A year ago, former President George W. Bush’s income tax cuts for all brackets were due to expire on December 31. Republicans had President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats on the defensive, not wanting to be seen as raising taxes in a tough economy. Now the tables are turned as a payroll tax cut benefiting all wage earners will expire at the end of the year unless Congress acts otherwise. Democrats in Washington and around the country see this issue as a political winner.

Last week the U.S. Senate defeated two more proposals for extending the payroll tax cut. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Iowa Democratic Party used the controversy to create bad publicity for Representative Tom Latham (IA-04) and Representative Steve King (IA-05).

Some bills are designed to solve real problems, some bills are designed to create the appearance of solving real problems, and some bills are designed to solve non-existent problems. The U.S. House passed that third kind of bill yesterday, seeking to block rules the Environmental Protection Agency has not even proposed.

Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) were among the 33 Democrats who voted with Republicans to pass the H.R. 1633, the Farm Dust Regulation Prevention Act of 2011. The Iowa Democrats weren’t all equally supportive during the floor debate, however.

Without Congressional action, a temporary payroll tax cut intended to stimulate the economy will expire on December 31 of this year. Last week the Senate defeated two proposals to extend the tax cut; Iowa Senators Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin were on opposite sides of both votes.

The U.S. House passed another bill on December 2 seeking to complicate rule-making by federal agencies. Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) voted for H.R. 3010, the Regulatory Accountability Act, as did every Republican present. Nineteen House Democrats (the usual Blue Dog suspects) voted with the majority for this bill. Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) opposed the legislation, despite having crossed the aisle the previous day to support a different GOP effort to limit business regulations.

The U.S. House approved a bill yesterday to make it more difficult for federal agencies to issue rules affecting small businesses. All House Republicans present voted for H.R. 527, as did 28 Democrats, including Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02). However, Boswell and Loebsack supported various amendments that would have weakened the bill.

Yesterday the U.S. House approved H.R. 3094, the Workforce Democracy and Fairness Act. The bill seeks to reverse proposed National Labor Relations Board actions that could make it easier for organized labor to win union elections. Although the bill has no chance of clearing the U.S. Senate, yesterday’s vote could reverberate in some of next year’s Congressional races in Iowa.

While former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney campaigned in Des Moines last week, Representative Leonard Boswell publicly criticized the Republican presidential front-runner for the second time this month. The eight-term Democrat authored a guest column in the November 16 Des Moines Register criticizing Romney’s position on health care for veterans. His latest attack focused more broadly on Romney’s position on taxes and entitlement programs.

On Friday the House of Representatives failed to approve a constitutional amendment requiring the federal government to balance its budget every year. All but four of the House Republicans present supported the amendment, joined by 25 Democrats, including Iowa’s Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02).

The House of Representatives passed a bill this week that would allow some Americans to carry concealed weapons in almost any U.S. state. Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in voting for this bill.

Democratic U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell is blasting Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's plan for veterans' health care.

The Crossroads GPS group headed by former George W. Bush spinmaster Karl Rove is spending $160,000 to run a new commercial about Representative Leonard Boswell on television stations in Des Moines and Omaha. Those media markets reach most residents of Iowa’s new third Congressional district, where Boswell will face Republican Representative Tom Latham in 2012.

Like the first commercial Rove’s group ran against Boswell this summer, the new ad is dominated by boilerplate conservative talking points against House Democrats. The transcript and analysis are after the jump.

Transportation for America released a new report today examining structurally deficient bridges in U.S. metro areas. Among communities with a population between 500,000 and 1 million, the Des Moines metro ranked fourth-worst with 24.3 percent of area bridges in the structurally deficient category.

UPDATE: Representative Leonard Boswell’s comments on this report are at the end of this post.

Catching up on news from last week, the U.S. House approved a bill seeking to limit the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate how coal ash is used. Iowa Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in voting for the bill, although his votes on some key amendments suggested that he was not fully behind the legislation’s goals.

October 15 was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file reports on their third-quarter fundraising with the Federal Election Commission. Follow me after the jump for highlights from the filings for incumbents and challengers in Iowa’s four new Congressional districts.

I’m covering the districts in reverse order today, because based on second-quarter filings, political junkies are most closely watching the money race in IA-04 and IA-03.

Iowa House and Senate members have plenty of work to do during the next legislative session, scheduled to begin in January 2012. Governor Terry Branstad wants to pass a big education reform package as well as commercial property tax cuts he wasn’t able to get through the legislature this year. Lawmakers also face a deadline for adopting a new system for funding and delivering mental health services. Disagreements over the state budget pushed the 2011 legislative session two months beyond its original adjournment date, and I doubt Democrats and Republicans will find it easier to agree on spending priorities in 2012. Election years aren’t typically the most productive times at the state capitol.  

As if there weren’t enough contentious issues on the table, the governor’s transportation advisory commission will urge legislators to approve an 8-cent to 10-cent gas tax increase.  

The U.S. House has again approved legislation to restrict Environmental Protection Agency pollution controls. H.R. 2681, also known as the Cement Sector Regulatory Relief Act of 2011, would delay some new air pollution regulations for cement plants. The 237 Republicans and 25 Democrats supporting final passage of the on October 6 included Iowa Representatives Tom Latham (IA-04), Steve King (IA-05) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03). Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) stood with the majority of House Democrats against the bill.

Boswell has not commented publicly on his latest vote against EPA rules. Roll calls from the House floor debate on H.R. 2681 suggest that in contrast to Latham and King, Boswell was less than fully supportive of the measure. More details are after the jump, along with a nice spin attempt by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Less than 10 days before the current fiscal year ends, Congress has not approved any appropriations bills for fiscal year 2012. Yet again, continuing funding resolutions are needed to prevent the federal government from shutting down after September 30. Yesterday Representative Tom Latham was the only Iowan to vote yes as the U.S. House failed to approve a continuing resolution backed by Republican leaders.

All five Iowans in the U.S. House are co-sponsoring a bill that would require the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers “to revise the Missouri River Master Manual to increase the total amount of storage space within the Missouri River Reservoir System that is allocated for flood control.” After the jump I’ve posted more details on that bill and other news about the Iowans in Congress.

The big story of the weekend is Standard & Poor’s downgrading U.S. sovereign debt. Political reaction to that news and other headlines that caught my eye are after the jump.

About 4,000 Federal Aviation Administration employees are on furlough and many airport construction projects are on hold because the U.S. House and Senate failed to agree on a bill extending the FAA’s authorization. Depending on how and when Congress resolves this dispute, several Iowa airports and the travelers who use them could be affected.  

The U.S. House on Friday evening approved Speaker John Boehner’s latest bill to sharply cut federal spending as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. The bill barely passed by a 218 to 210 vote (roll call). Every House Democrat present voted no, including Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03). The big surprise for me was that both Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) were among the 22 Republicans who voted against the bill. I expected King to oppose the measure, because many of his Tea Party Caucus colleagues believe Boehner isn’t cutting enough spending. But Latham is one of the speaker’s closest friends, and I thought he would be one of the votes putting the bill over the top. It was a tremendous struggle for Boehner to line up enough support for this bill; he had to delay Thursday’s scheduled vote in order to rewrite some provisions today.

Sometimes in situations like these, the House speaker gives some members in the majority caucus permission to vote no, if they are in tough districts. Latham will face Boswell in the new third Congressional district next year, and some of the spending cuts in this bill would affect popular programs. It’s possible Latham voted no with Boehner’s consent, once the speaker knew he had 218 yes votes lined up. That insulates Latham against some potential attack ads. However, Latham was on WHO radio this afternoon saying something must be done to ensure that the government pays its bills. If he acknowledges the need to raise the debt ceiling, when does he think a better deal will come around than Boehner’s bill?

Incidentally, House leaders don’t seem inclined to move on Latham’s bill to prioritize certain types of spending in case no debt ceiling deal is reached.

The U.S. Senate is expected to table the latest House bill on the debt ceiling later Friday evening. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been working on a new “compromise” that is depressingly similar to what Boehner proposed, so Congress is probably headed toward a total Republican victory–big spending cuts, no revenue increases. Notably, if the U.S. ever does pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan, all the savings would go toward deficit reduction, rather than investing in our own infrastructure or social programs. Never mind that the U.S. economy is sputtering and will probably go back into recession under fiscal austerity. That serves Republican political interests as well, because President Barack Obama will be blamed for the downward spiral. Obama’s approval rating on the economy is already low, and most Americans think job creation is more important than deficit reduction right now.

For some reason, Obama prefers this outcome to Senator Tom Harkin’s advice: raise the debt ceiling by invoking the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

UPDATE: On Friday night six Senate Republicans voted with all 53 members of the Democratic caucus to table the motion on concurring with Boehner’s bill (roll call). Grassley was among the 41 Republicans who opposed the motion to table.

Statements released by Latham, King, Loebsack and Braley are now after the jump.

SATURDAY UPDATE: The House rejected Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s bill on July 30; it was a symbolic vote because Reid is still revising the proposal, which so far doesn’t have enough support to overcome a Republican filibuster in the Senate.

Most House Democrats voted for the Reid bill, including Boswell. However, Braley and Loebsack were among the 11 Democrats who voted with all Republicans present against that bill (roll call). I am seeking comment from Braley and Loebsack offices on why they voted against the Reid proposal. It’s worth noting that like Boehner’s bill, Reid’s plan would cut more than $2 trillion in spending over the next decade, with no revenue increases. A total disgrace.

UPDATE: Loebsack released this statement about Saturday’s vote: “We must get Iowa’s economy moving forward.  Today’s vote was not about a solution, it was about political leverage in Washington.”

FURTHER UPDATE: Here’s Harkin speaking on July 30:

“I’m talking about that there’s precedents for presidents to do things where the Constitution doesn’t give the president explicit authority but it doesn’t prohibit the president from doing it, and I believe there’s a basis in the 14th amendment as decided in Perry v. United States,” Sen Tom Harkin (D-IA) said on the Senate floor. “I think the president – barring action from the Congress – not only has the authority to do so, he has the responsibility to not let this country default.”

SUNDAY UPDATE: Senate Majority Leader Reid called a cloture motion on his horrendous compromise proposal Sunday afternoon. It needed 60 votes to pass but only received 50, mostly from Democrats (roll call). I don’t understand Harkin voting for cloture here, when the bill has none of the balance he has advocated. Maybe he planned to vote against the bill itself later–who knows? Grassley voted against cloture, as did every Republican present besides Scott Brown. I’ve added Grassley’s statement below.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is paying for robocalls attacking 60 House Republicans, including Iowa’s Tom Latham, for their intransigence in debt ceiling negotiations. Latham currently represents the fourth district but will run against Democrat Leonard Boswell in the new third district in 2012. Boswell can use the help, because Latham is building up a much bigger campaign war chest. I’ve posted the DCCC call script after the jump. Excerpt:

“Congressman Tom Latham and Speaker Boehner would rather our economy default just to protect tax breaks for Big Oil companies and billionaire jet-owners. Republicans quit negotiating with President Obama on raising the debt ceiling.

“This is serious. Latham’s billionaire buddies will be ok. But we will pay the price if government can’t pay its bills. Our Social Security and Medicare benefits are at risk. Interest rates would spike for our credit cards, car loans, and mortgages. Our 401(k) retirement accounts would drop. And, gas and food prices would skyrocket.”

That message might be persuasive if Obama weren’t begging Republicans to join him in cutting Americans’ Social Security and Medicare benefits. On a related note, Senate Democratic leaders just spent the weekend working on a deal to massively cut government spending without increasing tax revenues at all–not even from (gasp) “Big Oil companies and billionaire jet-owners.” No matter how the debt ceiling drama ends, the Democrats’ incompetence this summer will cause problems for the party’s Congressional candidates in 2012.

Meanwhile, Latham is pushing a plan B in case no deal comes through by August 2:

Under [Latham’s] bill, H.R. 2605, the federal government would prioritize payments to seniors, veterans, military personnel and “core public-safety functions” if the debt ceiling is reached and federal spending must be curtailed.

Latham said his bill is partly a response to what he called “scare tactics” that these critical payments would not be made.

“The White House and irresponsible special-interest groups have begun employing scare tactics as a means of achieving their political ends in the debt-limit debate,” he said Friday. “My legislation removes the use of these priority groups as political pawns and shields them from these contentious debates.”

No one knows exactly what would happen if Congress failed to raise the debt ceiling in the next week, but even if Latham’s bill became law, financial markets would see the federal government unable to pay all its bills. That would likely result in a downgrade of all U.S. debt.

After the jump I’ve posted Latham’s press release on what he called “safety net legislation.” It’s notable that he acknowledges the need to raise the debt ceiling, provided a “long-term plan” is in place to reduce government spending. Some House Republicans, like Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann, oppose increasing the debt limit under any circumstances.

Latham’s bill is much broader than a fallback plan introduced by Bachmann and Representative Steve King (IA-05) earlier this month. That dead-on-arrival proposal would have “set payment of military salaries and payment of principal and interest on publicly-held debt as the top priorities if the debt limit is reached.” The DCCC immediately accused King of “putting China before Iowa’s seniors,” saying his bill “would require the U.S. government to pay debts to China before ensuring seniors receive the Social Security they count on every month.” Latham may not be the brightest bulb in Congress, but he wasn’t about to walk into that trap.

The U.S. House passed the so-called “Cut, Cap and Balance Act” yesterday on a mostly party-line 234 to 190 vote (roll call). Robert Greenstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities summarized the key features of the proposal:

The plan would lock in cuts over the next ten years at least as severe as those in the [House Budget Committee Chairman Paul] Ryan budget plan that the House passed in April, by writing spending caps into law at the year-by-year levels of spending (as a share of GDP) the Ryan budget contains.

It also would hold the increase in the debt limit needed by August 2 hostage to approval by two-thirds of the House and the Senate of a constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget every year while effectively barring any increases in revenues.  The constitutional amendment would make all revenue-raising measures unconstitutional unless they secured a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate.

The “Cut, Cap & Balance” measure cites three constitutional balanced-budget amendments (H.J. Res 1, S.J. Res 10, and H.J. Res 56) and states that Congress must approve one of them or a similar measure before the debt limit can be raised.  All three of the cited proposals would require cuts deeper than those in the Ryan budget.  All three measures would establish a constitutional requirement that total federal expenditures may not exceed 18 percent of GDP, and all three would essentially require that the budget be balanced within the coming decade.

The Ryan plan, by contrast, does not reach balance until the 2030s, and its federal spending level is just below or modestly above 20 percent of GDP for most of the next two decades, equaling 20¾ percent of GDP in 2030 for example, according to the Congressional Budget Office.  The only budget that comes close to meeting the requirements of these constitutional amendments is the Republican Study Committee budget, which eliminates 70 percent of non-defense discretionary funding by 2021, contains deeper Medicare cuts than the Ryan budget, cuts Medicaid, food stamps, and Supplemental Security Income for the elderly and disabled poor in half by the end of the decade, and raises the Social Security retirement age to 70.

Iowa’s Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) both voted for “cut, cap and balance,” while Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) voted against it. I recommend reading Greenstein’s whole analysis or this piece by Michael Linden and Michael Ettlinger to get a sense of how ludicrous this plan is. Severe spending cuts would not only hurt the most vulnerable Americans, they would drag down the whole economy. I doubt Republicans believe in this fiscal policy. When the U.S. economy was hurting in late 2001 and 2002, the GOP-controlled House passed big deficit spending to stimulate demand, with the support of a Republican president.

But I digress. Yesterday’s House vote was designed to give Republicans cover. Everyone knows “cut, cap and balance” could never clear the Senate. Even if it did, President Barack Obama would veto the bill.

This vote isn’t just about short-term political battles over the debt ceiling. It will be cited by both parties during next year’s campaigns in Iowa’s new third and fourth Congressional districts. As a preview of campaign rhetoric to come, I’ve posted comments from both sides after the jump. First, Latham makes the case for the bill and pledges not to vote for any debt ceiling increase “without passage of the major features outlined in the Cut, Cap and Balance Act.” Latham voted many times for unbalanced budgets and to raise the debt ceiling while Republicans controlled the House during George W. Bush’s presidency. He’s hoping those votes will slip down the memory hole.

Next, I posted a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee press release charging that Latham just voted to “cut, cap and end Medicare.” An almost identical statement went out targeting King.

King didn’t send out a press release on yesterday’s vote, but he has stood with Republicans who demand huge spending cuts and no revenue increases as the price for raising the debt ceiling. After the jump, I posted a DCCC statement highlighting King’s previous votes to increase the debt ceiling. Both King and Latham stopped voting for debt ceiling hikes when Democrats had a House majority from 2007 through 2010.

Final note: two House Republicans who are running for president, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, voted against “cut, cap and balance” yesterday. Bachmann “said the bill does not go far enough to fundamentally restructure the way Washington spends money, and in particular does not go after ‘ObamaCare.'” Paul said “this Act cannot balance the budget under any plausible scenario,” because it’s “impossible” to do that without cutting defense spending, Medicare and Social Security.

The battle of the incumbents in Iowa’s third Congressional district will be one of the most closely-watched House races in the country in 2012. Yesterday Karl Rove’s 501(c)4 group Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies launched a television commercial targeting eight-term Democrat Leonard Boswell. Similar spots went up against nine other Democratic incumbents, part of a $20 million summer advertising campaign by Crossroads.

Meanwhile, local media have devoted heavy coverage to the reported break-in attempt at Boswell’s southern Iowa farm on Saturday night. The latest comments from Boswell, his wife Dody Boswell, and law enforcement officers are after the jump, along with the Crossroads ad and annotated transcript.

UPDATE: Law enforcement officers have arrested two suspects in the break-in. Details are at the end of this post, along with statements from Leonard and Dody Boswell.

Iowa’s third and fourth Congressional districts are on track to have high-spending races in 2012, judging from the latest campaign finance reports.

Details from all the Federal Election Commission filings by Iowa Congressional candidates are after the jump. The big news comes from IA-03, where Republican Representative Tom Latham is building a huge money edge over Democratic Representative Leonard Boswell, and IA-04, where former First Lady Christie Vilsack out-raised Republican Steve King for the quarter.

The U.S. House passed the Clean Water Cooperative Federalism Act of 2011 on July 13 by a vote of 239 to 184 (roll call). Leonard Boswell (IA-03) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) to support this bill, which is intended to undermine federal enforcement of the Clean Water Act. Boswell was one of only 16 House Democrats to cross party lines for this bill. He also voted for it on the House Transportation Committee last month. Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) voted with most House Democrats to reject this assault on water quality regulations. Fortunately, the U.S. Senate is unlikely to approve the bill.

Maplight.org compiled data on contributions to House members by interest groups that support the bill. At that link you can view a list of the 44 organizations that supported the Clean Water Cooperative Federalism Act (mostly industry groups, especially agriculture, energy and mining interests) and the 14 environmental or social justice organizations that opposed the bill. It’s not the first time Boswell has voted with agribusiness against environmental regulation. With him facing a tough re-election match against Latham in the new IA-03, it won’t be the last.

Speaking of the 2012 Congressional races, a forthcoming post will discuss Federal Election Commission financial reports from all the Congressional candidates in Iowa. Campaigns must report to the FEC on their fundraising and expenditures by the end of July 15.

Yesterday the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee approved H.R. 2018, the “Clean Water Cooperative Federalism Act of 2011.” Environmental groups have dubbed this legislation the “Dirty Water Bill of 2011.” Iowa Democrat Leonard Boswell was in the majority that approved the bill 35 to 19, even though no the committee held no public hearings to determine the bill’s impact on water pollution. The roll call (pdf) shows that 30 Republicans and five Democrats voted yes, while 18 Democrats and one Republican voted no.

H.R. 2018 would amend the Clean Water Act “to preserve the authority of each State to make determinations relating to the State’s water quality standards, and for other purposes.” The House Transportation Committee says the bill “restricts EPA’s ability to second-guess or delay a state’s permitting and water quality certification decisions under the CWA after the federal agency has already approved a state’s program.” So, in states where major polluting industries have political clout, citizens would lose federal water quality protections. As Kate Sheppard observes, “In practice this would mean each individual state gets oversight over water policy, taking us back to the days of the Cuyahoga River fire and Love Canal, before Congress passed a federal law in 1972.”

Members of Congress introduced this bill last month in response to draft guidelines that the Environmental Protection Agency and Army Corps of Engineers released in April. Those guidelines were designed to address two Supreme Court rulings from the past decade, which “narrowly interpreted the scope of waters covered by the [Clean Water] Act, putting in doubt pollution safeguards for many vital wetlands, lakes and streams.” Click here for more background on those court rulings.

Boswell is the only Iowan currently serving on the transportation committee. His office did not release a statement on H.R. 2018 and has not yet responded to my request for comment on why he voted for this bill. I will update this post with Boswell’s explanation if and when I receive it. The EPA has said that agricultural runoff is the biggest source of pollution in U.S. waterways. Boswell’s voting record has generally aligned with agribusiness interests, and it’s been obvious for decades that Iowa policy-makers have failed to adequately control agricultural pollution.

Eight-term incumbent Boswell faces a tough re-election contest next year against nine-term Republican Representative Tom Latham in the Iowa’s new third Congressional district. It’s a relatively balanced district in terms of voter registration, but Latham is likely to have much more money to spend on his campaign. To win another term, Boswell will need to outperform the top of the Democratic ticket in rural areas of the new IA-03.

After the jump I’ve posted the full text of H.R. 2018, along with a Sierra Club statement describing it as “the most significant weakening of the Clean Water Act since Congress enacted comprehensive federal clean water legislation in 1972.” During yesterday’s committee meeting, Democrat Tim Bishop of New York offered an amendment seeking to neutralize this bill. His amendment stated that none of the provisions in the Clean Water Cooperative Federalism Act “would apply to waters that are a source for public drinking water, provide flood protection, are a valuable fish and wildlife habitat, or are coastal recreational waters.” The committee defeated his amendment by voice vote.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Still no comment from Boswell’s office on this vote. I have added below the House Transportation Committee’s summary of H.R. 2018.

Last week, Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) brought up the need to end oil subsidies repeatedly during an Iowa Public Television appearance. This week, Boswell and other House Democrats requested “a full House Agriculture Committee hearing and investigation into the relationship between rising oil prices and Wall Street speculators.” So I was surprised to see Boswell vote for an offshore drilling bill the House approved on May 5.

Details on yesterday’s votes and Boswell’s recent statements on oil policy are after the jump.

Nine-term incumbent Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) and eight-term incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) will face off next year in Iowa’s third Congressional district. Latham spoke about the 2012 campaign today, making his first public remarks on the subject since he confirmed he would run against Boswell. Highlights from his comments are after the jump, along with Boswell’s first preview of how he will compare his record to Latham’s.

Representatives Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) are among 50 House Republicans the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting this week in robocalls to their new districts. King will run for re-election in Iowa’s newly-drawn fourth district in 2012; his likely Democratic opponent is Christie Vilsack. Latham will run in the new third district against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. The automated phone calls highlight the April 15 vote for Paul Ryan’s budget, which would transform Medicare over time into a voucher program through which seniors could buy private health insurance. Here’s the script:

Hi, this is Claire from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee calling about Congressman Tom Latham’s vote to end Medicare.

Everyone agrees we must cut spending and tighten our belt, but Congressman Latham has made all the wrong choices.  He actually voted to end Medicare, rather than end taxpayer giveaways for Big Oil making record profits or tax breaks for the ultra rich!

Seniors who pay a lifetime into Medicare deserve the benefits they’ve earned. Under the Latham-Republican plan Medicare ends, benefits to seniors are less, and costs to seniors increase – in order to pay for Big Oil taxpayer giveaways and the ultra rich’s tax breaks.

America is built on shared sacrifice.  Tom Latham is choosing to place the burden on seniors.  That’s not right.

Please call Congressman Latham at (515) 232-2885 and tell him to keep his hands off our Medicare!

The robocall against King uses the same script, substituting King’s name for Latham’s and giving King’s phone number at the end: (712) 224-4692.

The DCCC clearly sees Medicare as a central issue for the 2012 campaign. The new IA-03 and especially the new IA-04 contain a higher-than-average proportion of senior citizens. I think most incumbent Republicans will be able to explain away this vote, saying changes to Medicare wouldn’t affect current beneficiaries and Democrats have also voted for cuts to the program.

The 501(c)4 organization Americans United for Change started running a television commercial against King this week, also focusing on Medicare. Mark Langgin posted the video in this diary. He notes that Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey found Christie Vilsack’s favorables to be better than King’s statewide. Too bad she’ll be running against him only in the 39 counties that make up the new IA-04.

Former First Lady Christie Vilsack announced Wednesday that she will move to Ames next month and “continue to explore the possibility of representing Iowa in the US House of Representatives.” A Christie Vilsack for Iowa Facebook page and Christie Vilsack for Iowa website launched today as well. Vilsack’s statement and more news on the IA-04 race are after the jump.

Governor Terry Branstad announced this morning that he will sign the redistricting bill approved yesterday by the Iowa House and Senate. While taping an episode of Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, Branstad asserted that all four Congressional districts will be competitive.

I’ve posted the Congressional district map after the jump. Click here to view the state House and Senate district maps and other redistricting information on the Iowa legislature’s official site.

Soon after Branstad’s announcement, Representative Tom Latham sent his supportersan e-mail announcing his plans to run for Congress in Iowa’s new third district. I don’t blame him for wanting to avoid a Republican primary against Steve King in the new fourth district. Latham’s move sets up a contest between him and Democrat Leonard Boswell, who lives in Polk County. Boswell currently represents Polk County, the largest in the district. Latham currently represents Warren, Dallas and Madison counties.

Boswell’s campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee already released statements about Latham’s plans today. I’ve posted those after the jump. Boswell is on the DCCC’s list of “Frontline” incumbents who may be vulnerable in 2012. The DCCC will hit Latham and other Republicans hard over their vote today for Paul Ryan’s fiscal year 2012 budget resolution. Boswell’s statement emphasized his connection to the district, noting that during his political career he has represented nearly 70 percent of the new IA-03 population. Boswell served three terms in the Iowa Senate before winning his first term in Congress.

In other redistricting news, State Representative Janet Petersen announced today that she will run for the Iowa Senate in the new district 18 (map). She was first elected to House district 64 in northwest Des Moines in 2000. I’ve posted Petersen’s campaign announcement below.

Any comments about the new maps or Iowa elections in 2012 are welcome in this thread. I will update the post if more state House and Senate candidates announce plans to move, retire or run for higher office.

UPDATE: Boswell spoke to Shane D’Aprile of The Hill this week:

“I would just say that I’ve had a tough race every time and that’s what I expect,” said Boswell, adding that his new district will have “half the counties I’ve served before anyway.”

“The one thing [Latham] would have to think about, or even King for that matter, if he were to move south, is that if you’re going to represent the capital city, you better be ready for a tough competition every year,” Boswell said. “So they’ll have to really think about that. Whereas if one of them wins that new 4th district, they could probably coast a little bit by comparison.”  

SECOND UPDATE: No surprise, King confirmed he is running for re-election in the new fourth district.

THIRD UPDATE: Branstad signed the redistricting plan into law on April 19.

Steve King’s recorded voice greeted me when I picked up the phone at about 6:30 pm today. He asked if I was registered to vote; I said yes. He wanted to ask a few questions about a very important issue. Did I support the “total repeal of Obamacare”? Not thinking like a blogger, I gave the “wrong” answer to this question (no), so King’s voice thanked me for my time and ended the phone call. He said the call was paid for by the King for Congress committee and gave a 712 area code phone number (my phone showed that the call came from the Washington, DC area).

I live in Polk County, and the only voters in my household are registered Democrats. At least one household I know of, containing only Democrats in Dallas County, received the same robocall. I don’t know whether King is calling district-wide or just in the IA-03 counties he hasn’t represented before. The proposed third district (map) contains 12 counties King currently represents: Pottawattamie, Mills, Fremont, Cass, Montgomery, Page, Adair, Adams, Taylor, Union, Ringgold, and Guthrie. It also contains three counties Republican Tom Latham currently represents: Warren, Madison and Dallas. Democrat Leonard Boswell represents the largest county in the district, Polk, containing Des Moines and most of its suburbs.  

A request for Bleeding Heartland readers who get King’s call: please let me know what questions follow if you answer yes, you support the total repeal of Obamacare. Also, it would be helpful to know what county you live in and whether your household includes registered Democrats only, or also no-party voters and Republicans. You can either post a comment in this thread or e-mail me confidentially: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

If King is trying to identify Democrats in IA-03 who share his stance on health care reform, then presumably he has not ruled out moving to this district to avoid a GOP primary against Latham in the new IA-04. The new fourth district has a Republican tilt, whereas the new third district is almost evenly balanced politically. The proposed IA-03 voted 51.9 percent Obama, 45.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 47.1 percent Kerry, 52.1 percent Bush in 2004. The proposed IA-04 voted 48.1 percent Obama, 49.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 44.2 percent Kerry, 55.0 percent Bush in 2004.

I believe it would be foolish for King to run in IA-03; my hunch is that a lot of Polk County independents and even Republicans would vote for Latham but not King. Then again, Latham would be unbeatable in the new IA-04, where he has represented 35 of the 39 counties. King would be strongly favored in IA-04 but perhaps vulnerable against the right Democratic candidate, especially in a presidential year.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user rurallib describes the rest of this phone call, as heard way over in eastern Iowa (Muscatine County). King obviously isn’t thinking about running for Congress in the second district, so perhaps he is robocalling statewide to identify and raise money from health care reform-haters.

A pathetically small crowd of about a dozen people turned up for the final public hearings on the first redistricting plan for Iowa last night. As was the case at the previous hearings, few people stood up to criticize the plan, and the complaints raised were not cohesive.

The low turnout and lack of consistent talking points suggest that neither political party mobilized supporters to pack these hearings. That in turn suggests neither Democratic nor Republican leaders believe this map clearly puts them at a disadvantage. More details about the hearings and the next steps in the redistricting process are after the jump.  

When I saw the Legislative Services Agency’s proposed map of Iowa Congressional districts, my first thought was that the third district looks a lot like the fourth district during the 1990s, except less dominated by Polk County. That earlier configuration helped Republican Greg Ganske defeat 36-year incumbent Neal Smith in 1994. Ganske was re-elected to represent IA-04 three times before leaving the House to run against Senator Tom Harkin in 2002.

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Congressional incumbent who lives in the proposed IA-03, and some people are spinning this map as great for Democrats because Boswell comes from and used to represent part of southwest Iowa. I disagree. Representative Tom Latham could easily move to Dallas or Polk County to challenge Boswell. Doing so would avoid a Republican primary in the new fourth district between Latham and Steve King. Latham seems like a stronger candidate than Ganske, while Boswell is weaker than Smith, who was a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee in 1994. Polk County has a Democratic voter registration edge and more than half the population of the proposed IA-03, but as a whole the district is politically balanced. George W. Bush carried the counties in the new IA-03 by 5 points in 2004; Barack Obama won the area in 2008, but by a smaller margin than his statewide edge over John McCain.

Not every Iowa politics watcher shares my view that Latham will move to IA-03 if the first redistricting proposal becomes law. After the jump I examine what could prompt Latham to stay put in Story County and what arguments would dominate a Latham-King contest.

The first public hearing on Iowa’s proposed map of political boundaries took place last night in Council Bluffs. Judging from news accounts, the speakers didn’t raise arguments compelling enough to stall the momentum behind the redistricting plan on the table.  

Minutes ago the Legislative Services Agency released a new map of Iowa political boundaries, containing four Congressional districts, 50 state Senate districts and 100 state House districts. I don’t see the map on the state legislature’s official site yet but will update this post as more information becomes available today.

This thread is for any comments related to Iowa redistricting. I posted a timeline of upcoming events in the process after the jump.

I liked one veteran Republican lawmaker’s advice:

If the map is good to you, stay quiet, advises Rep. Stewart Iverson, R-Clarion, who was Senate majority during redistricting leader 10 years ago. If it’s not, stay quieter.

On the other hand, Kathie Obradovich’s counsel to legislators in today’s column baffled me:

Redistricting will be painful. Do it fast. [….] Hurt feelings and simmering resentment over redistricting can pollute the caucus and spill over into discussion of other bills. Best to get it over with as soon as humanly possible.

We’re talking about a map that will affect Iowa elections for a decade. If the Legislative Services Agency doesn’t produce a map that seems fair to both parties the first time, have them do it again. There is no perfect redistricting plan, but improving a mediocre map is more important than wrapping things up fast at the capitol.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register reports that the map throws Republican Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King together in the new fourth Congressional district. Democratic Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack are both in the new first district. Representative Leonard Boswell has the third district to himself, and the second district (which conveniently contains Christie Vilsack’s home town of Mount Pleasant) is open. Presumably Loebsack would move to the second district if this map were accepted.

Iowa Public Radio’s Jeneane Beck tweets, “If new map approved – 14 State Senate districts with more than one incumbent and seven with no incumbent.” In that case, I doubt this map will be approved.

SECOND UPDATE: The maps are now up on the legislature’s website, along with the proposed redistricting plan report.

THIRD UPDATE: Although Leonard Boswell has the new IA-03 to himself, it’s not a good map for him, with the district stretching to the south and west of Polk County. That reminds me of the IA-04 map from the 1990s, which helped bury Neal Smith.

I suspect Iowa House Republicans won’t be happy to see nine new districts where GOP incumbents would face each other. Three incumbents–Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, Stew Iverson and Henry Rayhons–all reside in the new House district 8. Only three House districts are home to more than one Democratic incumbent. The new district 13 in Sioux City would pit first-term Republican Jeremy Taylor against first-term Democrat Chris Hall.

FOURTH UPDATE: After the jump I’ve added some highlights from the Legislative Services Agency’s report. The districts don’t look very compact to me, but they are fairly close in population.

IA-01 has 761,548 people, -41 from ideal

IA-02 has 761,624 people, +35 from ideal

IA-03 has 761,612 people, +23 from ideal

IA-04 has 761,571 people, -18 from ideal

I also posted reaction comments from Representatives Braley and Boswell, Iowa House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky.

You can find the maps for individual Iowa House and Senate districts here and here. As a Windsor Heights Democrat, I don’t like the looks of my new House district 43 or Senate district 22.

FIFTH UPDATE: Swing State Project helpfully provides the presidential results for each new Congressional district.

IA-01 went 58 percent Obama, 40.1 percent McCain in 2008, and 53.1 percent Kerry, 46.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-02 went 56.6 percent Obama, 41.2 percent McCain in 2008, and 52.5 percent Kerry, 46.5 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-03 went 51.9 percent Obama, 45.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 47.1 percent Kerry, 52.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-04 went 48.1 percent Obama, 49.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 44.2 percent Kerry, 55.0 percent Bush in 2004.

FINAL UPDATE: Added Loebsack’s statement after the jump, which makes clear he would move into IA-02 if this map is adopted.

Bleeding Heartland will continue to cover the implications of the first redistricting plan next week. I’ll be curious to see what arguments people make at the public hearings, aside from complaints about communities of interest being divided. Not only are Linn and Johnson counties separated, but the Des Moines metro area is split among three districts.

Via John Deeth’s blog, I see Jake Wagman has a scoop in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

“Tell Christie I think it’s a great idea,” [Senator Claire] McCaskill said to [U.S. Secretary of Agriculture] Tom Vilsack after a press conference at the ADM grain elevator in St. Louis. “Tell her I’ll come up and knock on some doors!”

McCaskill’s endorsement is not without some complications, and not just because Iowa’s caucus status make its state politics of national import.

Census results will force Iowa, like Missouri, to shed one of its congressional districts in 2012. That means if Vilsack, who recently left her day job, runs, she’ll have to challenge an incumbent — most likely U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, an eight-term Democrat and Missouri native who represents the Des Moines area.

McCaskill knows a thing or two about primaries; she successfully challenged Missouri’s incumbent Democratic governor in 2004. I doubt the backing of a neighboring state’s senator would count for much if Christie Vilsack ends up running against Boswell in the redrawn third Congressional district, but it would be an ironic shift in alliances. In early 2008, McCaskill endorsed Barack Obama for president, just when Hillary Clinton’s campaign was riding the momentum from winning the New Hampshire primary. Both Tom and Christie Vilsack had campaigned their hearts out for Clinton before the Iowa caucuses. Boswell had also endorsed Clinton for president and pledged his support to her as a superdelegate. He continued to back Clinton in the spring of 2008, even though he was under pressure to switch after Obama carried IA-03 in the Iowa caucuses.

Because she is from Mount Pleasant, Vilsack could decide to challenge Representative Dave Loebsack in the 2012 Democratic primary to represent the second Congressional district. However, my hunch is she won’t run for Congress at all if she doesn’t like the look of the new IA-03.

Share any thoughts about Iowa’s 2012 Congressional races in this thread. Can’t wait to see that map on Thursday morning.

MARCH 31 UPDATE: I stand corrected. The proposed IA-02 map is a dream come true for Christie Vilsack. It’s an empty, Democratic-leaning district containing Mount Pleasant. IA-03 is much less appealing, heading south and west from Polk County without any of the Democratic-leaning neighbors (Story, Jasper, Marshall).

Christie Vilsack stepped down last week as executive director of The Iowa Initiative, the Des Moines Register reported on Sunday:

Vilsack said she was taking a leave of absence to protect the Iowa Initiative from any political implications. With the title, Vilsack also gave up a $127,000 salary. She remains board chairwoman and would be free to resume the directorship should she abandon a political path, she told board members.

Vilsack declined a Register interview request. But she provided a brief written statement that supports the point that her change in status was her choice.

“I didn’t want any speculation about my future to affect the important work of the Iowa Initiative,” Vilsack said in the statement. “As such, I am taking an unpaid leave of absence from the organization.”

Vilsack was also urged by the foundation that finances the group to step down in light of the increased political activity.

Officials with the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, the Iowa Initiative’s sole funding source, sent Vilsack a letter last month asking her to step down out of concern about her political activity’s relationship to the foundation’s tax-exempt status.

The letter was discussed during the Monday meeting [during which Vilsack stepped down] and shared with board members who were not present. Officials with the foundation did not reply to The Des Moines Register’s request for comment.

Stepping down was the right decision for Vilsack. Non-profit organizations with 501(c)3 status cannot endorse political candidates, and it’s safer to avoid any appearance of endorsing a political candidate. Having been involved with 1000 Friends of Iowa during the 2006 election cycle, I remember many people assuming (incorrectly) that the organization was backing Ed Fallon for governor, even though he had resigned as 1000 Friends executive director more than a year before the Democratic primary.

On a different note, I have to say wow, the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation has been funding quite a generous salary for a non-profit executive director in Iowa. As far as I know, few staff working for non-profits around here earn six-figure salaries, unless the organization has significant corporate backing.

As of yesterday, former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson was already listed on the Iowa Initiative’s website as executive director. Perhaps the board of directors had been preparing to replace Vilsack for some time, or they felt it was important to appoint a successor immediately.

While Vilsack continues to lay the groundwork for a possible run for Congress, eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell continues to signal that he is running for re-election again in IA-03. In January Senator Tom Harkin headlined a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign. Last month Boswell hired experienced campaign operative Julie Stauch to run his district office in Des Moines. This month House Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for the incumbent’s campaign at Roxanne Conlin’s home. In a statement to the Des Moines Register, Boswell said:

“Christie [Vilsack] is a good friend of mine and has been for decades. I respect and will defend her right to explore all her options, […] That said, it does not change anything that I am doing. I will be running for re-election and will be running from Polk County.”

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Iowan on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s new list of 15 “Frontline” House incumbents. Josh Kraushaar notes,

The Frontline program has always been a critical part of the House Democrats’ campaign infrastructure, supporting and expanding their fundraising and outreach operations and offering a signal to the lobbying community who’s the most at risk.

Boswell’s been in the Frontline program every election this past decade. With the exception of 2008, he’s always been a target for Iowa Republicans and/or the National Republican Congressional Committee.

In 2012, Boswell may face Christie Vilsack or other Democratic primary challengers. The DCCC appears to be signaling that they will support him in a primary as well as in a general election.

More incumbents will be added to the Frontline program as new maps are drawn across the country and candidate recruitment takes shape. For now, the DCCC hasn’t put Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) or Dave Loebsack (IA-02) on the vulnerable incumbents’ list, but either could be adversely affected by Iowa’s new four-district map. In 2010 Braley won by the narrowest margin of all the Iowans in Congress, 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent, perhaps with an assist from third-party candidates. Loebsack’s margin of victory, 51 percent to 46 percent, was barely more than Boswell’s 50.8 percent to 46.6 percent win, even though Loebsack’s district had a six-point stronger Democratic lean than IA-03.

While many Iowa politics-watchers expect Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) to run in the newly drawn third district in 2012, he could end up facing Braley or even Loebsack (though that’s far less likely). Wherever he runs, House Speaker John Boehner’s “buddy” will almost surely have the financial backing of the NRCC.

Share any thoughts about the 2012 Congressional races in Iowa in this thread. Braley posted a diary here today about a bill he introduced to reduce the deficit, “end the unnecessary giveaways to Big Oil and provide incentives for renewable fuel producers to expand business and develop new technologies.” A couple of weeks ago, Braley and Latham tangled over legislation that might affect Iowa’s ethanol industry.

UPDATE: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign later this month at Roxanne Conlin’s home in Des Moines.