The Des Moines Register’s Friday edition includes the key findings from its first Iowa poll by Selzer & Co. on the 2014 U.S. Senate race. The top Democratic contender to replace Senator Tom Harkin would be former Governor Tom Vilsack, who has not expressed any interest in the campaign.

Representative Bruce Braley e-mailed supporters this morning to confirm that he is “setting up a committee to run for the U.S. Senate.” Excerpts from the e-mail are after the jump.

I’ve also enclosed below the latest news on Karl Rove’s effort to prevent unelectable Republican candidates from winning U.S. Senate primaries. Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace wants conservatives to try to “beat Karl Rove at his own game.”

The U.S. Postal Service announced plans today “to stop delivering and collecting letters and other first-class mail on Saturdays beginning Aug. 5, although packages will continue to be delivered.” The change is expected to save about $2 billion per year, far less than the service’s shortfall in recent years. Congress could remove a significant contributor to the Postal Service’s financial problems by rescinding a 2006 mandate to pre-fund health care benefits for future retirees. Republican leaders in the U.S. House oppose legislation to change that policy.

After the jump I’ve posted reaction to today’s news from Senator Chuck Grassley and Representatives Dave Loebsack and Bruce Braley. I am seeking comment from the other members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation and will update this post as needed. UPDATE: Added Senator Tom Harkin’s comments below.

Paul Singer and Gregory Korte published an interesting feature in USA Today about which members of Congress are gun owners.  

All signs point to Representative Bruce Braley running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014, so I thought I’d put up a new thread to discuss scenarios in the first Congressional district.

Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy plans to run in the Democratic primary for IA-01. I don’t think he’s as strong a candidate as either Senate President Pam Jochum or State Senator Liz Mathis would be, and it is long past time for Democrats to nominate a woman in an open seat that leans Democratic. The latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that IA-01 contains 167,987 active registered Democrats, 140,227 Republicans, and 196,078 no-party voters.

On the Republican side, I am seeking comment about a possible Congressional bid from both Ben Lange and Rod Blum. Both ran against Braley in 2012; Blum narrowly lost the primary. Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ran for IA-01 when it was last an open seat in 2006, but he has ruled out running for Congress next year as he tries to take back the Senate majority for the GOP. CORRECTION: Dix lives in Butler County, which used to be in IA-01 but is now in IA-04 under Iowa’s new map.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. A race between Blum and either Jochum or Murphy would be an all-Dubuque affair.

After a dismal performance by his political vehicles in 2012, the man once known as “Bush’s brain” is working to stop unelectable Republican candidates from winning GOP primaries in 2014. Jeff Zeleny reports in today’s New York Times that Karl Rove’s super-PAC American Crossroads is creating the “Conservative Victory Project.” One of Rove’s associates confirmed that stopping Representative Steve King from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa will be a priority.

Details and toplines from the first poll on the open IA-Sen race are below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. To get a conversation started, I posted a bunch of links about campaign finance after the jump, focusing on news related to Iowa’s 2014 contests for U.S. senator and governor.

At the end I included an old but “new to me” story about Ron Paul’s habit of double-billing travel expenses. What will his admirers in the Liberty movement say?

Representative Bruce Braley braved some pretty bad winter weather this morning to meet with Iowa House and Senate Democrats at the state capitol. I haven’t seen any details about his remarks, which were closed to the public and media. No doubt he is trying to gain early backing for a U.S. Senate candidacy. State Senator Steve Sodders posted on Facebook and twitter today, “Great morning speech today by Congressman Braley…I’m a supporter.” Sodders represents Iowa Senate district 36, which is part of the first Congressional district where Braley just won a fourth term in the U.S. House.

I’ll update this post later if any news leaks about the substance of Braley’s meetings today. My money’s on no serious Democratic primary opposition once he launches his Senate run. He told reporters that U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chair Michael Bennett have encouraged him to run for the seat Senator Tom Harkin is vacating.

About an hour ago, President Barack Obama finished speaking to a Nevada audience about basic principles for comprehensive immigration reform. Yesterday four Democratic and four Republican U.S. senators unveiled a framework for a new immigration reform bill. Links and details about those proposals are after the jump, along with recent comments about immigration by some of the Iowans in Congress. I will update this post as needed with further reaction.

Terrible news for Iowa Democrats: Senator Tom Harkin told Tom Beaumont of the Associated Press that he will retire rather than seek re-election in 2014. Not only will there be an open seat at the top of the ticket, the Iowa Democratic Party won’t be able to count on Harkin’s millions to fund a decent coordinated GOTV campaign in a midterm election year. Even if Democrats manage to win that statewide race while Governor Terry Branstad’s also on the ballot, we will lose an Iowan in charge of a powerful Senate committee. Incoming Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson has a difficult road ahead.

Representative Bruce Braley is likely to run for Harkin’s seat, and unless either Tom or Christie Vilsack is interested, the primary would probably be uncontested. The silver lining here is a chance to elect a woman to Congress in IA-01. Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum would be my first choice, but there are many capable Democratic women in those 20 counties.

An excerpt from Braley’s appearance on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” this weekend is after the jump. I’ll post further updates there. UPDATE: Much more is below, including the statement from Harkin’s office.

The U.S. House voted today to suspend the country’s debt ceiling until May 18 and withhold pay from U.S. senators if the upper chamber does not approve a budget by April 15. House Republican leaders didn’t have enough votes in the GOP caucus to pass the bill, but dozens of Democrats crossed over to delay a potential default by several months. Three of Iowa’s four House members supported the “No Budget, No Pay” act; details and comments are below.

Forty years ago today, the U.S. Supreme Court announced its decision in Roe v Wade. Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I’ve posted many links about abortion rights and availability below.  

What’s on your mind this long weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. I posted some links below to get a conversation going.

UPDATE: Scroll down for excerpts from the inaugural speech and some reaction from Iowa political figures.

The National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo today outlining a strategy to “stay on offense” during the 2014 electoral cycle. No Iowa district is among the top seven NRCC targets, but the districts currently represented by Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) are on the long list of 45 seats Republicans see a chance to pick up.

The U.S. House approved a Disaster Relief Appropriations Act primarily aimed at Hurricane Sandy victims tonight, but Iowans Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) were among the majority of House Republicans who voted against the bill.

UPDATE: Added King’s comment below.

Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register features a long story by Jennifer Jacobs about Representative Bruce Braley considering a run for governor in 2014.  

Barack Obama’s 2012 Iowa campaign manager Brad Anderson confirmed yesterday that he plans to run against Secretary of State Matt Schultz in 2014. I hope there will be a competitive Democratic primary, because from where I’m sitting, Anderson looks like the wrong candidate for this race.

UPDATE: Added details from Anderson’s formal announcement below, along with his campaign bio and a list of Democrats on his steering committee (including Senator Tom Harkin, former governors Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver, Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, and several former chairs of the Iowa Democratic Party). Looks like there will be no competitive primary.

Today the U.S. House easily approved the first phase of legislation designed to help those affected by Hurricane Sandy in October and November. The two-paragraph bill (pdf) will “temporarily increase [by $9.7 billion] the borrowing authority of the Federal Emergency Management Agency for carrying out the National Flood Insurance Program.”

All 193 Democrats present and 161 Republicans voted for the bill, but 67 Republicans voted against it (roll call). Iowa’s Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), Tom Latham (IA-03), and Steve King (IA-04) were all the yes column.

During the last Congress, I would have expected to see King among a group of several dozen hard-line conservatives defying GOP leaders, especially since the Club for Growth had warned Republicans to vote no (opposing government involvement in the insurance industry on principle). After the jump I’ve posted King’s statement explaining his vote. Maybe the Missouri River flooding in his district has increased his appreciation for the national flood insurance program. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him oppose the second Sandy relief bill next week, on the grounds that it contains too much pork. Alternatively, maybe he is more reluctant to defy House leaders from his new perch as a subcommittee chairman. I’m curious to see how his voting evolves in the new Congress.

The new U.S. House of Representatives convened yesterday and narrowly re-elected John Boehner speaker. He received 220 votes, needing 214 to be elected because a few House members were absent. The roll call shows that Iowa Republicans Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) voted for Boehner, while eight members of the GOP caucus voted for others and several did not vote. Latham and Boehner have been close friends and smoking buddies since Latham was first elected in the mid-1990s. King has sometimes been among the “tea party” dissenters within the GOP caucus, but most of that group (Michele Bachmann, for instance) fell behind Boehner yesterday. King will be a House Agriculture subcommittee chairman in the new Congress. Several of the Republicans who voted for other speaker candidates recently lost prime committee positions.

Boehner’s opponents were disorganized and couldn’t agree on a replacement as speaker.

Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) were among the 192 votes for Nancy Pelosi as speaker, but five Blue Dog Democrats voted for other candidates.

The new thing I learned this week is that the speaker of the House does not have to be a member of the House. One Democrat voted for Colin Powell, one Republican voted for Comptroller General David Walker, and two Republicans voted for outgoing Representative Allen West.

Members of Congress are in Washington today trying to make last-minute deals to avoid supposedly dire consequences on January 1. So far it appears likely that some kind of one-year extension of current farm policies will pass in order to avoid a huge price spike for milk and problems for agricultural producers. UPDATE: A nine-month farm bill extension was added to the fiscal cliff bill.

Lots of plans are floating around to deal with the so-called “fiscal cliff”: Bush income tax cuts (last extended for two years in December 2010) are set to expire, along with lower payroll tax and estate tax rates. Meanwhile, various budget cuts are due to go into effect in January, including a “sequester” of federal spending on defense and other programs but also lower Medicare payments to doctors. At this point, I would be surprised if we don’t go over the cliff, and I agree with Senator Tom Harkin that no deal is better than a bad deal.

I will update this post throughout the day and evening with news on Congressional voting. After the jump I’ve enclosed some links on the latest proposals floating around the Capitol. Tremendous hypocrisy is on display. If deficit hawks believed their own propaganda, they would embrace higher taxes and lower spending to solve this supposedly dire threat to the U.S. economy. UPDATE: More news is below.

The U.S. Senate voted today to extend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for five more years, allowing “electronic eavesdropping” without a warrant to continue in the U.S. and abroad. President Barack Obama (who at one time opposed the Bush administration’s warrantless wiretapping policy) will sign the bill sometime before the end of December 31. Follow me after the jump for details on the Senate voting, including how Democrat Tom Harkin and Republican Chuck Grassley voted on various amendments.

When the U.S. House approved this bill in September, four of the five Iowans voted yes: Democrats Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05). Democrat Bruce Braley (IA-01) was among 118 House members to oppose the bill.

Iowa’s five representatives all voted no intended to vote no as the U.S. House approved the conference committee report on the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act today. UPDATE: Steve King meant to vote no but mistakenly voted yes. Details below.

The Iowans split on party lines over a bill designed to replace the “sequester” scheduled for early next year with deep spending cuts in non-defense domestic programs.

Meanwhile, Republican leaders retreated from a planned vote on House Speaker John Boehner’s “Plan B” to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff” at the end of the calendar year.

Follow me after the jump for details on all of the above.

After reportedly ruling out an increase in the Medicare eligibility age, President Barack Obama has offered House Speaker John Boehner a new deal to avoid a combination of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to go into effect at year-end.

Obama’s latest offer involves painful Social Security cuts for the poor and middle class but tax increases only for people who won’t notice the difference, because they make more than $400,000 per year. This kind of bargain is exactly what Senator Tom Harkin has been warning against when he’s said “no deal is better than a bad deal.”  

The horrific mass killing at Sandy Hook elementary in Newtown, Connecticut has dominated news coverage since Friday, and almost everyone I know has been talking about the tragedy. But only a few Iowa politicians have publicly discussed the events or possible ways to prevent similar crimes.

Remarks by Senator Tom Harkin, Representative Dave Loebsack, State Senator Rob Hogg, and Governor Terry Branstad are after the jump. I’m disappointed but not surprised that the governor is not open to any new restrictions on assault weapons or large ammunition clips. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who like Branstad has an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association, today called for moving “beyond rhetoric” on gun control. His comments are also below.

I’ve sought comment from other members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation and will update this post if I hear back from any of them. UPDATE: Added Representative Bruce Braley’s comments below.

SECOND UPDATE: Added Senator Chuck Grassley’s comments during a December 17 radio interview.

LATER UPDATE: Added comments from Iowa Department of Education Director Jason Glass.

The U.S. House of Representatives took 40 minutes on the floor this morning to recognize Leonard Boswell’s public service during his military career, time in the Iowa Senate, and 16 years in Congress. Radio Iowa posted a link to the full audio from today’s proceedings. Republican Tom Latham, who defeated Boswell in IA-03 last month, opened the tribute with warm remarks about his colleague. He also read out comments sent by many Iowans, including Governor Terry Branstad and Ken Sagar of the Iowa Federation of Labor. Iowans can e-mail their own remarks to Boswell.Tribute@mail.house.gov today. Those e-mails will supposedly be part of the official Congressional record.

After the jump I’ve enclosed some excerpts from today’s speeches and public statements released about Boswell’s retirement. Any memories about Leonard Boswell are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added a touching story about Boswell below.

More than 20 years after the USSR collapsed, Congress has finally repealed the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment limiting trade with the Soviet Union and its successor states. The Russia and Moldova Jackson-Vanik Repeal Act of 2012 grants Russian permanent normal trade relations status. It passed the U.S. House by 365 votes to 43 last month and passed the Senate by 92 votes to 4 yesterday.

All seven Iowans in Congress voted for this bill, which should increase food and agriculture-related exports to Russia. The Obama administration and several business advocacy groups also supported the measure.

After the jump I’ve enclosed statements on this bill from Representative Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley.

This week the U.S. House and Senate both approved a bill to relax some federal energy regulations, including those on refrigerated display cases manufactured in Marshalltown.

UPDATE: President Barack Obama signed the bill on December 18.

The latest voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties are out, and I wanted to do one final update on the registration totals in each county, grouped by Congressional district. Statewide, Republicans had led Democrats in voter registrations since April, but that lead was almost gone by the beginning of November. Late GOTV and election-day registrants helped put Democrats a little ahead again. As of December 3, Iowa had 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters.

In the tables below, I also added vote totals for President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and the major-party Congressional candidates in each county, to show which candidates outpolled or underperformed their party’s presidential nominee. I’m not convinced that Christie Vilsack could have beaten Tom Latham in IA-03, but Leonard Boswell finished noticeably behind the president in this district, especially in Polk County.  

A few days ago, the final recounts ended in Iowa legislative races, and the last Congressional campaign was resolved. It’s time to reveal the winner of Bleeding Heartland’s general election prediction contest.

Now that almost all Iowa precincts have reported, I’ve enclosed more detailed results from the four Congressional races after the jump. All numbers come from this page on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.  

Shortly before election day 2010, Representative Bruce Braley and his staff were sweating it. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent significant funds to help Braley fend off a ton of attack ads funded by conservative groups. Braley defeated Ben Lange by just 4,209 votes. If not for Iowa Democrats’ early vote program and the presence of two minor-party candidates on the ballot, Lange might be in Congress today.

This year, Iowa’s first Congressional district looks far less competitive. A final review of Braley’s rematch against Lange is after the jump, including some fireworks from the candidates’ Iowa Public Television debate last week.  

To enter Bleeding Heartland’s election prediction contest, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).

Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of November 1 (pdf), Iowa had 694,558 active no-party voters statewide, 629,443 active Republicans, and 628,043 active Democrats. That’s the smallest GOP voter registration advantage since April.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about next Tuesday’s elections are welcome in this thread. Iowans can register to vote on election day by bringing photo identification and proof of residency (like a utility bill or bank statement) to their local precinct.

This thread is for any comments about Congressional races you are following, whether in Iowa or in other states. Steve King and Christie Vilsack held their seventh (!) debate tonight, but I was unable to listen, because Windsor Heights holds trick-or-treating the night before Halloween.

Democrats are starting to talk about a net gain of U.S. Senate seats, but I am not that optimistic. While some races are trending toward the Democratic candidates, others where Democrats led last month are tightening (Virginia, Wisconsin).

To me, the most amazing development in a Congressional race is President Bill Clinton campaigning for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and recording a television commercial for her. Bleeding Heartland readers who are old enough to remember 1990s politics, could you ever have believed that Bill Clinton would be considered an asset to a Democratic candidate in North Dakota a week before the election?  

Among the Iowans in Congress, Senator Tom Harkin has the strongest voting record on sustainable farming and food practices, according to the new National Food Policy Scorecard. Representative Steve King, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, and Representative Tom Latham had the lowest scores in the Iowa delegation.

Iowans have requested a record number of early ballots for the general election with more than a week left to vote by mail or early in person. As of October 24, 565,986 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election (545,739).  

Iowa Democrats have requested about 75,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in three of the four Congressional districts. On October 23, Republicans finally overtook Democrats in absentee ballot requests in IA-04, where the GOP’s voter registration advantage is more than 50,000.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Adrian Gray, a veteran of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign, has been commenting on early voting trends in various states on twitter. I disagree with some of his Iowa observations and explain why below.  

It’s time for another discussion thread on any competitive U.S. House and Senate races. More detailed posts about the four Iowa Congressional districts are in progress, but after the jump I’ve posted the latest information on independent expenditures for and against the major-party candidates. Bleeding Heartland covered the third-quarter financial reports for the Iowa Congressional candidates here. Early voting totals for each of the four Congressional districts are here.

I’ve also added a few links on U.S. Senate races around the country. I’m amazed that Democrats still appear to be favorites to hold a small Senate majority. For me that has been one of the most surprising political stories of the year. Republicans could still win a majority, but they would have to run the table in the tossup races.

Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).

Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).

Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.

The latest Federal Election Commission disclosure reports are out, covering money raised and spent by Congressional candidates between July 1 and September 30. Details from Iowa’s four races are after the jump, along with information on groups that have made independent expenditures in each of the districts. The latest voter registration totals in the Congressional districts are here, and I’m updating absentee ballot totals for each district on weekdays here.

Any comments about these campaigns are welcome in this thread. I’d be particularly grateful if some Bleeding Heartland reader could explain what Tom Latham has been saving his money for, and why the PAC of the Credit Union National Association is supporting both Latham in IA-03 and Christie Vilsack in IA-04.

It’s time to catch up on news from the first Congressional district campaign between three-term Democratic Representative Bruce Braley and his two-time Republican challenger Ben Lange. After the jump I’ve posted my take on yesterday’s debate on Iowa Public Radio, along with videos and transcripts of the latest television commercials by the campaigns and outside groups. (Bleeding Heartland covered earlier tv ads in the IA-01 race here, here, and here.)