Monday is Barack Obama's birthday, and I encourage you to mark the occasion by finding an event for volunteers near you. You can find more event details and RSVP for any of these events by going to the Iowa page at www.barackobama.com.

Note that Becky Greenwald will be at the Waukee office opening, and Rob Hubler will be at the Sioux City event.

 Happy Birthday Barack @ TIPTON Office (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 10:00 AM
 Cedar County Democratic HQ (Tipton, IA)
 In honor of Barack turning 47 on Monday, we'll have cake and a giant birthday card for all to sign at the office. Well wishers…

 Barack's Birthday Celebration (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 4:00 PM
 Scott County Obama Office (Davenport, IA)
 Come join us celebrate Senator Obama's 47th birthday by honoring him with 47 phone calls to your friends and neighbors!

 Barack's Birthday (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 4:00 PM
 1229 1st Ave SE (Cedar Rapids, IA)
 We will celebrate Barack's Birthday by canvassing and phonebanking followed by cake and ice cream in the office!

 Polk County Barack Obama 47th Birthday Bash! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 4:30 PM
 Polk County Campaign for Change Field Office (Des Moines, IA)
 August 4th is Barack's 47th Birthday! Let's give him the best birthday gift of all and help him win Iowa on November 4th! Come to…

 47 for Barack's 47th (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 Campaign for Change Office (Burlington, IA)
 Monday August 4th will be Senator Obama's 47th Birthday. Come join us at the Burlington office to celebrate the occasion! We will all be making…

 Come celebrate Barack's 47th Birthday! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 DBQ County Dems HQ (Dubuque, IA)
 Come on down to DBQ Dems HQ anytime between 5:00 and 8:30 on Monday, August 4th to make 47 calls in honor of Barack's 47th…

 Celebrate Barack Obama's B-day! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 Decorah, IA (Decorah, IA)
 Come celebrate Sen. Barack Obama's 47th b-day with fellow supporters at the new democratic office in Decorah. Eat some birthday cake with fellow supporters and…

 Celebrate Barack's 47th Birthday (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 TBD (Clinton, IA)
 Come join your fellow Obama supporters to make 47 calls for Barack in honor of his 47th birthday! Beginning at 5:00 on Monday, August 4th,…

 West Des Moines B-Day Bash for Barack (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 West Des Moines Obama Office (West Des Moines, IA)
 Come join us as we celebrate Barack's 47th birthday in making 47 phone calls and/or 47 door knocks! All first-timers welcomed! We will train you…

 Waukee Office Opening/Barack's B-day Party (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 Campaign for Change/Becky Greenwald for Congress (Waukee, IA)
 We'll be celebrating Barack's Birthday and the opening of Iowa's newest field office located in Becky Greenwald for Congress' Waukee campaign office! Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald…

 Sioux City Obama Birthday Celebration! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 Sioux City Obama (Sioux City, IA)
 This Monday, August 4th, Obama’s Campaign for Change and Hubler for Congress invite you to celebrate Barack’s 47th birthday with a unity potluck. Following the…

 Barack's Birthday Canvass–Grinnell (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:00 PM
 Bierman Law Office (Grinnell, IA)
 In Honor of Barack's Birthday, help us spread the word about him in our community.

 Barack's Birthday Bash (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:30 PM
 Campaign for Change HQ (Mason City, IA)
 Barack is turning 47 on August 4. Let's help him have a Happy Birthday by joining together and showing him that Iowa is still strong…

 Oskaloosa, Iowa Volunteer Phone Bank (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:30 PM
 Iowa Campaign for Change-Oskaloosa Office (Oskaloosa, IA)
 In honor of Barack's Birthday, supporters will come to our office from 5:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. to sign a Birthday card, and call voters…

 Barack's Birthday Bash (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 5:30 PM
 CFC Warren County Office (Indianola, IA)
 A wonderful opportunity to get involved with our campaign, visit our new office in Indianola, and celebrate the Senator's 47th birthday! We are asking supporters…

 Indee Birthday Bash (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Campaign for Change Office (Independence, IA)
 Bring the best present you can for the next President of the United States: Your empowered self! We'll be making 47 phone calls for 47…

 Barack Obama's Black Hawk Birthday Party! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Black Hawk Democratic Headquarters (Waterloo, IA)
 Come celebrate Barack Obama's 47th birthday with a day of action in our Black Hawk headquarters. We'll have cake and ice cream to fuel us…

 47 for Barack's 47th! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Gus and Tony's (Waukon, IA)
 Barack Obama turns 47 on Monday, Aug. 4th and we're all going to celebrate with him! We'll be meeting at Gus and Tony's in Waukon…

 Celebrate Barack's Birthday at a Dessert Potluck! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Blue Bunny Ice Cream Parlor (Le Mars, IA)
 This Monday, Barack Obama will turn 47 years old. Let's take some time to celebrate and talk about the campaign this Monday at 6 pm!…

 Barack's Birthday/ Phonebank Party (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Obama Office (Iowa Falls, IA)
 Come and help us celebrate Barack Obama's 47th birthday here at the office located at 210 Main Street right across the street from Porter's on…

 Baracks Birthday Celebration/ Meet and Greet (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Deb Leksell's House (Webster City, IA)
 Come and help us celebrate Barack's 47th birthday! This will be an excellent opportunity for you to meet the Obama organizer for Hamilton county and…

 Barack's Birthday House Party (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:00 PM
 Deb Leksell's Home (Webster City, IA)
 Celebrating Barack's birthday with other precinct captains and Barack supporters!

 Barack's Birthday Meeting (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 6:30 PM
 The Home of Nena Tichy (Fairfield, IA)
 It's Barack's Birthday this Monday and he wants us to celebrate "campaign style"!! Come out and learn about everything the campaign has going on currently…

 Barack's Birthday House Party (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Monday, August 4 at 7:00 PM
 Nina's HOuse (Fairfield, IA)
 Comecelebrate Barack's Birthday with us and support his candidacy by making some calls to support the 'Get Out the Vote' drive! All are welcome–come enjoy…

 Rescheduled Precinct Organizational Meeting #3 (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Tuesday, August 5 at 7:00 PM
 Barb Faust Residence (Iowa City, IA)
 Our deepest sympathies go out to Cheryl in this time of loss. I can only hope that in some small way, Cheryl and all those…

 Its Barack's Birthday (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Wednesday, August 6 at 12:00 PM
 Campaign For Change HQ-Ottumwa, IA (Ottumwa, IA)
 Come over to the office on August 4th and have some Birthday cake and make 47 calls to celebrate Barack's 47th Birthday!

 Barack Obama's Birthday Party and Phone Bank! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Friday, August 8 at 4:00 PM
 Johnson County Democratic Headquarters (Iowa City, IA)
 Join local staff and supporters galore at 625 S. Dubuque St. for an exciting evening in celebration of Barack's 47th Birthday! We will have cake…

 Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM
 Barack Obama's Campaign for Change (Council Bluffs, IA)
 Join us and help celebrate Barack's 47th birthday! We will enjoy food and the # 47 in all of its forms!

 Open House (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM
 Democratic Headquarters (Marshalltown, IA)
 We will be meeting at the Democratic Headquarters here in Marshalltown this Monday from 5-9pm to celebrate Barack Obama's 47th birthday! We will be making…

 Celebrate, Communicate, Change! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM
 Campaign for Change Headquarters (Fort Dodge, IA)
 Senator Obama will be turning 47 and we are having a party in his honor. We would like as many people to attend this celebration…

 Union County Office Opening & Obama birthday celebration (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Friday, August 8 at 7:00 PM
 Union County Democratic Campign Office (Creston, IA)
 The Union County Democrats Campaign office grand opening will be Friday, August 8th 7-9-PM. Location is 209 N. Maple St., Creston. THis will be a…

 Iowa City Precinct 25 Organizing and Planning Extravaganza!!! (Barack's Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)
 Tuesday, August 12 at 7:00 PM
 Blackstone (Iowa City, IA)
 This will be a chance for all Iowa City Precinct 25 residents who wish to be involved with the Obama campaign to meet, get to…

Either Barack Obama or John McCain may pick a running mate this week, before the Olympics start.

I haven’t heard much buzz lately about McCain’s choice. My money’s still on Mitt Romney, who has a relatively coherent message on economic policy (for a Republican) and can raise a lot of cash.

Word is that Hillary Clinton will address the Democratic National Convention in Denver on the Tuesday night. Since Obama’s running mate is expected to speak on Wednesday night, it seems that Hillary is not under serious consideration for VP.

Matt Stoller is still pushing for Wes Clark, and he and other bloggers have started a draft Clark for VP site, but I see no evidence that Clark is even being vetted by Obama’s team. They seem to want to avoid picking someone who will be seen as “balancing” any weakness in Obama’s resume.

Todd Beeton suspects the Obama team has decided the running mate should have some Washington experience, and he made a fascinating observation at MyDD:

My gut tells me a couple of things. First of all, Barack is not going to pick someone who needs to be introduced to the country. He has enough of an uphill climb introducing himself to the nation, is he really going to pick another unknown quantity for the ticket? So that leaves us with a different list, which, let’s say for argument, looks like this: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Wesley Clark, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Sam Nunn.

Among these possible picks, some are known thanks to their extensive Washington, DC resumes (Clinton, Biden, Nunn, Dodd), some are not (Clark, Edwards, Richardson.) So, which list will Obama pick from? You’ll recall that in the primary, Barack ran against Washington experience and turned what Hillary thought would be her top selling point into an albatross around her neck with one very effective line: “are we just going to keep sending the same people to Washington and expect a different result?” In other words, if you’ve spent a lot of time in DC then how can you expect to change it? He could and should be using the same line against McCain, but he’s not. The other day I noticed him almost say it at one of his townhalls, but he caught himself. Why? My gut is that he’s leaning toward picking a Washington insider for his VP. My guess is it’s Biden.

Biden wouldn’t be my first choice for VP, but he would be a good fit for Obama in many ways. He’s a strong campaigner and could be an effective attack dog. Also, I think he would help Obama with the over-60 voters, where he is relatively weak.

Then again, First Read reports that the press team following Obama will spend 21 hours in South Bend, Indiana from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon. They suspect that Obama might select Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as his running mate there.

Like Biden, Bayh is a Washington insider, but he’s also a former governor of a red state. He endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, so that might be a gesture toward uniting the party.

Then again, Obama may just be planning to hold a few campaign events in Indiana because that state could be competitive this year.

Bayh is way too conservative for my taste; for instance, he voted for Bush’s tax cuts in 2001. More worrying, we would likely lose his Senate seat if he became vice president, unless Jill Long Thompson pulls off an upset in the Indiana gubernatorial race this year. If Obama wants a Washington insider, I’d prefer Biden.

Many people still expect Obama to choose a different red state governor, either Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas or Tim Kaine of Virginia.

For whatever reason, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson doesn’t seem to be on Obama’s short list. That’s too bad, because I like him a lot more than Kaine, and I think he brings more to the table than Sebelius.

OK, I admit to being creeped out when the Obama campaign website put a white glow around the candidate and the states that voted for him in the primaries.

But this new ad from John McCain is ridiculous:

I’m a little surprised this ad didn’t quote Oprah, who really did call Obama “the one.”

It’s not clear whether this ad is running anywhere on television or just on the web for now. They may be banking on getting news and analysis programs to run it for free.

Note that this comes directly from the McCain campaign and not from the Republican National Committee or some 527 group. Normally the presidential campaign runs positive commercials, while outside groups do the dirty work.

They have realized that McCain is a poor candidate, so they need to focus all their resources on shoring up the conservative base and making Obama unacceptable to the swing voters.

The Daily Show did a great segment on this “Obama is arrogant” meme last night and how absurd it is, given how McCain makes all kinds of grandiose statements and promises on the campaign trail. Watch the clip here, or catch the rerun of the Daily Show on Monday.

Following up on my earlier post on the best way to combat John McCain’s demagoguery, the Sierra Club put out a great release today:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 1, 2008

Contact: Kristina Johnson, 415.977.5619

            Josh Dorner, 202.675.2384

                         Oops, He Did It Again!

                  McCain Prefers Own Rhetoric to Facts,

                   Actual Experts on Offshore Drilling

Washington, D.C.–In Florida today, Senator John McCain said he was

convinced offshore drilling would yield immediate oil-despite hard data to

the contrary from experts like the federal government’s Energy Information

Administration.

According to the EIA, it would take 7-10 years for oil to come online from

new drilling, and twenty years to reach peak production. And, as the New

York Times recently noted, because of a recent shortage in drilling

equipment, it could likely take even longer.

But McCain said:

“…So I disagree with those experts and I’ve talked to the actual people

that do the work, that are in the business that say within months and

certainly within a very short time, we could have additional oil supply for

this nation. So we ought to drill now.” (Video HERE)

        Statement of Sierra Club Political Director Cathy Duvall

“Senator McCain may ‘disagree with the experts,’ but that doesn’t make the

facts go away. New offshore drilling simply won’t provide any oil for

roughly a decade. And even then, the Bush administration itself admits that

drilling will do absolutely nothing to lower gas prices today, tomorrow, or

even two decades from now.

“Oil companies aren’t interested in lowering gas prices. Keeping supply

tight and oil prices high keeps Big Oil rolling in record profits. The oil

companies are spending almost ten times more-a full 55 percent of their

record profits-on stock buybacks and dividends than they are on

exploration.  This drives up the price of their shares, their profits, and

the paychecks of their executives.

“This episode is eerily reminiscent of Senator McCain’s insistence that his

misguided ‘gas tax holiday’ would benefit consumers and not simply add to

Big Oil’s record profits.  McCain and his aides continue to insist that the

230 leading economists — including 4 Nobel Prize winners — who denounced

his plan are simply wrong.

“We’re in an energy crisis.  Americans do need short-term help to offset

the cost of gas, and Senator Obama has a plan to give it to them. He has

proposed a $1,000 refund check paid for by taxing Big Oil’s record profits

that would offer us immediate relief. That’s something new drilling won’t

do, no matter what John McCain says.”

                                  # # #

I like this better than the MoveOn “gimmick” ad (which you can view in the earlier post). In addition to pointing out why McCain is wrong on this issue, it links his proposal to what big oil companies want and profit from. Also, the Sierra Club statement has a healthy dose of ridicule, which McCain deserves.

All that’s missing is a line about how we don’t need a third term of a presidency in the pocket of Big Oil. I’m with Dansac on the need to repeat “McCain is Bush’s third term” as often as possible.

Meanwhile, Obama took several steps in the right direction at a town hall meeting in Florida today. He is calling for a $1,000 tax rebate for low and middle-income families. A windfall profits tax on oil companies would pay for the rebates.

The Illinois senator also revamped his proposal for a $50 billion economic stimulus plan to include $25 billion to replenish the highway trust fund and pay for infrastructure improvements that he said could save up to 1 million endangered jobs.

“With job losses mounting, prices rising, increased turbulence in our financial system, a growing credit crunch, we need to do more,” Obama said at a town hall meeting in St. Petersburg, Florida.

The proposals came as the government announced the U.S. unemployment rate hit its highest level in four years with another 51,000 non-farm jobs lost in July, bringing job losses for the year to 463,000.

“Do you think you can afford another four years of the same failed economic policies?” Obama asked, accusing McCain of embracing President George W. Bush’s economic approach.

Let McCain explain why he and the Republican Party refuse to consider a windfall tax on oil companies that are reporting record profits this year.

John McCain has been blaming Barack Obama for high gas prices because Obama opposes more offshore oil drilling. Here’s the response from MoveOn.org:

It’s a simple message: we expected more from McCain than misleading gimmicks.

The Obama campaign has taken this approach a step further by launching a new website: lowroadexpress.com. You can watch Obama’s tv commercial that portrays McCain as practicing the politics of the past and clinging to failed policies. You can read newspaper editorials criticizing McCain’s tactics. The main message of the site is this:

Welcome to the Low Road Express.

John McCain used to stand for “straight talk.” Not anymore.

These days John McCain doesn’t seem to stand for anything but negative attacks and false charges against Barack Obama. This isn’t the John McCain we used to know.

I see the point of hitting McCain on his supposed strength as a straight talker, and I see the point of working the refs in the media by calling out McCain for his negative campaigning.

However, I wonder whether going after McCain’s campaign tactics should be the main thrust of the Democratic response.

I agree with David Mizner, who wrote yesterday, “Good populist rhetoric, and linking McCain to corporate greed, is the way to beat not only McCain’s drilling nonsense, but the Brittany-Spears smear campaign.”

Mizner linked to a great statement from the Obama campaign regarding the record quarterly profit reported by Exxon Mobil:

Perhaps the only thing more outrageous than Exxon Mobil making record profits while Americans are paying record prices at the pump is the fact that Senator McCain has proposed giving them an additional $1.2 billion tax break. While Senator McCain’s plan has succeeded in helping his campaign raise over $1 million from oil and gas company executives and employees just last month, it won’t lower gas prices or end our dangerous dependence on foreign oil. Instead of an energy policy that reads like an oil-company wish list, it’s time to create a new American energy economy by investing in alternative energy, creating millions of new jobs, increasing fuel efficiency standards, and ending the tyranny of oil once and for all.

Now the focus is on McCain as a typical corrupt Republican who takes money from corporate executives and supports big tax breaks for profitable companies.

That seems more damaging than saying he runs mean television commercials.

You might think, of course desmoinesdem wants Obama to talk more about Republicans being bought and paid for by powerful corporations–she was an Edwards supporter!

Well, longtime Obama backer Dansac is concerned that McCain’s attack ads are working and would like to see Obama go on offense:

Get scrappy Obama, no more worrying about “looking Presidential.”  The high road is for suckers and we thought you knew this.  Winning is really quite simple:

“John McCain is Bush’s 3rd Term” and “John McCain is Completely Out of Touch and Knows Nothing about the Economy”

Repeat it over and over.  Not just Obama, but a coordinated surrogate strategy with really tough talking points.  Call his ads “pathetic” and what you’d expect from someone “who has nothing to offer but a 3rd Bush term and knows nothing about the economy.”

Frame HIM instead of allowing yourself to be framed.  Because don’t be fooled Obama folks or Kossacks, that’s what’s starting to happen.  

Victory may still be ours, but a landslide is increasingly unlikely and victory will be tougher to achieve.  We have a very small window, a VERY small window to start pushing back aggressively.  And accusing McCain of taking the “low road” won’t do it.  We need to get in the muck and define him.

Offense.  It’s what’s for dinner.

About that window: the election is less than 100 days away, and fladem has persuasively argued that most recent presidential elections have been won or lost in the summer, not the fall.

What do you think is the right approach for Obama? Chiding McCain for using the politics of the past? Accusing McCain of doing the oil companies’ bidding? Branding McCain as Bush’s third term?

Very clever. An e-mail from the Polk County Democrats informs me that the Obama campaign will be sending out the vice-presidential selection by text message.

To “hear the historic news wherever you are,” just text IOWA to 62262. Then you’ll receive updates from the Obama campaign in Iowa on your cell phone.

I don’t text message, but I imagine a huge number of people will be signing up for these updates.

Speaking of cell phones, the Obama campaign will have the biggest phone bank ever at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium. About 75,000 people are expected to attend Obama’s speech the night he will accept the Democratic nomination, and the campaign will ask them to call unregistered voters.

And speaking of crowds, the Des Moines Register’s website has the video from Obama’s town hall in Cedar Rapids today. I only caught a small fragment, but I liked what he said about how parents need to turn off the television and unplug the video games.

In part of the town hall that I did not see, Obama went after John McCain on energy policy:

“Under my opponent’s plan, the oil companies get billions more and we stay in the same cycle of addiction and dependence on big oil that got us into this crisis in the first place,” Obama told an audience of about 1,000 at Coe College in Cedar Rapids. “That’s a risk that we just can’t afford to take.”

Obama was referring to McCain’s support for a gas-tax holiday and expanding the areas where oil companies can drill. Obama says a tax holiday would pad oil company profits and that they already have access to areas where they are not drilling.

[…]

“It won’t drop prices in this administration, the next administration or the administration after that,” he said. “Although it won’t save you dollars at the pump, I will say it has raised campaign dollars.”

Obama said McCain raised $1 million from oil company executives at a fundraiser in Houston last month.

Democrats better have a good answer on oil drilling, because not only is McCain blaming Obama for high gas prices in some of his campaign ads, down-ticket Republicans like Tom Latham will also use this issue against their opponents.

Use this as an open thread to talk about Barack Obama’s town hall meeting in Cedar Rapids today:

Economic Security Town Hall with Barack Obama

Coe College

Moray L. Eby Fieldhouse

1220 1st Avenue NE

Cedar Rapids, Iowa 52402

THURSDAY, JULY 31ST, 2008

Doors Open: 9:30 AM

Program Begins: 11:30 AM

The event is free and open to the public.  However, tickets are required.

Also, here are some other events coming up.

Thursday, July 31:

It’s the last day to contribute to Barack Obama’s campaign for a chance to win a trip to the Democratic National Convention in Denver:

https://donate.barackobama.com…

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is also giving away a trip to Denver. Donate before midnight on July 31 for a chance to win:

http://dccc.org/blog/archives/…

One Iowa and Green Drinks are co-hosting a Happy Hour from 5 to 7 pm at the Hillside Condo Penthouse, 1902 Woodland Ave in Des Moines, suite 300 (the building next to the Gateway Market). Suggested donation $20, but no one is turned away. Please RSVP at oneiowa.org.

From Polk County Democrats:

You are cordially invited to attend a wine and cheese reception for John Scarpino, Democratic Candidate for Polk County Supervisor, at the home of Ray and Karen Blase, 913 NE 34th Street, Ankeny, July 31 from 5:30 to 7:30 P.M.

From the Rebuild Iowa Commission:

First ‘Speak Up Iowa!’ Public Listening Session Will Also Be Held at

Kirkwood Community College Thursday 4-7 p.m.

Press Release from Rebuild Iowa Office

Subject: REBUILD IOWA ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING TO BE HELD IN CEDAR RAPIDS

THIS THURSDAY

First ‘Speak Up Iowa!’ Public Listening Session Will Also Be Held at

Kirkwood Community College

On Thursday, the Rebuild Iowa Office will hold its second Rebuild Iowa

Advisory Commission (RIAC) meeting at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar

Rapids to discuss the state’s recovery and rebuilding efforts following this

year’s severe storms and flooding. In addition, the public will have the

opportunity to give their input on the recovery process at the first “Speak

Up Iowa!” public listening session, which will also be held Thursday.

The “Speak Up Iowa!” listening sessions initiate dialogue on the major

issues facing the State and provide an opportunity for official public and

community involvement, with specific focus on gaining input for the RIO

45-day Report due September 2, 2008. The session will include nine booths,

each representing one of the nine task force areas. At these booths,

residents will have the opportunity to voice their ideas and desires

regarding the long-term recovery of their communities.

THURSDAY, JULY 31, 2008

WHAT: Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission to hold its second meeting to discuss

the state’s disaster and rebuilding efforts.

WHERE: Emergency Operations Center

              (located in the Community Training and Response Center)

              Kirkwood Community College Campus

              6301 Kirkwood Blvd. SW

              Cedar Rapids, Iowa

              (A map of the campus is available at

www.kirkwood.edu/maincampus.)

WHEN:   2 to 5 p.m.

THURSDAY, JULY 31, 2008

WHAT: Rebuild Iowa Office holds first “Speak Up Iowa!” public listening

session.

WHERE: Iowa Hall, Rooms A through D

              Kirkwood Community College Campus

              6301 Kirkwood Blvd. SW

              Cedar Rapids, Iowa

(A map of the campus is available at www.kirkwood.edu/maincampus.)

WHEN:   4 to 7 p.m.

From 1000 Friends of Iowa:

Johnson County Conservation Board Holding Public Meetings on Land Conservation

A series of informational meetings will be held to receive input from the public on the Johnson County Conservation Board’s proposed $20 million Conservation Bond Issue Ballot Measure for land protection. The measure will be put before the voters of Johnson County on the November 4, 2008, General Election Ballot. Conservation Board members and staff will be on hand to give an overview of the proposal and Mark Ackelson, President of the Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation, will facilitate the meetings.

According to the Johnson County Conservation Board’s newsletter, The Conservation Connection:

   * “Local organizations and individuals struggle to preserve some natural lands. The Johnson County Conservation Board, which has the mandated responsibility, has responded by making a serious commitment to find ways to protect more remaining vestiges of unique natural areas before they are destroyed by the relentless march of development.”

Two of these public meetings have already occurred, and there are two left.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

7:00 – 9:00 pm

North Liberty Recreation Center

Classroom C

520 West Cherry Street

North Liberty

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

7:00 – 9:00 pm

Solon Public Library

Meeting Room

320 West Main Street

Solon

To learn more about the proposal before the meetings, check out the JCCB’s newsletter article at

http://www.johnson-county.com/…

Questions about the meetings should be directed to Harry Graves, Director, Johnson County Conservation Board at 319-645-2315 or email hgraves@co.johnson.ia.us.

It’s a rare opportunity to vote on a topic such as this Conservation Bond Issue. Only through the involvement of committed citizens will governments be able to implement strategies that protect natural areas from development. Your ears, eyes, and voices are critical!

Friday, August 1:

From the Polk County Democrats:

The Festa Italiana is going on this weekend.  We will be manning a booth on Friday and Saturday this year.  The hours we need volunteers are:

Friday, August 1 5p – 7p or 7p – 9p

Saturday, August 2  2p – 4p, 4p – 6p, and 6p – 9p

Please let me know if you are available to help out.

Thanks!

Tamyra Harrison

Executive Director

Polk County Democrats

515-285-1800

Saturday, August 2:

From Planned Parenthood of Greater Iowa:

Volunteer Opportunity

Des Moines Farmer’s Market

Court Avenue Area

Des Moines

Saturday, August 2nd

8am-12pm

Click Here to Volunteer!

Planned Parenthood of Greater Iowa and the Healthy Families project will be at the Des Moines Farmer’s Market this Saturday, August 2nd.

We need your help!

Volunteers will represent the Planned Parenthood mission, and help educate people about the need to reduce unintended pregnancies in Iowa.  Of course we’ll be handing out lots of goodies as well!

Past Farmer’s market volunteers have had a lot of fun, and say it’s one of the best volunteer opportunities available.

“This was the first time I’ve ever volunteered for Planned Parenthood and it was so much fun!  I felt like I really made a difference!” – Judy, volunteer at past Des Moines Farmer’s Markets.

Help educate the public and have fun too. Any time you can give is much appreciated: work for a couple of hours, or the whole time. Shifts are available from 8am – 12pm.

Thanks for all that you do for Planned Parenthood!

E-mail Chelsea Hammond to volunteer (chammond AT ppgi.org) or call (515) 235-0415

From the Sierra Club e-mail loop:

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge – A Priceless Gift

A Presentation and Storytelling

about a very Special Place

When:      Saturday August 2nd, 2008, at 10:00 am

Where:     Urbandale Public Library, Meeting Room A/B

               3520 86th Street Urbandale, Iowa  50322

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is one of America’s premier wilderness

areas.  The coastal plain of the Refuge has been threatened by oil drilling

many times in its 50 year history. Today, threats from Big Oil are greater

than they have been for over two decades.  Come learn about the history,

it’s values, and how you can help protect this national treasure.

This is a story, as well, of indigenous concerns, and about raising the

voices of those urging our government to recognize the rights of indigenous

peoples.

For more information contact: Lois Norrgard 952-881-7282 lois@alaskawild.org

Presented by:

Sarah James, a Neetsaii Gwich’in Athabascan Indian from Arctic Village,

Alaska, raised in the traditional nomadic way. Sarah was one of the first

recipients of the Ford Foundation Leadership for a Changing World Award and

a co-recipient of the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize for her work

with the Gwich’in Steering Committee to protect the calving and nursery

grounds of the Porcupine River Caribou Herd. The Porcupine Caribou Herd has

sustained the Gwich’in for over twenty thousand years.

Lois Norrgard, the Upper Midwest Field staff for the Alaska Wilderness

League. She has worked for the League and Alaska Coalition for the past

three years, continuing to raise awareness about the values and threats

facing our beautiful wild lands in Alaska.

Some places are just too special to destroy for a short term gain – the

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is one of these places

I corrected this post to note that this fundraising drive is for Barack Obama’s campaign, not the DNC. But you should give to the DNC as well!

Barack Obama is going to accept the Democratic nomination for president at Mile High Stadium in Denver in front of an estimated 75,000 people.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean sent out an e-mail today asking for donations to the DNC the Obama campaign, with an extra incentive backing up his fundraising pitch.

If you make a donation before midnight tomorrow, you could be part of a very special opportunity. Ten supporters who give before the July fundraising deadline will be selected for an all-expenses-paid trip to Denver. You’ll get to bring a guest, fly to Denver, spend a couple days at the convention, and meet Barack before his speech.

Donate today, and you could go Backstage with Barack:

Make a donation before the deadline

https://donate.barackobama.com…

The full text of Dean’s e-mail is after the jump.

Remember that the Republican National Committee has been raising more money this year than the DNC and will be spending it on behalf of John McCain. It’s not enough for the Obama campaign to raise money–the DNC also has to be competitive in fundraising.

I got noticed by Markos on the front page of Daily Kos!

Unfortunately, it was to attack and take out of context what I wrote in this post at MyDD yesterday.

Markos didn’t like my opinion that it would be a political mistake for Barack Obama to choose a woman running mate other than Hillary Clinton.

Actually, “didn’t like” is a bit of an understatement:

This is such a crock of shit. After all the talk of Clinton breaking glass barriers, are her supporters still so hung up on her loss that they’re willing to create a new glass ceiling for women candidates, one that excludes anyone not named Hillary Clinton?

Fact is, the party is united behind Obama. In the latest Research 2000 national poll shows that Obama wins Democrats 82-9 percent, which is little different than McCain’s 83-10. In 2004, Kerry won Democrats 89-11, and Obama will be up in that range when all’s said and done. There are no more “party unity” concerns.

Throw in the fact that Obama has locked down the Latino vote, is winning women handily, has shown surprising strength in the Mountain West, the midwest, and even parts of the South. He has locked down the Democratic strongholds. It’s clear that Obama doesn’t need Clinton on the ticket.

I never said Obama needed to choose Hillary or that he is having problems uniting the party.

And of course I was not a Clinton supporter at any time and have not been advocating for her selection as VP (though Obama could do a lot worse).

Markos goes on to say,

I’ve got several people on my list of veep possibilities that would certainly reinforce Obama’s core message of change, and several are women (mainly Sebelius and McCaskill). I don’t have any inkling where Obama is going with this thing, but I do know that being forced to take women off his shortlist lest he offend some Hillary supporters is asinine. I doubt Clinton fought to shatter one glass ceiling to replace it with another.

Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius makes sense in that she is a two-term governor. I also like that she stepped in to block coal-fired power plants from being built.

Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill would be a terrible choice in my opinion. She has less relevant experience than Obama and is on the right wing of the Missouri Democratic Party. She has a much less progressive voting record than Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

My comment in this thread at Daily Kos:

for the record, here is what I said

and did not say.

I did not say Obama needs to pick a woman. In fact, at the end of that very post I said I’d offer it to Wesley Clark if I were Obama.

I did not say Obama has a problem with women voters.

I did not say Hillary is the only woman qualified to be on the ticket.

However, she is the only woman who was the preferred presidential candidate of 17 million plus voters.

I do think that in light of this year’s extraordinary primary battle, it would be a political mistake for Obama to choose a woman running mate other than Hillary.

If Hillary were the nominee, I would also advise her against choosing a black man for VP other than Obama (though many would be qualified, such as John Conyers or Charlie Rangel).

To do so would be viewed as a slap in the face to Obama.

Also, Hillary wasn’t my first, second or third, choice, so I appreciate not being referred to as one of her supporters.

This comment got buried under an avalanche of comments agreeing with Markos and misrepresenting what I believe, but I wanted to set the record straight here.

Use this as a thread for more idle speculation about whom Obama should and should not choose as a running mate.

Several commenters at MyDD made the case for Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who was an early Obama supporter. I don’t think we have a very deep bench in Virginia. It’s not worth giving up a governor to put Kaine on the ticket.

I still think that if Obama does not want to choose Hillary (and it looks like he doesn’t), he should choose someone close to the Clintons–and not Florida Senator Bill Nelson or Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Not only are they both too conservative for my liking, we would lose a Senate seat if either of them became vice president.

UPDATE: Yet another report indicates that Hillary Clinton is not on Obama’s short list for VP. As I’ve said, I don’t think he would choose her unless he felt he couldn’t win without her, and he probably can win without her.

Stay tuned:

Senator Barack Obama’s postponed trip to Cedar Rapids has been rescheduled for Thursday, July 31st, 2008. Senator Obama’s visit to Cedar Rapids was originally scheduled for June, but was postponed due to the floods.

On Thursday, Senator Obama will host a town hall meeting on the economy in Cedar Rapids. He will also meet with Cedar Rapids residents affected by the floods. Further details of Senator Obama’s visit will follow in the coming days.

As always, post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if I’ve left out any important events coming up this week.

Monday, July 28:

Representative Bruce Braley will hold a series of public meetings:

8:00am                      Bettendorf Congress on Your Corner

                                   Mississippi Bend Area Education Agency

                                    729 21st Street

                                    Bettendorf , Iowa

10:45am                  De Witt Congress on Your Corner

                                   Frances Banta Waggoner Community Library

                                    505 10th Street

                                    De Witt , Iowa

12:45pm                  Maquoketa Congress on Your Corner

                                   Maquoketa Area Family YMCA

                                    500 E. Summit Street

                                    Maquoketa , Iowa

From the Center on Sustainable Communities:

Join COSC at our Site Preparation and Construction & Demolition Source Separation Workshop on Monday, July 28th, 2008 from 4:00 to 7:00 pm at the WDM affordable green demonstration home site – 927 Maple Street in Historic Valley Junction. This will be the first in our series of workshops at the affordable green demonstration homes in the Des Moines metro area.

To RSVP, contact Emily at 515-277-6222 or Emily@icosc.com.

Visit www.icosc.com for details.

Tuesday, July 29:

There is an open house/fundraising reception for Bill McCarthy, Democrat and candidate for Polk County Sheriff, from 4:30 to 6:30 pm at the home of Jim & Roxanne Conlin, 2900 Southern Hills Circle in Des Moines. (Just head west on Park Ave. about a mile and a half west of Fleur Drive; turn north off of Park Ave. on Southern Hills Drive; drive north until you reach Southern Hills Circle.)

Contributions Appreciated:  Checks may be made payable to: McCarthy for Sheriff

Or mail contribution to:

Bill McCarthy for Sheriff,

5201 SE 32nd St., Des Moines, IA 50320

* For questions or to RSVP, contact Linda at 205-4351 *

From the DNR:

BLACK HAWK COUNTY RESIDENTS ASKED TO SHARE IDEAS ON IMPROVING GEORGE WYTH LAKE

MEDIA CONTACT: Jeff Berckes at (515) 281-4791 or jeff.berckes@dnr.iowa.gov or Charles Ikenberry at (515) 281-8753 or charles.ikenberry@dnr.iowa.gov.

CEDAR FALLS – Iowans interested in improving George Wyth Lake in Black Hawk County can attend a meeting July 29 to discuss and review a recent water quality study and its suggestions for improving the lake.

George Wyth Lake is on the state’s impaired waters list because of excess E. coli in the water, which may indicate the presence of disease-causing pathogens. Geese that reside in the park appear to be the primary contributor to this problem.

The study, or DNR water quality improvement plan, looks at the problems and potential solutions for the problems in George Wyth Lake. It is designed as a guide for improving the lake for local resource agencies, partners, stakeholders and residents.

“We are excited to inform people about the study and discuss how the DNR and George Wyth patrons can work together to improve the lake,” said Jeff Berckes with the DNR’s Watershed Improvement program. “This meeting is the first step forward in revitalizing a great Iowa natural resource and we look forward to working with local community members to incorporate their ideas on how to put an effective plan into action.”

The DNR will ask Iowans for their input at a July 29 meeting in Cedar Falls. The meeting will begin at 7:00 p.m. at the Hartman Reserve Nature Center, 657 Reserve Dr.

Staff from the DNR’s Lake Restoration program, Watershed Improvement program and Fisheries and Wildlife bureaus will also be on hand to answer questions.

Those not able to attend the public meeting can receive more information at www.iowadnr.gov/water/watershed/tmdl/publicnotice.html and submit comments on the plan by Aug. 19 via the following ways:

E-mail: jeff.berckes@dnr.iowa.gov

Telephone:        Jeff Berckes at (515) 281-4791

Mail:                 Jeff Berckes, care of Iowa DNR, Wallace State Office Building,

502 E. Ninth St.,Des Moines, Iowa 50319

After gathering Iowans’ comments, the DNR will forward the final plan, also called by its technical name of Total Maximum Daily Load, to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for approval. Local groups interested in helping George Wyth Lake can then use the plan to assist their improvement efforts.

Wednesday, July 30:

From the Center on Sustainable Communities:

Richard Louv Lecture

Hoyt Sherman Place

1501 Woodland Ave.

Des Moines, IA 50309

Wed, July 30

7:00 pm

Richard Louv is an author and journalist focused on nature, family and community. His most recent book, Last Child in the Woods: Saving Our Children From Nature-Deficit Disorder, has stimulated an international conversation about the future relationship between children and nature, and has helped spawn a movement that is now moving into the international sphere. He serves as chairman of the Children and Nature Network, an organization helping to build the international movement to connect children with nature.

Visit http://iowagogreen.com/eventti… for tickets.

Tickets are free but seating is limited and may not be available at the door.

Thursday, July 31:

Barack Obama will hold a town-hall meeting in Cedar Rapids. I’ll post more details about this event when they become available.

One Iowa and Green Drinks are co-hosting a Happy Hour from 5 to 7 pm at the Hillside Condo Penthouse, 1902 Woodland Ave in Des Moines, suite 300 (the building next to the Gateway Market). Suggested donation $20, but no one is turned away. Please RSVP at oneiowa.org.

From Polk County Democrats:

You are cordially invited to attend a wine and cheese reception for John Scarpino, Democratic Candidate for Polk County Supervisor, at the home of Ray and Karen Blase, 913 NE 34th Street, Ankeny

Thursday, July 31 from 5:30 to 7:30 P.M.

Come and hear why John is a candidate for office

and enjoy a glass of wine with old friends.

Saturday, August 2:

From the Sierra Club e-mail loop:

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge – A Priceless Gift

A Presentation and Storytelling

about a very Special Place

When:      Saturday August 2nd, 2008, at 10:00 am

Where:     Urbandale Public Library, Meeting Room A/B

               3520 86th Street Urbandale, Iowa  50322

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is one of America’s premier wilderness

areas.  The coastal plain of the Refuge has been threatened by oil drilling

many times in its 50 year history. Today, threats from Big Oil are greater

than they have been for over two decades.  Come learn about the history,

it’s values, and how you can help protect this national treasure.

This is a story, as well, of indigenous concerns, and about raising the

voices of those urging our government to recognize the rights of indigenous

peoples.

For more information contact: Lois Norrgard 952-881-7282 lois@alaskawild.org

Presented by:

Sarah James, a Neetsaii Gwich’in Athabascan Indian from Arctic Village,

Alaska, raised in the traditional nomadic way. Sarah was one of the first

recipients of the Ford Foundation Leadership for a Changing World Award and

a co-recipient of the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize for her work

with the Gwich’in Steering Committee to protect the calving and nursery

grounds of the Porcupine River Caribou Herd. The Porcupine Caribou Herd has

sustained the Gwich’in for over twenty thousand years.

Lois Norrgard, the Upper Midwest Field staff for the Alaska Wilderness

League. She has worked for the League and Alaska Coalition for the past

three years, continuing to raise awareness about the values and threats

facing our beautiful wild lands in Alaska.

Some places are just too special to destroy for a short term gain – the

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is one of these places

Representative Bruce Braley, who has been working hard to promote passenger rail service to Iowa, has been named to the conference committee on the 2008 Amtrak Reauthorization Bill. A press release quotes Braley as saying, “I’m excited by the opportunity to continue working on the Amtrak bill and to support Iowa’s passenger rail needs.” The full text of that release is after the jump.

That committee will resolve differences between the Senate and House versions of the Amtrak bill. The House approved a bill last month with language likely to help bring Amtrak service to Dubuque and the Quad Cities.

Speaking of passenger rail, this post from the DCist blog lays out the contrast between Barack Obama and John McCain on transit issues. The whole post is worth reading, but one key point is that McCain says closing down Amtrak would be “a non-negotiable issue” if he became president.  

On the one hand, pollster.com’s electoral vote projection, along with Karl Rove’s latest electoral vote projection, show Barack Obama with a huge advantage over John McCain.

Chris Bowers also sees Obama heavily favored to win the presidency, since McCain would need to win every single tossup state to get to 270 electoral votes.

On the other hand, Obama supporter poblano/Nate Silver’s electoral vote projection is much less favorable than pollster.com’s and shows McCain gaining some ground in recent weeks.

Matt Stoller wonders why national polls are basically static even though journalists covering both campaigns agree that “McCain’s campaign is widely considered to be a disaster and Obama’s is considered to be excellent if a bit cold.”

Stoller is also concerned about low funding levels for outside progressive groups, which means that “There is no cavalry in case Obama stumbles and there are no groups that can go negative against McCain.”

Paul Rosenberg notes that “the overall Obama vs. McCain numbers are far behind the generic Dem vs. Rep numbers, which means that overall Obama is not leading the charge, he’s surfing the wave.”

But Open Left commenter NR is sick of hearing complaints that Obama should be further ahead:

Obama is a black man with a funny name who just got out of the most bruising primary we’ve seen in decades, running against a popular war hero who’s worshiped by the media. Frankly, it’s a miracle that he has even a slim lead at this point.

If you’re one of those people who thinks everything happening now is irrelevant, because voters won’t start paying attention until after Labor Day, I encourage you to read this piece by fladem on how polling numbers from July related to presidential election outcomes in past years. He concludes, “most Presidential races are decided in the summer, not the fall.”

How do you see the race shaping up? I am cautiously optimistic, in that I see several plausible scenarios for Obama getting to 270 electoral votes without Ohio or Florida.

Also, a Pew Research Center poll shows Obama leading McCain among Latinos by an impressive margin.

UPDATE: Jonathan Singer notes that the Pew poll is not an outlier; other polling this summer also indicates that Obama crushes McCain among Latinos.

I’ve written before that I think it would be a huge mistake for Barack Obama to select any Republican for a running mate. The next president will appoint at least two and perhaps four Supreme Court justices. Obama is a longtime smoker with a family history of cancer. I don’t want any Republican in line to inherit the presidency.

And I’ve written that I think it would backfire for him to choose a woman other than Hillary Clinton for vice president. Not that I have anything against Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (I would give her serious consideration if she ran for president someday). But I agree with a MyDD commenter who wrote that for Obama to pick Sebelius or Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill would be like Hillary picking Harold Ford as a running mate if she had won the nomination.

I’ve also said I would hate to see Obama choose a corporate-friendly vice president. I already worry that as president he would do too little to rein in the excesses of corporate power in Washington.

Now Politico reports that Obama’s vetting team is floating the name of Ann Veneman, who was Agriculture Secretary during George W. Bush’s first term, with members of Congress. That would be the worst kind of trifecta in my mind.

I can’t understand what Veneman could possibly have going for her. She’s executive director of UNICEF, but who cares? When she was in the cabinet, she didn’t promote sustainable agriculture or sensible health protections.

As the Organic Consumers Association reported when Bush appointed her, Veneman had a long history of standing with corporate interests. When she left Bush’s cabinet, her “vision and commitment” won praise from the American Meat Institute. Politico notes:

The low-profile Republican was close to food and agriculture industries but clashed with farm-state Democrats and environmentalists during her tenure, which lasted from 2001 to 2004.

Maybe Veneman is being mentioned to throw journalists off the scent, or to trick progressives into feeling relieved if Obama chooses a corporate Democrat who’s not “that bad.”

It bothers me that Obama would even allow his team to consider someone like Veneman, even as a diversion. I want the next administration to make CAFOs pay for the harm they cause.

UPDATE: The Nation explains why Veneman would be “a uniquely awful choice” for Obama.

Calling all volunteers: if you’ve got a few hours to spare this weekend, the Obama campaign would love to have you participate in one of the 26 neighborhood canvasses they have planned.

Go here to RSVP.

Most of the door-knocking will be on Sunday afternoon, but a few places will do it on Saturday morning or afternoon.

Here are the places and times where canvassing will happen. I have added the county name next to the city or town:

Ames Canvass (Story County)

Sunday 1 pm

Fort Dodge Canvass (Webster County)

Sunday 12 pm

New Hampton Canvass (Chickasaw County)

Sunday 1 pm

Anamosa Canvass (Jones County)

Sunday 2 pm

Fort Madison Canvass (Lee County)

Sunday 1 pm

Newton Canvass (Jasper County)

Sunday 10 am

Cedar Rapids Canvass (Linn County)

Sunday 12 pm

Guttenberg Canvass (Clayton County)

Sunday 1 pm

Ottumwa Canvass (Wapello County)

Sunday 12 pm

Clinton Canvass (Clinton County)

Sunday 2 pm

Indianola Canvass (Warren County)

Sunday 10 am (I haven’t heard of a Sunday morning canvass in Iowa–maybe you should double-check the time when you RSVP)

Sioux City Canvass (Woodbury County)

Sunday 12 pm

Council Bluffs Canvass (Pottawattamie County)

Sunday 12 pm

Iowa City Canvass (Johnson County)

Saturday 10 am

Waterloo Canvass (Black Hawk County)

Sunday 1 pm

Davenport Canvass (Scott County)

Sunday 12 pm

Iowa City Canvass (Johnson County)

Sunday 12 pm

Waukee Canvass (Dallas County)

Sunday 1 pm

Des Moines Canvass (Polk County)

Sunday 1 pm

Knoxville Canvass (Marion County)

Sunday 1 pm

Waverly Canvass (Bremer County)

Saturday 12 pm

Dubuque Canvass (Dubuque County)

Sunday 1 pm

Mason City Canvass (Cerro Gordo County)

Sunday 1 pm

West Des Moines Canvass (Polk County)

Sunday 1 pm

Winterset Canvass (Madison County)

Sunday 12 pm

Des Moines Canvass # 2 (Polk County)

Sunday 1 pm

If you click the link above to RSVP, you will get more details about where and when to meet up.

Please consider posting a diary here afterwards about your experience. Those are fun to read. You don’t have to include photos–you can just tell the story, like icebergslim did here and clarkent did here.

By the way, John McCain’s campaign website now lists contact information for five field offices in Iowa. It’s not clear from that page whether a sixth office will open in southeast Iowa at some point, or whether field operations for southeast Iowa will continue to be run out of the state headquarters in Urbandale, as they appear to be now.

I reported recently that the Obama campaign has 15 field offices open in Iowa, with two more planned in Cedar Rapids and Iowa Falls. I have since heard that there will also be an office opening in West Des Moines, so the total number of offices in this state will be at least 18.  

Haven’t had a chance to watch the speech, but I hear it was a great one. Meteor Blades says, “By This Foreign Policy Speech Will Future Ones Be Measured”:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Todd Beeton had the bizarre experience of listening to the speech with Rush Limbaugh adding snide remarks from time to time:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

What did you think?

MoveOn Political Action is giving away Vote Obama 2008 buttons:

Dear MoveOn member,

We’re giving away new Obama buttons for free, as part of a massive national visibility campaign. Want one? Click here:

http://pol.moveon.org/obamabut…

After you’ve gotten yours, forward this email on to everyone you know so that they can get free Obama buttons too.

If hundreds of thousands of us wear these wherever we go, we’ll send a strong message that Barack Obama is the candidate with the buzz, momentum, excitement-and sincere support of regular folks across the country.

Thanks for all you do.

-Peter, Patrick S., Laura, Matt and the rest of the team

Want to support our work? We’re entirely funded by our 3.2 million members-no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.

I have to admit that I don’t plan to wear an Obama button, but I am happy to help other Democrats obtain them.

Use this as an open thread to discuss your favorite campaign buttons or bumper stickers. A friend of mine has been wearing a very cool button that says Barack Obama in Hebrew.  

There’s a lot of chatter about John McCain picking a running mate very soon to redirect the media’s attention from Barack Obama’s foreign trip.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s star has fallen because of revelations that she used the levers of state power to try to punish a former brother-in-law. Why do elected officials think they can get away with stuff like this? I suppose the answer is that many do get away with it, but it’s still bizarre that she would abuse the power of her office with so much on the line for her.

If McCain wants to pick a woman, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison seems like the most logical choice.

Earlier this year there was some buzz about former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as a possible VP choice for McCain, but that must be out of the question now. It was Fiorina’s comment about insurance companies covering Viagra but not birth control pills that led to a embarrassing exchange between a reporter and McCain on the same subject. Planned Parenthood Action Fund is using part of that footage in a television ad aimed at women in six states and the Washington, DC area:

If McCain wants a governor, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana or Charlie Crist of Florida seem like the leading options. (UPDATE: Jindal took himself out of the running today.) For reasons I don’t understand, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota doesn’t seem to be mentioned often anymore.

I find it interesting that I haven’t ever seen any suggestion that Mike Huckabee is being considered. He was in Des Moines ten days ago for the Iowa GOP state convention and acted like a team player, urging support for McCain in his speech to Republican delegates. It would seem wise for McCain to at least pretend that he is taking Huckabee seriously, although maybe that would just give Huck’s supporters false hopes.

Some pundits are betting on Mitt Romney because of the money his people can raise. Also, his own presidential run makes him more of a seasoned campaigner and known quantity than some of the governors being mentioned.

Not much news on Obama’s search for a running mate has emerged lately. It seems prudent for him to wait to see what McCain does and how the public and media react before making a decision.

Bill Richardson made some good comments about McCain’s “whining” about not getting an op-ed piece published in the New York Times.

I still find it weird that there’s no sign Wes Clark or Joe Biden were even asked to submit information to the committee that is vetting Obama’s options.

I would be shocked if Obama were seriously considering Hillary Clinton at this point. I still think she wouldn’t be a bad choice for him, but given his small lead over McCain in national tracking polls and some of the key states he lost to Hillary Clinton in the primaries, Obama probably believes he doesn’t need her on the ticket. It’s obvious he would prefer not to have to deal with the Clintons.

UPDATE: Al Rodgers has lots of video and photos of the reception Obama got from American soldiers in Baghdad. Think these people want to be home with their families?

A staple of John McCain’s stump speech has been to play up his military experience and to claim that he, unlike Barack Obama, will be able to win the war in Iraq.

It wasn’t the strongest hand to begin with, because polls show that a clear majority of Americans would rather bring our troops home from Iraq than keep them there indefinitely. Nevertheless, it made sense for McCain, an outspoken supporter of this unpopular war, to try to depict Obama’s plan for Iraq as irresponsible.

Trouble is, earlier this month Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki called for a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops. Obama quickly published this New York Times editorial laying out his plan:

Only by redeploying our troops can we press the Iraqis to reach comprehensive political accommodation and achieve a successful transition to Iraqis’ taking responsibility for the security and stability of their country. Instead of seizing the moment and encouraging Iraqis to step up, the Bush administration and Senator McCain are refusing to embrace this transition – despite their previous commitments to respect the will of Iraq’s sovereign government. They call any timetable for the removal of American troops “surrender,” even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government.

But this is not a strategy for success – it is a strategy for staying that runs contrary to the will of the Iraqi people, the American people and the security interests of the United States. That is why, on my first day in office, I would give the military a new mission: ending this war.

As I’ve said many times, we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 – two years from now, and more than seven years after the war began. After this redeployment, a residual force in Iraq would perform limited missions: going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces. That would not be a precipitous withdrawal.

As Obama pointed out, President Bush and McCain have repeatedly said they would respect the wishes of the sovereign Iraqi government. Well, Al-Maliki told the German magazine Der Spiegel last week that he supports the timetable laid out by Obama.

An unnamed Republican strategist summed it up for Marc Ambinder: “We’re f*cked.”

Couldn’t Al-Maliki have been mistranslated? It doesn’t look that way. NBC’s First Read had this to say on Monday about John McCain’s “rough weekend”:

You know you had a problematic weekend when: 1) one of your top economic advisers/surrogates finally steps down from the campaign after his “nation of whiners” remark; 2) you get panned for breaking CODEL protocol/etiquette by announcing (incorrectly) at a fundraiser that your opponent is headed to Iraq on Friday or Saturday; 3) the prime minister of Iraq tells a German magazine that he backs your opponent’s plan for withdrawing troops from that country; and 4) when the Iraqi government tries to walk back that support, it does so unconvincingly. On the bright side for McCain, his campaign seized on remarks from Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen that withdrawing US troops over the next two years would be “dangerous.”

[…]

Per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Obama has arrived in Baghdad and he spoke with Maliki. The headline after their photo-op: Maliki’s spokesman said afterwards (in English) that the Iraqi vision is for all US troops to be out of Iraq by 2010. And with this news — as well as the Der Spiegel interview, in which Maliki seemed to back Obama’s withdrawal plan — the trip seems like it has already been a PR success for the Illinois senator.

Memo to political journalists: this trip is a lot more than a PR success. McCain simply doesn’t have anything left supporting his determination to keep us in Iraq long-term. Why should Americans hire him as our commander-in-chief?

Now Republicans are trying to change the subject. Talking heads claim recent events in Iraq prove that McCain was right to support the “surge” in U.S. troops (which Obama opposed but voted to fund).

McCain tried to submit his own op-ed about Iraq to the New York Times, but the newspaper’s editors rejected it because it didn’t contain anything new of substance. (You can read the rejected piece here.)

It doesn’t look like McCain believes he can win the election on the Iraq issue, though. I say that because his paid advertising is not using his own campaign’s talking points on Iraq, such as how Obama never talks about winning the war, only about ending the war.

Instead, the McCain campaign has focused on energy policy in some early commercials. On Monday, as Obama visited Iraq, McCain started running a new television ad contrasting himself and Obama on new oil drilling:

Open Left has the script:

ANNCR: Gas prices – $4, $5, no end in sight, because some in Washington are still saying no to drilling in America.

No to independence from foreign oil.

Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?

CHANT: Obama, Obama

ANNCR: One man knows we must now drill more in America and rescue our family budgets.

Don’t hope for more energy, vote for it. McCain.

JOHN MCCAIN: I’m John McCain and I approve this message.

On substance, this ad is absurd. Drilling for more oil in the U.S. wouldn’t come close to replacing the oil we purchase from foreign countries. Oil companies aren’t even leasing all the currently available fields for offshore drilling. Opening up new drilling sites wouldn’t bring any new oil onto U.S. markets for years.

And anyway, who’s been running the country for the last seven and a half years? Obama’s just one senator out of 100, and he’s only been in Washington since 2005. But suddenly he’s to blame for rising gas prices?

At the same time, this commercial may be effective spin for McCain. To the average person, drilling for more oil here in America may sound like a good way to bring down prices and help us be independent from foreign oil. I also think the crowd chanting Obama’s name will be a turnoff for many viewers. If you don’t already support Obama, that probably sounds creepy.

An earlier McCain ad sought to tie Obama’s “hope and change” message to 1960s hippie culture, but I suspect this new approach has more potential for McCain. It suggests Obama only offers empty hope for more energy, while McCain has a plan. (Never mind that Obama has a much better plan for producing clean energy in the U.S.)

When Obama returns from his trip to the Middle East and Europe, he better have a good response ready on offshore drilling and energy independence.

In other McCain diversion news, the sometimes well-informed columnist Robert Novak says McCain may have something else in mind to steal Obama’s thunder this week:

Sources close to Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign are suggesting he will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week while Sen. Barack Obama is getting the headlines on his foreign trip.

If McCain does name his running mate early, I doubt he will choose a dark horse. My money would be on Mitt Romney.

Final note: I don’t have satellite radio, but Keith Nichols mentioned that The Bill Press Show on Sirius 146 is doing a countdown of 101 reasons to vote against John McCain. They give a new reason every morning at 7:25 am (central time). The list of reasons 63 through 101 can be found here. The page is updated daily.

The Nevada Republican Party didn’t want to take that chance. They canceled their state convention, set for next Saturday, because the number of RSVPs from delegates was well below the level needed for a quorum.

This was the second attempt to hold the Nevada GOP convention. State party officials abruptly ended the originally scheduled event in April when Ron Paul supporters outnumbered supporters of John McCain among the delegates.

Nevada is in my opinion the state most likely to go Democratic thanks to Libertarian presidential candidate and former Republican Congressman Bob Barr. Not only are there huge numbers of Ron Paul supporters who don’t back McCain, there is a relevant history. The Libertarian vote in the 1998 Senate race was large enough to hand a narrow victory to Democrat Harry Reid.

Speaking of Barr, he showed up at the liberal Netroots Nation gathering today. Daily Kos user dday landed an impromptu interview and put up this entertaining diary about it.

But last week the Wall Street Journal made a big deal about how Barack Obama supposedly “only” raised $30 million in June.

Today Obama’s campaign revealed that it raised $52 million in June, and the Democratic National Committee raised $22 million the same month. Obama apparently has about $72 million in cash on hand, while the DNC has about $20 million in cash on hand.

At Open Left, tremayne graphed Obama’s fundraising per month this year. February was his best month; he raised $55 million then.

John McCain raised about $22 million in June, but the Republican National Committee has crushed the DNC in fundraising this year, so if you combine the RNC and McCain numbers, their side has slightly more cash on hand.

But guess what? The average donation for Obama in June was $68. That means he has a ton of small donors who are not maxed out. In fact, only $2 million of the $52 million he raised is for the general election (in other words, came from people who had already maxed out at $2,300 for the primary).

I found this analysis by Jerome Armstrong intriguing:

I believe that Obama could have raised $100M in June if that’s what they wanted to do. In fact, there may have been plans to do just that too, but they changed. Notice that just $2M was raised for the GE by Obama, they certainly could have raised a ton more money there if they had wanted, for the GE, at least $20-30M, and combined with the $74M that was raised between Obama and DNC, over $100M.

So, either the Obama camp isn’t as committed to self-funding for the GE, and might still go the route of taking the $84M in public financing (unlikely); or they are holding off their donors to give for the GE later (there are accounts of projecting a $100M month in Sept); or the Obama camp will use July and August to raise big numbers for the GE, as the decision to opt-out was made on June 19th, late in the month for fundraising plans. It could be either of these last two it seems.

Certainly Obama will not take public financing for the general. But could his campaign be deliberately holding big general-election donations off until later this summer?

Reporting a $100 million haul this fall, at the height of the campaign, could hurt Republican morale and drive a lot of media coverage about the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.

Maybe McCain will be forced to pick Mitt Romney for a running mate. He’s disliked by the Christian right but excellent at bringing in cash. Romney-skeptic Jeff Angelo is re-thinking the wisdom of this course for the GOP nominee.

Put your thoughts and suppositions about the presidential candidates’ fundraising in the comment thread.

I have some questions for anyone who participated in the statewide canvass Barack Obama’s campaign organized in Iowa last Saturday.

I would like to hear from as many people as possible, from different regions of Iowa if possible.

If you prefer not to post your answers on a blog, you can e-mail them to me confidentially: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com

1. Did the script the campaign provided for volunteers say anything about Democratic candidates other than Obama?

2. Were you instructed to ask for voter preferences about Democratic candidates for Congress?

3. Were you instructed to ask for voter preferences about Democratic candidates for the Iowa House or Senate?

4. When you recorded voter IDs, were all Obama supporters and/or leaners lumped together in one group? Or were you asked to keep track of which Obama supporters were also backing down-ticket Democrats?

I’m trying to figure out how much emphasis there was on 1) getting the name of down-ticket Democrats out there, 2) tracking voter IDs regarding down-ticket Democrats, and 3) separating Obama supporters into different groups depending on whether the voters were also backing down-ticket Democrats.

Today I ran into a central Iowa college student I know. She asked about my t-shirt, which says Jerry Sullivan, State Representative District 59.

I explained that he’s a candidate in my district for the Iowa House. I asked where she lived, and when she told me I informed her that she lives in House district 60, where Alan Koslow is the Democratic candidate.

Her response was to shrug and say she doesn’t vote for anything but president. I tried to explain that a lot of things are decided by state governments, so she should check that “Democratic Party” box (Iowa allows party-line voting). I don’t know if I got through to her.

My point is that the Obama campaign should help educate voters so that they understand the need to do more than check the box next to Obama’s name.

Also, given Obama’s Iowa caucus strategy, I have some concern that his campaign may work on activating Republicans who will vote for him but against Democrats down-ticket.

You know, the one showing Barack Obama in traditional Muslim dress fist-bumping Michelle Obama, who sports an Angela-Davis-style afro and a machine gun, while the American flag burns in the fireplace?

I understand the point the cartoonist was trying to make, but in my view it was a poor editorial decision to put that on the magazine cover. Put it inside the magazine, where people who read the article about Obama will see it. On the cover it will reach many times more people, most of whom won’t understand the irony.

Pam Spaulding of Pam’s House blend has a guest post up at Open Left with an interesting take on this controversy, sexism and racism.

Speaking of Obama-related artwork, if you’ve got $65,000 burning a hole in your pocket, you can bid on this mixed-media piece called “Obama HOPE” (proceeds go to a charity bringing the arts to urban youth).  

Calling all volunteer foot soldiers: the Obama campaign has been working the phones for a “strategy session” that will be held today, Tuesday, at Dos Rios restaurant (4th and Court in downtown Des Moines) beginning at 5:30.

I don’t know which prominent Iowa Democrats will be there, but if you live in central Iowa and plan to volunteer for Obama this year, it sounds like a good event for you.

UPDATE: In the comments, noneed4thneed says former Governor Tom Vilsack will speak at this event.

In the Des Moines Register on Monday, Thomas Beaumont reports on the contrast between the ground games of Barack Obama and John McCain in Iowa.

As I wrote yesterday, Obama has opened 15 field offices in Iowa, with two more planned.

McCain’s state headquarters in Urbandale is the GOP nominee’s only Iowa office so far, and according to Beaumont, the campaign is still trying to figure out where to locate about half as many field offices as Obama has up and running.

This passage is particularly telling:

Obama spent almost a year campaigning in Iowa before January, building up a staff of more than 150 and a volunteer network of about 3,500. That network had little time to rest after the caucuses.

Obama’s campaign aides have remained in touch with his Iowa supporters, as they worked to turn out delegates to county and district conventions in their battle with Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for national delegates.

Obama’s general election campaign plan in Iowa follows the template that helped him win the caucuses, and which proved effective in his success in many states during the grueling nomination fight with Clinton.

That strategy focuses on having a local presence in as many places as the campaign can support and on keeping an army of 3,500 volunteers engaged, said Jack[ie] Norris, Obama’s Iowa campaign director.

“So much of what we were doing before the county conventions … was bringing up to speed again the Obama network in each of those counties,” said Norris, who was a top adviser to Obama’s caucus campaign.

Here’s hoping that army of volunteers gets deployed in the down-ticket races. They would be a huge asset to Rob Hubler, Becky Greenwald, and our House and Senate candidates all over the state.

cross-posted around the blogosphere

Barack Obama’s campaign held kickoff events in 15 Iowa field offices on Saturday, coinciding with the first statewide canvass of the general election campaign. In addition, the Obama campaign plans to open at least two more field offices in Iowa.

The Des Moines Register published an alphabetical list of cities and towns with Obama field offices. In this diary, I group the offices according to Congressional district.

If 17 field offices sounds like a lot for a medium-sized state like Iowa, keep in mind that Obama had at least 40 field offices here before the caucuses in January.

Also, the Iowa Democratic Party has in effect shut down its “coordinated campaign” for getting out the vote, which means that Obama’s field offices will coordinate GOTV for all Democratic candidates in the state.

Follow me after the jump for details.

Barack Obama’s campaign is doing a statewide canvass in Iowa this Saturday. I just got this e-mail from the Polk County Democrats:

Hello,

I would like to let everyone know about an important day coming up.  Saturday, July 12th, is going to be a statewide day of canvassing.  We need to recruit volunteers to go door to door in their neighborhoods.  People will be canvassing anytime between 10am and 3pm.  It is important to have neighbors reaching out to neighbors about Senator Obama.  Please email me if you can make it!  

In addition, we will be hosting a Potluck BBQ at our new Volunteer Office (Location to be announced soon) after the canvassing.  The Potluck BBQ will start at 3pm and go into the evening.  We will hopefully be announcing the new office location  later this week.  As always with a campaign, we are in need of office supplies!  

Please save the date and thank you!  We are all so grateful for your help!

Joe Kennedy

Regional Field Director- Polk County

Obama for America

847-507-0642 (cell)

An Obama precinct captain forwarded to me an e-mail from Jackie Norris, the Iowa director of the Obama campaign. It looks like there will be about two dozen “Office Opening Kickoff” events across the state on Saturday, all beginning at 10 am and followed by a few hours of knocking on doors.

The full text of Norris’s e-mail is after the jump. It includes links for people who want to volunteer or find an office near them.

If you have the time and the inclination, show up to help at your local office.

Then put up a diary here to tell us about your canvassing experience. First-person accounts like this diary by icebergslim and this diary by clarkent are fun to read and informative.

Barack Obama has released a strong statement on the Medicare bill that the U.S. Senate passed yesterday. John McCain opposed the bill but did not show up to vote against it.

Obama’s statement begins by briefly explaining why he is right and McCain is wrong:

“Today, the U.S. Senate took a major step forward in addressing the needs of seniors and military families all across this nation.  At a time when doctors are facing double digit increases in the costs of providing care, I am proud to have joined with my colleagues to stop a devastating cut in physician reimbursement that would have caused them to shut the door to many Medicare and Tricare beneficiaries.  John McCain has said that he would have opposed this bill, demonstrating yet again that he’s more than willing to put the interests of the health insurance industry over our nation’s 44 million seniors and 9 million uniformed service members,” said Senator Barack Obama.

The release then cites numbers calculated by the American Medical Association on the impact of this bill in 19 states (which just happen to be states contested in the presidential race). For each state, five numbers are given:

-the dollar amount in Medicare payments that would have been lost by December 2009 if the bill had not passed

-the average dollar amount each physician would have lost in reimbursements

-the number of employees who would have been affected

-the number of Medicare patients who would have been affected

-the number of TRICARE patients who would have been affected

For instance,

Iowa:

         Payments Lost by Dec. 2009: $110 million

         Average Physician’s Loss: $17,000

         People Affected:       27,095 employees,

468,637 Medicare patients

41,891 TRICARE patients

The format makes it quick and easy for a newspaper editor or broadcast news producer in any of these 19 states to cast this story in a favorable light for Obama and an unfavorable light for McCain.

The full text of the press release is after the jump.

I saw John McCain’s latest television commercial on the Cotton Mouth Blog:

This ad will run on national cable networks and in Colorado, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Did you catch that?

McCain is paying for television time in Mississippi, a state where George Bush beat John Kerry by 59 percent to 40 percent.

In May, DavidNYC laid out a scenario for how Barack Obama could win Mississippi. I thought that sounded fanciful, but as the Cotton Mouth Blog noted,

John McCain’s campaign doesn’t have enough money to spend in places he’s “not worried.”

In terms of content, this ad is mostly a standard introductory biographical piece. It presents McCain as a war hero in Vietnam and a maverick in the Senate, where he isn’t guided by polls and isn’t afraid to take on presidents and partisans, including in his own party.

The 60-second commercial takes a few not-so-subtle swipes at Obama. It opens with visuals of hippies as the voice-over says:

It was a time of uncertainty, hope and change. The Summer of Love. Half a world away, another kind of love–of country. John McCain.

Get it? “Hope and change” = dirty hippies. I doubt connecting those images with Obama is going to work, though. He was what, seven years old at the time? Anyway, he explicitly rejects the politics of the 1960s in his speeches.

Toward the end of the ad, the voice-over says:

John McCain doesn’t always tell us what we hope to hear. Beautiful words cannot make our lives better, but a man who has always put his country and her people before self, before politics, can.

Don’t hope for a better life. Vote for one. McCain.

I bolded the words that the voice-over speaks with special emphasis.

Can a commercial like this neutralize Obama’s message of “Yes we can” and the “politics of hope”? I didn’t find it convincing, but I’m obviously not the target audience.

What do you think?

The Senate will debate the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act today. Despite the heroic efforts of Senators Chris Dodd and Russ Feingold, all signs point toward capitulation by the Democrats.

Glenn Greenwald again tells you why you should care.

Daily Kos front-pager smintheus explains why the advocates touting this new, improved version of FISA are wrong about the oversight potential of inspectors-general.

The Barack Obama supporters against the FISA bill have been organizing at an incredible pace, but he indicated last week that he will vote for the bill. How far will he go in supporting various amendments offered by Senate Democrats?

I won’t be watching C-SPAN today, but if you are, feel free to “document the atrocities” in the comments (as Atrios might say).

UPDATE: mcjoan has more detail on the key votes that will take place today.

SECOND UPDATE: The FISA bill passed 69-28, with three not voting. McCain dodged another big vote.

The roll call vote is here:

http://www.senate.gov/legislat…

No surprises from the Iowa senators: Grassley voted yes, and Harkin voted no.

Obama voted yes, as expected. Hillary voted no.

This Associated Press story has the worst analysis of a poll I’ve seen in a while (which is saying something): Pet owners prefer McCain over Obama

Click the link to read about an AP-Yahoo! poll that showed pet owners prefer McCain, 42 percent to 37 percent, while people who don’t have a pet prefer Obama 48 percent to 34 percent.

Associated Press writer Randolph E. Schmid asserts that the “pet-owning public seems to have noticed the difference” between McCain, who has many pets, and Obama, who has none. There are some silly quotes from pet owners about the fine characteristics of people who have pets at home.

I’m not a pollster or a statistician, but without even trying hard I can think of five confounding variables that may have more to do with the results than pet owners identifying with McCain because he also has animals at home.

1. Are wealthier people more likely to have a pet? Because that group would skew more Republican than the population at large.

2. The same goes for people who own their own homes, who are probably more likely to own pets than people who are homeless or live in apartments. Remember, many landlords don’t allow pets in apartments.

3. Are married people more likely to keep a pet than single people? Republicans tend to do better among married voters than single voters.

4. The AP piece mentions that dog owners are particularly slanted toward McCain. Well, most hunters own at least one dog, and people who keep a gun at home are more likely to vote Republican than people who live in a home with no guns.

5. Are men more likely to be dog owners than cat owners? The gender gap in voting behavior has been documented for decades.

The AP article doesn’t bring up any most of these potential confounding variables. [CORRECTION: Buried down at the bottom of the piece, the AP article does mention that a higher proportion of dog owners are married, compared to the population at large, and that white people are more likely than black people to own dogs.]

Despite being a dog-lover myself, I didn’t even know that Obama had no pets, and I’m well-informed politically. I doubt that even 1 percent of Americans will make up their minds based on whether a presidential candidate has a pet.

UPDATE: The “mystery pollster” Mark Blumenthal posted his entertaining and informative take on this story. He also links to this Google search showing how many mainstream news outlets ran with the AP’s misleading but “irresistibly cute lead.”

Virginia Senator Jim Webb withdrew his name from consideration as a vice-presidential candidate. That’s a relief from my perspective.

According to Marc Ambinder,

A Democrat close to Webb confirms that a request for documents preceded his declaration to the Obama campaign. The Democrat said that Webb did not want to relive the vigors of a campaign so soon after his election to the Senate.

Like I’ve been saying, Webb does not like campaigning enough to be a good running mate.

Meanwhile, John Edwards will debate “Bush’s brain” Karl Rove on September 26. Some people have interpreted the scheduling of that event as a sign Edwards knows he will not be Obama’s running mate.

I still think Wes Clark would be an excellent choice for Obama, despite the recent dustup over comments he made about John McCain.

Some smart people think he will pick Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, but I still think that it would be a mistake for Obama to choose a woman other than Hillary Clinton.

VP search teams for Obama and McCain have both begun vetting candidates. McCain is said to be considering Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

I tend to agree with Douglas Burns, who wrote that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be a good running mate for McCain.

If McCain is feeling pressure in Florida (a state he must win in order to get 270 electoral votes), he might consider selecting Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Rumors that Crist is gay could be a problem with that scenario. Crist was married to a woman in his early 20s and just got engaged to his current girlfriend.

Put your predictions or opinions about either candidate’s VP choice in the comment section.

cross-posted around the blogosphere

On July 4 I marched with volunteers and staff for Jerry Sullivan, Democratic candidate in Iowa House district 59.

We don’t hear much about state legislative races on national blogs, because it would be overwhelming to keep up with what’s going on all over the country.

But you should get involved on behalf of a good Democrat running for your state’s Assembly, House or Senate. Five reasons why are after the jump.

I haven’t written about Barack Obama’s statement on the Foreign Surveillance Intelligence Act, which the campaign released on Thursday. I have nothing original to say about it.

Glenn Greenwald has the long, analytical version of what’s wrong with Obama’s statement.

Paul Rosenberg has the short, funny version.

While Obama has disappointed progressives lately, you have to admit that his campaign is still sharp on the marketing side.  

DemConWatch reported on Thursday that Obama might accept the Democratic Party’s nomination on Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver. That venue can hold at least 70,000 people. The Pepsi Center where the rest of the Democratic National Convention will be held could only accommodate about 21,000.

DemConWatch reported yesterday that this looks like a done deal, despite the possible logistical problems.

How great will it be to have the Democratic nominee speak in a packed football stadium, while John McCain (not the darling of any GOP base constituency) gives a ho-hum speech in St. Paul? It will force the media to dwell endlessly on the enthusiasm gap between the Democrats and Republicans and on the charisma gap between Obama and McCain.

I love it.

According to this report by Jason Hancock at Iowa Independent,

At least 20 employees of the Iowa Democratic Party have been demoted or fired and a coordinated state-wide campaign was essentially disbanded, replaced by a focus on the presidential bid of Sen. Barack Obama.

Details are sketchy, but the changes could have an impact on November’s legislative races, with field staff that was previously working for down-ticket races now being placed on the payroll of Obama’s presidential campaign and working almost entirely on its behalf.

If this story is accurate, it could be very bad news for down-ticket candidates. Obama’s campaign needs only to win the statewide popular vote, and no doubt its field plan will reflect that reality. They have every reason to focus on increasing turnout in Democrat-rich, highly-populated areas.

However, most of those precincts are in the first, second and third Congressional districts, and/or in urban state legislative districts where Democratic incumbents are safe.

I was hoping that the Iowa Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign would put a special emphasis on getting out the vote in the fourth and fifth Congressional districts, as well as in the battleground districts for the Iowa House and Senate.

Governor Chet Culver recently donated $100,000 from his campaign fund to the Iowa Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign. If I were Culver, I’d want to make sure that turnout efforts focused on building larger Democratic majorities in the state legislature.

Hancock’s article for Iowa Independent notes that

the biggest impact could be on state legislative candidates, who depend on the pooled resources of the coordinated campaign for much of their volunteer coordination and get-out-the-vote programs. Candidates in close races had already paid the initial fee to join the coordinated campaign — up to about $10,000 each — before word leaked out that the Obama campaign would not participate in the joint effort. Money that was paid into the coordinated campaign by candidates will be used to fund the summer canvass and, if financially possible, to extend the canvass through November.  Canvassers will focus on down-ticket races.  The rest of the Democratic operatives deployed around the state will report directly — and exclusively — to the Obama campaign.

The situation mirrors what happened in Colorado, where the Obama campaign announced last last month it would not be joining the state’s coordinated campaign and instead would operate alongside it. The move drew criticism from some Colorado Democrats who fear the party will end up duplicating efforts and squandering resources.

The difference is that Colorado is likely to be much more closely contested in the presidential race.

Obama is heavily favored to win Iowa’s electoral votes. He has never trailed McCain in a head-to-head poll in Iowa. The Democratic voter registration edge has increased substantially in Iowa during the past year, thanks largely to the caucuses in January. Obama has a strong statewide network of volunteers, while John McCain has never built an organization here and barely campaigned here before the caucuses.

I am concerned that Iowa Democrats will lose some close districts as a result of letting the Obama campaign run the statewide field operation. For the first time in my life, a Democrat is running a strong campaign in my own House district 59. As an environmental activist, I know we can’t make headway on a number of important issues unless we get more good Democrats to the statehouse.

I would like assurances from the Obama campaign that they will dedicate substantial GOTV resources to the key legislative districts, and not only to the areas likely to produce the largest number of presidential votes for Obama.

UPDATE: Open Left user Valatan raised another good point:

if anyone wins in Iowa, they owe their victory to Obama’s machine, not the Iowa Democratic party’s GOTV machine.  I wonder if this is quietly happening everywhere, or just in the swing states.

I’ve asked a lot of other state bloggers whether the Obama campaign will coordinate all GOTV in their states. Someone from Missouri wrote back to say that Missouri Democrats would never allow that to happen, because in 2004 the state Democratic Party cooperated with the Kerry campaign, and then the Kerry campaign pulled the plug on all GOTV in Missouri in October.

That makes me even more worried. What if Obama is feeling very confident in Iowa by October, but looks like he may be in trouble in other states? Could his campaign shut down the bulk of his Iowa field operation in order to invest the resources elsewhere?

Whether Obama wins Iowa by 5 percent or 10 percent is of no concern to me, but whether we have 51 or 53 or 55 or 57 Democrats in the Iowa House could make or break a lot of important legislative initiatives in 2009.

Rising gasoline prices are prompting more Americans to seek out transportation alternatives.

In Europe a high-speed rail network links seven countries already. But Amtrak only has 632 usable cars in the whole country.

Unfortunately, John McCain’s hostility to Amtrak over the years blew any chance of building a modern, effective passenger rail system before the price of oil hit record highs:

In 2000, when he was chairman of the Senate Science, Commerce and Transportation committee, McCain killed $10 billion in capital funding for Amtrak. He denounced Amtrak as a symbol of government waste, claiming, “There’s only two parts of the country that can support a viable rail system – the Northeast and the far West.”

He made these claims though Amtrak investment had the support of several notable Republicans. Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi warned that Amtrak “is guaranteed and doomed to failure if we don’t give it an opportunity to succeed. If you don’t have modern equipment, if you don’t have the new fast trains, if you don’t have a rapid rail system, it will not work.”

Tommy Thompson, the secretary of Health and Human Services during President Bush’s first term, was Amtrak chairman when McCain blocked the funding. Thompson said, “The traveling public are sending a distress call to escape our nation’s endless traffic jams and airport gridlock.”

How much better off would we be if we had invested $10 billion in upgrading Amtrak’s equipment eight years ago?

Click the link to read the whole column by Derrick Jackson. While Barack Obama has co-sponsored a Senate bill to increase investment in passenger rail, McCain’s website has no mention of rail in the transportation section.

We can’t afford to let McCain screw up our transportation policy any more than he already has.

If you are interested in passenger rail, I highly recommend these diaries by Daily Kos user BruceMcF:

America, as it turns out, was Made for High Speed Rail.

5 Lessons Learned: America was made for HSR, Pt. 2.

High Speed Rail: The Three Level Program.

Barack Obama’s communications director in Iowa for the general election campaign will be Brad Anderson, who was Governor Chet Culver’s spokesman until May.

The Obama campaign hired Tripp Wellde to be Iowa field director. He was one of the early hires in Obama’s Iowa campaign, arriving in Davenport in March 2007 according to Hotline.

Anyone out there planning to volunteer for Obama in Iowa this summer? Do they have anything special going on for the holiday weekend? I assume they will have a presence in July 4 parades all over the state.  

Barack Obama has figured out that he doesn’t need to go along with the media’s feeding frenzy on Wesley Clark.

The TPM Veracifier team put together a tremendous collection of clips on how pundits have distorted what Clark said on Face the Nation this Sunday:

Media Matters points out the obvious: the manufactured outrage over Clark’s so-called attack obscures the fact that Clark praised McCain’s military service, while noting that military service alone does not qualify him to be commander-in-chief.

The Columbia Journalism Review’s Zachary Roth has a must-read commentary about the media distortions as well.

Mark your calendar for July 9: Moveon.org is organizing events at gas stations around the country in a “National Day of Action for an Oil-Free President.” The main goal is to inform voters that

John McCain’s campaign is run by oil lobbyists,1 it’s funded by oil companies,2 his policies are straight out of Big Oil’s playbook,3 and he won’t solve our energy crisis.

After the jump you can read the full text of the e-mail I received from Moveon.org. It includes footnotes supporting the assertions in that quote.

Fortunately for Barack Obama, Moveon.org isn’t going to be less involved in this election just because Obama made a gratuitous swipe at the group on Monday.

I was happy to see that Moveon.org also defended Wes Clark, who has been getting slammed by the right-wing noise machine. By the way, the Obama campaign went out of its way to “reject” Clark’s reasonable statements about McCain’s qualifications to be president.

This post by Chris Bowers explains succinctly why disavowing Clark was dumb:

No one in the entire country is more important to Democratic credibility on foreign policy than Wesley Clark. No one. And this isn’t just my opinion, it is the opinion of Democratic congressional candidates who requested him.

There are those who think that Obama is being super secret strategic on this one, and playing both the McCain campaign and the media for a fiddle. However, if you really want to be strategic, you need to see the whole board. Going well beyond this media cycle, and even going beyond this presidential election, Republicans score a huge strategic victory if they are able to permanently damage the credibility of the leading Democratic spokesperson on national security.

Paul Rosenberg had a priceless comment in that thread:

Incompetent is you think tactically instead of strategically.

Idiotic is you think tactically instead of strategically about the strongest surrogate you have on your weakest suit in the game.

Getting back to the main point of this post, Moveon.org is right to hit McCain campaign over energy policy. He is worse than Obama on that issue, and the price of gas is at the forefront of voters’ minds this summer.

If you attend or help organize one of the July 9 events, please put up a diary here to let us know how it went.

Although John McCain hasn’t raised nearly as much money as Barack Obama has, the Republican National Committee has far outpaced the Democratic National Committee in fundraising.

The DNC is trying to narrow that gap, but it will need a lot more donations from individuals, because like Obama’s campaign, the DNC is not accepting donations from Washington lobbyists or political action committees.

They’ve designed a t-shirt that says “Democratic Party–Not Paid For by Special Interest PACs or Washington Lobbyists.” If you click this link and donate at least $30, you can get one:

https://donate.barackobama.com…

I am not currently donating to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, because I am dissatisfied with the House and Senate leadership and prefer to give to individual candidates.

However, I encourage everyone to support the DNC, because I believe Howard Dean’s investment in the 50-state strategy will pay huge dividends to our party. Two or three years ago, some skeptics thought it was a waste of time for Dean to invest in the state Democratic parties, but we have won three special Congressional elections in a row this year in Republican-leaning districts.

After the jump I’ve put the full text of the DNC’s fundraising e-mail that went out today.

If you haven’t donated to any Democratic candidates yet in the second quarter, what are you waiting for?

The various major blogs are raising money for some of their favorite candidates for the U.S. House and Senate, and many deserve your support. For instance, Larry Kissell (NC-08) lost to Republican incumbent Robin Hayes by only a few hundred votes in 2006.

If David Mizner, veteran of a hundred blog flamewars between supporters of Barack Obama and John Edwards, can give money to Obama, you can dig into your wallet and give money to some good Democrats today.

I’ve already donated to Rob Hubler and Becky Greenwald, who are running for Congress against Steve King and Tom Latham.

Here is Greenwald’s page at ActBlue, and here is Hubler’s page.

Most Democratic candidates for the Iowa legislature have pages at ActBlue as well. Go to www.actblue.com and search for the candidate’s name.

Or, google the candidate’s name to find a campaign website, where a mailing address will be provided in case you prefer sending checks in the mail.

Just be sure to write the check today. It has to be dated June 30 to count for the second quarter.