Court’s Varnum v Brien decision on marriage. Backers of the Iowa for Freedom effort to oust the judges have been advertising statewide for a month already and have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the campaign.

Two other groups are trying to educate the public about the benefits of Iowa’s current judicial system: the Justice, Not Politics coalition and Iowan for Fair & Impartial Courts. However, those advocates are not explicitly urging Iowans to vote yes on retaining Ternus, Streit and Baker.

UPDATE: Fair Courts for Us started running this 60-second radio commercial in seven major Iowa markets on October 15. My transcript:

Sound of football game, tackle, referee’s whistle, sports announcer’s voice: And the flags are flying. Looks like a questionable call.

Referee’s voice: Unnecessary roughness.

Sports announcer: I think we’re gonna see some fans calling for these refs’ jobs.

Bob Ray: Listen, we’ll never agree with every call, but you shouldn’t fire the good referees over just one call. The same is true for the Iowa Supreme Court. I’m Bob Ray, a Republican and former Iowa governor. The Iowa Supreme Court has been making solid judgments over the years. The court protected Iowa families by requiring convicted sex offenders to live at least 2,000 feet away from a school or child care center, protected Iowa seniors, and protected our individual property rights. Please join me, Bob Ray, in turning over the ballot and voting yes, yes, and yes to retain the Iowa Supreme Court. There’s enough politics out there. We don’t need it in our courts.

Announcer: Paid for by Fair Courts for Us.

I wouldn’t have picked Iowa’s ineffective sex-offender residency restrictions as the best example of how the Supreme Court has worked for Iowans. This law clusters sex offenders in a few areas, and “many of those who work most closely with sex offenders and say restrictions are not working and public safety would benefit from change.” That’s not to say the Supreme Court’s decision on this law was incorrect (similar laws have been upheld in other states), but Iowans weren’t “protected” by the law.

In any event, this commercial is obviously targeting a conservative audience who might be inclined to vote against the judges, as well as senior citizens who probably remember Ray as governor.  

Coming off its worst week yet, Brad Zaun’s campaign is hyping a new poll showing him leading seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell by 51 percent to 41 percent in Iowa’s third district. The poll was commissioned by former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman’s American Action Forum, and taken by Republican pollster Ayres, McHenry & Associates. The poll was in the field from August 16 through 18, before a cascade of bad news for Zaun hit central Iowa newspapers, radio and television stations, and that’s not even the biggest problem with poll.

More details on the new Republican poll, as well as a preview of a Boswell campaign argument against Zaun, are after the jump.

Catching up on some news from last week, I see former First Lady Christie Vilsack not so subtly suggested that Leonard Boswell should be ready to step down from Congress in 2012:

Vilsack said during an interview at the Iowa State Fair that she is considering “other options” like running for congress.

“I just turned 60, so timing is important – political timing as well as personal timing,” she said.  “It’ll be a whole new ballgame after the election and after redistricting, where we see the districts line up.” […]

“Nobody will actually have a claim on any particular district, I think, because it’ll be a whole new set of voters and a whole new set of constituents,” she said.

The next day, Boswell indicated that he’s not going anywhere:

“Christie [Vilsack] is a smart person. I’m planning on doing this for a while, so I hope that she has got other things she likes to do for a while because I’m going to continue to do this,” Boswell said last week at the Iowa State Fair.

A reporter followed up with this question: “Does that mean you’re announcing for 2012?”

Boswell replied: “Well, it’s not far from it.”

I recognize that politicians can’t control the questions journalists ask them, but this isn’t a conversation Iowa Democrats should have now. Even if Boswell were planning to retire in the next cycle, no incumbent seeking re-election would declare himself a lame duck at this stage.

After Iowa redraws the lines for four Congressional districts, the new third district, including Polk County, is likely to be the state’s most competitive. I would prefer to see a new Democrat nominated in 2012, and Vilsack would be a strong candidate in many ways. But let’s focus on re-electing Boswell this November. I think he will defeat Republican Brad Zaun, who has nothing new to say and sounds out of his depth when explaining his about-face on biofuels subsidies. That said, the Cook Political Report and Swing State Project recently moved this race from “leans Democrat” to “tossup.” The Rothenberg Political Report still sees IA-03 as a “lean Democrat” contest.

Jonathan Martin of the Politico made a splash in the blogosphere with this piece on former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack. She told Martin that she’s “really interested” in running for office someday:

She added: “I think I have all the ingredients, it’s really a matter of timing.”

When she’ll run-and what office she’ll pursue-is less certain, though Vilsack did drop some hints.

The former Iowa First Lady indicated she’d like to mount a campaign as soon as 2012.

“Everything will look different after this election when the state’s redistricted,” Vilsack said.

As for what she’ll run for, she suggested a congressional bid.

“I have more of a legislative personality,” she said.

Many central Iowa Democrats expect Vilsack to run for Congress in the redrawn third district in 2012. If Leonard Boswell wins an eighth term this November, he could easily retire before the next election. Democrats will certainly need a new candidate in IA-03 for the next cycle if Brad Zaun beats Boswell this year.

Ever since Vilsack became involved with the Iowa Initiative to Reduce Unintended Pregnancies (as opposed to Planned Parenthood, a more polarizing organization), I’ve assumed she would become a candidate someday. When Vilsack ruled out challenging Senator Chuck Grassley last fall, she indicated that she would consider a run for office.

Vilsack told Martin, “I want to make a wise choice because I’m very competitive. If I’m going to run, I’m not just going to run to run – I’m going to run to win.” She might not clear the field for a Democratic primary in IA-03, but she would have an excellent chance of winning the nomination. As first lady, she was quite popular, so her chances in a general election would probably be strong, depending on the makeup of the district. Few Iowa Democrats could go into their first campaign with her level of name recognition.

Some Democrats consider Vilsack a possible U.S. Senate candidate if Tom Harkin retires in 2014 or Grassley retires in 2016. My hunch is that Representative Bruce Braley or former Governor Tom Vilsack would be more likely Democratic candidates for a statewide race.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

With only five days left before the Iowa primaries on June 8, many candidates have a busy weekend ahead. Event details are after the jump. Please post a comment or send an e-mail to desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com if you want to suggest an event for this calendar. Iowa Democratic candidates, please add me to your list for press announcements so that I can include your public appearances and fundraisers on these calendars. Also, let me know where you are having your election night parties if you would like me to add them to this post.

Although most of the competitive primaries this year are on the Republican side, please remind your friends and family to vote in the June 8 election. Democrats across the state have a choice to make in the U.S. Senate race between Roxanne Conlin, Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause. Democrats in 32 counties (the fifth Congressional district) will select either Matt Campbell or Mike Denklau to face Representative Steve “10 Worst” King. A few state legislative districts have multiple Democrats running too. County auditors’ offices are open for early voting today, tomorrow, Saturday and Monday.

Stay tuned for a Bleeding Heartland primary election prediction contest. I’ll post more details soon. As usual, no prizes will be awarded, but the winner gets bragging rights.

Most of our Democratic incumbents and challengers are out knocking on doors every weekend and often during the week. Please consider getting involved in an Iowa House or Senate race near you. Candidates for the state legislature can always use volunteer help, and summer parades and county fairs are not far off.

Today the Democratic Activist Women’s Network announced the winners of awards they will present on at their Women’s Appreciation Day Reception on March 8:

Award winners include Andrea Jansa, Des Moines (Rising Star Award); Rachael Grimes, McCallsburg (Special Recognition Award); Clara Oleson, West Branch (Activist Award); Peggy Huppert, Des Moines (Lifetime Achievement Award); and State Senator Amanda Ragan, Mason City (Elected Official Award).

During the reception, DAWN’s List will also honor Lynda Waddington for her volunteer efforts in 2009 and will recognize Roxanne Conlin, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, for her many years of service to DAWN-supported issues.

Guest speaker at the reception will be Christie Vilsack, Executive Director of the Iowa Initiative and former Iowa First Lady.  The reception will be held from 6:00-8:00 p.m. at the Grand Piano Bistro, 506 E. Grand Avenue, Des Moines.

Congratulations to all the award winners. Many Bleeding Heartland readers will recognize Lynda Waddington’s name as the founder of the Essential Estrogen blog and a frequent contributor to Iowa Independent. She’s one of my favorite reads.

Andrea Jansa is an assistant to Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Not only is Amanda Ragan a good legislator, she managed to win her first election to the Iowa Senate in 2002, which was a tough political environment for Democrats.

Peggy Huppert has worked for and volunteered for many non-profit organizations. Some of you may remember her work as executive director of the Sensible Priorities Campaign before the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

If you want to buy tickets for the March 8 event, check the DAWN’s List website or send an e-mail to dawniowa AT gmail.com. DAWN’s list supports the election of pro-choice Democratic women candidates in Iowa.

The top story at The Iowa Republican blog today suggests that seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell may be retiring. The so-called evidence is a poll in the field in Iowa’s third Congressional district:

The poll asked how likely they were to vote, whether or not the respondent was Republican or Democrat, and how they would rate the performance of President of Obama and Congressman Boswell. The poll also asked a series of questions about the favorability/unfavorability of a number of well known Iowa Democrats.

Those surveyed included questions about President Obama, Congressman Leonard Boswell, former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, State Representative Geri Huser, and Des Moines Area Community College President Rob Denson. Respondents were also read brief bios of Boswell, Vilsack, and Huser and then asked if they were more/less likely to support them.

Jane Slusark of Boswell’s office told me emphatically today that Boswell “is running for re-election” in 2010. His “campaign is active,” and they are already raising money for the race. Over at Campaign Diaries, Taniel noted that Boswell raised more in the fourth quarter of 2009 than he did in the last three months of 2007. I signed nominating papers for Boswell at the off-year caucuses on January 23. If he were retiring, I don’t think he would leave Iowa Democrats so little time before the March filing deadline to organize a campaign.

But Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican claims there is “rampant” speculation that the Democratic National Committee is behind the current poll. He adds, “If the DNC is polling the favorable and unfavorable of potential Boswell replacements, it is likely that Leonard Boswell may have already made his decision to retire.”

I haven’t heard anything about the poll in the field, but it seems illogical for the DNC to poll Geri Huser and Rob Denson as possible replacements for Boswell while leaving out other likely Democratic candidates such as Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson and various state legislators.

It sounds to me like someone close to either Huser or Denson might have commissioned that poll to see how they would stack up against Christie Vilsack. The former first lady is widely expected to run for Congress in 2012 or whenever IA-03 opens up. Huser may not enjoy life in the Iowa House as much now that she’s no longer chairing the Transportation Committee. I wouldn’t support Huser in a Democratic primary, and I doubt that any member of the “six-pack” would win a Democratic primary, but I wouldn’t mind seeing her run for Congress if it gives us a chance to elect a better Democrat from Iowa House district 42.

I encourage Bleeding Heartland readers who have received this survey to post a comment in this thread or e-mail me confidentially: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. If you get the call, please try to take notes on the questions, ask what organization is conducting the survey, and write down the phone number they give you at the end.

Following up on my review of news from the first half of last year, I’ve posted links to Bleeding Heartland’s coverage of Iowa politics from July through December 2009 after the jump.

Hot topics on this blog during the second half of the year included the governor’s race, the special election in Iowa House district 90, candidates announcing plans to run for the state legislature next year, the growing number of Republicans ready to challenge Representative Leonard Boswell, state budget constraints, and a scandal involving the tax credit for film-making.

I expected 2009 to be a relatively quiet year in Iowa politics, but was I ever wrong.

The governor’s race heated up, state revenues melted down, key bills lived and died during the legislative session, and the Iowa Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Varnum v Brien became one of this state’s major events of the decade.

After the jump I’ve posted links to Bleeding Heartland’s coverage of Iowa politics from January through June 2009. Any comments about the year that passed are welcome in this thread.

Although I wrote a lot of posts last year, there were many important stories I didn’t manage to cover. I recommend reading Iowa Independent’s compilation of “Iowa’s most overlooked and under reported stories of 2009,” as well as that blog’s review of “stories that will continue to impact Iowa in 2010.”

Former First Lady Christie Vilsack released a statement today confirming that she will not challenge Senator Chuck Grassley next year. Excerpt:

Commiting to a campaign for the US Senate next year requires more than the confidence that I have the right experience, the necessary support and the resources to be successful. It must come with an understanding that it is the best way for me serve our State and my fellow Iowans in the most effective way possible at this time. I have decided not to run for the United States Senate in 2010. I will continue my work with the Iowa Initiative to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy and will be active in our Party and across the state in issues that affect the quality of life for all Iowans. […]

While I will not be a candidate for office in 2010, never doubt I am committed to a life of service and to Iowa.

So, the mystery challenger Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan promised for Grassley is almost certainly Roxanne Conlin, who has said she’s leaning toward running.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see former Governor Tom Vilsack run for the U.S. Senate in the future. I expect Christie Vilsack to run for Congress when Leonard Boswell’s seat (IA-03) becomes open.

Speaking of Boswell’s district, I saw at Iowa Independent that CQ Politics is calling it a “safe Democratic” seat in the House.

According to Bleeding Heartland user mirage, State Senator Brad Zaun is planning to run against Boswell next year. (I am trying to confirm that rumor.) Zaun was mayor of Urbandale, a heavily Republican suburb of Des Moines, before getting elected to represent Iowa Senate district 32 in 2004. He was re-elected to a four-year term in 2008, so he wouldn’t risk losing his seat in the upper chamber by running against Boswell.

UPDATE: Kiernan approached Conlin way back in January about running against Grassley.

A new Iowa poll confirms that Terry Branstad is the toughest challenger for Chet Culver and that next year’s U.S. Senate race could become competitive. Research 2000 surveyed 600 “likely voters who vote regularly in state elections.” The poll was in the field from October 12 through 14, and you’ll find full results and crosstabs here.

Republicans may dismiss this as a “Democratic poll” because it was commissioned by the Daily Kos blog. However, Research 2000 is not a partisan firm, and the sample for this poll included 32 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 37 percent independents. That’s a smaller advantage for Democrats than the current Iowa voter registration numbers reflect. The proportion of independents in the sample might be a bit high for an off-year election, but that doesn’t necessarily skew against the Republican candidates.

I’ll highlight some of the key findings after the jump.

“Sources close to [former Governor Terry] Branstad” tell WHO-TV’s Dave Price that Branstad will announce his candidacy for a fifth term as governor this Friday. Whatever the date, it’s obvious Branstad has committed to the race.

Join me after the jump for recent news and unintentional comedy from the Branstad camp. You’ll also find a Bleeding Heartland reader poll at the bottom of this post.

The Senate Finance Committee approved its health care reform bill on a 14-9 vote yesterday, with all Democrats and Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine voting in favor. Ranking Republican Chuck Grassley, a key member of the committee’s “gang of six” negotiators this summer, joined the rest of the Republicans in voting against the bill. Speaking to the Des Moines Register Grassley “said he has no regrets about working with majority Democrats on the committee, only to oppose the bill. Given more time, he might have struck a deal, he said.”

This guy is the perfect picture of a bad-faith negotiator. From the Register:

Grassley said he objects most to provisions in the bill that would require Americans to obtain health insurance. But Grassley also said the bill does too little to block federal money being spent to provide abortions and provide coverage for illegal immigrants.

“Those aren’t the only things, but I think they are the most controversial or the most difficult to deal with,” Grassley told The Des Moines Register.

As Jason Hancock reported for the Iowa Independent last week, Grassley publicly supported the idea of an individual mandate to purchase health insurance this summer. I agree that requiring individuals to purchase insurance is problematic if there is no broad-based public health insurance option (because then the government is just subsidizing private insurers), but of course Grassley opposed the public option too.

In addition, the “gang of six” made changes in the bill before markup to address groundless Republican claims about illegal immigrants. According to PolitiFact, the “Baucus plan explicitly states that no federal funds – whether through tax credits or cost-sharing credits – could be used to pay for abortions (again, except for rape, incest, or the life of the mother).”

Trying to cut deals with Grassley is a waste of time. For more on that point, check out the skipper’s recent diary.

Speaking of Grassley, Cityview’s Civic Skinny thinks he should be worried about a potential race against attorney Roxanne Conlin. When a reporter asked Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack whether his wife, Christie Vilsack, might run against Grassley, he replied, “You should ask her about that.” (UPDATE: Dave Price did ask her and wonders whether she is the mystery candidate.)

As for the health care bill, the Finance Committee and HELP Committee versions have to be merged before a floor vote. It’s imperative that a public option be included in the version sent to the floor, and HELP Committee representative Chris Dodd says he will fight for that. On the other hand, Snowe and a few Democrats, like Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, might vote against the bill on the floor if it contains a public option. Chris Bowers wrote more at Open Left about the merging process in the House and Senate.

Via the Senate Guru blog I saw that Survey USA released results from its late September poll of 600 adults in Iowa (margin of error 4.1 percent). The survey measured Senator Chuck Grassley’s approval rating at 50 percent. That’s the lowest figure ever for Grassley by this pollster, and you can see from this graph that Grassley’s trendlines are ugly. A full 40 percent of respondents disapprove of Grassley’s performance. His high-profile role in the health care reform debate seems to have hurt his image. Senate Guru notes, “Grassley is also below 50% approval among independents (48%) and self-described moderates (47%).”

The Des Moines Register published a new article Monday on rumors that a well-known and well-funded Democrat will give Grassley “the race of his life.” Speculation seems to be centering on former First Lady Christie Vilsack, who is now executive director of the Iowa Initiative, and prominent attorney Roxanne Conlin, a onetime U.S. Attorney who was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1982.

Other notable findings from Survey USA in September: Senator Tom Harkin is at 44 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval. President Barack Obama’s approve/disapprove numbers in Iowa are now 46/48, but there is a huge gender gap. Among male respondents, 39 percent approve of Obama and 56 disapprove. Among female respondents, 53 percent approve and only 40 percent disapprove.

I was surprised to see that Survey USA didn’t find nearly as much of a gender gap concerning Governor Chet Culver. Culver’s at 41 percent approve/48 percent disapprove overall. Among men and women, 41 percent approve of Culver’s performance. The difference is that 55 percent of men said they disapprove of Culver, versus only 44 percent of women (a full 15 percent of female respondents answered “not sure”). If I were running Culver’s re-election campaign, I would put a high priority on building support among women voters. If a well-known woman makes a serious run at Grassley, that should help boost turnout among women Democrats and leaners.

Incidentally, Swing State Project changed its rating on the Iowa governor’s race from “race to watch” (but safe for the incumbent) to “likely D.” They may revise that rating again if former Governor Terry Branstad enters the campaign.

Survey USA’s Iowa sample in September consisted of 35 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. The sample for their August Iowa poll was quite different: 28 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans, and 35 percent independents. That alone could explain why Grassley’s approval rating fell from August to September, while Culver’s rose a bit from his all-time Survey USA low in August.

It’s obviously way too early to predict what proportion of Democrats and Republicans will turn out to vote in Iowa next November. The GOP primary for governor could energize that party’s base or cause lasting divisions. The Democratic base may or may not be excited, depending on what Culver and state legislators accomplish next session and whether Grassley’s race becomes competitive.  Unemployment seems likely to keep rising.  

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan spoke confidently today about a “first-round draft pick” who is ready to run against Senator Chuck Grassley, Kay Henderson reported for Radio Iowa.

“I’m going to tell you here today that Chuck Grassley is going to be in for the race of his life.” […]

“You’re just going to have to wait to find out,” Kiernan said this morning during taping of this weekend’s “Iowa Press” program.  “We want to wait ’til, obviously, after Terry Branstad announced his candidacy for governor.”

Kiernan isn’t revealing the characteristics this phantom candidate may have either. “I’ll just wait for the announcement,” Kiernan said.  “You will be impressed.” […]

“I’m here to tell you today that it will be the toughest race that Chuck Grassley has faced since John Culver,” Kiernan said.

Grassley defeated Senator John Culver (Governor Chet Culver’s father) in the 1980 Reagan landslide.

Speaking to reporters after today’s taping, Kiernan said the big-name challenger is “100 percent committed” to this race.

Your guess is as good as mine. A retired politician? Christie Vilsack? A celebrity in a non-political field? Someone from the business world? (Retired Principal Financial Group CEO Barry Griswell has ruled out running, as has Fred Hubbell, the incoming interim director of the Iowa Department of Economic Development.)

Grassley’s approval rating has fallen this year, but it’ll take a lot to convince me that we can defeat him. He’s still got a strong brand name and 30 years of constituent service behind him.

Senator Chuck Grassley already has two likely Democratic opponents (Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen), but rumors persist that a better-known Iowa Democrat is thinking seriously about this race.

I still don’t buy the rumors that Representative Bruce Braley will take on this challenge, even though Braley sharply criticized Grassley in a guest piece for the Huffington Post on Friday. With Grassley’s approval ratings still outside the danger zone for an incumbent, I would hate to see Braley give up a safe House seat and a good committee assignment to run in 2010. He is young enough to wait until either Grassley or Harkin retires.

Whether or not Braley intends to run for Senate next year, he could raise his profile and support by promising to work as hard to keep a strong public option in the health care reform bill as Grassley is working to keep one out. (Progressive activists have now raised nearly $400,000 for House Democrats who promise not to vote for any health care bill lacking a strong public option.) A joint statement on behalf of Braley’s Populist Caucus would do even more to bolster Braley’s reputation as a fighter for a strong health care reform bill.

Other names being floated on various blogs include former first lady Christie Vilsack, Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge, Attorney General Tom Miller, and Mike Blouin, a former member of Congress who headed the state Department of Economic Development when Tom Vilsack was governor. Blouin narrowly lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Chet Culver, so he has recent experience campaigning statewide. On several issues Blouin and I are as far apart as any two Democrats could be, but I thought displacedyankdem made a strong case for him:

Even if he’s not in the very highest tier of candidates (Vilsack, Miller, and Braley), he is:

a)several tiers higher than Grassley’s past 3 opponents

b)likely to automatically get at least 35% and likely 40% of the vote (somewhere between 7 and 12 points higher than the last 3)

c)a strong enough candidate to take advantage if there is a Macaca moment a la Jim Webb 2006

d)likely to tie down millions of dollars in GOP money

e)risk free in that he’s not giving up an office

f)just young enough to be on the edge of viability (maybe I’m making too much out of the seniority thing)

Since running against Grassley will be an uphill battle, I would like Democrats to nominate someone who doesn’t have to give up a current elected position.

On a related note, Grassley is still playing rope-a-dope with the White House, this morning backing down on his ridiculous comments about pulling the plug on grandma. I hope key people in the Obama administration finally understand that nothing is to be gained by seeking a compromise with Grassley. The Senate Finance Committee “gang of six” is taking two weeks off from negotiating, probably because delays help Republican efforts to defeat health care reform.

Share any thoughts about Grassley or the 2010 Senate race in this thread.

The good news is, the Iowa Democratic Party’s Hall of Fame event on Saturday night raised close to $200,000, twice as much as the Republican Party of Iowa brought in with last Thursday’s “Night of the Rising Stars.” Even better, Democrats paid reasonable prices (starting at $35, I believe) for heavy hors d’oevres and a ticket to hear Tom Vilsack, Christie Vilsack and Sally Pederson. In contrast, Republicans paid $100 ($50 for those under 35) for Chex mix, a cash bar and Haley Barbour.

Now for the bad news, courtesy of Paul Deaton at Blog for Iowa:

Governor Culver bragged about the success of the event’s fund raising efforts, saying that more money had been raised this year than in any of the previous years of the Hall of Fame event. What Chet Culver does not understand is that it is false success when among the 2009 Hall of Fame Hosts are listed the powerful interests that stymie the efforts of the progressive movement to do what is right in Iowa and in Washington.

One asks what do Archer Daniels Midland, Monsanto, MidAmerican Energy, Planned Parenthood, the Iowa Medical PAC, Mediacom, the Iowa Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives, the Iowa Corn Growers Association and other political action committees, business associations and corporations want with their donation besides access and favorable attention to advance their agendas? The Iowa Democratic Party, despite statements made during the speeches, is far from being the grassroots party we need it to become. Grassroots activism, in my view, needs to eliminate the influence of the large, moneyed entities. A good place to start would be to cease accepting corporate sponsorship of party events. This seems unlikely in a Culver administration.

It’s normal for corporate interests to cozy up to the party in power, and why shouldn’t they? Look how well things turned out for the nursing home industry in Iowa this year.

I recognize the pressure Democrats are under to keep pace with Republican fundraising, but leaving big problems unaddressed for fear of offending business groups will not keep newly registered Democrats excited about voting and volunteering next year.

Looking further ahead, the corporate sponsors that made this weekend’s event a success may keep Culver from becoming the great governor he wants to be.

I don’t have an answer other than supporting individual Democratic candidates who stand for my beliefs and organizations working toward real campaign finance reform. If you have any better ideas, please post them in this thread.

There’s a lot going on in central Iowa this weekend. If you’ve never been to the Des Moines Arts Festival, head downtown to check it out. Bonus tip: If you love art, check out the “other art show” in the Varied Industries Building at the State Fairgrounds this weekend. You’re more likely to find art you can afford there. I go every year to buy note cards with art photography or reproductions of paintings. I also like to look at children’s clothing decorated by a batik artist (she also sells women’s clothes).

This is an unusually busy week in Iowa politics, considering that’s summer in a non-election year. Governor Chet Culver is taking a campaign train to several western Iowa locations today (Wednesday). Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour is headlining a Republican event on Thursday. The Iowa Democratic Party’s Hall of Fame awards ceremony is on Saturday.

If you attend any of these events, please post a comment or put up a diary afterwards.

Event details are after the jump.  

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack took a step toward undoing bad Bush administration policy on Thursday:

No logging or road project on tens of millions of forested acres will proceed without personal approval by the Agriculture Department’s secretary for at least a year while the Obama administration decides how to handle a controversial Clinton-era roadless rule, officials said today.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is signing a directive giving himself sole power to make decisions for one year on building roads and harvesting timber on nearly all of the areas covered by the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule. The directive can be renewed for an additional year, the department said. It covers roadless areas in Alaska but will not apply to those in Idaho, which wrote its own roadless area plan.

“This interim directive will provide consistency and clarity that will help protect our national forests until a long-term roadless policy reflecting President Obama’s commitment is developed,” Vilsack said in a statement.

Environmental-minded Democrats and non-profit organizations welcomed the news. The Washington Post and New York Times have more detail on what Vilsack’s directive means.

Many people don’t realize that the U.S. Forest Service is under the USDA’s jurisdiction. (This brief history explains that the original purpose of the service was “to provide quality water and timber for the Nation’s benefit.”) Vilsack had little prior experience in this area, because Iowa is not one of the 44 states containing a national forest and has has only a few state forests. (Click here for more information about where the 142 U.S. national forests are located.)

Although Vilsack’s latest directive will not affect Iowa directly, Iowans should be proud of our former governor’s step toward protecting some of our country’s most pristine natural areas.

By the way, the Iowa Democratic Party is honoring Secretary Vilsack, former First Lady Christie Vilsack and Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson at its Hall of Fame Awards Ceremony on June 27. Click here to reserve tickets. I’m looking forward to the event.

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Michael Kiernan announced on Thursday that the 10th annual Hall of Fame Reception and Award Ceremony will honor former Governor Tom Vilsack, former First Lady Christie Vilsack and former Lt. Governor and IDP Chair, Sally Pederson. The event will take place on Saturday, June 27, at Drake University’s Sheslow Auditorium in Des Moines. Click here to make a reservation to attend.

I was living overseas during the fall of 1998 and had just moved from one country in Europe to another, so I wasn’t following Iowa news closely. I remember filling out my absentee ballot without any hope that this Tom Vilsack, whoever he was, could beat Jim Ross Lightfoot. The last I’d heard, Lightfoot was way ahead in the polls, and no Democrat had been governor of Iowa since before I was born. I was dreading the prospect of the embarrassing Lightfoot becoming governor.

Whatever differences any Democrats had with Governor Vilsack, we can all agree that he ran a terrific campaign in 1998 and demonstrated during the next eight years that a Democrat could govern this state well.

Christie Vilsack’s intellect and compassion are obvious to everyone who’s had any contact with her, and she gained a reputation for being a better campaigner than her husband. She continues her public service, especially in the areas of literacy and preventing unintended pregnancies.

Sally Pederson did a tremendous job as lieutenant governor while raising a special-needs child. She and her husband, Jim Autry, have established a groundbreaking program at the University of Iowa for young adults with disabilities.

If you can, please help the Iowa Democratic Party honor these good people.

I’ll be making phone calls for Jerry Sullivan (Democratic candidate in House district 59) this weekend.

What are you doing to close the sale for Democrats on Tuesday?

Please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if I’ve left out any important events.

Saturday, November 1

The Tallgrass Bioneers conference continues in Grinnell.

For more information, please visit:

http://www.gotoplanb.net/bione…

(a link to google map and driving directions is at the top of the page)

To pre-register, visit:

http://gotoplanb.net/bioneersc…

Complete schedule:

http://www.gotoplanb.net/bione…

Leading Iowa Democrats are kicking off a three-day bus tour and caravan around the state:

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” BUS TOUR FEATURING SENATOR HARKIN AND GOVERNOR CULVER

AMES – 8:45 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, former Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Iowa State University

Memorial  Union – Cardinal Room

2229 Lincoln Way

Ames ,  Iowa

CARROLL – 11:00 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Moose Lodge

200 East 5th St

Carroll ,  Iowa

STORM LAKE – 1:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

805 Flindt Drive, Suite 2

Storm Lake ,  Iowa

FORT DODGE – 3:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Fort Dodge Public Library

424 Central Avenue

Fort Dodge ,  Iowa

ALGONA – 5:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Berte’s Back Nine

216 E. State Street

Algona ,  Iowa

MASON CITY – 7:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Chicago Dawg Restaurant

687 South Taft Avenue

Mason City ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

BOONE – 8:30 AM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

1327 S Marshall St

Boone ,  Iowa

INDEPENDENCE – 10:15 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

204 1st Street East

Independence ,  Iowa

TAMA – 10:45 AM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 West 3rd Street

Tama ,  Iowa

DENISON – 11:00 AM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 S. Linden St

Denison ,  Iowa

NEWTON – 12:30 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

207 1st Avenue West

Newton ,  Iowa

DECORAH – 1:00 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

421 West Water Street

Decorah, Iowa

KNOXVILLE – 2:15 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

206 East Robinson Street

Knoxville ,  Iowa

WAVERLY – 3:45 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

100 2nd Street, Southwest

Waverly, Iowa

LAMONI – 5:00 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 South Linden Street

Lamoni, Iowa

CHARLES CITY – 5:15 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

216 North Main Street

Charles City ,  Iowa

Sunday, November 2

It’s the last day of the Tallgrass Bioneers conference in Grinnell and the second day of Iowa Democrats’ bus tour and caravan:

WATERLOO – 11:45 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Jameson’s Irish Pub

310 East 4th Street

Waterloo ,  Iowa

DUBUQUE – 2:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Labor Temple

1610  Garfield

Dubuque ,  Iowa

CLINTON – 4:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Clinton Community College Auditorium

1000 Lincoln Boulevard

Clinton ,  Iowa

DAVENPORT/BETTENDORF – 5:30 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

United Steelworkers Local 105

880 Devils Glenn Road

Bettendorf ,  Iowa

CEDAR RAPIDS – 7:45 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Machinist Local  831

222 Prospect Place

Cedar Rapids ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

INDIANOLA – 11:15 AM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

602 North Jefferson Way

Indianola, Iowa

SPENCER – 11:45 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

600 Grand Avenue, 1st Floor (formerly Marcos Restaurant)

Spencer ,  Iowa

WAUKEE – 12:45 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, and 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

144 East Laurel Street

Waukee, Iowa

WINTERSET – 2:00 PM

Secretary of State Michael Mauro and 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald

Obama  Iowa Campaign for Change office

104 North 1st Avenue

Winterset ,  Iowa

LE MARS – 2:00 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

27 Central Avenue, Northwest

Le Mars, Iowa

SIOUX CITY – 3:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Mary Treglia Community House

900 Jennings Street

Sioux City ,  Iowa

MAQUOKETA – 5:30 PM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

124 West Platt Street

Maquoketa ,  Iowa

COUNCIL BLUFFS – 5:45 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler

McGinn Law Firm

25 Main Place, Suite 500

Council Bluffs ,  Iowa

CRESTON – 8:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

209 North Maple Street

Creston ,  Iowa

Monday, November 3

Did you remember to enter the Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest? You can’t win if you don’t play!

It’s the last day for early voting at your county auditor’s office.

It’s the final day of the Iowa Democrats’ bus tour and caravan:

IOWA CITY – 10:00 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Vito’s

118 East College Street

Iowa City ,  Iowa

BURLINGTON – 12:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Port of  Burlington

400  North Front Street

Burlington ,  Iowa

OTTUMWA – 2:30 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UFCW Hall

1305 East Mary Street

Ottumwa ,  Iowa

MARSHALLTOWN – 5:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UAW Hall

411 Iowa Avenue, West

Marshalltown ,  Iowa

DES MOINES – 9:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Leonard Boswell, Attorney General Tom Miller, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UAW Hall

411 Iowa Avenue, West

Marshalltown ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

TIPTON – 11:30 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

500 Cedar Street

Tipton, Iowa

MUSCATINE – 1:15 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Parks and Recreation Building

312 Iowa Avenue

Muscatine, Iowa

FORT MADISON – 3:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

819 Avenue G

Fort Madison, Iowa

FAIRFIELD – 5:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

108 West Palm Road

Fairfield ,  Iowa

If you’re in the Cedar Rapids area and are interested in global warming:

 CLIMATE  CHANGE IN  IOWA TOPIC OF NOV. 3  FORUM:

“The global climate is changing. We know that humans are responsible for a large portion of that change, which will have implications for Iowa.”

That is the central theme of a public forum set for Kirkwood Community College Monday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. Kirkwood and several other colleges and community groups will host a “Connections” program in Ballantyne Auditorium on the main Kirkwood campus.

The free forum will feature Dr. Jerald Schnoor of The University of Iowa, speaking on “Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa.”  Schnoor is the Allen S. Henry Chair and professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and co-director of the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research.

Tuesday, November 4

It’s not too late to contact your local Democratic field office or county party to volunteer for a shift on election day. There are many jobs to be done–you don’t have to work the phones or knock on doors.

Barack Obama’s rally in downtown Des Moines on Friday morning will grab most of the media attention, but there will be many, many rallies around Iowa this weekend.

Beginning on Saturday and continuing through Monday, Senator Tom Harkin and Governor Chet Culver will headline a 16-stop “Count on Us” bus tour, while top state officials and our candidates for Congress will headline a “Count on Us” caravan.

I’ve posted the full schedule after the jump. No matter where you live, you probably wouldn’t have to drive far to get to one of these events. Feel free to post a diary afterward to tell us how it went.