# IA-03



Latest Iowa Congressional voting, comments on the budget and debt ceiling

Two weeks into the partial federal government shutdown, U.S. Senate leaders appear close to a deal to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling while a new joint budget committee negotiates “a replacement for the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration.” After the jump I’ve posted details on last week’s Congressional votes related to funding the federal government and preventing a possible default.

Although Iowa is reportedly the state least affected by the shutdown, because we lack national parks and have few military facilities, thousands of Iowans in the National Guard are still without paychecks. Thousands more who receive benefits through the Women, Infants and Children nutrition program will suffer if the shutdown extends into next month, because WIC is only funded through October.

The lack of a new farm bill arguably affects more Iowans directly than the shutdown does. The latest temporary extension of federal farm programs expired on September 30. At the end of this post, I’ve included some news and comments on efforts to pass a comprehensive farm bill.

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IA-03, IA-04: Generic Democrats lead Latham, King in PPP polls

New surveys by Public Policy Polling indicate slight leads for an unnamed Democratic candidate against Republican incumbents Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04). The generic Democrat’s lead over Latham increased after respondents were told Latham “supported the government shutdown.”

UPDATE: Added a press release from King’s challenger Jim Mowrer at the end of this post.

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More Iowa Congressional voting and reaction to the government shutdown

It’s time for a new post on how Iowa’s representatives in the U.S. House and Senate are handling the ongoing shutdown of non-essential federal government operations. (Click here for details on Congressional votes and Iowa political reaction up to October 1.)

Thousands of Iowans who work for the federal government or serve in the National Guard still have no idea when they’ll receive their next paycheck. The best news I’ve heard all week is that an estimated 66,000 Iowa women and children who receive benefits through the WIC program will get their checks for October, at least.  

Although there has been no progress toward an agreement on a continuing spending resolution, I’ve noticed one big change in Iowa Congressional voting during the last few days. Whereas Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) were sticking with most of their fellow Democrats in earlier votes on federal spending, this week both Braley and Loebsack have joined House Republican attempts to fund the federal government in bits and pieces. Follow me after the jump for more details.

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Iowa Congressional voting and comments on the government shutdown

The 2014 fiscal year began at midnight. Congress is ringing in the occasion with the first partial federal government shutdown since the mid-1990s. The U.S. House and Senate have been unable to agree on a continuing spending resolution, because most House Republicans insist on defunding or delaying the 2010 health care reform law as a condition of funding most government operations.

Details on Iowa Congressional votes on budget resolutions are after the jump, along with comments from all the Iowans in Congress and many of the candidates for U.S. House or Senate.

Authorization for most federal agricultural programs also expired at midnight, and it’s not clear when Congress will be able to agree on a short-term extension or a new five-year farm bill. Toward the end of this post I’ve enclosed some comments on the failure to pass a farm bill.

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Ten reasons Latham and King are wrong about food assistance funding

The U.S. House voted mostly along party lines on September 19 to cut the leading federal food assistance program by $39 billion over the next decade. Iowa’s four representatives split in the expected way: Republicans Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) supported the “Nutrition Reform and Work Opportunity Act,” while Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) voted no. In fact, the roll call shows that not even the bluest Blue Dog Democrat supported this bill.

After the jump I’ve posted comments on this vote from some of the Iowans in Congress, along with the latest Iowa and national figures on food insecurity and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as “food stamps.”

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Iowa political views on a possible attack against Syria (updated)

Several members of Congress from Iowa spoke out about potential U.S. intervention in Syria last week, and Bleeding Heartland sought comment on the issue from the declared Congressional candidates. News clips and the statements I’ve received so far are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. Note: most of the comments enclosed below came before President Barack Obama confirmed on August 31 that he will seek Congressional authorization for a strike on Syria. (He never sought approval for military action in Libya two years ago and he believes he has “the authority to carry out this military action [in Syria] without specific congressional authorization”.)

I am 100 percent convinced that both the House and the Senate will approve the use of force in Syria, perhaps after revising the administration’s first draft, which “is not particularly constrained.”  

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I am no expert on foreign policy or the Middle East, but my gut feeling is that military intervention will not accomplish anything good in Syria. It’s a “tall order” to “mount a limited, targeted, and effective strike that will indeed deter Assad without drawing the United States deeper into the ongoing civil war, causing unacceptable unintended consequences.” By the way, former State Department official William Polk wrote the most interesting analysis I’ve read so far about the situation there.  

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IA-03: EMILY's List endorses Staci Appel

EMILY’s List, an organization supporting pro-choice women Democratic candidates, gave its formal endorsement to Staci Appel and five other Congressional today. Appel is challenging ten-term GOP Representative Tom Latham in Iowa’s third district. The endorsement indicates that she will receive some financial support from the EMILY’s List PAC. Appel had already received access to the nationwide network of EMILY’s List individual supporters.

I would guess that today’s endorsement means that Appel’s early fundraising has gone well. EMILY’s List put six Congressional candidates “on the list” in May and gave the same designation to six more candidates (including Appel) last month. Just six of those twelve “on the list” candidates received the group’s full endorsement today.

After the jump I’ve posted the press release from EMILY’s List and the latest voter registration numbers district-wide and for the sixteen counties in IA-03. On paper, it’s a highly competitive seat. Latham tends to outperform the top of the Republican ticket, though, making this an uphill battle for any challenger.

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IA-Gov: Mike Gronstal not running (updated)

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal announced tonight that he will not run for governor in 2014. Gubernatorial candidate Bob Krause tweeted that Gronstal told the audience at the Pottawattamie County annual Democratic fundraiser that his Senate seat is needed to maintain the Democrats’ 26-24 Senate majority. IA-03 Congressional candidate Gabriel De La Cerda also reported Gronstal’s announcement. Gronstal has represented the Council Bluffs area in the Iowa Senate for many years and was just re-elected to another four-year term in 2012. Since he’s not up for re-election in 2014, he could have run for governor without giving up his seat. However, if he became governor a special election would be called in Senate district 8. Republicans hold both of the Iowa House seats in that district.

I am not surprised by Gronstal’s decision. I was more surprised when he said he was seriously considering the race. While I agree he could be a good governor, and other Democrats could be excellent Senate majority leaders, I would be concerned about finding another Democrat who could hol

UPDATE: Gronstal told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he made the decision in the last ten days, adding, “I think Terry Branstad is imminently [eminently] beatable. This is not the same Terry Branstad that was governor back in the ’80s who understood the spirit of compromise, so I think we have a much more ideological governor. I am confident we (Democrats) can find a candidate who will be able to beat him.”

SECOND UPDATE: Gronstal’s official statement is after the jump.

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Iowa Congressional voting catch-up thread: Energy and environment

This summer the U.S. House has approved several energy-related bills, which could affect public health and the environment as well as corporations in the oil, gas and coal sectors. As we saw last year, Iowa’s four U.S. representatives don’t consistently split on party lines when such bills come to the House floor.

Follow me after the jump for details on the latest energy legislation approved in the lower chamber. None of these bills are likely to pass the current U.S. Senate, but they would have better prospects if Republicans won a Senate majority in the 2014 elections.

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IA-03: EMILY's List puts Staci Appel "on the list"

This week EMILY’s List gave a boost to former State Senator Staci Appel and several other “promising” Congressional candidates. Being “on the list” of the most prominent nationwide organization dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women is one step below a formal endorsement, which would involve direct funding from EMILY’s List PAC. But it means that Appel will have access to a large group of potential donors. EMILY’s List claims more than two million supporters in its “community,” which I assume means people who receive e-mails or printed communications.

Strong fundraising numbers during the third quarter will be critical for Appel as she seeks support from other groups that get involved in Congressional races around the country. Incumbent Representative Tom Latham goes into the race with a big head start financially and will be able to raise huge amounts through his Appropriations subcommittee chairmanship and friendship with House Speaker John Boehner.

The other Democratic candidate in IA-03, Gabriel De La Cerda, will not be able to compete with Appel in fundraising. To underscore that he will be running a different kind of Congressional campaign, De La Cerda held a press conference in Des Moines yesterday to roll out an endorsement from Wilbur Wilson, “a retiree from Bridgestone Firestone AG factory and a hard working Iowan who epitomizes the voices who go unheard in the halls of Washington DC.”

AFSCME endorses Pat Murphy in IA-01, Staci Appel in IA-03

The elections arm of Iowa’s largest labor union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, announced five endorsements for the 2014 elections today. I’ve posted the whole statement from the AFSCME Iowa Council 61 PEOPLE Committee after the jump. The biggest news is AFSCME coming out early for former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy in IA-01. Two other Democrats are already campaigning for that open seat, probably to be joined soon by State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic and former State Senator Swati Dandekar.

In IA-03, AFSCME will back former State Senator Staci Appel, who voted for a number of pro-labor bills during her four years in the legislature. Gabriel De La Cerda is also running in the Democratic primary and was an Iowa political coordinator for the United Steel Workers Union during the 2012 general election campaign. No one will be surprised to see AFSCME supporting four-term incumbent Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Jim Mowrer in IA-04, where no other Democrat is likely to take on Steve King.

AFSCME hasn’t endorsed a Democratic challenger to Governor Terry Branstad yet. The only statewide candidate named in today’s release is Brad Anderson for Iowa secretary of state. He has the backing of most of Iowa’s Democratic establishment and may not face any competition in the primary, although former Secretary of State Michael Mauro hasn’t ruled out a comeback attempt.

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IA-03: NRCC adds Latham to incumbent protection program

Emily Cahn reported for Roll Call last night that the National Republican Congressional Committee will add ten-term Representative Tom Latham to its “Patriot” program for vulnerable incumbents today. Latham is among nine new “Patriots,” bringing to 20 the number of House GOP members the NRCC will focus on protecting during next year’s campaign. In 2012, the NRCC spent money defending both Latham in IA-03 against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell and Representative Steve King in IA-04 against challenger Christie Vilsack.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has indicated that Latham will be one of its targets next year. It has already paid for some robocalls, online ads and a paid twitter campaign in IA-03 since last December. Democrats need a net gain of at least 17 seats to win back control of the U.S. House in 2014. Most analysts consider that an uphill battle.

Latham has a big financial advantage over his two declared challengers, former State Senator Staci Appel and Gabriel De La Cerda. Many Democrats believe Appel can raise enough money to run a competitive race against Latham. She has already hired consultants to help craft a campaign message. De La Cerda described his “work boots clocking in” approach on the Fallon Forum webcast last week.

Steve King faction winning immigration battle in House GOP?

One of Representative Steve King’s top priorities this year is blocking comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S. House. A few months ago, King was concerned that House GOP leaders might cut a deal including “amnesty” for  approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants. He condemned the immigration reform bill U.S. senators approved last month with bipartisan support.

News out of Washington during the last week suggests that King’s faction may be on the way to winning their battle to block any legislation outlining a path to citizenship.  

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Iowa Congressional 2Q fundraising news roundup

Yesterday was the deadline for Congressional candidates to submit second-quarter financial reports to the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from the reports in Iowa’s four U.S. House districts are after the jump.

Bleeding Heartland will cover the U.S. Senate candidates’ financial reports in a separate post.

Speaking of the Federal Election Commission, did you know that Republican commissioners are trying to make it more difficult for professional staff to report campaign finance violations to federal prosecutors? Republicans are all about “law and order” except when laws inconvenience big-money interests.

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Iowa reaction to House passing Farm Bill with no nutrition programs

After last month’s embarrassing failure to pass a five-year Farm Bill in the U.S. House, Republicans moved new legislation yesterday that included funding for agricultural programs but excluded the nutrition programs that have been embedded in farm bills for decades.

After Democrats forced a long slog through procedural votes, the Federal Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act barely passed by 216 votes to 208. Every Democrat present voted against the bill, as did twelve Republicans. The rest of the GOP caucus voted yes, including Representatives Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04). Last month, King tried but failed to muster sufficient conservative support for a farm bill including big cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (more commonly known as food stamps). Iowa Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) rejected yesterday’s bill. They were among the small group of House Democrats to support the previous version of the farm bill despite cuts in nutrition programs that drove away most of their caucus.

Comments from Senator Tom Harkin and most of Iowa’s House delegation are after the jump. I will update this post as needed with more comments from Iowa candidates or elected officials. At this writing, I don’t see anything about yesterday’s vote on Latham’s Congressional website. According to Radio Iowa, Latham “said he was disappointed with the process, but pleased the House was ‘at least able to pass the agriculture portion.'”

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Department of short-sighted cheap shots

The typical division of labor in campaigns nowadays is for the candidate to stay mostly positive when communicating with voters, while political parties or outside groups do the hatchet work on opponents. That pattern is already developing in the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Democratic candidate Bruce Braley is touting his record and his stands on the issues as a way to get his name out and identify supporters. Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has taken a few shots at candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

If future salvos look anything like the website the Iowa Democratic Party created to mock David Young, Braley might be better off without their help.

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IA-03: Staci Appel launches campaign (updated)

Former State Senator Staci Appel rolled out her campaign in Iowa’s third Congressional district yesterday. Despite ruling out a race against ten-term Republican Representative Tom Latham earlier this year, citing “family obligations,” Appel filed papers with the Federal Election Commission a few days ago. After the jump I’ve posted background on the candidate, including her introductory video (with transcript) and an e-mail stating the case for her candidacy.

Many Democrats in Iowa and Washington have urged Appel to run for Congress, especially since Latham’s first declared challenger Mike Sherzan ended his campaign in April.

IA-03 is a swing district on paper, containing 157,406 registered Democrats, 164,101 Republicans, and 156,340 no-party voters as of July 2013. That said, any Democratic nominee will be an underdog Latham. He says and does little in Congress but has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.

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Iowa reaction to Supreme Court striking down DOMA (updated)

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that the federal Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional. The ruling means that legally married gay and lesbian couples in Iowa and elsewhere will be entitled to equal treatment under federal law. More than 200 Congressional Democrats, including Senator Tom Harkin and Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, signed an amicus curiae brief urging justices to strike down the key provision of the DOMA, adopted in 1996 with overwhelming bipartisan support.  

In a separate case, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that backers of California’s Proposition 8 did not have standing to appeal a lower-court ruling striking down that ballot initiative. The decision means that LGBT couples will be allowed to marry in California. It does not affect other states’ statutory or constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. Braley and Loebsack were among scores of Congressional Democrats who recently posed for the “NoH8” campaign supporting marriage equality and opposing Prop 8.

Excerpts from the DOMA decision and Iowa reaction to today’s rulings are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. At this writing, most of the Congressional delegation has not publicly commented on the Supreme Court decisions.

I also enclose below Democratic State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad’s reaction to yesterday’s disgraceful 5-4 Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.

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IA-03: Gabriel De La Cerda

(I've had a post in progress about De La Cerda for a long time. He is knowledgeable and expresses his views coherently, unlike a lot of first-time candidates. This guest post is a good introduction.   - promoted by desmoinesdem)

The Third Congressional District already has a fine, grassroots Democrat running against Tom Latham in 2014. His name is Gabriel De la Cerda. He offers voters in the Third Congressional District of Iowa something they currently do not have. A Congressman who is beholden to them, not the Republican leadership in Washington and a Congressman that truly understands the problems working Iowans face because he is right there with you facing them daily.

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IA-Sen: Tom Latham still thinking about it?

In late February, Representative Tom Latham (R, IA-03) indicated that he did not plan to run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014. I took his statement at face value, especially since he told a conservative radio host that lack of interest in campaigning steered him away from a Senate race that otherwise “was a very, very good opportunity.”

Some politics watchers noted that Latham carefully wrote in his e-mail to supporters, “I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me, at a time when our nation desperately needs less campaigning and more leadership.” In other words, he didn’t explicitly rule out joining the Senate race later. Maybe those skeptics were on to something.

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Iowa Congressional fundraising 1Q news roundup (updated)

April 15 was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file reports on their fundraising and expenditures for the first quarter of 2013. Details on all of the Iowa incumbents and some other declared candidates are after the jump. At this writing, not every report has been posted on the Federal Elections Commission website. I will update this post as more information becomes available.

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IA-03: Mike Sherzan drops out, citing health issues

Mike Sherzan announced by e-mail this afternoon that he will not run for Congress in Iowa’s third district because of “personal health issues.” His full statement is after the jump. Sherzan says his campaign will return all contributions collected since he launched his candidacy last month.

I’m sure everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community joins me in wishing Sherzan a full recovery from his health problems. Any comments about the IA-03 race are welcome in this thread. Other potential Democratic candidates include former State Senator Staci Appel of Warren County and Dr. Andy McGuire, a health insurance company executive who ran for lieutenant governor in the 2006 Democratic primary.

Whoever takes on ten-term incumbent Tom Latham will face an uphill battle in the district. On paper, it looks like a tossup with 158,877 registered Democrats, 165,134 Republicans, and 156,973 no-party voters as of April 2013. However, Latham has routinely outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in his re-election campaigns.  

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New thread on the Iowa Congressional races

Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven’t heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.

Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won’t run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.

I haven’t heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.

According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.

I haven’t heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I’m still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.

Any comments about next year’s Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg’s comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.

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Weekend open thread: Health and happiness edition

Happy St. Patrick’s Day to Bleeding Heartland readers who celebrate the occasion. This is an open thread; all topics are welcome. For a laugh, enjoy The Onion’s recent write-up of Iowa fashion week: “The big themes this season are ‘roomy,’ ‘loose,’ and ‘comfortable.'”

After the jump I’ve posted a few links about health and happiness, including details from Gallup’s 2012 report on well-being in the United States. Iowa ranked ninth on the “Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index” but was not one of the “elite five states” that have shown consistently high levels of resident well-being over five years.

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Iowa reaction to Paul Ryan's new budget

U.S. House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan presented his new federal budget blueprint today. As before, he would end Medicare as a single-payer system for all Americans under age 55, slash spending on programs for the poor such as food stamps and Medicaid, and cut taxes for some, though the details there are fuzzy. He would not cut the defense budget or Social Security. Ryan says his budget would be balanced in 10 years, but he relies on some assumptions that won’t happen, such as repeal of the 2010 health care reform law.

I’ve enclosed Iowa political reaction to the Ryan budget below and will update this post as needed.

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Loebsack votes with House Republicans on government funding resolution

Yesterday the U.S. House approved a bill to fund the federal government through the remainder of the current fiscal year. Dave Loebsack (IA-02) was one of 53 House Democrats to vote for the spending bill, along with most of the Republican caucus. Follow me after the jump for details and the latest sleight of hand by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

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IA-Sen: Tom Latham speculation thread

Many Republicans are thinking about running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, but the field is frozen until Representatives Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) make their intentions clear. King has indicated that he needs to battle “elites” like Karl Rove before he can analyze a possible Senate bid. That suggests Latham will be the first to decide whether to seek the Republican nomination.

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IA-Sen: Bob Krause rules out repeat Senate bid

Bob Krause announced today that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2014 “as long as Bruce Braley is in the race,” but may consider running for governor or for Congress next year. Krause was the first declared challenger to Senator Chuck Grassley in 2009. He finished a distant second to Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 Democratic primary.

Krause now lives in the Des Moines area, so a Congressional bid would presumably be in the third district. So far Mike Sherzan is the only declared challenger to 10-term incumbent Republican Tom Latham.

The full statement from Krause is after the jump. He and Governor Terry Branstad go way back; during the 1970s, they served in the Iowa House at the same time, representing districts next door (two halves of the same Iowa Senate district).

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IA-03: Mike Sherzan first Democrat to announce

Democrat Mike Sherzan announced today that he is running for Congress in Iowa’s third district. I’ve enclosed his press release after the jump, along with excerpts from Sherzan’s comments to the National Journal. He’s on Facebook here and on Twitter here. For now, the Sherzan for Iowa website is only set up to collect donations and the names of volunteers.

Bleeding Heartland covered Sherzan’s biography in this post. If Republican incumbent Tom Latham decides to run for the open U.S. Senate seat, I expect several other Democrats to run in the IA-03 primary, including possibly State Senator Matt McCoy. Otherwise, the field may be clear for Sherzan to take on Latham, which will be an uphill battle. On paper, this looks like a swing district, with 159,939 active registered Democrats, 166,109 Republicans, and 157,442 no-party voters as of February 2013. But Latham consistently outperforms the top of the Republican ticket and gained more votes than Mitt Romney in every IA-03 county last November.

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IA-SEN: Latest comments from Latham and King

Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) told journalists in Washington yesterday that he is thinking about running for the U.S. Senate in 2014. He declined to specify when he will announce his plans, but he said he will “make my own decision” rather than be influenced by Representative Steve King (IA-04). Deirdre Walsh reported for CNN,

Pressed if he thinks a Senate bid by King could hurt the GOP’s chances of taking the seat – something other national Republicans have expressed concerns over – Latham told reporters outside the House floor that King is “a very viable member of Congress.”

If Latham wants the Senate seat, he would be advised to announce sooner rather than later. A few days ago, King told conservative talk radio host Larry O’Connor that he is “fifty-fifty” on running for the Senate seat. Click through to listen to King’s comments. In weighing his decision, he is considering “whether the energy is out there” to support his bid and “whether we can raise the money” for a statewide race. I still expect King to stay in IA-04, where he’s safe for the next decade, but he may be tempted to take on the Republican establishment.

The least likely scenario in my mind is Latham and King running against each other in a GOP primary. If one of them announces a Senate campaign, the other will stay out. A new Wenzel Strategies poll of “likely Republican primary voters” in Iowa found that King would be the early leader in a Senate primary, with Latham in second place and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds third. Public Policy Polling surveyed Iowa Republicans over the weekend and found King leading among moderates as well as among respondents who described themselves as “very conservative.”

UPDATE: I missed this story at the Rothenberg Political Report last night. Latham’s changing the name of his campaign committee from “Latham for Congress” to “Iowans for Latham.”

SECOND UPDATE: Michael Devine, a talk radio host for KVFD AM 1400 in Fort Dodge, posted on Facebook today, “Congressman Steve King told us this morning the chances are ‘better than 50 percent’ he will run for the Senate.”

THIRD UPDATE: Excerpts from Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa poll findings are after the jump.

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Karl Rove's next target may be Steve King

After a dismal performance by his political vehicles in 2012, the man once known as “Bush’s brain” is working to stop unelectable Republican candidates from winning GOP primaries in 2014. Jeff Zeleny reports in today’s New York Times that Karl Rove’s super-PAC American Crossroads is creating the “Conservative Victory Project.” One of Rove’s associates confirmed that stopping Representative Steve King from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa will be a priority.

Details and toplines from the first poll on the open IA-Sen race are below.

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New IA-Sen and IA-01 speculation thread (updated, adding IA-03)

Iowa politics watchers continue to chew over the possibilities for the open U.S. Senate race next year. To no one’s surprise, Governor Terry Branstad ruled out a Senate bid this morning, saying he’s never been interested in leaving Iowa to serve for six years in Washington, DC. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds told journalists that she is focused on the Branstad administration’s agenda for Iowa but keeping her “options open” on the Senate race. Many other Republicans are thinking about it too, and only Representative Tom Latham has the potential to clear the field.

On the Democratic side, speculation continues to center around Representative Bruce Braley, who confirmed yesterday that he is considering running for Tom Harkin’s seat. If Braley takes on the Senate race, many Democrats expect State Senator Liz Mathis to run in the first Congressional district. She is well-known among Iowans in the Cedar Rapids television market, thanks to her previous career in news broadcasting. Senate President Pam Jochum of Dubuque said today that the IA-01 race is “something to think about.” Jochum indicated that to run and serve in Congress, she would need support for her developmentally disabled adult daughter, who lives with her.

Any comments related to the reshuffle in Iowa politics are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Also no surprise: Democratic State Senator Matt McCoy of Des Moines would consider running in IA-03 if Latham goes for the Senate seat.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ruled out running for either the U.S. Senate or IA-01 in 2014. Dix left the Iowa House in 2006 to run for the open seat in IA-01, but finished second in the GOP primary. Further updates are after the jump.

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IA-03: Democrats recruiting whom? (updated)

The well-informed Shira Toeplitz reported this week at Roll Call that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have a challenger to ten-term Republican Representative Tom Latham in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

I figured that before too long, Democrats would float some possible candidates for IA-03 in 2014. I didn’t figure that the leading recruit would be someone I’d never heard of.

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Leonard Boswell farewell thread (updated)

The U.S. House of Representatives took 40 minutes on the floor this morning to recognize Leonard Boswell’s public service during his military career, time in the Iowa Senate, and 16 years in Congress. Radio Iowa posted a link to the full audio from today’s proceedings. Republican Tom Latham, who defeated Boswell in IA-03 last month, opened the tribute with warm remarks about his colleague. He also read out comments sent by many Iowans, including Governor Terry Branstad and Ken Sagar of the Iowa Federation of Labor. Iowans can e-mail their own remarks to Boswell.Tribute@mail.house.gov today. Those e-mails will supposedly be part of the official Congressional record.

After the jump I’ve enclosed some excerpts from today’s speeches and public statements released about Boswell’s retirement. Any memories about Leonard Boswell are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added a touching story about Boswell below.

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Comparing voter registration numbers and election results by county

The latest voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties are out, and I wanted to do one final update on the registration totals in each county, grouped by Congressional district. Statewide, Republicans had led Democrats in voter registrations since April, but that lead was almost gone by the beginning of November. Late GOTV and election-day registrants helped put Democrats a little ahead again. As of December 3, Iowa had 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters.

In the tables below, I also added vote totals for President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and the major-party Congressional candidates in each county, to show which candidates outpolled or underperformed their party’s presidential nominee. I’m not convinced that Christie Vilsack could have beaten Tom Latham in IA-03, but Leonard Boswell finished noticeably behind the president in this district, especially in Polk County.  

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