Barbara Leach, president of My Rural America Action Fund, is a former Iowa farm owner and manager. -promoted by Laura Belin

Much is frightfully wrong in rural America, and 80 percent of Iowa’s counties are right in the thick of it. An unsold crop awaits sale. Sales await the repair of President Donald Trump’s broken trade agreements. Bankers await payments. The flood compounds the troubles.

These troubles affect our economy, consumer food prices, and contribute to the kind of international unrest that is driven by hunger and too often results in military action.

The upcoming Heartland Rural Forum scheduled for March 30 in Storm Lake offers Iowans the chance to kick off a national debate about what could be done to support our fragile family farm economy and our nation’s agricultural sector. Five Democratic presidential candidates (maybe more?) will attend, and there is much for them to talk about.

Although Montana Governor Steve Bullock has not yet declared plans to run for president, a group supporting his ambitions has been polling Iowa Democrats to test positive messages about Bullock and several other declared or likely contenders.

I’ve long encouraged readers to record or take notes on political surveys. This post draws on a recording an Iowan provided after receiving the call on the evening of March 7. (Bleeding Heartland never provides identifying information about respondents; I’m only interested in the questions asked.)

The latest Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom found Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders well ahead of the rest of the Democratic field in Iowa, with 27 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Bullock was among several candidates at 1 percent. Later today, Bleeding Heartland will publish analysis by Dan Guild, taking a historical view of polling this far out from the Iowa caucuses.

Ira Lacher: “America doesn’t dream big anymore. Even before the ascension of Donald J. Trump, or the Tea Party, or the Contract with America, we set our sights ridiculously low, the way we do when driving in fog.” -promoted by Laura Belin

Saw the new Apollo 11 documentary Saturday night. And I noticed two things immediately: how so many people were fascinated by an event that took place half a century ago . . . and how many of them were young people. It wasn’t just nostalgia that drove a crowd to a movie theater on an awful weather day.

Gary Kroeger, who endorsed Bernie Sanders before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, challenges some conventional wisdom in progressive Democratic circles. -promoted by Laura Belin

“We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it and stop there lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove lid again and that is well but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.”

I use that Mark Twain quote quite often. The “wisdom” is what is necessary if we are to extract the truth from an event, but that wisdom is often hard to find. I thought of this as former Vice President Joe Biden was dismissed the other day in a CNN focus group of Democrats.

Julie Stauch shares her thoughts on presidential candidate John Delaney’s “very readable book.” Bleeding Heartland welcomes reviews of memoirs by politicians or books on any political topic of statewide or national importance. -promoted by Laura Belin

I have this rule with myself that if someone gives me a book, I always read the first chapter out of appreciation and respect for the person who shared it. In January I was invited to attend a luncheon for women hosted by April McLain Delaney, where they gave each attendee a copy of John Delaney’s book. I started reading it that day, and by the end of the week had finished the book. This is my review.

Ira Lacher reflects on the stakes for presidential candidates, nearly a year before the Iowa caucuses. -promoted by Laura Belin

“It gets late early out here.”

Yogi Berra is credited with that observation about the final month of the baseball season, when the lower-in-the-sky sun of early fall casts longer shadows over more of the field.

Managers will tell you a win in April is just as important as a win in September. But when you don’t win in September, you have fewer opportunities to make up those losses.

Heading into March, there are about eleven months to go before Iowans tell the world why so-and-so should be the Democrat to oppose Donald J. Trump. Eleven months may seem like a long time. There are unanticipated world and national events to come, revelations to be made, gaffes to occur.

Dan Guild reviews past polling data for clues on how Democratic voters will pick a favorite presidential contender. -promoted by Laura Belin

“I am for him/her because they can win”. I have been active in New Hampshire and Iowa presidential primary politics for over 30 years. In that time I have found if you ask someone why they are for a candidate, likely as not they will say “because they can win.” The press mirrors this and will write often about which contender is “electable”.

I am skeptical electability is ever decisive.

Ira Lacher comments on signs of growing youth activism: “The revolution will not be televised. But it may be streamed, Instagrammed and tweeted.” -promoted by Laura Belin

“The revolution will not be televised,” Gil Scott-Heron wrote in an iconic 1970 anthem that many of us digested over and over while we considered what should happen with America.

My generation marched to end the Vietnam War and police brutality, advance the Equal Rights Amendment and other “socialist” causes. We said we want a revolution, but well, you know, there were the needs of getting jobs, starting families, buying homes, putting children through college. The ideals of revolution transmogrified into the reality of Reaganomics, fear of being blown up by terrorists and the creaks of advancing age.

But if recent events in New York City are an indication, the revolution may be stirring once again.

As Iowa Republicans look for a candidate who could win back the third Congressional district, the Des Moines rumor mill has focused on several state lawmakers from Polk County. One of them, State Senator Zach Nunn, says he is getting a lot of encouragement and is not ruling the race out.

Longtime Democratic campaign staffer and candidate consultant Julie Stauch follows up on her last commentary about qualities she’s seeking in a presidential contender. -promoted by Laura Belin

Friends who live in other states have asked me, “How do you decide who to support for president in a crowded caucus (primary) field?” The answer is often, “It depends upon the year.” In a year like 2020, we’re seeing a diverse, talent-laden field of candidates. Here’s part of how I narrow the crowded field.

Alexandra Rucinski mocks efforts to take down presidential candidates who aren’t good enough for “brogressives.” -promoted by Laura Belin

Thank you for taking the time to read our letter posted by the Gaslight Gazette. Our movement, we feel, is deeply misunderstood.

We have been slandered for trying to warn this nation about the very great threat of representative politics.

Ira Lacher: The 2020 election will belong to the most popular, the rock star, the candidate who can best energize a crowd, make them believe. -promoted by Laura Belin

If you read Gary Hart’s op-ed in Sunday’s Des Moines Register, the best president is someone who is mature, well-seasoned and experienced. “The newest, the cutest, the funniest, the quickest wit is interesting but irrelevant,” he writes, in a not-so-offhanded dis of rock star candidates such as U.S. Senator Cory Booker, who spoke Saturday to a mostly young, SRO crowd packed into Des Moines’ Kum and Go Theater.

Some Republicans have encouraged State Representative Jon Jacobsen to run for Congress in Iowa’s third district, and he’s not ruling it out, though he will not decide anytime soon.

Every election, a handful of Iowa legislative races turn out to be far closer than expected. One of the sleepers in 2018 was Steve Gorman’s rematch against Republican State Representative Mary Ann Hanusa in House district 16, covering part of Council Bluffs.

Hanusa was a four-term incumbent and had defeated Gorman by 6,847 votes to 5,120 (57.2 percent to 42.8 percent) in 2016. Last year, Republicans spent about $83,000 on direct mail, radio, and digital advertising for Hanusa (see here and here), far less than they spent in districts they worried about losing. By the same token, Democrats spent at least $100,000 in more than a dozen Iowa House races during the 2018 campaign, including $128,000 defending the other Council Bluffs-based seat. Gorman had to raise all of the $24,405.45 the party spent on his behalf.

Nevertheless, Gorman nearly pulled off an upset, losing to Hanusa by 4,949 votes to 4,835 (49.5 percent to 48.4 percent), with 208 votes going to Libertarian Steve Sechrest. Now Gorman’s the first announced Democratic candidate for a Republican-held Iowa Senate seat. Both parties will surely take his challenge seriously in 2020.

Bleeding Heartland welcomes first-person accounts of campaign events. Today Ira Lacher reports from a meet-and-greet with newly-declared presidential candidate Marianne Williamson. -promoted by Laura Belin

Marianne Williamson commands a room with the acumen of a megachurch preacher. The guests at her meet-and-greet February 1, many of whom admitted to being Williamson fans long before she declared her intention to seek the Democratic presidential nomination, were ready to give witness.

“We have a 40-year record of an economic monstrosity that has affected the sinews of our civilization,” she told a room full of about 50 Des Moines residents who gathered to hear the woman described as “Oprah’s spiritual guru” explain why she was running.

Alexandra Rucinski is a proud Democratic activist in southeast Iowa, a mother, and a feminist writer. -promoted by Laura Belin

There’s an image I vividly remember seeing shared on Facebook in 2016: a drawing of Bernie Sanders cheerfully leading his revolution down a path. On the side, Hillary Clinton is hoisted up on a golden throne with a crown on her head. Her arms are crossed; she’s annoyed they are in the way of what is clearly her coronation, the anointed one.

At the time, I didn’t see the offensive, sexist nature of the image. But times have changed, and I’m a much different woman than I was then.

Ira Lacher: “If a major party candidate can’t rally registered voters around its candidate, it’s not the voters — it’s the party.” -promoted by Laura Belin

Michael Bloomberg is “actively weighing a president run,” according to The New York Times, and liberal Democrats are having a shit fit.

That’s because the former mayor of New York City, who changed his party from Republican to Democrat in 2018, describes himself as pro-business, anti-recreational pot and pro-stop-and-frisk. He doesn’t want to break up Wall Street, as Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for. He’s also expressed skepticism about some media reports of sexual harassment.

I encourage activists to take notes on political surveys and share what they’ve heard. Bleeding Heartland user corncam did a great job. -promoted by Laura Belin

We can add one more name to the list of presidential candidates who may compete in the 2020 Iowa caucuses: former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe. I completed a phone survey on January 14 that was ostensibly neutral, but I’m pretty sure it was sponsored by McAuliffe. I’ll tell you why below.

Nine-term U.S. Representative Steve King will face at least one challenger in the 2020 Republican primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

State Senator Randy Feenstra announced his candidacy today, and Story County Supervisor Rick Sanders confirmed to Bleeding Heartland that he is seriously considering the race.

The moves are the clearest sign yet that Iowa’s GOP establishment is tired of King.

Thoughts from longtime Democratic campaign hand Julie Stauch, who hasn’t settled on a 2020 candidate yet. Senator Elizabeth Warren will make her first trip to Iowa as a possible presidential contender this weekend, and others in the field will visit many times. -promoted by Laura Belin

Dear Senators, Governors, U.S. Representatives, Mayors, Authors, Celebrities, and anyone else seriously considering a run for the job of President of the United States,

First, let me thank you for considering a run. It is a daunting task and just looking at running seriously takes courage. Thank you.

The purpose of this open letter is to share with you my observations from ground level in Iowa, to let you know what I am seeking in a presidential candidate, and to pose some questions I hope you will each consider including in your communications.

I know the Soviet Union had rule by gerontocracy. But this is ridiculous.

Yes, yes, it’s fourteen months before the Iowa Caucuses, and so much can happen during that time. But the new Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom had me reeling. It concluded that most caucus-intensive Democrats prefer as their favorite 2020 presidential candidates Joe Biden and Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — with a combined age of 222.

Quipped former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, “It appears we’re going to have an old-folks’ home.”

A little more than a year before Iowa Democrats will start the process of selecting a challenger to face President Donald Trump, Selzer & Co has polled likely Democratic caucus-goers for the Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom. Brianne Pfannenstiel wrote up the key findings from the survey of 455 Iowans “who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses.”

The toplines were not surprising, but I was baffled by some of the choices on which candidates to include.

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Janet Petersen has not assigned State Senator Nate Boulton to serve on any committees during the 2019 legislative session. In a written statement released on December 7, Petersen said, “I will defer making any committee assignments for Senator Boulton until the Senate Ethics Committee completes its ongoing investigation into the complaint filed against him.” In that complaint, filed last month, Sharon Wegner alleged sexual misconduct occurring in 2015, when Boulton was a candidate for the legislature.

Much of the legislature’s work happens in committees, so Petersen’s action will significantly limit Boulton’s ability to influence bills next year.

The move also indicates that Democratic leaders are unlikely to ask Boulton to lead the opposition to high-profile Republican bills during Senate floor debate, as happened several times in 2017 and 2018.

City sidewalks, small-town sidewalks
Dressed in ‘lection day style
In the air there’s a feeling
of Caucus . . .

Yes, the crispness in the air . . . the shortening of days . . . the Black Friday sales . . . they can mean only one thing: Iowa caucus season is right around the corner.

Iowa’s senior Senator Chuck Grassley will become the president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate when Congress reconvenes in January, and junior Senator Joni Ernst will join the Republican leadership team for the first time.

Two years before the 2020 Iowa caucuses, U.S. Representative John Delaney of Maryland is already investing heavily in reaching voters here. Delaney visited Iowa for the first time within weeks of announcing his presidential candidacy last July. This past weekend, he made his sixth swing through the state, attending events in Cedar, Dubuque, Clinton, Clayton, Delaware, Jackson, and Scott counties.

Most Iowans will be introduced to Delaney through his television commercials. His debut ad aired during the Super Bowl in the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, and Sioux City markets. The second spot began running on February 5 as “part of a million-dollar, month-long Iowa television buy,” according to a campaign news release. I enclose below videos and transcripts of both commercials.

Hundreds of Democratic activists have already heard Delaney at a meet and greet or local party event where he was a featured speaker. I recorded his speech at the Third Congressional District Hall of Fame dinner last October. The second part of this post contains the sound file and a transcript of key passages.

Finally, I asked Delaney to react to some activists’ concern that a sharper focus on issues white working-class voters care about could make Democratic candidates less committed to other stances, which are critically important to segments of the party’s base.

Guest author Dan Guild has closely followed American presidential polling and elections for decades. -promoted by desmoinesdem

Consider three quotes: “It’s the economy, stupid”–James Carville, 1992

“Events dear boy, events”–Attributed to British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan

“That the prince must consider, as has been in part said before, how to avoid those things which will make him hated or contemptible… It makes him hated above all things, as I have said, to be rapacious, and to be a violator of the property and women of his subjects, from both of which he must abstain.”–Machiavelli, The Prince, 1513

I cannot prove Machiavelli had Donald Trump in mind when he wrote those words 500 years ago. But the polling is consistent (we will explore it in a later post) – after his first year Trump is one of the most hated politicians in American history.

This was true on election day in 2016, when only 38 percent had a favorable impression of him, the lowest rating any major presidential candidate has received since exit polling began. He did not get the typical boost most presidents get after being elected. His numbers have not improved despite what by some indications is a good economy. In fact, about 75 percent of polls taken since May 2017 find his approval rating within 3 points of his favorable rating in the election day exit.

So the question must be asked: can anything change the public’s impression of Donald Trump?

“I am done with being a candidate,” Hillary Clinton told CBS “Sunday Morning” anchor Jane Pauley in an interview aired on September 10. “But I am not done with politics because I literally believe that our country’s future is at stake,” she added.

The unequivocal statement is welcome, even though I don’t know any admirer of Clinton who thought she was planning another presidential bid.

Only 27 percent of Iowans support the Senate Republican proposal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey. By a 20-point margin, respondents said Senator Joni Ernst “should fix and improve our current health care law” rather than “continue trying to pass the Republican plan to repeal and replace it” when Congress goes back to work after the July 4 recess.

Those numbers reflect answers given before respondents had heard any negative messages about specific provisions in the Better Care Reconciliation Act, which Senate leaders hope to bring up for a vote soon.

It was a busy week in Iowa politics, as state lawmakers raced the clock before the first “funnel” deadline on Friday. With few exceptions, non-appropriations bills not yet approved by at least one Iowa House or Senate committee are no longer eligible for consideration during the 2017 legislative session. For roundups of which bills are alive and dead, see James Q. Lynch’s story for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and the Des Moines Register article by William Petroski and Brianne Pfannenstiel. Bleeding Heartland covered the demise of the “personhood” bill here.

Some bills that didn’t clear the funnel may be attached to appropriations bills later. Republican State Senator Brad Zaun hopes to revive a medical cannabis proposal that way, Tony Leys reported for the Des Moines Register.

I enclose below Iowa Senate Minority Leader Rob Hogg’s post-funnel list of the “dirty dozen” bills that Democrats are most focused on blocking during the remainder of the legislative session.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome. I’d especially appreciate tips on newsworthy comments from today’s legislative forums around the state. A Democrat in Muscatine asked State Representative Gary Carlson this morning whether he had any evidence of election fraud and whether he would acknowledge that the Republican voter ID proposal is a voter suppression bill. Carlson told her, “I just want the right people to vote.” Probably more honest than he meant to be. John Deeth explained the latest disenfranchising provisions House Republicans want to attach to Secretary of State Paul Pate’s bill, now named House File 516.

Final note: although it was sunny and unseasonably warm today in Des Moines, only about 100 people showed up for the “Spirit of America” rally by the Capitol building. A much larger crowd came to the Capitol on a very cold Thursday in February to march against President Donald Trump’s “Muslim ban” and immigration executive orders. An estimated 26,000 turned out for the Iowa Women’s March at the same venue on a Saturday morning in January.

UPDATE: Added after the jump side by side photos of the Women’s March and today’s event. SECOND UPDATE: A reader sent me his photo (taken by a drone) of the crowd at the Capitol for the “Day Without Immigrants” rally on Thursday, February 16. Added below.

Zaun was the first speaker to the pro-Trump audience today, and he noted (accurately) that he was the first Iowa Republican elected official to endorse Trump for president. He didn’t mention that he had previously declared himself “110 percent behind” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, whose campaign flamed out months before the Iowa caucuses. On caucus night, Trump finished third in the Senate district Zaun represents, behind Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

UPDATE: Past and future presidential candidate Martin O’Malley was back in central Iowa on March 4, attending a fundraiser for State Senator Nate Boulton, among other events. O’Malley’s 2016 presidential campaign had a strong organization on the east side of Des Moines, which is part of Boulton’s district. The former governor of Maryland has visited Iowa regularly since the election, including stops in Davenport to support the special election campaigns of Jim Lykam for the Iowa Senate and Monica Kurth for the Iowa House.

Since election day, I’ve spoken with many Iowa Democrats and have observed many conversations and debates on social media. People process grief in different ways. Some Democrats are still bogged down in arguments over who is to blame (e.g. centrist or “establishment” Democrats, the FBI director, political journalists). Some are despairing over how Republicans will use total control over state government to destroy safety net programs and erode civil rights. Some have already moved on to pondering how we can create a stronger statewide party, and how Democrats could mitigate the harm Congressional Republicans will be able to inflict on Americans.

I applaud the forward-thinking people who are preparing for the tasks ahead. At the same time, I’m concerned that many Democrats haven’t absorbed the long-term consequences of what happened here on November 8.

For decades, politically-engaged Iowans have enjoyed the attention that comes with being first in the nominating process and a swing state later in the year. Our popular vote tracked closely to the national popular vote margin in six straight presidential elections. Both major-party nominees campaigned here and paid for field networks to get out the vote, with collateral benefits for down-ticket candidates.

We need to recognize that during the next couple of election cycles, we will likely be on our own.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack plans to move back to Iowa after President Barack Obama’s term ends, according to Radio Iowa’s summary of his remarks on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program. Vilsack has served in Obama’s cabinet from the beginning and said he’s not interested in continuing to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture if Hillary Clinton is elected president in 2016. He wants to move back to Iowa and might teach at a university, but he doesn’t want to become the University of Iowa’s next president. O.Kay Henderson reports that Vilsack is open to running for office again someday.

“You know, you never want to say never,” Vilsack said. After disappointing losses in 2014, the Iowa Democratic Party is in the midst of a rebuilding process and Vilsack seems personally committed to the effort. “It’s going to require a lot of work and it’s going to require all hands on deck,” Vilsack says. “And it’s going to require making sure that we are competitive and getting the message out and working in all 99 counties.”

How many Iowa Democrats would like to travel back in time two years and talk Vilsack into running for Tom Harkin’s Senate seat? There’s no doubt in my mind that even in a Republican landslide year, Vilsack could have beaten Joni Ernst. If he agreed to take her on in 2020 (a potentially tougher race because Ernst will be the incumbent), Vilsack would be nearly 70 years old.

Governor Terry Branstad came back to his old job after twelve years–would Vilsack run for governor in 2018? He would be well positioned beat Kim Reynolds or Bill Northey (who appear to be the two most likely GOP nominees), but I don’t see Vilsack going back to that job.

If Representative David Young wins re-election to Iowa’s third Congressional district in 2016, some Democrats would probaby try to recruit Vilsack to run against him in 2018. But a U.S. House seat in the minority caucus probably wouldn’t sound appealing. My best guess is that Iowans will not see Tom Vilsack’s name on a ballot again. What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers?