Ben Smith reported yesterday at Politico that Barack Obama’s campaign is running radio ads about John McCain’s stand on abortion. His readers reported hearing the ads in at least seven states, including Iowa.

I heard this ad in the car yesterday on two Des Moines-area radio stations: the oldies station KIOA, and once on LITE 104.1. LITE heavily skews toward female listeners. I don’t know about the gender breakdown of KIOA listeners, but that station generally appeals to an older audience, many of whom would remember when abortion was illegal.

Because I was driving, I was unable to take notes on the ad. Audio does not seem to be available at the Obama campaign website.

This morning I was heard a longer version of the same ad on both the LITE station and the oldies station. I was able to take notes, but this is not a verbatim transcript.

UPDATE: Edited out my rough transcript and replaced with the script Smith published at Politico:

   OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.

   VAL BARON: As a nurse practitioner with Planned Parenthood, I know abortion is one of the most difficult decisions a woman will ever make. I’m Val Baron. Let me tell you: If Roe v Wade is overturned, the lives and health of women will be put at risk.  That’s why this election is so important.  John McCain’s out of touch with women today. McCain wants to take away our right to choose. That’s what women need to understand. That’s how high the stakes are.

   ANNCR: As president, John McCain will make abortion illegal.  McCain says quote, “I do not support Roe v. Wade. It should be overturned.” And listen to McCain’s answer on Meet the Press:

       RUSSERT: “A constitutional amendment to ban all abortions. You’re for that?”

       McCAIN: “Yes, sir.”

   VAL BARON: We can’t let John McCain take away our right to choose. We can’t let him take us back.

   ANNCR: Paid for by Obama for America.

The short version of the radio ad does not have the Planned Parenthood nurse practitioner speaking at the beginning. Otherwise, it is identical, beginning where the female voice-over picks up.

A few points worth noting about this ad:

It does not mention Sarah Palin or the fact that McCain picked an anti-choice running mate. The entire focus is on McCain’s record on abortion.

Including the undated audio clip with Russert and McCain is effective, in my opinion. That is more memorable than anything a voice-over could say about McCain’s position on abortion.

I prefer the long version of the ad, because I think it’s powerful to have a nurse say abortion is a difficult decision for women. The anti-choice forces try to make it sound as if pro-choice people celebrate or even encourage “abortion on demand.” However, most Americans understand that whatever their own views about the issue, abortion is not something women take lightly. Complicated personal circumstances lead to the decision.

These ads mark a major shift in strategy for the Obama campaign. Up to now, the campaign has been emphasizing economic issues rather than abortion at its women’s outreach events. Click the link to read about the Obama women’s event I attended a few weeks ago, during which Roe v Wade was only mentioned in passing.

Although Democratic candidates have not often made abortion the focus of paid advertising, I think this is a smart ad. Way too many women wrongly believe McCain is pro-choice. Even my stepmother, who is well-informed politically, thought that.

Now that McCain has played his hand and picked a running mate who appeals to evangelicals seeking to overturn Roe v. Wade, it’s the right time to educate pro-choice women about McCain’s true record on the issue.

The potential downside is that these ads will increase McCain’s support among anti-choice voters. Although McCain scores zero on Progressive Punch’s rankings on abortion as well as a perfectly anti-choice zero on Planned Parenthood’s scorecard, many evangelical conservatives believe McCain does not have a pro-life voting record.

Incredibly, some figures on the Christian right believe McCain has a pro-abortion voting record (see here for more details on that perspective).

This ad makes crystal clear that McCain would make abortion illegal if elected president.

On the other hand, McCain has presumably already energized anti-choice voters by selecting Palin for vice-president. Also, I have yet to see any poll showing that a majority of Americans would like to see abortion criminalized.

Please put up a comment if you have heard these ads, with details about when and what kind of radio station aired them.

MissLaura put up this front-page post at Daily Kos today about why unions matter. She linked to Change to Win, which has all kinds of useful statistics on its website. Click the link to find charts illustrating that “Union Workers Earn More,” “Union Members Have Better Benefits,” “Union Members Pay Less for Health Coverage,” and so on.

If Barack Obama becomes president, I hope he will follow through on promises to make it easier for workers to organize in this country. Replacing some of the corporate hacks George Bush has put on the National Labor Relations Board would be a step in the right direction. The Bush administration has used the NLRB to carry out a “systematic assault on workers’ rights.”

In the good news column, Shai Sachs reported in this post at MyDD that union membership appears to be slowly inching up, reversing a long decline.

But remember, just being in a union doesn’t guarantee that a worker will receive promised benefits. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Maytag retirees are probably going to lose health benefits guaranteed in their last contract. On the other hand, if they hadn’t been in a union, it’s a good bet they never would have had those benefits to begin with.

Post your thoughts about today’s events. The front page of Barack Obama’s website has a link you can click to find ways to help Hurricane Gustav victims.

John McCain has seized the opportunity to distance himself from George Bush and Dick Cheney. They had been scheduled to address the GOP convention on Monday night, but those speeches have been canceled. Instead, Laura Bush and Cindy McCain will speak briefly on how Americans can help hurricane victims.

Meanwhile, McCain is touring the Gulf cost and talking about turning the Republican convention into a service event. Fits nicely with his slogan about “putting country first,” except when you realize that his visit is likely to distract the local officials trying to manage evacuation and disaster relief efforts.

He obviously doesn’t want people to remember that the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall in 2005, Bush was celebrating McCain’s birthday in Arizona.

This diary by Muzikal203 compares how McCain and Obama have reacted to Gustav and both senators’ records on matters related to Hurricane Katrina.

UPDATE: I’ve been reading some disturbing posts about police tactics in St. Paul:

A concise roundup by mcjoan is here.

Glenn Greenwald has a lot more detail, including footage of Amy Goodman, host of the Democracy Now! radio program, being arrested while covering the protests at the RNC. Greenwald observed on Monday:

Beginning last night, St. Paul was the most militarized I have ever seen an American city be, even more so than Manhattan in the week of 9/11 — with troops of federal, state and local law enforcement agents marching around with riot gear, machine guns, and tear gas cannisters, shouting military chants and marching in military formations. Humvees and law enforcement officers with rifles were posted on various buildings and balconies. Numerous protesters and observers were tear gassed and injured.

Lindsay Beyerstein wrote this piece at Firedoglake.

Open Left has published several pieces on this, including this post with photos by Matt Stoller.

It is depressing to see such an overreaction to political dissent.

I apologize for forgetting to post a calendar of events this week.

The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized canvassing in 49 communities on Saturday, August 30. I put the full list of cities and towns after the jump. For details or to sign up for one of these events, go to this page on the Iowa for Obama website. In most areas, there will be two shifts for door-knockers.

In many communities, canvassers will be spreading the word about down-ticket candidates as well as Barack Obama.

Quoting from a post I wrote earlier this week,

If you are planning to volunteer for Obama in a small town, take some time to become familiar with the Plan to Support Rural Communities. AlanF has good advice for canvassers in this diary, and Pete Mohanty lays out the reasons that canvassing is an effective campaign tool in this research paper.

If you volunteer this weekend, consider posting a diary to let us know how it went. I’m particularly interested to hear people’s reactions to Joe Biden  as VP or any of the convention speeches.

Nielsen has estimated that more than 38 million Americans watched Barack Obama’s acceptance speech on Thursday night, and that does not include the 3.5 million people that (according to PBS) watched the event on public television.

I was shocked to learn that

more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final “American Idol” or the Academy Awards this year.

Every night of the Democratic convention, viewership was way up compared to 2004. Hillary Clinton’s speech on Tuesday drew at least 26 million viewers.

Talk about a tough act to follow. John McCain is scheduled to accept the Republican nomination next Thursday evening, when two other networks will be showing NFL games on the first night of the professional football season.

If today is John McCain’s birthday, why did he give us a present?

I strongly disagree with the idea that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is a game-changer for the Republicans.

Hillary Clinton gave a strong endorsement of Barack Obama on Tuesday and will be out campaigning for him this fall. I’m supposed to believe that women who preferred Hillary in the Democratic primaries will flock to McCain, with his horrible record on women’s issues, because a conservative woman is his running mate?

I get the rationale for picking Palin, as laid out here by Chris Bowers and in a different way by Iowa blogger Douglas Burns.

But McCain is staking his campaign on persuading Americans that Obama is “not ready to lead.” I cannot see how it helps McCain to choose a running mate who is younger and less experienced than Obama. Palin has served less than two years as governor and before that was mayor of a town with fewer than 10,000 residents.

At 72 years old, McCain would be the oldest president ever elected. He is also a cancer survivor. Can the Republicans make the case that Palin is ready to lead this country should the need arise?

Supposedly the GOP base will be thrilled to see the anti-choice Palin on the ticket. I read some “mommy blogs” written by religious conservatives and will be checking them in the next few days to see how they react to this pick. (These bloggers tended to favor either Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul.)

I assume they will be relieved that McCain did not choose the detested Mitt Romney. However, I am not convinced these rank and file members of the religious right will celebrate Palin’s selection. They believe women should be homemakers who homeschool their children, and they think feminism and the trend toward working outside the home is undermining “Biblical womanhood.”

No matter how enthusiastically the Republican pundits welcome Palin, I suspect that many social conservatives will feel she should be at home, taking care of her special-needs infant and schooling her older children.

The business wing of the Republican base tended to support Romney in the primaries. Mitt himself is reportedly furious at the way McCain strung him along. Look for the knives to come out if anything goes wrong with Palin–for instance, if she gets tainted by the trial of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens.

I’m skeptical that Palin will neutralize Joe Biden (supposedly because he can’t afford to be seen as a bully). Biden has two jobs: to alleviate concerns about Obama’s lack of experience, and to be an attack dog. The first task will be easier with Palin as his counterpart. As for the second, Biden can ignore Palin most of the time and focus his fire on McCain during the only vice-presidential debate.

Choosing Palin looks like a Hail Mary pass from a candidate who knows he will lose unless he shakes things up in a big way. I’m feeling much more optimistic about Obama’s chances than I did five days ago.

After John Edwards left the race, I always said I’d vote for our nominee but would never donate to either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

All spring and summer, I vowed never to put an Obama sticker on my car and joked that Bleeding Heartland was last bastion of Obamaskepticism in the Iowa blogosphere.

I sent in my $15 tonight to get an Obama-Biden car magnet.

Daily Kos and MyDD user “Angry Mouse,” a dedicated Clinton supporter throughout the primaries, published this moving diary about her journey from being “just a Democrat who will vote for the party’s nominee” to a strong Obama supporter.

Consider this an open thread for discussing anything you’ve done that you thought you’d never do.

Chatter away about tonight’s big events.

I love the Republican whining about Shawn Johnson reciting the Pledge of Allegiance at the Democratic convention. She’s not giving a political speech, she’s saying the pledge! Anyway, the more they complain, the more people will tune in to watch 75,000 Democrats go crazy over the Pledge of Allegiance.

Good for Shawn for taking this step, even though it could very well cost her some endorsements.

UPDATE: Democracy for America is phone-banking tonight (I got a call shortly after 7 pm). Smart move–a whole lot of Democrats are going to be at home in front of their television sets.

Bill Richardson: John McCain may pay hundreds of dollars for his shoes, but we’re the ones who will pay for his flip-flops.

SECOND UPDATE: Switched to C-SPAN an hour ago because I couldn’t take the inane punditry. Whose idea was it to have a parade of retired generals and ordinary people speak after Al Gore? Gore should have been the last speaker before Obama.

THIRD UPDATE: I was distracted by my kids and didn’t realize that Wesley Clark was one of the retired generals who stood on stage, but he was not allowed to say a word. That is atrocious. He is a good speaker, and the Obama campaign is running scared. That’s why the right-wing noise machine went after Clark last month–they wanted to make Obama afraid to use him.

FOURTH UPDATE: I only caught the last 15 minutes or so of Obama’s speech. I like this excerpt I read from earlier:

And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

Great visuals at the end with a packed stadium going wild. I have no idea what that country song was they played after Obama spoke, though.

Some commenters at Open Left pointed out that the Republicans picked a terrible week to have their convention. Monday is Labor Day, and a lot of Americans will have other things to do besides watch the RNC. Next Thursday is the opening night for the NFL, so McCain will deliver his acceptance speech opposite two nationally televised football games. I look forward to comparing the ratings for the GOP convention to our convention.

FIFTH UPDATE: The full text of Obama’s speech (as prepared) is after the jump.

Rumor has it that John McCain will officially announce his running mate tomorrow in Ohio. The Republicans will likely leak the news this evening so that Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at Mile High Stadium’s Invesco Field won’t dominate all the media commentary.

Who’s it gonna be?

I still think “Biden crimps McCain’s VP choice.”

My best guess is that McCain will pick Mitt Romney. The downside is that the ticket can be ridiculed as “Rich and Richer,” but the upside is that Romney is seasoned enough to go head-to-head with Biden in a debate. I can’t say the same for other possible choices such as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal or Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Also, I think I saw one poll suggesting Romney would help McCain in Florida, where recent polls show Obama and McCain within the margin of error.

Some people in the McCain campaign are supposedly pushing for Joe Lieberman to be the running mate. Although he still caucuses with Senate Democrats, he has been campaigning for McCain and using Republican talking points against Obama.

I can’t imagine McCain would dare to pick Lieberman. The beltway media would love the bipartisan-looking ticket, but the Republican base would go ballistic if McCain picked someone pro-choice. Although I don’t like Lieberman, his voting record is solidly Democratic.

The religious right doesn’t even want former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge on the ticket, because he is pro-choice. At least Ridge is a lifelong Republican.

Open Left user leshrac55 pointed me toward this Huffington Post article about how Karl Rove has asked Lieberman to withdraw his name as a possible running mate, but Lieberman declined to do so.

(UPDATE: More rumors that McCain  really wants to pick Lieberman.)

I’ve seen no sign that McCain has ever considered Mike Huckabee for VP, but after watching Huckabee on The Colbert Report last night, I’m more convinced than ever that we haven’t heard the last from him. He’ll be running for president in 2012 or 2016 for sure. I disagree with many of his views, but I give Huckabee a lot of credit for praising Michelle Obama’s speech and pointing out the absurdity of conservative pundit spin about Hillary Clinton’s speech.

Also, I don’t recall hearing any Republican besides Huckabee express pride that this country has nominated a black man for president. On Colbert’s show, he said that while he won’t vote for Obama and wouldn’t like to see him become president, he remembers growing up with racism in the deep South, and he’s glad Obama’s race didn’t prevent him from winning the nomination.

I have heard some speculation that McCain will pick a woman, most likely Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison now that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is mired in scandal.

What do you think?

Hillary Clinton released her delegates earlier today and told them that they could vote their conscience, but she had voted for Barack Obama.

Later she urged the convention to nominate Obama by acclamation, which it did enthusiastically.

This is an open thread for discussing any of Wednesday’s speeches or other events at the convention. Bill Clinton and Joe Biden will be the prime-time highlights. (By the way, one of my neighbors has put her Biden for president yard sign back in front of her house. She is “fired up and ready to go,” as they say.)

After the jump I’ve posted the text of Governor Chet Culver’s remarks (as prepared) to the DNC yesterday. He focused on energy policy, which is certainly among my top 10 reasons for Americans to vote for Obama.

UDPATE: When Bill Kristol idiotically claimed last night that Hillary Clinton gave a weak endorsement of Obama, he noted that she hadn’t said Obama would be a good commander in chief.

Guess what? Today’s theme is national security, and Bill Clinton has already said,

“In Barack Obama, America will have the national security leadership we need. My fellow Democrats, I say to you Barack Obama is ready to lead America…”

Got that, Mr. Kristol?

I forgot to put up an open thread on the convention last night and only watched Hillary Clinton on the web much later. What an powerful and moving speech. I cried, and I wasn’t even one of her supporters during the primaries.

What was your favorite part? Todd Beeton thought the Harriet Tubman reference (“Keep going!”) was “the moment of the night.”

The sound bites grabbed by most media were “No way, no how, no McCain” and her opening line: “I’m here as a proud mother, a proud Democrat, a proud Senator from New York, a proud American and a proud supporter of Barack Obama.”

I thought she did a great job acknowledging her supporters and then asking those who were considering John McCain whether they were in it only for her or for the people she fought for.

Saying it made sense for McCain and George Bush to be together in the Twin Cities next week, because it’s hard to tell them apart these days, was also a classic line.

Talking Points Memo put her whole speech on YouTube.

Talking Points Memo also found this hilarious “bizarro world” video of Republican hack Bill Kristol saying it was a “shockingly minimal endorsement” of Obama.

This is an open thread for your thoughts on Hillary Clinton, Chet Culver, or anyone else who spoke at the convention yesterday.

UPDATE: Here’s an interesting piece by DemFromCT on how Democratic convention viewership is way up compared to 2004.

Also, Dansac tells you what you probably already know: the mainstream media coverage of this convention is horrible. Better to watch all the speeches on C-SPAN or online.

The owners of Agriprocessors have invited Governor Chet Culver to visit the Postville meat-packing plant he strongly criticized in his guest editorial for the Sunday Des Moines Register.

The invitation was part of a guest commentary from Agriprocessors, which the Register published on Monday. In that piece, the company’s plant manager, Chaim Abrahams, denied most of the allegations concerning labor and safety violations at the plant.

Culver’s office said the governor will not accept the invitation.

In related news, someone asked Barack Obama about the federal raid at the Agriprocessors plant when he was in Davenport on Monday, and he was quite critical of alleged use of child labor without mentioning Agriprocessors by name. An attorney for Agriprocessors issued an angry response to Obama’s comments. The company’s owners have donated primarily to Republican politicians in the past.

Apparently the new and improved slogan for Barack Obama’s campaign is “The Change We Need.”

I like that a lot better than “Change We Can Believe In.” People believe in religion. I am not looking to “believe in” a candidate, I am looking for a candidate who can deliver what Americans need.

But I suppose I would say that, since John Edwards frequently used “the change we need” on the stump and in debates.

Admittedly, Edwards put a bit of a different spin on the slogan:

As President, I will make sure the voices of all Americans are heard in Washington. If we fight together, we can get the change we need and America will rise.

Similarly,

Where some of the other Democratic candidates use the language of compromise or are in fact taking money from and in support of the corporate interests who are blocking real change, I think the policies I’ve released and the way I’ve spoken out show that I’m more willing to fight to achieve the change we need.

Obama doesn’t position himself as a fighter, which is probably just as well. It wouldn’t suit his temperament.

Another difference is that Edwards didn’t necessarily portray himself as the agent of “the change we need.” He often used the expression in reference to the forces preventing that change, as in this speech on restoring our democracy:

To actually create change, we should start by telling the truth.

Here’s the truth: the system in Washington is broken. Money is corrupting our democracy. Lobbyists and the special interests they represent are pouring millions of dollars into the system, and stopping the change we need dead in its tracks.

I’ll be the first to admit that “the system is broken” was not as appealing a message for many Americans as the more upbeat “we are the change we’ve been waiting for.” But despite my deep disappointment regarding the recent revelations about Edwards, I still feel that his campaign message was more honest and to the point.

That’s water under the bridge. I’ve got no problem with Obama using “The Change We Need.” Heck, I’m even considering sending in $15 to get an Obama-Biden magnet for my car.

David Yepsen wrote a piece in the Des Moines Register warning that it would be perilous for the presidential candidates to ignore rural America at their parties’ nominating conventions:

I’m not talking about pandering here.  Nor am I talking about just the “farm” vote.  I’m talking about the thousands of Americans who live on the countryside and in small towns.  Some are farmers.  Most aren’t.

They face many of the same problems other Americans face – jobs, health care, senior issues and drug abuse.  They are patriotic Americans – many military people come out of these areas – yet because they live in the hinterlands they often feel ignored.

Lots of Americans feel that way these days but that’s especially true in rural parts of the country, many of which are losing population and vitality.

It would be politically smart for each presidential candidate and party speakers to specifically address the concerns of rural Americans in their convention addresses.  Conventions aren’t the place for “farm speeches” or big policy addresses.  But they are the place where messages and themes can be stressed.   Both parties should reach out to rural voters.

Why? Look at the battleground states.  Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.  All are states with sizeable rural populations.  Yes, some have urban areas in them but the rural vote in each could prove pivotal in tipping their electoral votes.

I agree with Yepsen that rural and small-town voters are a critical swing bloc, and that was one reason I  thought John Edwards would have been a strong general election candidate. I recommend ManfromMiddletown’s piece explaining why “rural voters are the key to the kingdom.”

That said, it strikes me as odd to look to convention speeches for proof of whether the presidential candidates are ignoring rural America.

Let’s examine what Barack Obama and John McCain are doing to reach Americans who do not live in major metropolitan areas.

There is no plan for rural America on the issues page of John McCain’s website. There is only a page labeled “agricultural policies,” which contains nine paragraphs about farming, trade and food policies.

Obama’s website includes a comprehensive Plan to Support Rural Communities. It addresses not only agricultural policies but also economic opportunities, small business development, environmental protection, renewable energy, communications and transportation infrastructure, attracting teachers and health care providers to rural areas, and dealing with the methamphetamine crisis.

But anyone can slap a plan on a website, right? What are the candidates doing to reach out to those small-town voters who feel ignored?

Let’s look at each of the battleground states Yepsen mentions in his column.

Obama had about 40 field offices before the Iowa caucuses and has established 30 offices in Iowa for the general election. His campaign has also organized canvassing in dozens of Iowa towns this summer (see here and here). In August, surrogates for Obama are holding

numerous “rural roundtables” across Iowa to focus on issues affecting small-town and rural residents.

John McCain has six field offices in Iowa, none of them in small towns. I haven’t heard of a lot of campaign activity on his behalf in small towns either.

Obama has already opened 31 field offices in Missouri, which isn’t even one of his campaign’s top red state targets. McCain has six campaign offices in that state.

Let’s turn to Ohio, a state McCain must hold if he is to have any chance of winning 270 electoral votes. McCain has nine campaign offices in Ohio (although there’s no phone or e-mail contact information for these offices on the McCain Ohio website). Obama will have 56 offices supporting his field operation in Ohio, and 44 of those offices are already open.

I don’t consider Minnesota much of a battleground state in light of recent polling. But since Yepsen mentioned it, and McCain may select Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, where do the candidates stand? Obama has 11 field offices in Minnesota, while McCain has seven.

It’s more lopsided in Wisconsin: Obama has 31 field offices, while McCain has six.

Obama built a large campaign organization in Pennsylvania leading up to that state’s primary and has opened 18 field offices there for the general election. The Pennsylvania page of McCain’s website lists a “Pennsylvania & Ohio Regional Office” in Columbus, Ohio and just one local office in Harrisburg. Looks like McCain hardly plans any outreach in that state.

I could go on about Obama’s 35 field offices in Virginia, 22 offices in North Carolina, 26 offices in Indiana and four offices in North Dakota, one of the most rural states.

But you get my point. Not only does Obama have a plan for rural America, he has a campaign presence in dozens of small towns where McCain does not. His staff and volunteers are making contact with thousands of voters who will only hear from McCain through their television sets.

I don’t know how much Obama plans to speak about rural issues on Thursday night, but he certainly can’t be accused of ignoring the concerns of voters outside cities and suburbs.

If you are planning to volunteer for Obama in a small town, take some time to become familiar with the Plan to Support Rural Communities. AlanF has good advice for canvassers in this diary, and Pete Mohanty lays out the reasons that canvassing is an effective campaign tool in this research paper.  

Barack Obama held an invitation-only event in Davenport today and emphasized economic issues:

Obama noted that he was raised by a single mother who sometimes needed food stamps to feed her family. He said he and his wife, Michelle, needed scholarships to attend college.

He said Americans are worried about a souring economy, in which home values are sinking and good jobs are disappearing. He said he would use billions now being spent on the Iraq war to create new jobs rebuilding American highways, adding high-speed railroads and increasing renewable energy sources, such as wind farms.

Two Iowans are among the “everyday Americans” who will address the Democratic convention in Denver. Candi Schmieder from Marengo will speak today, and and Katherine Marcano from Cedar Rapids will speak tomorrow.

Governor Culver will also speak at the convention on Tuesday.

The DemConWatch blog has all the details you need about the convention speakers and agenda.

How much of the convention will you watch? Which speakers are you most anxious to hear?

Feel free to share your closing thoughts about the Olympics in this thread as well.

UPDATE: Hillary Clinton has the quote of the day, referring to the Republican ad trying to stoke resentment that Obama “passed her over”:

“I’m Hillary Clinton, and I do not approve that message.”

SECOND UPDATE: I forgot to mention that sometime between 9:00 and 9:30 pm central time tonight, Senator Tom Harkin is going to introduce former Republican Congressman Jim Leach at the DNC. Should be worth watching! Leach endorsed Obama earlier this month.

I am not a pollster or a statistician, but I have been thinking about some factors that may cause problems with the polling of this year’s presidential election. I welcome input from anyone with expertise in this area.

1. Cell-phone only voters.

I gather from this piece in the New York Times caucus blog that several prominent pollsters now routinely include cellphone samples in their surveys in light of the growing number of Americans who use only or mostly cell-phones.

I also know that a Pew Research Center survey taken in July suggested that Americans who use cell-phones are not that different politically from the population at large. To be more precise, people who use cell-phones most of the time are very much like the electorate at large, while people who exclusively use cell-phones are a bit different, but are also less likely to vote:

The cell-only and cell-mostly respondents in the Pew poll are different demographically from others. Compared with all respondents reached on a landline, both groups are significantly younger, more likely to be male, and less likely to be white. But the cell-only and cell-mostly also are different from one another on many characteristics. Compared with the cell-only, the cell-mostly group is more affluent, better educated, and more likely to be married, to have children, and to own a home.

We know from many years of polling that married people, people with children and home-owners are all groups more likely to vote Republican than the population at large. The Pew study also found that

In the current poll, cell-only respondents are significantly more likely than either the landline respondents or the cell-mostly respondents to support Barack Obama and Democratic candidates for Congress this fall. They also are substantially less likely to be registered to vote and – among registered voters – somewhat less likely to say they are absolutely certain they will vote. Despite their demographic differences with the landline respondents, the cell-mostly group is not significantly different from the landline respondents politically.

Yet as Pew has found in the past, when data from landline and cell phone samples are combined and weighted to match the U.S. population on key demographic measures, the results are similar to those from the landline survey alone.

I get that the phenomenon of cell-phone-only users is probably not introducing large errors in poll findings.

My question is, does the proportion of cell-phone only Americans differ substantially from state to state, or is it a fairly uniform phenomenon across the country? To put it another way, are certain regions of the country, or states with a higher percentage of urban residents, more likely to have larger than average numbers of people who use cell-phones exclusively?

If any swing states have a particularly large number of cell-phone only residents, that would be interesting to know. It could affect the accuracy of polling in that state (depending on the methodology of the polling firm and whether it includes cell-phone samples).

2. Weekend samples for tracking polls.

I was unable to find the archive of Rasmussen’s 2004 presidential tracking poll results, but my memory is that there was a clear pattern whereby Kerry did a little better in the samples taken on weekdays, and Bush gained ground in the samples taken on weekends.

That created the appearance of small movement toward and away from each candidate, with the pattern repeating almost every week in the late summer and fall. I remember reading some speculation that Bush was consistently doing better on the weekends because Democratic-leaning demographic groups are more likely not to be at home on Fridays and Saturdays.

I would like to know whether that is true, and if so whether the major tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) are doing anything to account for this problem.

When we see shifts in tracking polls, we assume voters are reacting to the news of the last few days, but perhaps this is just an illusion created by changes in the pool of people who answer the phone on certain days of the week.

3. Weighting for party ID, race or other factors.

What is considered the best practice in terms of weighting poll results if the sample differs from the demographics of those who voted in the 2004 presidential election?

A Survey USA Virginia poll recently found McCain leading Obama by 48 percent to 47 percent. Commenting on the finding, fladem pointed out that the poll

had 19% of the electorate made up of African Americans.  In 2004 it was 21%.  I have got to believe that African American participation will be higher than 2004.  

I share fladem’s belief, not only because Obama is black, but also because Obama has at least 35 field offices in Virginia, a state Kerry wrote off.

(UPDATE: fladem tells me that there is some evidence that 2004 exit polls overstated the share of the black vote in Virginia.)

We know that registering new voters in groups likely to favor Obama is a crucial part of his campaign strategy. Speaking to David Broder, campaign manager David Plouffe

said that “turnout is the big variable,” and the campaign is devoting an unusually large budget to register scads of new voters and bring them to the polls. “That’s how we win the Floridas and Ohios,” he said, mentioning two states that went narrowly for George W. Bush. “And that’s how we get competitive in the Indianas and Virginias,” two of six or seven states that long have been Republican — but are targets this year.

“That’s why I pay more attention to the registration figures than to the polls I see at this time of year,” Plouffe said. “The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them.”

Should pollsters adjust state poll findings to reflect the Obama campaign’s massive ground game and voter registration drives? How would they do that?

If a polling firm routinely weights for race, should the pollsters assume that the racial breakdown of the electorate will be roughly the same in a given state as it was in 2004? If not, what should they assume?

I have a similar question with respect to party ID. We’ve seen in state after state that the Democratic Party has gained significant ground on the Republican Party in terms of voter registration. In Iowa, there were about 8,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the summer of 2004, but as of June 2008, there were more than 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans. That’s a huge shift in a state where about 1.5 people voted in November 2004.

Are pollsters weighting for party ID, and if so, are they accounting for the big gains in Democratic voter registration since the 2004 or 2006 elections?

4. The disparity in the two campaigns’ ground games.

I know that different pollsters use different screens to separate likely voters from the rest of the sample. One indicator sometimes used is whether the respondent voted in the last presidential election.

But the Obama campaign turned out incredible numbers of first-time voters during the Democratic caucuses and primaries. I laughed at the Des Moines Register’s final pre-caucus poll projecting that 60 percent of caucus-goers would be first-timers, but that turned out to be almost exactly right.

For the general election, the Obama camapign is building a field operation on a scale never seen before.

To further complicate matters, the Obama field operation is enormous in many states where Democrats have not competed in recent presidential races. I mentioned the 35 field offices in Virginia already. Soon there will be 22 field offices open in North Carolina. There are at least 26 Obama offices up and running in Indiana. Even North Dakota has four Obama field offices. Al Gore and John Kerry bypassed all of those states.

Obama’s ground game is going to be much bigger than Kerry’s ground game was even in the swing states Kerry targeted. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to assume that the increased turnout of groups that skew toward Obama (e.g. blacks, voters under 30) will affect the demographic composition of the electorate more in states where Democrats had nothing going in 2004.

Should pollsters do anything to account for this factor? Could they take this into account even if they wanted to?

I know that some of my questions are unanswerable, but I appreciate any insight readers can provide.

(SECOND UPDATE: Thanks to the reader who wrote me to point out that the factors I mention, while not necessarily reflected in polling, may be reflected in online prediction markets that currently show Obama with a 20 percent greater chance of winning the election than McCain.)

The Democratic National Convention is above all about building support for the Obama-Biden ticket. However, I would like to see some progress toward making a case against John McCain this week as well.

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing on the liberal blogs about Obama’s diminishing lead over McCain this summer. Nate Silver/poblano no longer sees Obama as a clear favorite to win the electoral college, while Chris Bowers still sees Obama as a slight favorite, but in a much weaker position than last month. The McCain campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on negative advertising this summer, and it does seem to have brought Obama’s numbers down.

Who on the Democratic side is to blame? Some people think Obama’s a brilliant candidate suffering from an incompetent press shop. Slinkerwink is sick and tired of “mealy-mouthed” statements in passive voice from the Obama campaign. But it seems clear to me that Obama sets the tone for his own press shop. If he wanted them to go for the jugular, they would be doing it.

For most of this summer, the Obama campaign has been running a lot of positive television ads nationwide, while running targeted, state-specific negative ads against McCain.

For instance, here is an ad tying McCain to Ralph Reed and Jack Abramoff. It seems like inside baseball until you learn that it’s running only in Atlanta. Two years ago, Reed lost the Republican primary for lieutenant governor in Georgia because of his ties to Abramoff:

This ad started running in Ohio in mid-August, linking McCain to a merger that may cost thousands of jobs:

Obama has also run a tv ad in Nevada about McCain’s support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site.

There’s nothing wrong with these ads or making a state-specific case against McCain. However, the Obama campaign has failed to create any broad narrative against McCain comparable to McCain’s narrative against Obama (shallow celebrity candidate who’s not ready to lead).

Things may be changing. Last Thursday the Obama team moved quickly to capitalize on McCain’s inability to state how many houses he owns. Within hours, they had this ad up on national cable television. On Friday, they hit McCain again on the same theme with a second ad portraying him as a “country-club” Republican who can’t even remember how many houses he owns:

These ads are a good start, but we won’t be able to milk the house gaffe forever. We need to use other issues and statements to build on key narratives against McCain: he’s out of touch, he offers the same failed policies as George Bush, he’s a hothead we can’t trust with his finger on the button, he’ll say anything to get elected.

If we are lucky, McCain’s future comments or vice-presidential selection will reinforce one or more of these narratives against him. Two years ago, Virginia Senator George Allen fueled further coverage of himself as racially insensitive when, two weeks after calling a dark-skinned activist “macaca,” he lied about whether he had ever used a racial epithet to refer to black people.

However, the Obama campaign can’t count on McCain doing their work for them. The Democratic nominee doesn’t have to deliver this message himself, but I want surrogates from Joe Biden on down to stay on point.

Another strategy is to use ordinary people to portray McCain as out of touch. This ad that ran in Indiana earlier this month is a good start. It contrast McCain’s statements about the economy being strong with comments from average folks in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky about tough economic times.

As I watch the proceedings in Denver from afar, one thing I’ll be looking for is a sign that the Obama campaign is building an effective case against McCain.

UPDATE: Just saw over at MyDD that the Obama campaign is launching this new national ad today. It makes fun of McCain for not knowing much about the economy and “singing the same tune” as Bush:

Not sure whether the humor works in this ad–what do you think?

I wouldn’t say my four-year-old son was following the presidential race closely last year, but he was paying enough attention to understand that his parents were voting for John Edwards. Having been in the car a few times when I delivered yard signs, he also understood that an Edwards sign in front of someone’s house meant that person was also voting for Edwards.

In March of this year, my son (by then five years old) asked me whether we were still voting for John Edwards. I explained that not enough people had voted for Edwards, so he couldn’t be the president. We would vote for someone else, probably Barack Obama. He found that a little confusing, but over time it clicked with him that we were supporting Obama for president.

This evening we had a baby-sitter over for a couple of hours. While she was here, I was getting the kids a snack, and my older son asked her who she was voting for. She said, “McCain.”

He followed up with, “But who are you voting for for president?” She said, “McCain.”

Pause. He turns to me: “Mommy, are we voting for Obama?”

“Yes, we’re voting for Obama, but [baby-sitter] is voting for McCain.”

“Oh.” And he went back to eating pretzels.

Holy cow, is this ad cynical:

I can’t see John McCain gaining a lot of traction with this approach. Joe Biden is not an in-your-face pick for Clinton supporters. Hillary herself said she would consider Biden for any position. This ad is called “Passed Over,” but it’s not as if Obama passed Hillary over for a running mate who was less qualified than she is.

Competitors criticize each other in primaries–big deal. This is nothing worse than what Mitt Romney said about McCain during the Republican competition. This Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton will strongly endorse Barack Obama in front of a packed house in Denver.

What is McCain offering women on any of the issues Hillary championed during the primaries? Zero. And when he picks a down-the-line conservative as his running mate, that will become even more clear.

UPDATE: From CNN:

Clinton’s team immediately dubbed the ad misleading. “Hillary Clinton’s support of Barack Obama is pretty clear,” said Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn’t. It’s interesting how those remarks didn’t make it into his ad.”

There has been a long held myth by the Republican Party that they are more conservative than there Democratic counterparts. They depend on this myth to get them elected in times of economic strife and they depend, as they do on many other issues, on the ignorance and the fear they try to offer to the great people of America in place of real solutions.

 Case in point…Earmarks.

Despite what the Republicans would like to tell you, earmarks, a true mark of the “out of control liberal spending” that Far right wingers try to make us fear, is nearly monopolozed by the Republican Party.

Here is a list of the Republicans in the Senate that have more earmarks than Democratic Nominee Senator Obama. Keep in mind that since the Republicans no longer have the majority, there earmarks are substantially lower than 2006.

1. Senator Chocran, Miss. 837 Million

2. Senator Spector, Penn. 218 Million

3. Senator Shelby, Alabama 427 Million

4. Senator Stevens, Alaska 456 Million

5. Senator Bond, Missouri  454 Million

6. Senator Dominici, New Mexico 246 Million

7. Senator Grassley, Iowa 323 Million

8. Senator Hutchinson, Texas 254 Million

9. Senator Warner, Virginia 252 Million

10. Senator Vitter, Louisanna, 233 Million

11. Senator Smith, Oregon, 151 Million

12. Senator Chambliss, Georgia 167 Million

13. Senator Dole, North Carolina 147 Million

14. Senator Voinovich, Ohio 162 Million

15. Senator Lugar, Indiana, 130 Million

16. Senator Inhofe, Oklahoma 146 Million

17. Senator Bennett, Utah 137 Million

18. Senator Coleman, Minnesota, 172 Million

19. Senator Craig, Idaho 137 Million

20. Senator Isakson, Georgia 160 Million

21. Senator Burr, North Carolina, 116 Million

22. Senator Martinez, Florida 128 Million

23. Senator Coryn, Texas 154 Million

24. Senator McConnel, Kentucky 185 Million

25. Senator Collins, Maine 131 Million

26. Senator Crapo, Idaho, 121 Million

27. Senator Snowe, Maine, 120 Million

28. Senator Allard, Colorado, 100 Million

29. Senator Hatch, Utah, 131 Million

30. Senator Sessions, Alabama, 213 Million

31. Senator Thune, South Dakota, 168 Million

32. Senator Alexander, Tenn. , 124 Million

33. Senator Grahm, South Carolina, 103 Million

34. Senator Ensign, Nevada, 103 Million

Along with three Congressional Republicans that are spending above Senator Obama's 98 Million in earmarks.

Sorry about the long post DMDem, but this needed to be said…

PS.. Tom Latham Ranks 15th in all of congress in Earmarks and Steve King is spending more than “Liberal” Democratic Congressman Bobby Rush of Illinois.

Source: http://www.governmentguide.com/congressorg/power_rankings/power_cats.tt?cat=E&submit.x=3&submit.y=9

Icebergslim brings you pictures and speeches from today’s rally in Springfield.

Hope Reborn brings you lots of clips from journalists and bloggers reacting to Barack Obama’s selection of his running mate: “Glowing Reviews of Vice President Joe Biden: GOP ‘disappointed silence’”

Markos is not happy that Obama “filled a gap, rather than reinforced.”

Paul Rosenberg is disappointed for a different reason, as he explains in “Biden and the Primacy of the Inside Game.”

James L. of Swing State Project looks at what might happen to Biden’s senate seat from Delaware (Biden is up for reelection this year.)

dcprof says “Biden crimps McCain’s VP choice,” and I completely agree.

dday analyzes Ron Fournier’s hit piece for the Associated Press and makes the case that Fournier should recuse himself from covering the presidential campaign or be fired. He makes a strong case, since more and more newspapers rely on wire services like the AP for political coverage, and Fournier considered taking a job with John McCain’s campaign last year.

Steve Benen gives you the gory details on how bad Fournier’s piece is.

Firedoglake also put up an action item on calling for Fournier’s dismissal.

John Deeth’s take on Biden is here. You can find some of Iowa Independent’s greatest hits on the Biden family here.

MoveOn.org is giving away Obama-Biden stickers:

You can get one Obama/Biden sticker for free. For a $3+ donation, we’ll send you 5 stickers. For a $20+ donation, we’ll send 50 stickers. Stickers may take 4-6 weeks to arrive.

If you donate at least $30 to the Obama campaign, you’ll get an official Obama-Biden t-shirt with the campaign logo.

How do you feel about the ticket?

CNN noticed that Secret Service arrived at Joe Biden’s home in Delaware last night, which makes it almost official.

The case for Joe Biden as Barack Obama’s running mate is simple: he’s got a lot of experience at the federal level, particularly in foreign policy. That will reassure voters who may be concerned about Obama’s resume and blunt a major line of attack from John McCain (whose ads have been questioning whether Obama is “ready to lead”).  

But plenty of people in Washington have served in Congress for 20 or 30 years. What makes Biden better than most of them as a running mate? Media scripts about the “gaffe machine” notwithstanding, I submit that Biden’s campaigning ability will be a huge asset to Obama.

I know the stories about Biden putting his foot in his mouth, and I am old enough to remember the Clarence Thomas hearings, when Biden talked too much and didn’t put Thomas on the spot enough.

But he is a much better campaigner than people give him credit for.

Of all the presidential candidates, Biden got the best word of mouth from Iowans who attended his events last year. I don’t think I ever talked to anyone who went to hear him and walked away unimpressed. I wrote about this last summer and again right before the Iowa caucuses.

If you don’t believe me, read accounts by other people who listened to Biden take questions for an hour or more from voters, sometimes just about Iraq and foreign policy but more often about any topic Iowans felt like bringing up.

Biden is not going to need a crash course in federal policy to prepare for the vice-presidential debate, because he knows this stuff inside-out. And despite his reputation for long-windedness, he is able to answer questions in 30 to 60 seconds. In the Democratic candidates’ debates last year, Biden did extremely well despite consistently getting 30 percent to 50 percent less time to speak than the front-runners. He often had the most memorable one-liners from those debates too.

Speaking about the news media’s blackout of long-shot Democratic contenders, Elizabeth Edwards wrote in this op-ed for the New York Times:

And it’s not as if people didn’t want this information. In focus groups that I attended or followed after debates, Joe Biden would regularly be the object of praise and interest: “I want to know more about Senator Biden,” participants would say.

Biden’s speaking style is more aggressive than Obama’s, which will help him be the attack dog Obama needs.

I also agree with Jonathan Singer’s point that Biden’s relative lack of wealth will reinforce the message that the Democratic candidates can relate to ordinary Americans on bread-and-butter economic issues.

Finally, Steve Clemons is absolutely right: Americans are going to love Jill Biden.

Biden wasn’t my number one choice for Obama’s vice president, but he is going to bring a lot to the table.

Most people seem to think Obama’s short list is Biden, Bayh and Kaine, but there’s a lot of late buzz about him surprising us all, perhaps with Hillary.

What do you think? I don’t think he will choose Hillary, because his people stupidly made a big point of saying earlier this summer that he didn’t want her on the ticket. If he chooses her now, it looks like he is acknowledging he can’t win without her, and I don’t think he wants to show weakness.

She would be a good choice, though. The right-wing hate machine has been doing a good job of rallying Republicans around McCain. The argument that choosing Hillary would galvanize conservatives against Obama no longer holds water.

UPDATE: Politico says Hillary was never vetted and Congressman Chet Edwards of Texas is on Obama’s short list. Please don’t let Obama be dumb enough to pick him. If he wants a conservative Democrat, it should at least be someone who puts a state in play. Also, Chet Edwards is not seasoned as a communicator on the national stage.

SECOND UPDATE: A friend of a friend of a source of Matt Stoller says Biden’s family is making plans to be in Springfield this Saturday:

http://www.openleft.com/showDi…

THIRD UPDATE: Marc Ambinder picks up on a chartered flight from Chicago’s Midway airport to New Castle, Delaware…possibly going to pick up Biden’s family?

http://marcambinder.theatlanti…

This morning, Politico reported that John McCain was unable to say exactly how many houses he and his wife own. Click the link to listen to the audio.

Within hours, Barack Obama’s campaign released this ad to run on cable television:

Also the same day, Obama and a bunch of Democratic surrogates pounded on this gaffe, linking it to McCain’s recent statement that he considers people making less than $5 million annually to be “middle class.” (In reality, an annual family income of $350,000 puts an American in the top 1 percent.)

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign tried to change the subject to the fact that he was a POW in Vietnam, the fact that Obama’s house is pretty big, and Obama’s relationship with Chicago businessman Tony Rezko.

A new conservative 501(c)4 organization has produced a hit piece on Obama to run on television in Ohio and Michigan. Ed Failor Jr., former McCain aide in Iowa and executive vice president of Iowans for Tax Relief, is a leading figure in this new group.

The good news for McCain today was that the Federal Election Commission unanimously decided to let McCain cheat by getting out of accepting public financing for the primaries. McCain used the fact that he’d qualified for public financing to secure loans to his campaign in 2007. He also used his public financing certificate to qualify for the Ohio ballot without collecting signatures. Then, once he won the nomination, he weaseled out of his promise. Adam B has more background and analysis of this FEC ruling.

But other than that, I have to agree with JedReport: It was a really bad day to be John McCain.

UPDATE: Seriously, how many houses does the McCain family own? Politico says eight properties, but ProgressiveAccountability.org says at least ten.

SECOND UPDATE: Karl Rove comes up with creative but not convincing spin: making fun of McCain’s housing gaffe is an attack on Cindy McCain, because the homes were bought with her money. So apparently Obama is now attacking McCain’s wife!

I don’t see much evidence that Barack Obama has a problem with women voters. He leads among women by more than Al Gore or John Kerry did at the same time during their own presidential campaigns. The most recent Iowa poll shows Obama leading by six overall but by 12 among Iowa women.

(UPDATE: A new national poll commissioned by EMILY’s list shows Obama leading among women by 12. He leads among women of all age groups, but his narrowest margin is among baby boomer women. Like Digby said, Don’t put baby boomer in the corner.)

Among purveyors of conventional wisdom, however, there is still a perception that Obama has work to do among women voters, and particularly the women who preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

The Obama campaign has been scheduling women’s outreach events to address this issue. Today Governor Kathleen Sebelius is campaigning around central Iowa, and one of her appearances is a lunch in Des Moines specifically geared toward women.

Last Friday I attended a different women’s event featuring Dana Singiser. She served as Director of Women’s Outreach for Clinton’s presidential campaign before joining the Obama campaign as Senior Adviser for the Women’s Vote.

Singiser wrote the Obama campaign memo on John McCain’s “woman problem,” released earlier this week.

Join me after the jump for more.

If you’ve never seen Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius in person, you’ve got plenty of chances tomorrow. She’ll be campaigning for Barack Obama and Becky Greenwald, candidate for Congress in Iowa’s fourth district.

The one time I heard Sebelius speak in person, I was very impressed. Come out to hear a woman who is on Obama’s short list for vice-president and may well run for president herself someday.

All events take place on Thursday, August 21.

A women’s brown-bag lunch event will be held at the Scottish Rite Consistory, 519 Park Street in downtown Des Moines. Doors open at 12:30. Becky Greenwald will speak around 12:45. Governor Sebelius will speak at 1:00. Bring your own lunch and enjoy.

Greenwald and Sebelius will hold a community gathering at 2:45 at Funaro’s Deli and Bakery, 201 N Buxton Street in Indianola. (Side note: Take home some of that wonderful Funaro bread!)

At 4:00, Sebelius and Greenwald will hold a meet and greet with voters at the Becky Greenwald Campaign Headquaters and Obama Campaign for Change Office, 144 E Laurel Street in Waukee.

Finally, Sebelius will kick-off a volunteer phone bank at 5:30 at the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office, 1408 Locust Street in Des Moines.

If you attend any of these events, post a comment or a diary afterwards to let us know how it went.

The Democratic National Committee is putting together a Democratic Change Commission to review possible changes to the presidential nominating process. According to the Associated Press, DNC leaders want to reduce the number of superdelegates and “regain control of the primary calendar”:

A goal of the new commission would be to establish a calendar in which only a handful of states would be allowed to hold nominating contests before March.

This diary at MyDD contains the full text of the press release. Here is an excerpt:

Today the Obama Campaign and the Democratic National Committee announced a proposal to establish a special commission to recommend changes to the Democratic Party’s rules for delegate selection and presidential primary timing for future presidential cycles. The proposal will be presented to the Convention Rules Committee on Saturday in Denver.

The ‘Democratic Change Commission’ will address three issues 1) changes to the opening of the window and pre-window, 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) changes to the caucus system. The goal of the commission will be to ensure that no primary or caucus is held prior to the first Tuesday in March of 2012, with the exception of the approved pre-window states, whose contests would be held during February 2012.

I’m all for reducing the number of superdelegates and strictly limiting the number of states that can hold primaries or caucuses before March.

But if we are going to increase the relative importance of pledged delegates, we need to be aware that the pledged delegate count does not necessarily reflect the will of the people.

Longtime readers know that I am not a big fan of the caucus system even in Iowa, where voters and party officials have a lot of experience with it. I don’t think any of the alleged benefits of caucuses outweigh the barriers to participation that caucuses create.

Furthermore, no state but Iowa can claim any genuine party-building benefit from caucuses, because other states didn’t have multiple campaigns organizing at the precinct level for months.

Many states switched from primaries to caucuses in order to save money, figuring the nomination wouldn’t depend on that state’s vote anyway. As a result, poorly-trained precinct chairs presided over chaos in many parts of Nevada.

Even where caucuses ran relatively smoothly, turnout was unnecessarily limited, and results were skewed.

Consider Minnesota. Probably Obama would have won a primary there, but would he have won it by a 2-1 margin, as he did the caucus delegate count? Seems unlikely.

In Colorado, Nebraska, and several other states, Obama emerged with three or four times as many delegates as Hillary Clinton. Again, he probably would have won a primary in those states, but not by that kind of margin.

Even worse, in Nevada and Texas, Obama emerged with more pledged delegates even though more voters turned out to support Hillary. I would want to change the way pledged delegates are allocated so that no candidate could lose the popular vote in a state while winning the pledged delegate count.

Not only that, one caucus-goer in Wyoming had as much influence over the pledged delegate race as 19 primary voters in California (here is the link). That’s partly because caucuses attract lower turnout and partly because smaller states have a disproportionate number of delegates in the Democratic Party’s current nominating system.

I will be interested to see what this commission recommends with respect to caucuses. My preference would be to ban caucuses for purposes of presidential candidate selection, but I’m sure that a commission created with the participation of the Obama campaign would never agree to that reform. My guess is that they will propose some nominal changes to caucuses but will do nothing to discourage states from holding caucuses instead of primaries.

Before anyone gets upset in the comments, please note that by criticizing the caucus system, I do not intend to excuse the strategic failure of the Clinton campaign to have a game plan for the caucus states.

But if we are going to reduce the number of superdelegates, or require superdelegates to get behind the pledged delegate leader in their states or districts, then we better have a more equitable system for allocating the pledged delegates.

It was wrong for Obama to net as many pledged delegates from a low-turnout caucus state as Hillary netted in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries. She exceeded Obama’s popular vote count by more than 200,000 in each of those states.

His problem attracting women voters, that is.

The memo is after the jump. Its author, Dana Singiser, did several women’s outreach events for the Obama campaign in Iowa last week. I attended one of those and will write it up when I have the chance. She was very impressive.

Singiser thoroughly documents the gender gap revealed by recent opinion polls on the presidential race. Her memo also gives several reasons why John McCain’s stand on the issues would not appeal to women voters.

The just-released University of Iowa Hawkeye poll showed Barack Obama leading McCain by five or six points overall (depending on which voter screen you use) but by 12 points among Iowa women voters.

As always, please send me an e-mail if I’ve left out any important event.

UPDATE: I found out that Kathleen Sebelius will do several events in Iowa on Thursday and added them to the calendar below.

Monday, August 18:

The Obama campaign is holding a Rural Roundtable Discussion with Gary Lamb, a member of the Agriculture and Rural Policy and Action Committee, at the Charles City Public Library (Zastrow Room), 106 Milwaukee Mall St in Charles City at 12 pm.

From the Center on Sustainable Communities:

Iowa Home Crafters is hosting a COSC member open house at 1571 P Avenue in Madrid, IA, Monday, August 18th from 4-7pm.

Free to COSC members and those interested in membership.

Carpool with at least two others and you will be eligible for a door prize.

Visit www.icosc.com for more details.

Representative Steve King will appear at a fundraiser for Mariannette Miller-Meeks at The Drake in Burlington at 6 pm. Bring your sign and/or chicken suit to ask why King won’t debate Rob Hubler, Democratic candidate in Iowa’s fifth district.

Tuesday, August 19:

The Obama campaign is holding a Rural Roundtable Discussion with Lt. Governor Patty Judge at 4:15 pm in the Formal Dining Room at Gentle Student Center, Ellsworth Community College, 1100 College Avenue in Iowa Falls.

The Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission will hold its fourth meeting to discuss the state’s disaster and rebuilding efforts at the Holiday Inn Cedar Falls – University Plaza, 5826 University Ave., Cedar Falls, from 2 to 5 pm.

Steve King is holding four town-hall meetings:

8:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.

King to host Council Bluffs Town Hall Meeting

Iowa Western Community College Aviation Center

211915 Cessna Avenue

Council Bluffs, Iowa

10:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.

King to host Red Oak Town Hall Meeting

US Bank, Community Room

323 Reed St

Red Oak, Iowa

1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.

King to host Creston Town Hall Meeting

Supertel Inn and Conference Center

800 Laurel St.

Creston, Iowa

4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.

King to host Denison Town Hall Meeting

Cronk’s Restaurant

812 4th Ave. S.

Denison, Iowa

Wear your chicken suit outside the event, or bring your video camera inside in case there are any “macaca moments”!

Wednesday, August 20:

The Obama campaign will hold a Rural Roundtable Discussion with Gary Lamb, a member of the Agriculture and Rural Policy and Action Committee, at 10 am in the Benton County Library, 510 2nd Ave. in Vinton.

A second Rural Roundtable with Gary Lamb will take place at 3 pm at the Farley Fire Station, 202 1st St. NE in Farley.

An Obama campaign Rural Roundtable Discussion with state Representative John Whitaker will be held at 6:30 pm at the White Buffalo Restaurant, 100 Hwy 34 E in Albia.

Tom and Ruth Harkin will attend a fundraiser for Becky Greenwald at the home of David and Loree Miles, 1402 Tulip Tree Lane in West Des Moines at 5:30 pm. To RSVP or for further information, call Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or e-mail dillon AT beckygreenwald.com. The minimum suggested contribution level for this event is $100.

Democracy for America is holding another “Night School” session:

Join us on Wednesday, August 20th as DFA Night School returns for an hour with one of the pioneers of the Netroots movement: Zack Exley.

DFA Night School: Online Organizing w/ Zack Exley

Wednesday, August 20th

8:30pm Eastern Daylight Time

CLICK HERE TO RSVP NOW!

http://democracyforamerica.com…

Zack Exley was an early player in the Dean movement and later went on to work as Director of Online Organizing for the Kerry-Edwards campaign. We’ll be talking about what works and what doesn’t when it comes to organizing online as well as what are some of the new technologies poised to revolutionize campaigns of the future.

Night School is DFA’s interactive online training program. Every month Night School brings top campaign experts right to your home at absolutely no cost to you. Simply visit www.democracyforamerica.com/onlineorganizing and sign up to learn how to listen to the call live on either your home computer or over the telephone.

The training will last approximately one hour and will be accompanied by a slideshow you can view online or download and print out ahead of time.

From One Iowa:

Join other political, civil rights, business, religious and civic leaders to learn more about the Campaign for Marriage Equality in Iowa.  You are invited to join One Iowa and members of our Kitchen Cabinet to discuss our current campaign to ensure that all Iowa families are protected equally!

Campaign for Marriage Equality Briefing

August 20

11:30 AM – 12: 45 PM (Lunch Provided) or

5:00 PM – 6:15 PM (Refreshments Provided)

Davis Brown Law Firm

Board Room – 13th Floor

215 10th Street, Des Moines

Kitchen Cabinet

Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Mary Middleton

Eric Tabor

Senator Matt McCoy

Alicia Claypool

Rich Eychaner

Gordon Fischer

Marcia Nichols

Mike Simonson

Suzi Alexander

Connie Ryan Terrell

Ben Stone

Mark Daley

RSVP by August 19 to Brad Clark, Campaign Director at brad@oneiowa.org or 515-783-5950

Thursday, August 21:

The Obama campaign will hold a Rural Roundtable Discussion with Congressman Bruce Braley at 12 pm at Luigi’s Restaurant, 1020 S. Frederick Ave in Oelwein.

Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas will campaign for Obama in several places on Thursday:

1:00 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to speak at a women’s brown bag lunch about pay equity and Senator Obama’s plan to strengthen economic security for America’s women

Scottish Rite Consistory

519 Park St.

Des Moines, Iowa

2:45 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a community gathering

Funaro’s Deli and Bakery

201 N Buxton St.

Indianola, Iowa

4:00 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius and Becky Greenwald to hold a meet and greet with voters

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Office

144 E Laurel St.

Waukee, Iowa

5:30 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to kick-off a volunteer phone bank

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa

Richard Leopold, director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, is holding a public forum at Lake Wapello State Park Lodge in Drakesville. The public forum begins at 6 p.m. with Director Leopold outlining the department’s top 10 priorities, work being done to develop environmental indicators for the state, providing an update on sustainable funding for natural resources and discussion of local issues. Another hour-and-a-half will be devoted to answering questions from the public.

Friday, August 22:

The Obama campaign will hold a Rural Roundtable Discussion with Chuck Hassebrook, a member of the Agriculture and Rural Policy and Action Committee, at 10 am at Lakeshore Family Restaurant, 1520 Lake Avenue in Storm Lake.

A second Rural Roundtable featuring Hassebrook will take place at 3 pm at the Boone Historical Center, 602 Story Street (Use South Entrance) in  Boone.

Steve King is holding two more town-hall meetings:

9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

King to host Spencer Town Hall Meeting

Spencer Library Meeting Room

21 E 3rd St

Spencer, IA

11:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.

King to host Storm Lake Town Hall Meeting

City Council Chambers

620 Erie St.

Storm Lake, Iowa

Ragbrai08 pointed me to this post by Steve Clemons, who reports that Wes Clark will not attend the Democratic National Convention in Denver:

Clark was informed by Barack Obama’s people that there was no reason to come.

General Clark has been given no role of any kind at the convention.

Rubbing salt in the wound even more, the “theme” of Wednesday’s Democratic convention agenda is “Securing America.”

Wesley Clark’s PAC also happens to be called SECURING AMERICA.

I have to agree with Paul Rosenberg, who once noted at Open Left that incompetence is not using your strongest surrogate, and idiocy is not using your strongest surrogate in your weakest suit.

Unfortunately, distancing the Obama campaign from Clark will not just reduce Clark’s influence. It will also embolden the right-wing noise machine. If they manage to get the punditocracy to throw a big, unjustified hissy fit, Obama will run scared. Expect further efforts to discredit strong Democratic voices during the general election campaign and next year if Obama beats McCain.

So, definitely cross Clark off the VP list. Senators Joe Biden and Evan Bayh will speak in Denver on Wednesday night of convention week, fueling speculation that one of them will be Obama’s running mate.

When I wrote about John McCain’s tv ad mocking Barack Obama as “The One,” it didn’t occur to me that “The One” might be code for “the antichrist” to some people.

But apparently there has been some chatter in certain circles about Obama’s similarity to the antagonist of the apocalyptic “Left Behind” novels.

Fortunately, the authors of those books, Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins, spoke out to set the record straight:

“I’ve gotten a lot of questions the last few weeks asking if Obama is the antichrist,” says novelist Jenkins. “I tell everyone that I don’t think the antichrist will come out of politics, especially American politics.”

“I can see by the language he uses why people think he could be the antichrist,” adds LaHaye, “but from my reading of scripture, he doesn’t meet the criteria. There is no indication in the Bible that the antichrist will be an American.”

Well, that settles it, then.

Chicago Sun-Times reporter Lynn Sweet says Delaware Senator Joe Biden is moving up on Barack Obama’s short list:

While Obama’s heart may go towards Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine–his head takes him to a more experienced pick, a Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) or Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Although Biden voted for the bankruptcy bill and was a vocal supporter of Bush’s Iraq War for a long time, his lifetime Senate voting record is much more progressive than Bayh’s. It’s not even close.

Also, Biden is a better speaker and campaigner than Bayh and would be a great attack dog.

Also, we wouldn’t lose a Senate seat if Biden became vice president.

Wesley Clark would be my first choice for VP, but if Obama wants to go with a DC establishment figure, Biden would be an excellent choice. He would do no harm to the ticket and would help Obama with over-60 voters, in my opinion.

Steve Clemons says sources indicate Bayh has a better than 50/50 chance of being chosen by Obama.

Paul Rosenberg reports that a new “100,000 Strong Against Evan Bayh for VP” group on Facebook got more than 1,300 people to sign up on the first day. Early Thursday morning, they were almost at 2,000 members.

Choosing Kaine would be a big mistake, in my opinion. The Virginia community blog for Democrats, Raising Kaine, did a ton to help Kaine get elected, but the writers there are appalled by the way he has governed. Also, it would be too easy for the Republicans to peg an Obama/Kaine ticket as inexperienced.

Then again, Philip Martin of the Texas blog Burnt Orange Report watched a video of Kaine speaking in Texas and had this to say:

I started watching this video not liking Kaine. I already didn’t like him because he (and his staff) were surprisingly and unnecessarily pushy backstage at the TDP convention (where I was volunteering). After reading about his policies, I liked him even less. Suffice to say, I’m really, really unexcited about any prospects of him as Vice President.

But if the only measuring stick is, “how good of a stump candidate for Vice President” would Kaine be, I’d have to say excellent. He can speak in Spanish, delivers red-meat to the base without becoming too partisan or overshadowing Obama, and can honestly tell a real-life story of flipping conservative states red-to-blue.

He’s one of the worst choices for anyone who cares about policy, but is a damn good choice for anyone who only cares about politics.

Over at Raising Kaine, TheGreenMiles quotes Karl Rove to preview “the lines of attack the GOP would use if Kaine were the choice.” Hint: they’d say he was chosen for purely political reasons and lacks sufficient experience.

The New Republic’s Eve Fairbanks thinks Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius is “much more impressive” than Kaine.

Use this thread to discuss whom Obama should pick as a running mate and why.

As always, post a comment if you know of any important event I have left out.

Democratic candidates, send me your public schedules (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) so I can include your events on my calendar.

The Iowa State Fair runs through Sunday. Admission is half-price on the last day. We were there yesterday, and my kids really liked the dog frisbee-catching and stunt show, the Animal Learning Center (where you can see animals with very young babies), the “Little Hands on the Farm” demonstration/play area, and the butterfly exhibit, which I think is new to the fair.

Thursday, August 14:

From the Obama campaign:

Dana Singiser, the campaign’s Senior Adviser for the Women’s Vote, will campaign for Senator Obama in Iowa on Thursday, August 14th and Friday, August 15th, 2008.  On Thursday, Singiser will hold a Women’s Coffee in Sioux City and a Women for Obama event in Council Bluffs.  On Friday, she will hold a Women’s Coffee in Clive and a Women’s Lunch in Boone.  Singiser will discuss Senator Obama’s plan to provide economic security for America’s working women.  

Singiser serves as Senior Adviser to the Obama for America where she advises Senator Obama on the national political landscape for women and leads the campaign’s efforts to reach women voters across the country. Most recently, she served as Director of Women’s Outreach for the Hillary Clinton 2008 campaign.

The details of the events are:

THURSDAY, AUGUST 14TH, 2008

1:00 PM CDT

Women’s Coffee with Dana Singiser

Sioux City Art Center

255 Nebraska St

Sioux City, Iowa

7:00 PM CDT

Women for Obama event with Dana Singiser

Council Bluffs Library

400 Willow Ave

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Also, the Obama campaign will continue its series of “rural roundtable discussions” across Iowa to highlight Senator Obama’s plan to strengthen rural communities and support rural economic development:

THURSDAY, AUGUST 14TH, 2008

Atlantic

6:15 PM CDT

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Rural Roundtable Discussion with Senator Ben Nelson

Farmer’s Kitchen

319 Walnut Street

Atlantic, Iowa

At 3:30 pm, Senator Nelson will speak on Senator Obama’s behalf at the Des Moines Register’s Soap Box at the Iowa State Fair.

Becky Greenwald, candidate for Congress, will appear at the Wing Ding event at the Surf Ballroom, 460 North Shore Drive in Clear Lake. The Wing Ding starts at 5:00 pm and is a Democratic fundraiser for three northern Iowa counties, Cerro Gordo, Winnebago and Hancock. If you hear Becky’s speech, please post a diary here afterwards to let us know how the event went.

Congressman Leonard Boswell, who represents Iowa’s third district, will be speaking at the Des Moines Register’s Soap Box (outside the Register’s Service Center on the Grand Concourse) at 1:30 pm. As part of this new Iowa State Fair tradition, the Congressman will be speaking on the challenges facing our country in these uncertain times and about his work to put us back on the road to peace and prosperity.

Friday, August 15:

The Obama campaign’s Senior Adviser for the Women’s Vote is holding two more events in Iowa:

10:00 AM CDT

Women’s Coffee with Dana Singiser

Home of Sue Simons

1433 NW 105th St.

Clive, Iowa

12:30 PM CDT

Women’s Lunch with Dana Singiser

Home of Becky Lyon

1416 SE Linn St.

Boone, Iowa

Also, Senator Tom Harkin is holding an Obama campaign “rural roundtable” event at 4:00 pm in Carroll at Depot Plaza, 407 W 5th St.

Dr. Steven and Jill Kraus will be hosting a reception at their home for Tom Harkin in Carroll on Friday at 5:30 PM.  Hors d’oeuvres and refreshments will be provided and valet parking is available.  For the full details on this event, please click here.

Also on Friday, Congressman Steve King is holding two town-hall meetings. Bring along your camera to capitalize on any “macaca moments”:

9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

King to host Sioux Center Town Hall Meeting

American State Bank – enter through West entrance (town hall meeting is downstairs)

525 North Main Avenue

Sioux Center, Iowa

4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.

King to host Sioux City Town Hall Meeting

Main Library 529 Pierce St. – Gleeson Room

Sioux City, Iowa

Saturday, August 16:

Rob Hubler will be at AtlanticFest. Contact his campaign HQ at (712) 352-2077 for more details.

Senator Harkin and Mayor Jerry Sullivan, candidate for Statehouse (HD-59), will attend a fundraiser for Sullivan’s campaign from 3:00 to 4:30 pm at the Great Midwestern Café, 1250 NW 128th St in Clive. Catering provided by Great Midwestern Café. Suggested donation $50 (host levels higher). Checks can be made payable to Sullivan for State Representative, 7018 Franklin Ave, Windsor Heights, IA  50322. RSVP to Mike at mmccall@iowademocrats.org or call (614) 561-9117.

1000 Friends of Iowa is holding its 10th anniversary celebration and annual meeting at the Griffieon family farm near Ankeny. The event starts at 9:00 am and runs all day. Click here to register for the meeting or find more details about the event, including a schedule and directions to the farm. Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey will be the keynote speaker. Registration costs $30, and that includes an “Iowa grown lunch.” Other events of the day include:

Presentation – Connie Mutel author of The Emerald Horizon: The History of  Nature in Iowa  Mutel will describe her new book, which offers an opportunity to understand,  reconnect with, and nurture Iowa’s precious natural world. She’ll also discuss  the functions (such as flood-resistance) provided by healthy native communities,  and offer a challenge to restore these functions through reintegrating nature into  Iowa’s working landscape.      1:30     Presentation – Erv Klaas  Dr. Klaas will discuss how reserving valuable cropland for growing corn and  soybeans creates difficult challenges to livestock owners who use riparian zones  for pasture. He will use the Griffieon pasture to illustrate problems livestock  owners face, the technique LaVon is using to remedy the problem and how  improvements to water quality and to our streams depends on a total watershed  approach.       2:00     Tour de Sprawl – Guides: LaVon Griffieon & Stephanie Weisenbach  In the past decade development has encroached upon the farmland next to the  Griffieon’s farm.  We will tour the neighborhood by bus to see the changes made  upon some of the world’s most prime soils.

I am involved with 1000 Friends of Iowa and will attend this meeting, but not in my capacity as desmoinesdem, so don’t expect any talk about partisan politics!

Sunday, August 17:

The Hubler campaign is organizing canvassing all over the fifth district:

Sunday marks our first large door-to-door operation and we need your help to talk to friends and neighbors about Rob’s vision for the future.  Nothing is more effective than having a neighbor drop-by their door with a piece of literature about Rob.  King will be pushing the same tired messages- but with your help we can show Iowa that there is a clear choice in this election and that Rob Hubler is the candidate who will best represent us in Washington; but we can’t win without your help!

Please contact Beth at our Council Bluffs office (712) 352-2077 or email her at beth@hublercongress.com to meet up with supporters near you. Don’t forget to bring two friends to join you!

We will be having canvass parties in the following towns:

Council Bluffs                                   Creston              

Clarinda                                           Sioux City

Spencer                                           Spirit Lake

Onawa                                             Storm Lake

Le Mars                                           Lamoni

Carroll

If you don’t see your town listed, we will be coming your way soon; contact us to help set up a joint canvass in your area.

John McCain’s commercials seek to plant doubt about whether Barack Obama is “ready to lead,” but some seasoned moderate Republicans aren’t fooled. Former Congressman Jim Leach was among the prominent figures who formed “Republicans for Obama” today. A press release from the Obama campaign in Iowa is after the jump. Key excerpt:

“I have no doubt that Barack Obama’s leadership is the leadership we need and that the world is crying out for,” said Leach. “Barack Obama’s platform is a call for change, but the change that he is so gracefully articulating is more renewal than departure.  It is rooted in very old American values that are as much a part of the Republican as the Democratic tradition. There’s an emphasis on individual rights, fairness and balance at home and progressive internationalism.”

You can download the Republicans for Obama conference call here.

The Associated Press has more on Leach’s endorsement:

Leach predicted that many Republicans and independents would be attracted by Obama’s campaign but said his decision to endorse a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time wasn’t easy. […]

“For me, the national interest comes before party concerns, particularly internationally,” said Leach, who has long been an opponent of the war in Iraq.

“We do need a new direction in American policy, and Obama has a sense of that,” he said. “He recognizes that a long-term occupation of Iraq is not only expensive, it’s extremely dangerous to the American interests.”

[…]

Many Republicans argue that GOP candidate John McCain has an edge when the debate turns to foreign policy because of his long experience in dealing with such issues and his record as a career military officer and prisoner of war.

“There’s a distinction between trumpeting issues and realistically looking at effectiveness,” Leach said. “I have never known a time period where the American brand has been in less repair.”

David Yepsen recently opined that “it’s too early to count out McCain” in Iowa, but I see little reason to keep Iowa in the swing state column.

McCain has trailed Obama in every Iowa poll and will be unable to compete with Obama’s ground game here. Now he won’t even have the respected moderate Leach to help him in vote-rich eastern Iowa.

John Deeth has several Republican reactions to Leach’s endorsement of Obama. I had to laugh reading comments that cited this as evidence that GOP moderates are “far to the left” or that conservatives were right to lose faith in Leach.

Memo to Republicans: if Leach were an isolated case, your party wouldn’t be getting crushed by the Democrats in voter registration:

None of the states viewed early this year as competitive in the presidential campaign has swung more decisively than Iowa since Bush’s re-election, based on a comparison of voter registration statistics. […]

In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has increased 16 percent since mid-2004, according to statistics from the Iowa secretary of state.

Trailing Republicans by roughly 8,000 in the summer before the 2004 election, registered Democrats now outnumber them by more than 90,000, according to statistics reflecting changes in July.

GOP leaders would do well to ask themselves why they have lost so much ground to Democrats. But if they’d rather discount Leach as less than a real Republican, that’s fine with me.

The Obama campaign is officially launching field offices in six small towns today, and Senator Tom Harkin is speaking with reporters by conference call about the Obama campaign’s rural outreach. In addition,

the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change is kicking off its series of Rural Roundtable Discussions in Washington and Algona [on August 12]. To find out more, please visit: http://ia.barackobama.com/IAru… To read Senator Obama’s comprehensive plan to strengthen rural America, please visit: http://www.barackobama.com/iss…

The new offices are located in Carroll, Grinnell, Indianola, Iowa Falls, Muscatine and Spencer. They bring the number of Obama field offices in Iowa to 26 (including two in Des Moines).

Since the first wave of office launches last month, field offices have been opened in West Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Creston and Tipton, as well as in the small towns being highlighted in today’s conference call. A press release from the campaign states that four more field offices will open next week but does not say where.

Note that many of Obama’s offices are located in battleground House and Senate districts. For instance, the Grinnell office is in House district 75 and Senate district 38. Iowa Falls is in House district 44 and Senate district 22. The West Des Moines office could help in House district 59.

I am still unclear on what, if anything, staffers in Obama field offices will be doing for the down-ticket candidates. For instance, I don’t know whether voter IDs on candidates other than Obama are being collected, and I don’t know whether there are plans for phone bankers and canvassers to mention the statehouse and Congressional races in their voter contacts. There is a danger that Obama’s GOTV will mobilize supporters who either leave the down-ticket ballot lines blank or (even worse) vote Republican down-ticket.

If you are volunteering in one of Obama’s field offices, I’d love to hear from you about any efforts related to the Congressional or statehouse races. You can either post a diary or a comment on this blog, or send me a confidential e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com).

After the jump, I put a press release announcing today’s office openings as well as a full list of Obama’s Iowa field offices, along with their addresses and phone numbers (if available). I added the name of the county and the Congressional district where each office is located.

By the way, the Iowa page of John McCain’s official campaign website now lists six offices: a state headquarters in Urbandale (which is also a field office covering southeast Iowa), Council Bluffs, Ames, Davenport, Dubuque, and Marion (suburb of Cedar Rapids). I don’t know how many more McCain field offices are planned, if any.

Anyone get to the State Fair today to see John McCain on the soapbox?

Dien Judge covered the story for Iowa Independent.

You can watch the video on this page of the Des Moines Register’s website.

The Register’s write-up is here. McCain threw in a dishonest line with a talking point he and other Republicans have been using this week:

He criticized Democratic candidate Barack Obama’s recent comments about the need for Americans to properly inflate their tires to get the best gas mileage.

“I’m all in favor of inflating our tires, don’t get me wrong. But that’s a public service announcement. It’s not an energy policy,” McCain said to a cheering crowd at The Des Moines Register’s soap box.

Earth to McCain and the entire press corps: Obama released a detailed energy plan last year. It’s easy to find at his campaign website. Obama also gave a major speech on energy policy earlier this week.

But never let the truth get in the way of a Republican one-liner.

I’ve been meaning to write a post about the various dishonest television commercials McCain has produced during the past week. It’s hard to keep up with the man’s mendacity.

Over at MyDD, Todd Beeton has a post about McCain’s latest tv ad as well as a story about  a hard-hitting new Obama radio ad regarding McCain’s role in facilitating the merger of DHL and UPS. If that merger goes through, some 8,000 jobs in Ohio (a state McCain desperately needs) could be lost.

There’s plenty going on, with the Adel Sweet Corn Festival set for Saturday and the Iowa State Fair running now through August 17, but here are a few political events for you as well.

Go to www.barackobama.com for details on his campaign’s events.

Friday, August 8:

Rob Hubler, candidate for Congress in the fifth district, will attend an office opening/Barack Obama birthday celebration in Creston, which the Union County Democrats are hosting from 7 pm to 9 pm. The address is 209 North Maple Street, Creston. Light refreshments will be served.

Barack Obama’s Birthday Party and Phone Bank! (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 4:00 PM

Johnson County Democratic Headquarters (Iowa City, IA)

Join local staff and supporters galore at 625 S. Dubuque St. for an exciting evening in celebration of Barack’s 47th Birthday! We will have cake…

Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Barack Obama’s Campaign for Change (Council Bluffs, IA)

Join us and help celebrate Barack’s 47th birthday! We will enjoy food and the # 47 in all of its forms!

Open House (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Democratic Headquarters (Marshalltown, IA)

We will be meeting at the Democratic Headquarters here in Marshalltown this Monday from 5-9pm to celebrate Barack Obama’s 47th birthday! We will be making…

Celebrate, Communicate, Change! (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Campaign for Change Headquarters (Fort Dodge, IA)

Senator Obama will be turning 47 and we are having a party in his honor. We would like as many people to attend this celebration…

Sunday, August 10

There’s a fundraiser for Rob Hubler in Carroll, which former Governor Tom Vilsack will attend. Reception starts at 6pm; dinner at 7pm. Crossroads Bistro, 12012 Hwy 71 in Carroll. To RSVP for this event, please call the Hubler campaign headquarters: 712-352-2077.

If you were negotiating an employment agreement, you might consider taking an outstanding benefits package in exchange for a lower starting salary or a wage freeze. How would you feel if many years later, in retirement, some of those benefits were taken away from you?

About 3,000 former Maytag workers and family members have received letters from Whirlpool this week informing them that they are about to get cheated. Here’s the background:

Whirlpool Corp. has filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to cut the medical benefits of thousands of retired Maytag workers.

The lawsuit, dated July 24 and filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa in Des Moines as a class action complaint, names the international and local chapters of the United Auto Workers union and three retired Maytag workers as representatives of the class. […]

Whirlpool bought rival Maytag in 2006 for $1.7 billion and assumed the negotiated union contracts and related benefit plans. […]

Whirlpool said in the lawsuit that a contract negotiated between the union and Maytag in 2004 expires on July 31. Whirlpool said it plans to change the retiree medical benefits on Jan. 1, 2009, to bring the benefits in line with the same plan that more than 10,000 current employees, retirees and their dependents have.

I hope that Whirlpool’s lawsuit will fail, but unfortunately, the federal bench is so full of Republican-appointed judges that I don’t expect much in the way of protection for union members.

Barack Obama released this statement today in connection with the controversy:

Des Moines, Iowa – Below is a statement from Senator Barack Obama on the letter Whirlpool sent to Maytag union retirees this week about changes in their health benefits.

“In America, we believe that if you work hard, you should be able to build a better life for yourself and your family.  But today, this American dream is slipping out of reach for too many working Americans. Whirlpool’s decision to cut the health care benefits of 2,200 Maytag retirees is the latest sign that we need to change the broken system in Washington.  

“It’s not right that Maytag’s CEO walked away with a multi-million dollar buyout while the hardworking men and women who built the company lost their jobs and are now facing health care cuts. I’ve had the privilege of meeting with Maytag workers in Newton, and I know they negotiated those benefits in good faith, giving up pay increases and other benefits.  Now it is time for Whirlpool to show good faith to their former employees.  

“As President, I will fight for our workers every day because when our workers do well, America does well.  In the Senate, I’ve fought to protect pensions, and I will continue that fight in the White House.  I will make sure our workers get the fair wages, affordable health care, and secure retirement that they deserve.  And I’ll change our tax code so it rewards companies that create jobs here in the United States instead of companies that ship jobs overseas. I’ll be a President who looks out for Main Street, not just Wall Street and who fights to put the American Dream within reach for every American.”

I certainly hope Obama will work to strengthen labor unions and workers’ rights in this country if he gets elected.

But ultimately, Whirlpool’s action is yet another indictment of our health care system. Even Americans who have good employer-based health insurance can get screwed.

To get more informed about the failures of our current health care system and the benefits of moving to a single-payer “Medicare for all” model, read nyceve’s diaries at Daily Kos or the Guaranteed Healthcare group blog.

At Guaranteed Healthcare, you can also find a list of Democratic candidates for Congress who have endorsed HR 676, which would establish a single-payer health care system.

Barack Obama’s got a layover in Indiana tonight, and some people expect him to select Senator Evan Bayh as his running mate tonight or tomorrow.

I’m not crazy about Bayh as a vice presidential candidate. On the plus side, he’s a former governor and current senator from a red state Obama is making a play for. (Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Indiana would put Obama past 270.) Also, Bayh backed Hillary Clinton for president, so picking him would be a gesture toward uniting the party.

On the minus side, Bayh is not a great speaker and wouldn’t be the best surrogate. Also, his voting record isn’t very progressive, and I’m not just talking about “values” issues; he voted for George Bush’s tax cuts. Maybe that’s what a Democrat representing Indiana has to do, but if Obama wins, his VP could be the front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2016. Bayh isn’t the kind of politician I’d like to see get a leg up in the next competitive Democratic presidential primary.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that we most likely give up a Senate seat if Bayh becomes vice president (unless Democrat Jill Long Thompson pulls of an upset in the Indiana gubernatorial race). If Bayh were an outstanding choice for VP, it might be worth giving up a Senate seat, but that’s not the situation at hand.

If you think I’m too tough on the guy, check out Matt Stoller as he labels Bayh “A Democratic Dan Quayle.”

Jeralyn at Talk Left went over other aspects of Bayh’s record and observed:

Whoever Obama picks, you can be sure polling had a huge amount to do with it. That means he will go for the choice that is most palatable to middle America — not to progressives. We are probably considered “fringe voters”, one step short of being outlaws by any national presidential campaign. They want the heartland.

So the question is, who’s the best centrist for Obama? Bayh seems pretty bland, like mayonnaise. At least he doesn’t go around introducing major, comprehensive tough on crime bills every year. Talk about lowering one’s expectations…..It’s like that game people play at kids’ birthday parties where you have to slide under the bar that gets lowered with every contestant. I just hope we’re not all on the floor by the time November rolls around. Then again, better on the floor than underground, which is where we’ll be if the Republicans win again.

UPDATE: Here are a few views of Bayh’s voting record.

Progressive Punch ranks him in the 40s among the 100 senators on most issue fields. That means Bayh is among the more conservative members of the Democratic caucus in the Senate.

Project Vote Smart lists his votes on numerous individual bills.

And here Project Vote Smart lists Bayh’s ratings from a bunch of different interest groups.

SECOND UPDATE: I forgot to mention that in the past two years Bayh has voted with progressives about 68 percent of the time “when the chips are down,” according to Progressive Punch. The methodology behind the “chips are down” calculations is explained here.

As always, post a comment or send me an e-mail if I’ve left out an important event.

Go to www.barackobama.com to find more details about the Obama campaign events listed below.

It’s World Breastfeeding Week. You can check the La Leche League International site to find events in your area:

http://www.llli.org

Tuesday, August 5:

From the Sierra Club:

Here’s an opportunity for you to speak up in support of clean water.  After passage of the Clean Water Act 36 years ago and passage of a law requiring antidegradation review 21 years ago, Iowa still has no effective antidegradation implementation.  However, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) will be presenting a draft rule package to the Environmental Protection Commission in September.  The department has set up informational meetings across the state in July and August to share information with the public.

These meetings are an opportunity for the public to give the DNR input when making decisions about allowing pollution into our water.  It’s very important that Iowans take advantage of this opportunity and future regulatory processes, including decisions about issuing permits. The dates and sites for this first round of informational meetings are:

August 5, 2008 – Atlantic, IA – Atlantic Public Library – 10 AM

August 5, 2008 – Spencer, IA – Spencer Public Library – 6 PM

August 7, 2008 – Manchester, IA – Manchester Public Library – 10 AM

August 7, 2008 – Washington, IA – Washington Public Library – 6 PM

Attend one of the meetings and speak up on behalf of clean water.  You can find more information about antidegradation, including brief talking points, at http://www.Iowa.sierraclub.org…

Additional information about antidegradation in Iowa can be found at http://www.iowa.sierraclub.org…

Becky Greenwald is holding several public events:

11:45 AM – 1:00 PM

Mason City, IA

Lunch with Becky Greenwald

Chicago Dawg Restaurant

607 S. Taft Ave., Mason City IA

2:15 PM – 3:00 PM

Iowa Falls, IA

Coffee with Becky Greenwald

The Coffee Attic

220 Stevens St., Iowa Falls IA

4:30 PM – 5:30 PM

Fort Dodge, IA

Make a Difference with Becky Greenwald Event

Webster County Democratic Headquarters

33 N. 12th St.

There is an open house reception for Kittie Knauer, candidate for Des Moines School Board, Hosted by Mayor Frank Cownie, Graham Gillette & Mary Brubaker at 5:30 PM at the home of Graham Gillette, 635 Harwood Drive Des Moines

(Two blocks northwest of 42nd St. & Ingersoll Ave.)

Rescheduled Precinct Organizational Meeting #3 (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Tuesday, August 5 at 7:00 PM

Barb Faust Residence (Iowa City, IA)

Wednesday, August 6:

Its Barack’s Birthday (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Wednesday, August 6 at 12:00 PM

Campaign For Change HQ-Ottumwa, IA (Ottumwa, IA)

Come over to the office on August 4th and have some Birthday cake and make 47 calls to celebrate Barack’s 47th Birthday!

Thursday, August 7:

The Iowa State Fair opens and runs for 11 days. My number one tip is to buy lemonade from the Iowa honey producers on the second level of the ag building. They usually charge about half of what the kiosks around the fair charge. For ice cream at the fair, hit the Bauder’s truck that is parked near the ag building.

U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) will attend  a fundraiser for U.S. House Candidate Rob Hubler on Thursday, August 7 at 12:00 p.m. at the Lakeshore Café in Storm Lake, IA. If you live in the area, come show your support for Hubler. You can also donate to Hubler’s campaign or sign up to volunteer through the campaign’s website:

http://www.hublercongress.com

There are two public meetings where you can give the the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR)  feedback on its draft antidegradation rules for water (see above notice from the Sierra Club for more details):

August 7, 2008 – Manchester, IA – Manchester Public Library – 10 AM

August 7, 2008 – Washington, IA – Washington Public Library – 6 PM

Also from the DNR:

Richard Leopold, director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, is holding public forums around Iowa through September, with the next session at the Lake Keomah State Park Lodge near Oskaloosa on Thursday, August 7.

“I’m looking forward to sharing some of the important initiatives underway within the department, but more importantly, I really want to hear from Iowa’s citizens. One thing I am particularly proud of is the rapport that the DNR

has with the public. This is a relationship we value highly within the DNR,” said Leopold.

The public forum begins at 6 p.m. with Director Leopold outlining the department’s top 10 priorities, work being done to develop environmental indicators for the state, providing an update on sustainable funding for natural resources and discussion of local issues. Another hour-and-a-half will be devoted to answering questions from the public.

Thursday, August 7

Lake Keomah State Park Lodge

Near Oskaloosa

If you are pregnant or nursing a baby or toddler, come to the La Leche League of central Iowa monthly evening meeting at 7 pm in the Ashworth Baptist Church (corner of Ashworth and Prairie View) in West Des Moines. All La Leche League meetings are free, and moms and children of all ages are welcome to attend.

Friday, August 8:

Barack Obama’s Birthday Party and Phone Bank! (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 4:00 PM

Johnson County Democratic Headquarters (Iowa City, IA)

Join local staff and supporters galore at 625 S. Dubuque St. for an exciting evening in celebration of Barack’s 47th Birthday! We will have cake…

Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Barack Obama’s Campaign for Change (Council Bluffs, IA)

Join us and help celebrate Barack’s 47th birthday! We will enjoy food and the # 47 in all of its forms!

Open House (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Democratic Headquarters (Marshalltown, IA)

We will be meeting at the Democratic Headquarters here in Marshalltown this Monday from 5-9pm to celebrate Barack Obama’s 47th birthday! We will be making…

Celebrate, Communicate, Change! (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 5:00 PM

Campaign for Change Headquarters (Fort Dodge, IA)

Senator Obama will be turning 47 and we are having a party in his honor. We would like as many people to attend this celebration…

Union County Office Opening & Obama birthday celebration (Barack’s Birthday House Meeting: August 4th)

Friday, August 8 at 7:00 PM

Union County Democratic Campign Office (Creston, IA)

The Union County Democrats Campaign office grand opening will be Friday, August 8th 7-9-PM. Location is 209 N. Maple St., Creston. THis will be a…

Check out the Sweet Corn Festival in Adel (Dallas County). Directions to the event, schedule and parade information are here:

http://partners.adeliowa.org/s…