NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist released its latest Iowa poll today, which shows President Barack Obama ahead of Republican Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. It’s the best poll result for the president in Iowa this month. We Ask America conducted a one-day survey in Iowa on October 15 and found Obama ahead by 48.7 percent to 45.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 1.2 percent. American Research Group found Obama and Romney tied at 48 percent in its poll that was in the field between October 11 and 14. Rasmussen Reports found Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent in a one-day poll taken October 7.

Details on the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll are after the jump. Early voting and the gender gap are the key components of Obama’s advantage in Iowa.

Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).

Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).

Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.

President Barack Obama again pushed early voting and poked a little fun at Mitt Romney during a rally on the Cornell College campus in Mount Vernon today.

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney face off in a town-hall meeting style debate tonight, starting at 8 pm central. I’ll update this post later, possibly after the replay on CNN. Meanwhile, any comments about tonight’s debate or the presidential campaign in general are welcome in this thread.

Iowa politics watchers may want to tune in to Iowa Public Television at 7 pm tonight for the first debate between Representative Dave Loebsack and John Archer, his GOP challenger in the second Congressional district. That event will wrap up just before the presidential town hall begins.

UPDATE: I caught fragments of the debate and will have to watch the whole replay later. Sounds like “binders full of women” will be the sound bite of the night; don’t wave good-bye to the gender gap just yet. I thought Obama handled the immigration question far better than Romney did too. Some clips and post-debate polls are after the jump.

In a few minutes, Vice President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Paul Ryan will debate in Danville, Kentucky. I will update this post later with highlights. Meanwhile, share any comments about the debate or the presidential race generally in this thread.

I’ve been watching the third debate between Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham on Iowa Public Television tonight. You can use this thread for comments about the Congressional candidates’ debates.

UPDATE: Added a few thoughts after the jump.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney stopped in Iowa yesterday to push his economic and farm policies. However, his comments on abortion during an interview with the Des Moines Register overshadowed his speech to supporters at a rally in rural Van Meter (Madison County).

UPDATE: Added the fuller version of Romney’s remarks and Paul Ryan’s reaction below.

Fewer than 30 days remain until the presidential election. Any comments about the race in Iowa or nationally are welcome in this thread. I’ve compiled recent news, analysis, and advertising after the jump. I will update as needed, especially if any new Iowa poll comes out today. Gallup’s national tracking poll shows Mitt Romney gaining ground since last Wednesday’s presidential debate.

UPDATE: Rasmussen Reports has President Barack Obama leading Romney in Iowa by 49 percent to 47 percent, based on a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on October 7 (margin of error plus or minus 4.5 percent). Rasmussen’s previous Iowa poll had Romney leading 47 percent to 44 percent.

SECOND UPDATE: Added latest national polling data at the end of this post.

Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.

Looking at the daily numbers I’ve archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State’s Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.  

Republican nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama face off in their first debate tonight, beginning at 8 pm central time. I’ve posted a few links related to the presidential race after the jump and will update during and after the debate. I don’t expect any major fireworks or gaffes.

Any comments about the debate or the presidential election in general are are welcome in this thread.

I thought Mitt Romney made a strategic error in choosing Paul Ryan as a running mate. However, after listening to clips from Ryan’s campaign stops in eastern Iowa Monday and yesterday, I can see why many consider Ryan an asset to the Republican ticket.

This evening, the Des Moines Register releases partial results from its latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. I’ll update this post with the details shortly. UPDATE: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 45 percent. More information is after the jump. UPDATE: Added more details from Sunday’s paper.

Speaking of the Des Moines Register, an unbelievable lapse in media ethics was the focus of this week’s Civic Skinny column for Cityview, written by former Register editor Michael Gartner (from the pre-Gannett era). Long story short: the newspaper published an op-ed piece about the allegedly unfair treatment of a first-time juvenile offender, without disclosing that the 17-year-old in question is the son of Des Moines Register editorial writer Andie Dominick.

All topics are welcome in this open thread.

Early voting begins today in Iowa, 40 days before the general election. Bleeding Heartland covered the three ways to vote early here and is updating absentee ballot numbers every weekday here. After the jump I’ve posted more links and news related to the early voting process.

American Research Group released its latest Iowa poll today, which shows the ticket of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden leading Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with just 4 percent of respondents undecided.  

Even with perfect methodology–random sampling, neutral question wording, and an accurate likely voter screens–approximately one out of every 20 political polls will be wrong outside the margin of error, just by chance. Two polling firms released snapshots of the Iowa electorate yesterday. They can’t both be right.

About one-third of the 1,528,715 Iowans who cast ballots in the 2008 general election voted early. Absentee voting saved several Democratic incumbents in the state House and Senate that year. Bleeding Heartland will update these tables on weekdays until election day, using figures posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website (click the elections tab, then voters, then 2012 general election).

SEPTEMBER 27 UPDATE: Now adding totals for absentee ballots received by county auditors as well as absentee ballots requested each weekday.

SEPTEMBER 28 UPDATE: When an Iowan votes early in person at the auditor’s office, that counts as an absentee ballot requested by the voter and as an absentee ballot received by the auditor on the same day.

OCTOBER 21 UPDATE: Recent polls by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist and Public Policy Polling suggest that President Barack Obama has a 2:1 lead among Iowans who have already voted. For that to be true, the majority of no-party voters who cast early ballots would have to be supporting the president.

Early voting starts in Iowa on September 27, but candidates have been encouraging supporters to request early ballots for months. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that registered Democrats have submitted far more absentee ballot requests than have Republicans, statewide and in all four Congressional districts. Details are below.

UPDATE: Added a table with the latest numbers as of September 18. SECOND UPDATE: Will be updating the absentee ballot totals daily here.

The Siemens corporation announced today that “it will lay off 407 of the 660 workers at the blade manufacturing plant that is one of the five largest employers” in Fort Madison, Iowa (Lee County). Follow me after the jump for more details and reaction from Iowa elected officials and Congressional candidates.

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan campaigned in Des Moines yesterday, while Vice President Joe Biden kicked off a two-day swing through Iowa in Burlington. I’ve enclosed highlights from both men’s speeches after the jump. I’ll update this post later with clips from Biden’s events today in Ottumwa and Grinnell.

This thread is for any comments related to this week’s assassination of Christopher Stephens, the U.S. ambassador to Libya, and the violent protests at the U.S. embassy in Egypt. Here’s a timeline of events and statements from various officials and politicians. The diplomatic community is mourning Stephens, who became the eighth U.S. ambassador killed in the line of duty since 1950. There were some pro-American and anti-terrorism rallies in Libya on September 12. The U.S. has warships en route to Libya and is tightening security at embassies around the world.

Yesterday several commentators lambasted Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney for bungling his “3 a.m. phone call” moment. While events were unfolding in the Middle East, Romney criticized the Obama administration’s handling of the incidents. As Matt Vasilogambros reported here, the facts do not support Romney’s claim that the president’s “first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.” President Barack Obama told CBS correspondent Steve Kroft, “Governor Romney seems to have a tendency to shoot first and aim later. And as president, one of the things I’ve learned is you can’t do that.”

One of Republican Mitt Romney’s latest television commercials in Iowa asserts that cutting government spending and eliminating the federal deficit will create 130,000 jobs in Iowa. Meanwhile, in states with more military bases and defense sector industry, Romney campaign advertising promises to create hundreds of thousands of jobs by reversing planned cuts in defense spending.

Three days after proudly announcing the largest set of tax incentives Iowa has ever offered to a corporation, Governor Terry Branstad criticized President Barack Obama’s “penchant for trying to pick winners and losers in the marketplace.”

The two major-party presidential candidates held rallies yesterday in Iowa’s key Republican and Democratic strongholds. Mitt Romney was in Sioux County, which has voted more than 80 percent Republican in past presidential elections. Barack Obama and Joe Biden were in Johnson County, which has delivered big margins to Democrats who won close statewide elections in the past.

Public-sector jobs continue to decline, and private-sector job growth is not nearly strong enough to make a significant dent in the national unemployment rate, according to the latest monthly jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On the contrary, another recession is well within the range of possibilities for the coming year. Equally worrying, there appears to be no chance of passing another government stimulus package, no matter who wins the presidential election.

President Barack Obama just finished officially accepting the Democratic nomination for president. Normally I am not a fan of his speaking style, but that was one of his best performances in my opinion–better than the celebrated “Yes We Can.” Given how well Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton did earlier this week, I will be surprised if Obama doesn’t get a bump out of this convention. However, I don’t know what the television ratings have been like this week. Far fewer people watched this year’s Republican convention than in 2008.

Any comments about the presidential election are welcome in this thread. I’ll update the post later with more links related to the Iowa delegation and other speeches in the convention hall today. UPDATE: Links and clips are now after the jump.

President Bill Clinton is firing up the Democratic crowd in Charlotte. You can’t even tell he is using a teleprompter, in contrast to Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren speech a bit earlier this evening. He is talking about President Barack Obama rather than about himself, in contrast to last week’s Republican convention speech by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

I’ve posted some Clinton-related links after the jump, along with more news about the Iowa delegation. Any comments about the Democratic National Convention or the presidential race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Clinton’s speech just ended; he clocked in around 45 minutes. Too long, but well-delivered.

Republican Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan just wrapped up his event at Kirkwood College in Cedar Rapids, the first stop in a two-day swing through Iowa.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Added clips from Ryan’s rally in Adel.

The Democratic National Convention opens tonight in Charlotte, North Carolina, with a tightly-packed schedule of speakers. Broadcast television networks will show only the last hour of prime-time speeches: Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, Congressional candidate Joaquin Castro of Texas, San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Elaine Brye (a “military mother with four children serving in different branches of the armed forces”), and First Lady Michelle Obama.

O’Malley and several other possible future Democratic candidates for president are meeting with Iowa’s delegation in Charlotte this week. Details and other convention-related news are after the jump.

Getting out the vote early was a major theme of President Barack Obama’s campaign rallies in Urbandale and Sioux City yesterday. Democratic candidates for other offices need a strong early vote as well, but there’s no sign the president is concerned about electing Democrats up and down the ticket.

Mitt Romney formally accepted the Republican Party’s nomination for president last night. A surprise appearance by actor and director Clint Eastwood overshadowed Romney’s speech.

Normally I am a political party convention junkie, but I haven’t watched any of the Republican National Convention so far. Judging from media accounts of the prime-time program, it seems that Ann Romney gave a decent speech, dwelling on the theme of love, after which New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talked mostly about himself and said Republicans need to seek respect, not love. He also praised presidential nominee Mitt Romney for being willing to tell the hard truths about how to fix the deficit, but naturally, didn’t share any details on those tough budget cuts to come.

Any comments related to the GOP convention are welcome in this thread. Many links and news stories related to the Iowa delegation are after the jump.

President Barack Obama held a campaign rally in Ames today, drawing a crowd of approximately 6,000 on the Iowa State University campus. I enclosed the transcript of the president’s remarks at the bottom of this post. As in all his campaign speeches, he framed the election as a “choice” between two paths, rather than as a referendum on his performance. Obama also emphasized his administration’s efforts to make college tuition and student loans more affordable.

The president will need strong turnout in places like Ames this November, because yet another Iowa poll shows the gap between Obama and Romney within the margin of error.

Some politicians at the federal and state level would have you believe that rules intended to protect public health and the environment are “job-killing regulations.” Congressional Republicans and some Democrats have voted several times to block air quality rules that would force certain industrial plants to retrofit. Although the Obama administration has enacted promising rules to reduce air pollution from coal-fired power plants, President Barack Obama has occasionally validated Republican scaremongering over pollution regulations. For instance, he delayed new smog rules from going into effect in 2011, citing a concern for “reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory uncertainty, particularly as our economy continues to recover.”

The reality of pollution control looks different. It looks like hundreds of construction workers getting a job, and Ottumwa-area businesses reaping the benefits.

At this time four years ago, Barack Obama’s campaign had about 30 field offices up and running in Iowa, compared to six offices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Obama’s campaign has had eight Iowa field offices open this summer and is rolling out another 26 offices around Iowa this weekend. So far, Mitt Romney’s campaign has ten Iowa field offices, in addition to the unified Republican headquarters in Urbandale.

After the jump, I compare the field office locations for each presidential campaign, grouped by Iowa Congressional district. Where relevant, I’ve also noted competitive Iowa House and Senate districts near the Obama and Romney field offices, although I doubt either presidential campaign will do much for down-ticket Democratic or Republican candidates.

For the past ten days, GOP strategists have worried anonymously that Representative Paul Ryan’s presence on the national ticket will hurt Mitt Romney’s campaign, especially in the must-win state of Florida. One of the top Democratic talking points of the last year and a half has been Ryan’s plan to “end Medicare as we know it” by forcing future retirees to purchase government-subsidized private health insurance.

Romney’s strategists seem to have decided that the best defense on Medicare is a good offense. A television commercial launched last week attacked President Barack Obama’s record on Medicare, and a brand-new spot echoes that charge. Both videos are after the jump, along with transcripts and one of the Obama campaign’s response ads.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has tried to keep his campaign focused on economic and fiscal issues, but President Barack Obama’s latest television commercial in Iowa spotlights abortion rights and federal funding for Planned Parenthood. The video, annotated transcript, and related news are all after the jump.

One of the top international news stories of this week was the criminal conviction of three Russian feminist punk rockers from the group Pussy Riot. Maria Alyokhina, Yekaterina Samutsevich, and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova face two years in prison on trumped-up charges of “hooliganism motivated by religious hatred.” Read the closing statements they delivered at their trial and tell me these women aren’t more brave than anyone you know. They must be missing their families and hating their crummy prison conditions, but the defendants denounced the show trial instead of apologizing and asking for mercy from the court.

Meanwhile, Iowa politics-watchers once again debated whether it’s appropriate to heckle speakers at the Iowa State Fair soapbox.

Republican Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent in Iowa, according to a poll Rasmussen Reports released today.

For a good example of gamesmanship on Capitol Hill, look no further than yesterday’s U.S. House votes on offshore oil drilling. Republicans pushed a bill that won’t go anywhere in order to score points against the president’s energy policy. Democrats added language about U.S. sanctions against Iran and Syria to their motion to recommit in order to accuse Republicans of showing “reckless disregard for American national security.”

Yet again, Representatives Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the Democrats who voted with Republicans on legislation affecting the oil industry.

Iowa’s two U.S. senators were on opposite sides yesterday in near party-line votes on tax policy.  

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey finds President Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 48 percent to 43 percent.