In July 2011, State Representative Walt Rogers endorsed former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum for president. Today Santorum returned the favor by announcing that he and his Patriot Voices PAC support Rogers’ campaign for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district. I’ve posted Santorum’s full endorsement after the jump.

When Rogers formed his exploratory committee last month, he said several fellow Iowa House Republicans had encouraged him to run for Congress. A few days ago, the Rogers campaign rolled out endorsements from four current and three former Republican lawmakers whose districts include parts of IA-01. I enclose that statement below as well. Former Congressman Tom Tauke is also backing Rogers’ current campaign. Tauke represented parts of northeast Iowa in the U.S. House before losing the 1990 U.S. Senate race to Tom Harkin.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread. Besides Rogers, Rod Blum and Steve Rathje are seeking the GOP nomination. Former Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is expected to announce his campaign soon, and former State Representative Renee Schulte has said she is considering the race.  

It’s time for a new post on how Iowa’s representatives in the U.S. House and Senate are handling the ongoing shutdown of non-essential federal government operations. (Click here for details on Congressional votes and Iowa political reaction up to October 1.)

Thousands of Iowans who work for the federal government or serve in the National Guard still have no idea when they’ll receive their next paycheck. The best news I’ve heard all week is that an estimated 66,000 Iowa women and children who receive benefits through the WIC program will get their checks for October, at least.  

Although there has been no progress toward an agreement on a continuing spending resolution, I’ve noticed one big change in Iowa Congressional voting during the last few days. Whereas Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) were sticking with most of their fellow Democrats in earlier votes on federal spending, this week both Braley and Loebsack have joined House Republican attempts to fund the federal government in bits and pieces. Follow me after the jump for more details.

State Representative Walt Rogers announced on Simon Conway’s WHO radio show this afternoon that he will seek the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district. After the jump I’ve posted today’s announcement, along with a September 24 press release about staff hiring by the exploratory committee Rogers established a few weeks ago.

Rogers is the third declared Republican candidate in IA-01, after Steve Rathje and Rod Blum. Former State Senator and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate sounds ready to join the race soon, and former State Representative Renee Schulte is considering it. The eventual GOP nominee will probably go into the general election as a slight underdog. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, the first Congressional district contains 162,238 active registered Democrats, 136,263 Republicans, and 193,958 no-party voters.

Rogers’ decision creates an open seat in Iowa House district 60, covering parts of Cedar Falls and Waterloo. I considered Rogers the favorite to be re-elected in 2014, but an open-seat race could be more competitive. President Barack Obama carried Iowa House district 60 in last year’s general election, but Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage there. Iowa politics-watchers expect Matt Reisetter, the GOP nominee in Senate district 30 last year, to seek the open seat in House district 60. My understanding is that at this time, Rogers’ 2012 Democratic nominee Bob Greenwood is not planning to run for the state legislature again.

The 2014 fiscal year began at midnight. Congress is ringing in the occasion with the first partial federal government shutdown since the mid-1990s. The U.S. House and Senate have been unable to agree on a continuing spending resolution, because most House Republicans insist on defunding or delaying the 2010 health care reform law as a condition of funding most government operations.

Details on Iowa Congressional votes on budget resolutions are after the jump, along with comments from all the Iowans in Congress and many of the candidates for U.S. House or Senate.

Authorization for most federal agricultural programs also expired at midnight, and it’s not clear when Congress will be able to agree on a short-term extension or a new five-year farm bill. Toward the end of this post I’ve enclosed some comments on the failure to pass a farm bill.

This week the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council endorsed Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon for Congress. After the jump I’ve enclosed the full statement from the group, which cited Vernon’s hard work to ensure “that the Building Trades played a key role in the rebuilding of Cedar Rapids” after the 2008 flooding. According to the press release, “The Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council represents 18 building trade unions and 15,000 members in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridor.” It’s not clear how many of those members live in Linn County or other parts of IA-01. Johnson County (containing Iowa City) is in Iowa’s second Congressional district.

Vernon is one of five Democrats seeking the nomination in the open first Congressional district. To my knowledge, this is the first organized labor endorsement for anyone other than State Representative Pat Murphy. Seven labor groups have backed the former Iowa House speaker so far. On September 16 Muphy’s campaign announced endorsements from the Retail Wholesale & Department Store Union (RWDSU) Local 110 in Cedar Rapids, the Great Plains Laborers’ District Council, and Teamsters Local 120. In the summer, Murphy received the backing of AFSCME Council 61, the Communications Workers of America Iowa State Council, Operating Engineers Local 234, and the Dubuque Letter Carriers Local 257.  

With the end of the third quarter approaching on September 30, many Congressional candidates have been sending out fundraising appeals. I’ve enclosed below the latest e-mail blast from Vernon’s campaign, which features former State Senator and U.S. Senate candidate Jean Lloyd-Jones. It hammers on what will likely be a central theme for Vernon as the Democratic primary heats up: her record of getting things done.

The Republican field in Iowa’s open first Congressional district may soon expand to five candidates, matching the number of contenders on the Democratic side. Cedar Rapids-based Steve Rathje and Dubuque-based Rod Blum have been campaigning around the district for months. State Representative Walt Rogers of Cedar Falls just formed an exploratory committee, which usually leads to a full-blown campaign. During the past week, former State Senator, Cedar Rapids Mayor, and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate has indicated in interviews with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and The Iowa Republican blog that he is ready to run. I’ve posted some of his comments after the jump.

Former State Representative Renee Schulte, also of Cedar Rapids, has been encouraged to run by many fellow Republicans, including Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson. She served two terms in the Iowa House before losing her seat last November to Art Staed, the Democrat she had defeated in 2008. Speaking by telephone on September 18, Schulte told me she expects to decide on a Congressional campaign by the end of this month. She has been talking with people all over the district, not only in Linn County. She added that her decision will not rest on whether Rogers or Pate are running, but on whether she has the “bandwith” to go forward with a campaign.

On paper, Pate is the best Republican candidate by far, having the most experience as a legislator and the best electoral track record. The big question is whether he could be portrayed as too moderate in a GOP primary. For example, as a state senator from 1989 through 1994, Pate probably voted for some spending bills opponents might pick apart now, such as health and human services budgets including limited Medicaid funding for abortions. Rivals may criticize some city projects linked to Pate’s time as mayor of Cedar Rapids from 2002 through 2005.

Schulte strikes me as a potentially strong contender too. I’ve been thinking all year that Republicans would do well to nominate a woman with strong ties in Linn County, the largest of the 20 counties in IA-01. Clearly Schulte and Pate would have a better chance in the primary without the other one helping to split the Linn County vote. It will be interesting to see whether any of Rathje’s steering committee members jump ship in the coming months. Rogers, Pate and Schulte are all likely to raise substantially more money than Rathje and Blum have for their campaigns so far.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

State Representative Walt Rogers inched closer to a Congressional bid in Iowa’s open first district, telling a group of Delaware County Republicans last night that he is forming an exploratory committee. Speaking to journalist Mike Wiser, Rogers said he would evaluate his potential to raise money, adding that each of his Iowa House colleagues in IA-01 have “encouraged me to run.” The following Iowa House Republicans represent parts of this Congressional district: Speaker Kraig Paulsen, Brian Moore, Lee Hein, Quentin Stanerson, Sandy Salmon, David Maxwell, Dawn Pettengill, and Josh Byrnes.

Bleeding Heartland recently posted background on Rogers here. I doubt fundraising will be a problem for him. Not only did he raise more than the average state lawmaker for his 2012 re-election bid, he has national connections. In fact, Rogers just returned from the GOPAC Emerging Leaders Summit in Tennessee. The two declared Republican candidates in IA-01, Steve Rathje and Rod Blum, are not powerhouse fundraisers.

Assuming Rogers runs for Congress, his main competition in the GOP primary will probably be Blum. He narrowly lost the 2012 primary to establishment favorite Ben Lange and is organizing around the district, including in Rogers’ home base of Black Hawk County. Blum would likely paint Rogers as a compromiser and opportunist, like he described Speaker Paulsen. Although Rogers wouldn’t bring as much baggage into this race as Paulsen might have done, he may be vulnerable to similar attacks as a member of the Iowa House Republican leadership team.

I am seeking comment from two Republicans in Linn County who are said to be considering the IA-01 race as well: former State Representative Renee Schulte and Paul Pate, a former state senator, Cedar Rapids mayor, and Iowa Secretary of State.

Side note: if Rogers runs for IA-01, both parties are likely to target the vacant Iowa House district 60 in Cedar Falls and Waterloo. While Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage there, no-party voters are the largest group, and President Barack Obama carried House district 60 in last year’s general election.

UPDATE: Added the official announcement from Rogers after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: According to James Q. Lynch of the Cedar Rapids Gazette, Pate will enter the IA-01 primary field soon.

Depending on how a possible diplomatic breakthrough develops, the U.S. House and Senate may not take any vote on authorizing the use of military force in Syria. However, several members of Congress and Iowa Congressional candidates have made additional comments on the situation since last week’s news roundup. I’ve posted the latest statements about military action in Syria after the jump and will update this post as needed.

UPDATE: Added reaction to President Barack Obama’s televised address on Syria this evening.

Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum is running an aggressive campaign for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district. Instead of waiting for Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen to announce his expected candidacy, Blum went to Paulsen’s home-town newspaper to denounce him as an “opportunist” and “career politician.”  

With Paulsen out of the picture as a Congressional candidate, speculation has turned to State Representative Walt Rogers of Cedar Falls. (Blum has support from the “Liberty” wing of the Republican base, but many people in the GOP are looking for an alternative to him or Cedar Rapids-based businessman Steve Rathje.) Rogers has said he’s analyzing the IA-01 race. I am seeking comment on his plans and will update this post if I hear back from him.

Meanwhile, Blum’s campaign announced the creation of a Black Hawk County Steering Committee last week. I’ve posted the press release after the jump, including the names of more than two dozen steering committee members. Black Hawk County is the second-largest by population in IA-01, and Rogers would presumably need to do well in his home base to win the GOP nomination. Blum is better-known to Republican activists around the district, having nearly beaten establishment favorite Ben Lange in the 2012 primary to represent IA-01.

UPDATE: Justin Bartlett of Rogers’ Iowa House campaign responded to my request for comment, saying that Rogers “is still strongly considering a Congressional run.”

Several members of Congress from Iowa spoke out about potential U.S. intervention in Syria last week, and Bleeding Heartland sought comment on the issue from the declared Congressional candidates. News clips and the statements I’ve received so far are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. Note: most of the comments enclosed below came before President Barack Obama confirmed on August 31 that he will seek Congressional authorization for a strike on Syria. (He never sought approval for military action in Libya two years ago and he believes he has “the authority to carry out this military action [in Syria] without specific congressional authorization”.)

I am 100 percent convinced that both the House and the Senate will approve the use of force in Syria, perhaps after revising the administration’s first draft, which “is not particularly constrained.”  

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I am no expert on foreign policy or the Middle East, but my gut feeling is that military intervention will not accomplish anything good in Syria. It’s a “tall order” to “mount a limited, targeted, and effective strike that will indeed deter Assad without drawing the United States deeper into the ongoing civil war, causing unacceptable unintended consequences.” By the way, former State Department official William Polk wrote the most interesting analysis I’ve read so far about the situation there.  

State Representative Pat Murphy announced yesterday that he has received the Communication Workers of America Iowa State Council’s endorsement as a Congressional candidate in Iowa’s first district. According to a press release I’ve posted after the jump, the CWA Iowa State Council approved the endorsement at a regional conference on August 19. Murphy’s campaign held off on spreading the news until August 20, the same day State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic made her Congressional campaign official. Incidentally, the president of CWA Local 7110 is Francis Giunta, longtime chair of Murphy’s Iowa House campaigns and his preferred candidate the last time Dubuque had an open Iowa House district. Chuck Isenhart defeated Giunta in the 2008 Democratic primary for that seat.

The CWA Iowa State Council is the fourth labor union to endorse the former Iowa House speaker in IA-01. With an estimated 4,500 members statewide, including retirees, it’s not nearly as large as AFSCME Iowa Council 61, which backed Murphy earlier this summer.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. At this point I consider Murphy the front-runner in the five-way Democratic primary. He has raised enough money to run a credible district-wide campaign, even if he doesn’t end up with the largest war chest. Three women candidates may split the votes of Democrats who want to make history with this election. Three candidates from the Cedar Rapids area will compete for support in the district’s most populous county. Labor activists will be helpful as Murphy tries to get out the vote before next June’s Democratic primary. If no candidate wins the primary outright with at least 35 percent of the vote, a district convention will select the nominee. Murphy has become acquainted with a huge number of activists in northeast Iowa during his long career in the state legislature. Furthermore, labor unions can provide the organization to get sympathetic county delegates elected at the precinct caucuses in January, and district delegates elected at the county conventions next spring.

State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic kicks off her Congressional campaign today with events in Marshalltown, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Dubuque. I enclose her campaign’s press release after the jump. Like rival first district candidate Swati Dandekar, Kajtazovic emphasizes her life story as an example of the American dream. Like outgoing U.S. Representative Bruce Braley, Kajtazovic lives in Waterloo, and she describes herself in today’s announcement as a “Bruce Braley Democrat” who “will grow on his progressive legacy” in Congress.

I will update this post later for clips from Kajtazovic’s events today. Earlier this month she launched her campaign website and completed a “listening tour” of all 20 counties in the first Congressional district.

I highly recommend watching KWWL journalist Ron Steele’s interview with Kajtazovic, which aired over the weekend: part 1, part 2, and part 3.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread. The district leans Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+5. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, IA-01 contains 162,447 active registered Democrats, 136,290 Republicans, and 192,715 no-party voters. Kajtazovic will compete in the Democratic primary against former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy of Dubuque and three candidates from Linn County: former State Senator Dandekar, Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, and Cedar Rapids-based attorney Dave O’Brien.  

The Democratic primary in the open first Congressional district will be one of Iowa’s most interesting elections next year. In addition to separate posts on major developments in the race, I plan to update Bleeding Heartland readers periodically on how all five Democrats are campaigning. The winner of the primary will go into the general election as the slight favorite given the partisan lean of this D+5 district and the voter registration advantage for Democrats there.

Follow me after the jump for recent news about each of the contenders.

Some intensely competitive elections are coming up in Iowa, and naturally, Bleeding Heartland readers will have different preferences regarding the best Democratic candidate for governor, first Congressional district, or other races. I noticed some problems with comment ratings on this post about the Des Moines City Council at-large election, which pits two well-liked Democrats against each other.

It’s time for another reminder about the rules for rating comments at Bleeding Heartland, so I’ve posted them after the jump. “Zero” ratings can lead to comments being hidden from view and should not be used to signal your disagreement with the commenter. Doing so is ratings abuse. A “2” is sufficient to show that you strongly disagree with the person. If you have applied a 1 or zero rating to a comment based solely on your opinion, please go back to that diary and remove your rating from the comment.  

State Representative Walt Rogers confirmed to the Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier that he is analyzing a bid for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district now that House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has passed on the race. Rogers hopes to decide later this summer whether to run for Congress. After the jump I’ve enclosed background on Rogers and early thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.

I also included a map of Iowa House district 60 and the latest voter registration numbers for the seat Rogers would have to leave open if he runs for Congress in 2014.

Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has chickened out decided he feels compelled to continue serving in the state legislature rather than run for Congress in the open first district. In e-mails to supporters and House Republican colleagues today, Paulsen said he did not feel “called” to serve in Congress. Speaking to Radio Iowa’s O. Kay Henderson, Paulsen elaborated,

“What in May and early June to some degree seemed like a very obvious and easy decision, as I started to work through it, it just became apparent to me that the task before me is in Des Moines, not Washington, D.C.”

Like most Iowa politics watchers, I had expected Paulsen to run, especially after I learned that his chief executive officer, Doug Struyk, resigned to become a lobbyist. Frankly, I am disappointed by the news. I believe Paulsen would have lost the GOP primary to Rod Blum, who has been campaigning around IA-01 for months and already started making a case against the “career politician” and “compromiser.” I also was looking forward to seeing who would prevail in an Iowa House Republican leadership election.

With Paulsen out, speculation will turn to two-term State Representative Walt Rogers, a rising star in the House GOP caucus. He confirmed earlier this year that he was considering the Congressional race. He would be the only Republican candidate from Waterloo/Cedar Falls, the second-largest metro area in the district. The other declared candidates are Steve Rathje of Cedar Rapids, the largest city in IA-01, and Blum of Dubuque, the third-largest city.

Paulsen said today that he expects to “have a Republican congressman” after next year’s election. The district leans Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+5. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, IA-01 contains 162,447 active registered Democrats, 136,290 Republicans, and 192,715 no-party voters.

UPDATE: The full text of Paulsen’s e-mail to supporters is after the jump. Also, I forgot about former Cedar Rapids Mayor and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate, who indicated earlier this year that he was considering the IA-01 race. According to The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall, “the belief was he would not run if Paulsen did. However, even with Paulsen officially out of the race, Pate’s interest appears to be cooling.”

I haven’t seen any official announcement or press release, but State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic has launched an Anesa for Iowa campaign website, as well as a fundraising page for a Congressional campaign on ActBlue. As of Friday evening, her Facebook page features a new photo of an Irish-themed “Anesa Kajtazovic for Congress” logo in honor of the Irish fest scheduled for this weekend in Waterloo.

Kajtazovic is the fifth Democrat seeking the nomination in Iowa’s first district, which Bruce Braley is vacating to run for the U.S. Senate. State Representative Pat Murphy was the first to declare, followed by Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O’Brien, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar. 

Former Lieutenant Governor and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge is advising former State Senator Swati Dandekar’s campaign for Iowa’s first Congressional district, James Q. Lynch reports for the Cedar Rapids Gazette today. The article also includes comments from Dandekar and Judge on perhaps the biggest obstacle facing Dandekar’s candidacy: the perception that she risked the Iowa Senate majority in 2011.

After the jump I’ve posted excerpts from Lynch’s article and a few thoughts about why accepting a position on the Iowa Utilities Board will likely be a problem for Dandekar in the IA-01 primary.

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar launched her Congressional campaign yesterday in Marion, saying she is a “testament that the American dream is alive.” I’ve posted her official bio and news release after the jump; her campaign is online at Swati Dandekar for Congress. James Q. Lynch reported on yesterday’s event, where Dandekar emphasized her commitment to education and helping to create “jobs that pay living wages.”

Dandekar won multiple elections in swing Iowa legislative districts. While her moderate image may have crossover appeal, getting through the Democratic primary will be a major challenge. Dandekar said yesterday that she was encouraged by conversations with voters across IA-01. But key factions in the Democratic base resent aspects of her legislative record and the fact that she put the Iowa Senate majority at risk by accepting a position on the Iowa Utilities Board in 2011. Furthermore, the Democratic primary competition in IA-01 includes Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, a onetime Republican who will draw support from Linn County moderates.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread.

Abby Finkenauer announced on Facebook Monday that she was “thrilled” to be endorsed by the political arm of Iowa’s largest labor union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Finkenauer is one of three Democrats running in Dubuque-based Iowa House district 99, which Pat Murphy is vacating to run for Congress. She is a former page to Murphy when he was Iowa House speaker and has most recently clerked for State Representative Todd Taylor. Former State Representative Tom Jochum is backing Finkenauer’s candidacy too.

The AFSCME Iowa Council 61 PEOPLE Committee endorsed Murphy and several other Congressional candidates Monday, but I couldn’t find anything on their website about Finkenauer’s race. AFSCME staff confirmed by telephone this morning that the PEOPLE committee is backing Finkenauer but would not provide any statement on the endorsement or any comment on whether the state’s largest labor union plans to get involved in any other Democratic primaries in legislative districts. Finkenauer commented in her Facebook post, “I know that they do not normally endorse in State House primaries, so I am beyond honored to have their support and encouragement as I continue to work to be the best Democratic candidate for Iowa House District 99 […].”

I understand taking sides in a primary when one candidate is clearly best poised to win the general election or advocate for a group’s issues. But House district 99 is a safe seat for any Democrat, and rival candidates Steve Drahozal and Greg Simpson sound equally committed to progressive values. If AFSCME isn’t even willing to issue a statement explaining its preference for Finkenauer, maybe the union would do better to stay out of primaries.

UPDATE: AFSCME provided a statement via e-mail, which I have added after the jump.

The Daily Kos Elections team has been compiling 2012 presidential election results by state legislative district as well as by Congressional district, state by state. Last week the Iowa numbers were added to the database. I took a first stab at previewing the battle for control of the Iowa Senate next year, using data including the raw vote totals and percentages for President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in each district.

The Daily Kos database includes Obama and Romney vote totals and percentages for each Iowa House district here. After the jump I’ve incorporated that information and other factors to predict which Iowa House districts will be competitive in 2014. Writing this post has been challenging, because every election cycle brings surprises, and many more seats in the lower chamber will be in play. Unlike the Iowa Senate, where only half of the 50 members are on the ballot in each general election, all 100 Iowa House members are on ballot in every even-numbered year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the lower chamber.

The elections arm of Iowa’s largest labor union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, announced five endorsements for the 2014 elections today. I’ve posted the whole statement from the AFSCME Iowa Council 61 PEOPLE Committee after the jump. The biggest news is AFSCME coming out early for former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy in IA-01. Two other Democrats are already campaigning for that open seat, probably to be joined soon by State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic and former State Senator Swati Dandekar.

In IA-03, AFSCME will back former State Senator Staci Appel, who voted for a number of pro-labor bills during her four years in the legislature. Gabriel De La Cerda is also running in the Democratic primary and was an Iowa political coordinator for the United Steel Workers Union during the 2012 general election campaign. No one will be surprised to see AFSCME supporting four-term incumbent Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Jim Mowrer in IA-04, where no other Democrat is likely to take on Steve King.

AFSCME hasn’t endorsed a Democratic challenger to Governor Terry Branstad yet. The only statewide candidate named in today’s release is Brad Anderson for Iowa secretary of state. He has the backing of most of Iowa’s Democratic establishment and may not face any competition in the primary, although former Secretary of State Michael Mauro hasn’t ruled out a comeback attempt.

Great catch by Megan Day Suhr, a onetime lobbyist and Democratic candidate for the Iowa House in 2012. Former State Representative Doug Struyk has left his position as chief executive officer to Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, a job he had held since May 2012.

Suhr noticed that as of this week, Struyk is now registered to lobby Iowa’s executive branch on behalf of about 40 clients. Struyk’s Linked In page lists his current employment as Carney & Appleby, PLC, a firm specializing in personal injury litigation and lobbying.

First elected to the Iowa House as a Democrat in 2002, Struyk switched parties shortly before the 2004 filing deadline for candidates. He was re-elected to the legislature as a Republican three times and retired in 2010. He then served as an adviser and legal counsel to Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz until joining Paulsen’s staff last year. Although he is not registered to lobby the legislative branch, it seems very soon for Struyk to move from a government position to lobbying.

By the way, Struyk’s departure from the Iowa House staff is another hint that Paulsen is planning to run for Congress in the first district.

Yesterday was the deadline for Congressional candidates to submit second-quarter financial reports to the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from the reports in Iowa’s four U.S. House districts are after the jump.

Bleeding Heartland will cover the U.S. Senate candidates’ financial reports in a separate post.

Speaking of the Federal Election Commission, did you know that Republican commissioners are trying to make it more difficult for professional staff to report campaign finance violations to federal prosecutors? Republicans are all about “law and order” except when laws inconvenience big-money interests.

Dave O’Brien launched his campaign for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district this week. Speaking in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday, O’Brien said he’s “sick and tired of playing defense” and ready to “go the on offensive with an aggressive and progressive policy agenda.” He called for policies oriented toward building the middle class and improving our infrastructure.

O’Brien’s campaign is on the web, Facebook, and Twitter. I’ve posted his campaign announcement and official bio after the jump. He emphasizes that he’s a “lifelong progressive Democrat”–an unspoken contrast with Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, who was a Republican until 2009, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, long known as one of the more conservative Democrats in the Iowa legislature. Vernon kicked off her Congressional campaign last month, and Dandekar appears likely to announce later this summer. Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy has been running for months, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic recently formed an exploratory committee.

The typical division of labor in campaigns nowadays is for the candidate to stay mostly positive when communicating with voters, while political parties or outside groups do the hatchet work on opponents. That pattern is already developing in the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Democratic candidate Bruce Braley is touting his record and his stands on the issues as a way to get his name out and identify supporters. Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has taken a few shots at candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

If future salvos look anything like the website the Iowa Democratic Party created to mock David Young, Braley might be better off without their help.

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar has resigned from the Iowa Utilities Board, effective July 22. Her resignation letter (pdf) does not give any specific reason for the decision but thanks Governor Terry Branstad for the opportunity to serve. The governor accepted Dandekar’s resignation and will search for her replacement. Branstad appointed Dandekar to the three-member Iowa Utilities Board in September 2011, forcing a special election in her swing Senate district (suburban Linn County). Democrat Liz Mathis won that election and was re-elected to a four-year term in 2012.

Dandekar’s term on the utilities board was to run through April 2015. I assume she would not leave that position unless she has decided to run for Congress in the open first district. I am surprised that she seems ready to follow through, because there have been few public signs of life from her exploratory committee since it was created two months ago. For example, there have been no postings on Facebook or twitter since May 9, nor am I aware of any press releases. In my opinion, the Democratic primary will be an uphill battle for Dandekar.

Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O’Brien has events scheduled for July 10 in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo. Assuming he and Dandekar both announce candidacies in IA-01, that makes five Democrats seeking to replace Bruce Braley: three from Linn County (Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, Dandekar, and O’Brien), State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic of Waterloo (in the exploratory committee phase for now). I believe at least one or two of those candidates will end up not filing for the ballot next March.  

Two-term Iowa House Democrat Anesa Kajtazovic announced today that she is exploring a run for Congress in Iowa’s first district. She plans a “listening tour” in the 20 counties. I haven’t seen a campaign website yet, but Kajtazovic has a Facebook page here. I’ve posted her official bio after the jump. Kajtazovic was first elected to an Iowa House seat covering part of Waterloo in 2010. Her primary challenge prompted then-incumbent State Representative Kerry Burt to retire under pressure. She has long been considered a “rising star” in Iowa Democratic circles. Running for Congress would mean that she cannot seek re-election in House district 61 next year. She tweeted on July 3, “‘Sometimes the riskiest decision we make can turn out to be the best’ a friend once told me……”

If elected, Kajtazovic would be one of the youngest members of the U.S. House (she turns 27 next year). She might also become the only Bosnia native in Congress. Her family fled the war in former Yugoslavia during the 1990s, and she commented today, “I was always pasionate about policy, and just what goes on in the world around. I think I was influenced at a young age that it really does matter, after going through war.”

The other declared Democratic candidates in IA-01 are former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon. I haven’t seen much sign of activity from former State Senator Swati Dandekar’s exploratory committee. State Representative Tyler Olson hasn’t ruled out running for Congress yet, but most expect him to announce a gubernatorial campaign soon. Like Vernon, Dandekar and Olson are from Linn County. Kajtazovic’s home county, Black Hawk, is the second-largest by population in IA-01, followed by Dubuque.

John Deeth is on board with Kajtazovic already. I’ll be happy to see any strong candidate emerge from a clean, competitive primary. It can’t be bad to have several Democrats pounding the pavement to ID supporters next spring. IA-01 leans Democratic but isn’t a safe seat, especially in a midterm election year. As of July 2013, the 20 counties contained a total of 162,549 active registered Democrats, 136,259 Republicans, and 192,142 no-party voters. UPDATE: Added Kajtazovic’s official announcement below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

I’ve been thinking about how bad assumptions produce flawed theories and poor decisions. Steve Denning wrote an excellent piece for Forbes about Milton Friedman and the origin of “the world’s dumbest idea”: “that the sole purpose of a firm is to make money for its shareholders.”

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for the conservative website RealClearPolitics, recently spun some rosy scenarios for Republicans worried about their party’s over-reliance on white voters. GOP candidates would be extremely foolish to count on his “racial polarization” scenario panning out. His “full Rubio” and “modest Republican outreach toward Hispanics” scenarios seem too optimistic to me as well.

High nitrate levels in Iowa waterways continue to make news, as they have for the last two months. I enjoyed this Des Moines Register editorial from Saturday’s paper. Excerpt:

During a meeting with The Des Moines Register’s editorial board earlier this year, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen made the claim that Iowa’s rivers are actually cleaner today than they were in the past. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. But Paulsen’s comment speaks to a troubling mentality that permeates the Iowa Legislature: If you just tell Iowans the water is OK often enough, maybe they will believe you and will think the lake they are swimming in doesn’t really smell like a toilet.

I don’t take my kids swimming in any Iowa lakes, and I won’t feel a bit sorry for Paulsen if he runs for Congress and loses the Republican primary, as I expect.

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that the federal Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional. The ruling means that legally married gay and lesbian couples in Iowa and elsewhere will be entitled to equal treatment under federal law. More than 200 Congressional Democrats, including Senator Tom Harkin and Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, signed an amicus curiae brief urging justices to strike down the key provision of the DOMA, adopted in 1996 with overwhelming bipartisan support.  

In a separate case, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that backers of California’s Proposition 8 did not have standing to appeal a lower-court ruling striking down that ballot initiative. The decision means that LGBT couples will be allowed to marry in California. It does not affect other states’ statutory or constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. Braley and Loebsack were among scores of Congressional Democrats who recently posed for the “NoH8” campaign supporting marriage equality and opposing Prop 8.

Excerpts from the DOMA decision and Iowa reaction to today’s rulings are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. At this writing, most of the Congressional delegation has not publicly commented on the Supreme Court decisions.

I also enclose below Democratic State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad’s reaction to yesterday’s disgraceful 5-4 Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.

Catching up on news from last week, two-time Republican nominee Ben Lange has confirmed that he will not run for Congress next year in the open first district. Lange’s written statement, which I enclose at the end of this post, cited family reasons. As a practical matter, he would have been an underdog to win the nomination in IA-01 for a third time. He barely defeated Rod Blum in the 2012 primary despite having raised far more money and hired a larger campaign staff. In that race, many prominent Iowa Republicans and the National Republican Congressional Committee favored Lange, probably because he had come so close to defeating incumbent Bruce Braley in 2010. But Braley easily won re-election last year, carrying 17 of the 20 counties in IA-01.

Also last week, Blum previewed his case against likely primary rival Kraig Paulsen, the speaker of the Iowa House. I recommend reading the whole article by James Q. Lynch for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. A few excerpts are after the jump. I believe that Blum’s attacks on Paulsen will resonate with many activists who participate in Republican primaries.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Iowa Republicans will have at least two women on the statewide ballot in 2014: Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds and State Auditor Mary Mosiman, who kicked off her election campaign on Thursday in Des Moines. Excerpts from Kevin Hall’s write-up of the event are after the jump.

State Senator Joni Ernst could also become a statewide nominee if she joins the U.S. Senate race, as expected. I think she has strong potential in a GOP primary against three or four men. At this writing, no Democratic woman has announced plans to run for any statewide office in Iowa, but several have either launched or are considering Congressional campaigns.

This week Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer replaced Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen on the Legislative Leaders Advisory Board of Newt Gingrich’s organization GOPAC. Upmeyer was an early endorser of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign. Paulsen endorsed Gingrich shortly before the 2012 Iowa caucuses. If Paulsen runs for Congress in the open first district, Upmeyer will probably also seek to replace him as Iowa House speaker. She would be the first woman to reach that position in our state, although she’s not a shoo-in for the job. (For what it’s worth, I doubt Paulsen would win an IA-01 Republican primary.)

Last month Upmeyer and Reynolds joined the national advisory board of the Republican State Leadership Committee’s project to recruit more women candidates, called Right Women, Right Now. Upmeyer has served on the national board of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) for several years.

Speaking of women elected officials, Eric Ostermeier wrote an interesting piece for the Smart Politics blog on how the 78 women in the U.S. House identify themselves. Three Republicans go by “Congressman” instead of “Congresswoman” or “Representative.”

Yesterday Governor Terry Branstad traveled to Hiawatha, the home base of Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, to sign a wide-ranging bill on property taxes, income taxes, and the earned income tax credit. Senate File 295 passed both chambers of the Iowa legislature with bipartisan support. Every Republican voted for the bill, as did all but six Senate Democrats and thirteen House Democrats, named here. You can read the full text of Senate File 295 here. Bleeding Heartland covered the key points in the deal here.

The property tax law is one of the most important outcomes of this year’s legislative session. It will be a major theme in next year’s campaigns for governor and the state legislature. After the jump I offer five perspectives on this law: three from supporters of the deal and two with a gloomier view of its likely impact.

State Representative Tyler Olson is stepping down as Iowa Democratic Party chair. Scott Brennan, an attorney who served as party chair during the 2007/2008 cycle, will step in. Click here for background on Brennan. I’ve posted the IDP’s press release after the jump.

Many Democrats expect Olson to announce a candidacy for governor soon, although he hasn’t ruled out running for the open first Congressional district seat. Olson said recently that he would need to resign as party chair if he decided to run for anything other than the Iowa House in 2014. In retrospect, IDP State Central Committee members should have considered whether it was wise to elect a new party chair in January who had not ruled out running for governor. But for reasons I don’t understand, the Iowa Democratic Party leadership is only comfortable with Soviet-style elections, rubber-stamping the choice of the candidate who will be at the top of the ticket. One of these years, central committee members should allow a more open discussion when it’s time to elect a party leader. Meaning no offense toward Brennan, who is capable by all accounts, I believe Democrats could benefit from allowing multiple candidates to present plans for growing the party organization, improving communication, GOTV, and so on.

Assuming he runs for higher office, Olson will leave a safe Democratic Iowa House seat open in 2014. House district 65, covering a large area in Cedar Rapids east of I-380, contains 9,535 registered Democrats, 4,909 Republicans, and 7,296 no-party voters as of June 2013.

UPDATE: Speaking to Radio Iowa, Olson said he is unlikely to run for the Iowa House in 2014. He will decide on a Congressional or gubernatorial campaign in the next few weeks.

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon launched her campaign for Congress in Iowa’s first district today. Her website currently contains only a donation button and a brief statement, which I’ve posted after the jump. Vernon was first elected to the city council as a Republican in 2007, changed her party affiliation in 2009, and was easily re-elected in 2011.

Vernon just joined twitter and is on Facebook here. As of 2 pm on June 4, Vernon’s page had 73 “likes.” The Facebook page for the Swati Dandekar exploratory committee was launched on May 9 and has six “likes” at this writing. UPDATE: As of 9 am on June 5, Vernon for Congress has 480 Facebok “likes.”

Many Democrats are eager to nominate a woman in IA-01, so that we can end our state’s embarrassing connection to Mississippi.

The latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in this Congressional district are after the jump as well. IA-01 leans Democratic, and Linn County is the largest by population.

State Senator Jeff Danielson e-mailed supporters Monday evening to announce,

I will not be seeking any office during the 2014 elections. I’ve received tremendous support and encouragement by Iowans from all walks of life to run for either Congress or statewide office. It’s been overwhelming for an Iowa kid from humble beginnings.

I have obligations to family, work and community here in the Cedar Valley that I enjoy and want to devote my energy to at this moment in time.

Thanks again for your continued support and I look forward to working with you to keep Iowa pro-growth & progressive for years to come.

Iowa’s first Congressional district covers 20 counties, including the Waterloo/Cedar Falls metro area in Black Hawk County. State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy in that district, left open when Representative Bruce Braley decided to run for U.S. Senate. Cedar Rapids City Council Member Monica Vernon is a likely Democratic candidate, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, also of Linn County, has formed an exploratory committee.

Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen is thinking seriously about running for Congress in the open first district, covering 20 counties in northeast and central Iowa. He hasn’t given a timeline for making up his mind and has said he’s trying to figure out “what’s the best way to serve Iowans. What meets their needs?”

I would suggest that Paulsen consider this cold, hard reality: he is unlikely to serve Iowans as a member of Congress, because he would lose the GOP primary in IA-01.

UPDATE: Scroll to the end of this post for a sixth reason.

Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson told the Des Moines Register this week that he will not run for governor in 2014. I asked Danielson today whether he is still considering running for Congress in the open first district. Having just been re-elected to a four-year term in Iowa Senate district 30, Danielson could run for higher office next year without giving up his Senate seat. Regarding the IA-01 race, Danielson responded,

I have not made a decision. I have no timeline. My decision will be independent of who’s in or who’s out on either side of the ticket.

State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy in IA-01. Cedar Rapids City Council Member Monica Vernon is planning to run, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, also of Linn County, has formed an exploratory committee. No Democrat from Black Hawk County has entered the race. The Waterloo/Cedar Falls area, where Danielson lives, is the second-largest metro area in IA-01.

After the jump I’ve posted voter registration totals for all 20 counties in the first Congressional district. Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen confirmed yesterday that he may run for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district. If he does so, he can’t seek re-election to the Iowa House and probably would do well to step down as speaker before next year’s legislative session. It would be hard to campaign effectively across the 20 counties in IA-01 while trying to manage affairs in the Iowa House. Paulsen wouldn’t be a sure thing in the primary; Steve Rathje and Rod Blum are also seeking the GOP nomination, and others may enter the race.

The obvious successor to Paulsen is Linda Upmeyer, who has served as House majority leader for the past three years. If chosen, she would be the first woman speaker of the Iowa House, and I believe her family would also make history as the first parent/child pair who were both speakers. Upmeyer’s father is Del Stromer, who was a legislative leader during the 1980s. But Cityview’s Civic Skinny columnist recently reported Republican rumors that State Representative Peter Cownie may be the next speaker. Skinny added that choosing Cownie would be a “snub” to Upmeyer.

After the jump I’ve listed the 53 Iowa House Republicans, grouped by length of service in the lower chamber. Note that more than half of the House GOP caucus has served in the Iowa legislature for less than four years.

Any scenario spinning about the IA-01 campaign or the next Iowa House leader is welcome in this thread.

It’s time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he’s keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.  

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon “is nearly ready to announce” her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff’s attorney Dave O’Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O’Brien’s background is similar to Bruce Braley’s before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn’t ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he’s thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is “90 percent” likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It’s also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn’t dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.