Another strong and presidential-looking commercial from Barack Obama:

Although I worry again about whether people will sit through a two-minute ad, I think he is in good form here. The message is clear and to the point. The Republicans are hitting Obama with tax-and-spend ads all over the place, so I think it’s helpful for him to explain what’s in his economic plan and that he won’t raise taxes on anyone making less than $250,000 per year.

Also, the relatively intimate setting of Obama speaking directly to the camera is a good antidote to the Republican spin about him being a hyped-up celebrity. Don’t know where this is running.

I also love this new anti-McCain ad called “Parachute,” which Obama is running on national cable networks:

We almost never watch television. Is anyone still seeing Obama or McCain ads in Iowa (I mean other than on national cable news networks)?  

Every dollar you give to good Democrats today is worth a lot more than money you might give them in October. They need to show strong fundraising to get outside groups to help during the final weeks of the campaign.

So no excuses. Write a check dated September 30 and put it in the mail today, or go online to donate by credit card.

In the comments, let us know which candidates you’ve given to this quarter and why.

I’ve donated to the Obama-Biden campaign (still waiting for my car magnet!), Rob Hubler, Becky Greenwald, and several statehouse candidates via noneed4thneed’s ActBlue page called Iowa Blogs Expanding the Majority (Jerry Sullivan, Elesha Gayman, Tim Hoy, Eric Palmer).

Lots happening this week, culminating in the Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner featuring Al Gore in Des Moines on Saturday

Tuesday, September 30:

Today is the last day of the current FEC reporting period. Give money to good Democrats before midnight!

From the Obama campaign in Iowa:

Des Moines, Iowa – Today, at 2:45 PM CDT, Governor Chet Culver will respond to Senator John McCain’s attack on ethanol during his event in Des Moines and discuss why Senator McCain is wrong for Iowa’s economy. During Friday’s debate, and again today during a roundtable in Des Moines, Senator McCain expressed his strong opposition to ethanol subsidies. The details are:

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2008

2:45 PM CDT

Governor Chet Culver to Respond to Senator John McCain’s Attack on Ethanol and Discuss Why Senator McCain is Wrong for Iowa’s Economy

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa  

Des Moines, Iowa – On Tuesday, September 30th, 2008, Iowa First Lady Mari Culver will hold roundtable discussions in Fort Dodge and Carroll to discuss John McCain’s radical health care plan and Barack Obama’s plan to fix America’s broken health care system.

“Affordable health care is one of the most important issues facing Iowa working families, and we are thrilled to have First Lady Culver talk about Barack Obama’s plan to fix our broken health care system,” said Jackie Norris, Iowa State Director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.  “There is an enormous difference between the two candidates when it comes to health care.  Senator Obama has a detailed plan to cover every American and lower costs for every family by $2,500.  This is in stark contrast to Senator McCain, who will do nothing to reduce the number of uninsured.”

First Lady Culver will be talking about health care and other issues important in this election, as well as encouraging Obama supporters to vote early so they can volunteer on Election Day.

Early voting in Iowa has begun and the Obama campaign has set up a voter information hotline, 877 – IA08VOTE, for Iowans to call to get information on how they can vote. Iowans can also visit iowa.barackobama.com for more information.

The details of the events are:

TUSEDAY, SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2008

10:30 AM

Roundtable Discussion with First Lady Mari Culver

Bloomer’s

900 Central Ave #10

(in the Trolley Station)

Fort Dodge, Iowa

1:30 PM

Roundtable Discussion with First Lady Mari Culver

Coffee World/Crossroads Bar and Grill

1012 N US Highway 71 (corner of Highways 30 and 71)

Carroll, Iowa

The Iowa Citizen Action Network is organizing another “listening post” event on health care:

Iowa Citizen Action Network (ICAN) is proud to take a lead role in the “Health

Care for America Now” campaign and we hope you will join us and all the coalition partners in Iowa to make our voices heard!

Health Care for America Now is all about raising this very important question in the minds of the public and in decision makers: Do we want a health care system where everyone has responsibility to ensure access for all Americans – individuals, employers, our communities, and our government?  Or do we want to continue with a system that says – “You’re all on your own to deal with insurance companies.”

We’ve been doing just that this summer, and we’re excited to bring this campaign to cities all around Iowa.  Take a look and see where you can join us.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

HEALTH CARE COVERAGE LISTENING POSTS

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have you been struggling with your health insurance coverage?  Do you find yourself paying more for less coverage every year?  Have you been denied coverage because of pre-existing conditions?  Have you been dropped from your coverage and aren’t sure how to fight back?  Do you have a family member or neighbor who is struggling?

Here’s your chance to let your elected representatives know what you’re going through, and what you think they should do about it.

September 30th, 6:30-7:30

Cedar Rapids, IA

LODGE 831 MACHINISTS UNION HALL

222 PROSPECT PLACE SW

From the Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation:

Please attend forums on

Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including INHF) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund.

So you can make your voice heard on this important issue, this e-mail provides background information on the forums, a list of forum dates & locations, and pre-registration instructions.

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

About the forums

Ten candidate forums scattered throughout the state provide a chance for citizens and legislators/candidates to discuss this legislation together. Please consider attending the forum nearest you to learn more about this proposal, show your legislators/candidates that Iowans care about conservation funding, and promote passing the needed legislation for this fund during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.

How to pre-register & attend: Find the forum nearest you in the list below and then pre-register at http://conservation-candidate-… NOTE: Pre-registration is critical because individual events may be canceled if pre-registration numbers are low.

Schedule of Forums

Ames, 9/30/2008 @ 6:30 PM

Ames Public Library (515 Douglas Ave)

Fort Dodge, 10/1/2008 @ 7 PM

Iowa Central Community College (One Triton Circle)

Muscatine, 10/4/2008 @ 9AM

the Student Center at Muscatine Community College, (152 Colorado St)

Mason City, 10/6/2008 @ 6:30 PM

Mason City Library (225 Second St. SE)

Wednesday, October 1:

There’s a candidate forum on the sustainable funding initiative at Iowa Central Community College in Fort Dodge at 7 pm (see above for details)

Thursday, October 2:

Gwen Ifill moderates the vice-presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, which will start at 8 pm central time. Pop some popcorn and enjoy the show!

Friday, October 3:

From One Iowa:

  Pappajohn Center

1200 Locust

Des Moines, IA 50309

515-288-8586

Date:   10/3/2008 from 5:30 pm – 8:00 pm (Central Time)

Hosted By:   One Iowa

RSVP by:   October 3, 2008 at 5:30 pm (Central Time)

Join Us For The First Annual Sweet Equality

Join us for the First Annual Sweet Equality! Professional chefs, local celebrities, and businesses will come together to show off their skills in the name of Equality! To celebrate Iowa’s rich history of equality, you are invited to a fun-filled evening of dessert competition, wine tasting, friends and music!

Amateur Sweet Equality competitors include local celebrities such as First Lady Christie Vilsack, Tracy Levine, Christine Hensley, and a special treat from Meredith test kitchen.

Wine tasting from local Iowa Wineries and live entertainment, from local artists will round out the festivities.

The event costs $35. RSVP to Scott@oneiowa.org or call 515-288-4019 extension 207

Saturday, October 4:

The Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner will be held in Des Moines. Al Gore will be the featured speaker. Tickets are available at www.iowademocrats.org or by calling (515) 974-1691. You can also get tickets that do not include dinner.

There’s a candidate forum on the sustainable funding initiative in Muscatine at 9 am at the Student Center at Muscatine Community College, (152 Colorado St). See above for details.

Capital City Pride events will be held on October 4 and 5 in Des Moines. For details about the schedule and volunteer opportunities, go to www.oneiowa.org.

There will be a Prairie Seed Harvest at Marietta Sand Prairie State Preserve, near Albion in Marshall County, Oct 4, beginning at 1 p.m. All ages are welcome to help hand-harvest native prairie seeds on the preserve, to be planted on a recently-acquired addition.  Learn about prairie from your fellow volunteers, many of whom will be prairie experts. This is a casual day: drop in and stay as long as you like. For more details, contact the Marshall County Conservation Board at 641-752-5490.

Sunday, October 5:

Capital City Pride events continue in Des Moines.

From the Iowa Environmental Council’s calendar or events:

 Farm Crawl 2008

October 5, Central Iowa

Enjoy a leisurely autumn day, 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., “crawling” between six unique small-family farms in south-central Iowa – one hour south of DM Tour the farms, visit the animals, meet the farmers, sample the goodies, purchase locally grown products and have fun in the beautiful Iowa countryside. While at the farms, enter to win a basket of goodies assembled with wonderful items from each farm. Visit the Farm Crawl 2008 website at http://www.farmcrawl.com to learn more about the farms.  A map can be found at http://www.farmcrawl.com/maps….

Submitted by Matt Russell

* * * * * * * * * *

Bike Ride and Trail Celebration

Celebrate a new trail segment: Join us on Sunday, Oct. 5 for a bike ride and celebration of progress being made on the Ankeny-Woodward Trail. Riders should gather at the Ankeny trailhead at 11:30 a.m. The free, 12-mile ride (one way) begins in Ankeny at noon and ends at the Heart of Iowa trailhead in Slater.  There, at 2 p.m., riders and others can enjoy a program, entertainment, refreshments and door prizes. Riders should gather in at the Ankeny trailhead at 11:30 a.m. This ride covers part of 18 miles of newly paved trail between Ankeny and Madrid. If another $1 million can be raised in time, partners can complete the final four miles to Woodward (including a spectacular ½-mile bridge) by 2010. For details or directions, visit www.inhf.org.

Submitted by Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation

Tuesday, October 7:

From Becky Greenwald’s campaign:

Please join First Lady Mari Culver & Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-at large) for a Women’s Reception to benefit Becky Greenwald, Democratic Candidate for Congress (IA-04)

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

5:30 PM Pre-Reception

6:00 PM General Reception

at the home of Toni Urban, 214 Foster Drive, Des Moines, IA

Contribution Levels:

Host:  $1,000  Sponsor:  $500    Friend:  $250    Supporter:  $100

(Host, Sponsor and Friend levels include admission to pre-reception and photo opportunity with Rep. Herseth-Sandlin)

General Admission: $30

To RSVP or for further information, please contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.  

Join Whiterock Conservancy’s land stewardship crew in collecting prairie and savanna seeds for use in restoration projects. Learn to identify grassland plant species, learn their habitats, and assist in collecting the seeds for the future. Join the collection crew just east of Coon Rapids on: October 7 and October 12. Help collect today so that we may plant tomorrow. Contact WRC’s ecologist, Elizabeth Hill to sign up for prairie seed collection forays: elizabeth@whiterockconservancy.org.

The Obama campaign continues to hold events promoting early voting, and former Missouri Senator Jean Carnahan will tour southern Iowa with this message today and tomorrow:

Des Moines – On Monday and Tuesday, former Missouri Senator Jean Carnahan will travel to South-central and Southeast Iowa to hold town hall meetings on the issues facing Iowans in this election and to talk about the importance of early voting.

“With so much at stake in this election we are thrilled to have Senator Carnahan back in Iowa to talk about Barack Obama’s commitment to issues important to Iowans and to encourage Iowans to early vote,” said Jackie Norris, Iowa State Director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

Senator Carnahan will be talking about issues important in this election, as well as encouraging Obama supporters to vote early so they can volunteer on election day.

Early voting in Iowa has begun and the Obama campaign has set up a voter information hotline, 877 – IA08VOTE, for Iowans to call to get information on how they can vote. Iowans can also visit iowa.barackobama.com for more information.

DETAILS FOR SENATOR CARNAHAN’S STOPS:

MONDAY, September 29th

Creston Early Vote for Change brown bag lunch

11:30 AM

209 N. Maple St.

Creston, IA

Lamoni Early Vote for Change townhall meeting

1:30 PM

Linden St. Coffee House

104 S. Linden St.

Lamoni, IA

Centerville Early Vote for Change townhall meeting

4:00 PM

Tangleberries

104 West Jackson St.

Centerville, IA

Ottumwa Early Vote for Change townhall meeting

6:00 PM

Wapello County Campaign for Change Field Office

226 West Main Street, Suite 203

Ottumwa, IA

TUESDAY, September 30th

Fairfield Early Vote for Change coffee

8:15 AM

Jefferson County Campaign for Change Field Office

108 West Palm Drive

Fairfield, IA

Keokuk Early Vote for Change brown bag lunch

11:45 AM

The Hotel Iowa

401 Main St.

Keokuk, IA

I stand by my contention that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout scheme is among the worst proposals to come out of George Bush’s very bad presidency.

So I am glad to learn that Iowa Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald wants some questions answered before urging Congress to pass the bailout. Click the link to read Marc Hansen’s column about a conference call Fitzgerald and other state treasurers had on Thursday with acting U.S. treasury undersecretary for domestic finance.

I am no economics whiz, but I can help answer Fitzgerald’s first question:

Why $700 billion?

From his office at the Capitol, Fitzgerald listened intently, waiting for the answer that never came. And what did he get instead?

“Nothing,” he says, “other than a lot of babble.”

What’s so magical about $700 billion? Fitzgerald still doesn’t know. It’s about 5 percent of the gross domestic product, if that means anything.

“Magical” is a good word for the number, because as it turns out, they just made it up.

I know this because a few days ago, Open Left diarist fladem posted this link from Forbes magazine:

In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy.

“It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”

David Sirota has written two good pieces quoting Nobel prize-winning economists and others on why there is no crisis requiring a bailout package. Here is part 1, and here is part 2.

In an alternate universe where John Edwards hadn’t disgraced himself, he could have been an effective voice against the rush to shovel taxpayer dollars to Wall Street.

Instead, we have Barack Obama’s campaign letting Roger Altman speak for them in favor of Paulson’s scheme. That’s

the same Roger Altman who was a Clinton Treasury official when the Clinton-backed deregulatory orgy was taking place, the same Roger Altman who is now an investment banker who stands to make bank if this bailout passes, the same Roger Altman who Bloomberg notes “is advising a group of investors who are trying to prevent their shares from being diluted in the U.S. takeover of American International Group Inc.” – that is, who have a direct financial interest in Paulson’s bailout package.

Watching this train barrel down the track is quite discouraging.

Great ad, “Zero,” released by Barack Obama’s campaign less than 12 hours after the presidential debate:

The Democratic political blogs seemed to think Obama’s best moment of the debate was when he pounded John McCain on being wrong about Iraq.

I liked that clip, but I think this ad is very smart, because the economy is a bigger issue for most voters than Iraq.

At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver analyzes last night’s snap polls and explains why the snap polls and focus groups showed an advantage to Obama:

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.

[…]

McCain’s essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience — is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on “understanding your needs and problems” before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on “prepared to be president” to a +21.

Click the link, because Silver’s piece is worth your time.

Speaking of the pundits who were McCain’s target audience, the Des Moines Register’s David Yepsen thought McCain won the debate.  

Via Talking Points Memo. It’s so nice to have a running mate you don’t have to hide from the media:

Biden has a reputation for being gaffe-prone, but when he’s on, he is on. Crushes McCain on Iraq, the surge, his record on fighting terrorism and supporting veterans.

Biden’s last sentence is the most important: “I think John was on his strongest turf today, and he lost and I think it’s gonna be fatal.”

I’ve been hoping for weeks that Barack Obama would find some way to get under John McCain’s skin during the first presidential debate. In less than an hour we’ll see what he’s got.

I have to believe Obama walks onto the stage with a huge psychological advantage. McCain’s ridiculous stunts this week failed to achieve any favorable outcomes:

1. He failed to demonstrate any ability to handle a crisis. Instead, he looked like an uninformed hothead, saying he would fire the head of the Securities Exchange Commission, when the president has no such authority. Later in the week, he admitted that he had not read Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan, even though it’s only three pages long.

2. He failed to deliver a deal on the bailout. On the contrary, it looks like McCain’s presence in Washington was detrimental to the negotiations.

3. He backed down from his promise not to attend the first presidential debate unless a bailout deal had been reached. One thing I’ve learned from parenting is never make a threat if you are not willing to follow through.

4. He failed to delay the vice-presidential debate by getting the first presidential debate rescheduled for October 2.

5. Tracking polls and key state polls are not moving in McCain direction. Instead, Obama now has a five-point lead in the tracking poll average, his largest of the campaign.

Debating is not Obama’s strong suit, but McCain has to be feeling more pressure tonight after his disastrous week.

I’ll watch the repeat later tonight. Meanwhile, this is an open thread for any comments related to the debate, the bailout, or the state of the presidential campaign now.

UPDATE: I caught part of the first half. McCain landed a punch regarding Bush’s terrible energy bill. Ouch. Of course Obama can’t say the truth, which is that he (and other good Democrats such as Tom Harkin) voted for a bad energy bill because it had subsidies for corn-based ethanol and coal.

However, then McCain made a big deal out of being for constructing a bunch of new nuclear power plants. Are Americans for more nuclear power? I’m not sure.

SECOND UPDATE: Listening to most of the second half on the radio, I feel Obama has done very well. However, I regret that McCain hasn’t made any big gaffes or unpresidential comments, from my perspective. I think he is wrong about a lot of things, but I doubt that a typical uninformed voter would see through his rhetoric.

I don’t like the way McCain keeps saying Obama is naive, doesn’t get it, etc. That seems like a talking point the right-wing noise machine could hammer mercilessly for days. It’s of course false, but when has that stopped them before?

On the plus side, over at Daily Kos georgia10 posted this:

If you’re watching the debate on CNN, they have a “dial” reaction chart on the bottom of the screen.  If the audience likes what the candidate is saying, they dial up and the lines go up. If they don’t, they dial down and the numbers tank.

Generally speaking, independents (and obviously Democrats) are registering far more positives for Obama than McCain.  Indeed, at certain points, the numbers among indys have taken a nosedive when McCain sets forth Bush’s his policy proposals.

I also thought Obama did a great job of repeatedly pointing out how the Bush administration dropped the ball on getting Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan because we’ve been focused on Iraq.

THIRD UPDATE: I missed Obama’s closing statement but caught part of McCain’s. Again, I am concerned that he was able to keep on talking about his record of bipartisanship and/or opposing his own party when necessary. I feel that makes it hard for Obama to characterize McCain as George Bush’s third term.

I don’t think Obama hurt himself tonight at all, but I am afraid McCain may have helped himself.

On the other hand, since Obama is leading, perhaps it’s good enough for him to have turned in a solid performance with no big mistakes.

Let’s hope the vice-presidential debate shines a spotlight on McCain’s habit of making rash decisions without thinking things through.

FOURTH UPDATE: CBS snap poll of uncommitted voters finds 40 percent think Obama won, 38 percent think it was a tie, and 22 percent think McCain won.

Obama won the CNN snap poll as well. I was particularly struck by the some of the subgroups: huge gender gap, with McCain doing slightly better among men but Obama crushing McCain by nearly 30 18 points among women. Amazingly, CNN respondents over 50 thought Obama won by a 48-40 margin. That’s McCain’s strongest age group.

FIFTH UPDATE: Daily Kos user Eileen B pointed me toward this clip. When Obama makes fun of McCain for not knowing who the leader of Spain was, McCain says, “Horsesh*t.”

I was listening on the radio and didn’t catch this. Will the media pick it up?

Or was McCain saying, “Of course?”

I had a doctor’s appointment this morning, and they had the CBS Early Show on in the waiting room. One of the anchors was down in Oxford, Mississippi on the Ole Miss campus, where the first presidential debate is scheduled to be held tonight.

Behind him a crowd of mostly white students cheered and waved “Change We Need” signs.

That’s right, a bunch of white kids cheered for a black presidential nominee on the Ole Miss campus, where a building still has bullet marks from the violence that accompanied black student James Meredith’s enrollment in 1962.

It’s a great day for this country, even if John McCain decides not to show up to debate Barack Obama.

Granny Doc has more on this from the perspective of someone who remembers the civil rights unrest.

A few weeks ago I read that Ron Paul was not endorsing any presidential candidate but was urging his supporters to vote for the third-party candidate of their choice–anyone but Barack Obama or John McCain.

However, this week Paul endorsed Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin. The Wall Street Journal blog pointed me toward this letter from Paul to supporters, which contains a bit of a rebuke to Libertarian candidate Bob Barr:

The Libertarian Party Candidate admonished me for “remaining neutral” in the presidential race and not stating whom I will vote for in November.   It’s true; I have done exactly that due to my respect and friendship and support from both the Constitution and Libertarian Party members.  I remain a lifetime member of the Libertarian Party and I’m a ten-term Republican Congressman.  It is not against the law to participate in more then one political party.  Chuck Baldwin has been a friend and was an active supporter in the presidential campaign.

I continue to wish the Libertarian and Constitution Parties well.  The more votes they get, the better.  I have attended Libertarian Party conventions frequently over the years.

In some states, one can be on the ballots of two parties, as they can in New York.  This is good and attacks the monopoly control of politics by Republicans and Democrats.  We need more states to permit this option.  This will be a good project for the Campaign for Liberty, along with the alliance we are building to change the process.

I’ve thought about the unsolicited advice from the Libertarian Party candidate, and he has convinced me to reject my neutral stance in the November election.  I’m supporting Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party candidate.

When you think about what an insiders’ club Congress is, it’s amazing that Paul (still a Republican Congressman from Texas) did not endorse his former colleague Barr, who represented Georgia for many years in the House. Barr has denounced the Republican Party for embracing big government and not insisting that the president abide by the law.

The big question for me is whether Paul’s endorsement of Baldwin will cut into Barr’s support in some of the key swing states. I’ve argued before that Barr could tip Nevada to Obama, but ProgressiveSouth writes that Barr could also be a factor in North Carolina.

Anyone out there know any Ron Paul voters or caucus-goers? Will they settle for McCain, sit out the election or vote for a third-party alternative?

For the record, nine presidential candidates will appear on the Iowa ballot, including Baldwin and Barr.

Well, we're 10 days closer to E-day, so here's an analysis of where the race stands.

What Changed?
The number of “leaner” states has dropped dramatically. Oregon and New Jersey (22 EV together) have moved from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”; Arizona, North and South Dakota, Texas, Arkansas, and South Carolina (74 EV) move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”.

A few states have, however, moved back into toss-up territory.  Minnesota and Pennsylvania moved from “lean Obama” to “toss-up”; Florida, Indiana and North Carolina move out of “lean McCain”. Maine moves from “likely Obama” to “lean Obama”. In a big blow to McCain, West Virginia moves from “likely McCain” to “toss-up” and Louisiana moves from “likely McCain” to “lean McCain”. (More on all this later.)

Nationally, the trend is strongly in favor of Obama. The country as a whole moves from “toss-up” to “lean Obama”, in the wake of polls showing Obama up by as much as 5-8 points over McCain.

However, while this is good news, a disturbing fact remains. If the election were held today, and every state voted exactly as the latest poll suggests, and there were no recounts or lawsuits, the result would be:  a 269-269 tie.

Where they stand:

Obama: Obama has a lot going for him. On a macro level, the continued focus on the national economy only helps him as voters strongly prefer him to McCain on that issue.

On a micro level, I think the best news is in the latest polls out of West Virginia. A poll released by CNN/Time shows McCain over Obama 50-46%, with 4% undecided with a margin of error of 3.5%. This represents a HUGE improvement from polls taken in February which showed Obama in the 30% range. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 13% there in 2004…this is a big shift. It also bodes well for Obama's chances in southern Pennsylvania and Ohio.

If Obama has a problem area, it seems to be in northern states. McCain is in the lead and gaining in New Hampshire and Montana, and is up 10 points from his low in Maine to pull within 10 points there. McCain is also gaining ground in Washington, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

McCain: McCain lost his mojo (pre-suspension). The bloom seems to be off the Palin pick, and the economy hurts his chances more each day.
If there is a silver lining for McCain, it is that he seems to have locked in the base in several states that were looking a little pink. He reversed downward trends in many states, including Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and the Dakotas. He's also starting to pull away in a few places like Montana, Missouri and New Hampshire.

McCain is losing major ground in the Mid-Atlantic States. He has lost ground this week from Pennsylvania to North Carolina–key states if he hopes to win in November.

This time it’s a Marist poll, conducted between September 18 and September 21, showing Barack Obama beating John McCain in Iowa by 51 percent to 41 percent. That makes five polls in the last month showing Obama above 50 percent and with a double-digit lead here.

How do you like not being a swing state anymore?

Remember, people need to vote for Democrats all the way down the ticket. If Obama wins Iowa by 10 points or more, we should be able to win seats in Congress and the state legislature.

John McCain announced that he is suspending his campaign events and wants to delay the first presidential debate, scheduled for Friday, because of the economic crisis. Talking Points Memo has the full text of McCain’s statement.

A few days ago, he was still saying the fundamentals of our economy are strong.

Apparently Barack Obama called McCain this morning

to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement.  The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

Then McCain went public on postponing the first debate. I’m with Chris Bowers: this was a cheap stunt to “upstage Obama after Obama made the first ‘bi-partisan’ move.”

I also agree with Bowers that Obama was foolish to try to minimize the distinction between himself and McCain on this issue. His campaign should be pounding on McCain’s role in deregulating the banking industry, and the fact that McCain surrounds himself with corporate lobbyists.

Anyway, at least the Obama campaign is insisting that “The debate is on.” They should not fall for this maneuver.

Note that it doesn’t cost McCain much to suspend his stump speeches–he doesn’t exactly draw huge crowds, and it’s probably tiring to be on the road every day. I doubt he’ll cut back on his television advertising. CORRECTION: McCain’s spokesperson says he is taking his campaign’s television ads off the air. No word yet on whether the Republican National Committee or 527 groups that support McCain will do the same.

UPDATE: Ben Smith has Obama’s response:

“It’s my belief that this is exactly the time the American people need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be responsible with dealing with this mess,” he said. “In my mind, actually, it’s more important than ever that we present ourselves to the American people and try to describe where we want to take the country and where we wnt to take the economy as well as dealing with some of the issues of foreign policy that were initially the subject of the debate.”

[…]

“Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time,” he says. “It’s not necessary for us to think that we can do only one thing, and suspend everything else.”

SECOND UPDATE: Now CNN says the McCain campaign wants to move the first presidential debate to October 2, when the vice-presidential debate is currently scheduled. So they want to use this crisis as an excuse for delaying the VP debate. I share Hunter’s suspicion that the VP debate might never get rescheduled if the Obama campaign allows it to be delayed.

Meanwhile, Todd Beeton heard on Fox News that “John McCain currently does not plan to attend the debate Friday night but that if a plan is agreed to by Friday, he will.”

I hope Congressional Democrats do not give in to this blackmail. Let Obama show up next to an empty podium at the first debate. Who’d look “ready to lead” then?

You may recall that Al Gore carried Iowa by two votes per precinct, but did you know that early voting gave Gore his margin of victory here?

I explained why I vote early here, and Justus wrote a more comprehensive piece on the subject at BooMan Tribune.

Every vote Democrats bank early reduces the chance of losing votes through illness or family emergencies. Every vote Democrats bank early means one less phone number for volunteers to call, and one less door for canvassers to knock on election day.

The Obama campaign in Iowa is running 21 phone banks today to promote early voting. There will also be 17 “vote early for change” supporter gatherings tomorrow morning across the state. Details for all those events are after the jump.

Even if you don’t have time to volunteer today or tomorrow, keep your eye out for anyone you know who might be willing to vote before election day. On Tuesday I ran into an elderly neighbor whose husband has a lot of health problems. She’s got her hands full, so I asked her if she needed absentee ballot request forms. She said that would be wonderful–she hadn’t had time yet to look into how that worked. I went home and called the Obama precinct captain in my neighborhood, and she had a volunteer run the forms over a few hours later.

Remember to tell your friends and family that they should fill out the whole ballot and not just vote for Barack Obama. We need to win those down-ticket races.

Also remember that there are many ways to volunteer that do not involve calling strangers on the phone or knocking on strangers’ doors.

You can bring food to a campaign headquarters, offer to sort literature for the canvassers, put up an out-of-town volunteer in your spare room, or even do laundry or errands for a campaign staffer. Or, just call your local campaign office to ask what kind of help they need.

Most of the electoral vote counters have swung in Barack Obama’s favor during the past week, but it still looks as if the presidential election will be close. In fact, there are at least two plausible scenarios for the candidates tying at 269 electoral votes each. That would happen if Obama won all the states John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, or if Obama won all the Kerry states except for New Hampshire, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

The Constitution stipulates that the House of Representatives picks the president if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes, while the Senate picks the vice president. But it’s not a simple vote of the House members; they vote by state delegation.

I’ve been wondering how this would play out, and today I came across this excellent post at the Campaign Diaries blog that analyzes the chances for either Obama or McCain to win the necessary 26 state delegations.

Before I read that post I hadn’t realized that this scenario could happen even if the electoral college splits 270-268, if a “faithless elector” switches his or her vote away from the winner.

I encourage you to click through and read the whole post, but the Cliff’s Notes version is that Obama appears to have a better chance of winning 26 state delegations in the House than McCain does. It’s also possible that neither presidential candidate could win 26 state delegations:

What would happen then? Well, the 12th amendment states that if by the fourth of March the House has not agreed on a candidate, the vice-president would become president. And given that Senate Democrats would have long already elevated Joe Biden to the vice-presidency, that could mean a Biden Administration.

The funny thing is, I think I would prefer President Biden to either Obama or McCain. But let’s hope Obama wins with a clear mandate on November 4.

A new Research 2000 Iowa poll for the Quad-City Times shows Barack Obama beating John McCain by 53 percent to 39 percent. Obama’s lead among independents is 55-37.

Two days ago, Survey USA released an Iowa poll that found Obama ahead 54-43 (which I discussed here). Before that, CNN/Time and Selzer and Associates for the Des Moines Register also found Obama to be above 50 percent in Iowa, with McCain at least 10 points behind.

Get active with one of our down-ticket Democratic campaigns. We have a great opportunity to elect more Democrats on Obama’s coat-tails.  

The big event of the week will be the first presidential debate this Friday. You can sign up to attend or host one of the debate watching parties being organized by Democracy for America by clicking here.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that early voting starts in Iowa on September 25. Last week I gave some reasons to vote early, and Justus wrote a more comprehensive piece on the subject at BooMan Tribune. Remember, it was early voting that put Al Gore over the top in Iowa in 2000.

Please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if you know of an event I’ve left out.

Sunday, September 21:

Rob Hubler will be at the Monona County Democrats Annual Fall Rally at 4:30 p.m. in the Onawa Community Center.

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 3:00 to 5:00 pm at the University of Northern Iowa, Mauker Union – Presidential Room in Cedar Falls. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Tuesday, September 23:

Humanities Iowa and Trees Forever are hosting Voices From The Prairie, an Iowa Writers’ Celebration September 23rd, 7 pm at the Hoyt Sherman Place in Des Moines, Iowa. Our theme this year is “Mixing Sun and Shade” as we explore how the prairie meets the forest. Our featured authors are John T. Price and Debra Marquart, both will discuss environmental issues and be available for questions. This event is free. fmi: Humanities Iowa, dana-mcgillin@uiowa.edu, or steve@southslope.net

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 6:00 to 8:00 pm at the Mason City Library Learning Center, 225 Second St. SE in Mason City. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Wednesday, September 24:

From the Sierra Club e-mail list:

Please attend a forum on

Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund

The first two forums are this week–see the entire list of meetings below.

Grinnell  9/24/08 @ 6:30 pmOld Glove Factory,  733 Broad St. (part of

Grinnell College)

Independence  9/25/08 @ 6:30 PMHeartland Acres (the big, barn-like building

on the west side of Independence off HWY 20)

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including Sierra Club, TNC, INHF, Pheasants Forever, Ducks Unlimited, Iowa

Farmers Union, Izaak Walton League, Environment Iowa, Iowa Environmental Council, Iowa Rivers Revival, etc.) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural

Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund. […]

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next

time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009

legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

Trees Forever will host a symposium entitled “Leading the Way to Greener Communities – Where Culture, Economy and the Environment Grow Together” on Wednesday, Sept 24. The event will be held from 8 AM to 4 PM at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, located at 10th & Walnut in Des Moines. The symposium will explore the economic, cultural and environmental benefits of trees and green spaces in an urban setting, public policies on green infrastructure, and other timely topics. Special guest speakers for the day include Suzanne Malec-McKenna, Commissioner of the City of Chicago Department of Environment, and Alice Ewen Walker, Executive Director of the National Alliance for Community Trees. The cost of the Trees Forever 2008 Symposium event is $25 for Trees Forever members or $35 for non-members, and includes lunch and refreshments. Advance registration is requested. For more information, or to register, log on to www.TreesForever.org or call 1-800-369-1269.

The Center on Sustainable Communities is organizing another Demo Home Workshop:

Join COSC and USGBC Iowa Chapter at our Foundations & Basements On-Site workshop on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 from 11:00 am to 2:00 pm at the Des Moines affordable green demonstration home site – 1347 Forest Avenue in the King-Irving Neighborhood. A CHDC (Community Housing Development Corporation) project, this is the second in our series of hands-on workshops at the affordable green demonstration homes in the Des Moines metro area.

A big thanks to the funding supporters of these demonstration home workshops:

   * Greater Des Moines Community Foundation

   * Principal Financial Group Foundation

   * Iowa Department of Natural Resources

   * Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

   * MidAmerican Energy

For more details visit www.icosc.com

RSVP by Monday, Sept. 22nd to Emily at Emily@icosc.com or 515-277-6222.

Thursday, September 25:

There will be a 60th Birthday Celebration and annual pasta dinner for Secretary of State Michael Mauro. Please join Michael and his family to celebrate! Thursday, September 25, 5:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m., A. H. Blank Golf Course, SW 9th & County Line Rd. Suggested Donation: $20 (note from desmoinesdem: We all owe Mauro our thanks for his efforts to get rid of paperless voting machines in Iowa. Kick in a few bucks for his birthday if you can.)

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 6:30 to 8:30 pm at a location to be determined in Ames. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Also on Thursday, Sep 25, beginning at 6:30 p.m., learn about current, proposed conservation legislation and priorities of legislators and candidates, during a regional Candidates Conservation Forum in Independence, Iowa. Information will be presented on current and proposed state legislation to protect and enhance natural resources and the environment. Legislative candidates from a four-county area will be invited to speak about their priorities for legislation and answer questions from the public. The Forum will be held at the Heartland Acres Event Center, 2600 Swan Lake Blvd, in Independence, and is sponsored by the Conservation Board; Buchanan, Black Hawk, Benton and Fayette County Chapters of Pheasants Forever; Buchanan County Extension; the Friends of Hartman Reserve Nature Center, Tallgrass Prairie Center, and other conservation groups in the four-county region. There is no cost to attend.

Friday, September 26:

The first presidential debate will be televised at 8:00 pm central time. Jim Lehrer, Executive Editor and Anchor of The NewsHour on PBS will moderate at Ole Miss college in Oxford, Mississippi.

Saturday, September 27:

From a friend in Johnson County:

Saturday, September 27 is National Public Lands Day and Herbert Hoover National Historic Site is again looking for volunteers to help restore their 81-acre tallgrass prairie.

National Public Lands Day, is the annual nation-wide volunteer restoration effort for America’s public lands. This year’s work will

include cutting down shrubs and collecting or planting prairie seeds. Volunteers who work at Herbert Hoover NHS will be rewarded with a pass

good for free entry any day during the next year at public land sites managed by the National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, U.S. Fish and

Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Volunteers interested in getting hands-on experience with our natural resources on September 27 should contact Adam Prato at (319) 643-7855 by

Friday, September 26. Dress for the weather and wear comfortable work clothes. Work gloves and tools will be provided. Water, sunscreen,

sunglasses, and hats are recommended. Meet at the Visitor Center at 8:30 a.m. for an orientation and to get signed up. Work in the prairie will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

From a friend in Pella:

Women may be interested in Bodies in Focus, a day-long workshop for small groups of women, centering on my fine art professional photographic exhibit of REAL naked women.  The goal of our time together is for us all to move one step closer to     living more intensely as a body.  The workshop is for participant health. The photographed women and I want to share a unique and life-altering experience with portraiture, within a safe community. Ultimately, our gathering together will itself be transformational. The workshop will include exhibit viewing and thoughtful group discussion of being bodies (sharing is always optional).  Please plan to stay all day. You will be a group of up to 12 women, and so continuity of PRESENCE will be vital. Please stay for lunchtime,   as well, resisting the call to run errands.

WHEN: – We’ll meet on Saturday September 27, 2008 at 10:00 to 3:00, with an hour-long lunch included.

WHERE: –  My house: 900 Independence Street; Pella, IA  50219  (Located on the corner of Independence and West First Street)

FOOD: –  The lunch will be vegetarian (non-vegan). Please eat lunch here. Tell me if you have special dietary needs.

FEE    –  $65: Includes workshop and lunch. Please pay prior to the workshop. Bartering is an option.

Please RSVP to Rhonda (641) 621-0171

Sunday, September 28:

From the Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation:

You’re invited to an open house honoring Erwin “Erv” Klaas, the 2008 winner of the Hagie Heritage Award!

Please join us in celebrating this conservation hero.

Sunday, Sept. 28, 2008

2:30-4:00 p.m. Open house with refreshments

3:00 p.m. Short program and award presentation

Story County Nature Center, McFarland Park

56461 180th Street, Ames

The Iowa Natural Heritage Foundation presents the Hagie Heritage Award annually to a person with extraordinary service and commitment to Iowa’s environment. Learn about Erv’s outstanding conservation work at www.inhf.org/hagie2008-klaas.htm

For directions to the event, call the Story County Conservation Board at 515-232-2516.

For more information, call INHF at 515-288-1846 or e-mail us at info@inhf.org .

From the Polk County Conservation Board:

A-mazing Prairie Festival

September 28, Polk County

Gather the entire family and join us 11 a.m. – 5 p.m., at the Chichaqua Bottoms Greenbelt Longhouse, to play and explore a 14-acre prairie maze. A walk through this maze will not only challenge your navigation and problem-solving skills, but will educate you about our natural heritage as well. Free canoe floats, a raptor release, music from the Barn Owl Band, dog training demonstrations, education programs, and hayrack tours will take place throughout the day. This special event is free to the public. For directions, go online to http://www.conservationboard.o…

One Iowa is holding a campaign training session for volunteers from 3:00 to 5:00 pm at the Iowa City Public Library, 123 S. Linn St. For more info, go to http://www.oneiowa.org.

Monday, September 29:

There will be a fundraiser in Des Moines for Rob Hubler, with a minimum suggested donation of $100. If you are interested, please contact Katrina at 712-352-2077 or katrina AT hublercongress.com

From the Iowa Environmental Council:

Projects WILD/WILD Aquatic/Learning Tree On-line Course, Starting September 29, Internet

This nine-week on-line class (9/29/08 – 11/30/08) introduces students to the national, award-winning Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree activity guides as well as Iowa supplements that provide additional background information and resources. All materials are correlated to National Education Standards. Participants are required to spend 3 hours per week on-line completing assignments. Participants should be comfortable navigating web pages. A majority of the course materials are provided on a CD. For more information, contact Shannon Hafner, Aquatic Education Program, Iowa DNR, 641/ 747-2051, Shannon.Hafner@dnr.iowa.gov

Survey USA becomes the third pollster (after CNN/Time and Selzer and Associates for the Des Moines Register) to find Barack Obama above 50 percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The poll found Obama ahead 54-43:

Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie.

Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, Obama leads by 7.

Among white voters — 95% of Iowa’s likely voters — Obama leads by 8 points.

11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.

John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa. Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.

Yes, the Big Ten Battleground States poll showing Obama and McCain tied in Iowa is an outlier.

I’m thinking the McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids on Thursday is the last we will see of the Republican ticket before November. We may get another visit from Joe Biden, but I doubt Obama is going to spend any more time in Iowa before the election either.

Side note: Rob Hubler and Becky Greenwald have to be encouraged by the news that Obama is slightly ahead in northwest Iowa and far ahead in northeast Iowa.

If you’re worried about the direction of energy policy under a President Barack Obama, as I am, you will not be comforted by the news I just learned from Bleeding Heartland user Renewable Rich. MidAmerican Energy, which is part of Warren Buffett’s empire, is buying Constellation Energy, which among other things operates nuclear power plants. One of the articles Renewable Rich linked to notes:

This deal also brings nuclear energy to Berkshire’s utility empire for the first time, an area where Buffett has professed great interest. Constellation operates a highly efficient fleet of plants and has plans to build several more. The merger effectively allies Berkshire with French nuclear giant Electricite de France-which owns 10 percent of Constellation-and its nuclear construction partner, French government-backed Areva. The pair has plans to build four advanced reactors in the US, and joining their interests to Buffett’s deep pockets could accelerate their development.

Obama has already said he is open to expanding nuclear power in the U.S., and I’m sure Warren Buffett will have his ear.

This is not good news for those of us who share the position of the Union of Concerned Scientists regarding nuclear power.

Before people start posting angry comments, let me assure you that I understand Obama’s energy policy as a whole would be much better than McCain’s. I still worry about Obama’s support for nuclear power and so-called “clean coal.” Those stands were the main reason that Friends of the Earth Action endorsed John Edwards last fall and not Obama.

Note: I have included information about a couple of upcoming public events featuring Congressman Steve King. If you have a videocamera and some free time, please consider going to see if he has anything particularly offensive to say.

If you would be willing to show up outside the event wearing a chicken suit representing King’s refusal to debate Rob Hubler, please e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. There may be a chicken suit you could borrow.

Fewer than 50 days remain before the election. If you haven’t done so already, contact the campaign offices of your local statehouse candidate or Congressional candidate, or one of the Obama field offices in Iowa (http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/iaoffices) to find out what kind of help they need from volunteers.

Remember, if you are not comfortable calling strangers on the phone or knocking on strangers’ doors, there are many other ways volunteers can help.

Post a comment or send me an e-mail if I’ve left out any important events.

Friday, September 19:

From the Obama campaign in Iowa:

Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner to Campaign in Iowa on Behalf of Obama Campaign

Governor Minner will hold events in Knoxville and Ames to talk about the Obama-Biden plans to bring America the change we need

Des Moines, Iowa – On Friday, September 19th, 2008, Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner will visit Iowa to talk to Iowans about the Obama-Biden plans to ensure fairness and economic security for Iowa’s working women.   Gov. Minner will hold a brown bag lunch in Knoxville and a meet and greet in Ames.

Since taking office in 2001, Gov. Minner has worked to get things done in Delaware by improving schools, preserving and protecting the environment, improving health care and fighting cancer, and creating and keeping jobs.

Beginning her political career in 1974, Gov. Minner served four terms in the state House of Representatives (1974-1982), and served three terms in the state Senate (1982-1993). She served as Delaware’s Lieutenant Governor from 1993 until 2001. Gov. Minner became the 72nd governor and the first female governor of the state of Delaware on January 3, 2001.

The details of the events are:

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19TH, 2008

12:00 PM CDT

Women’s Brown Bag Lunch with Governor Ruth Ann Minner

Coffee Connection

213 E Main St., #2

Knoxville, Iowa

6:00 PM CDT

Women’s Meet and Greet with Governor Ruth Ann Minner

Legend’s American Grill

119 Stanton Ave

7th floor in the Legacy Suite

Ames, Iowa

Saturday, September 20:

A little bird told me:

Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. will host a grand opening celebration at its ethanol plant in Superior, Iowa, on Saturday, September 20, 2008. The festivities will run from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., and include food and refreshments courtesy of local livestock producers. Congressman Steve King will speak at a dedication ceremony, which begins at noon. Attendees will also have the opportunity to take guided tours of the plant.

Superior is between Spirit Lake and Estherville.  If you are in the area, you might want to pack up your video camera and show.

The Iowa Citizen Action Network is participating in a nationwide canvassing effort to knock on a million doors for peace. MoveOn.org is also involved with this effort. If you’ve got two hours to spare on Saturday, you can sign up to get a list of 40 new or infrequent voters in your neighborhood. You can do this individually wherever you live, or sign up to join groups that will be meeting in Des Moines, Ames and Waterloo. More details are after the jump.  Contact ICAN Organizer Sue Dinsdale at sdinsdale@iowacan.org or 515-277-5077 ext. 14 or go to milliondoorsforpeace.org

From the Obama campaign:

Des Moines, Iowa – On Saturday, September 20th, 2008, Congressman Leonard Boswell will hold an event in Newton as part of the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change’s “Iowa Economic Security Tour.”

The future of our nation’s economy is a focal point in this election, and Congressman Boswell will highlight the differences between the Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin economic plans. This week, Governor Culver and economist Dean Baker kicked off the tour with events in Davenport, Ottumwa and Des Moines.

On the very same day Lehman Brothers collapsed and our stock market was in a freefall this week, John McCain once again declared, “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.”  Really?

“This statement ignores the realities Americans are facing every day,” said Obama Iowa state director Jackie Norris.  “Our country has lost more than 600,000 jobs this year and is averaging nearly 10,000 foreclosures a day.  The fundamentals of our economy are anything but strong, and we need a president who understands that fact.  Barack Obama will cut taxes for middle class families by three times as much as McCain, create good paying jobs by investing in Iowa renewable energies and end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.”      

Over the coming weeks, the campaign will host events across Iowa where elected officials, community leaders and policy advisers will talk about Senator Obama’s plan to make our economy work for middle class families and Senator McCain’s plan to give Americans four more years of Bush economic policies that favor big corporations and the wealthiest Americans.

The details are:

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20TH, 2008

4:00 PM CDT

Economic Security Tour event with Congressman Leonard Boswell

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

207 1st Ave. W

Newton, Iowa

 

From the Sierra Club:

Why our Modern Food System is Not Sustainable

September 20, Ames area

Join us on Saturday, September 20, as we celebrate together the efforts and achievements of fellow Iowa Sierrans and conservation activists at the Story County Conservation Center in McFarland Park north of Ames. Frederick L. Kirschenmann, a Distinguished Fellow, Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture will be the featured speaker. His presentation, “Why our Modern Food System is not Sustainable,” will offer Fred’s unique perspective on the challenges and opportunities we face in balancing an agricultural economy with the protection of our natural heritage. The banquet begins with a social time and silent auction at 11:00 a.m. followed at noon by lunch, Dr. Kirschenmann and an awards ceremony. There are also opportunities to hike the many trails in the park. The event will be catered by renowned Lucallan’s Restaurant, featuring local foods. The cost is $35 per person.

Please RSVP to Neila Seaman, 3839 Merle Hay Road, Suite 280, Des Moines, Iowa, 50310 or Iowa.chapter@sierraclub.org or 515-277-8868.

The Latino Heritage Festival runs Saturday and Sunday in Blank Park on SW 9th by the Zoo in Des Moines. The Polk County Democrats need volunteers to help with the booth, especially anyone who speaks Spanish.  Ideally, we would like to have at least one Spanish speaking person on every shift. The hours are 11am to 7pm Saturday, September 20th and 11am to 7pm Sunday, September 21st.  Any time you are available to help during those hours would be appreciated.  To volunteer, please call Tamyra at 515-285-1800.

Johnson County Heritage Trust Autumn Celebration

The 2nd annual “Under a Cider Moon . . . a Celebration of Autumn with the Johnson County Heritage Trust” fundraising event will be held Saturday, September 20, at 6 p.m at Dick Schwab’s round barn located at 2501 Sugar Bottom Road near Solon, Iowa.  There will be a live and silent auction, live music and local food and beverages. Proceeds will assist JCHT identify, preserve and manage land with significant environmental value in Johnson County.  For additional information visit www.jcht.org or call 1-319-857-4741.  RSVP today by mailing your check or donation to Johnson County Heritage Trust, P. O. Box 2523, Iowa City, Iowa 522440-2523 or by calling credit card information to 1-319-857-4741.

This would be a good place for someone in a chicken suit to stand outside with a sign asking Steve King why he’s afraid to debate Rob Hubler:

Gov. Pawlenty is headed to Iowa this weekend to keynote the Polk County GOP Dinner. Here’s the release from the Iowa GOP:

Pawlenty to headline GOPfest ’08

(Des Moines) — The Polk County GOP has released details for GOPfest ’08, their annual informal fundraiser. This year’s event will be headlined by  Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

GOPfest ’08 will take place on Saturday, September 20th at 7 Flags Event Center, 2100 NW 100 St in Clive. Doors will open at 5:30 p.m. with dinner service beginning at 6 p.m. Entertainment will provided by the Sunny Humbucker Band.

Speakers for GOPfest ’08 will include Polk County Chairman Ted Sporer, U.S. House candidate Kim Schmett, U.S. Senate candidate Christopher Reed and 5th District Congressman Steve King. Governor Pawlenty is expected to make his keynote remarks at 7:30 p.m.

“We are very pleased to have Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty come to Polk County for GOPfest ’08,” Sporer said. “Governor Pawlenty is one of the nationally recognized figures in the new generation of Republican leadership and GOPfest is a great opportunity for the people of central Iowa to see and meet him.”

The event is open to the public and tickets can be reserved by email at  ExDir@polkgop.com or by calling 515-280-6438. Cost is $25 for adults, $15 for students and children five years or under admitted free.

The Big Ten Battleground Poll released today shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually tied in Iowa, with Obama at 42.7 percent and McCain at 42 percent when leaners are not added, and Obama and McCain both at 44.8 percent with leaners.

I am not buying it.

It’s not just that Selzer and Associates, which has an excellent track record in Iowa, released a poll four days ago showing Obama ahead 52-40. It’s not just that CNN/Time released a poll two weeks ago showing Obama ahead 55-40.

It’s the fact that according to a commenter at MyDD who has dug into the methodology, the Big Ten Battleground polls did not weight the data according to turnout projections.

The reason Ann Selzer was right about the Iowa caucuses was that she weighted the results to reflect the record turnout she expected (about 60 percent of caucus-goers being first-time caucus-goers).

The Big Ten Battleground poll supposedly has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, but not weighting the results to reflect likely turnout of various demographic groups could introduce far more bias than that.

To cite one egregious example, this Virginia poll showing McCain ahead by 9 points was not weighted for race. As a result, it assumes that black voters will comprise less than 10 percent of the electorate in November.

Despite the fact that blacks were approximately 20 percent of voters in Virginia in November 2004, when John Kerry did nothing to target the state.

Despite the fact that the current Democratic nominee is black and is targeting Virginia with 35 field offices.

It’s worthless to even release a Virginia presidential poll with such ridiculous assumptions regarding turnout.

I suspect that the Big Ten Iowa poll has some similar erroneous assumption, perhaps underestimating Democratic or youth turnout.

On the other hand, I hope the McCain/Palin campaign starts spending lots of time and money in Iowa, hoping that we are a swing state. That will be pouring resources down a sinkhole for them.

Since late August, Republicans have been trying to appropriate Barack Obama’s change and reform message, branding the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket as a team of “mavericks” out to fix Washington’s bad ways.

During the past week, the Obama campaign has stepped up its efforts to highlight McCain’s ties to powerful lobbyists, in order to show that he would implement “more of the same” policies as president.

The first ad, which you can view here, begins with a clip from McCain on September 4, telling the GOP convention crowd, “It’s over! It’s over for the special interests!”

An announcer then says,

“Wait a second. John McCain’s chief adviser lobbies for oil companies, even from Russia and China. His campaign manager lobbies for corporations outsourcing American jobs. The campaign chairman he picked last year — a bank lobbyist. If seven of McCain’s top advisers are lobbyists, who do you think will run his White House? John McCain. We just can’t afford more of the same.”

The Obama campaign just launched a new ad this week focusing on lobbyists as they related to failed economic policies:

BARACK: I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message.

ANNCR: His campaign is run by lobbyists.

Now we find out McCain’s White House will be lobbyist-run too.

McCain just picked a Washington super lobbyist to plan his administration.

A “consummate insider” who lobbies for oil companies. The credit card industry.

Special interests rigging the system

Pushing Bush economics

Corporate special interests rigging the system against hard working Americans…pushing failed Bush economics. Does that sound like change

to you?

We just can’t afford more of the same.

Here in Iowa, State Senator Steve Warnstadt released a report today on McCain doing the bidding of oil industry lobbyists instead of supporting policies to promote renewable energy production in our state:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 17, 2008                                                                

Contact: Brooke Borkenhagen

507-317-4104

SEN. STEVE WARNSTADT RELEASES REPORT ON JOHN MCCAIN’S TIES TO WASHINGTON LOBBYISTS

McCain Puts Lobbyists Ahead of Iowa-Grown Renewable Energy

Sioux City,  IA – On the eve of Sen. John McCain’s visit to  Iowa , State Sen. Steve Warnstadt held a press conference in  Sioux City to release a new report on Sen. McCain’s ties to  Washington lobbyists.  Sen. Warnstadt discussed how McCain’s close ties to oil company lobbyists come at the expense of Iowa-grown renewable energy and hardworking  Iowa families who are struggling with record prices at the pump.

John McCain doesn’t understand that  Iowa is leading our way to energy independence.  Just yesterday, a new blade plant for wind turbines opened in  Newton , creating 500 good-paying jobs in our state. Iowa-produced renewable energy is critical to  Iowa ‘s economy, producing $1,000 of income per  Iowa household, and has created nearly 100,000 jobs throughout the state. John McCain has opposed tax credits to boost the wind energy industry in our state and he has even called  Iowa ethanol “highway robbery.”

This report entitled “No Reformer: McCain Puts Lobbyists First While Americans Struggle,” illustrates that after 26 years in Washington, John McCain means more of the same failed Bush policies that put Exxon Mobil ahead of Iowa-produced renewable energy. John McCain says that he’ll take on the special interests and lobbyists, but eight of his closest advisors and aides are former lobbyists.

“Iowans are struggling with record gas prices and Sen. McCain’s solution is to slash all investment in Iowa-grown ethanol and give $4 billion in tax giveaways to big oil companies,” said State Sen. Steve Warnstadt.  ”  Iowa has seen nearly 1,000 wind energy jobs created in the last year, but McCain has opposed the renewable energy tax credits that helped create them.  That’s not the change we want and deserve.  Iowans can’t afford more of the same.”

To view the full report, click on the following link: http://www.democrats.org/page/…

I find this line of attack easy to grasp, but somewhere I read a piece arguing that low-information voters don’t know what a lobbyist is or what a lobbyist does.

Do you think undecided voters will be swayed by this line of attack against McCain? Or do we need to talk more about the bills he has voted for rather than whom he employs on his campaign?

Barack Obama has released a two-minute ad featuring himself addressing the camera. For some reason I can’t find the embed code now, but you can view the ad here. For most of the ad, a web address where people can read Obama’s full economic plan is visible toward the right of the screen (barackobama.com/plan).

This is the script:

   In the past few weeks, Wall Street’s been rocked as banks closed and markets tumbled. But for many of you – the people I’ve met in town halls, backyards and diners across America – our troubled economy isn’t news. 600,000 Americans have lost their jobs since January. Paychecks are flat and home values are falling. It’s hard to pay for gas and groceries and if you put it on a credit card they’ve probably raised your rates. You’re paying more than ever for health insurance that covers less and less.

   This isn’t just a string of bad luck. The truth is that while you’ve been living up to your responsibilities Washington has not. That’s why we need change. Real change. This is no ordinary time and it shouldn’t be an ordinary election. But much of this campaign has been consumed by petty attacks and distractions that have nothing to do with you or how we get America back on track.

   Here’s what I believe we need to do. Reform our tax system to give a $1,000 tax break to the middle class instead of showering more on oil companies and corporations that outsource our jobs. End the ‘anything goes’ culture on Wall Street with real regulation that protects your investments and pensions. Fast track a plan for energy ‘made-in-America’ that will free us from our dependence on mid-east oil in 10 years and put millions of Americans to work. Crack down on lobbyists – once and for all – so their back-room deal-making no longer drowns out the voices of the middle class and undermines our common interests as Americans.

   And yes, bring a responsible end to this war in Iraq so we stop spending billions each month rebuilding their country when we should be rebuilding ours. Doing these things won’t be easy. But we’re Americans. We’ve met tough challenges before. And we can again. I’m Barack Obama. I hope you’ll read my economic plan. I approved this message because bitter, partisan fights and outworn ideas of the left and the right won’t solve the problems we face today. But a new spirit of unity and shared responsibility will.

This seems like a powerful ad to me. I don’t know how many people have the attention span to watch for two minutes, but I feel it’s a nice contrast to the mean-spirited, gimmicky attack ads that are being run against Obama.

I’ll update with the video and a list of states where this ad is running once that is available.

UPDATE: Click here for the 2012 version of this post.

Note: Here is a more recent version of this diary.

Mr. desmoinesdem likes to vote on election day, but I usually vote several weeks before. That way I don’t have to worry if I’m sick, or my children are sick, on that Tuesday in November. Plus, if everyone in my family is well, voting early leaves my election day free for volunteering with the Iowa Democratic Party’s phone banks or canvassing teams.

Long lines aren’t typically a problem in my precinct, but early voting is also good for people who want to make sure they don’t have to wait long during the rush to vote before or after work on election day.

Voting early also enables the Obama campaign and Iowa Democratic Party to direct their GOTV efforts toward more unreliable voters than you. Once you have voted, you won’t receive any more phone calls reminding you to vote.

The Obama campaign in Iowa sent out this e-mail today, encouraging supporters to vote early:

Dear [desmoinesdem] —

Vote early for Barack Did you know you don’t have to wait until November 4th to vote for Barack?

Right now supporters like you are stepping up to show their support for Barack and Democrats up and down the ballot by voting early.

In Iowa, you can vote early by mail right now, or vote early in person starting on September 25th. It’s fast, easy, and it could make the difference in this election.

Make your voice heard right away. Download your ballot request now and vote early for Barack.

Voting early is a great way for you to help our campaign take one step closer to victory.

Across Iowa, supporters like you are working together to grow this Campaign for Change and spread Barack’s message. We know Iowan families can’t afford another four or eight years of Bush-McCain policies.

We only have seven weeks until November 4th, but starting September 25th, every day is Election Day in Iowa.

Why wait? Request your vote by mail ballot online, right now:

http://iowa.barackobama.com/IA…

We can’t do this without you.

Thanks,

Tripp

Tripp Wellde

Iowa Field Director

Campaign for Change

P.S. — The success of this movement for change depends on supporters like you contributing more than your votes. Take the Iowa Call Challenge, reach out to voters using our new Neighbor to Neighbor tool, and have an opportunity to meet Barack or Joe:

http://iowa.barackobama.com/n2n

Note: My understanding is that the early votes cast will be counted during the day on election day and will be the first returns released by the Secretary of State’s office after the polls close. So don’t worry about your vote not getting counted.

Speaking of early voting, I highly recommend this diary by OrangeClouds115 about an innovative GOTV project in Ohio:

Ohio has a “golden week” – Sept 30 to Oct 6 – in which you can REGISTER AND VOTE all in the same day. That means no 8 hour lines, no finding out you aren’t registered and being stuck, no phony provisional ballots, etc. This is our chance to really GOTV before the other side goes into full gear with their SOTV campaigns (suppress out the vote).

But… we need help. Whatever you can give…people, cars, money, all of the above. And if you can’t do any of those things, rec this diary and forward the message on. Details below.

If you have maxed out to Obama and are looking for ways to put more money to work electing him president, this might be the project for you. OrangeClouds115 notes:

My thought about donating is that I would rather give my money to this campaign instead of directly to Obama because I know it’s going EXACTLY where it is most needed and actually resulting concretely in votes and also because NOT ONE PENNY OF IT is going to DC insider consultants. It is all going to activists who are using it as wisely as possible, sleeping on couches, sharing rides, and working around the clock.

Who’s voting early, and who prefers the old ritual of voting on election day?

Didn’t get this on my calendar of events, but I received this e-mail from the Obama-Biden campaign:

TODAY: Governor Sebelius to Visit Iowa; Has Five Questions Senator McCain Needs to Answer when he Returns to Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa – On Tuesday, September 16th, 2008, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius will visit Iowa on behalf of the Obama campaign.  Governor Sebelius will start her trip in Cedar Rapids where she will hold a town hall and present five questions that Senator McCain must answer when he returns to Iowa on Thursday.

Governor Sebelius will then travel to Iowa City for a brown bag lunch and to West Burlington for a town hall. The details of the events are:

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2008

10:15 AM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a town hall and present five questions that Senator McCain must answer when he returns to Iowa

IBEW Hall

1211 Wiley Blvd.

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Doors open at 9:45 AM CDT

12:15 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a brown bag lunch

Iowa City Public Library – Room A

123 S Linn St.

Iowa City, Iowa

Doors open at 11:45 AM CDT

3:40 PM CDT

Governor Sebelius to hold a town hall

Southeastern Community College – Room 123

1500 West Agency Road

West Burlington, Iowa

Doors open at 3:15 PM CDT

Post a comment or put up a diary if you get to one of these events. Sebelius campaigned in central Iowa last month.

UPDATE: Here is a statement from the Obama campaign on the questions Sebelius would like John McCain and Sarah Palin to answer:

Des Moines – Today, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and West Burlington, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius discussed with Iowans the five questions Senator McCain should answer to the people of Iowa during his trip to Iowa this Thursday.

“I know Senator McCain and Governor Palin would rather talk about anything other than the economy these days,” said Governor Sebelius.  “However, there are important questions that must be asked and answered, such as does Senator McCain honestly still believe the ‘fundamentals of our economy are strong?’”

5 QUESTIONS FOR MCCAIN AND/OR PALIN:

1.         Do you honestly believe that the “fundamentals of our economy are strong”?

BACKGROUND:

·        On Monday, John McCain said: “McCain: You know, that there’s been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street and it is — people are frightened by these events. Our economy, I think, still the fundamentals of our economy are strong. But these are very, very difficult times.”

·        That very same day, Lehman Brothers filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy and listed debts of $613 billion.

·        Americans have lost more than 600,000 jobs this year.

2.         Will you finally admit to the American people that Barack Obama offers more in tax relief to middle class families than you do?

BACKGROUND:

·        Barack Obama strongly believes in lowering taxes for middle class families, and will cut middle class taxes by 3 times as much as McCain.

·        The Obama economic plan will provide 95 percent of Iowa workers and their families with a $1,000 middle class tax cut.

·        According to an independent analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, Barack Obama offers a family making between $37,000 to $66,000 per year at tax cut of $1,042.  John McCain offers a family making the same amount a tax cut of only $319.

3.         Will you admit that your economic proposal provides $300 billion more in tax cuts to big corporations, yet leaves out 67 percent of Iowa households?

BACKGROUND:

·        John McCain wants to give oil companies an additional $4 billion in tax cuts, including giving Exxon Mobil an additional $1.2 billion.

4.         Where did you get the idea to force employees to start paying taxes on their health care benefits?

BACKGROUND:

·        McCain’s health care plan would raise taxes on working families by thousands of dollars because, under his plan, you’d have to start paying income taxes on your employer-provided health care benefits.

·        According to FactCheck.org, McCain’s plan could “eliminate job-based insurance altogether.”

5.         Do you think George W. Bush has been a great president?

BACKGROUND:

·        They share the same failed economic plan: more for the rich while leaving middle class behind.

·        Both support continuing to spend $10 billion in Iraq while domestic needs go unmet.

·        Both support short-sighted energy plans backed by oil interests.

·        Both support privatizing Social Security.

Meanwhile, John Deeth reports at Iowa Independent that Republicans are trying to gin up a new scandal over this comment by Sebelius in Iowa City:

“Have any of you noticed that Barack Obama is part African-American?” Sebelius asked in response to a question about why the election is so close. “That may be a factor. All the code language, all that doesn’t show up in the polls. And that may be a factor for some people.”

Only an idiot would claim that there aren’t a certain number of voters who would typically vote for a Democrat but are reluctant to support Obama because of his race. I ran into a woman in my precinct yesterday who told me her father-in-law is one of those people. She and her husband are encouraging him to stay home (rather than vote for McCain) if he is really unable to vote for Obama.

I believe Obama will be able to turn out enough new voters to compensate for the racially intolerant.

But let’s not pretend that certain Republicans are not using code words and phrases to emphasize Obama’s race. I think billmon was mostly on target in this post about the attacks on “community organizers” at the Republican convention being code for “ghetto activists.”

This post shows Fox “News” broadcasting Obama speaking in a box right next to footage from the OJ Simpson trial.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently reassured Republicans that they should not worry if McCain trails in the polls, because some racists will lie to pollsters and then vote against Obama.

As of today, it's 50 days until Election Day. Here are some analysis' of where the race stands right now.

MSNBC's First Read Blog:

Obama: 233; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 78

Likely Obama: 172 EV (the usual suspects)

Lean Obama: 61 EV (IA, MN, NM, OR, PA, WA)

Toss Up: 78 EV (CO, MI. NV, NH, OH, VA, WI)

Lean McCain: 67 EV (FL, IN, MO, MT, NC)

Likely McCain: 160 EV (the usual suspects)

Slate Election Scorecard:

Obama: 240; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 68

Likely Obama: 161 EV (the usual suspects, plus IA)

Lean Obama: 79 EV (WA, OR, NM, MN, WI, PA, NJ)

Toss Up: 68 EV (NV, CO, MI, OH, VA, NH, US at large)

Lean McCain: 131 EV (AZ, MT, ND, SD, TX, MO, AR, IN, NC, SC, FL)

Likely McCain: 96 EV (the usual suspects)

I’ll put up my weekly calendar of events sometime tomorrow, but I wanted to make sure to post these event announcements quickly:

Des Moines, Iowa – On Monday, September 15th, former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig and Sarah Sewall, Faculty Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, will visit Iowa on behalf of the Obama campaign.  Danzig and Sewall will hold national security forums in Grinnell, Marshalltown and Cedar Falls to discuss Senator Obama’s plans to move America in a new direction and make our country safer.

The details of the events are:

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15TH, 2008

12:30 PM CDT

National Security Forum with Richard Danzig and Sarah Sewall

Grinnell College, Joe Rosenfield Center – Room 209B, 1115 8th Ave in Grinnell

3:15 PM CDT

National Security Forum with Richard Danzig and Sarah Sewall

Iowa Veterans Home – Malloy Hall Bird Lounge

1301 Summit Street in Marshalltown

5:30 PM CDT

National Security Forum with Richard Danzig and Sarah Sewall

University of Northern Iowa, Maucker Student Union – Elm Room, 113 Mauker Union in Cedar Falls

Here’s a good brief summary of Jill Biden’s public events in Iowa on Friday and Saturday.

Christie Vilsack and about a dozen educators appeared alongside Biden in Mason City, where education was the main topic for discussion.

Then Biden visited Iowa Falls and the Iowa Veterans’ Home in Marshalltown, where she emphasized that ending the war and bringing the troops home would allow the U.S. to spend more on programs for veterans and the homeless.

She ended the day on Friday by speaking to a packed house in Waterloo.

Biden held a Saturday morning event in Independence and ended her tour in Dubuque, where Joe Biden had many strong supporters dating back to his previous presidential bid.

Since Iowa is not looking particularly competitive, we may have seen the last of Barack Obama before November. I still recommend getting out to rallies or town-hall meetings if a surrogate swings through your town. These are important for keeping supporters energized as well as for generating local news coverage of the campaign.

The Des Moines Register features its latest Iowa poll in the Sunday edition, showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. The poll surveyed 801 Iowans by telephone, including 616 who said they would definitely vote in November.

If you click the link you can read the exact wording of questions asked, but it’s not clear whether the likely voter screen involved anything other than whether a person said he or she would definitely vote.

It’s the second poll in a row to show Obama above 50 percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead. A Time/CNN poll taken after McCain selected Sarah Palin but before Palin and McCain spoke at the Republican convention showed Obama beating McCain 55-40 in Iowa, leading in every region of the state and even among rural voters.

Other findings from the Des Moines Register’s new Iowa poll:

Just 18 percent of respondents think the country is headed in the right direction, while 74 percent say it is on the wrong track.

George Bush is at 25 percent approval, 71 percent disapproval. Repeat after me: most unpopular president in history!

Tom Harkin leads Christopher Reed in the U.S. Senate race by 53 percent to 34 percent.

Chuck Grassley’s approval rating is still high at 69 percent. Democrats’ only hope is to pick up so many Senate seats this year that Grassley decides to throw in the towel before the 2010 election. He hasn’t been getting along too well with Iowa Republicans lately, and it’s never fun serving in the minority in Congress.

I love that McCain and Sarah Palin will waste part of this Thursday campaigning at the Eastern Iowa Airport outside Cedar Rapids. Sorry, but Iowa is not really a swing state in this year’s presidential race.

If you’re an Iowa political junkie, chances are you already met Barack Obama and/or Joe Biden sometime during 2007.

But in case you didn’t, you’ll be interested in this contest announcement, fresh from my inbox:

Dear [desmoinesdem] —

Take the Iowa Call Challenge

We want you to be the first to know — the Obama campaign is sending Barack Obama or Joe Biden to Iowa in the next couple of weeks, and you have the opportunity to meet one of them.

The catch? Help us grow this movement for change by taking the Iowa Call Challenge and talking to undecided voters across the state. The top five people who complete the most calls between Saturday, September 13th, and Saturday, September 20th, will have the opportunity to meet Barack or Joe.

And with our Neighbor to Neighbor online phone call tool, you can do it all from home. You’ll get a list of potential supporters, suggested topics to talk about, and an easy way to report back on who you’ve contacted.

Take the Iowa Call Challenge now and get the opportunity to meet Barack or Joe.

With less than eight weeks left until Election Day, November 4th, now is the time to start talking to fellow Iowans about this movement for change.

No previous experience is required. All you need is a passion for this campaign and a hunger for change. Talking to fellow Iowans, person to person, is the best way to spread this message and build toward victory in November.

Take the Iowa Call Challenge and have the opportunity to meet a leader of this movement:

http://iowa.barackobama.com/Io…

Thanks,

Tripp

Tripp Wellde

Iowa Field Director

Campaign for Change

This is quite a clever way to induce Democrats to make time for those phone calls right away.

I would be interested to know if similar contests are being held in other swing states on the upcoming itinerary for Obama or Biden.

Although it’s the weekend, I am trying to find out what kind of voters are being targeted in these “Neighbor to Neighbor” calls (newly registered voters, unreliable voters, independents, Democrats?). I will update this post if I get an answer from the Obama campaign.

After the jump I posted all of the Obama campaign’s events in Iowa this weekend, including appearances by Jill Biden Saturday morning in Independence and Saturday afternoon in Dubuque.

UPDATE: It sounds as if similar contests are being held in other swing states on the upcoming itinerary for Barack Obama or Joe Biden. According to sisterfish, the volunteers in Colorado who do the most canvassing this weekend will be invited to see Obama or get a picture with him when he’s in that state early next week. Adam Terando said the campaign did something similar to motivate volunteers before Obama’s last visit to North Carolina in August.  

Via Ben Smith at Politico, I learned that Planned Parenthood’s Action Fund has cut this great ad calling out John McCain for his own dishonest commercials:

This ad concisely answers McCain’s ludicrous charge related to the sex education program Barack Obama supports. But it does more in branding McCain as a politician who will say anything to get elected.

In other words, Planned Parenthood is not just answering an attack on Obama, it is also hitting McCain on the fake “straight talk” image he has cultivated for so many years.

No word yet on where these ads are airing, but I hope far and wide.

I’m not watching live, but apparently the Nation of Service forum, featuring John McCain and then Barack Obama, is on PBS and the cable networks now.

Daily Kos has a liveblog here.

Anyone feeling safer now that Sarah Palin told ABC’s Charlie Gibson that war with Russia may be necessary if Russia invades a country?

Josh Marshall captured this “awkward moment” when it’s obvious Palin has no idea what Gibson means by the “Bush doctrine.”

Count on the Republicans to cry “elitism” if Democrats suggest that the vice-presidential nominee should know something about foreign policy.

It’s hard to keep up with the Republican sleaze this week.

Michigan Republicans are planning to use foreclosure lists to suppress the vote in African-American neighborhoods:

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

[…]

One expert questioned the legality of the tactic.

“You can’t challenge people without a factual basis for doing so,” said J. Gerald Hebert, a former voting rights litigator for the U.S. Justice Department who now runs the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington D.C.-based public-interest law firm. “I don’t think a foreclosure notice is sufficient basis for a challenge, because people often remain in their homes after foreclosure begins and sometimes are able to negotiate and refinance.”

As for the practice of challenging the right to vote of foreclosed property owners, Hebert called it, “mean-spirited.”

Republicans in Columbus, Ohio may be planning to use the same tactic.

Speaking of Ohio, Marc Ambinder reports that push-polling against Obama appears to have started there as well as in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Don’t imagine that it’s only state-level GOP operatives taking the low road. John McCain’s latest television commercials on education accuse Obama of wanting to teach kindergartners about sex before they learn to read. David Sirota correctly points out that the law in question (on age-appropriate comprehensive sex education) called for protecting small children against child molesters by teaching them about inappropriate touching. If anything I think kindergarten is a little late to start teaching children about “good” and “bad” touches. This knowledge makes kids safer from sex predators.

In other news of the week, Republican spinmeisters are trying to gin up a scandal over Obama’s use of the phrase “lipstick on a pig.” Their fake outrage is even more hypocritical than it appears at first glance.

Also, CBS forced the McCain campaign to take down a “misleading” web ad.

Feel free to post a comment about anything I’ve left out.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that Sarah “I put the plane on eBay” Palin charged Alaska taxpayers for her family’s personal travel.

In addition, Palin’s ethics adviser urged the governor to apologize for “overreaching” in her desire for revenge against the Alaska state trooper who used to be her brother-in-law.

Newsweek cites court documents showing that the judge in the divorce case

was disturbed by the alleged attacks by Palin and her family members on Wooten’s behavior and character. “Disparaging will not be tolerated-it is a form of child abuse,” the judge told a settlement hearing in October 2005, according to typed notes of the proceedings.

I can’t remember who said it first, but I absolutely agree that in light of “troopergate” we need to worry about how a potential Vice President or President Palin would use the FBI against her personal as well as her political enemies.

Meanwhile, a whistleblower who worked for Cindy McCain during the 1990s asserts that John McCain

used his Senate staff and resources to cover up Cindy’s drug use, and potentially to prevent the Drug Enforcement Agency from investigating his wife’s theft of illegal prescription drugs.

Snud has a lot more detail on those allegations here

Abuse of power to cover up personal wrongdoing? Sounds like George Bush to me.

SECOND UPDATE: Naughty, naughty. The Wall Street Journal scrubbed the end of an article pointing out that while McCain criticizes earmarks, Palin requested more earmarked dollars per capita than any other governor.

Sometimes it’s amazing how many lies and misleading statements Republicans can fit into one 30-second television commercial:

This statement from Barack Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, is right on:

“Despite being discredited over and over again by numerous news organizations, the McCain campaign continues to repeat the lie that Sarah Palin stopped the Bridge to Nowhere.  John McCain has voted with George Bush 90% of the time and he and Sarah Palin will continue Bush’s economic policies, his health care policy, his education policy, his energy policy, and his foreign policy.  McCain and Palin will say or do anything to make people believe that they will change something besides the person sitting in the Oval Office.  That’s the kind of politics people are tired of, and it’s anything but change,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

The Obama campaign has also released an extensive fact check debunking almost every claim this ad makes. You can read it here:

http://blogs.creativeloafing.c…

It shows that contrary to the impression the commercial gives viewers:

-Senator McCain supported almost the entire George Bush agenda

-McCain voted for plenty of earmarks

-Governor Palin was originally for the Bridge to Nowhere

-Palin has been very close to the oil industry

and much more.

Regrettably, Obama did not do enough this summer to brand McCain as Bush’s third term as well as a liar who will say anything to win. Better late than never, though.

UPDATE: Excellent rapid response from the Obama campaign:

Hits McCain on the Washington lobbyists running his campaign and on voting with Bush more than 90 percent of the time. Hits Palin on being for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it. Great closer:

“Politicians lying about their records–you don’t call that ‘maverick.’ You call it more of the same.”

Obama simply cannot allow McCain to brand himself as the reform candidate who will bring change to Washington. He would bring more of the same failed Bush policies and corruption.

As a proud Iowan and the Iowa Communications Director for Barack Obama's presidential campaign, I urge anyone who cares about Iowa's future to watch the latest video post on www.mccainvsiowa.com.  This is an incredible video, as they all have been, and it shows us what is at stake in November.  Iowa is on the verge of becoming the renewable energy capitol of the United States, and John McCain has tried to block our progress at every turn.  View this video, email it to your friends, and let every Democrat, Republican and Independent know Iowa's future depends on election day.

Think Progress published a good summary of “What Conservatives Ignored” at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Click over for all the analysis and supporting links. Key excerpts:

THE ECONOMY: The American public views the struggling economy as the most important issue facing the country. But as AFP observed, “The economy may be the number one issue in the White House race, but the Republican National Convention has yet to dwell on the troubles of Americans trying to make ends meet.” On Wednesday, CNBC said its reporters were “darned to find much at all” about the economy in the convention speeches. In fact, housing was mentioned just once and the term “middle-class” was used only twice. […]

HEALTH CARE: At a town hall event last month, McCain declared, “There is a health care crisis in America. We would be, if it were not for the energy crisis, we’d be talking a lot more about health care issues.” But despite skyrocketing health care costs and millions of uninsured and underinsured Americans, nearly every prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention ignored this crisis. […]

GLOBAL WARMING: […] Republicans also ignored the obvious link between global warming and the increasing intensity of storms: the terms “global warming” and “climate change” were each mentioned just once. A new study published in the journal Nature this week found that “the strongest of hurricanes and typhoons have become even stronger over the past two and a half decades.” […] Despite McCain’s claims that he believes global warming is real, the GOP platform — which McCain has promised to run on — is loaded with caveats about the uncertainty of science and the need to ‘resist no-growth radicalism’ in taking on climate change.” […]

Speaking of what the Republicans didn’t talk about, watch this fantastic clip from a Joe Biden event yesterday. Partial transcript for those who don’t click over:

But, I’ll tell you, it’s not so much of what I heard in the Republican convention. When you heard John speak last night.  It’s not so much what I heard, when I heard part of what the Governor had to say, the vice presidential candidate.  It’s what I didn’t hear.

(Applause)

THE SILENCE – THE SILENCE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WAS DEAFENING.  IT WAS DEAFENING.  ON JOBS, ON HEALTH CARE, ON ENVIRONMENT, ON ALL THE THINGS THAT MATTER TO THE PEOPLE IN THE NEIGHBORHOODS I GREW UP IN.  DEAFENING!

(Standing Ovation)

Ladies and gentlemen, THEIR AMERICA IS NOT THE AMERICA I LIVE IN. THEY SEE SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAN I SEE.

Ladies and gentlemen, literally, those of you, I can’t swear to this because I didn’t see every bit of every speech. But I asked my staff to check. Do any of you recall either candidate on the Republican ticket utter the phrase, middle class?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did any of you hear them utter the phrase, health care and how we’re going to help?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them talk about aid to get kids to college?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them talk about aid to education?

Crowd: No!

Biden: Did you hear them putting more cops on the street to make us safer?

Crowd: No!

Biden: I didn’t hear a thing, a thing, about any of the things that matter to the lives of the people of my hometown of Scranton….

Rick Davis, John’s campaign manager, said two days into the convention, he said “this election is not about issues.”  That’s what he said.  And everything I saw at the convention demonstrated that.

It was about how well placed — and boy she is good — how a left jab can be stuck pretty nice.  It’s about how Barack Obama is such a bad guy.

It’s about how in fact, how in fact, they got great quips.  Man, they’re like the kids you know when you went to school and you were very proud of the new belt or the shoes you had, and there was always one kid in the class who said, “oh, are they your brother’s?”

Crowd: Yeah.

Remember that kid?  That’s what this is reminding me of.  “Oh, I love your dress, was that your mother’s?”

You know what I’m talking about.

What do you talk about, when you have nothing to say?!

What do you talk about when you CANNOT EXPLAIN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS OF FAILURE?!

(Standing Ovation)

What do you talk about?!  What do you talk about?!

You talk about the other guy.

Speaking of McCain’s acceptance speech (transcript here), I didn’t think it was well-written. If there are any aspiring speechwriters out there, you want to avoid drafting passages like this:

I will keep taxes low and cut them where I can. My opponent will raise them. I will open new markets to our goods and services. My opponent will close them. I will cut government spending. He will increase it.

My tax cuts will create jobs. His tax increases will eliminate them. My health care plan will make it easier for more Americans to find and keep good health care insurance. His plan will force small businesses to cut jobs, reduce wages, and force families into a government run health care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.

The crowd kept interrupting with boos after McCain’s description of what Obama would do. It came across as very negative.

These contrasts should have been flipped around so that the crowd kept interrupting McCain with applause after he compared his opponent’s plans with his own ideas. You want television viewers to see the audience repeatedly cheering the nominee.

A whole lot of television viewers saw McCain: Nielsen estimates that he drew a slightly bigger television audience than Obama did when speaking at Invesco field in Denver. Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday was watched by almost as many people.

NCDem Amy brings you the video of Rachel Maddow daring to call Republican lying what it is.

Speaking of lying, a new ad from McCain and the Republican National Committee says Obama is the candidate who would bring you “more of the same.”

If you were wondering why McCain started talking in front of a green screen on Thursday night, it’s because he was standing in front the grass at the bottom of a huge photo. It turned out to be Walter Reed Middle School in California (presumably they had intended to use Walter Reed Medical Center, where wounded soldiers are treated, as a backdrop).

Anne Kilkenny, a Wasilla resident who knows Palin well, wrote this piece about her that has become a viral e-mail.

Here’s another piece about Palin by a longtime resident of Alaska.

I’m with this guy: when it comes to Palins, I’ll take Michael Palin of Monty Python. (No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!)

UPDATE: Reacting to McCain’s repeated promises to “fight” in his acceptance speech, Senator Barbara Boxer of California notes that she has seen McCain fight many times: against raising the minimum wage, against equal pay for equal work, against access to birth control …

Details to follow from the Obama campaign. It will be Biden’s first Iowa visit since the caucuses. Expect a very big crowd.

Here’s a good diary about a Biden town-hall meeting in Sarasota this week, with video. He still answers questions for an hour or more at his campaign stops.

Speaking of which, John McCain’s campaign has announced that vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin will not take questions from journalists before the election. No press conferences, no Sunday-morning talk shows. Will this force journalists to drop their questioning of Palin’s record in Alaska and familiarity with basic matters of domestic and foreign policy?

Palin won’t be in seclusion–she’ll be doing about 30 fundraisers in the next 60 days.

UPDATE: Enjoy this post by Al Rodgers about a Biden event on Friday. Click the link to watch a short video clip or read the transcript.

SECOND UPDATE: Here are the details about the Biden event:

Rally with Joe Biden

Paul R. Knapp Animal Learning Center

Iowa State Fairgrounds

East University Ave. and East 30th St.

Des Moines, IA 50317

Monday, September 8th

Doors Open: 2:15 p.m.

Program Time: 3:15 p.m.

RSVP

http://iowa.barackobama.com/bi…

The event is free and open to the public; tickets are not required but an RSVP is encouraged. Space is available on a first come, first served basis.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.

Watch this fantastic answer by Barack Obama when asked on Thursday why being a community organizer is relevant experience for the presidency:

Greg Sargent posted the video of the entire brief press conference here. I agree with Sargent on Obama’s response to Sarah Palin’s criticism of him:

Great line at the end: “I’ve been called worse on the basketball court. It’s not that big of a deal.”

Dismissive, contemptuous, and perpetually bemused by the new lows of buffoonery and pettiness that the GOP sinks to on a now-daily basis. Keep that tone going.

Obama is really good at staying cool and not rising to the bait. In contrast, John McCain is a hothead, and I expect that comparison to work in our favor as the campaign progresses.

I was less impressed by Obama spokesman Bill Burton’s response to McCain’s speech tonight. It sounds less natural, more like canned talking points.

As McCain was wrapping up his speech, Hillary Clinton released this statement:

“The two party conventions showcased vastly different directions for our country. Senator Obama and Senator Biden offered the new ideas and positive change America needs and deserves after eight years of failed Republican leadership. Senator McCain and Governor Palin did not.

“After listening to all of the speeches this week, I heard nothing that suggests the Republicans are ready to fix the economy for middle class families, provide quality affordable health care for all Americans, guarantee equal pay for equal work for women, restore our nation’s leadership in a complex world or tackle the myriad of challenges our country faces.

“So, to slightly amend my comments from Denver: NO WAY, NO HOW, NO McCAIN-PALIN.”

Great stuff, and I hear she will take this message to Florida on Monday.

By the way, Joe Biden has been campaigning in Florida this week, and here’s a good write-up of a town-hall meeting in Sarasota, with video.

I’ve been saying for months that Obama has no chance of beating McCain in Florida, but I am revising that opinion. Obama’s choice of Biden will serve him well among Jews and voters over 60, while Palin will alienate Jews and probably won’t help McCain with seniors.

Put Biden and Clinton to work in Florida, and Obama has an outside shot at this state with a solid GOTV effort. At the very least, McCain will have to work to hold this state.

After the jump I’ve posted a fundraising e-mail from Obama in response to the way “the Republicans mocked, dismissed, and actually laughed out loud at Americans who engage in community service and organizing.”

I really have no idea how Alaska Governor Sarah Palin went over last night with voters who are not already strongly committed Republicans. I will reserve judgment until we see the next round of polls from must-hold states for John McCain, such as Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

Huffington Post reported on the reaction from focus groups of married and unmarried supporters of Hillary Clinton. I recommend reading the whole article, but here’s an excerpt:

First, women in both groups were impressed with Palin’s speaking ability and poise. But they were hardly convinced that she was qualified to be vice president, or that she truly represented the “change” they were looking for, especially in light of what was deemed an overly harsh “sarcasm” pervading her address. […]

In the “married” group, when one attendee kicked off the discussion by saying “she’s a good speaker, and a crowd pleaser,” the rest of the room articulated their agreement. “I didn’t expect to be as impressed as I was,” said another respondent. But then another woman added: “Once she started mudslinging, I thought, it’s the same old crap as other politicians. McCain used her to get the women’s vote. And she’s using McCain.”

“Thank you,” another woman responded. “That really upset me; there was no need for that. It was snippy.”

The unmarried group also voiced similar objections to the harsh, partisan edge of Palin’s remarks. “I’m not impressed with her at all as a person,” one said, citing her “finger pointing” and general sarcasm after the group had generally agreed that she was a talented public speaker.

Natasha Chart, who grew up in a conservative, religious family, posted a fascinating commentary on last night’s proceedings at MyDD, complete with King James Bible quotations. She notes that

Jesus didn’t ask the faithful to give good speeches. He didn’t ask of them that they should be from small towns, or some certain geographic region. He asked that they do something real, something material, to lighten the loads of their fellow travelers in this life.

Marc Ambinder thinks Palin may have just made Barack Obama “yesterday’s news”:

Sarah Palin is, quite simply, the celebrity of September. Interest in her will be enormous. Just as Democrats painted on Barack Obama’s blank canvass in January and February of 2007, Republicans and independents will get the chance to fill in their view of Gov. Palin. She’s the new thing. The object of curiosity. The press and the larger media will obsess over her and her family and her life.

TruthMatters thinks the Republicans lost a huge opportunity when they cut the biographical video on Palin out of last night’s program:

First they lead into her with Romney and Rudy, basically putting the country on notice, We Are Republicans And We Mean Business.

They GOP is basically telling us now, that the culture wars are back and they mean it.

Then they go into the prime time hour, the thing millions of American’s are going to see, is nothing but Rudy and Palin non-stop attacking democrats and anyone who is NOT a Republican.

And Rudy really screwed it up, because he ran long and they didn’t play her video. Her Video was suppose to make America fall in love with her, anyone remember, Michelle’s, Hillary’s, Joes, and Obama’s from last week? They NEEDED that video tonight to introduce her, espeically if this was how she was going to come out. She gave no substance, nothing but attacks, she showed us she was a hard right Republican, and she means business.

Now her base loved it. she is getting rave reviews from the right. This from redstate.com says it all “Sarah Palin. An Amazing, Historic, Epic Win.” but here is the problem. In their sheer hubris is all I can say, they seem to think that they are still the majority in this country. What they are ignoring is they are turning off every non-republican in this country. Since the convention and Sarah’s introduction, Obama has taken the lead in independents and increased his Democratic numbers.

The GOP has seem to have forgotten that Sarah was suppose to reach out to independents and the frustrated Hillary supporters, because there aren’t enough GOP voters anymore their party numbers are down. but instead they are now stuck with the 2004 strategy of excite the base and get out to vote.

For a “real vetting roundup” on Palin, read this post by georgia10.

Kos notes that the Republican convention is drawing fewer television viewers than the GOP convention four years ago and a far smaller audience than the Democratic convention drew last week. CORRECTION: the latest ratings show Palin drew almost as large an audience last night as Obama did last Thursday.

I still think selecting Palin was a huge mistake for McCain, whose main talking point against Obama was that he lacked sufficient experience to lead.

Also, give me a break from the talking point about Palin having “more executive experience than Obama and Biden combined,” as if Obama and Biden’s in-depth knowledge and experience crafting federal policy is worth less than being a small-town mayor and serving half a term as governor.

Watch this great clip from last night’s Daily Show, which juxtaposes Karl Rove on Palin’s tremendous experience with what Rove said about Virginia Governor Tim Kaine a few weeks ago. Kaine has served as governor for longer than Palin, managing a state much larger than Alaska. Before that Kaine was lieutenant governor of Virginia, and before that he was mayor of Richmond, a much larger city than Wasilla, Alaska. Jon Stewart noted that “Karl Rove is bitterly divided on the experience issue.”

After the jump I have posted the text of a mass e-mail from Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe. He specifically takes Palin and Rudy Giuliani to task for mocking Obama’s experience as a community organizer. That was certainly one of the low points of Palin’s speech, in my opinion. At least George H.W. Bush pretended to value community activists (“1000 points of light”) twenty years ago.

UPDATE: For the full text of Palin’s speech, click here.

Small-town native Mike Lux had this reaction:

while I appreciated Sarah Palin’s tribute to small-town values at one point in her speech, the values she exhibited in the rest of the speech were not the ones I recognized from the small towns I know. […]

The Sarah Palin I saw last night had a mean streak a mile wide. If me or my brothers and sisters would have been as sarcastic and demeaning to someone as Sarah Palin was last night, my mom would have sent us to our room. I know that Palin was just trying to be funny when she compared herself to a pit bull, but she was just about as nasty as one, and in the dog-loving families I know from small-town America, people generally prefer dogs that will play well with kids and neighbors. And the community organizers that Palin made so much fun of [are] the folks who organized the potluck suppers at church and the Lions Club charities, the ones who really made those small towns go.

Lux should understand that when Palin made fun of community organizers, she wasn’t talking about people who run church potlucks in small towns. I tend to agree with billmon:

Used the way the GOP speakers used the words tonight (i.e. with a sneer), community = ghetto and organizer = activist.

It essentially was a coded way of pointing out Obama’s work in, with and for the black community (see? even I’m doing it) on the South Side of Chicago. Also the fact that his work involved helping low-income people stand up for their legal rights, as opposed to a GOP-sanctioned “real” job like business owner or career military officer (or moose hunter.) They were trying to put Obama back on the same level as Jesse Jackson — i.e., the black protest candidate — and mocking him for it.

Ben Smith reported yesterday at Politico that Barack Obama’s campaign is running radio ads about John McCain’s stand on abortion. His readers reported hearing the ads in at least seven states, including Iowa.

I heard this ad in the car yesterday on two Des Moines-area radio stations: the oldies station KIOA, and once on LITE 104.1. LITE heavily skews toward female listeners. I don’t know about the gender breakdown of KIOA listeners, but that station generally appeals to an older audience, many of whom would remember when abortion was illegal.

Because I was driving, I was unable to take notes on the ad. Audio does not seem to be available at the Obama campaign website.

This morning I was heard a longer version of the same ad on both the LITE station and the oldies station. I was able to take notes, but this is not a verbatim transcript.

UPDATE: Edited out my rough transcript and replaced with the script Smith published at Politico:

   OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.

   VAL BARON: As a nurse practitioner with Planned Parenthood, I know abortion is one of the most difficult decisions a woman will ever make. I’m Val Baron. Let me tell you: If Roe v Wade is overturned, the lives and health of women will be put at risk.  That’s why this election is so important.  John McCain’s out of touch with women today. McCain wants to take away our right to choose. That’s what women need to understand. That’s how high the stakes are.

   ANNCR: As president, John McCain will make abortion illegal.  McCain says quote, “I do not support Roe v. Wade. It should be overturned.” And listen to McCain’s answer on Meet the Press:

       RUSSERT: “A constitutional amendment to ban all abortions. You’re for that?”

       McCAIN: “Yes, sir.”

   VAL BARON: We can’t let John McCain take away our right to choose. We can’t let him take us back.

   ANNCR: Paid for by Obama for America.

The short version of the radio ad does not have the Planned Parenthood nurse practitioner speaking at the beginning. Otherwise, it is identical, beginning where the female voice-over picks up.

A few points worth noting about this ad:

It does not mention Sarah Palin or the fact that McCain picked an anti-choice running mate. The entire focus is on McCain’s record on abortion.

Including the undated audio clip with Russert and McCain is effective, in my opinion. That is more memorable than anything a voice-over could say about McCain’s position on abortion.

I prefer the long version of the ad, because I think it’s powerful to have a nurse say abortion is a difficult decision for women. The anti-choice forces try to make it sound as if pro-choice people celebrate or even encourage “abortion on demand.” However, most Americans understand that whatever their own views about the issue, abortion is not something women take lightly. Complicated personal circumstances lead to the decision.

These ads mark a major shift in strategy for the Obama campaign. Up to now, the campaign has been emphasizing economic issues rather than abortion at its women’s outreach events. Click the link to read about the Obama women’s event I attended a few weeks ago, during which Roe v Wade was only mentioned in passing.

Although Democratic candidates have not often made abortion the focus of paid advertising, I think this is a smart ad. Way too many women wrongly believe McCain is pro-choice. Even my stepmother, who is well-informed politically, thought that.

Now that McCain has played his hand and picked a running mate who appeals to evangelicals seeking to overturn Roe v. Wade, it’s the right time to educate pro-choice women about McCain’s true record on the issue.

The potential downside is that these ads will increase McCain’s support among anti-choice voters. Although McCain scores zero on Progressive Punch’s rankings on abortion as well as a perfectly anti-choice zero on Planned Parenthood’s scorecard, many evangelical conservatives believe McCain does not have a pro-life voting record.

Incredibly, some figures on the Christian right believe McCain has a pro-abortion voting record (see here for more details on that perspective).

This ad makes crystal clear that McCain would make abortion illegal if elected president.

On the other hand, McCain has presumably already energized anti-choice voters by selecting Palin for vice-president. Also, I have yet to see any poll showing that a majority of Americans would like to see abortion criminalized.

Please put up a comment if you have heard these ads, with details about when and what kind of radio station aired them.