Added some new events to the calendar. Note: if you would like me to cover events featuring any particular elected official, please encourage that Democrat’s staff to send me notices (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com).

Less than two weeks remain before the election. If you have time to volunteer this weekend, please contact a Democratic office to offer to help. Remember, there are many ways to help that do not involve phone calls to strangers or knocks on strangers’ doors.

If you live in the fourth or fifth Congressional districts, I encourage you to volunteer for Becky Greenwald or Rob Hubler. Or, contact the nearest field office for Barack Obama’s campaign.

Thanks to the prominent Iowa Democrats who are campaigning with Greenwald and Hubler this weekend.

One Iowa is also coordinating a “Weekend for Equality” volunteer effort. For more information, click here.

If nothing else, vote early so that other volunteers do not waste their time contacting you.

Please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if you know of another important event I’ve missed.

Saturday, October 25:

Iowa Veterans for Obama will be collecting clothing for Disabled Veterans of America across the street from Hy-Vee Hall at 777 Third Street (corner of 3rd and Center) in Des Moines, beginning around 10:30 am.

Tom Harkin and Becky Greenwald will hold a pre-GOTV rally at 2:30 pm at Iowa Central Community College, Career Ed Building Rooms 108-110, One Triton Circle in Fort Dodge.

Rob Hubler’s campaign has the following public events scheduled:

1 p.m., Sioux City Rally for Real Representation.

Special Guests: Governor Tom Vilsack and Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan

The Sanford Community Center

1700 Geneva St, Sioux City, IA

2:30 p.m., Le Mars Rally for Real Representation.

Special Guests IDP Chairman Scott Brennan and HD 3 candidate TJ Templeton

Plymouth County Democrats office

27 Central Ave Northwest, Le Mars, IA

3:45 p.m., Orange City Rally for Real Representation.

Special Guests IDP Chairman Scott Brennan, HD 3 candidate TJ Templeton,

HD 4 candidate James Van Bruggen

De Koffiehoek & Bistro

819 Lincoln Pl SE, Orange City, IA

5 p.m., Sheldon Rally for Real Representation. Special Guest IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Family Table Restaurant

710 2nd Ave, Sheldon, IA

7 p.m., Fundraiser and dinner with Special Guest IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

(free will offering graciously accepted)

Minerva’s Restaurant

1405 Highway 71 N, Okoboji, IA

Former Republican Congressman Jim Leach will also headline two Republicans for Obama events:

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH, 2008

10:00 AM

Supporter Coffee with Congressman Jim Leach

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

517 1st St. NW

Mason City, Iowa

12:00 PM Noon

“Republicans for Obama” Event with Congressman Jim Leach

Location TBA

Waterloo, Iowa

The Motor Mill Foundation will host a benefit concert by Big Blue Sky at the Elkader Opera House at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday, October 25. There will be a guest appearance by singer/songwriter Dave Moore of Iowa City. Doors open for a silent auction at 6:30 p.m. Tickets are $15. All proceeds go to preservation of the Motor Mill Historic Site on the Turkey River near Elkader. For details, go to www.motormill.org, or call Larry Stone at 1-888-807-1828.

Sunday, October 26:

Rob Hubler will attend a House Party with Senator Mike and Connie Gronstal at noon. Special Guest IDP Chairman Scott Brennan. 220 Bennett Avenue,

Council Bluffs, IA

At 1:30 pm, Scott Brennan will thank volunteers in the Council Bluffs office of the Obama campaign, 117 North 16th Street in Council Bluffs.

At 3 p.m., Hubler will hold a rally in Sioux City (details TBA)

Justin Roberts and the Not Ready for Naptime Players will perform at Merle Hay Mall in Des Moines (lower court) at 1 pm. Bring money even though the show is free, because you’ll want to buy some CDs.

Monday, October 27:

Congressman Bruce Braley will debate his Republican challenger, David Hartsuch, on KUNI radio from noon to 1 pm.

The Department of Natural Resources will be holding another public meeting to discuss proposed rule changes for public lands (see above) from 6-8 pm at the Dickinson County Community Building, 1602 15th St., in Spirit Lake. For more information, contact Inga Foster at 515-281-8967.

From the Sierra Club of Iowa’s e-mail loop:

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa — The Dry Run Creek Watershed Management Project will be the topic of a lecture hosted by the University of Northern Iowa Department of Earth Science at 4 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27, in Latham Hall, Room 125.

Rebecca Kauten, UNI alumna and urban coordinator in the Watershed Assessment and Monitoring Section of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) will speak on “Water Quality in the Built Environment: Examples from a Local Watershed Project.” Her presentation will focus on Dry Run Creek, an impaired watershed, and efforts to implement best management practices in the drainage basin.

The lecture is free and open to the public. For more information, contact Jim Walters, professor and head, UNI Department of Earth Science, at (319) 273-2707.

Earlier this month I suggested that it may be time to focus on the down-ticket races and not the presidential contest, especially in states like Iowa where Barack Obama has a big lead on John McCain. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has made the same argument in a more scholarly way. Volunteer and financial resources are better spent on close races where a little extra could make a difference.

When I’ve discussed this issue with some Obama supporters, they object that it’s important for Obama to win with a big mandate, so he can accomplish more during his presidency. I have never found that argument very persuasive, because even if he has a huge margin of victory, I expect Obama to compromise and move halfway toward the Republican position on many issues. I just don’t believe he has the personality of a Lyndon Johnson, who used his mandate to push big reforms through Congress, bills that changed this country forever. I see Obama as a conciliator who won’t want to rock the boat in Washington.

However, I find myself agreeing more with a different argument for continuing to focus on the presidential race.

Almost every time I turn on the radio I hear some ad from McCain/Palin or the Republican National Committee about “Congressional liberals” or Obama wanting to take your money and spend it on big government programs. Most of these commercials are based on claims that have been debunked by a dozen fact-checkers (like the idea that Obama would raise taxes on families making only $42,000 a year).

Republicans are also paying for sleazy robocalls saying Obama doesn’t want to protect children from criminals and doesn’t want to jail rapists and murderers. This follows an extensive robocall campaign hyping Obama’s very tenuous link to William Ayers (formerly of the Weathermen).

A new direct-mail piece paid for by the Republican National Committee claims Obama thinks terrorists “just need a good talking to.”

Republicans are taking every cliche they’ve used against Democratic presidential candidates for 30 years and amping them up to new levels of deceit.

It’s not enough to narrowly defeat this slime.

A crushing victory for Obama in a high-turnout election would send a strong message that Americans reject these scare tactics. It would also demoralize the Republican elite and donor base who count on this kind of messaging to win elections. They don’t have many other tricks in their book, because their policy agenda is out of step with the values of most Americans.

So go ahead and work toward a bigger landslide than Obama needs, in Iowa and across the country.

But don’t forget to GOTV for our down-ticket candidates too.

Two websites are keeping comprehensive lists of newspaper endorsements for Barack Obama and John McCain:

Editor and Publisher:

The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements, by 105 to 33, a better than 3-1 margin, […]

In a real shocker, two solid Bush papers in 2004, the Houston Chronicle and Austin American-Statesman, also came out for Obama today. So did the more traditionally Democratic the News & Obsever in Raleigh and the Orlando Sentinel, both in key battleground states.

Obama’s lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205.

Cheers to the Mason City Globe-Gazette, one of more than two dozen newspapers that endorsed Obama despite backing Bush four years ago.

DemConWatch’s newspaper endorsement list is particularly helpful because they indicate which party the newspaper favored in 2004, and they have a separate column listing all the newspapers in the top 100 by circulation that have not yet endorsed a presidential candidate.

Many newspapers have cited McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as a reason for endorsing Obama. That includes Republican papers like the Houston Chronicle and the Chicago Tribune, which is endorsing a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 161 years.

I wouldn’t exaggerate the importance of newspaper endorsements, but this trend underscores how many Republicans have lost confidence in the McCain/Palin ticket.

I was shocked when an old family friend told me over the weekend that he’d voted for Obama. He caucused for McCain in January, and he doesn’t think Obama will do a very good job, but he didn’t want to take the chance of Palin ever becoming president.

This is a devastating blow to John McCain’s candidacy. Watch Colin Powell explain his reasoning at length here:

He is impressed by Obama’s style and substance, by Obama’s choice of running mate, and by the way Obama has handled himself during the economic crisis. He admires McCain but is disturbed by the choice of Sarah Palin (whom Powell does not consider ready to be president) and the way McCain and senior Republicans have tried to attack Obama this fall.

Powell is not my favorite person, but the media love him, and millions of Americans admire him. I’d been hearing rumors for months that Powell might endorse Obama, but I was skeptical.

Also in the news this weekend, Obama’s campaign announced that they raised $150 million in September, and Obama drew crowds of 100,000 in St. Louis and 75,000 in Kansas City yesterday.

Time is running out for McCain. I don’t see how he changes the dynamic.

UPDATE: So I took the kids to “sample Sunday” at Picket Fence Creamery in Woodward today, and there was a car parked in the lot with a bumper sticker I’d never seen. It asked, “Who will be your commander in chief?” On the left side, there was a head shot of McCain with an American flag backdrop, and on the right was that photo of Obama in Muslim garb when he visited Africa. A woman was sitting in the car talking to some people standing next to it. As I walked by, I said, “Colin Powell doesn’t agree with your bumper sticker.”

They looked confused, so I said, “Colin Powell said this morning that he’s voting for Obama. I guess he knows what it takes to be commander in chief.”

That felt good.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign announced on October 20 that they are canceling this event so that Obama can visit his grandmother, who is seriously ill.

I was surprised to read in the Des Moines Register tonight that Barack Obama plans to hold a public rally in the Des Moines area this Thursday, October 23.

Frankly, I think he ought to be spending his time in other states, in light of the polling average that has him leading John McCain by 11 points in Iowa. Also, note these statistics from the Register article:

Obama has 120 paid staff working out of 50 offices throughout the state. Meanwhile, McCain has about a quarter the staff and 16 offices.

Obama’s campaign also reports having 6,000 volunteers, including neighborhood-level campaign leaders in roughly 90 percent of Iowa’s more than 1,700 precincts.

I wonder who won last month’s “Iowa Call Challenge” for a chance to meet Obama in person on his next visit.

On Wednesday, I hurried out of school at lunch to go see John Kerry at the Iowa Veterans Home. Kerry was in Iowa today campaigning for Barack Obama. He made stops in Waterloo, Marshalltown, Ames, Waukee, and Des Moines.

The event was scheduled to start at 11;30, but I couldn't leave school until 11:40. Knowing there was a good chance that the event would start a few minutes behind schedule, I thought I'd get to see a good portion of it. However, the event must have started on time because I only caught the last few questions.

Kerry was asked by a veteran about the possibility of another economic stimulus check. The person said many residents of the Iowa Veterans Home were not eligible for a stimulus check and if they give out another one if something could be done. Kerry said that the government needs to focus on creating jobs and not on writing more checks.

Kerry was then asked by a man, who is supporting Obama and is Catholic, about the abortion issue.

As I was walking out, there were veterans registering to vote and filling out requests for absentee ballots. I didn't get a head count of how many people were there, but you could feel the excitement for the upcoming election in the room.

Saturday, October 18, Barack Obama’s campaign will have canvassers knocking on doors in all 99 Iowa counties. The details of the canvasses in Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Des Moines, Dubuque, Mason City, Ottumwa, Sioux City and Waterloo are after the jump.

Click here for details about many of the other canvasses going on around the state today.

Click here to find your local field office, which you can contact to ask about other volunteer opportunities.

The Obama campaign also has set up a voter information hotline, 877 – IA08VOTE, for Iowans to call to get information on how they can vote.

There is more information about early voting at http://iowa.barackobama.com.  

(Yes, I know it's really 18 and I'm two days late.)

What Changed?

Really, not much has changed. If you look at where things were last week (Obama gaining ground, McCain losing it) this week is just an extension of those trends. With two Presidential debates and the VP debates under the voters' belts (the polls haven't quite caught up to Wednesday's debate yet), the map continues to look very blue, even if some individual states are fluctuating.

Obama holds all last week's “likely” and “lean” states, with Michigan and Pennsylvania (38 EV) moving from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”. FL, CO, NH and VA (52 EV) move from “toss up” to “lean Obama”.

West Virginia and North Dakota (8 EV) join the toss-up states this week, with McCain leading in WV by 2.8% and in ND by just .5% Of all the current “toss up” states, Obama leads in NV, MO, OH and NC. McCain leads in ND, WV and IN.

In a troubling sign for McCain, Montana moves back into “lean McCain” and for the first time, so does Georgia (18 EV combined).

Where they stand:

Obama:  Start picking out furniture and interviewing for your cabinet members. Only a major scandal or historic national event could derail the O train at this point.

The only question now is this: Does Obama focus on running up the score by campaigning for himself in tossup states and “lean McCain” states, or does he slow down and shift tactics.  He could, for example start holding rallies with (but really for) close congressional candidates, even in strong red or blue states. Or, he could slowly reduce his campaign schedule and start focusing on the transition team as some have suggested.

McCain: It's probably over. If McCain can win four or five of the tossup states  he can potentially avoid the election being called a “landslide”.

However, given what it might take to do that (serious $ and mud slinging), it might benefit McCain to focus on salvaging his reputation by ratcheting down the attack ads and vicious sentiment and running a more honorable and humane campaign. Like Obama, McCain may be able and better served to shift some resources and time to congressional races. 

According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 99.5%  of the last 1000 simulations, with an average electoral vote of 340 to McCain's 198.

If the election were held today, and  every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a landslide–364-174 electoral votes.

When John McCain won the Florida primary, putting him well on the way to sealing the Republican nomination, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach. I had been hoping the GOP would nominate Mitt Romney. Not only did many religious conservatives deeply distrust Romney, I felt he would be easy to expose as a phony say-anything-to-win kind of politician. In contrast, McCain was a media darling with a “maverick” image, even though he also flip-flopped on many issues while seeking the presidency.

Many factors favored the Democrats this year, in particular George W. Bush’s rock-bottom approval ratings and the lopsided right direction/wrong track numbers every pollster has found. But it seemed to me in February that the Republicans had nominated their strongest general-election candidate, while our two remaining primary contenders seemed to me to have big hurdles to overcome in the general.

When McCain frittered away the spring and early summer, reshuffling his campaign staff several times, I started to realize he was a weaker candidate than I’d previously believed. Watching McCain’s excrutiatingly long non-answer on whether insurance companies that cover Viagra should also cover birth control pills, I remember thinking that Romney would never have fumbled that question so badly. He would have had a slick reply along safe Republican lines, such as, “I don’t think the government should be in the business of telling private insurers what to cover.”

After Obama picked Joe Biden as a running mate, Republican talking heads were all over the lack of executive experience on the Democratic ticket. Of course McCain doesn’t have any either, and his running mate was mayor of a small town (where the city manager did most of the work) and then a governor who abused her power less than halfway through her first term. Romney had a legitimate claim to executive experience, having run a large company and then a state government. Would he have made as dumb a VP pick as McCain did? I doubt it.

Each time McCain loses a debate to Obama, I’ve thought that Romney would have done better on the stage. Sure, he was a big phony, but he carried himself with more confidence and spoke with more authority in his voice. Perhaps Obama would have won all the post-debate polls anyway, but I think Romney would have made it closer.

I also think Romney would have been a stronger voice for Republicans on economic policy in light of this fall’s meltdown in the banking sector and stock market. Here’s the Republican National Committee’s latest ad, pounding Obama on his inexperience in connection with the current financial crisis:

Obama’s relative inexperience is a vulnerability, but he has handled himself well this fall and done a good job answering the economic questions in all three debates. McCain has seemed erratic by comparison. Romney would have been able to play his “I know the business sector” card, and I doubt he would have tried to get the first debate delayed, which looked like an odd stunt from McCain.

Along the same lines, watch this brand-new ad from McCain and try to tell me Romney wouldn’t have been more credible delivering this message:

Romney would have looked more confident and sounded more polished. Also, Romney’s biography would make it easier to believe he had a plan to restore people’s savings, jobs and financial security.

Most important, Romney has not been in Congress for the last eight years, voting with President Bush more than 90 percent of the time. McCain has, which is the focus of this brand-new ad from Obama:

By the way, the Service Employees International Union put together a very clever ad on the theme of McCain being the same as Bush (or worse).

I acknowledge that Romney probably would have lost the general election. The economic indicators and trends in voter registration point to a Democratic wave. Romney’s past history of supporting abortion rights and even gay rights would have created major problems with part of the Republican base. Also, perhaps there would have been great resistance to electing a Mormon president. (For what it’s worth, I think Romney would be the GOP nominee if not for his religion.)

But McCain is just not running a good campaign, and the economic issues, where McCain is weak, have more salience now than the military and security issues that are allegedly McCain’s strengths. It’s hard for me to believe that Romney would have done worse against Obama.

What do you think?

UPDATE: The emergence of “Joe the Plumber” strengthens my case. McCain mentioned him about 20 times during last night’s debate, apparently without sufficient vetting. It turns out that Joe the Plumber is not a licensed plumber, owes back taxes, and is a registered Republican (not an independent). Oh yeah, and he’s also related to Charles Keating’s son-in-law (as in “Keating Five” Charles Keating).

Would the Romney campaign have staked so much on “Joe the Plumber” without doing due diligence? I don’t think so.

Barack Obama has a big psychological edge going into his final debate with John McCain. He leads McCain in all of the recent nationwide polls and in most of the key swing state polls, giving him a big lead in the projected electoral vote. McCain desperately needs to have the debate of his life and hope that Obama makes a big mistake.

Deep pessimism appears to have set in among the Republican political and pundit class, as you will learn if you read this Daily Kos diary: GOP Rats Deserting the USS McCain in Titanic Proportions. It’s chock full of quotes from angry or dejected Republicans.

Another piece that’s gotten a lot of traction today is this e-mail Ben Smith received from a demoralized Republican operative. This guy convened a focus group to test a hard-hitting ad linking Obama to terrorists among other things. The group believed his ad but are planning to vote for Obama anyway. Even though they think he’ll be a bad president. Even a woman who thinks Obama himself was in the Weathermen is planning to vote for him because of the health care issue. You really should click over to read this post.

McCain does have one thing going for him: he’s got a long relationship with Bob Schieffer of CBS, who is moderating tonight’s debate.

I probably won’t watch the debate live, but please share your comments in this thread. I will weigh in later when I’ve had a chance to listen.

I leave you with Obama’s latest tv ad, a good positive spot about education:

UPDATE: I caught the beginning of the debate, but then fell asleep while putting my kids to bed. Maybe I can catch the rerun on C-SPAN at some point. McCain seemed to be doing ok while I was watching, but apparently it didn’t go over well when he brought up William Ayers later in the debate. All the focus groups and snap polls gave the debate to Obama.

Note to aspiring politicians: No matter what your position is on when abortion should be legal (if ever), it’s a bad idea to use your fingers to make air quotes while saying “the health of the mother.”

Also, it’s best to avoid letting yourself be photographed or videotaped looking like this or like this. Not presidential.

Here’s a good summary of the post-debate focus group and polling data.

Iowa State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald unveiled a new tax calculator tool this morning in a conference call with reporters. According to a statement from the Obama campaign in Iowa, the calculator  

allows Iowans to test just how much savings individuals and families can expect under both Barack Obama and John McCain’s proposed tax plans.  The calculator prompts users to enter their households’ specific data, and then calculates the difference under each candidate’s proposals.  See the calculator at: http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

[…]

Treasurer Fitzgerald, who has been Iowa’s state treasurer for 26 years, said, “Iowans deserve to know the facts about each candidates’ tax policies.  As the McCain campaign continues to launch false attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan, this new tax calculator will help voters across the country see for themselves how the Obama-Biden economic plan will provide real tax relief to 95 percent of working families.  Our country faces challenging economic times, and we need steady leadership that will put money back in the pockets of middle class families, create new jobs, strengthen our small businesses and turn our economy around – that’s what we’ll get with Barack Obama as president.”

Barack Obama will give a tax cut to 95 percent of workers and their families, leading middle class families to face the lowest income tax rates in over 50 years. He will also eliminate income taxes for seniors making less than $50,000, and give struggling homeowners a mortgage tax worth 10 percent of the interest they pay on their mortgage.

On the other hand, McCain will put the corporate interests ahead of the middle class by giving $45 billion in tax breaks to the 200 largest corporations in America, including $4 billion in giveaways to oil companies that are already making record profits.  And while he’ll reward corporations that ship jobs overseas, he won’t give any tax relief at all to 101 million households.

I just used the calculator, plugging in my family’s details, and we save five times as much under the Obama tax plan as we do under the McCain tax plan.

There’s also a short web ad on the tax calculator page, which highlights the key facts about the Obama and McCain tax proposals.

It’s nice to see a Democratic candidate going on offense when it comes to tax policy.

Lots going on these next few days. I’ll have an open thread for discussing tonight’s debate up later.

Wednesday, October 15:

The final presidential debate will be on tv starting at 8 pm. The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized 10 debate-watching parties around the state:

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15TH, 2008

Cedar Falls

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

2512 Whitetail Dr.

Cedar Falls, Iowa

Cedar Rapids

8:00 PM

Irish Democrat

3207 1st Ave SE

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Council Bluffs

8:00 PM

Barley’s  

114 W Broadway

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Des Moines

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa

Dubuque

8:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

2600 Dodge St Ste B4

Dubuque, Iowa

Mason City Area

7:30 PM

The Home of Mike and Diane Glynn

1008 1st Ave S

Clear Lake, Iowa

Ottumwa

8:00 PM

Tom Tom Tap (in The Hotel Ottumwa)

101 E. Second

Ottumwa, Iowa

Quad Cities

6:30 PM

Home of Jim Mika & Vicki Felger

843 Stagecoach Trail

Le Claire, Iowa

Sioux City

7:00 PM

Debate Watch Party with supporters of Barack Obama and Rob Hubler

The Home of Terri O’Brien

3444 Jackson St.

Sioux City, Iowa

Waterloo

7:00 PM

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

1015 East 4th Street

Waterloo, Iowa

John Kerry will be campaigning around Iowa on behalf of Obama, and Congressional candidate Becky Greenwald will also appear at the Kerry events in Marshalltown, Ames and Waukee:

9:00 AM

Senator John Kerry to officially open the 50th Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Office

1015 East 4th Street

Waterloo, Iowa

11:30 AM

Senator John Kerry to Talk to Veterans about the Obama-Biden Plan to Support our Veterans (Becky Greenwald will also speak)

Iowa Veterans Home

Malloy Leisure Resource Center

1301 Summit Street

Marshalltown, Iowa

1:15 PM

Senator John Kerry and Becky Greenwald to hold a “Vote Now for Change” Rally

Iowa State University

Memorial Union – Sun Room

2229 Lincoln Way

Ames, Iowa

3:00 PM

Senator John Kerry to Kick Off a “Vets to Vets” Phone Bank

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change Office

1408 Locust St.

Des Moines, Iowa

4:45 PM

Senator John Kerry and Becky Greenwald to Hold a Meet and Greet with Voters

Mickey’s Irish Pub and Grill

50 East Laurel Street

Waukee, Iowa

Congressional candidate Rob Hubler will be in Afton at 11:30 am, will hold a Creston Main Street Tour at 12:30 pm, and will appear at 2:00 pm in the Creston Nursing and Allied Science Auditorium of Southwestern Community College. (Please call 712 258-9069 for details.)

At 7:00 pm, Hubler will attend a pre-debate reception at the home of Terri Obrien in Sioux City (details above along with other debate parties).

Congressman Bruce Braley will hold an “economy listening roundtable” at 12:00 pm at the NICC Town Clock Center, 680 Main Street in Dubuque.

Braley will conduct a “Main Street Listening Tour” at 3:00 pm at the Fidelity Bank and Trust, 208 2nd St SE in Dyersville.

From the Fairness Fund PAC:

Do you want to elect leaders that promise change, equality, and genuine hope?  This November we have a chance to send a Fair-minded Majority back to the State House to continue to fight for justice and fairness.  Anti-gay groups and candidates are mobilizing for victory this fall – we must be ready to help our friends and allies.  I hope you can join us to show your support for one of our friends and allies!

Please join us on Wednesday, October 15th, for a meet and greet with State Representative Candidate Gretchen Lawyer at the Mars Cafe (2318 University Avenue, Des Moines, Iowa), from 5:30-7:30pm.  Gretchen will be there to answer questions about her vision for Iowa and what she plans to do when elected.  Coffee will be served.  There is a suggested donation of $30.

Gretchen Lawyer is running for State Representative in Iowa District 36. Gretchen Lawyer, a stay-at home-mother of two and a former teacher, is running for office because she believes we need the values of education, community, and hard work represented in the State Legislature, and that by working together we can put those values into action.

Please RSVP to Brad Clark at 515-783-5950.

Thursday, October 16:

Rob Hubler has a busy schedule; please call 712 258-9069 for details about the following events:

9 a.m. Sheldon

10 a.m. Sanborn

11 a.m. Hartley

1 p.m. Marcus

3 p.m.Aurelia

4:30 p.m. Cherokee

7 p.m. Cherokee Dems Office Open House

Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico: Implications and Strategies for Iowa

This day-long conference begins at 8 a.m. at the Gateway Center in Ames, and will look at new and emerging research findings and pressing needs related to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Among the speakers will be Darrell Brown, chief of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coastal Management Branch who coordinates the EPA’s efforts to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Officials from various state agencies, NGOs and Iowa State researchers will present and participate in panel discussions. Registration begins September 8. Contacts: Cathy Kling, conference coordinator/research, ckling@iastate.edu, (515) 294-5767; or Sandy Clarke, communications/meeting planning, sclarke@iastate.edu, (515) 294-6257. See conference web site: http://www.card.iastate.edu/hy…  This conference is a project of the Leopold Center Policy Initiative with support from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.

Friday, October 17:

Iowa Environmental Council Annual Conference and Meeting–Waters that Unite Us is this year’s annual conference theme. Please mark your calendars and plan to join us for a day of learning and networking. The conference will be held at the Botanical Center in Des Moines, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., with a members meeting following shortly after close of the conference. At the conference we will explore where and how humans are having positive and negative impacts on Iowa waters and some of the ways individuals and communities can participate in solutions. Registration will begin in August. Speakers include Cornelia F. Mutel author of “The Emerald Horizon – The History of Nature in Iowa,” and Cornelia Butler Flora, Director of North Central Regional Center for Rural Development. Visit www.iaenvironment.org for more information in late July.

WILD, WILD Aquatic, & Learning Tree Facilitator Training, October 17-18, Guthrie Center. The Iowa DNR is offering a Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree facilitator training workshop on Friday, October 17th and Saturday, October 18th at the Springbrook Conservation Education Center near Guthrie Center. Anyone who trains teachers, naturalists, youth leaders, or others involved in teaching about the environment in Iowa is invited to attend. Training is FREE (a $50 refundable deposit is required to reserve your space). Stipends for attending and mileage reimbursement are available. Lodging and meals will be provided.  For more information, contact the Aquatic Education Program: 641/747-2200; AquaticEd_Info@dnr.iowa.gov

While liveblogging John McCain’s rally in Davenport on Saturday, John Deeth reported on the unusual invocation offered by Pastor Arnold Conrad. I admit that I didn’t pay much attention at the time, because I have read so many reports about right-wing preachers telling people that God wants them to vote for McCain, or even that true Christians are required to vote for McCain.

But Conrad wasn’t saying that. He was saying something much stranger. Here’s the video and partial transcript, courtesy of TPM TV:

I also would also add, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god–whether it’s Hindu, Buddha, Allah–that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons. And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they’re going to think that their God is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and election day.

I have no idea how the crowd received this invocation. It was all over the national media, prompting McCain’s campaign to distance itself with this statement:

“While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama’s judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief.”

Why am I piling on when Keith Olbermann has named Pastor Conrad the “worst person in the world” for a day?

To me the issue is not whether Conrad is misusing his authority as a clergyman, because as I said, I am used to reading about that kind of behavior on the religious right. (My own rabbi won’t even reveal how he votes, let alone try to influence the congregation.)

Rather, I am trying to get my mind around the mentality that produced Conrad’s invocation.

Ben Craw of TPM TV called this “Mothra vs. Godzilla: Monotheistic Deity Throwdown,” which conveys some of the prayer’s absurdity.

But setting jokes aside for the moment, how presumptuous and even blasphemous is it for Conrad to assume the following?

1. He knows that God would prefer John McCain to become president.

2. He knows that God’s reputation is riding on the outcome of this election.

3. He fears that the all-powerful God might hesitate to use his power to make sure McCain wins the election.

4. He suspects that the omniscient God may not be aware that his reputation is riding on the outcome of this election.

5. He thinks God needs to be reminded that “all that happens between now and election day” will affect whether God’s name is sufficiently honored on earth.

Aren’t evangelical Christians supposed to believe that God is sovereign and we are not to second-guess His actions?

I remember reading an article years ago about the religious right’s impact on the 2004 election. I can’t find the link now, but a woman quoted in the piece said something like, “I am so glad that God sent us a strong leader in George Bush, because I was worried He would punish us with John Kerry.” I laughed at her apparent insight into God’s mind. She believed that God controlled the election, but in her mind, only a Bush victory would indicate that God preferred Bush. A Kerry victory would indicate that God had decided to punish America.

Pastor Conrad has taken this presumption to a new level. If Obama wins the election, it won’t be because God has consciously decided to let the “wrong” candidate win, it will be because God wasn’t sufficiently clued in about what’s at stake or didn’t care enough about His name being hallowed on earth.

Conrad is apparently in a better position to know what’s best for us and what’s best for God than God Himself.

Like I said, bizarre.

Share your thoughts and interpretations in the comments.

I missed this Daily Kos diary by Bryan Lefwitz a few days ago. It featured this You Tube containing the audio from a robocall paid for by the McCain/Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee:

Apparently the robocall was hitting answering machines in eastern Iowa on Saturday, the same day John McCain held a rally in Davenport.

Lefwitz’s diary also shows a four-page direct-mail piece about the Iowa floods, which was paid for by the RNC and authorized by McCain/Palin. Click over to see this disgraceful attempt to politicize Congress’s response to the flooding. One page shows a small house submerged in several feet of floodwater, alongside these words:

IOWANS NEEDED OUR HELP

But Barack Obama and His Democrat

Congress Went On Vacation

A pathetic and desperate move from a candidate who trails Obama by more than 11 points in Iowa, according to the pollster.com polling average.

Anyway, as Daily Kos user JR reminds us, it was McCain who enjoyed birthday cake with George W. Bush while levees were breaching in New Orleans three years ago.

Are any other candidates (from either party) using images of the flooding or flood-related rhetoric in their campaigns? Post a comment or send me an e-mail if you know of any examples.

Also, feel free to share your thoughts on a question Josh Marshall posed recently: after this election, will McCain ever apologize for the way he campaigned?  

The longer we delay fixing the health care system – reigning in costs, covering everyone, and fairly sharing risk – the harder it will be to reform the system at all. And it's not just because America is currently facing, in the words of just about everyone, “the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression.” As David Lightman and Kevin G. Hall point out today in McClatchy Newspapers, the simple demographics will be against us if we wait:

Beginning in 2011, the first wave of baby boomers – Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – will reach official retirement age. From that point forward, the federal government's finances will be strained, as more and more Americans retire expecting a shrinking number of active workers to pay their promised health and pension benefits.

To put it more starkly: Medicare's trustees project the hospital insurance fund will become insolvent in about 10 years, as its expenditures grow at a 7.4 percent annual rate. The government, the trustees said, will need $342 billion to cover insurance costs during that period.

…

“The longer action on reforming health care and Social Security is delayed, the more painful and difficult the choices will become,” said a Government Accountability Office study in June. “The federal government faces increasing pressures, yet a shrinking window of opportunity for phasing in adjustments.”

Medicare, the report said, “represents a much larger, faster-growing and more immediate problem than Social Security.”

A series of factors are driving up Medicare costs. According to the GAO and the trustees, medical technology is often overused; the health care market doesn't operate on a supply-and-demand basis as people often don't shop for the lowest price; and chronic health problems – such as obesity or substance abuse – require expensive, lengthy treatment.

Medicare (and similarly, Medicaid) face such staggering budget shortfalls to a large extent as a consequence of America's private, patchwork health care system. Preventative care is less costly in the long run, yet, because the health insurance industry has been so deregulated as to allow them to deny care at every opportunity and price care out of the reach of millions, America has 47 million uninsured and millions more under-insured. This means millions of Americans don't see their doctor as regularly as they should to catch medical problems early before they become costly emergencies. And, as the economy sinks, people are cutting back on care, making the problem worse.

Medicare (and to some extent, Medicaid) functions essentially as a high risk pool, a group of people (in this case, the elderly) who are less profitable to insurance companies because they use so much health care. High risk pools, basically by definition, don't work. If the theory of insurance is to spread out risk (everyone in a system all pay into a pot so when one person needs to use their coverage, that cost can be absorbed by everyone), then high risk pools make no sense. Putting everyone who you know are going to use a lot of health insurance into the same pot and asking them to share costs is silly – there are no “low risk” people in the system to absorb some of the cost. And because everyone at some time in their life is “high risk” for large health insurance costs (everyone eventually gets sick or old), Medicare functions as a dumping ground for the private insurance industry. Private insurance takes monthly premiums from the young and healthy all their life, and when they get old and sick (and unprofitable), they are dumped on the government.

This is why Medicare is projected to be the largest driver of the national debt in the near future, and, because baby boomers are about to enter the system in huge numbers, this is why health reform needs to happen in this country immediately.

Simply getting everybody covered adequately would be a huge step forward. A guarantee of a certain level of care, no matter if you're on private or public insurance plans, would make sure people receive the care they need throughout their life, lowering overall costs. A subsidized public insurance plan that would take everybody would go a long way towards eliminating the number of people in America without insurance. And regulating all insurance plans – public and private – to make sure they cover pre-existing conditions and can't dump “unprofitable” customers would ensure risk is shared fairly, as it is meant to be.

This, of course, is Health Care for America Now's vision, shared by 83 Members of Congress, including Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Contrast that with the conservative vision, championed by John McCain:

• Less regulation on insurance companies to do away with state based insurance, allowing companies to set up shop in the states with the least regulation and forcing Americans to shop on their own for health insurance.
• Taxing your employee health benefits, doing away with the employer-based system
• Funding a paltry tax credit (which goes straight to the insurance industry) with cuts to Medicare and Medicaid

No guarantee of care, no incentive to promote prevention, no fair risk sharing, and a plan that is estimated to grow the ranks of the uninsured in America by 5 million in just five years.

There is a clear difference here, and that's why it's so important to make health care a priority in this election and immediately after the next president is inaugurated. It seems the nation is waking up to that difference, too. In the past few weeks, health care has been a focus of some excellent debate questions, it has been targeted in campaign advertisements, and the subject of numerous news stories. And of course, Health Care for America Now has thrown our hat into the ring, spending $4.3 million to put advertisements about John McCain's health care plan (as well as 7 congressional candidates) on the air across the country:

America is finally having the health care debate it needs to be having. What's at stake is our economy, our national debt, our health, and our happiness. Let's just hope the urgency is still there in January.

(also posted at MyDD and the NOW! blog)

I'm proud to work for Health Care for America Now.

I used to be a psychologist, and one of the things that I would often tell my clients is that the relationship between feelings and actions isn't one way. People who are depressed tend to isolate themselves even to the point of staying in bed all day. However, if they force themselves to get out of the house, even though they don't “feel like it,” they often start to feel a little less depressed. Sometimes the feelings come first, “I felt depressed, so I stayed in bed.” Other times the feelings come second, “I went for a walk, and I now I better.”

I started to work for the Obama campaign even though I didn't like him much. I did this for several reasons. First, because Hillary asked me to. One thing she said in her concession speech was, “Are you doing this just for me?” This isn't about one candidate, it is about improving our country. I want to get as many democrats in office as possible.  Second, I wanted to work with the Obama campaign to try coordinate our efforts to get Becky Greenwald elected. I traded my services for Obama for their services for Becky.  Finally, I didn't want to be a cry baby like I have seen a few William Meyers supporters, and some Hillary supporters be. I find it absolutely silly, that anyone would support a candidate like McCain or Latham just because the democrat that they wanted didn't win. 

None of these reasons had anything to do with me “liking” Barack. I didn't. But you know what? When I started campaigning for him, I started having to come up with some reason besides “he's a democrat” to support him. And I started to find some reasons. One of the big ones that I tell people is that amazing speaking ability that I once disdained as “just words” could be really useful in a diplomatic situation. And think how much cheaper that is than another war. Also, that “elitist thing” that people say about him–maybe he comes across that way because he is so intelligent. And right now what our country needs is an intelligent president. I don't want someone “just like me” in office. I want someone a whole lot smarter than me in office.

After awhile, just like I used to tell my clients, my feelings followed my actions. And now–I have to admit–I like Barack. I like him a lot. He might not have been my first choice, but he is my choice now. I'm not “holding my nose” and voting for him. I'm voting for him because I like him. That isn't to say I regret the choice I made in the primary. I don't. I like and admire Hillary Clinton now more than ever. However, just like she said in her concession speech:

“So I want to say to my supporters, when you hear people saying – or think to yourself – 'if only' or 'what if,' I say, 'please don't go there.' Every moment wasted looking back keeps us from moving forward. Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been. We have to work together for what still can be. And that is why I will work my heart out to make sure that Senator Obama is our next President and I hope and pray that all of you will join me in that effort.”

On Thursday at Open Left, Chris Bowers had this advice for the opposition in his very upbeat presidential forecast:

When it comes to offering concern troll advice to McCain and Republicans, I would recommend shutting down all paid media, and firing all campaign staff. McCain should take his remaining money, and distribute it to the RNC, NRCC and NRSC. Target a few close House and Senate seats to try and limit the damage, but otherwise save money for 2010 and 2012. When you are beaten, it is probably better to  withdraw, save what troops and resources you can, but live to fight another day.

Crooked Timber reported yesterday on the latest from the rumor mill:

So I hear (via a prominent member of the sane Republican faction) that the word on the right side of the street is that the Republican National Committee is about to pull the plug on its joint ads with the McCain campaign, and devote its resources instead to trying to save a couple of the senators who are at serious risk of losing their seats.

On one level, this strategy makes the most sense for the RNC. McCain is looking more and more unlikely to win 270 electoral votes, so helping him is probably not the best use of resources. I am told that the Republicans did this in September/October 1996 once it became clear that Bob Dole would lose to Bill Clinton.

Furthermore, Senate Republicans may well be leaning on the RNC to do more for their incumbents. There is real concern now that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could lose in Kentucky. That would be a terrible blow to the GOP caucus in the Senate (click the link to read why), and McConnell is more popular with his colleagues than McCain.

Sarah Palin’s recent travel schedule also suggests a focus on Congressional races. Last week she was in California (not a battleground state in the presidential race, but a place with several contested House seats) and in Omaha (where Nebraska’s second district is up for grabs). This weekend she is headed to West Virginia, where Shelley Moore Capito could lose in the second Congressional district. Capito is not only the sole Republican in the West Virginia delegation to Congress, she is the most likely Republican to win Robert Byrd’s Senate seat after he leaves the scene.

On the other hand, it would be devastating to Republican morale for the media to start reporting that the RNC had given up on McCain. I suspect that would depress GOP turnout in a lot of states, perhaps putting more House seats in play even as the RNC blankets the airwaves in behalf of a few vulnerable senators.

Here in Iowa, Republican incumbent Tom Latham is running lots of tv and radio ads in the fourth district (D+0), while 10 worst list honoree Steve King is not up on tv or radio and is barely campaigning in the fifth district (R+8). We could pick up both of these seats if expectations of an Obama landslide depress Republican turnout.

However the RNC resolves the competing demands for its resources, Sam Wang, a neurologist and political analyst who writes for the Princeton Election Consortium, thinks activists in both parties should forget about the presidential race. He argues that a “hard look at reality” suggests that Obama is going to win big, and further donations to his campaign will not affect the outcome. According to Wang, it makes more sense for activists to focus their energy and donations on the close Senate races right now.

I mostly agree, except that I think activists in battleground states (which Iowa is not) have to follow through to make sure Obama’s supporters turn out for him.

In all the states, we need to keep directing money and volunteer time to the state legislative races, which are important for many reasons.

What do you think?

UPDATE: A commenter at the Princeton Election Consortium site makes a good point:

I agree that supporting close Senate races should be primary, but continuing to contribute to the Presidential campaign isn’t useless. The margin of electoral-college victory, and even more of the popular vote, is important in defining the national sense of mandate for the victor. Politicians take notice too-as when Democrats voted for Reagan’s tax cuts (unfortunately) because of his victory margin. With a major economic rescue and reform needed, a sense of mandate is essential.

Share your thoughts on the campaign news of the day in Iowa.

Will John McCain hit Barack Obama hard today, or will he try to tone down the crowd’s hostility toward Obama, at the risk of getting booed like he did yesterday?

UPDATE: John Deeth’s liveblog is here.

Meanwhile, enjoy this YouTube:

Remember that the final presidential debate will be on Wednesday, October 15.

Saturday, October 11:

John McCain is coming to Davenport for a late morning rally with lots of Iowa Republicans. If you go there, please post a diary to tell us about the event and the mood in the crowd.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack will hold a press conference to discuss McCain’s failed economic policies at 2:00pm in the UFCW Hall, 1401 West 3rd Street in Davenport.

The Quad Cities Earth Charter Summit is happening from 8 am to 4 pm at the River Center in downtown Davenport. This year’s event will give you many opportunities to explore facts and opportunities for better living on planet Earth. You will leave with hope for the future and energy to make a difference. In addition to presentations and displays by local groups, there will be several speakers including, Colin Beavan, “No Impact Man” – who has been featured in media on programs as diverse as NPR news and “Good Morning America.” Colin’s topic will be “Does Our Happiness Have to Cost the Planet?” The keynote speaker in the morning will be well-known University of Iowa professor Dr. Jerry Schnoor to discuss the Global Climate Crisis. Cost for the day is just $20 per person and includes an earth friendly lunch. For more details and to download a registration brochure go to www.qcearthcharter.org  or contact lbellomy@chmiowa.org.

Rob Hubler will be on the Onawa Main Street, beginning at 10:45 am. He will attend a preforum cookout in Onawa beginning at 12:30 pm. Then he will attend the Onawa Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum at 2 p.m. in the Onawa Public Library.

Hubler will also be at the Sac County Democrats Fall Picnic at 5:30 pm.

Becky Greenwald is holding a Coffee and Canvass with Sharon Steckman (candidate in Iowa House district 13) at 1 pm in the Borealis Coffee Shop,

316 N Federal Ave, Mason City.

Greenwald will attend the Humboldt County Soup Supper beginning at 5 pm in the VFW Hall, 412 Main St. in Dakota City.

At 7:30 pm, Greenwald will attend a fundraiser with Senator Rich Olive in the Randall Gym, Intersection of 3rd St. and School St. in Randall.

Sunday, October 12:

Becky Greenwald will be at the Covered Bridge Parade from 1pm – 3pm in Winterset, 7th Ave. and Husky Drive.

Greenwald will attend the Hardin County Democratic Fundraiser from 5pm – 7pm at the American Legion Building, 709 S. Oak Street in Iowa Falls.

Rob Hubler will be in Coon Rapids at 4 pm. Please call 712 352-2077 for details.

Join Whiterock Conservancy’s land stewardship crew in collecting prairie and savanna seeds for use in restoration projects. Learn to identify grassland plant species, learn their habitats, and assist in collecting the seeds for the future. Join the collection crew just east of Coon Rapids. Help collect today so that we may plant tomorrow. Contact WRC’s ecologist, Elizabeth Hill to sign up for prairie seed collection forays: elizabeth@whiterockconservancy.org.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival is opening:

“America’s Lost Landscape; The Tallgrass Prairie” is the first of seven films being screened as part of the new Iowa City Environmental Film Festival. The film will be shown Sunday, October 12 at 2:00 PM at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A.

Connie Mutel, local resident and author of The Emerald Horizon, The History of Nature in Iowa , will lead a discussion following the film. The film is hosted by Citizens for Our Land Our Water Our Future. ( www.landwaterfuture.org)

This film tells the rich and complex story of one of the most astonishing alterations of nature in human history.  “Examines the record of human struggle, triumph and defeat that prairie history exemplifies.   IDA’s Pare Lorentz award citation.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival was developed in collaboration with non-profit environmental groups throughout the region. Films will be screened once a month at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A. Screenings are free and open to the public and include discussions with local advocates and experts.

For more information on this and upcoming films go to:

www.EnvironmentalFilmsIC.com

or

info@environmentalfilmsic.com

I heard Connie Mutel speak about her new book at the annual meeting of 1000 Friends of Iowa in August. I highly recommend her presentation.

Monday, October 13:

Rob Hubler will speak to the Sioux City Downtown Rotary Club, beginning at 11:45 am.

Governor Chet Culver will attend a reception to raise money for Becky Greenwald’s campaign at the home of Marcia and Rick Wanamaker, 710 Southfork Drive in Waukee, at 5:30 pm. For more details or to RSVP, contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.

Singer-songwriter Carole King will be campaigning for Barack Obama. I got my picture taken with her when she came to Des Moines for John Kerry shortly before the 2004 caucuses. However, I forgot to bring my copy of “Tapestry” for her to autograph! Details for her upcoming appearances:

Carole King is a Grammy Award winning singer-songwriter.  She has been inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  King has traveled across the country, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, on behalf of the Obama campaign.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13TH, 2008

10:00 AM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Coffee

Campaign for Change Office

104 N 1st St.

Winterset, Iowa

1:00 PM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Lunch

Firehouse in Red Oak

310 Washington Ave.

Red Oak, Iowa

5:30 PM

Carole King to Kick-Off a “Vote Now for Change” Phone Bank

Prairie Blue

114 N. Wilson St.

Jefferson, Iowa

7:45 PM

Carole King to Thank Volunteers

Stomping Grounds

303 Welch Ave

Ames, Iowa

Tuesday, October 14:

Carole King will hold several more events:

10:00 AM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Rally

Gentle Student Center

Ellsworth Community College

1100 College Ave.

Iowa Falls, Iowa

1:00 PM

Carole King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Lunch

Borealis Coffee Shop

316 N. Federal Ave

Mason City, Iowa

3:15 PM

Carol King to Hold a “Vote Now for Change” Canvass Kickoff Event

Campaign for Change Office

210 E. State St.

Algona, IA

5:00 PM

Carole King to Kick-Off a “Vote Now for Change” Phone Bank

Campaign for Change Office

33 N 12th St.

Fort Dodge, Iowa

8:00 PM

Carole King to Thank Volunteers

Ritual Café

1301 Locust St. #D

Des Moines, Iowa

From the Department of Natural Resources:

DES MOINES – A series of informational meetings to highlight proposed rule changes regarding public lands will be held in October in Des Moines, Dubuque and Spirit Lake. The first is scheduled for Tuesday, Oct. 14th in Des Moines.

The primary intent of changing the rules is to clarify the application procedure, formalize the permit denial process and provide better management of public lands and waters. The proposed rules will also provide for potential penalties associated with the violation of permit conditions or failure to get a permit prior to construction on public lands. The proposed rules also provide for greater enforcement ability by the DNR in cases where private entities have encroached on public land.

Public lands are owned by the citizens of Iowa and include many lakes, 14 rivers, wildlife management areas, state forests and state parks. The proposed rules do not pertain to docks which are covered under a separate chapter of Iowa law and have recently been revised.

“We have been working hard within the department to create rules that are both fair, but also provide us with the safeguards we need to adequately protect the public land owned by Iowa’s citizens,” said Diane Ford-Shivvers, assistant administrator of the DNR’s Conservation and Recreation Division. Ford-Shivvers said the DNR wants the three public meetings to be active discussions on the proposed rules which are scheduled to go into effect next March.

[…]

The three meetings are as follows:

   * Tuesday, Oct. 14th; 6-8 pm at the Des Moines Botanical Center, Walsh Room, 909 Robert D. Ray Drive, Des Moines

   * Thursday, Oct. 23rd; 6-8 pm at EB Lyons Interpretive Center, Mines of Spain State Park, 8991 Bellevue Heights, Dubuque.

   * Monday, Oct. 27th; 6-8 pm at the Dickinson County Community Building, 1602 15th St., in Spirit Lake.

From the Sustainable Funding Coalition:

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including INHF) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund.

So you can make your voice heard on this important issue, this e-mail provides background information on the forums, a list of forum dates & locations, and pre-registration instructions.

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

Ten candidate forums scattered throughout the state provide a chance for citizens and legislators/candidates to discuss this legislation together. Please consider attending the forum nearest you to learn more about this proposal, show your legislators/candidates that Iowans care about conservation funding, and promote passing the needed legislation for this fund during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.

How to pre-register & attend: Find the forum nearest you in the list below and then pre-register at http://conservation-candidate-… NOTE: Pre-registration is critical because individual events may be canceled if pre-registration numbers are low.

October 14 at 7 pm in the Pin Oak Nature Center on HWY 14, south of Chariton.

Wednesday, October 15:

The final presidential debate will be on tv starting at 8 pm.

From the Fairness Fund PAC:

Do you want to elect leaders that promise change, equality, and genuine hope?  This November we have a chance to send a Fair-minded Majority back to the State House to continue to fight for justice and fairness.  Anti-gay groups and candidates are mobilizing for victory this fall – we must be ready to help our friends and allies.  I hope you can join us to show your support for one of our friends and allies!

Please join us on Wednesday, October 15th, for a meet and greet with State Representative Candidate Gretchen Lawyer at the Mars Cafe (2318 University Avenue, Des Moines, Iowa), from 5:30-7:30pm.  Gretchen will be there to answer questions about her vision for Iowa and what she plans to do when elected.  Coffee will be served.  There is a suggested donation of $30.

Gretchen Lawyer is running for State Representative in Iowa District 36. Gretchen Lawyer, a stay-at home-mother of two and a former teacher, is running for office because she believes we need the values of education, community, and hard work represented in the State Legislature, and that by working together we can put those values into action.

Please RSVP to Brad Clark at 515-783-5950.

Thursday, October 16:

Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico: Implications and Strategies for Iowa

This day-long conference begins at 8 a.m. at the Gateway Center in Ames, and will look at new and emerging research findings and pressing needs related to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Among the speakers will be Darrell Brown, chief of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coastal Management Branch who coordinates the EPA’s efforts to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Officials from various state agencies, NGOs and Iowa State researchers will present and participate in panel discussions. Registration begins September 8. Contacts: Cathy Kling, conference coordinator/research, ckling@iastate.edu, (515) 294-5767; or Sandy Clarke, communications/meeting planning, sclarke@iastate.edu, (515) 294-6257. See conference web site: http://www.card.iastate.edu/hy…  This conference is a project of the Leopold Center Policy Initiative with support from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.

Friday, October 17:

Iowa Environmental Council Annual Conference and Meeting–Waters that Unite Us is this year’s annual conference theme. Please mark your calendars and plan to join us for a day of learning and networking. The conference will be held at the Botanical Center in Des Moines, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., with a members meeting following shortly after close of the conference. At the conference we will explore where and how humans are having positive and negative impacts on Iowa waters and some of the ways individuals and communities can participate in solutions. Registration will begin in August. Speakers include Cornelia F. Mutel author of “The Emerald Horizon – The History of Nature in Iowa,” and Cornelia Butler Flora, Director of North Central Regional Center for Rural Development. Visit www.iaenvironment.org for more information in late July.

WILD, WILD Aquatic, & Learning Tree Facilitator Training, October 17-18, Guthrie Center. The Iowa DNR is offering a Projects WILD, WILD Aquatic, and Learning Tree facilitator training workshop on Friday, October 17th and Saturday, October 18th at the Springbrook Conservation Education Center near Guthrie Center. Anyone who trains teachers, naturalists, youth leaders, or others involved in teaching about the environment in Iowa is invited to attend. Training is FREE (a $50 refundable deposit is required to reserve your space). Stipends for attending and mileage reimbursement are available. Lodging and meals will be provided.  For more information, contact the Aquatic Education Program: 641/747-2200; AquaticEd_Info@dnr.iowa.gov

Survey USA released a new Iowa poll today showing Barack Obama leading John McCain by 54 percent to 41 percent. Obama leads by 9 points among men and by 17 points among women. He also leads 2-1 among the respondents who said they have already voted.

Looking at the Iowa page at pollster.com, you can see that Obama has been at or above 50 percent in ten out of the last 11 Iowa polls. He leads by more than ten points according to the pollster.com average.

Sounds like a great time for McCain to waste half a day in Davenport!

Everyone doing volunteer work needs to remind voters to fill out the whole ballot, not just the oval next to Obama’s name.

I forgot to post this yesterday.

The presiding judge in the trial of Charles Keating, Jr. (central figure in the 1980s savings and loan debacle) was Lance Ito, who later presided over O.J. Simpson’s murder trial. Unfortunately, Ito messed up the jury instructions, allowing Keating to get his conviction overturned on appeal.

I also learned this good trivia from Keating’s wikipedia entry:

In 1985, Keating hired Alan Greenspan as an economic consultant, in an unsuccessful effort to convince an oversight agency to exempt Lincoln Savings from certain regulations. Greenspan delivered a favorable report, writing that Lincoln Savings was “a financially strong institution that presents no foreseeable risk to depositors or the government.” (Greenspan produced similar favorable reports on numerous other banks that also failed soon after.)

Obviously, that was before Greenspan replaced Paul Volcker as head of the Federal Reserve.

Anyone watch the Obama campaign’s documentary on John McCain’s role in the Keating Five scandal? What did you think?  

I was surprised to read in the Des Moines Register that John McCain is coming back to Iowa for a rally in Davenport this Saturday. Event details:

Join John McCain and your Iowa Ticket

for a Road to Victory Rally

Saturday, October 11th

Doors Open at 8:30 am and Program Begins at 10:30 am

River Center, 136 E. 3rd Street

Davenport, IA 52801

The Register quoted McCain staffer Wendy Reimann as saying the candidate is committed to keeping Iowa red and has opened eight more offices here. Sure enough, McCain does have more “victory offices” in Iowa now than he did in August. The campaign site lists offices in Urbandale, Ames, Marshalltown, Waterloo, Marion, Coralville, Davenport, Indianola, Ottumwa, Newton, Mt. Pleasant, Dubuque, Clear Lake, Sioux Center, Sioux City and Council Bluffs.

If you live in one of these communities, I would like to hear a report on the level of activity by staffers or volunteers for McCain. Do you see people out knocking on doors for McCain? Do registered voters seem to be getting phone calls from McCain’s campaign? If you walk by the office, does it look like a lot is going on there? You can post a comment in this thread or e-mail me confidentially (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com).

Sean Quinn of fivethirtyeight.com took a road trip to compare the Obama and McCain field operations in various states, and he wasn’t impressed by the work being done in the McCain offices:

Let’s be clear. We’ve observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn’t like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we’ve now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I’ll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again. […]

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Getting back to the point of this post, nine of the last ten polls in Iowa show Obama at or above 50 percent in Iowa, with a significant lead. I am shocked that McCain would waste half a day campaigning here instead of in a state he must win (such as Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio or Florida). It’s not as if Illinois, just across the river from Davenport, is a swing state either.

I put up a poll after the jump where you can predict the presidential election result in Iowa.

In August I posted some questions about the accuracy of opinion polls on the presidential race. I wondered whether any of the following factors might introduce distortions in the polling:

-the growing number of voters who use only cell phones;

-the practice of polling on weekends (when certain demographic groups are less likely to be at home);

-the varying estimates of the partisan and demographic breakdown of the electorate;

-the enormous disparity in the two campaigns’ ground games (which is even more obvious now than it was in the summer).

Most of the factors I mentioned would lead polls to understate support for Barack Obama. However, some political analysts have also questioned whether polls might be overstating Obama’s support because of the “Bradley effect” (or “Bradley-Wilder effect”), whereby white people tell pollsters they plan to vote for a black candidate but act differently in the voting booth. Here at Bleeding Heartland, American007 has expressed concern about this possibility.

We won’t know how accurate the polls were until November 5, and even then we won’t be able to prove how much of the difference was related to last-minute external events and how much was related to pollsters’ errors in weighting their samples, or respondents lying about their intentions.

However, here are some pieces worth your time if you enjoy this kind of speculation.

The “mystery pollster” Mark Blumenthal doubts there will be a “perfect storm” leading to wildly inaccurate polling, because

the potential polling foibles may work in opposite directions and “cancel each other out.” A return of the Bradley-Wilder effect would work to McCain’s benefit, while an underrepresentation of younger, African American or “cell-phone-only” voters will likely benefit Obama.

Embedded in that piece is a link to a research paper (pdf file) by Daniel J. Hopkins, a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard who analyzed data from 133 gubernatorial and Senate elections from 1989 to 2006. He found a Bradley effect in the early 1990s but no evidence that it still existed in more recent elections. If you don’t want to download the whole file, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium summarized Hopkins’ findings in this post on “The disappearing Bradley effect.”

Sam Wang looked at the evidence about cell phone users here and believes this factor is probably only understating Obama’s support by about 1 percent.

But Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com compared the McCain-Obama numbers in many polls and found that Obama does 2 to 3 percent better in surveys by pollsters that call cell phone numbers in addition to landlines.

Silver is not concerned about the Bradley effect after analyzing the primary results. Obama did better than his pre-election polling numbers in more states than he underperformed.

I wonder whether the kind of person who would lie to a pollster about being willing to vote for a black candidate is more likely to vote in a general election than in a Democratic primary. That said, I do find Hopkins’ analysis persuasive, so I have decided not to worry about the Bradley effect either.

I’m not a pollster or a statistician, but my hunch is that the greatest potential for pollster error is in the assumptions made about relative turnout by certain demographic groups. Should we assume the proportion of Democrats, blacks and young voters will be about the same as 2004, or should we assume higher turnout in those groups? Being wrong in one direction or another could significantly skew the results, especially in states with large black populations.

The Research 2000 tracking poll for Daily Kos is assuming a higher proportion of Democrats in the electorate than Gallup and Rasmussen, for instance. I assume Democrats will increase their share of the electorate because of the trends in voter registration over the past year as well as the enthusiasm gap. However, Jerome Armstrong is among the skeptics who think the partisan turnout will look very much like 2004.

I would question any poll that assumes African-American voters will make up the same proportion of the electorate this year as they did in 2004, especially in states where Obama has a massive voter turnout operation and John Kerry did not compete (such as North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri). Even in Georgia, where Obama has significantly reduced staff since the summer, we can expect to see much higher black turnout if voter registration trends and early voting are any indication.

I am less confident about a surge in young voter turnout, but if that did happen, pre-election polls weighted according to the 2004 figures would understate Obama’s support.

If Latino turnout is higher than in 2004, Obama will benefit because McCain does quite poorly among Latinos, far worse than George Bush did in 2004.

What do you think? Are you counting on polls to be mostly accurate this year, or significantly off the mark in one direction?

This summer Senator Tom Harkin held a “Building Blue” contest for Democrats running for the Iowa legislature. Representative Eric Palmer and Senator Tom Rielly received the most votes on Harkin’s website, and their campaigns each received $5,000 from Harkin’s campaign fund. Another four House and four Senate candidates each received $2,000.

Today I received an e-mail from Harkin announcing a new Building Blue contest for county Democratic parties:

Dear [desmoinesdem],

There are just a few short weeks before Iowans go to the polls and there’s still plenty of work to be done.

You may remember that several months ago, we conducted a Building Blue contest that raised thousands of dollars for Democratic candidates across the state of Iowa.  Now, we need to continue to build upon our grassroots infrastructure for this November’s election.

To help do so, we have launched a second Building Blue contest on tomharkin.com.  This time, my campaign will provide $9,000 to support the get out the vote efforts of County Democratic Parties throughout the state.

We’re calling it Building Blue II: Counting the Counties.

Please visit www.tomharkin.com and nominate your county to receive up to $3,000 for November’s campaign.

The nomination round is open to all of Iowa’s 99 counties.  It begins today and runs until October 15th, so please forward this email and tell your friends and family to vote for your county today.

The ten counties receiving the most votes will each receive $500 and move on to the second round.

In the second round, which will run from October 15th until October 22th, the counties with the second and third most votes will get another $500 and the winning county will be awarded a grand prize of $2,500 for their fall campaign.

Please support your county today by taking part in the Building Blue contest and helping us continue to build a solid foundation for November 4th.

Thank you for your support and good luck!

This is an open thread to discuss which counties most deserve a little extra funding to support Democratic turnout efforts.

Let’s think strategically.

Should we try to steer Harkin’s donations toward the most populous counties? Those counties have the largest potential number of voters to reach. Then again, maybe those counties already have substantial GOTV operations in the works. Certainly they all have field offices from Barack Obama’s campaign.

Should we nominate counties where neither Obama nor any Congressional candidate has a field office? Maybe those counties need more help.

Should we nominate counties in the fourth or fifth Congressional districts, where we’ve got a chance to unseat Republicans?

Should we nominate counties where the most competitive statehouse races will take place (such as Scott County and Mahaska County)?

In other Harkin-related news, I have heard but not yet independently confirmed that Harkin donated $250,000 from his campaign fund to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the end of September. (The next round of Federal Election Commission reports will come out on October 15.)

Good for him. More and more Senate races are becoming competitive, and the DSCC needs the resources to help our strong candidates in states like Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign provided further event details for the RV tour, which you can find after the jump.

As I wrote over the summer, Barack Obama’s small-town outreach is crushing John McCain’s.

The latest example is an RV tour, starting today, which will promote early voting:

Des Moines, Iowa – On Wednesday, October 8th, 2008, the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change will launch the “Vote Now for Change” RV tour.  From October 8th through October 10th, the “Vote Now for Change” RV – which will be decorated with a “Vote Early for Change” banner and other signs — will travel to communities across Iowa carrying literature to make sure Iowans know how they can vote and to engage Iowans in the democratic process.  At each stop, the campaign will discuss the importance of voting now for change. The Obama campaign is committed to opening up the political process to people who may have never taken part before and engaging as many Iowans as possible in our movement for change.

Early voting in Iowa has begun and the Obama campaign has set up a voter information hotline, 877 – IA08VOTE, for Iowans to call to get information on how they can vote. Iowans can also visit iowa.barackobama.com for more information.

“Voting in Iowa has begun and Iowans across the state have the opportunity to cast their vote for Barack Obama and help turn the page on the failed policies of the past eight years,” said Obama Iowa State Director Jackie Norris.  “Our country desperately needs change, which is why it is so important for Iowans to vote early, get their votes in the bank and then volunteer on Election Day to help us turn Iowa blue.  Iowans helped launch Senator Obama’s candidacy and now Iowans have the opportunity to once again help carry Senator Obama to victory, so we can finally have a President who will look out for middle class families instead of big corporations.”

The details of the “Vote Now for Change” RV Tour are below.  Additional details will follow in the coming days.

I’ve put those details after the jump. You can see that the RV is stopping in lots of Iowa cities and towns, including several college towns.

As you encourage your friends to vote early, don’t forget to tell them to fill out the whole ballot and not just check the box next to Obama’s name. Iowans also have the option of voting straight ticket, which automatically records your vote for all the Democrats running for office.

If you need talking points to help convince people to vote early, click here.

I didn’t get this notice in time to include the events on my weekly calendar, but Governor Chet Culver and Congressman Dave Loebsack will headline events today to discuss the potential for wind energy production in Iowa as well as how Barack Obama will support the wind industry.

Des Moines, Iowa – On Wednesday, October 8th, 2008, Governor Chet Culver will be joined by Iowa wind industry leaders on a tour across Iowa to announce new wind industry rankings for Iowa and unveil a new Obama policy initiative which will further help Iowa’s wind industry grow.   The tour will begin at TPI Composites in Newton, and head to Clipper Windpower in Cedar Rapids. From Cedar Rapids, Congressman Dave Loebsack will take the tour to Fort Madison, home of Siemens Power Generation, Inc.

Governor Culver will be joined by wind industry leaders from TPI Composites and Clipper Windpower, as well as Bob Gates, the 2007-08 President of the American Wind Energy Association.  The wind industry officials will discuss the future of the wind industry and highlight the importance of the wind industry in Iowa.

In addition, the Governor and wind industry leaders will be joined by Wind Energy and Turbine Technology students from the Iowa Lakes Community College in Estherville, Iowa.  The Wind Energy and Turbine Technology program is the first in the state of Iowa and is critical towards helping meet the growing demand for skilled technicians who can install, maintain and service modern wind turbines.

“The outcome of this election is very important to the future of Iowa’s wind industry,” said Governor Culver.  “The wind industry has created more than 2,000 green-collar jobs in Iowa over the last two years, and Barack Obama has a detailed plan to further invest in wind energy and make wind energy a federal priority.”

The details of the events are:

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 8TH, 2008

11:00 AM

Roundtable discussion on Iowa’s wind industry with Governor Culver and wind industry officials at TPI Composites

TPI Composites

2300 North 33rd Ave East (North of Newton across from the biodiesel plant)

Newton, Iowa

1:30 PM

Roundtable discussion on Iowa’s wind industry with Governor Culver and wind industry officials at Clipper Windpower

Clipper Windpower

4601 Bowling St. SW

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

4:00 PM  

Roundtable discussion on Iowa’s wind industry with Congressman Loebsack and wind industry officials at the Fort Madison Library

Fort Madison Library

1920 Avenue E

Fort Madison, Iowa

If you care about renewable energy and wind power, I encourage you to get involved with the Iowa Renewable Energy Association.

I’ll probably have to catch most of tonight’s big event on the replay later. I’ll update this post when I have a chance.

Use this thread to tell us what you thought about how Obama and McCain did in the debate, or to share any opinions about how the presidential campaign is going.

UPDATE: noneed4thneed is liveblogging the debate on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/commoniowan

SECOND UPDATE: I saw only a few minutes of the debate live, and I’ll have more to say after I watch the rerun.

The snap polls are giving it to Obama:

Update [2008-10-7 23:7:30 by Todd Beeton]:CNN’s snap poll: Obama won 54%-30%. Also, Obama’s favorables went up a net of 8%, McCain’s were UNCHANGED. Wow.

Update [2008-10-7 23:13:28 by Todd Beeton]:From Jonathan in the earlier thread: More actual results… CBS polling of undecided voters gave Obama the win by a 39 percent to 27 percent margin, with another 35 percent rating the debate a tie. Another wasted opportunity for the McCain campaign.

GQR focus group of undecideds split 42 percent for Obama at the end versus 24 percent for McCain.

More details on that CBS poll:

Forty percent of the 516 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight’s winner; 26 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.

After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 55 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 48 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.

Before the debate, 59 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 33 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 44 percent thought so afterwards.

There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 58 percent after the debate. But 77 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 83 percent thought so afterwards.

FINAL UPDATE: The debate was not that interesting. The format was bad, the selection of questions was mediocre, and Brokaw was a lousy moderator. Jim Lehrer did a much better job of facilitating exchanges between the candidates.

Having watched the whole thing, I can see why the snap polls favored Obama. It’s not that McCain made any big mistake (though referring to Obama as “that one” was not classy), it’s just that his answers were often meandering and less on point than Obama’s.

The debates were not Obama’s best department during the primaries, but he was solid tonight. He briefly summarized his policy proposals well. He seems very comfortable and not easily rattled. He had to go first in answering that somewhat odd final question (What don’t you know and how will you learn it?), and he managed to come up with a decent joke and a segue into comfortable turf for him.

Obama also had some effective responses to McCain, like saying there are some things he doesn’t understand about Iraq, such as why we invaded a country that didn’t attack us when we hadn’t finished the job in Afghanistan.

Many of McCain’s claims about Obama during the debate (Obama voted to raise taxes 94 times, Obama got a $3 million earmark for an overhead projector) were false, according to the CBS Fact Check.

I didn’t hear anything from McCain that seemed likely to do harm to Obama, who has been leading all the latest national polls and many of the key swing state polls. He currently wins according to nearly 90 percent of the 10,000 vote projections at fivethirtyeight.com.

In yesterday’s thread on the race between Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, secondtonone referred to the fact that a right-wing Republican group put Miller-Meeks on their “Wall of Shame.”

I assumed that this was related to bad blood from the hard-fought Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district, but a commenter claiming to be a member of that group posted the following:

We would have included anyone from that race on the Wall of Shame. There was no candidate that we could have supported in that race. They all left us wanting. What do you do when it is a trio of unsatisfactory candidates?

It’s a good question, and not just a theoretical one for many of us who follow politics closely. On several occasions I have not been thrilled with any of the candidates in a Democratic primary. Many more times I have volunteered for a primary campaign, only to have a different candidate win the nomination.

What is the best way to handle this situation?

One of my dad’s favorite expressions was, “There is more than one right way,” and I think that fits the bill here.

Many people become active supporters of their party’s nominee. Regular Bleeding Heartland commenter lorih has been out knocking on doors for Barack Obama, even though she strongly preferred Hillary Clinton for president. Bleeding Heartland user secondtonone is supporting Becky Greenwald for Congress, despite having backed William Meyers in the fourth district primary.

A group of bloggers who supported Clinton created the “Clintonistas for Obama” blog, where they write regularly about the race. This group includes a few people who preferred two candidates to Obama–first John Edwards, and then Clinton after Edwards dropped out of the race.

Angry Mouse, who was a tireless and often lonely advocate for Clinton at Daily Kos during the primaries, now writes occasional diaries supporting Obama at that blog.

Another approach is to vote for the nominee you don’t care for, but focus your energy on other candidates you can support wholeheartedly. Anyone who’s been reading this blog since the spring will be aware that I am not satisfied with the representation I get from Congressman Leonard Boswell. Since he defeated Ed Fallon in the third district primary, I have mostly ignored him. Because I want the Democrats to have a large majority in Congress, I will vote for Boswell in November, as will just about every Fallon voter I know. (A few may leave that line of their ballot blank.) But I see no reason to keep re-fighting the third-district primary, even though many of the attacks on Fallon from the Boswell camp were ridiculous.

Obama’s not my favorite politician either, to put it mildly, so I decided to volunteer for down-ticket candidates in Iowa.

The blogger RDemocrat  has also focused his political energy in a constructive way since John Edwards left the presidential race. RDemocrat isn’t a fan of Obama but has spent many hours volunteering for Heather Ryan, the Democratic candidate in Kentucky’s first Congressional district.

Tough primaries are a fact of life. If you think Iowa saw some bruising ones this spring, you should have seen the battle between Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Oregon. Merkley won that race narrowly, and I think he’s a fantastic candidate, but many Oregon-based bloggers preferred Novick.

Are those activists spending their time taking pot-shots at Merkley? No, if you read the Democratic community blogs Loaded Orygun and Blue Oregon, you will see that they are putting their political energy to use in other ways. Here’s an example of a post in which a Novick supporter gives Merkley some credit, even though he isn’t a big fan of the candidate.

Incidentally, Novick himself has gone above and beyond the call of duty, strongly supporting Merkley’s general election campaign despite what must have been a very disappointing loss in the primary. I remember that Paul Hackett was not nearly as gracious after Sherrod Brown defeated him in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio two years ago.

By the same token, Hillary Clinton has been out stumping for Obama in key states like Ohio and Florida and has raised about $8 million for Obama’s campaign, even as she tries to retire her own campaign debts.

If you dislike your party’s nominee and you can’t find a different candidate you strongly support, I advise you to get involved with a non-profit organization. So many groups can use a few good volunteers, and no matter where you live, I’m sure there is some cause worth your time.

Getting back to the question at the top of this post, what is a voter to do if all of his or her party’s candidates are unacceptable? Some people might vote for a third-party candidate, as Ron Paul is asking his supporters to do in the presidential election.

My preference is to vote for the least-bad candidate if it’s a primary election. If it’s a general election, I usually hold my nose and vote for the Democrat despite my personal feelings. Only on very rare occasions have I written in someone’s name or voted for a third-party candidate rather than for the Democratic nominee.

Use this thread to share thoughts and suggestions for voters who are disappointed in their party’s nominee.

Tonight Barack Obama and John McCain will debate for the second time. If you were frustrated over the summer that Obama always seemed to be in reaction mode against Republican smears, you’ve got to be happy about the way the campaign is going now.

McCain isn’t leading Obama in a single state that went for John Kerry in 2004, and he has trailed in multiple polls in Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Obama is making it close in Missouri and Indiana as well. McCain and the Republican National Committee are working frantically to build up field operations in states where Obama’s staff and volunteers have worked for months. For instance, as McCain moves staff into Virginia, Obama has approximately 40 field offices open there.

Also in the swing states, the Obama campaign is sending out direct-mail pieces that attack McCain’s health care plan. That dovetails with television commercials and volunteer canvasses that focus voters’ attention on the health care issue.

On Monday, Obama’s campaign opened a new front of a attack by releasing a short documentary about “Keating Economics,” which recounts McCain’s role in the Keating Five scandal of the 1980s. You can watch it here or at www.keatingeconomics.com:

I am old enough to remember the Keating Five scandal. It was a big deal.

The mainstream media have been strangely quiet about that part of McCain’s biography, given the banking sector’s current problems.

Will the Keating Five come up in tonight’s debate? I have no idea. McCain and Sarah Palin have been trying to change the subject, taking Obama’s words out of context and falsely accusing him of “palling around with terrorists.”

Trivia question: without using google or wikipedia, can anyone tell me who the judge was in the Keating Five trial? (CORRECTION: I meant to write “the trial of Charles Keating.” The Keating Five senators were never tried.)

I will give the answer tomorrow.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall posted an amusing note from a reader regarding the mainstream media’s handling of the Keating Five:

I saw this on CNN early this morning. John Roberts was talking about the smear campaign, trying to do the equivalency dance, and actually said (I’m paraphrasing) “Obama is trying to tie McCain to the Keating Five”. Now, maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t that like saying John Lennon was “tied” to the Beatles? He was a Beatle! John McCain WAS one of the Keating Five.

I’m seeing other reporters do this too.

Post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if I’ve left out anything important.

Tuesday, October 7:

The second presidential debate will be held in a town-hall style, moderated by Tom Brokaw at Belmont University, Nashville, Tennessee. Tune in at 8 pm central time. I’ll have a thread up here where people can share their thoughts and reactions to the debate.

The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized six debate-watching parties, in Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Des Moines, Iowa City and Mason City. Details for all those events are after the jump.

Rob Hubler is holding a Plymouth County Office Open House at 5:00 pm, 27 Central Ave Northwest, Le Mars.

From Becky Greenwald’s campaign:

Please join First Lady Mari Culver & Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-at large) for a Women’s Reception to benefit Becky Greenwald

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

5:30 PM Pre-Reception

6:00 PM General Reception

at the home of Toni Urban, 214 Foster Drive, Des Moines, IA

Contribution Levels:

Host:  $1,000  Sponsor:  $500    Friend:  $250    Supporter:  $100

(Host, Sponsor and Friend levels include admission to pre-reception and photo opportunity with Rep. Herseth-Sandlin)

General Admission: $30

To RSVP or for further information, please contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.  

There will be a Sustainable Funding Coalition candidate forum at 6:30 pm in Sioux City at the Long Lines Family Rec Center, 401 Gordon Drive, South entrance, 3rd floor. Background:

The Sustainable Funding Coalition, a diverse group of Iowa organizations (including INHF) that works for sustainable conservation funding, is sponsoring a series of candidate forums on the proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund.

So you can make your voice heard on this important issue, this e-mail provides background information on the forums, a list of forum dates & locations, and pre-registration instructions.

About the Fund: The proposed Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund would provide a permanent funding source to support efforts to improve and preserve Iowa’s water quality, soils, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities.

To create the fund, proposed legislation mandates that 3/8ths of a cent from state sales tax revenue will be appropriated for the Trust Fund the next time the Iowa legislature approves a sales tax increase. The Sustainable Funding Coalition hopes to pass Trust Fund legislation during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.  NOTE: This bill does not raise taxes, nor does it give voters the ability to raise the sales tax-only the legislature can do that.

About the forums

Ten candidate forums scattered throughout the state provide a chance for citizens and legislators/candidates to discuss this legislation together. Please consider attending the forum nearest you to learn more about this proposal, show your legislators/candidates that Iowans care about conservation funding, and promote passing the needed legislation for this fund during Iowa’s 2009 legislative session.

How to pre-register & attend: Find the forum nearest you in the list below and then pre-register at http://conservation-candidate-… NOTE: Pre-registration is critical because individual events may be canceled if pre-registration numbers are low.

Wednesday, October 8:

There are two Sustainable Funding Coalition candidate forums (see above for background on these events). One is in Atlantic at 6:30 pm in the Cass County Community Center (805 W 10th St). The other is in Des Moines at 6:30 pm at the Izaak Walton League – (4343 George Flagg Pkwy).

One Iowa is holding its monthly happy hour:

Have you ordered your tickets for Dixie’s Tupperware Party? $40 gets a ticket, a free drink during the show, and access to an exclusive after party. Order your tickets online now! We’ll have your tickets at the door. More details on the show below.

Before the event, join One Iowa for this month’s happy hour. Featuring free appetizers, cash bar, and a chance to mingle with other LGBTA professionals.

Wednesday, October 8

5:00 PM-7:00 PM

Centro

1007 Locust St.,

Des Moines, IA 50309

RSVP: http://eqfed.org/oneiowa/event…

Make it an evening and join us afterwards for Dixie’s Tupperware Party at the Civic Center of Greater Des Moines. We have arranged a special deal with the Civic Center that includes an exclusive after party! Limited space available — order your tickets online today.

Thursday, October 9:

Rob Hubler will attend a Cultural Diversity Meeting at 2:30 pm in the Denison Municipal Utilities Building, Denison.

Friday, October 10:

There will be another radio debate between Becky Greenwald and Tom Latham on KGLO radio in Mason City, from 10:00am – 11:30am.

Saturday, October 11:

Rob Hubler will attend the Onawa Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum at 2 p.m. in the Onawa Public Library.

Hubler will attend the Sac County Democrats Fall Picnic at 5:30 pm.

Register now to attend the Quad Cities Earth Charter Summit on Saturday, October 11, from 8 am to 4 pm, at the River Center in downtown Davenport. This year’s event will give you many opportunities to explore facts and opportunities for better living on planet Earth. You will leave with hope for the future and energy to make a difference. In addition to presentations and displays by local groups, there will be several speakers including, Colin Beavan, “No Impact Man” – who has been featured in media on programs as diverse as NPR news and “Good Morning America.” Colin’s topic will be “Does Our Happiness Have to Cost the Planet?” The keynote speaker in the morning will be well-known University of Iowa professor Dr. Jerry Schnoor to discuss the Global Climate Crisis. Cost for the day is just $20 per person and includes an earth friendly lunch. For more details and to download a registration brochure go to www.qcearthcharter.org  or contact lbellomy@chmiowa.org.

Sunday, October 12:

Becky Greenwald will be at the Covered Bridge Parade from 1pm – 3pm in Winterset, 7th Ave. and Husky Drive.

Greenwald will attend the Hardin County Democratic Fundraiser from 5pm – 7pm at the American Legion Building, 709 S. Oak Street in Iowa Falls.

Join Whiterock Conservancy’s land stewardship crew in collecting prairie and savanna seeds for use in restoration projects. Learn to identify grassland plant species, learn their habitats, and assist in collecting the seeds for the future. Join the collection crew just east of Coon Rapids. Help collect today so that we may plant tomorrow. Contact WRC’s ecologist, Elizabeth Hill to sign up for prairie seed collection forays: elizabeth@whiterockconservancy.org.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival is opening:

“America’s Lost Landscape; The Tallgrass Prairie” is the first of seven films being screened as part of the new Iowa City Environmental Film Festival. The film will be shown Sunday, October 12 at 2:00 PM at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A.

Connie Mutel, local resident and author of The Emerald Horizon, The History of Nature in Iowa , will lead a discussion following the film. The film is hosted by Citizens for Our Land Our Water Our Future. ( www.landwaterfuture.org)

This film tells the rich and complex story of one of the most astonishing alterations of nature in human history.  “Examines the record of human struggle, triumph and defeat that prairie history exemplifies.   IDA’s Pare Lorentz award citation.

The Iowa City Environmental Film Festival was developed in collaboration with non-profit environmental groups throughout the region. Films will be screened once a month at the Iowa City Public Library, Room A. Screenings are free and open to the public and include discussions with local advocates and experts.

For more information on this and upcoming films go to:

www.EnvironmentalFilmsIC.com

or

info@environmentalfilmsic.com

I heard Connie Mutel speak about her new book at the annual meeting of 1000 Friends of Iowa in August. I highly recommend her presentation.

Monday, October 13:

Rob Hubler will speak to the Sioux City Downtown Rotary Club, beginning at 11:45 am.

Governor Chet Culver will attend a reception to raise money for Becky Greenwald’s campaign at the home of Marcia and Rick Wanamaker, 710 Southfork Drive in Waukee, at 5:30 pm. For more details or to RSVP, contact Eric Dillon at (515) 987-2800 or dillon@beckygreenwald.com.

Tuesday, October 14:

The bad news is, it won’t stick to my car.

Is there a trick to this? I did clean off the area where I was trying to place the car magnet. Your suggestions are welcome.

What magnets and bumper stickers are on your car?

My Edwards ’08 sticker came down last month, but I do still have Fallon for Congress up, along with “Buy Local, Organic and Fair Trade.”

UPDATE: The American Civil Liberties Union just sent us one of their “I’m a Constitution Voter” bumper stickers. Mr. desmoinesdem plans to put that one on his car, which has been sticker-less since he took off the Denise O’Brien for Secretary of Agriculture sticker sometime last year.

What Changed?

After the outbreak of the financial crisis, one presidential debate (polling hasn't quite caught up to the VP debate) and a week of Sarah Palin public humiliation, the national map is looking much, much better for Obama.

EV rich states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota (47 EV) move from “toss-up” to lean Obama. Montana and Louisiana (12 EV), move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”. West Virginia, which had been flirting with the “toss-up” category, moves back into “lean McCain”.The toss-up states remain roughly the same otherwise, although it seems one could safely move some around. Obama hasn't led in Missouri since polling began, likewise for McCain in Colorado. 

Nationally, the trend moves from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”. Obama now stands at his best position since the campaign began, 8 points over McCain in the poll average–50-42.

Where they stand:

Obama: Not much to say this week. It's all good news. If I were him, I'd start picking out furniture for the Oval Office and what tie to wear on inaguration day.

His only bad news isn't that unexpected. Montana and Louisiana, which were little more than icing on the cake, slip comfortably back into McCain territory.

McCain: Titanic, meet iceberg. This has to be McCain's worst week in this campaign to date. The only ray of hope is that McCain as a candidate thrives when his back is against the wall. However, he needs a major “Hail Mary” to get him out of this slump, and honestly, I'm not sure what that could be at this point.

His only bright spot is the potential that the financial crisis will be bumped from the headlines by foreign conflict or terrorism. Either that, or he could pull Osama Bin Laden out of a hat on prime-time. 

According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 96.2%  of the last 1000 simulations.

If the election were held today, and  every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a landslide–333-205 EV.

Courtesy of Daily Kos user kdoug:

Barack Obama’s campaign is already running television ads that make the case against John McCain on health care.

Today they will send volunteers out knocking on doors in ten Iowa cities to “talk about the differences between the Obama plan to make health care affordable and the McCain plan to tax employees’ health benefits.”

SUNDAY: Obama Iowa Campaign for Change to Hold “Health Care Canvasses” Across Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa – On Sunday, October 5th, 2008, the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change will hold “health care canvasses” across the state to talk directly to Iowans about the choice they face this election when it comes to health care.  Senator Obama has outlined a detailed plan to stand up to the big drug and insurance companies and make quality, affordable health care available to every American. His plan lowers premiums by up to $2,500 per family per year and reduces costs for business and their workers.

In contrast, Senator McCain’s plan will tax the health benefits that workers receive from their employers for the first time in history.  His plan will make it more likely that your employer drops your health care plan because of rising costs. Independent analyses show that employers will drop at least 20 million people from coverage and force them to seek insurance in the individual market, where costs are higher, quality is lower, and coverage more uncertain.

“Affordable health care is one of the most important issues facing Iowa working families,” said Jackie Norris, Iowa State Director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.  “There is an enormous difference between the two candidates when it comes to health care.  Senator Obama has a detailed plan to cover every American and lower costs for families by $2,500.  This is in stark contrast to Senator McCain’s radical plan, which will do nothing to reduce the number of uninsured and will tax health care benefits for the first time in history. Iowans can’t afford four more years of health care policies that leave families at the mercy of insurance companies.”

The details of the canvasses are after the jump.

I think it’s smart for the Obama campaign to be pushing this point about McCain wanting to tax health care benefits, but don’t imagine that this is the only thing wrong with McCain’s health care plan.

Elizabeth Edwards made a strong case against other aspects of McCain’s plan this spring (see also this article about her speech to the annual meeting of the Association of Health Care Journalists). One of the biggest problems with McCain’s plan is that insurers could continue to exclude people with pre-existing conditions, including cancer survivors like McCain and Elizabeth Edwards.

Whether or not you canvass today, you may want to bring up these points as well as the tax issue if you talk with undecided voters about the difference between Obama and McCain on health care reform.

UPDATE: We were out today, but the Obama volunteers in Windsor Heights left a “vote early for change” door-hanger at our house. Thanks, I will!

The snap polls suggested Joe Biden won last night’s debate with Sarah Palin (which hasn’t stopped conservative swooning over the winking governor).

In less than 24 hours, the Obama campaign had a television commercial ready that featured one of my favorite moments from the debate:

A simple explanation and great one-liner from Biden on an important issue.

Meanwhile, John McCain’s campaign today contradicted Palin’s statement on bankruptcy law changes–among very few comments she made about bankruptcy before changing the subject to her record on energy policy.

Your Palin comedy of the day is adennak’s Sarah Palin debate flow chart.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign released a second ad on the same theme today.

I don’t know whether I’ll be online later this evening, but use this thread to discuss tonight’s big debate.

It seems that expectations for Sarah Palin couldn’t possibly be lower. How do you think Joe Biden should handle this? I think he needs to ignore any gaffes she makes. Let the media handle that. Biden should focus on promoting Obama’s policies and attacking John McCain.

Note to conspiracy theorists: this diary by ipsos suggests it would not be easy for Palin to get away with wearing an earpiece during tonight’s debate.

I still believe George Bush was wired during his first debate with John Kerry in 2004.

UPDATE: For entertainment value, it’s hard to beat TPM’S Ultimate Sarah Palin Video Guide.

POST-DEBATE THOUGHTS; Palin was smart to look right into the camera almost the whole time she was speaking. There weren’t any deer in the headlights moments, but on several occasions she transparently sidestepped the question and plugged into some programmed response full of buzzwords. I have no idea how it’s going to play with relatively uninformed voters, but I would hope that they could see past her repetition of certain phrases. I also couldn’t believe she kept winking at the camera!

Biden didn’t make any mistakes as far as I could see, other than looking too much at Gwen Ifill and not enough at the camera. However, he did look at the camera more during the second half of the debate, which was good.

On several answers he was devastating, pointing out the contrasts between Obama and McCain. I liked that he kept bringing the focus back to economic issues. I liked how he repeated that McCain was wrong about the war in Iraq being easy. I loved how he repeated that we spend more every three weeks on combat operations in Iraq than we have in six and a half years in Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden has been. It was great the way he put the lie to McCain’s “maverick” image, showing that he hasn’t been a maverick on any of the issues important to Americans, like health care and education.

Although Biden’s not flashy, I felt he turned in a very solid performance tonight. I would be surprised if the snap polls show Palin winning. I know I’m not her target audience, but I felt she looked and sounded programmed. It seems like the people already supporting McCain would love her, but I’m not sure how she played with undecided voters and independents.

What was your favorite Biden moment? I loved when he talked about McCain’s flawed health care plan being “the ultimate bridge to nowhere.”

Last night the Senate passed a bailout bill that was somewhat different from the version the House rejected on Monday. The Senate vote was 74-25 (roll call here), with Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin both voting in favor.

Last week Harkin had spoken out against the original bailout proposal, so obviously he was satisfied with the changes made. (UPDATE: Harkin’s statement explaining his vote is after the jump.)

Both Barack Obama and John McCain voted for the bailout last night. Today, Obama made the economy the centerpiece of a campaign speech in Michigan. Click here to read the speech and watch video clips.

Congressional candidate Becky Greenwald, who said on Monday that she would have opposed the House version of the bailout, issued a statement urging Tom Latham to support the Senate version when it comes back to the House:

“I strongly encourage Tom Latham to support this new version of the financial rescue bill. The Senate version of the bill integrated constructive changes including temporarily raising the FDIC insurance caps, renewable energy tax credits and fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax to exempt middle-income taxpayers. These provisions go a long way to support working families in the 4th District, who were forgotten in the original bill.  

“I still think more needs to be done to address the underlying problem of keeping families in their homes, but it is clear by the impending unavailability of credit, we need to take action now. I am encouraged by the modifications to this bill. I hope the House will embrace the modified bill. I encourage Tom Latham to vote in favor of this bill and take this important step in addressing our financial crisis.”

Congressional candidate Rob Hubler, who said on Monday that he would have voted for the bailout in the House, posted this statement on the front page of his website:

“The failed economic policies of the Bush administration, supported consistently by Steve King, combined with the lack of common-sense regulations and oversight by Congress has led us to this financial train-wreck.

“Six years ago, the Bush administration sought authorization to use military force to invade Iraq.  We acted too quickly and became mired down in war.  Today, it is asking for authorization to use financial force in the market place.  We must not make the mistake of acting too quickly without enough information, and we must address the problems of Main Street as well as Wall Street.  The revised proposal includes subsidies to support the production of ethanol and wind energy, which will be helpful to Iowa’s economy.

“By raising the insurance level from $100,000 to $250,000 for savings accounts, we will help small-town bankers survive the current financial crisis.  If the revised version of the rescue package provides that taxpayers will be paid back every dime of the billions it will take to avert an extended recession and gets money to people on Main Street, I would reluctantly vote in favor of the legislation in order to stabilize the economy so that families and businesses on Main Street are not further affected.  I am encouraged that both Senators Obama and McCain are now working toward a solution, while Steve King is still pushing failed policies, such as eliminating the capital gains taxes which favor wealthy Wall Street speculators.  Main Street doesn’t have any capital gains to pay taxes on right now.

“If I am elected to Congress. I will be a strong voice in favor of regulatory measures and vigilant oversight-unlike Steve King-to see that checks and balances are put back in place so that we never have to experience this kind of calamity again.”

Speaking of Steve King, he made news yesterday during a talk radio show. He argued that McCain was right to say the fundamentals of our economy are strong. I didn’t watch Keith Olbermann’s Countdown show last night, but apparently King earned the title of third-worst person in the world for the day.

I haven’t had a chance to read up on the specific improvements made in the Senate bailout bill. I am skeptical that this will solve the problems in the banking sector, however. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin issued this statement explaining his opposition:

“I will oppose the Wall Street bailout plan because though well intentioned, and certainly much improved over the administration’s original proposal, it remains deeply flawed. It fails to offset the cost of the plan, leaving taxpayers to bear the burden of serious lapses of judgment by private financial institutions, their regulators, and the enablers in Washington who paved the way for this catastrophe by removing the safeguards that had protected consumers and the economy since the great depression. The bailout legislation also fails to reform the flawed regulatory structure that permitted this crisis to arise in the first place. And it doesn’t do enough to address the root cause of the credit market collapse, namely the housing crisis. Taxpayers deserve a plan that puts their concerns ahead of those who got us into this mess.”

-Senator Russ Feingold, October 1, 2008

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich expects the economy to continue to worsen with or without the bailout.

The economist/blogger Bonndad wrote a piece analyzing the various bailout proposals. He concluded, “As far as I have seen, no one has offered any solution to the credit crunch that makes any sense. ”

This is an open thread for any comments related to the economy or the bailout proposals.

The Obama campaign in Iowa has organized 36 vice presidential debate-watching parties around the state.

I've posted all the event details after the jump. The debate is tonight at 8 pm central time. 

In August, former Congressman Jim Leach endorsed Barack Obama for president and spoke at the Democratic national convention.

Today and tomorrow Leach will hold Republicans for Obama events in Iowa:

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2nd, 2008

11:30 AM

“Republicans for Obama” Discussion with Congressman Jim Leach

City Hall – City Council Chambers

515 Clark Avenue

Ames, Iowa

Doors open at 11:00 AM

5:00 PM

“Republicans for Obama” House Party with Congressman Jim Leach

Home of Ginger Marie Pasch-Renaud

413 S 28th St

West Des Moines, Iowa

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3rd, 2008

9:00 AM

“Republicans for Obama” Coffee with Congressman Jim Leach

History Center

615 First Avenue SE

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Doors open at 8:45 AM

12:30 PM

“Republicans for Obama” Lunch with Congressman Jim Leach

Home of Kirsten Adams

25107 189th St.

Bettendorf, Iowa

Doors open at noon

Do you know any Republicans for Obama? Among the Republicans who caucused for Obama, I am curious about how many will stick with him for the general election.

You would think that John McCain would realize Iowa is a lost cause for him. George Bush won the state by about 10,000 votes (out of 1.5 million cast) in 2004, when registered Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats. Now Iowa has 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Moreover, five separate polls in the past month have shown Barack Obama above the 50 percent mark in Iowa and leading McCain by at least 10 points. Only the Big Ten Battleground poll showed this state tied.

I figured that the recent McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids was the last Iowans would see of the Republican ticket this year.

However, McCain is still running television ads in Iowa, and to my surprise, McCain visited Des Moines yesterday. Several Republicans quoted in this story by the Associated Press insist that the race is still close enough for McCain to win Iowa. I have my doubts, but if he wants to waste time and money here, that’s fine by me.

While McCain was in Des Moines, he met with the Register’s editorial board. Click here to watch video from that interview.

The same day, Governor Chet Culver held a press conference in Des Moines to chastise McCain for opposing ethanol subsidies. A press release from Barack Obama’s campaign is after the jump.

I believe that McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies is the main reason he underperforms in rural Iowa (along with the fact that he skipped the caucuses in 2000 and 2008).

I would still like to hear from Bleeding Heartland readers regarding McCain’s field offices in Iowa. Are they still up and running in your area? Do they seem empty or focused on other Republican candidates? The McCain office in Iowa City was reportedly abandoned not long ago. Please post a comment in this thread, or e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.