Twelfth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Phil Montag is a Des Moines area activist, serves on the Iowa Unity Coalition Board of Directors, and is one of the founders of Veishea Analytics.

Every election cycle produces a wealth of public data, from polling station statistics to voter turnout figures, campaign fundraising and spending data, absentee ballot requests, and audited results. This data exists not just for politicians and media outlets, but for the public as well. It provides transparency, accountability, and evidence-based debunking of misinformation that is prevalent today. With this analysis of the 2024 Iowa State House races, we are hoping to present the data in a new way that will be easy for everyday voters to understand.

In the Iowa State House races that concluded a few weeks ago, the Republican Party of Iowa was able to campaign with a serious cash advantage, although Democrats had much more success at promoting absentee ballot requests and turning out early votes.

The combined fundraising totals for Republican candidates running for the Iowa House was a little more than $12 million. For Democrats it was $6.7 million. Those totals represent what was donated to campaigns directly as well as in-kind contributions that other organizations spent on their behalf. The fundraising graphs enclosed below represent only what was raised in 2023 and 2024. Incumbent candidates whose campaigns started 2023 with cash on hand may have spent more.

State Auditor Rob Sand has urged members of the Iowa Democratic Party’s governing body to give Rita Hart another term as state chair. In a January 1 message to State Central Committee members (enclosed in full below), Sand credited Hart with getting the party out of debt and raising enough money to fund full-time communications, finance, and data staff.

He also asserted that Iowa was “more GOP than the rest of the country in 2022, then more Dem than the rest of the country in 2024.” I believe he meant to say that the swing toward Donald Trump in Iowa was (slightly) less than the national swing toward Trump this year. Iowa’s voting patterns are clearly not “more Dem” than the U.S. as a whole; the president-elect won the popular vote by about 1.5 points nationally but by 13.2 points in Iowa.

Sand pushed back against what he called “inaccurate info about the party’s performance” and Hart. In particular, he defended the party’s decision to send fewer absentee ballot request forms to voters this year than in past election cycles, saying Republican-backed changes to Iowa law made it more risky to push voting by mail and wiser to invest in other programs.

He appeared to be referring to a recent Substack post by Robert Leonard, which faulted the Iowa Democratic Party for “lost opportunities” during the 2024 election cycle. Leonard wrote, “One Democratic legislator tells me that normally Iowa Democrats send out approximately 250,000 absentee ballot request forms and this year only 40,000 were sent.” It’s important to remember that the state party was not the only entity pushing early GOTV. For example, the Polk County Democrats distributed an estimated 190,000 absentee ballot request forms to around 95,000 households in late August and early September.

Sand asked members of the governing body to unite behind Hart and her “Forward Victory: 2026” plan, saying it would be “positive change for the IDP” to keep a chair for more than one term. Since Michael Kiernan stepped down for health reasons in 2010, nine people have led the party: Sue Dvorsky, Tyler Olson, Scott Brennan, Andy McGuire, Derek Eadon, Troy Price, Mark Smith, Ross Wilburn, and Hart.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will meet on January 4 to elect a new chair. Three candidates are expected to be nominated: Hart, Tim Winter, and Alexandra Nickolas-Dermody. Dexter Merschbrock announced in December that he was seeking the position but endorsed Nickolas-Dermody this week.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Winter and one for Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

As each new year begins, I enjoy looking back at the posts that resonated most strongly with readers in the year that ended. Some things never change: actions by the Republican-controlled state legislature and Governor Kim Reynolds—especially attacks on public education—inspired many of Bleeding Heartland’s most-viewed posts from 2024. That’s been true every year since the GOP trifecta began in 2017. U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, who featured prominently in two of last year’s most popular posts, makes another appearance below.

I’ve learned there is no way to predict which pieces will take off. Some of the posts linked below required intensive research and days of writing, while others took only a few hours from start to finish. One was among the longest I wrote last year (more than 5,000 words), while another was among the shortest (fewer than 300 words).

Some authors whose work gained a large following in past years made the list again. But three authors featured below were contributing to Bleeding Heartland for the first time.

This list draws from Fathom Analytics data about total views for 561 posts published from January 1 through December 31, 2024. I wrote 145 of those articles and commentaries; other authors wrote 416. I left out the site’s front page and the “about” page, where many people landed following online searches.

A half-dozen posts barely missed the top 24, by a few hundred views or less:

Bleeding Heartland set yet another record for guest contributions in 2024, with 416 posts involving 146 authors. (The previous record was 358 posts that more than 125 people wrote for this site in 2023.) I don’t know of any state-based political website that provides more quality coverage and commentary by guest contributors.

This year’s guest authors covered a wide range of topics, from public schools to local government, major employers, CO2 pipelines, notable events in Iowa history, and of course wildflowers.

They wrote about President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, Governor Kim Reynolds and her administration, Attorney General Brenna Bird, and of course former and future President Donald Trump.

During the legislative session, guest authors highlighted flaws in the governor’s plan to overhaul Area Education Agencies and the report that sought to justify it. They shared their own personal or professional experiences with AEAs. They covered other education proposals and explained why the state’s official school voucher numbers were misleading. They also covered bills that received less attention but could change many Iowans’ lives for better or worse.

During the 2024 campaign and its aftermath, guest authors wrote about presidential polling in Iowa and nationally, profiled candidates, and analyzed the election results from several angles.

Guest authors sounded the alarm about Iowa’s near-total abortion ban, unlawful drug testing at hospitals, and climate change impacts. They suggested ways to protect water and air quality, and flagged transparency problems in state and local government. They reviewed books that would interest many Bleeding Heartland readers.

They reflected on the lives of those who passed away this year, including Iowans Marcia Nichols, Bobby Washington, and Jim Leach, as well as Tim Kraft, who played an important role on some Iowa campaigns.

While many guest authors criticized Republican policies and politicians, some offered advice or constructive criticism to Democrats following the Iowa caucuses and another disappointing general election.

As noted below, some contributions by guest authors were among the most-viewed Bleeding Heartland posts of the year.

Tim Winter recently resigned from the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee after being elected three times to serve on that body. Last year he chaired the State Arrangements Committee, the SCC Small Dollar Donor Work Group, and ProIowa 24. He is the former chair of the Boone County Democrats. Born and raised in southwest Minnesota, he is a farm kid whose family was originally from heritage farm outside Boyden, Iowa. He earned a BS degree in Agricultural Business and Agronomy from Iowa State University. He has worked as an executive for several large agribusiness companies and now owns and operates a landscaping business and specialty crop farm. 

Editor’s note from Laura Belin: The State Central Committee will meet in Ankeny on January 4 to elect an Iowa Democratic Party chair for the next four years. Tim Winter emailed the following action plan members of the party’s governing body on December 31 and shared the text with Bleeding Heartland. As with Rita Hart’s plan, I have not edited the text in any way. All words in bold or underlined were that way in the original document. You can download Tim Winter’s plan as a pdf here.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Winter and one for Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

Happy New Year’s Eve to you and your family.  Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) Chair.  Along with this announcement, I have included my paper on What is happening in the Iowa Democratic Party.  

The proposals I have read from those who are interested in running and are running, all have one big thing in common.  Iowa Democrats are losing badly and the SCC must be reorganized.  They believe the SCC must be decreased in size.  Your power, involvement and representation are to be taken away and then centralize the power with staff.  They all state that we need a field organizing force, however, few ideas are given to help implement this or they drop the responsibilities on an overworked staffer.

My plan is different.  We don’t decrease the strength of the SCC.  We change the roles so members have more responsibility and potency, dramatically increase our volunteer force and rebuild our County Party Organizational System.  We concentrate on organizing activities in the field!

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will meet in Ankeny on January 4 to elect a state chair for the next four years. Rita Hart, who has served in that role since early 2023, is seeking another term. She emailed the following action plan (“Forward: Victory 2026”) to State Central Committee members on December 23. The Iowa Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus shared the document on Facebook on December 30.

Bleeding Heartland has not edited the text in any way, other than to move two sentences from a footnote to square brackets alongside the relevant phrase (for formatting reasons). All words in bold or italics were that way in the original document. You can download Rita Hart’s plan as a pdf here.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Tim Winter and one for Alexandra Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

Dear SCC members, Leaders, and fellow Democrats,

The 2023-2024 election cycle for IDP combined two ideas that are hard to hold at the same time. First, I am proud of the work our team has done to rebuild IDP as an institution. When I was elected, IDP had laid off all but 2.5 staffers. We did not have full-time Finance, Communications, or Data staff. We were $100k in debt. Over the last two years, despite challenges including a hostile DNC, a complete turnover in staff, and a cancer diagnosis, we have stabilized IDP and built a team that can execute an off-year plan starting in January 2025.

However, it clearly was not enough and we have a great deal more work to do. Two years ago, I wrote to you: “…serving as IDP Chair has never been an ambition of mine, but I care deeply about the success of Iowa Democrats. As a teacher, a farmer, a state senator, LG and congressional candidate, I have seen time and time again how the policies our leaders implement affect every day Iowans. My focus is squarely on helping our party begin winning elections again.” It is cold comfort that Iowa swung to the right less than the rest of the country (6 points nationally vs. 5 in Iowa) or that Christina Bohannan had one of the strongest overperformances in the country. We need to win.

Jack Hatch, Joe Enriquez Henry, Peggy Huppert, Anne Kinzel, and Ralph Rosenberg sent the message enclosed below to members of the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee on December 18.

Hatch is a business owner and builder of low income housing, a former state senator, and was the Iowa Democratic nominee for governor in 2014. Joe Enriquez Henry is a community and Latino activist, and chair of the Southside Democrats in Des Moines. Peggy Huppert has been a Democratic activist for 42 years and has served as Polk County co-chair and a nonprofit executive staffer. Anne Kinzel is a policy specialist, former lawyer, and Democratic activist. Ralph Rosenberg is a former state senator, lawyer, former director of the Youth Law Center, co-founder Iowa Environmental Council and former director of the Iowa Civil Rights Commission.

To Members of the IDP State Central Committee, 

We all know this was a bad year for Democrats. Elections are about winning; winners get to make policy and law. Iowa Democrats — leaders and rank and file alike — have failed in this truism.

For Iowans, the results have been devastating. For activists and everyone associated with our party, the result is demoralizing, with a loss of power and influence. If we believe that our Democratic Party values can improve the lives of Iowans now and for decades to come, we must question what our Party and our Legislative Caucuses are currently doing. We need to first make the necessary structural changes to allow Democrats to challenge the Republicans. Anything less will keep us where we are, politically irrelevant and failing Iowans.  

Henry Jay Karp is the Rabbi Emeritus of Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, which he served from 1985 to 2017. He is the co-founder and co-convener of One Human Family QCA, a social justice organization. This essay first appeared on his Substack column.

Shortly after the recent election, Democratic State Representative Ken Croken, one of the members of the Quad Cities delegation to the Iowa legislature, hosted a meeting at a local library. The theme was, “Where Do We Go From Here?”

The room was packed. It was booked for an hour, but for the first half hour those in attendance were obsessed with the question of “Where did the Democrats go so wrong?” Every speaker had his or her view on why Democratic candidates failed so miserably, both nationally and in Iowa.

It was interesting, to a point. It allowed people to grieve and vent their anger, but it wasn’t very useful and it definitely was off topic. Finally, I raised my hand in frustration and said, “We’re talking about the wrong thing! It will be two years before we can effect change through the voting booth! But it will only be two months before January 20 and day one of the Trump presidency! Right now we have bigger fish to fry and not a lot of time to get cooking!”

Iowa is projected to maintain four U.S. House districts after 2030, according to population estimates the U.S. Census Bureau released on December 19. If that pans out, it would be our state’s longest stretch without losing a Congressional district in 100 years.

Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, posted a map on social media on December 19, showing how reapportionment would affect each state. Iowa is among 36 states that would neither gain nor lose any U.S. House districts after the 2030 census, if population trends from the past two years hold. Three neighboring states—Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—are each expected to lose one seat, in line with a decades-long trend of relatively slower population growth in the Midwest and Northeast, compared to the South and West.

President-elect Donald Trump followed through this week with his threat to sue pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent.

Many others have pointed out that Trump’s lawsuit is part of his broader “revenge tour” and “war on journalism.” In Greg Sargent’s words, the case is “putting people in the media and polling on notice that they will face real legal harassment if they anger or criticize Trump.” The president-elect admitted during a December 16 press conference that he will use lawsuits to influence news coverage: “I think you have to do it, because they’re very dishonest. We need a great media, we need a fair media.”

This post will focus on the legal, factual, and logical problems with the court filing.

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

The autopsy

Belatedly, I listened to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast released on November 28. I say “belatedly” because, since the election, a new “breaking news” story surfaces every day, usually one more shocking than the day before. It has been doubly true in the week since Thanksgiving. 

News not available to the Down Ballot panelists at the time of their forum is the full lineup of nominees President-elect Donald Trump has chosen for his cabinet. It is each day’s big news story. Matt Gaetz (“a” before “e” except after “c”) is already old news, and Fox News host Pete Hegseth (I hope I never have to learn to spell or pronounce that name) seems to be the worst of the bad boys.

The House Majority PAC, one of the biggest spenders supporting Democrats in U.S. House races, has confirmed Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts are among its “top targets” for the 2026 election cycle.

The PAC also put IA-02 on a list of sixteen House districts that “could become competitive” in 2026.

Channing Dutton is a lawyer in Urbandale. His duty is climate action for all children.

When it comes to the biggest political blunder of the 21st century, no mistake by the Republicans compares to the colossal fumble the Democrats have made on climate change. We saw it on Black Friday during the Hawks football game with my beloved Huskers: a tied score, the clock ticking down, and the ball bouncing on the turf. Do you remember? That was a fumble of opportunity. 

The same has been true during the past several election cycles where the Democrats seem unable to make the play that wins the game. I think of it as the Climate Change fumble.

UPDATE: Smith fleshed out his message against the incumbent in a digital ad launched on December 31. Original post follows.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.

Eleventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Many factors helped Iowa Republicans expand their already large state legislative majorities in 2024. Two of the most important were Donald Trump’s dominance in the presidential race, and the continued decline in ticket-splitting.

By my calculations, Trump carried 71 of the 100 Iowa House districts, up from 63 state House districts the last time he was on the ballot in 2020. In all four Democratic-held House districts that flipped this year, voters preferred Trump. That helped Republican Ryan Weldon defeat State Representative Molly Buck in House district 41 (Ankeny), David Blom defeat Sue Cahill in House district 52 (Marshalltown), Jennifer Smith defeat Chuck Isenhart in House district 72 (Dubuque), and Christian Hermanson win the open House district 59 (Mason City).

Trump also carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot, including both where Democratic incumbents lost: Mike Pike defeated Nate Boulton in Senate district 20 (eastern Polk County), and Dave Sires defeated Eric Giddens in Senate district 38 (mostly located in Black Hawk County). The only Iowa GOP lawmaker to lose in 2024, State Senator Brad Zaun, faced Matt Blake in a district where voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.

Ticket-splitting used to be more common in Iowa. Republicans maintained control of the state House in 2012, even as Barack Obama carried 61 of the 100 districts that year. (No wonder few observers expected Iowa’s hard shift to the right, beginning in 2016.)

But in 2020 and again this year, only seven Iowa legislators managed to win in districts where voters preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

I calculated the 2024 numbers using certified precinct-level vote totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s election results website. Figures on the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the Iowa House and Iowa Senate maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

This post covers the six Iowa House members and one state senator in descending order, by how much they outperformed the top of their own party’s ticket.

Jason Benell lives in Des Moines with his wife and two children. He is a combat veteran, former city council candidate, and president of Iowa Atheists and Freethinkers. He first published this essay on his Substack newsletter, The Odd Man Out.

A common refrain, particularly in centrist-to-liberal spaces, is that in order to make any kind of progress or reach consensus, we must always be conciliatory and tread lightly when discussing topics with folks who oppose the prevailing Democratic viewpoint.

The post-election analysis of 2016 was a good example of this, when “economic anxiety” became a stand-in for folks who were just uninformed on the issues. We saw it again in 2020 with folks being “skeptical of COVID” instead of simply uninformed.

Already, we are seeing it again—but notably, a lot less—in the aftermath of the 2024 election. We hear folks were “worried about the economy” despite, once again, folks just being uninformed.

Porter McNeil, an Illinois-based communications consultant, was Illinois Communications Director for the Kerry-Edwards’ presidential campaign. He assisted with the 2021 “factory town” report (American Family Voices & 21^st Century Democrats) and was re-elected in 2024 to a seat on the Rock Island County Board.

In August 2000, fresh from the Democratic National Convention, Al Gore and Joe Lieberman flew overnight from Los Angeles to begin a four-day Mark Twain-style boat ride on the Mississippi River. 

Their “Setting Course for America’s Future” trip charted a political path across the sand bars of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri and critical blue-collar swing counties. That trip represents one of the Democratic Party’s top challenges in 2026 and 2028. The path to 270 and a congressional majority in Congress runs through rural regions and working-class factory towns across the Midwest.

Steve Corbin is emeritus professor of marketing at the University of Northern Iowa and a freelance writer who receives no remuneration, funding, or endorsement from any for-profit business, nonprofit organization, political action committee, or political party. 

Donald Trump received nearly 2.3 million more votes than Kamala Harris and captured 312 electoral college votes to become America’s 47^th president. Compared to Trump’s performance in 2016 and 2020, the Republican improved his vote share in virtually all demographic categories, including women.

On November 6, I reached out to women across America, from both political parties, and asked them to react to the election results in two sentences or less. Thirty-six women, from 24 states, replied to my inquiry. The response was so large that this column boomeranged from an intended singular op-ed to a three-part series. (Editor’s note: Bleeding Heartland is publishing all three parts below.)

Ninth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

With the 2024 election results finalized following the December 2 meeting of the State Board of Canvass, we know the basics about Iowa’s general election turnout.

More information about voter participation by age group, gender, and party affiliation will be available when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report in January 2025.

A few takeaways for now:

Seventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Republicans will hold 35 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats when the legislature reconvenes in 2025, a net gain of one from the 34-16 GOP majority of the past two years. The results were finalized on November 22 and November 25 following recounts in two close races.

According to the legislature’s official website, the fifteen-member Democratic caucus will be the smallest contingent for the party in the Iowa Senate since the early 1960s. Maintaining a two-thirds majority means Republicans will be able to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any Democratic support.

Redistricting played a role in all three districts where party control changed. The demise of ticket-splitting was also apparent, as three incumbents lost in areas where their constituents preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

Ann Selzer is stepping back from polling elections after conducting the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register for the last 27 years, she announced on November 17.

Top Iowa Republicans reacted by accusing Selzer of “skewing” her numbers or publishing “fake news polling”—all because her final Iowa Poll was way off the mark.

The attacks on Selzer—not from MAGA randos, but from the heart of the GOP establishment—reflect a broader Republican strategy to discredit mainstream media outlets like the Des Moines Register. They also validate unhinged behavior like President-elect Donald Trump’s call for Selzer to be criminally investigated.

Sixth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

The 2024 elections could hardly have gone worse for Iowa Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 13 points—a larger margin than Ronald Reagan managed here in either of his campaigns, and the largest winning margin for any presidential candidate in Iowa since Richard Nixon in 1972. The GOP swept the Congressional races for the second straight cycle and expanded their lopsided majorities in the legislature.

Support for Democrats has eroded in Iowa communities of all sizes—from large metro areas like Scott County (which voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1984) to rural counties that were always red, but now routinely deliver more than 70 percent of the vote to GOP candidates.

This post highlights the growing problem for Democrats in Iowa’s mid-sized cities. I focus on eleven counties where Democratic candidates performed well in the recent past, but now trail Republicans in state and federal races.

Changing political trends in mid-sized cities explain why Democrats will have smaller contingents in the Iowa House and Senate than at any time since 1970. Voters in six of these counties also saved U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from a strong challenge by Democrat Christina Bohannan in the first Congressional district.

Tom Walton is an attorney in Dallas County.

An analysis of any political defeat must start with the message—what did you say to voters about why they should vote for you, and how did you say it? When you’re shut out of every branch of government, the only thing you have left is your message.

When commentators have focused on the Democratic losing message in 2024, they criticized many things, including “performative ‘wokeness’—the in-group messaging used by hyper-online and overeducated progressives” and “the stale politics of identity.” Too much about abortion—not enough about how hard it was for folks to just get by.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

I read the op-ed Bob Vander Plaats wrote for the Des Moines Register last week. It’s glowingly referenced on the Facebook page of his organization, The FAMiLY Leader.

I remember Vander Plaats when he got his knickers in a twist because the Iowa Supreme Court decided the Iowa Constitution’s equal protection clause applied to gay and lesbian people. The court unanimously held in the Varnum v. Brien decision from 2009 that Iowa’s “Defense of Marriage Act” was unconstitutional. The ruling paved the way for same-sex couples to solemnize their relationships under Iowa’s marriage laws.

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

Bill Bumgarner is a retired former health care executive from northwest Iowa who worked
in hospital management for 41 years, predominantly in the state of Iowa.

The American people have decided to entrust Donald Trump with their present and their future for the next four years.

That’s how elections work. That’s democracy.

Voters have empowered the president-elect to seek whatever policy objectives he chooses to pursue. Americans should support Trump when his policies make sense. We should oppose him vigorously when his intent is not consistent with our values.

That’s democracy, too.

Jason Benell lives in Des Moines with his wife and two children. He is a combat veteran, former city council candidate, and president of Iowa Atheists and Freethinkers.

The results of the 2024 elections are in and the dust is settling—quite a bit faster than we expected it to—and we as citizens have a lot to consider about what it means to be in the United States of America.

This must be a reckoning of what we are dealing with as a purported democratic people that enjoy equal protections under the law and unprecedented personal liberties. This must be a reckoning of what and who we are as a people.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

The corpse of the losing presidential campaign isn’t cold, and they’re sharpening knives for the autopsy. As always, according to the know-it-all people the losing campaign was rife with mistakes, missteps, and was generally inept. The winning campaign was flawless, brilliant, and ordained by God. If you don’t believe me, open Facebook and you’ll see it.

I don’t have the expertise or stomach for a full autopsy. I’ll leave that to professional political pundits. I do have a couple of observations about the 2024 campaign, though.

Jack Hatch is a retired state senator and was the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor.

As a well-used phrase suggests, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.”

Our Democratic message was strong, and our attention to our deeply held values of equality, inclusion, and freedom was spot-on. But in Iowa, our organizational structure is off base.  

We lost seats in the Iowa House and Senate and lost two very close races for Congress. Without a strong party organization that represents our coalition, Democrats will continue to lose. This is not a reflection on our party leaders, as much as, it is a reflection of the organization at all levels. We can’t move voters if we don’t engage in a conversation, and we must reach out to them.

Third in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

Donald Trump’s mastery of Iowa in the 2024 election is no more apparent than his performance in a batch of counties that border the Mississippi River.

For the last eight years, this region has been clearly in Trump’s corner. But it shifted even more decisively in his favor Tuesday.

Trump won these ten counties by more than 34,000 votes, according to unofficial results.

There were still a small number of ballots to be counted, but Trump’s victory in this region approached Barack Obama’s historic wins in 2012, at least in numeric terms. And, compared to four years ago, Trump won this stretch of Iowa by more than double the number of votes than he did against Joe Biden.

Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

The successful Republican effort to knock Libertarians off the ballot in three U.S. House districts may have influenced the outcome in at least one of them.

All three affected Libertarian candidates—Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth—indicated that they would continue to run as write-in candidates. Unofficial results show write-in votes for Iowa’s four U.S. House races this year totaled 3,616—about 0.23 percent of the 1,602,409 ballots cast for a Congressional candidate.

When Libertarian candidates have been on the ballot for recent Iowa Congressional elections, they have typically received 2-3 percent of the vote.

AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST DISTRICT

In IA-01, unofficial results show Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by 796 votes (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent). Bohannan has not conceded, and the race has not been called. But it’s unlikely that enough provisional ballots remain to be counted for her to overtake Miller-Meeks. Iowa no longer counts absentee ballots that arrive after election day.

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

This post has been updated with the unofficial results from each race. Original post follows.

Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

Arnold Garson is a semi-retired journalist and executive who worked for 46 years in the newspaper industry, including almost 20 years at The Des Moines Register. He writes the Substack newsletter Second Thoughts, where this article first appeared.

Presidential endorsements in American newspapers had a good run—more than 150 years—and America is the better for it.

Their disappearance, beginning five to ten years ago and mushrooming this year, has been a product of changing times for newspapers and newspaper ownership, and the increasing divisiveness in our society. Though explainable, it is sad and unfortunate. 

It is worth remembering that newspapers got into the endorsement business because the owners and editors knew an informed electorate would be advantageous to the country as well as the newspaper industry.  

DSM Lawyer is an attorney in central Iowa.

When will we stop politicizing the judiciary? I practice in Polk County District Court Associate Judge Rachael Seymour’s courtroom all the time and have thoughts about why she received low marks in the Iowa State Bar Association’s judicial performance review.

Yes, hearings in her courtroom tend not to run on time, and she can take a long time to issue a written ruling. Why? Because she’s extremely thorough when we’re in court, and she gives a complete verbal ruling while you’re there. She wants to have all the possible information before making decisions that affect families, and she takes time to review all of the written evidence as well as review her notes prior to finalizing the written ruling.

Even the Iowa Court of Appeals recently noted the thoroughness of one of her rulings. This is a good thing, because it ensures everyone has all the same information rather than relying on our own individual recollections of what happened. I generally find that if I just pad my own schedule a little there’s no issue.

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

Out of desperation, as a fearful election day looms, let’s grasp at some straws to try to make sense of what we’ve been through and, even worse, what might be ahead.

For example, some political campaigns have had musical themes.

Few, if any Bleeding Heartland readers were around in 1932 to sing along with “Happy Days Are Here Again,” the theme of Franklin’s D. Roosevelt’s anti-Depression campaign against President Herbert Hoover.

More of us may recall Marilyn Maye’s catchy version of “Step to the Rear (and Let a Winner Lead the Way)” sung on behalf of Governor Robert D. Ray. (Warning: Before listening to Ms Maye, be prepared for tears if you are subject to emotional responses in recalling the more congenial, bipartisan days of the Ray administrations, when Democrats generally accepted letting Ray “lead the way.”)

Sami Scheetz represents Iowa House district 78, covering part of Cedar Rapids.

When we brought our daughter home from the hospital a few months ago, and I watched our baby swaddled in her bassinet, sleeping peacefully, I couldn’t help but think about the future my wife and I are building for her. Now, with the November 5 election a few days away, I wonder: What kind of place will Iowa be for families today and for generations to come?

When my daughter grows up, will she find an Iowa that is as inclusive, welcoming, and safe as the one I inherited—or will she find an Iowa neither of us recognize, a place where people feel they have little in common with their government, and their voices are not heard?

Andy Johnson works in the locally-owned clean energy transition, and farms with his wife and three daughters in rural Winneshiek County, northeast Iowa.

Is Kamala Harris angry? I sure as hell hope so, and I wish she’d say so.

The angry American right does its darnedest to paint her as an angry Black woman. This angry white male Iowa farmer wishes she’d get mad, in a good way.

Here is what I imagine she might say.

“Fellow Americans, I’m angry!

“I’m angry that so many of us blindly picture our two candidates for national leadership as either an angry white man or an angry black woman. We’re better than that.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

In November of last year, I asked, “Are Republicans really gaining among Black voters?” Since then, political reporters have written article after article on the subject. A New York Times story about a recent poll declared, “Black voters drift from Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid.” This week, Newsweek wrote about a different poll using the headline, “Donald Trump sees surge in support among Black Virginia Voters.”

Before I get the data, I want to make a serious point. These stories insulate Trump from the plain meaning of his language. See, he tells his supporters, I am not a racist: Black people are voting for me. So, while this question may seem like something only data nerds should care about, media coverage of the African-American vote has very real consequences for the political conversation in this country.