Ron Paul finished third in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, but his campaign’s superior organization elected more delegates to county and district conventions than that of any other presidential candidate. Two weeks ago, Paul supporters won six of 16 elected positions on the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee. On May 5, Paul supporters secured most of Iowa’s at-large delegate slots for the Republican National Convention. Details are after the jump.

Apologies for the lateness of this post: it’s past time to reveal the Bleeding Heartland Iowa caucus prediction contest winners.  

Can’t wait to learn more of the backstory on this one: Matt Strawn announced this morning that he is resigning as the Republican Party of Iowa’s state chairman. In a videotaped statement, Strawn cited competing business, personal, and political interests. He did not refer to the controversy over his attempt to declare the Iowa caucuses a tie with no clear winner. Supporters of Rick Santorum were outraged when Strawn said publicly that he could not speculate about the vote totals from eight precincts missing paperwork. The Iowa Republican blog publisher Craig Robinson, a former senior Iowa GOP official, repeatedly called for Strawn to step down.

I’ve posted Strawn’s video after the jump, with a partial transcript and an Iowa GOP press release. I’ll update with political reaction as it comes in today.

The Iowa Republican State Central Committee first elected Strawn as chair in January 2009. He beat several political insiders in that contest. Strawn is generally perceived to have improved the party’s organization and coordination. He had no opposition when chosen for another two-year term in January 2011.

The Republican Party of Iowa will not declare Rick Santorum the winner of the Iowa caucuses, even though he leads Mitt Romney by a few dozen votes according to the certified results, and led Romney unofficially in the eight precincts where results could not be certified. A narrow margin of victory with a clear winner would have been great for the Iowa GOP, as it would show multiple paths to winning the caucuses. A disputed result that produces no official winner is a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn now admits Santorum won the caucuses. The episode still makes the party look bad, for reasons I discuss below.

Now that we’ve had a couple of days to digest the Iowa caucus results, I want to invite Bleeding Heartland readers to discuss how the outcome affected the Republican Party of Iowa. My thoughts are below; please share your take in the comments.  

Mitt Romney may have wrongly been declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses due to a tabulation error, according to an exclusive KCCI-TV report today.

The Iowa Democratic Party released complete precinct-level delegate results this afternoon. With 1,774 precincts reporting, 8,064 out of the 8,152 total county delegates elected statewide were for President Barack Obama. “Other” (uncommitted) elected 88 delegates across 18 counties. In terms of state delegate equivalents, there were 1181.03 Obama state delegates (98.42 percent) and 18.97 “other” state delegates (1.58 percent).

Click here to view all counties and statewide data. Click on each county’s name to view precinct-level delegate numbers. In case this page disappears like the IDP’s 2008 caucus results page did, I have posted details on all Iowa precincts electing “other” delegates after the jump.

Representative Michele Bachmann is suspending her presidential campaign this morning after finishing sixth in the Iowa caucuses. In the summer, she briefly became the first female GOP presidential candidate to be a major contender in key early states. What happened to her afterwards won’t encourage other women to seek higher office.

This thread is for sharing stories from your precinct caucus meetings as well as for discussing the results once they have been reported.

Iowa Republicans and Democrats, I’m particularly interested to know how many candidates for Congress or the state legislature addressed your caucus, or had a campaign representative greet caucus-goers and speak on their behalf. GOP Congressional challenger Rod Blum is planning to meet Republicans in two IA-01 counties instead of caucusing in his home town of Dubuque. GOP Representative Tom Latham, who is running against Leonard Boswell next year in IA-03, claims to have lined up leaders in all 384 precincts across the district. Steve King’s challenger, Christie Vilsack, is speaking to all Democratic caucus-goers in Story County’s sole caucus location, Ames High School.

UPDATE: Adding results after the jump.

In a few hours, I’ll go to my Democratic precinct caucus. I’ll bring party platform resolutions to submit, but my main goal for the evening will be to secure an uncommitted delegate to the county convention.

I want to send the message that President Barack Obama hasn’t stood up for core principles of the Democratic Party. He has repeatedly expressed his confidence in Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who never should have been appointed and has mismanaged funds that were supposed to help keep Americans in their homes. He shafted middle-class federal employees in order to craft an image as a deficit hawk, yet he proposed increases in the defense budget and allowed the Bush tax cuts to be extended at all income levels. He signed into law indefinite military detention authority that goes against our basic constitutional principles. He agreed to allow more offshore oil drilling without securing any GOP concessions on energy policy. He validated bogus conservative talking points about “job-killing” regulations by postponing EPA smog rules. Last summer, he treated Americans to the surreal picture of a Democratic president urging the Republican speaker of the House to join him in cutting Social Security and Medicare.

Democrats like me face long odds tonight, especially in Iowa’s most populous counties, Polk and Linn. Iowa Democratic Party caucus rules and the decisions of some county Democratic committees will make it extremely difficult for uncommitted caucus-goers to clear the viability threshold for electing delegates.

I didn’t expect this year’s Republican caucuses to be as much of a nail-biter as the 2008 Democratic competition in Iowa, but here we are on game day, and the top three GOP candidates could plausibly finish in any order.

In another sign that Iowa’s second Congressional district will be competitive next year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added three-term Representative Dave Loebsack to its “Frontline” list of vulnerable incumbents. Meanwhile, Loebsack’s three declared challengers have been meeting and greeting Republican activists during the busy Iowa caucus season.  

Most Iowa caucus-goers head home after the presidential candidate selection, but hard-core activists stick around to elect county convention delegates and consider resolutions for the party platform. If you bring a resolution to your precinct caucus, you have a good chance of getting it approved.

Little-known fact for those who plan to exercise this option: platform resolutions are supposed to be written in a different format from other political resolutions you may have read.

Is Rick Santorum rising fast enough to finish in the top two on Tuesday? The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa poll before the caucuses is one of many to show Santorum gaining strength. Representative Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley made positive comments about Santorum’s campaign over the weekend. Although Rick Perry is criticizing Santorum’s record in Congress, there’s not enough time left to make an effective case against the latest “not Romney” through paid media.

The new Iowa polling numbers are after the jump, along with news from the stump and some candidates’ closing Iowa television and radio ads.

Although the presidential campaign is the center of attention in Iowa for obvious reasons, caucus season also provides opportunities for down-ticket candidates. Large groups of politically-active conservatives gather at campaign events all over the state. Local and county GOP activists are planning for all the 2012 elections, not just the caucuses.

Two Republicans are likely to run against three-term Representative Bruce Braley in Iowa’s new first Congressional district. Both have been busy touring northeast Iowa this fall, speaking to various county central committees and conservative groups.  

I can’t remember a more volatile Republican presidential campaign in Iowa than this year’s. If you dare to guess how things will play out next Tuesday evening, please enter Bleeding Heartland’s Iowa caucus election prediction contest. Winning this contest brings no financial reward, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users American007, ModerateIADem and Johannes. Ground rules and five questions to answer are after the jump.  

Let’s review the most boneheaded moves from the year in Iowa politics.

This thread is not about wrongheaded policy choices. It may be stupid to cut early childhood education programs, kneecap the state Environmental Protection Commission, or pass an “ag gag” bill that would never survive a court challenge. Yet all of those actions carry potential political benefits, since they appeal to well-funded interest groups or a large group of voters.

My top ten list of Iowa politicians’ mistakes is after the jump.

Talk about your last-minute bombshells: Representative Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign chair, State Senator Kent Sorenson, just endorsed Representative Ron Paul in Des Moines this evening. Background on Sorenson’s connections to prominent Paul supporters is after the jump.

Six days before the Iowa caucuses, no Republican candidate has a clear lead, social conservatives remain scattered among several contenders, and new television commercials are launched on almost a daily basis. Numbers from the two latest opinion polls and news from the campaign trail are after the jump, along with some commercials currently showing on Iowa tv screens.

UPDATE: Added numbers from a new CNN poll and the latest Ron Paul tv ad.

It’s the most list-making time of the year. Let’s start talking about Iowa political highlights of 2011.

This thread is devoted to master strokes. I don’t mean our elected officials’ wisest actions, or the policy choices that affected the greatest number of Iowans. I mean acts of such skill that even opponents had to grudgingly acknowledge their brilliance.

My top picks are after the jump. Tomorrow Bleeding Heartland will review the year’s most bewildering acts of incompetence. On Thursday we’ll look at the events that are likely to have the greatest long-term impact on Iowa politics.

It’s Christmas Eve, the fifth night of Chanukah, and ten days before the Iowa caucuses. Not-too-cold weather and clear skies will create good conditions for stargazing. The only thing missing from an otherwise perfect weekend is enough snow for sledding.

I hope everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community is enjoying friends, family and your favorite foods of the season. I’m eating the traditional Jewish Christmas Eve meal. Tomorrow noodle kugel is on the menu.

This is an open thread: happy holidays to all, and all topics welcome. A few Republican presidential television commercials now airing in Iowa are below.

The Republican Iowa caucus results will be the big news story of January 3, but away from the spotlight, some Democrats who are dissatisfied with President Barack Obama’s leadership are seeking to elect uncommitted delegates at their own precinct caucuses. Political junkies who are following that story will be pleased to know that the Iowa Democratic Party has promised to release precinct-level delegate counts on caucus night.

It’s the least the party can do, given how the deck will be stacked against Democrats planning to caucus uncommitted.

I don’t care what Bob Dole said when he was in the mood for flattery, I’m not going to waste Bleeding Heartland readers’ time discussing why Governor Terry Branstad won’t be on anyone’s short list for vice presidential candidates. But it’s never too early to do a little scenario spinning about running mates.

Maybe “Organize, organize, organize and then get hot at the end” isn’t outdated Iowa caucus wisdom after all. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of Iowa Republicans finds Representative Ron Paul slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped to third place.

UPDATE: The Republican polling firm Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has also picked up on the Gingrich slide and Paul gain. Details are at the end of this post.

Newt Gingrich’s surprise trip back to political relevance got me thinking about other old-fashioned (or vintage, if you prefer a more positive spin) American topics.

Seven Republican candidates take the stage tonight as Fox News and the Iowa GOP co-host a presidential debate in Sioux City. I’ll be live-blogging after the jump, where I’ve also posted some recent news about the race in Iowa.

UPDATE: Scroll down for the live-blog.

Seven Six Republican presidential candidates debate tonight in Des Moines, the first time the group has debated since Herman Cain left the race and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich became the front-runner. I plan to live-blog tonight’s debate here, but I wanted to post this thread early to give Bleeding Heartland readers a chance to talk about the race. Links and recent news from the campaign are after the jump.

UPDATE: Scroll down for the live-blog.

Who would have believed it back when Greg Ganske seemed like Newt Gingrich’s last friend left in Iowa? Within the last ten days, five six separate pollsters have released surveys showing former the House speaker with a clear lead among likely Republican caucus-goers.

Iowa Republican caucus-goers have switched their allegiance from one joke candidate selling books to another. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the field in the latest poll by Selzer and Co for the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney trails the latest “not Romney” contender by a larger margin than in the Register’s other polls this year.

While former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney campaigned in Des Moines last week, Representative Leonard Boswell publicly criticized the Republican presidential front-runner for the second time this month. The eight-term Democrat authored a guest column in the November 16 Des Moines Register criticizing Romney’s position on health care for veterans. His latest attack focused more broadly on Romney’s position on taxes and entitlement programs.

Yet another Republican presidential candidates’ debate takes place tonight in Washington. CNN’s Wolf Blitzer will moderate as eight candidates discuss foreign policy: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Senator Rick Santorum, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and Representatives Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul.

A foreign policy debate should allow Paul to stand out from the crowd. My guess is that Santorum will take the lead in challenging his call to negotiate with potential enemies and end most U.S. military interventions.

The latest CNN/ORC International nationwide poll indicates that Newt Gingrich is indeed the new Republican flavor-of-the-week, leading Romney by 24 percent to 20 percent. I expect several rivals for the “not Romney” niche to take Gingrich on tonight. Romney will probably sail above the fray.

Share any thoughts about tonight’s debate or the Republican presidential race in this thread. UPDATE: I posted a few thoughts after the jump.

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and Representative Ron Paul have pushed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney into third place in a new Iowa Republican poll for Iowa State University, the Cedar Rapids Gazette and KCRG TV. However, less than two months before the Iowa caucuses, the majority of likely participants are still not committed to any candidate.

UPDATE: Now Rasmussen has a new Iowa poll showing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich way ahead among likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney and Cain. Details are below.

Democratic U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell is blasting Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's plan for veterans' health care.

Four presidential candidates are new clustered between 17 and 20 percent support among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, according to Selzer and Co’s latest poll of Iowa Republicans, conducted for Bloomberg News.

Eight presidential candidates are debating tonight at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan. CNBC is broadcasting the debate beginning at 7 pm central time. Economic issues are supposed to be the focus of the discussion, but I imagine Herman Cain won’t be able to avoid some discussion of the spiraling sexual harassment allegations against him.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a bit of a home-court advantage in Michigan, where his father was once governor. The Los Angeles Times published a damning report this week about Romney’s business practices at Bain Capital, which used “shell companies in two offshore tax havens to help eligible investors avoid paying U.S. taxes.” I expect Romney will be asked to comment on that report tonight.

I will update this post later with highlights, but meanwhile use this thread for any comments about the debate or the GOP presidential race.

UPDATE: A few thoughts are after the jump.

Jim Carley announced last week that he is running as a Republican in the new Iowa House district 30. Carley’s background is typical for a GOP statehouse candidate, but his announcement was unusual in one respect. A Republican incumbent already represents Iowa House district 30, and State Representative Kim Pearson has not decided yet whether to seek re-election.

Comments from both candidates about a possible primary contest are after the jump.

The Herman Cain sexual harassment allegations have dominated political media coverage of the Republican presidential race this past week. I haven’t covered that story here, because I figure you can find the latest developments at any number of news sites. I also doubt it will significantly affect Cain’s standing among Iowa Republican caucus-goers, who either won’t believe the allegations or don’t care about sexual harassment.

Cain reached out to many Iowans directly this week through a robocall “survey.” My notes on the voter identification call, which came around dinnertime on a weeknight, are after the jump.  

Two Republican presidential candidates who have spent very little time in Iowa during the past few months are leading the Des Moines Register’s latest poll of Iowa Republicans.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s move to set the Iowa caucuses for Tuesday, January 3, cleared the way for news organizations to decide when and where to hold the last few presidential debates in Iowa. Invited candidates will debate three times in nine days during mid-December. Details on dates, locations and sponsoring organizations are after the jump. Because more than two weeks of holiday season festivities will separate these debates from the Iowa caucuses, a strong performance or gaffe may not be make or break for the presidential hopefuls.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

The State Central Committee of the Iowa Democratic Party voted unanimously last night to hold the 2012 caucuses on January 3, beginning at 6:30 pm. I’ve posted the IDP’s press release after the jump. The Republican Party of Iowa set their caucuses for January 3 earlier this week. Traditionally Democrats and Republicans have coordinated their caucus schedule to prevent voters from gaming the system by participating in both parties’ events.

Iowans can change their party registration on caucus night. Former State Representative and Congressional candidate Ed Fallon has encouraged Democrats to become Republicans for a day. I recently ran into one active Democratic volunteer in my precinct who plans to caucus for Representative Ron Paul in January.

I would advise Democrats to stick with their own party’s caucus. It’s a good way to meet like-minded people in your neighborhood as well as an opportunity to influence the party machinery. Precinct caucus attendees elect county convention delegates and approve platform resolutions.