Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum all lead President Barack Obama in the latest Iowa poll that Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register. The Register posted the toplines on its website Saturday evening. Paul leads Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, Santorum leads by 48 percent to 44 percent, and Romney leads by 46 percent to 44 percent. Obama crushes Newt Gingrich by 51 percent to 37 percent.

I’ll update this post tomorrow with additional details, to be published in the Sunday Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll of 611 likely voters (drawn from a sample of 800 Iowa adults) is accurate, Obama’s campaign has a lot of work to do here. Reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Iowa would be difficult for the president.

UPDATE: The exact wording of the election questions and results are here (pdf).

President Barack Obama released his draft budget for the 2013 fiscal year yesterday. Details on the president’s proposed spending and tax rates are after the jump, along with reaction from the Iowans in Congress and some of their challengers.  

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller announced yesterday “a landmark $25 billion national joint federal-state accord over mortgage foreclosure abuses and fraud, and unacceptable nationwide mortgage servicing practices.” My gut says this deal lets lenders off too easily and will do virtually nothing for most foreclosure fraud victims. A $2,000 check isn’t much for people who wrongfully lost their homes, and the amount earmarked for principal reductions would rescue only a tiny fraction of “underwater” borrowers.

I’ve posted five versions of the case for the agreement after the jump, along with five statements from critics of the deal. Miller’s press release includes details on what borrowers in Iowa could receive. Please share your perspective in the comments.

Colorado and Minnesota held caucuses today, while Missouri held a “beauty contest” primary (that state’s delegates will be determined by caucuses set for March 17). A few links on the Republican presidential race are after the jump, and I’ll be adding results as they come in. Tonight may be Rick Santorum’s best shot at becoming the “not Romney” flavor of the month.

Mitt Romney is offering Florida voters a “history lesson” about Newt Gingrich this weekend.

President Barack Obama hits the road today through Friday to promote proposals from last night’s State of the Union address. Cedar Rapids is the first stop on his itinerary, which also includes Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, and Detroit. All cities are in states Obama hopes to win or at least put in play this November.

Follow me after the jump for links on the president’s Cedar Rapids visit. I will update this post later with highlights and reaction.

President Barack Obama is making economic fairness a central theme of tonight’s State of the Union address. To bolster his proposals to increase tax rates on some forms of unearned income, billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s secretary will be one of First Lady Michelle Obama’s guests. A few excerpts from the prepared speech are after the jump, along with some White House “talking points” for allies. I’ll update this post later.

This thread is for any comments about the president’s speech or the Republican response, to be delivered by Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

UPDATE: Added the text of Daniels’ response below, along with some thoughts about the president’s speech and reaction from members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

This morning former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign released Romney’s 2010 tax return and some details on the “unemployed” candidate’s 2011 income. Some links and analysis are after the jump.

Last week, the U.S. House passed a resolution to disapprove President Barack Obama’s latest request to raise the debt limit. The mostly party-line vote was also mostly symbolic and consequently received little media attention. However, Republican challengers in Iowa’s first and second Congressional districts are likely to highlight this vote in their campaigns against Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack.

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign is running its first television commercial in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Follow me after the jump for the video and annotated transcript.

President Barack Obama announced today that his administration is rejecting the application for the Keystone XL Pipeline, which would take oil sands from Alberta, Canada to the Gulf Coast of the U.S. In a statement I’ve posted after the jump, the president blamed Congressional Republicans, who attached a “rushed and arbitrary deadline” for the Keystone decision to the temporary payroll tax cut extension bill in December.

Obama’s decision takes the pipeline off the table for now. House Republicans may look for ways to override the administration’s decision, but the Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to approve such legislation this year. However, all bets are off after the 2012 elections. TransCanada may resubmit its application after finding a different route through Nebraska.  

By this summer, I predict that “Keystone” will be a household word in the U.S., as Republicans and corporate-funded groups blame Obama’s decision for rising gasoline prices and continued high unemployment. Environmental groups that have opposed the pipeline have a huge public education task on their hands.

UPDATE: I’ve added Representative Steve King’s reaction after the jump.

The Iowa Democratic Party released complete precinct-level delegate results this afternoon. With 1,774 precincts reporting, 8,064 out of the 8,152 total county delegates elected statewide were for President Barack Obama. “Other” (uncommitted) elected 88 delegates across 18 counties. In terms of state delegate equivalents, there were 1181.03 Obama state delegates (98.42 percent) and 18.97 “other” state delegates (1.58 percent).

Click here to view all counties and statewide data. Click on each county’s name to view precinct-level delegate numbers. In case this page disappears like the IDP’s 2008 caucus results page did, I have posted details on all Iowa precincts electing “other” delegates after the jump.

In a few hours, I’ll go to my Democratic precinct caucus. I’ll bring party platform resolutions to submit, but my main goal for the evening will be to secure an uncommitted delegate to the county convention.

I want to send the message that President Barack Obama hasn’t stood up for core principles of the Democratic Party. He has repeatedly expressed his confidence in Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who never should have been appointed and has mismanaged funds that were supposed to help keep Americans in their homes. He shafted middle-class federal employees in order to craft an image as a deficit hawk, yet he proposed increases in the defense budget and allowed the Bush tax cuts to be extended at all income levels. He signed into law indefinite military detention authority that goes against our basic constitutional principles. He agreed to allow more offshore oil drilling without securing any GOP concessions on energy policy. He validated bogus conservative talking points about “job-killing” regulations by postponing EPA smog rules. Last summer, he treated Americans to the surreal picture of a Democratic president urging the Republican speaker of the House to join him in cutting Social Security and Medicare.

Democrats like me face long odds tonight, especially in Iowa’s most populous counties, Polk and Linn. Iowa Democratic Party caucus rules and the decisions of some county Democratic committees will make it extremely difficult for uncommitted caucus-goers to clear the viability threshold for electing delegates.

The Republican Iowa caucus results will be the big news story of January 3, but away from the spotlight, some Democrats who are dissatisfied with President Barack Obama’s leadership are seeking to elect uncommitted delegates at their own precinct caucuses. Political junkies who are following that story will be pleased to know that the Iowa Democratic Party has promised to release precinct-level delegate counts on caucus night.

It’s the least the party can do, given how the deck will be stacked against Democrats planning to caucus uncommitted.

Maybe “Organize, organize, organize and then get hot at the end” isn’t outdated Iowa caucus wisdom after all. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of Iowa Republicans finds Representative Ron Paul slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped to third place.

UPDATE: The Republican polling firm Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has also picked up on the Gingrich slide and Paul gain. Details are at the end of this post.

Both Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Tom Harkin voted Saturday morning for a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits.

The U.S. House and Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012 this week. I can’t say I’m surprised to learn that President Barack Obama backed off on his threat to veto the bill over provisions relating to alleged terrorist detainees. Follow me after the jump for details on the votes and comments from members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

Only ten Democrats in the U.S. House supported a bill approved last night to extend the payroll tax cut and some unemployment benefits. All three Iowa Democrats crossed party lines to vote for this legislation, which has drawn a rare veto threat from the White House.

UPDATE: Scroll down for Representative Dave Loebsack’s statement on this vote.

SECOND UPDATE: I’ve added a statement from Representative Steve King.

A year ago, former President George W. Bush’s income tax cuts for all brackets were due to expire on December 31. Republicans had President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats on the defensive, not wanting to be seen as raising taxes in a tough economy. Now the tables are turned as a payroll tax cut benefiting all wage earners will expire at the end of the year unless Congress acts otherwise. Democrats in Washington and around the country see this issue as a political winner.

Last week the U.S. Senate defeated two more proposals for extending the payroll tax cut. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Iowa Democratic Party used the controversy to create bad publicity for Representative Tom Latham (IA-04) and Representative Steve King (IA-05).

Some bills are designed to solve real problems, some bills are designed to create the appearance of solving real problems, and some bills are designed to solve non-existent problems. The U.S. House passed that third kind of bill yesterday, seeking to block rules the Environmental Protection Agency has not even proposed.

Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the 33 Democrats who voted with Republicans to pass the H.R. 1633, the Farm Dust Regulation Prevention Act of 2011. The Iowa Democrats weren’t all equally supportive during the floor debate, however.

U.S. Senate Republicans successfully filibustered President Barack Obama’s appointee to run the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau today. It was the second time this week that Senator Chuck Grassley and his GOP colleagues blocked a presidential nominee.

Without Congressional action, a temporary payroll tax cut intended to stimulate the economy will expire on December 31 of this year. Last week the Senate defeated two proposals to extend the tax cut; Iowa Senators Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin were on opposite sides of both votes.

Least surprising news bulletin of the year: the Congressional “super committee” failed to agree on a plan to reduce the U.S. deficit. Reaction from most of the Iowans in Congress is after the jump.

Democrat Liz Mathis has banked more early votes than Republican Cindy Golding for Tuesday’s special election in Iowa Senate district 18, and a survey by Public Policy Polling puts her narrowly ahead in the final days of the campaign.

President Barack Obama went to Las Vegas yesterday to unveil his administration’s latest proposal to help homeowners facing possible foreclosure. About a quarter of all U.S. homeowners are “underwater,” which means their homes are not worth as much as they owe on their mortgages. Nevada has an extremely high foreclosure rate and suffered one of the worst boom-bust cycles in the housing market. It’s also a swing state in presidential elections, which made it a perfect venue for Obama yesterday. I wish his team were putting as much effort into crafting a housing policy that would help people.

President Barack Obama announced yesterday that the last remaining U.S. troops in Iraq will leave that country by the end of 2011. All the Iowa Democrats in Congress welcomed the news and commended war veterans for their service. Senator Tom Harkin expressed regret only that the end to this “misguided” war “did not come sooner.” Representative Bruce Braley (IA-01) similarly described the war’s end as “long overdue.” Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) pledged to “closely monitor the safety of our troops” as they leave Iraq. Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) called for working “towards this end in Afghanistan as soon as possible.”

After the jump I’ve posted the president’s comments on the troop withdrawal as well as the full statements from Harkin, Braley, Loebsack and Boswell. I will update this post if I see comments from Republican Senator Chuck Grassley, Representative Tom Latham (IA-04) or Representative Steve King (IA-05).

Libyan forces captured and killed Colonel Moammar Gadhafi today in the former dictator’s hometown of Sirte. Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) welcomed news of the “victory for freedom-loving people” but added that “With Gadhafi out of the picture, it’s time for US involvement in Libya to end.” Braley has been an outspoken critic of the Obama administration’s open-ended intervention in Libya. He has voted against authorizing military action there and repeatedly demanded a cost accounting of our mission.

Representative Dave Loebsack (D, IA-02) reacted to today’s news with a statement calling on “international organizations to step forward and help the Libyan people” so that the U.S. can “focus on creating jobs here at home.” Loebsack sits on the House Armed Services Committee but has generally avoided commenting on the U.S. mission in Libya. In June, he voted against authorizing the intervention but also against defunding it.

The full statements from Braley and Loebsack are after the jump. I will update this post if other members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation comment on today’s events. UPDATE: Added reaction from Leonard Boswell (D, IA-03) and Steve King (R, IA-05). King and Boswell supported authorizing the Libya intervention. King was one of only five House members to vote against barring federal funding for U.S. ground troops in Libya.

SECOND UPDATE: Comments from Tom Latham (R, IA-04) and Senator Chuck Grassley are below.

Catching up on news from last week, the U.S. House approved a bill seeking to limit the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate how coal ash is used. Iowa Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in voting for the bill, although his votes on some key amendments suggested that he was not fully behind the legislation’s goals.

The Iowa Court of Appeals held a ceremony yesterday to mark Chief Judge Rosemary Sackett’s retirement after 28 years of service. Meanwhile, Senator Tom Harkin cleared the way this week for the first woman to be named U.S. District Court judge for Iowa’s southern district.

Iowa House and Senate members have plenty of work to do during the next legislative session, scheduled to begin in January 2012. Governor Terry Branstad wants to pass a big education reform package as well as commercial property tax cuts he wasn’t able to get through the legislature this year. Lawmakers also face a deadline for adopting a new system for funding and delivering mental health services. Disagreements over the state budget pushed the 2011 legislative session two months beyond its original adjournment date, and I doubt Democrats and Republicans will find it easier to agree on spending priorities in 2012. Election years aren’t typically the most productive times at the state capitol.  

As if there weren’t enough contentious issues on the table, the governor’s transportation advisory commission will urge legislators to approve an 8-cent to 10-cent gas tax increase.  

The U.S. House and Senate approved trade agreements with Columbia, Panama and South Korea yesterday. All Iowa Republicans supported each of the three deals, while Iowa Democrats voted against them. Links to roll calls and statements from most of the lawmakers are after the jump.

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey provides more evidence that former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain is gaining support among Republicans as Texas Governor Rick Perry and Representative Michele Bachmann lose ground.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney narrowly leads while former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain has surged to second place, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll of Iowa Republicans. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is slightly ahead of both Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry among registered Iowa voters.

Nearly a year after a nationwide working group of state attorneys general began investigating foreclosure fraud, settlement talks between Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller’s team and major lenders appear to be virtually irrelevant. California Attorney General Kamala Harris is the latest and most important state official to abandon the working group.

Less than 10 days before the current fiscal year ends, Congress has not approved any appropriations bills for fiscal year 2012. Yet again, continuing funding resolutions are needed to prevent the federal government from shutting down after September 30. Yesterday Representative Tom Latham was the only Iowan to vote yes as the U.S. House failed to approve a continuing resolution backed by Republican leaders.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is demanding that the Iowa Department of Natural Resources take steps to reduce fine particulate matter statewide and especially in the Muscatine area, which has long had some of Iowa’s worst air quality.

Particulates contribute to premature deaths and serious heart and lung diseases, not to mention acid rain and other environmental problems. So it’s disappointing to see state officials react to the EPA message with more concern about the polluters than the public’s health.  

Not long ago, Yves Smith predicted that the proposed settlement between large mortgage lenders and state attorneys general was “likely to fall apart.” This week’s developments may prove her right.  

Both of Iowa’s senators voted against the deal to raise the debt ceiling in early August, but only one of them voted last night to block a $500 billion debt ceiling increase, which was part of that agreement.

Earlier on September 8, Senators Tom Harkin and Chuck Grassley helped send a patent reform bill to President Barack Obama. The president and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have characterized patent reform as a job creation measure. Follow me after the jump for more on yesterday’s Senate votes.

President Barack Obama just made his case for “an American Jobs Act” in a speech to both chambers of Congress. In the usual Obama style, he offered Republicans a lot of compromises, like corporate tax cuts and a tax credit for employers. He argued for a payroll tax cut as well and called on Democrats to support “modest adjustments” to Medicare and Medicaid as well. On the spending side, Obama is seeking more funding for infrastructure, such as repairing roads and bridges and fixing “at least 35,000 schools.”

The full transcript of the president’s speech (as prepared) is after the jump. I’ve also posted some Iowa reaction, and I’ll keep this post updated as other members of Congress weigh in.  

I’ve seen a lot of hippie-punching by professional Democrats, but the Iowa Democratic Party’s attack on Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement yesterday was a particularly cynical example.