# 2024 Elections



Vote for freedom and representation Iowans can be proud of

Sami Scheetz represents Iowa House district 78, covering part of Cedar Rapids.

When we brought our daughter home from the hospital a few months ago, and I watched our baby swaddled in her bassinet, sleeping peacefully, I couldn’t help but think about the future my wife and I are building for her. Now, with the November 5 election a few days away, I wonder: What kind of place will Iowa be for families today and for generations to come?

When my daughter grows up, will she find an Iowa that is as inclusive, welcoming, and safe as the one I inherited—or will she find an Iowa neither of us recognize, a place where people feel they have little in common with their government, and their voices are not heard?

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Good anger

Andy Johnson works in the locally-owned clean energy transition, and farms with his wife and three daughters in rural Winneshiek County, northeast Iowa.

Is Kamala Harris angry? I sure as hell hope so, and I wish she’d say so.

The angry American right does its darnedest to paint her as an angry Black woman. This angry white male Iowa farmer wishes she’d get mad, in a good way.

Here is what I imagine she might say.

“Fellow Americans, I’m angry!

“I’m angry that so many of us blindly picture our two candidates for national leadership as either an angry white man or an angry black woman. We’re better than that.

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The African-American vote and Kamala Harris

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

In November of last year, I asked, “Are Republicans really gaining among Black voters?” Since then, political reporters have written article after article on the subject. A New York Times story about a recent poll declared, “Black voters drift from Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid.” This week, Newsweek wrote about a different poll using the headline, “Donald Trump sees surge in support among Black Virginia Voters.”

Before I get the data, I want to make a serious point. These stories insulate Trump from the plain meaning of his language. See, he tells his supporters, I am not a racist: Black people are voting for me. So, while this question may seem like something only data nerds should care about, media coverage of the African-American vote has very real consequences for the political conversation in this country.

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Nazi analogies and today's U.S. political landscape

Henry Jay Karp is the Rabbi Emeritus of Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, which he served from 1985 to 2017. He is the co-founder and co-convener of One Human Family QCA, a social justice organization.

In 1990, Michael Godwin observed a phenomenon on internet and proposed a concept known as “Godwin’s Law of Nazi Analogies.” It stated, “As an online discussion continues, the probability of a reference or comparison to Hitler or Nazis approaches one.” Godwin’s law quickly spread to all forms of conversations and debates on hot-button issues.

Folks like me, who did not grasp the meaning of the phrase “approaches one,” have explained it as either “you know the discussion has gone on too long” or “that thread is over and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress.” As a writer in the Guardian once reframed it, “The longer an argument runs, the greater the likelihood Hitler gets mentioned.”

The point of this rule is that Nazi analogies are over the top. They are a kind of hyperbole that trivializes an argument, using reckless and thoughtless comparisons to win.

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Trump's rhetoric divides us

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Before malls became teen hang outs, there were drive-in theaters. In the 1970s, they attracted teens and were a place to dream about bench seat heaven with a date. After all, they were known as “passion pits.”

The crowd at the local “passion pit” didn’t really care about deep plot lines and moving themes. When you pulled into a spot with a date, you were showing your world, you were stepping out. There were always a few families, but the place was filled with teens.

Movie makers knew what their audience craved, and they fed them. You could watch three movies in one night, and they were the weirdest, wildest horror films ever made.

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Eleven Iowa Senate races to watch in 2024

This post has been updated with unofficial results from the November 5 election, as well as the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures and absentee ballot totals as of November 2. Original post follows.

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

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Pesky political TV ads are short on context

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

It’s a challenge, but not impossible, to find topics on which Republicans and Democrats share the same view these days. Here’s one: election day means we can all celebrate the end of those infernal television commercials. 

My tolerance for these ads has never been high. One reason is the way their assertions oversimplify the pluses (or the minuses) of one candidate’s or the other’s stand on some issue.

It is not really a surprise, however, because politicians have long claimed they will solve some problem or their opponent is to blame for that problem.

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A border tale

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

In the time before the election, I’ve become a TV junkie. So, I did see a clip of Donald Trump trying to win votes in Pennsylvania by telling penis jokes. It shows how low he and his applauding fans can go.

Arnold Palmer’s daughter told ABC News Donald Trump had disrespected her late father’s memory by fawning over the size of the golf champion’s penis. There’ll probably be a cross burned in their front yard.

It’s now nine days until voters decide the fate of the nation and possibly the whole world. I’m on pins and needles. Anxious, and frankly, scared.

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Iowa ag sector quiet about Trump's damaging tariff plans

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

Pundits are fond of saying that elections are about the economy, and people’s relationship to it. “It’s the economy, stupid” and all that. It may be true—but there’s certainly evidence to the contrary.

Look no further than the reaction to Donald Trump’s tariff proposals from Iowans whose livelihoods depend on the agriculture sector.

Maybe the more accurate comment would be “What reaction?”

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If you can't be yourself, be Tim Walz or Dave Heaton

Charles Bruner was a state legislator from 1978 through 1990 and ran his campaigns as an advocate for children and families, turning his Senate district blue after two decades of Republican representation. More resources on the Kamala Harris care agenda for children are available on the Harris for Kids website.

The image above is a refrigerator magnet I created for this election. I served in the Iowa legislature from 1978 to 1990, which were “kinder and gentler” times.

Molly Ivins has said that “if the state legislature didn’t have its share of fools, it wouldn’t be a truly representative body.” Yet she also said that democracy works because there are enough decent people elected who take the time to listen and learn and act diligently to try to do what is in the public interest. Moreover, they earn the respect of their less-diligent peers and influence them. They may not always be right, but they are right-thinking and open enough to prevail.

One of the most heartening things I have heard throughout this election season is Tim Walz’s interview with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show. It’s worth watching in full.

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Don't confuse inflation with the economy

Marty Ryan previously published a version of this essay in the November 2024 issue of the Prairie Progressive.

Campaign strategist Jim Carville coined the phrase “[It’s] the economy, stupid” back in 1992 when he worked on Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign. That phrase “was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on.”

Evidently, the intent, if not the quote, has come back to the 2024 campaign. U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been insisting in one of her campaign’s television commercials that “we gotta bring these prices down.” Good luck!

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"Thank you"—a reminder to show your support for Kamala Harris

Bernie Scolaro is a retired school counselor, a past president of the Sioux City Education Association, and former Sioux City school board member.

I would park around the corner and wait until there was no traffic, no sign of people, before getting out and swiftly entering the bar in Sioux City, Iowa. It was the 1980s, and entering and leaving Three Cheers (the only gay bar in town) without being noticed was always a challenge. I felt the stigma of having to hide who I was, deny myself, not knowing who would approve or disapprove, or what the backlash might be if I were exposed.

At some point in my life, I came to a crossroads. I realized not only that I had to be true to myself, but also that I needed to let others know and accept me. While took too long, I eventually realized that I had another responsibility as well: to show others it’s okay if you are gay and love whom you love. I realized that being open helped others accept themselves and/or their family members who were struggling with their identity.

Earlier this week, I went to dinner. I was wearing RAYGUN’s “Iowa for Kamala” t-shirt while my partner wore RAYGUN’s “Mind your own damn business” t-shirt. 

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Iowans will vote on two constitutional amendments this November

Linda Schreiber is a member of the League of Women Voters of Johnson County.

Amending the Iowa Constitution is a long process. State lawmakers must approve identical language in two consecutive separately elected legislatures before a proposed amendment goes on a statewide ballot.

This November, in addition to electing candidates for federal, state, and county offices, Iowans will consider two proposed state constitutional amendments: on Voting Age and Citizenship, and on Gubernatorial Succession.

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Walks filled with wonder

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

If you’ve had the privilege of walking with a four-year-old, you’ll understand what pure wonder looks like. Their eyes dilate as they purse their lips. They touch the newfound object with loving care.  They stare for what seems like hours. 

My four-year-old companion becomes a miniature investigative reporter, with machine gun questions. “Why is the sky blue?” “What kind of bug is that?” “How do birds fly?” “Why does that cloud look like my dog?” 

It’s like being questioned by tiny Bob Woodward.

It’s exhilarating and enlightening.

But like some politicians, you’re relieved when you look around and find no fact checker.

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My Republican friends know

Bill Bumgarner is a retired former health care executive from northwest Iowa who worked
in hospital management for 41 years, predominantly in the state of Iowa.

I live in a region of Iowa where about 68 percent of voters cast their ballot for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

Naturally, that overwhelming majority included many of my friends, neighbors, and those with whom I’ve joined to help enhance our community. I like and respect these people for reasons that have nothing to do with electoral politics. 

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How Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided big cases

Voters will decide in November whether to let Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May serve in that role for another eight years.

Justice May is heavily favored to keep his job. There is no organized statewide campaign against him, comparable to the well-funded efforts to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010 and 2012. His two colleagues who were up for retention in 2022 each received about 67 percent “yes” votes.

However, many reproductive rights advocates have circulated emails or social media posts calling on Iowans to vote against the newest justice, because in June he joined the 4-3 majority opinion that allowed the state to enforce a near-total abortion ban. Abortion is a more salient issue in this year’s election than it was two years ago.

It can be difficult for voters to find detailed information about the judges on the ballot. This post provides context on how Justice May has approached Iowa Supreme Court cases in several areas of the law. Bleeding Heartland previously covered the highest- and lowest-rated Iowa Court of Appeals and District Court judges who are up for retention this year.

If Justice May receives more “no” than “yes” votes—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—his tenure on the court will end in December. The State Judicial Nominating Commission would interview candidates for the vacancy and send three finalists to Governor Kim Reynolds for her consideration. Notably, nine of the seventeen commission members are themselves Reynolds appointees, so conservatives would likely end up on the short list of Supreme Court nominees.

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My case against Iowa's proposed gubernatorial succession amendment

Bill Brauch is a retired Iowa lawyer. He served as an Assistant Iowa Attorney General from 1987 to 2015, and was Director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Attorney General’s office from 1995 until 2015. He is a 1987 graduate, with distinction, of the University of Iowa College of Law. He is presently chair of the Polk County Democrats. 

An Iowa constitutional amendment on the November ballot would insert in the state constitution a process for filling a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. Under the amendment, if the governor dies, resigns, or is removed from office, the lieutenant governor would assume the office of governor for the remainder of the term, thereby creating a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor, which the new governor could fill by appointment.

While Iowa currently has a vacancy in that office following the resignation of Lieutenant Governor Adam Gregg, the governor already has the power to appoint Gregg’s successor. This proposed amendment was driven by what happened in 2017 when Governor Terry Branstad was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to China, and the powers of the governor devolved onto Kim Reynolds. 

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How Lanon Baccam is seeking a restoration of Iowa at its best

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

There’s not supposed to be any crying in politics.

Only sometimes there is. My own tears, even.

Iowa Democratic Congressional candidate Lanon Baccam, born in Mount Pleasant and raised by his immigrant parents, spent part of a summer speech talking about the Iowa of our youth when this state soared. Immigrants and blended families were embraced. Vision and kindness and big-heartedness prevailed in the state under Governor Robert Ray as we absorbed abandoned kids and refugees fleeing violence.

At one point Baccam motioned to me in the audience.

“I’m looking at Doug Burns right now, because his family looks like my family,” Baccam said during a speech to the Iowa Farmers Union in Elkhart, rural Polk County.

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Iowa absentee ballot numbers in the 2024 general election

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I will post Iowa’s latest absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, every weekday, based on figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. That office also publishes daily absentee ballot totals by county, state House district, and state Senate district.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last six election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowa’s early voting window lasted for 40 days through 2016, and was 29 days for the 2018 and 2020 elections. Only the most recent midterm also used the 20-day window currently in effect.

Also, keep in mind that this year’s early voting numbers will certainly be much lower than in 2020, when a majority of Iowans who participated cast a ballot before election day. Voting by mail skyrocketed during the last presidential election cycle, because the COVID-19 pandemic discouraged many from voting in person, and the Secretary of State’s office sent absentee ballot request forms to all registered Iowa voters. Republican legislators and Governor Kim Reynolds subsequently prohibited county auditors and the secretary of state from sending absentee ballot request forms to any voter who had not requested one.

The Secretary of State’s office now breaks down ballots received by voting method: mail, in person at a county office, in person at a satellite location, through a drop box, at a health care facility, or by email or fax (options for military or overseas voters). I’m keeping it simple with one table each day for ballots voters in each Congressional district have requested, and one table for ballots county auditors have received. After the election, I will write about how many Iowans used the various early voting options, and the partisan split for each.

In recent years, Iowa Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to cast early ballots. However, the Iowa GOP has invested in a big early voting push this year. So far, Republicans are not far behind in early ballots requested and received in the first, second, and third Congressional districts. The GOP leads in early voting in the fourth district, where the party has a massive voter registration advantage.

Remember, though: the tables below show how many Iowans of various partisan affiliations have voted early. That doesn’t mean they all voted a straight party ticket.

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Highest and lowest-rated judges on Iowa's 2024 ballot

Iowans will decide this November whether to allow one Iowa Supreme Court justice, four Iowa Court of Appeals judges, and 64 Iowa District Court judges to remain on the bench. Since our state adopted the current judicial selection system in 1962, each judge must periodically go on the ballot—every eight years for Iowa Supreme Court justices, every six years for those serving on other courts.

Iowa voters have retained almost all judges over the past six decades. But any jurist who receives more “no” than “yes” votes in November—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—will be out of a job. Governor Kim Reynolds would fill any vacancies in early 2025, after receiving a list of finalists from the State Judicial Nominating Commission or its district-level counterpart.

While some people routinely approve or reject every judge up for retention as a matter of principle, voters who want to make informed choices often find it difficult to learn anything about the judges listed on the back of the ballot.

This post highlights the appeals and district court judges who received the highest and lowest ratings in the 2024 Judicial Performance Review, the main public source of information about Iowa’s judges. I will also explain why I plan to vote against retaining a member of the Iowa Court of Appeals and a district associate judge in Polk County.

A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland article will analyze how Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided high-profile cases since Reynolds appointed him in July 2022.

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What matters most in the 2024 election

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

To illustrate problems with the news coverage of the 2024 presidential campaign, this essay begins with a comparison and ends with a contrast.

First, the comparison:

Much of the news coverage of this year’s presidential race can be likened to stewards on the Titanic arranging the deck chairs in 1912 so passengers could get a better view of icebergs.

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Fidelity to Constitution more important than policy differences

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

A family acquaintance was on Vice President Dick Cheney’s Secret Service detail during George W. Bush’s presidency. His Christmas photo one year was a portrait of him, his wife and Cheney together at a White House reception.

Back then, the agent entertained us with stories of people lining the streets as Cheney’s motorcade passed. Many greeted the vice president with their middle fingers extended.

Back then, those spectators most likely were Democrats who disagreed with Bush administration policies. Today, such roadside salutes for Cheney probably would be extended by Republicans.

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Persuasion in the time of MAGA

Jim Chrisinger is a retired public servant living in Ankeny. He served in both Republican and Democratic administrations, in Iowa and elsewhere. He also holds a law degree from the University of California, Berkeley.

Preserving American democracy and the rule of law motivates me every day. I feel compelled to reach across the divide to those in my world who, wittingly or unwittingly, would undermine or even throw these foundations of our republic overboard. So of course I want to persuade them. But I’ve learned the hard way that my preferred mode of persuasion—facts, reason, and values—very rarely works.

Then what does?

Which led me to read David McRaney’s 2022 book How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion. Here are my takeaways, first what I’ll call “Findings” and then practical “Dos and Don’ts”:

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Iowa Republicans spread FEMA lies to pit voters against migrants

As misinformation about the federal response to natural disasters hampers relief efforts in the southeast U.S., several Iowa Republicans have seized the opportunity to spread lies about the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Echoing “pants on fire” claims from former President Donald Trump, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Ashley Hinson (IA-02) have repeatedly asserted that FEMA lacks the resources needed to help those harmed by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, because it has spent too much supporting undocumented immigrants. Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst have likewise claimed Americans are being shortchanged due to FEMA’s allegedly excessive spending on migrants.

Those lies are part of a national effort by Trump supporters and the leading pro-Republican cable news network to assist Trump’s campaign. For Iowa Republicans as well, the false talking points direct voters’ attention toward immigration and border security, topics perceived to boost GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Hinson all invested in election-year messaging about immigration long before the hurricanes made landfall.

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100-year-old Dallas County Democrat has a plan to vote this year

The Dallas County Democrats (democratsfordallascounty@gmail.com) submitted this post with the permission and involvement of Gladys Julstrom and her family members.

Calvin Coolidge was president of the United States on February 17, 1924, having succeeded Warren Harding upon his sudden death while in office the summer before. On that day, Gladys Stohlgren was born in Des Moines, one of five children, to a Swedish Lutheran family. This year, she’ll vote for Kamala Harris, who would be the first woman president of the United States.

Now 100 years old, Gladys is one of six centenarians who are registered Democrats in Dallas County. She plans to cast her vote using a mailed in ballot. She is voting because she is “concerned about the worldwide situation,” she said. She votes because “I like to help people who care about the welfare of people.”

Gladys has always voted. She remembers Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson (“LBJ” is how she referred to him), when John Kennedy was assassinated, and knows Jimmy Carter just turned 100 years old too. She has volunteered on campaigns, knocking on doors and “posting envelopes.” She liked to attend events when presidential candidates visited Iowa.

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Vote with Ukraine in your heart

Jeff Fuhrman is an independent writer and international tax director. He has degrees in Russian and Law, and more than 30 years of experience working with the countries of the former Soviet Union. He lives in Cherokee with his husband and their dog Harambe. He encourages readers to listen to Sergiy Sysuev’s song “With Ukraine in My Heart” while reading this essay.

Twelve years ago, I had the privilege of taking my mother to see where her grandparents lived in Europe in the 1800s. Back then it was an untamed territory on the southern edge of the Russian Empire. After it was conquered, the Russian Emperors invited people later known as “Black Sea Germans” to populate and farm the lands. 

My mom’s family migrated from Prussia to the new lands (now part of Ukraine and Transdnestria, north of Odesa) and brought their religion and way of life with them. They farmed sunflowers, wheat, and grapes—the same crops you see today in the Dakotas, where they emigrated to, bravely, in the 1870s. St. Paul’s (Lutheran) Cathedral in Odesa is still standing.

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"The Fourth Estate"—Will we soon think that means a plot of land?

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

James Madison, a key figure in adopting our Bill of Rights and our fourth president from 1809 to 1817, seemed to foresee the Donald Trump phenomenon and the farce and looming tragedy of the 2024 election.

In 1822, Madison wrote, “A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or perhaps both. Knowledge will for ever govern ignorance: and a people who mean to be their own Governours, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.”

Journalists cite Madison’s concerns as an argument for access to government meetings and public records so a “watchdog press” can hold government accountable and also serve as “The Fourth Estate” of government.

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There's something happening in Iowa

Amy Adams currently serves as the co-chair of the Fayette County Democrats and has worked with a variety of Iowa-based grassroots organizations for the past eight years. She is a wife and mother of three living in rural northeast Iowa. 

Vice President Kamala Harris closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in Iowa isn’t just about President Joe Biden stepping aside as the Democratic nominee. Harris is a great candidate and brings energy to the race, but the change is also about the dedicated work happening at the grassroots level.

Across the state, county Democratic parties are stepping up to engage voters, and their efforts are starting to pay off.

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Turek an essential voice for middle class in statehouse, supporters say

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Council Bluffs Mayor Matt Walsh, a Republican, joined others in his party and independents to support Democratic State Representative Josh Turek, a gold medal-winning Paralympian in wheelchair basketball, at a September 26 event in this southwest Iowa city. Former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin, an Iowa icon, headlined the fundraiser for Turek, who captured his state House district by just six votes in 2022 and faces a challenging re-election bid in the November election.

Walsh said he crossed party lines for the event—and a public endorsement of a Democrat—for one reason: Turek is a respected and effective voice at the statehouse.

“While I am a registered Republican, I strongly believe the best candidate should win,” Walsh said in an interview at the Hoff Family Arts and Cultural Center. “Without a doubt in my mind that’s Josh Turek. He cares about Iowa, he cares about people with disabilities, and he cares about Council Bluffs. You can talk to Josh. Josh listens. Josh understands. Josh is responsive. He’s everything you look for in a candidate. Josh is that guy.”

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How Mariannette Miller-Meeks uses incumbency to her advantage

We often hear that Iowans like to re-elect their incumbents. But when it comes to members of the U.S. House, Iowa’s office-holders have less job security than many of their peers.

Across the country, voters have re-elected more than 90 percent of U.S. House incumbents in most elections over the past five decades. Here in Iowa, where our four districts are not gerrymandered, challengers defeated two sitting members of Congress in 2018, two in 2020 (one in the primary, one in the general election), and one in 2022.

Incumbents still enjoy inherent advantages in a Congressional campaign: higher name recognition, larger contributions from political action committees, more opportunities to generate news coverage, and an official budget that can fund outreach to constituents. But not all House members use the available tools the same way.

This post, the first in a series, will explore how Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has used her office to boost her re-election chances in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Notably, Miller-Meeks has spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on messages to constituents, with much of the spending going through her top campaign vendor. She has also built up goodwill by being one of the chamber’s most frequent floor speakers, and has used the earmark process to help fund projects in her district.

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Project 2025 policies are on November 5 ballot

Steve Corbin is emeritus professor of marketing at the University of Northern Iowa and a freelance writer who receives no remuneration, funding, or endorsement from any for-profit business, nonprofit organization, political action committee, or political party. 

It’s becoming clear the closer we get to the November 5 presidential election, voters need to seriously check out the radical government reformation policies contained within Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. Here’s why.

The right-wing think tank Heritage Foundation has written not one, not two, but nine “Mandate for Leadership” documents for Republican presidential candidates, with their first playbook published in 1981. The Heritage Foundation spent $22 million—serious money—to create Project 2025 for Donald Trump to implement.

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Nikki Haley's Iowa co-chair will vote for Kamala Harris

While hundreds of prominent Republicans around the country have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, no well-known GOP activists in Iowa had joined their ranks—until today.

Dawn Roberts, who was one of three co-chairs for Nikki Haley’s Iowa caucus campaign, announced her support for Harris in a letter first published September 20 in Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck column on Substack, and a few hours later by the Des Moines Register.

A lifelong Republican, Roberts was Polk County co-chair for then Governor Robert Ray’s campaigns and served as state co-chair for Gerald Ford’s 1976 presidential campaign. She became the first woman to lead the Polk County Republicans and was the GOP nominee for Iowa secretary of state in 1986.

Roberts wrote in her endorsement letter that she was impressed by how Harris “showed a willingness to listen to a wider range of views to solve problems.” The vice president allowed people with different political perspectives, including some Republicans, to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

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Strange bedfellows: Orwell, Feller, Trump, Grassley, and Welch

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

The anguish and angst visited upon us this election year is faithful to the old saying “Politics makes strange bedfellows.’” That take is adapted from a line in Shakespeare’s The Tempest—”Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.”

Inspired by this season of anguish and angst, this post offers dots connecting George Orwell, Bob Feller, Donald Trump, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, and Joseph Welch. You’re familiar with most of our cast. And you may recall that Welch is the attorney who grew up in Primghar, Iowa and attended Grinnell College. He gained national fame as the U.S. Army’s attorney 70 years ago, when he got fed up and asked Senator Joseph McCarthy on live television, “Have you left no sense of decency?”

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Selzer's new Iowa Poll finds a remade presidential race

Editor’s note: This post discusses Selzer’s September 2024 poll of likely Iowa voters. Her final pre-election survey, which the Des Moines Register published on November 2, showed Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent. Original post follows.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

Ann Selzer’s gold standard poll is out, and suggests a remade presidential race in Iowa.

The top line numbers from Selzer & Co’s latest poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicate former President Donald Trump has 47 percent support and Vice President Kamala Harris 43 percent among likely Iowa voters. This poll started contacting respondents on September 8 (before the debate) and concluded on September 11, the day after the debate. At the end of this piece is a summary of post-debate national polling, which has found a gain for Harris of about 1 percent.

When you compare the new survey to Selzer’s numbers from June (Trump 50 percent, President Joe Biden 32 percent in Iowa), you will find a 14 point shift in margin. But purely focusing on the margin may be a mistake.

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Trump's debate rants are no laughing matter

Henry Jay Karp is the Rabbi Emeritus of Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, which he served from 1985 to 2017. He is the co-founder and co-convener of One Human Family QCA, a social justice organization.

The night after Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump duked it out in Philadelphia, unsurprisingly, Chris Hayes dedicated his MSNBC show, “All In With Chris Hayes,” to conversations about the debate.

Rebecca Traister was among the guests who appeared on that show. While my wife Gail and I do not remember ever having heard her before (she writes for the New Yorker), after that night, we look forward to hearing more from her in the future.

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Abortion bans harm women's health and weaken the economy

William R. Staplin is a former scientist specializing in utilizing molecular biology techniques to investigate RNA plant and animal viruses, research and development of vaccines to protect against infectious viruses; husband to Ruth A. Staplin, a longtime SPPG employee and political wonk; father to two independently minded young adults; cancer and spinal cord disability survivor; and a supporter of women’s reproductive rights, LGTBQ+, and Black and Brown Lives Matter. He is also a full-time greyhound owner and greyhound cafeteria worker.

The U.S. Supreme Court dealt a devastating blow to women’s health care rights in 2022, when the conservative majority ruled in favor of Dobbs in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women Health Organization. The 5-4 decision overturned the Roe vs. Wade precedent, which since 1973 had guaranteed a woman or girl the constitutional right to an abortion. The conservative majority’s decision to allow the 50 states to regulate abortion led to a massive upheaval in women’s and girls’ basic access to health care, and in turn maternal and infant care.

Many Republican-controlled states quickly enacted abortion bans, or allowed laws from before Roe to take effect. Fourteen states (mostly in the southeastern U.S.) have total abortion bans.

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His fear divides us

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

I don’t want to be scared. I avoid roller coasters. I don’t like horror movies. I’m not a fan of people jumping out even if they’re yelling “surprise,” and I don’t pay to be scared in Halloween haunted houses.

But when I was 15, the church youth group went to a haunted house sponsored by another church. Even then, I tried to find an excuse to skip out, but it was a church event. How scary could it be?

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Iowa's 2024 ballot now worst-case scenario for Libertarians

The last few weeks could hardly have gone worse for the Libertarian Party of Iowa. Republican activists successfully forced the party’s three U.S. House candidates off the ballot, leaving Nicholas Gluba, Marco Battaglia, and Charles Aldrich to run write-in campaigns in the first, third, and fourth Congressional districts.

Meanwhile, a crowded field of presidential candidates imperils Libertarian prospects to retain major-party status in Iowa for the next election cycle.

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