Without question, this past week was good for the future of the Iowa caucuses. State Senator Kent Sorenson was pressured to resign after a special investigator found probable cause that he lied about evading Iowa Senate rules against being paid by presidential campaigns. Thanks to improved coordination between the Republican Party of Iowa and Iowa Democratic Party, the 2014 off-year caucuses will be held simultaneously, as usual. Both developments should take ammunition away from critics who point to potential cheating during the Iowa caucus process.

Now it’s up to Iowa lawmakers to prevent corruption or the appearance of corruption from undermining our state’s role during the 2016 presidential race.  

New surveys by Public Policy Polling indicate slight leads for an unnamed Democratic candidate against Republican incumbents Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04). The generic Democrat’s lead over Latham increased after respondents were told Latham “supported the government shutdown.”

UPDATE: Added a press release from King’s challenger Jim Mowrer at the end of this post.

It’s time for a new post on how Iowa’s representatives in the U.S. House and Senate are handling the ongoing shutdown of non-essential federal government operations. (Click here for details on Congressional votes and Iowa political reaction up to October 1.)

Thousands of Iowans who work for the federal government or serve in the National Guard still have no idea when they’ll receive their next paycheck. The best news I’ve heard all week is that an estimated 66,000 Iowa women and children who receive benefits through the WIC program will get their checks for October, at least.  

Although there has been no progress toward an agreement on a continuing spending resolution, I’ve noticed one big change in Iowa Congressional voting during the last few days. Whereas Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) were sticking with most of their fellow Democrats in earlier votes on federal spending, this week both Braley and Loebsack have joined House Republican attempts to fund the federal government in bits and pieces. Follow me after the jump for more details.

State Senator Kent Sorenson’s resignation will force a special election in Iowa Senate district 13. The two sides of this Senate seat are House district 25, represented by two-term Republican Julian Garrett, and House district 26, represented by first-term Democrat Scott Ourth. I asked Ourth whether he would consider running in the special election. He responded,

“I am flattered and honored that so many of my neighbors and friends have asked me to consider a bid for the Iowa Senate seat vacated today by Senator Kent Sorenson.  I did not run for a seat in the Iowa House of Representatives to use it as a launch pad for higher office.  The people of House District 26 placed their trust in me in the 2012 election, and I intend to represent them to the best of my ability. The voters of this district elected me to be their voice, and to advocate for them in the Iowa House.  Hence, I will continue my work as an Iowa State Representative, working to create jobs, improve education, support agriculture, and give voice to our seniors, veterans, and children.”

John Deeth speculated about some possible candidates from both parties yesterday. Perhaps Mark Davitt, who lost his Iowa House seat to Sorenson in 2008, will take a shot at the special election. As for the Republicans, the Warren County GOP has plenty of ambitious tea party types, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Garrett stay in his Madison County-based House district. I doubt Jodi Tymeson would leave her new position as commandant of the Iowa Veterans Home in the hope of joining the minority caucus in the Iowa Senate.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I’ve posted a map of Senate district 13 after the jump. As of October 1, the district contained 13,293 registered Democrats, 15,013 Republicans, and 15,909 no-party voters.

UPDATE: Speaking by telephone on October 3, Garrett told me he is thinking about running in the special election but hasn’t made a decision yet.

State Senator Kent Sorenson resigned this afternoon after special investigator Mark Weinhardt filed a damning report with the Iowa Senate on Sorenson’s conduct. Iowa Senate ethics rules don’t allow senators to receive payment from political action committees, but Weinhardt found probable cause that money from political action committees supporting presidential candidate Michele Bachmann flowed to Sorenson indirectly by way of consulting firms. The first volume of the report is available here. Weinhardt also discussed “deeply suspicious” wire transfers and a check Sorenson received from a Ron Paul presidential campaign official.

Speaking to the Des Moines Register today, both Sorenson and his attorney Ted Sporer insisted that the senator never lied, because he was a subcontractor, not an employee of Bachmann’s campaign.

Senate Ethics Committee Chair Wally Horn announced plans to convene a meeting of that committee next week. Later this afternoon, Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix said in a statement, “Today, I called for Senator Sorenson’s resignation, and he agreed to do so effective immediately.”

While looking for Dix’s full statement on the Iowa Senate Republicans website, I was amused to see photos of Sorenson scrolling across the front page, featuring “latest news” from May 28. Apparently no one involved with the Senate GOP caucus has figured out how to keep the website up to date since Dix fired their key communications staffer in May. For fun and for posterity, I took a screen shot that I’ve posted after the jump.

Sorenson’s resignation opens up Republican-leaning Senate district 13. I haven’t heard yet about any candidates from either party planning to run for that seat in 2014. UPDATE: John Deeth speculates on possible candidates for the special election in that district. I think Iowa House Democrat Scott Ourth will stay in House district 26 rather than run for the Senate seat.

UPDATE: O.Kay Henderson posted the e-mail Sorenson sent to his constituents today. I’ve enclosed the relevant portion below. He accuses his opponents of conducting a “straight-up political witch hunt” against him because he tried to remove Iowa Supreme Court justices from the bench. What ever happened to personal responsibility?

Governor Terry Branstad announced yesterday that Matt Hinch will start work as his new chief of staff on October 14. A short bio of Hinch is in the press release I’ve posted after the jump. He has worked as a Congressional and campaign staffer to U.S. Representative Tom Latham, chief of staff to Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, and most recently as a lobbyist for the Greater Des Moines Partnership.

Hinch’s connections with the partnership made me wonder whether he might open the governor’s mind regarding proposed passenger rail service between Chicago and Omaha. Branstad has long opposed allocating state funds to match a federal grant for passenger rail. Like many business groups, the Greater Des Moines Partnership has supported state funding for the rail project as part of its legislative agenda. But probably I am raising false hopes; interviews Hinch gave last year suggest that rail wasn’t on his radar as an issue to press on behalf of the partnership. Moreover, Hinch’s former boss Latham has historically been hostile to funding alternate modes of transportation, including passenger rail. Hinch’s former boss Paulsen works for a trucking company and adamantly opposes state funding for passenger rail.

Branstad’s legal counsel Brenna Findley has served as interim chief of staff since Jeff Boeyink left last month to start work as a lobbyist. She’s more qualified to run the governor’s office than she is for her current position, so I thought she might become the next permanent chief of staff. Perhaps she is gearing up for a second bid to become Iowa’s attorney general. Running for statewide office is a full-time job.

State Representative Walt Rogers announced on Simon Conway’s WHO radio show this afternoon that he will seek the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district. After the jump I’ve posted today’s announcement, along with a September 24 press release about staff hiring by the exploratory committee Rogers established a few weeks ago.

Rogers is the third declared Republican candidate in IA-01, after Steve Rathje and Rod Blum. Former State Senator and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate sounds ready to join the race soon, and former State Representative Renee Schulte is considering it. The eventual GOP nominee will probably go into the general election as a slight underdog. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, the first Congressional district contains 162,238 active registered Democrats, 136,263 Republicans, and 193,958 no-party voters.

Rogers’ decision creates an open seat in Iowa House district 60, covering parts of Cedar Falls and Waterloo. I considered Rogers the favorite to be re-elected in 2014, but an open-seat race could be more competitive. President Barack Obama carried Iowa House district 60 in last year’s general election, but Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage there. Iowa politics-watchers expect Matt Reisetter, the GOP nominee in Senate district 30 last year, to seek the open seat in House district 60. My understanding is that at this time, Rogers’ 2012 Democratic nominee Bob Greenwood is not planning to run for the state legislature again.

When you’re planning a political comeback, this isn’t how you want to make news:

The Des Moines Register says Tony Bisignano, a Democrat, acknowledged his mistake and took responsibility for his action.

A police report says the 61-year-old was arrested at 12:38 a.m. Monday in Altoona. The report says his blood alcohol level was 0.099 percent.

Bisignano has been arrested for operating while intoxicated twice before, most recently 12 years ago.

Former State Senator Bisignano was the first Democrat to declare in Iowa Senate district 17, which Jack Hatch is vacating to run for governor. He faces a likely three-way primary against Ned Chiodo and Nathan Blake. The strong partisan lean of this district means that the primary winner will almost surely succeed Hatch.

An embarrassing number of Iowa state legislators have been arrested for drunk driving, on both sides of the aisle. Former State Senator Jeff Lamberti was even elevated to head the powerful Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission shortly after his OWI last year. So I wouldn’t consider today’s news to be a game-ender for Bisignano in the Democratic primary. Still, it can’t be helpful for him to have a third arrest of this kind on his record.

On the plus side, today was probably the best day in months for a candidate to dump some unflattering news. This story will be overshadowed by the federal government shutdown and the opening of the state health insurance exhanges.

The 2014 fiscal year began at midnight. Congress is ringing in the occasion with the first partial federal government shutdown since the mid-1990s. The U.S. House and Senate have been unable to agree on a continuing spending resolution, because most House Republicans insist on defunding or delaying the 2010 health care reform law as a condition of funding most government operations.

Details on Iowa Congressional votes on budget resolutions are after the jump, along with comments from all the Iowans in Congress and many of the candidates for U.S. House or Senate.

Authorization for most federal agricultural programs also expired at midnight, and it’s not clear when Congress will be able to agree on a short-term extension or a new five-year farm bill. Toward the end of this post I’ve enclosed some comments on the failure to pass a farm bill.

Echoing results from Quinnipiac’s Iowa poll in July, the latest statewide survey by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register shows that Iowans generally approve of Governor Terry Branstad’s work but feel he “has been in office long enough.”

This week the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council endorsed Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon for Congress. After the jump I’ve enclosed the full statement from the group, which cited Vernon’s hard work to ensure “that the Building Trades played a key role in the rebuilding of Cedar Rapids” after the 2008 flooding. According to the press release, “The Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council represents 18 building trade unions and 15,000 members in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridor.” It’s not clear how many of those members live in Linn County or other parts of IA-01. Johnson County (containing Iowa City) is in Iowa’s second Congressional district.

Vernon is one of five Democrats seeking the nomination in the open first Congressional district. To my knowledge, this is the first organized labor endorsement for anyone other than State Representative Pat Murphy. Seven labor groups have backed the former Iowa House speaker so far. On September 16 Muphy’s campaign announced endorsements from the Retail Wholesale & Department Store Union (RWDSU) Local 110 in Cedar Rapids, the Great Plains Laborers’ District Council, and Teamsters Local 120. In the summer, Murphy received the backing of AFSCME Council 61, the Communications Workers of America Iowa State Council, Operating Engineers Local 234, and the Dubuque Letter Carriers Local 257.  

With the end of the third quarter approaching on September 30, many Congressional candidates have been sending out fundraising appeals. I’ve enclosed below the latest e-mail blast from Vernon’s campaign, which features former State Senator and U.S. Senate candidate Jean Lloyd-Jones. It hammers on what will likely be a central theme for Vernon as the Democratic primary heats up: her record of getting things done.

After laying the groundwork over the last couple of months, Richard Gilmore formally launched his campaign in Iowa Senate district 39 today. He is the first Democratic candidate in what will likely be among the most competitive Iowa Senate races in 2014. Gilmore previously ran for Washington County supervisor in 2012.

After the jump I’ve posted a map of the district and Gilmore’s announcement, containing background information. As of September 2013 (pdf), Iowa Senate district 39 contained 13,323 registered Democrats, 13,340 Republicans, and 16,276 no-party voters. Two candidates are seeking the Republican nomination for the open seat: Michael Moore and Royce Phillips. Longtime Johnson County GOP activist Bob Anderson is considering the race but has not announced his decision, to my knowledge. UPDATE: Anderson filed papers as a candidate for state Senate in September.

Via John Deeth’s blog I learned that former Republican State Representative Ross Paustian announced plans last week to run for the Iowa House again in 2014. Paustian fell short in his 2008 challenge to Democratic State Representative Elesha Gayman. When she did not seek re-election in 2010, he defeated Democratic opponent Sheri Carnahan by more than 1,500 votes. Former Democratic State Senator Frank Wood defeated Paustian last year by more than 700 votes, despite being outspent heavily during the campaign. In fact, Wood was the only Iowa House Democratic candidate who won in 2012 despite having unanswered television commercials run against him.

Wood confirmed this morning by telephone that he plans to seek re-election in House district 92. His rematch against Paustian will likely be among a dozen or so races that determine control of the Iowa House in 2015 and 2016. Neither party has a strong voter registration advantage. As of September 2013, House district 92 contained 6,563 registered Democrats, 5,993 Republicans, and 9,813 no-party voters. President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in the district by roughly 54 percent to 45 percent. On the other hand, midterm election year turnout often favors Republicans.

Given Paustian’s success in 2010, I expect House GOP leaders to invest heavily in recapturing this seat. As a “fifth-generation farmer and past president of the Scott County Farm Bureau and Scott County Pork Producers,” Paustian should receive plenty of conservative interest group funding too.

Wood has strong ties in the community as a former mayor of Eldridge and an associate principal at North Scott High School. He is also a district director in one region of the Iowa High School Athletic Directors Association and a past “Athletic Director of the Year” for the Mississippi Athletic Conference. This year Wood served as the ranking Democrat on the Iowa House Agriculture & Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee.

A detailed map of House district 92 is after the jump. The redistricting plan adopted in 2011 only slightly changed the configuration of the district, which covers part of Davenport, several rural townships in western Scott County, and the towns Eldridge, Blue Grass, and Walcott.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee held a special meeting by telephone this evening. Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson posted the audio from the conference call for those who want to listen to the whole thing. The important news:

1. The Iowa GOP will hold their 2014 off-year caucuses on Tuesday, January 21, in sync with the Iowa Democratic Party. Republican leaders had preferred a Saturday morning date, which Democrats opposed because it would diminish turnout and conflict with some religious observances. Breaking the tradition of holding both parties’ caucuses simultaneously would have opened the door to Iowans caucusing with both parties. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Scott Brennan welcomed the decision in a written statement I’ve posted after the jump.

2. The Iowa GOP’s 2014 state convention will be held on June 14, as originally planned before party leaders tried to move the date to July. Republican Senate candidates, elected officials, and many party activists had warned that a late convention could give an advantage to Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Braley.  

Both of tonight’s decisions are rebukes for state party chair A.J. Spiker, who had faced calls to resign from at least two State Central Committee members and one county party committee. In a stunning bit of revisionist history, Spiker told the Des Moines Register that as far as the state convention scheduling goes, “The earlier the better. I’ve always wanted June, too.” Sorry, no.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley announced on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program today that he plans to run for re-election again in 2016.

“I like serving Iowans. I enjoy my work. I feel very good about being able to do the job and there’s a lot to accomplish.”

Iowa’s other Senator – 73-year-old Tom Harkin, a Democrat – is currently in his fifth term and no other state has more seniority in the senate. Harkin announced this past January that he would not seek a sixth term in 2014, sparking speculation that would pressure Grassley to retire as well, but Grassley told reporters Harkin’s looming exit had the opposite effect.

“You get a lot done with seniority,” Grassley said. “I think that if Iowa is going to start over two years from now with two very junior senators, that it would hurt Iowa’s opportunity to get things done in the United States Senate.”

I have to wonder whether the race for Harkin’s seat has been weighing on Grassley’s mind. The Iowa GOP has so far produced a cluttered field of Senate candidates with low name recognition. None of the early candidates raised a significant amount of money during the second quarter of the year. The fundraising potential of State Senator Joni Ernst remains to be seen, but she comes across as programmed with her “mother, soldier, and conservative” shtick. Likely candidate Mark Jacobs can self-fund but may be dead in the shark-infested GOP primary waters with his $3,000 contribution to Arlen Specter a few months after Specter gave Democrats their 60th Senate seat. The field is so uninspiring that Bob Vander Plaats of all people is thinking about the race.

If the Iowa GOP can’t field a strong Senate candidate in a midterm election year, where turnout often favors Republicans, how would they do trying to replace Grassley in a presidential year?

Iowa’s senior senator would be 89 years old by the end of his seventh term if re-elected in 2016. Grassley ran six miles on September 17 to mark his 80th birthday this week, and also possibly to pre-empt any questions about his physical health.  

The Republican field in Iowa’s open first Congressional district may soon expand to five candidates, matching the number of contenders on the Democratic side. Cedar Rapids-based Steve Rathje and Dubuque-based Rod Blum have been campaigning around the district for months. State Representative Walt Rogers of Cedar Falls just formed an exploratory committee, which usually leads to a full-blown campaign. During the past week, former State Senator, Cedar Rapids Mayor, and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate has indicated in interviews with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and The Iowa Republican blog that he is ready to run. I’ve posted some of his comments after the jump.

Former State Representative Renee Schulte, also of Cedar Rapids, has been encouraged to run by many fellow Republicans, including Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson. She served two terms in the Iowa House before losing her seat last November to Art Staed, the Democrat she had defeated in 2008. Speaking by telephone on September 18, Schulte told me she expects to decide on a Congressional campaign by the end of this month. She has been talking with people all over the district, not only in Linn County. She added that her decision will not rest on whether Rogers or Pate are running, but on whether she has the “bandwith” to go forward with a campaign.

On paper, Pate is the best Republican candidate by far, having the most experience as a legislator and the best electoral track record. The big question is whether he could be portrayed as too moderate in a GOP primary. For example, as a state senator from 1989 through 1994, Pate probably voted for some spending bills opponents might pick apart now, such as health and human services budgets including limited Medicaid funding for abortions. Rivals may criticize some city projects linked to Pate’s time as mayor of Cedar Rapids from 2002 through 2005.

Schulte strikes me as a potentially strong contender too. I’ve been thinking all year that Republicans would do well to nominate a woman with strong ties in Linn County, the largest of the 20 counties in IA-01. Clearly Schulte and Pate would have a better chance in the primary without the other one helping to split the Linn County vote. It will be interesting to see whether any of Rathje’s steering committee members jump ship in the coming months. Rogers, Pate and Schulte are all likely to raise substantially more money than Rathje and Blum have for their campaigns so far.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

A few months ago, Iowa Department of Public Health Director Mariannette Miller-Meeks confirmed that she is considering a third Congressional campaign against Representative Dave Loebsack (D, IA-02). I am becoming more and more convinced that she will enter the Republican primary, where she would face State Representative Mark Lofgren.

Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker is facing a new challenge to his leadership, thanks to his disastrous handling of the 2014 GOP state convention scheduling. The first prominent Iowa Republican to call for Spiker’s resignation was David Kochel, a former senior adviser to Mitt Romney. But Kochel’s often out of sync with Iowa GOP leaders these days, as a public supporter of marriage equality.

During the past week, two members of the GOP’s State Central Committee have said it’s time for Spiker to go. Jamie Johnson and David Chung spoke out on Simon Conway’s WHO talk radio show on September 13. Chung fleshed out his argument at his Hawkeye GOP blog a few days later. I’ve posted excerpts from that piece after the jump. Chung makes clear that he doesn’t have the votes on the central committee to oust Spiker, nor does he expect Spiker to resign before his term is up. But he makes a compelling case, placing the “convention debacle” in the context of a “general leadership style that is absolutely tone-deaf to any input from outside [Spiker’s] inner circle.”

Remember, the Iowa GOP was named one of the country’s seven “most dysfunctional state parties” before the State Central Committee meeting where a motion to set the state convention for July 2014 passed with little discussion.

State Senator Jack Hatch’s entry to the governor’s race opens up a safe Iowa Senate seat for Democrats in Polk County. This morning Assistant Iowa Attorney General Nathan Blake announced his candidacy in Iowa Senate district 17. Blake’s campaign is on the web, Facebook, and Twitter. I’ve posted his press release after the jump, along with a map of the district and the latest voter registration numbers there.

This race is likely to be one of the most interesting primary battles in Iowa next year. Blake will face two warhorses of Democratic politics on the south side of Des Moines. Lobbyist and former State Representative Ned Chiodo confirmed by telephone this morning that he will also run in Senate district 17. He will formally announce his campaign at a later date. Former State Senator Tony Bisignano became a candidate in this district months ago and immediately locked down a major labor union endorsement.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

State Senator Jack Hatch made his candidacy for governor official in Des Moines this morning, en route to campaign stops in five other Iowa cities. A few days ago, State Representative Tyler Olson sought to build momentum by revealing a long list of state lawmakers who support his gubernatorial campaign.

After the jump I’ve posted Hatch’s announcement, the full list of Iowa House and Senate Democrats backing Olson, and a few thoughts on the big question each candidate will have to answer before next June’s primary.

Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker tried this week to end discussion over the unpopular decision to schedule the state GOP convention for July 2014. However, he was forced today to acknowledge that the State Central Committee cannot ignore criticism from a growing number of elected officials, GOP candidates, and even central committee members.

State Representative Walt Rogers inched closer to a Congressional bid in Iowa’s open first district, telling a group of Delaware County Republicans last night that he is forming an exploratory committee. Speaking to journalist Mike Wiser, Rogers said he would evaluate his potential to raise money, adding that each of his Iowa House colleagues in IA-01 have “encouraged me to run.” The following Iowa House Republicans represent parts of this Congressional district: Speaker Kraig Paulsen, Brian Moore, Lee Hein, Quentin Stanerson, Sandy Salmon, David Maxwell, Dawn Pettengill, and Josh Byrnes.

Bleeding Heartland recently posted background on Rogers here. I doubt fundraising will be a problem for him. Not only did he raise more than the average state lawmaker for his 2012 re-election bid, he has national connections. In fact, Rogers just returned from the GOPAC Emerging Leaders Summit in Tennessee. The two declared Republican candidates in IA-01, Steve Rathje and Rod Blum, are not powerhouse fundraisers.

Assuming Rogers runs for Congress, his main competition in the GOP primary will probably be Blum. He narrowly lost the 2012 primary to establishment favorite Ben Lange and is organizing around the district, including in Rogers’ home base of Black Hawk County. Blum would likely paint Rogers as a compromiser and opportunist, like he described Speaker Paulsen. Although Rogers wouldn’t bring as much baggage into this race as Paulsen might have done, he may be vulnerable to similar attacks as a member of the Iowa House Republican leadership team.

I am seeking comment from two Republicans in Linn County who are said to be considering the IA-01 race as well: former State Representative Renee Schulte and Paul Pate, a former state senator, Cedar Rapids mayor, and Iowa Secretary of State.

Side note: if Rogers runs for IA-01, both parties are likely to target the vacant Iowa House district 60 in Cedar Falls and Waterloo. While Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage there, no-party voters are the largest group, and President Barack Obama carried House district 60 in last year’s general election.

UPDATE: Added the official announcement from Rogers after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: According to James Q. Lynch of the Cedar Rapids Gazette, Pate will enter the IA-01 primary field soon.

Iowa House Republicans failed in 2011 and again last summer to curtail Medicaid coverage of abortions in this state. A compromise passed near the end of this year’s legislative session gave the governor power to determine whether the state should reimburse abortion providers for certain Medicaid cases. However, administrators at the University of Iowa Hospitals in Iowa City have apparently let Governor Terry Branstad off the hook: the hospital no longer bills Medicaid for the handful of abortions that might be eligible for coverage.

Follow me after the jump for background and more details on the current policy.

Wapello County Supervisor Steve Siegel is kicking off his campaign in Iowa Senate district 41 today with “ice cream social” events in Bloomfield (Davis County), Keosauqua (Van Buren County), Fairfield (Jefferson County), and Ottumwa (Wapello County). I’ve posted his campaign announcement after the jump, along with a map of Senate district 41.

Siegel is challenging first-term GOP State Senator Mark Chelgren, a top target for Democrats hoping to hold and if possible expand their 26 to 24 Iowa Senate majority. Chelgren’s victory by 10 votes over a Democratic incumbent in the Ottumwa-based district was among this state’s most shocking 2010 election results.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. The latest voter registration numbers from the Secretary of State’s office indicate that Senate district 41 contains 15,203 registered Democrats, 11,572 Republicans, and 13,634 no-party voters.

Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum is running an aggressive campaign for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district. Instead of waiting for Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen to announce his expected candidacy, Blum went to Paulsen’s home-town newspaper to denounce him as an “opportunist” and “career politician.”  

With Paulsen out of the picture as a Congressional candidate, speculation has turned to State Representative Walt Rogers of Cedar Falls. (Blum has support from the “Liberty” wing of the Republican base, but many people in the GOP are looking for an alternative to him or Cedar Rapids-based businessman Steve Rathje.) Rogers has said he’s analyzing the IA-01 race. I am seeking comment on his plans and will update this post if I hear back from him.

Meanwhile, Blum’s campaign announced the creation of a Black Hawk County Steering Committee last week. I’ve posted the press release after the jump, including the names of more than two dozen steering committee members. Black Hawk County is the second-largest by population in IA-01, and Rogers would presumably need to do well in his home base to win the GOP nomination. Blum is better-known to Republican activists around the district, having nearly beaten establishment favorite Ben Lange in the 2012 primary to represent IA-01.

UPDATE: Justin Bartlett of Rogers’ Iowa House campaign responded to my request for comment, saying that Rogers “is still strongly considering a Congressional run.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee signaled today that Staci Appel will receive “early financial communications, operational and strategic support” in her campaign against ten-term Republican incumbent Tom Latham. The former state senator is one of nine new candidates added to the DCCC’s “Jumpstart” program for recruits the committee considers “standouts.”

Appel will be heavily favored in the IA-03 Democratic primary against Gabriel De La Cerda. Any Democrat will have an uphill battle against Latham, who tends to outperform the top of the Republican ticket and can raise money easily as a House Appropriations subcommittee chairman. The National Republican Congressional Committee is watching this race closely and has already added Latham to its incumbent protection program.

Any comments about the IA-03 race are welcome in this thread. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office indicate that the district contains 157,431 active registered Democrats, 164,289 Republicans, and 157,968 no-party voters.

Elected officials in both parties welcomed Governor Terry Branstad’s decision this week to bring back Larry Noble as Iowa Department of Public Safety commissioner, but some important questions about Brian London’s disastrous tenure have yet to be answered.

Several members of Congress from Iowa spoke out about potential U.S. intervention in Syria last week, and Bleeding Heartland sought comment on the issue from the declared Congressional candidates. News clips and the statements I’ve received so far are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. Note: most of the comments enclosed below came before President Barack Obama confirmed on August 31 that he will seek Congressional authorization for a strike on Syria. (He never sought approval for military action in Libya two years ago and he believes he has “the authority to carry out this military action [in Syria] without specific congressional authorization”.)

I am 100 percent convinced that both the House and the Senate will approve the use of force in Syria, perhaps after revising the administration’s first draft, which “is not particularly constrained.”  

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I am no expert on foreign policy or the Middle East, but my gut feeling is that military intervention will not accomplish anything good in Syria. It’s a “tall order” to “mount a limited, targeted, and effective strike that will indeed deter Assad without drawing the United States deeper into the ongoing civil war, causing unacceptable unintended consequences.” By the way, former State Department official William Polk wrote the most interesting analysis I’ve read so far about the situation there.  

State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald confirmed today that he has decided against running for governor next year.

“Democrats have three good candidates out there and I look to running on the ticket with any one of them,”  Fitzgerald told Radio Iowa.

He says there wasn’t any one particular thing that made him decide not to run for governor. “I think it was a combination of things and it boiled down to I can serve the State of Iowa better as state treasurer,” he says.

Fitzgerald is the country’s longest-serving state treasurer and will be heavily favored for re-election in 2014. He defeated Republican challenger Dave Jamison by approximately 53 percent to 47 percent despite the massive GOP landslide of 2010.

State Representative Tyler Olson and former State Representative Bob Krause are already running for governor, and State Senator Jack Hatch plans to kick off his gubernatorial campaign with events in several cities on September 17.

Governor Terry Branstad will be shopping for a new chief of staff for the first time since the 1990s. Jeff Boeyink announced today that he is stepping down for an unspecified private sector job, effective September 6. After many years with the conservative advocacy group Iowans for Tax Relief, Boeyink briefly served as executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa before leaving to manage Branstad’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign. After the 2010 election, Boeyink co-chaired the governor’s transition team, and he has served as chief of staff ever since.

I’ve posted the press release from the governor’s office after the jump. Note the careful mention of Branstad’s “potential” re-election bid, and the conspicuous effort to mention Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds’ name and title as often as possible. The governor’s re-election campaign has engaged in similar branding of the Branstad-Reynolds “team,” fueling rumors in some circles that Reynolds will become the last-minute gubernatorial candidate next spring.

The Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs listed some possible successors to Boeyink. The governor’s legal counsel Brenna Findley used to serve as Representative Steve King’s chief of staff before she ran for Iowa attorney general in 2010. David Roederer has long been in Branstad’s inner circle and now heads the Iowa Department of Management. Former Iowa GOP staffer Chad Olsen is currently chief of staff for Secretary of State Matt Schultz. Michael Bousselot has been advising Branstad on health care and other issues. Sara Craig was state director of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in Iowa before the 2012 caucuses. Matt Hinch has held many political jobs and is now senior vice president of government relations and public policy for the Greater Des Moines Partnership. I can’t imagine that Doug Gross would want to go back to the job he held nearly 30 years ago. Former Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn is busy with his new consulting and lobbying firm.

Despite growing calls for him to resign, Republican State Senator Kent Sorenson signaled yesterday that he will fight a new ethics complaint based on alleged payments from Ron Paul’s presidential campaign. The Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs reported that Peter Waldron plans to file a second complaint with the Iowa Senate, claiming that Sorenson worked with Paul campaign officials “to solicit and conceal compensation” for himself and others. Waldron is a political consultant who worked for Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign. Earlier this year, he filed complaints against Sorenson with the Federal Election Commission as well as with the Iowa Senate.

Documents and audio recordings published by The Iowa Republican blog indicate that intermediaries negotiated with Paul campaign officials on Sorenson’s behalf, and that Sorenson later received a big check from a Paul campaign manager. But Sorenson’s attorney Ted Sporer told the Des Moines Register that the charges are “gibberish.”

Sporer confirmed [Dimitri] Kesari, against Sorenson’s wishes, surreptitiously handed Sorenson’s wife a check drawn on a retail business’s bank account. But the check is still in Sorenson’s possession, he said.

“It has never been cashed,” Sporer said. “Obviously we can show it’s never been cashed. And an uncashed check is simply an autograph.”

Three weeks ago, Sporer told a Minneapolis Star-Tribune reporter, “There was no money that changed hands. There was no direct or indirect payment from the Ron Paul campaign.”

The Iowa Senate Ethics Committee won’t be able to punt this time, but it may take months to investigate the new charges. Meanwhile, I haven’t heard of anyone planning to challenge Sorenson in the GOP primary to represent Iowa Senate district 13. If I were a Republican in Warren or Madison County, I’d have started looking for a more viable candidate months ago.

A growing number of rank and file Iowa Republican lawmakers are ready to see State Senator Kent Sorenson exit the political stage as soon as possible. While legislative leaders have remained silent on the issue, yesterday State Senator Brad Zaun and State Representative Clel Baudler both called on Sorenson to resign over allegations that he solicited and received payments in exchange for ditching Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign for Ron Paul.  

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee meetings rarely make news, but two proposals approved on August 24 could affect next year’s elections.

UPDATE: Added Governor Terry Branstad’s reaction at the end of this post.

SECOND UDPATE: Added reactions from Senator Chuck Grassley and several of the GOP candidates for U.S. Senate.

Democrats on the south side of Des Moines may not have a competitive race to replace Kevin McCarthy in House district 33, but they’ll still be at the center of an exciting primary in Iowa Senate district 17. Former State Senator Tony Bisignano is already running in the district State Senator Jack Hatch currently holds, and former State Representative Ned Chiodo is leaning toward running. Assistant Iowa Attorney General Nathan Blake confirmed by telephone this week that he is also exploring a candidacy in Senate district 17, pending Hatch’s decision on whether to run for governor. Given that Hatch recently hired Grant Woodard to manage his exploratory committee and already ran a television commercial criticizing Governor Terry Branstad, I doubt there’s any realistic chance Hatch will seek another term in the Iowa Senate in 2014.

Blake has worked in the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General’s Office since 2011. He originally moved to Des Moines out of law school and, after a few years in private practice, worked on Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in Iowa in 2007 and 2008. Blake then served as special assistant to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary for Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services Kevin Concannon.

Assuming Hatch runs for governor, the Senate district 17 Democratic primary could become an interesting generational battle between Bisignano and Chiodo, two war horses of the south side, and Blake, a relatively fresh face on the scene. Young professional Chris Diebel opted to run for the Des Moines City Council instead of for this Senate seat.

State Representative Pat Murphy announced yesterday that he has received the Communication Workers of America Iowa State Council’s endorsement as a Congressional candidate in Iowa’s first district. According to a press release I’ve posted after the jump, the CWA Iowa State Council approved the endorsement at a regional conference on August 19. Murphy’s campaign held off on spreading the news until August 20, the same day State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic made her Congressional campaign official. Incidentally, the president of CWA Local 7110 is Francis Giunta, longtime chair of Murphy’s Iowa House campaigns and his preferred candidate the last time Dubuque had an open Iowa House district. Chuck Isenhart defeated Giunta in the 2008 Democratic primary for that seat.

The CWA Iowa State Council is the fourth labor union to endorse the former Iowa House speaker in IA-01. With an estimated 4,500 members statewide, including retirees, it’s not nearly as large as AFSCME Iowa Council 61, which backed Murphy earlier this summer.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. At this point I consider Murphy the front-runner in the five-way Democratic primary. He has raised enough money to run a credible district-wide campaign, even if he doesn’t end up with the largest war chest. Three women candidates may split the votes of Democrats who want to make history with this election. Three candidates from the Cedar Rapids area will compete for support in the district’s most populous county. Labor activists will be helpful as Murphy tries to get out the vote before next June’s Democratic primary. If no candidate wins the primary outright with at least 35 percent of the vote, a district convention will select the nominee. Murphy has become acquainted with a huge number of activists in northeast Iowa during his long career in the state legislature. Furthermore, labor unions can provide the organization to get sympathetic county delegates elected at the precinct caucuses in January, and district delegates elected at the county conventions next spring.

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is visiting Iowa today. As the keynote speaker at the Iowa Federation of Labor Convention in Altoona, he will highlight Democracy for America‘s work on state legislative races. DFA’s “Purple to Blue” program “is a national, multi-year effort to win state House and Senate chambers across the country by making so-called ‘purple’ state legislative seats decisively Democratic.” That is a hugely important political project, and I am pleased to learn that Iowa is one of the states Democracy for America will be targeting.

Some national news reporters will view Dean’s travel schedule as a sign of renewed presidential aspirations, especially since he plans to give a health care policy speech in New Hampshire next month. Dean told the Des Moines Register today that he is supporting Hillary Clinton for president “at this point.” Even if Clinton doesn’t run for president again, I would be surprised to see Dean take another shot at the presidency. But admittedly, stranger things have happened.

How about a new thread on the Iowa caucuses? The off-year caucuses in 2014 could be extremely important on the Republican side. The U.S. Senate nomination could be decided at a statewide GOP convention, if no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June primary. Furthermore, supporters of Governor Terry Branstad will need to focus on electing delegates at the precinct, county, and district levels, if rumors of an attempt to replace Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds on the ticket are accurate.

Democrats in the first Congressional district have extra incentive to turn out supporters for the 2014 caucuses as well, in case none of the five declared candidates in IA-01 wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the primary.

As for the next presidential-year caucuses, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was the featured speaker at the north Iowa Democrats’ “Wing Ding” event in Clear Lake last Friday. She indicated that she is not interested in running for president and even joked that Minnesota supplies the country with vice presidents. If Hillary Clinton does not run for president again, Klobuchar is one of several Democratic senators who might join the race.

Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts visited the Iowa State Fair on Sunday with his wife, Iowa native Gail Huff. He wants to know if there is substantial support for his “brand of leadership and Republicanism.” I can hardly imagine a worse fit than Brown for Iowa Republican caucus-goers.

Speaking of which, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey signed a bill banning so-called gay conversion therapy for minors in his state. That intrusion on parental decision-making will be a deal-breaker for social conservatives.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, the new darling of the Iowa Republican base, has released his birth certificate to show that he is eligible to run for president. He will also renounce his dual Canadian citizenship.

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, my early pick to win the 2016 Iowa caucuses, previewed his future case against GOP members of Congress who may become rivals for the presidential nomination.

Following up on this post, I’ve been looking through the list of 1,040 county co-chairs for Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign. Many former state lawmakers and most of the current Republicans in the Iowa legislature signed on in their home counties. I would expect all the sitting GOP legislators to cooperate with the Branstad campaign, because down-ticket candidates stand to benefit from a strong showing for the governor next November. However, four of the 24 Iowa Senate Republicans and fourteen of the 53 Iowa House Republicans have not signed on.

Follow me after the jump for details on which legislators signed on as Branstad-Reynolds volunteers and which are conspicuously absent. I have a few theories about why some people ended up in each group, but some choices surprised me.

UPDATE: Some of the absent names may simply have been unable to respond to the governor’s campaign in time to be included in today’s release. For example, Iowa House Majority Whip Chris Hagenow contacted me to clarify that he is co-chairing the Branstad-Reynolds campaign. I will continue to update this post as needed.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign revealed today that it has recruited 1,040 county co-chairs, including multiple volunteers in every county. I’ve posted the official announcement below. You can view the full list of Branstad-Reynolds co-chairs here (pdf). The campaign plans to line up chairs in every Iowa precinct.

This show of organizational force will cement the conventional wisdom that Branstad is favored to win a sixth term, assuming he seeks re-election. It may also fuel rumors in some Iowa Democratic circles that the governor is planning to stand aside for Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. The deliberate branding of “Branstad-Reynolds,” which Bleeding Heartland discussed here, is apparent in today’s press release. Every testimonial from a county co-chair mentions the “governor and lieutenant governor” as a unit, as well as both Branstad and Reynolds by name.

The governor and lieutenant governor have made fourteen joint public appearances in the last two weeks alone. That’s consistent with the Branstad administration’s pattern in recent months but a departure from the traditional role of Iowa’s lieutenant governors, who have largely handled events the governor doesn’t have time to attend. Some Democrats believe that Reynolds is being groomed to step in as the candidate.

If Branstad bows out shortly before the filing deadline next March, an organization with more than 1,000 volunteers could easily collect enough signatures for Reynolds to qualify for the ballot as a gubernatorial candidate. In contrast, other Republicans would be hard-pressed to collect at least 3,654 valid signatures spread across at least ten counties on short notice.

I still believe Branstad will run for re-election, barring some catastrophic health event. Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- An alternate rumor has Branstad planning to resign in the middle of his sixth term, turning the office over to Reynolds. Perhaps for that reason, some conservative Republicans are plotting to try to replace Reynolds on the ticket at next summer’s statewide convention, according to longtime political reporter Mike Glover. Branstad told reporters today, “We’re not afraid of any challenge” to Reynolds for the lieutenant governor slot.